RICE OUTLOOK August 13, 1998 August 1998, RCS-0598 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: This release replaces the earlier release of this date. The fourth headline after the MONTHLY HIGHLLIGHTS section has been revised. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1998 U.S. rice crop is projected at 177.7 million cwt (rough basis), down 6 percent from last month's projection, the result of a lower yield. o The 1998 U.S. crop yield is projected at 5,576 pounds per acre, down 6 percent from last month's trend-based forecast and more than 5 percent below a year earlier. o The 1998/99 forecast season-average price range is $9.25 to $10.25 per cwt, up 75 cents on both the low and high end from last month, primarily the result of the smaller crop. o The 1998/99 U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 12.6 percent, down from 15.5 percent projected a month earlier and 13.1 percent a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 23.8 million cwt, a 21 percent decrease from last month's projection--a result of smaller supplies--and almost 5 percent below a year earlier. o World rice production in 1998/99 is projected at a record 386.3 million tons (milled basis), 1.6 million tons below last month's projection, but 1.6 million tons larger than the 1997/98 crop. China accounts for the bulk of the month- to-month decrease. o World trade for 1999 is projected at 20.2 million tons-- unchanged from last month, but 14 percent below this year's revised 23.6 million-ton record. The year-to-year decrease is primarily due to lower projected imports by Indonesia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. U.S. 1998 RICE YIELD PROJECTED DOWN MORE THAN 5 PERCENT The 1998 rice crop is projected at 177.7 million cwt, down 6 percent from last month's projection and 1.2 million cwt less than 1997. The month-to-month revision is due to a 6-percent drop in projected yield to 5,576 pounds per acre. All of the year-to-year production drop is for medium grain--projected down 18 percent. The long grain crop is projected up 7 percent. This is the second year in a row of yields that have declined from the 1996 record of 6,121 pounds. The August yield forecast was the first for this season to be based on in-the-field surveys. Several factors account for the decline in average yield from 1997. First, a cold, rainy spring substantially delayed plantings in California. Second, extremely hot, dry weather has been hanging over much of the southern rice belt, with some areas reporting drought. The lack of rain and rapid evaporation are raising water and irrigation costs and reducing the availability of surface water. Extreme heat can cause blanking and reduced milling yields. Finally, some plantings shifted from high yielding California rice to the lower yielding southern long grain. The year-to-year decrease in crop size came despite planted area. The June Acreage report indicated total planted area at 3.215 million acres, up 5 percent from 1997. The increase was due to relatively high prices for rice compared with virtually all alternative crops--most importantly soybeans, and to a lesser degree, feed grains and wheat--at planting. Long grain planting was reported at 2.504 million acres, up 225,000 acres--and nearly tied with the 1981 record. Medium grain was reported at 689,000 acres, down 70,000 acres--and the smallest since 1989. The decline in medium grain plantings was evenly split between California and the South, while all long grain expansion was in the South. Short grain plantings were reported up 4,000 acres to 22,000--the largest in a decade--partly a result of expanding sales to Japan. Yields were reported lower in all States except Texas. California has a projected yield of 7,700 pounds per acre--down 7 percent from a year earlier--a result of extremely late plantings. Late- planted rice often has more weed, disease, and insect problems than earlier-planted rice. Louisiana's yield is projected at 4,200 pounds, down 9 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1983. Mississippi's yield is projected at 5,400 pounds, down 7 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1995. Arkansas's yield is projected at 5,500 pounds--nearly 3 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1992. For Missouri, the 1998 yield is projected at 5,100 pounds, a 4 percent drop from 1997. Yields in Texas are reported at 5,600 pounds, while up 100 pounds from last year, the projected yield is still 596 pounds below the 1996 record. The poor performance southern yields is largely the result of very hot dry weather this summer. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the expansion in area, with plantings up 12 percent to 1.54 million acres, just barely below the State's 1981 record. All of the increase is for long grain; medium grain is down 9 percent. Louisiana posted a 40,000-acre increase to 590,000, with long grain accounting for all of the increase. Missouri's rice plantings were reported at a record 130,000 acres, up 14 percent from 1997--with long grain accounting for all the expansion. In contrast, Mississippi--which grows only long grain--reported plantings at 220,000 acres, down 9 percent from 1997. And Texas, which has seen rice acreage steadily drop since 1980, reported area at 255,000 acres, down 2 percent from 1997. All of the decrease in Texas was for long grain, which accounts for the bulk of the plantings. Weak prices and severely delayed plantings are behind a 6-percent drop in California's rice plantings to 480,000 acres. All of California's drop was for medium grain, which accounts for about 95 percent of the State's rice area. The largest production decrease is projected for California. That State's crop is expected to drop 13 percent to 36.8 million cwt--a result of both lower area and yield. Mississippi's crop is projected to drop 15 percent to 11.8 million cwt, the smallest since 1987--a result of both lower yield and area. Louisiana's crop is projected at 24.7 million cwt--almost 3 percent below a year earlier--a result of the severe drop in yield. In contrast, Arkansas's rice crop is projected at a record 83.9 million cwt, 8 percent larger than the 1997 crop. The record Arkansas crop is due to substantial acreage expansion. Missouri's crop is projected to rise almost 10 percent to 6.3 million cwt--solely due to larger plantings--the second largest on record. The Texas crop is projected at 14.2 million cwt, just a fraction above the 1996 crop. The pace of the 1998/99 rice crop is ahead of last year and the 5-year average. As of August 9, two-thirds of the crop had headed, ahead of 61 percent last year and a 63-percent average. However, harvesting is still in its early stage across most of the South and has not begun in California. As of August 9, 9 percent of the crop had been harvested, ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Harvest had begun only in Texas--29 percent complete--and Louisiana--34 percent complete. Both States were well ahead of a year ago and their 5 year-averages. Total U.S. supplies for 1998/99 are projected at 212.7 million cwt, down 5 percent from last month's forecast--a result of the smaller crop--and more than 1 percent smaller than a year earlier. Imports are projected at 10 million cwt, up 200,000 from a year earlier and even with the 1996/97 record. Carryin remains projected at 25 million cwt, 8 percent below a year earlier. U.S. EXPORTS PROJECTED TO DROP IN 1998/99; DOMESTIC USE TO RISE U.S. exports in 1998/99 are projected at 80 million cwt--5 million below last month's forecast and 4 million smaller than in 1997/98. Rough rice exports remain projected at 23 million cwt, second only to the 1997/98 record of 26 million cwt. Brazil has already bought more than 300,000 tons of U.S. rough rice for delivery in 1998/99. Milled rice exports are projected at 57 million cwt, down 5 million from last month's projection and 1 million below the 1997/98 revised level. In recent years the U.S. has faced increasing price competition in international markets for milled rice from Asian exporters. Total U.S. use in 1998/99 is projected at 188.9 million cwt, down 3 percent from last month's forecast--a result of the lower exports--and 1 percent below a year earlier. Total domestic use remains projected at 108.9 million cwt, up almost 2 percent from a year earlier. Food use--which accounts for all of the expansion in domestic use--remains projected at a record 84 million cwt, up 2 million from a year earlier. Brewers' use remains projected at 15.4 million cwt, unchanged from the past 2 years. Seed use remains projected at 4 million cwt. Ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 23.8 million cwt, 21 percent below last month's projection--a result of the smaller crop--and 5 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 12.6 percent, down from 15.5 percent projected last month and slightly below last year's 13.1 percent. MEDIUM/SHORT GRAIN CROP TO DROP FROM 1997; LONG GRAIN CROP UP The 1998/99 long grain crop is projected at a record 130.4 million cwt, down almost 4 percent from last month's forecast but 7 percent above a year earlier. Carryin is projected at 9.8 million tons, 2 million below last month's projection and 30 percent below a year earlier. Total supplies are projected at 149.2 million cwt, down almost 5 percent from last month's projection but up more than 3 percent from year earlier. Total long grain use is projected at 133.9 million cwt, down 1.1 million from last month as exports were lowered 3 million cwt to 63 million and domestic and residual was raised 1.9 million. Ending stocks are projected at 15.3 million cwt, 28 percent below last month's forecast but 56 percent larger than a year earlier. The long grain ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11.4 percent, below last month's projection of 15.8 but above a year earlier's 7.3 percent. The combined medium/short grain crop is projected at 47.3 million cwt, almost 12 percent below last month's forecast and 17 percent smaller than a year earlier. Carryin is projected at 14.3 million cwt, up 2 million from last month and 18 percent higher than a year earlier. Imports remain unchanged from a year earlier. Total supply is projected at 62.6 million cwt, down 6 percent from last month's projection and 11 percent below a year earlier. This is the smallest medium/short grain supply since 1991/92. Domestic use is projected at 38 million cwt, down 5 percent from last month's forecast and 3 percent below 1997/98. Exports are projected at 17 million cwt, down 2 million cwt from last month's projection and even with a year earlier's revised level. Ending stocks are projected at 7.6 million cwt, down slightly from last month's projection and 47 percent below a year earlier. This would be the lowest level of medium/short grain stocks in at least 16 years. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.8 percent, little changed from last month but 46 percent below a year earlier. For the 1997/98 crop, long grain exports were raised 2 million cwt to 67 million and medium/short grain lowered 2 million to 17 million cwt. The export revisions were based on shipments data. Ending stocks were adjusted to reflect the change in exports. 1998/99 SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE The 1998/99 U.S. season-average farm price is projected to range from $9.25 to $10.25 per cwt, up 75 cents on both the high and low end from last month's projection--a result of the smaller crop. For 1997/98, the season-average farm price remains estimated at $9.65, just 3 percent below 1996/97's $9.96, which was the highest since 1980/81. Last month, USDA estimated July's midmonth price at $9.50 per cwt and lowered June's to $9.51 from a preliminary $9.74. Industry sources reported long grain prices at around $9.50 to $9.90 per cwt in the Delta in late July and early August, although marketings were small. The California medium grain market is even quieter. During most of the 1997/98 market-year farm prices for California medium grain were at least $1.50 less per cwt below quotes for southern long grain and have shown no significant strength since the start of the current market year. A major factor behind the relatively strong long grain prices in 1997/98 was the record level of U.S. rough rice exports. Rough rice exports are estimated to have been 26 million cwt in 1997/98, up 1 million from last month's projection and more than double a year earlier, with Latin America accounting for all of the increase. Rough rice exports are projected to have accounted for a record 31 percent of total U.S. rice exports in 1997/98. Several factors account for the expansion. First, weather- related difficulties affected crops in several Latin American countries, resulting in much greater imports. Second, many Latin American countries prefer to import rough rice instead of milled rice to better utilize milling capacity. They typically apply a lower tariff to rough rice imports than milled rice. The United States is one of very few rice exporting countries to allow rough rice exports. In fact, no major Asian rice exporter ships any significant quantities of rough rice. In contrast to the record pace of rough rice exports and sales, milled rice exports and sales were slightly behind a year earlier through July 30. Combined medium and short grain account for the slow pace of milled rice exports. As of July 30, medium and short grain milled exports and sales were 22 percent behind a year earlier while long grain milled exports and sales were almost 13 percent ahead. THAI EXPORT PRICES REMAIN STEADY Thai export prices for most grades of rice have generally been flat since June, the combination of continued large purchases by Indonesia and Iran and a weak baht. International prices have generally been supported by tight exportable supplies. Several factors account for the tightness in supplies. First, Vietnam-- which had halted making additional sales in April and May--set a maximum export quota of 600,000 tons for July through September to prevent over bookings until supplies from its summer-autumn crop became available. Second, Pakistan is sourced out of rice until its new crop becomes available in October and November. Finally, China's exports have been disrupted by severe flooding in July and early August . Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $334 per ton for the week ending August 4, virtually unchanged from a week earlier but down slightly from late June and early July. Prices averaged about $337 in June and July, $328 in May, and $326 in April. Prices were barely over $300 per ton in February and March. International prices began to strengthen in late 1997 when Indonesia and the Philippines began purchasing large quantities of rice in response to production difficulties. Through July, Indonesia had purchased 4.5 million tons, mostly from Thailand and Vietnam. The Philippines has purchased well over 1.5 million tons, mostly from China, Vietnam, and Thailand. Vietnam's rice prices strengthened slightly in late July--$5 to $10 per ton for 15-percent brokens and higher quality. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens averaged $315 per ton in early August and late July, up from $300 in July and in June. The recent rise in Vietnamese prices is due to continued buying from Indonesia and the Philippines. Vietnam devalued its currency in early August. At the time its prices were nearly the same as Thai prices for comparable qualities. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston) have remained at $408 per ton since dropping from $419 in March. The substantial premium over Thai price for comparable grades has prevented any upward pressure on U.S. long grain milled prices. While high by historical standards, the U.S. price premium over Thai rice has steadily narrowed since December. In early August the premium was $74 per ton, up slightly from June and July. This summer the premium has been the lowest since early 1997. The premium had been as high as $158 in November and $144 in December when the Thai price reached its recent bottom, but it narrowed when the Thai price strengthened. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of U.S. exports to the Western Hemisphere, where Thailand competes in few markets. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, 100 pound bags, f.o.b. Sacramento) have remained at $397 per cwt since early June after rising from $386 in March, following sales to Turkey. Medium grain milled prices had shown no prior price strength in 1997/98, a result of a record California crop and little buying interest beyond Japan's minimum access purchases and some sales to regular buyers such as Turkey and Jordan. Japan has agreed to purchase 608,000 tons (milled basis) in 1998/99 (April-March) under the WTO minimum access agreement, up from 530,000 tons in 1997/98. The U.S. has supplied 50 percent of Japan's minimum access imports since 1995/96. GLOBAL 1998 PRODUCTION REVISED DOWN For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at a record 386.3 million tons (milled basis), down 1.6 million from last month's projection, but 1.6 million tons larger than 1997/98's revised crop. World consumption is projected to be a record 388.6 million tons, up slightly from last month's projection and more than 1 percent above a year earlier. With consumption exceeding production by nearly 2.4 million tons, ending stocks are projected to decline to 49.8 million tons. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 12.8 percent, down from 13.6 a year earlier and low enough to make prices sensitive to any crop shortfall in a major consuming or producing country. China accounts for the bulk of the reduction from last month's production forecast. China's 1998 crop was revised down 1 percent to 138 million tons, as both area and yield were lowered due to severe flooding in July and early August in southern China. In addition, Spain's crop was lowered 30,000 tons to 560,000 due to reduced area. Taiwan's crop was lowered 42,000 tons to just over 1.4 million due to excessive rains that cut the first crop yield. In contrast, Egypt's crop was revised up 495,000 tons to 3.45 million due to a slightly higher yield and a substantial increase in the milling rate. Thailand's crop was revised up 200,000 tons to a record 14.8 million as area was raised in response on expectations of strong prices. Italy's crop was revised up 110,000 tons to 950,000 due to area and yield increases. The year-to-year production increases are primarily due to expectations of a return to normal weather in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Indonesia will account for the bulk of the year- to-year. Indonesia's crop is projected to rise 2.1 million tons from 1997/98 to 33 million due to greater area and slightly higher yields. The crop would still be slightly below the record 33.2-million-tons in 1995/96. Bangladesh is projected to produce a record 19-million-ton crop, up 775,000 tons as area and yield both rebound. The Philippines, whose revised 1997/98 crop was down more than 11 percent, is projected to produce a 7.15- million-ton crop, up 11 percent but still below the 1996/97 record. Higher area and yield are behind the larger crop. Several exporters are projected to produce larger crops in 1998/99. Vietnam is projected to produce 18 million tons of rice, up 200,000 from 1997/98 and tied with the 1996/97 record, a result of slightly higher area. Pakistan's crop is projected to rise slightly to a record 4.4 million tons on expectations of higher yields. Italy's crop is up 5 percent from 1997, a result of expanded area. Although not posting an increase, India's crop is projected at a record 83.5 million tons--steady with 1997/98-- a result of a slight area expansion and return to trend yields. In Latin America, Brazil's crop is projected at 6.66 million tons, up 15 percent as area and yield rebound from this year's weak crop. The region's principal exporters, Argentina and Uruguay, are expected to produce larger crops. Argentina's 1998/99 crop is projected at 815,000 tons, up 39 percent from 1997/98's flood-damaged crop. Both area and yield are projected higher. Uruguay is projected to produce a 680,000 ton crop, up 13 percent, with both area and yield rebounding from severe flood damage this year. Ecuador is projected to produce 480,000 tons, up 180,000 as both area and yield rebound from severe flood damage. Guyana, a small exporter, is projected to produce 295,000 tons, up 45,000 from this year's drought damaged crop. Panama, Paraguay, and the Dominican Republic are expected to produce larger crops in 1998/99. In contrast, smaller crops are projected for several countries. China's crop is down 1 percent from the record 140 million tons in 1997, primarily a result of smaller area. Japan's crop is projected to drop to 8.3 million tons, down 823,000 from 1997/98, as area continues to decline largely due to diversion programs. Egypt's crop is 300,000 tons below a year earlier, a result of smaller area and a lower yield. South Korea's crop is projected to drop 250,000 tons, a result of a smaller area and yield. Australia's crop is projected to drop 50,000 tons to 900,000 on expectations of a return to trend yields outweighing a small area expansion. For 1997/98, the world rice crop is projected at 384.6 million tons, up slightly from last month's forecast and more than 1 percent above 1996/97. The month-to-month revision is primarily due to a 795,000-ton increase in Egypt's crop to a record 3.75 million, a result of larger planted area and a higher milling rate. Thailand's crop was revised up 100,000 tons to a record 14.8 million based on a larger second crop, a result of good weather and higher input use. Taiwan's crop was revised up 28,000 tons to 1.47 million due to higher yields. In contrast, the Philippines' crop was lowered 250,000 tons to 6.45 million due to a smaller dry season crop. Consumption in 1997/98 is projected at 383.7 million tons, up slightly from last month's forecast and around 1 percent greater than a year earlier. China and Indonesia account for most of the month-to-month increase. Ending stocks are projected at 52.1 million tons, virtually unchanged from 1996/97, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6 percent, slightly above a year earlier. GLOBAL 1999 RICE TRADE PROJECTED TO DROP TO 20.2 MILLION TONS Global 1999 rice trade is projected at 20.2 million tons, unchanged from last month's projection but down 14 percent from 1998's revised record of 23.6 million. Trade would be the third largest on record. On a month-to-month basis, a 100,000-ton increase in Egypt's exports to 300,000--a result of the larger crop--was offset by a 100,000-ton drop in U.S. exports to 2.65 million tons. An expected return to normal weather in Southeast Asia and Latin America is behind the smaller trade forecast in 1998. Indonesia accounts for the bulk of the reduced imports. Indonesia's imports are projected at 1.5 million tons--still sizable by world standards--but down 4 million from 1998's record, a result of the larger projected crop. Similarly, the Philippines is projected to import 900,000 tons, down from 1.75 million this year as production rebounds from the reduced 1997/98 crop. Bangladesh is projected to import just 350,000 tons, down from a million in 1998--a result of a record crop. While Brazil's crop is projected to increase substantially, imports are projected to drop only 200,000 tons to 1 million. Brazil has been a sizable importer for a decade as production has not kept pace with use. Imports by several countries are projected to expand. Iran, with stagnant production, is expected to import 1 million tons, up 200,000. Guinea is projected to import 350,000 tons, up 150,000, a result of a smaller 1998/99 crop. Nigeria, one of the largest markets for parboiled rice, is projected to import 750,000 tons, up 150,000 from 1998. While Nigeria's crop is projected to post a slight increase in 1998/99, production remains well below peak levels achieved early in the decade. Iraq is projected to expand imports 100,000 tons to 700,000 as production, which accounts for only a small share of use, remains steady. China's 1999 imports are projected to rise 25 percent to 500,000 tons, mostly Thai fragrant rice for urban consumers. Finally, Japan is projected to increase imports in 1998, a result of the WTO agreement. On the export side, Asia will export less in 1999 as this year's record pace has pulled stocks down. Thailand's exports are projected at 5.7 million tons, down 300,000 from 1998. A smaller crop and rising consumption are behind a 500,000-ton drop in China's exports to 1.75 million tons. India's exports are projected to drop 1.25 million tons to 1.5 million, a result of no growth in production and expanding domestic use. Vietnam's exports are projected to marginally drop to 3.5 million tons from this year's record 3.6 million. Some stock rebuilding is behind Pakistan's projected drop in exports to 1.75 million tons, a 250,000-ton decrease. Australia is projected to export 625,000 tons, down 75,000 from 1998, the result of a smaller projected crop. In contrast, exports from South America will up in 1999. Argentina is projected to export 550,00 tons, up 150,000 tons from 1998. Uruguay's exports are projected to rise 75,000 tons to 600,000. Finally, Guyana is projected to post a 25,000 ton increase to 175,000. Crops in all three countries are projected to rebound from reduced levels in 1997/98. Global rice trade is projected at a record 23.6 million tons (milled) in 1998, up 1 percent from last month's projection and 25 percent higher than 1997. The month-to-month increase in exports is largely due to a 250,000-ton increase in India's exports to 2.75 million tons--based on the pace of sales to date. Egypt's exports were revised up 200,000 tons to 500,000 based on the larger 1998/99 crop. In contrast, China's exports were revised down 250,000 tons to 2.25 million due to recent flooding that is expected to slow shipments. On the import side, Indonesia is projected to import a record 5.5 million tons, up 500,000 from last month, a result of continued buying. Also, Peru's imports were raised 50,000 tons to 200,000 based on shipments to date. This report is available on the Internet at the ERS Home Page at: http://www.econ.ag.gov Note: To order printed copies of the 1997 Rice Yearbook call 1- 800-999-6779. INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 The next Rice Outlook will be available on November 12, 1998. Detailed 1998/99 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on August 14, 1998 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1995/96 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1993/94 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1998/99 Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 0 5 0 5 N/A N/A | N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.819 3.056 |3.215 Harvested | 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.799 3.034 |3.187 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,121 5,896 |5,576 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 | 25.0 Production | 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.3 178.9 |177.7 Imports | 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.8 | 10.0 Total supply | 213.2 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.3 215.9 |212.7 | | Food | 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 80.0 82.0 | 84.0 Seed | 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.0 | 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 15.4 | 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 11.6 8.2 8.3 1.3 5.5 | 5.5 Domestic use | 96.7 101.4 100.7 104.6 100.7 106.9 |108.9 | | Exports | 77.0 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 84.0 | 80.0 Rough | 5.2 3.5 17.7 10.6 12.6 26.0 | 23.0 Milled 5/ | 71.8 71.8 81.2 72.4 65.9 58.0 | 57.0 Total use | 173.7 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.1 190.9 |188.9 | | Ending | | stocks | 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 25.0 | 23.8 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 Free stocks | 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 27.2 25.0 | 23.8 | | | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 13.1 | 12.6 | | | $/cwt |$9.25 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 $9.96 $9.65 |10.25 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 72.0 | 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1995/96 to present ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 9.94 9,177 10.10 10,520 7.77 10,149 September | 9.85 12,204 10.00 13,478 8.01 11,743 October | 10.00 11,925 9.66 11,988 8.84 12,343 November | 9.71 11,191 9.41 11,768 9.21 12,941 December | 9.67 12,540 9.82 12,758 9.45 13,506 January | 9.52 13,416 9.95 15,927 9.36 13,405 February | 9.66 10,679 10.10 12,086 9.19 12,235 March | 9.55 10,474 10.20 10,133 9.20 14,690 April | 9.30 10,802 10.30 9,902 9.35 13,279 May | 9.41 10,357 10.20 7,969 9.73 11,702 June | 9.51 11,061 9.90 7,092 9.77 10,275 July | 9.50 1/ 11,257 10.10 9,421 9.81 10,782 | Average 2/ | 9.64 11,257 9.96 11,087 9.15 12,254 | Total 3/ | 9.65 4/ 135,083 133,042 147,050 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1997/98 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1997/98 is August to date only. 4/ USDA price projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================== | $/cwt August | 8.45 7.24 7.12 7.79 7.93 7.63 7.93 6.22 6.06 September | 7.89 7.39 7.24 7.66 7.89 7.60 8.02 6.30 6.13 October | 8.00 7.59 7.44 7.48 7.82 7.52 8.81 6.67 6.51 November | 8.20 7.63 7.48 7.18 7.67 7.37 8.47 6.82 6.63 December | 8.34 7.71 7.56 7.25 7.71 7.41 8.17 7.16 6.95 January | 8.76 7.80 7.67 7.54 7.74 7.48 8.11 7.19 7.13 February | 9.41 7.88 7.72 7.72 7.67 7.53 7.90 7.49 7.67 March | 9.50 7.86 7.70 7.43 7.59 7.45 7.97 7.38 7.55 April | 9.80 7.91 7.76 7.14 7.26 7.12 7.68 7.25 7.42 May | 8.79 7.81 7.63 8.38 7.21 7.10 7.38 7.17 7.35 June | 9.17 7.91 7.74 8.51 7.11 7.00 7.64 7.42 7.60 July | 9.22 7.92 7.75 2/ 8.58 6.93 6.83 7.79 7.82 8.01 | Average 3/| 8.79 7.72 7.57 2/ 7.71 7.53 7.33 7.99 7.07 7.08 ============================================================================== 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 | Country |Outstand-| | or |ing sales| Exports | 1996/97| 95/96 94/95 93/94 92/93 region |7/30/98 | 7/30/98 | Final | Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 51.8 | 321.5 342 | 417 474 362 391 Other Western Europe | 2.7 | 17.0 16 | 19 22 17 22 Turkey | 20.1 | 114.8 202 | 187 259 67 191 Eastern Europe | 0 | 0.1 4 | 34 58 10 46 Former Soviet Union | - | 2.3 23 | 37 18 4 15 JAPAN | 0.2 | 249.9 212 | 192 2 568 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 46.0 | 183.1 315 | 344 525 347 438 Iran | 0 | 0 0 | 72 191 121 130 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 43.6 | 96.0 168 | 130 153 157 205 Jordan | .1 | 41.5 22 | 56 62 1 33 Syria | 0 | 10.9 25 | 1 28 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 4.2 | 170.8 205 | 324 257 257 315 South Africa | - | 67.3 114 | 147 113 90 111 Cote d'Ivoire | 0 | 30.5 31 | 82 57 67 92 Ghana | 3.0 | 63.7 33 | 48 7 0 11 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 60.3 | 1,717.7 934 | 1,010 1,585 513 663 Canada | 19.5 | 106.8 109 | 107 127 91 98 Colombia | 10.2 | 297.2 34 | 28 0 0 0 Costa Rica | - | 101.8 55 | 110 65 46 18 Dominican Republic | 0 | 92.8 19 | 3 40 0 0 Ecuador | 0 | 147.8 0 | 0 0 0 0 El Salvador | .1 | 48.8 22 | 30 37 5 6 Guatemala | 0 | 25.2 32 | 31 23 5 15 Haiti | 0 | 99.8 86 | 121 148 43 117 Honduras | 8.8 | 62.6 52 | 30 29 1 2 Jamaica | 0 | 26.1 28 | 80 74 63 30 Mexico | 6.4 | 396.6 309 | 318 327 177 249 Nicaragua | 0 | 34.7 68 | 29 39 0 22 Panama | 0 | 88.2 0 | 0 0 0 0 Peru | 11.0 | 99.0 46 | 36 77 3 34 Trinidad | 2.5 | 20.5 21 | 27 34 21 34 | | | TOTAL | 205.3 | 2,777.2 2,254 | 2,564 3,201 2,149 2,075 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,740 4/| 2,500 4/| 2,790 3,723 2,521 2,673 Difference 3/ | 344 5/| | 226 522 372 598 ============================================================================== Note: U.S. Export Sales reports sales and shipments in product weight.The milled equivalent total may vary from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. 3/ "U.S. Export Sales" does not include exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1992/93 to 1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================= | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Vietnam 6/ Month | -------------------------- ---------------------------- -------- or | Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% market | grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ---------- A-1 brokens year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 | 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 | 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep '97 | 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct '97 | 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov '97 | 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 244 Dec '97 | 419 397 463 274 269 255 228 193 270 Jan '98 | 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 259 Feb '98 | 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar '98 | 410 392 445 306 284 278 235 193 280 Apr '98 | 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May '98 | 408 386 441 328 299 299 248 197 NQ Jun '98 | 408 395 441 338 315 311 256 209 304 Jul '98 | 408 397 441 337 315 304 255 211 305 | 1997/98 | 416 395 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 | Aug '98 | 408 408 441 334 319 303 258 223 315 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Quotes from industry sources. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1998/99 Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | Planted | 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.980 2.279 Harvested | 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.964 2.261 | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,380 | | Million hundredweight Beginning | stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 9.8 Production | 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.5 121.6 130.4 Imports | 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.8 9.0 Total supply | 146.4 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.3 144.6 149.2 | Domestic use 4/| 59.0 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.7 67.8 70.9 Exports | 65.8 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 67.0 63.0 Total use | 124.8 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.2 134.8 133.9 Ending stocks | 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 9.8 15.3 | | Percent Stocks-to | use ratio | 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 12.0 7.3 11.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres | Planted | 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.839 0.777 Harvested | 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.835 0.773 | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,929 7,406 | | Million hundredweight Beginning | stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 14.3 Production | 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 57.9 57.2 47.3 Imports | 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 Total supply | 64.8 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 70.4 62.6 | Domestic use 4/| 37.7 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.0 39.1 38.0 Exports | 11.2 19.6 18.6 18.1 21.9 17.0 17.0 Total use | 48.9 61.2 59.2 55.3 60.9 56.1 55.0 Ending stocks | 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 14.3 7.6 | | Percent Stocks-to | Use ratio | 32.4 16.3 26.7 25.9 19.9 25.5 13.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Million hundredweight Ending stocks | difference 1/ | 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers which are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 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