RICE OUTLOOK November 12, 1998 November 1998, RCS-0698 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. RICE OUTLOOK is supplemented by RICE YEARBOOK, an annual report. The Yearbook summary is scheduled for release on September 1, 1998. Yearbooks are available in print. For the 1998 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # RCS-1998, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1998 U.S. rice crop is projected at 180.4 million cwt (rough basis), down 1.1 million cwt from last month's projection--the result of a lower yield. o The 1998 U.S. crop yield is projected at 5,660 pounds per acre, down 36 pounds from last month's forecast and 461 pounds below the 1996 record. o The 1998/99 forecast season-average price range is $9.00 to $9.50 per cwt, a 25-cent tightening on both the high and low end of last month's forecast range. o U.S. 1998/99 rice exports are projected at 85 million cwt, up 1 million from last month's forecast and about the same as a year earlier. o The 1998/99 U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 12.7 percent, down from 13.6 percent projected a month earlier, the result of a smaller crop and larger exports. o World rice production in 1998/99 is projected at 376.6 million tons (milled basis), up slightly from last month, but down more than 2 percent from the record 1997/98 crop. World trade for 1999 is projected at 21 million tons--up 3 percent from last month's forecast, but almost 18 percent below this year's revised 25.5-million-ton record. U.S. AVERAGE YIELD DOWN 4 PERCENT FROM 1997 The 1998 rice crop is projected at 180.4 million cwt, down slightly from last month's projection but 1.5 million cwt larger than 1997. Both long and combined medium/short grain production were revised down slightly from last month. While long grain production is projected up 9 percent, the combined medium/short grain crop is projected down 16 percent from a year earlier. The year-to-year increase in crop size is due to greater planted area. The June Acreage report indicated total planted area at more than 3.2 million acres, up 5 percent from 1997. The month-to-month revision is due to a 36 pound drop in projected yield to 5,660 pounds per acre. A more than 5 percent drop in California's projected yield more than offset a small increase in the Arkansas yield. This is the second year in a row that yields have declined from the 1996 record of 6,121 pounds. Several factors account for the decline in average yield from 1997. First, a cold, rainy spring substantially delayed plantings in California. Second, much of the southern rice belt experienced extremely hot, dry weather during the early summer, with some areas reporting drought. The extreme heat likely also caused some blanking and reduced milling yields. Third, much of Arkansas and the Delta experienced excessive rains during critical harvest weeks. In addition, severe flooding hindered second-crop harvest in parts of Texas. Finally, a shift in plantings from high yielding California rice to the lower yielding southern long grain reduced average yields. Yields are reported lower in 1998 in all States except Arkansas and Texas. The most severe drop is reported for California which has a projected yield of 7,000 pounds per acre--down almost 16 percent from last year and the lowest since 1982--primarily a result of late plantings. Louisiana's yield is projected at 4,450 pounds, down 4 percent from a year earlier. Mississippi's yield is projected at 5,400 pounds, down 7 percent. For Missouri, the 1998 yield is projected at 5,100 pounds, a 4-percent drop from 1997. In contrast, Arkansas's yield is projected at 5,800 pounds--up 50 pounds from last month and nearly 3 percent above 1997. Yields in Texas are reported at 5,600 pounds, up over 100 pounds from last year but still 596 pounds below the 1996 record. The largest production decrease is projected for California. That State's crop is projected at 33.5 million cwt, down more than 5 percent from last month's forecast and 21 percent below the 1997 record. In addition to the poor yields, plantings were down 6 percent. Mississippi's crop is projected to drop 15 percent from a year earlier to 11.8 million cwt, the smallest since 1987--a result of lower yield and area. Louisiana's crop is projected at 26.2 million cwt--more than 3 percent below a year earlier--a result of the drop in yield. In contrast, Arkansas's rice crop is projected at a record 88.4 million cwt, up almost 1 percent from last month and more than 14 percent larger than the 1997 crop. The record Arkansas crop is due to substantial acreage expansion. Missouri's crop is projected to rise more than 9 percent to 6.3 million cwt--the second largest on record--the result of expanded area. The Texas crop is projected at 14.2 million cwt, about the same as 1997, as a larger yield is nearly offset by smaller plantings. Total U.S. supplies for 1998/99 are projected at 218 million cwt, down slightly from last month's forecast--a result of the smaller crop--but up 1 percent from a year earlier. Imports remain projected at a record 10 million cwt, up about 800,000 cwt from a year earlier and even with 1996/97. Carryin remains projected at 27.6 million cwt, slightly above a year earlier. U.S. 1998/99 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED TO 85 MILLION CWT U.S. exports in 1998/99 are projected at 85 million cwt--1 million above last month's forecast-- but fractionally below 1997/98. The upward revision is due to announced concessional sales of 100,000 tons to Russia and expectations of weaker medium grain sales and reduced long grain exports to the Middle East. Rough rice exports remain projected at 24 million cwt, second only to the 1997/98 record of 26.1 million. Combined exports and outstanding sales of rough rice totaled 769,500 tons by October 29, more than double a year earlier. Milled exports are forecast at 61 million cwt, up 1 million from last month's projection and 3 percent above a year earlier. Total use in 1998/99 is projected at 193.4 million cwt, up slightly from last month's forecast--a result of higher exports --and 3 percent above a year earlier. Total domestic use (excluding residual or unreported loss) is projected at a record 102.9 million cwt, down 500,000 cwt from last month's forecast but up more than 1 percent from a year earlier. Food use--which accounts for all of the expansion in domestic use--is projected at a record 83.5 million cwt, down slightly from last month's projection but still up nearly 2 percent from a year earlier. The month-to-month revision is based on analysis indicating that while domestic food use continues to grow, the pace is slower than earlier in the decade. Brewers' use and seed use remain unchanged from 1997/98. Total domestic use and residual is projected at a record 108.4 million cwt. Ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 24.6 million cwt, nearly 7 percent below last month's projection--due to the reduced crop forecast--and 11 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 12.7 percent, down from 13.6 percent projected last month and last year's 14.7 percent. This is the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 1980/81. MEDIUM PRODUCTION PROJECTED TO BE THE SMALLEST SINCE 1989 The 1998 long grain crop is projected at 132.4 million cwt, nearly 9 percent above a year earlier and second only to the 1994 record of 133.4 million . Carryin is projected at 14.3 million tons, up slightly from a year earlier. Total supplies are projected at a record 155.5 million cwt, up more than 8 percent from year earlier. Total long grain use is projected at a record 141.4 million cwt, up 1.5 million from last month as an increase in exports to 70 million more than offset a drop in domestic and residual. Ending stocks are projected at 14.1 million cwt, 14 percent below last month's forecast and almost 2 percent below a year earlier. The long grain ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 10 percent, down from 11.8 last month and 11.1 a year earlier. The combined medium/short grain crop is projected at 48 million cwt, 16 percent smaller than a year earlier. Carryin is projected at 12.3 million cwt, marginally higher than a year earlier. Imports of 1.2 million cwt remain unchanged from 1997/98. Total supply is projected at 61.5 million cwt, down slightly from last month's projection and the smallest medium/short grain supply since 1990/91. Domestic use remains projected at 37 million cwt, 13 percent below 1997/98. Extremely tight supplies of medium grain rice are likely to result in some substitution of long grain rice in several processed food and industrial uses. Exports are projected at 15 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from last month's projection and more than 3 percent below a year earlier--a result of substantially reduced supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 9.5 million cwt, up 7 percent from last month's projection but 23 percent below a year earlier. These would be the lowest medium/short grain stocks in 10 years. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 18.3 percent, up from 16.6 percent last month but below 21.1 a year earlier. 1998/99 SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE The 1998/99 U.S. season-average farm price is projected to range from $9.00 to $9.50 per cwt, a tightening of 25 cents on both the high and low end from last month's projection. This year's projection is below the $9.64 average for 1997/98 and the $9.96 in 1996/97. The 1996/97 price was the highest since 1980/81. Season-average farm prices have exceeded $9 per cwt since 1995/96, the longest stretch of relatively high prices since the late 1970's and early 1980's. Last month, USDA estimated October's midmonth price at $9.26 per cwt and lowered September's to $9.35 from a preliminary $9.40. Industry sources reported long grain rough rice prices at around $9.10 per cwt in the Delta in October and early November. In Texas, long grain prices were reported at around $9.45 per cwt. Medium grain prices were reported around $9.64 per cwt in the Delta. In California, medium grain farm prices are reported around $9.64, although sales volumes have been light. Higher prices for medium grain rice relative to long grain are due to expected tight supplies of both the southern and California medium grain rice. Behind the relatively strong long grain prices in the face of record supplies are continued record exports of U.S. rough rice. Through October 29, the U.S. had exported 453,000 tons of rough rice, with an additional 316,500 tons in outstanding sales. Extremely large sales to Brazil, totaling nearly 562,000 tons through October 29, account for the bulk of U.S. rough rice sales this year. A year earlier, combined exports and outstanding sales totaled 484,400 tons. For the 1998/99 market year, U.S. rough rice exports are projected at 24 million cwt, down just 2.1 million from the 1997/98 record. Latin America accounts for all of the recent increase. Much of the recent expansion has been due to weather-related difficulties in 1997/98 that reduced crops in several major Latin American importing and exporting countries, affecting trade in both 1998 and 1999. Two factors--both policy related--placed the United States in prime position to capture most of this expanded trade. First, many Latin American countries prefer to import rough rice instead of milled rice to better utilize milling capacity and avoid competition with domestic milled rice. They typically apply a lower tariff to rough rice imports than milled rice. The United States is one of very few countries to allow rough rice exports. In fact, no major Asian rice exporter ships any significant quantities of rough rice. Second, many Latin American countries prohibit the importation of Asian rice, which is typically priced less than domestic milled rice. Even without the 1997/98 production shortfalls, U.S. rough rice exports to the region had been on the rise since early in the decade, primarily due to rising populations, greater incomes, and stagnant or declining production in several countries in the region. Although not as dramatic rough rise, U.S. milled rice exports and sales were nearly 9 percent ahead of a year earlier through October 29. All of the increase was due to long grain sales, which were more than 23 percent ahead of a year earlier. In contrast, combined medium and short grain exports and outstanding sales were nearly 43 percent behind a year earlier. THAI EXPORT PRICES PLUMMET ON LACK OF NEW SALES Thai export prices for most grades of rice have dropped substantially since the summer, with the bulk of the drop occurring since October. An absence of major new purchases, intense competition from other exporters, and expectations of large supplies by late fall from the Thai main harvest are behind the recent collapse in Thai prices, especially for the higher quality grades. And the current price drop has occurred even with a strengthening of the Thai baht. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at just $277 per ton for the week ending November 2, down from $300 a week earlier and well below the $306 average in October and $332 in September. The price averaged $338 in June and July. In contrast to quotes for top Thai grades, prices for low quality rice--25, 35, and 100 percent brokens-- actually strengthened in September due to rising shipments, mostly to Indonesia. But in early November low quality prices dropped substantially with a dearth of new orders. Price quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have dropped as well, although not to the degree experienced by Thai rice. Vietnamese 5 percent brokens were quoted at $285 per ton in early November, down from $290 in late October and below the $305 quoted at the start of the month. Prices averaged $311 in September and $315 in August. Vietnam temporarily banned new export sales after August 15--a factor in the sliding prices--and raised taxes on exports of better grades of rice and established taxes on exports of lower grades. In October, Vietnam revoked the ban on exports, rescinded the tax increases, and established an export quota of 600,000 tons for the remainder of 1998. Vietnam's prices currently exceed quotes for Thai rice, limiting Vietnam's competitiveness because Thai rice is generally considered of higher quality. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston) have declined since the 1998/99 market year began on August. Prices are currently quoted at $386 per ton. Although up slightly from $375 in October, they are below averages of $392 in September and $401 in August. Prices had remained at $408 per ton from mid-March through mid-August. The substantial drop in Thai prices and expected large supplies of U.S. long grain rice have been major factors in the recent decline in U.S. milled prices. During the first 9 months of 1998, declining U.S. prices in the face of steady to rising Thai prices allowed the U.S. price difference over Thai prices to decline from $158 in December 1997 to an average of under $60 in September. However, the current plummet in Thai prices has pushed the difference up to over $100 per ton, limiting U.S. export opportunities in some international markets, especially the Middle East. In addition, the substantial difference over Thai prices prevents any upward pressure on U.S. long grain milled prices. In contrast to weaker prices for southern long grain rice, prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, 100 pound bags, f.o.b. Sacramento) have shown considerable strength this year. Prices are currently quoted at $452 per ton, up from $408 at the start of the market year and a $441 average in September. Medium grain prices started to rise in June, after dropping almost steadily since early 1996. Expectations of a substantially smaller 1998 crop and recent sales to Japan are behind the higher prices. WORLD RICE PRODUCTION TO DROP 2 PERCENT IN 1998/99 For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at 376.6 million tons (milled basis), up marginally from last month's projection but more than 2 percent below the 1997/98 record. World consumption is projected to be a record 385 million tons, nearly unchanged from last month's projection but up slightly from a year earlier. With consumption exceeding production by more than 8.3 million tons, ending stocks are projected to decline 16 percent to 43.4 million tons, the lowest since 1980/81. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11.3 percent, unchanged from last month but down from 13.5 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 1972/73. The Thai crop was revised up 150,000 tons to 14.95 million (milled basis) based on expected larger main crop plantings. Three major crop adjustments were made in South America. Brazil's crop was raised 136,000 tons to 6.8 million, a result of greater plantings. Colombia's crop was raised 70,000 tons to 870,000 based on both greater yield and area. Guyana's crop was revised up 50,000 tons to 345,000, entirely due to higher expected yields. Two revisions were made in Africa. Tanzania's crop was revised up 125,000 tons to 550,000 due to a major increase in plantings. Guinea's crop was raised 40,000 tons to 450,000 based on revised area data. Australia's crop was increased 95,000 tons to 875,000, primarily due to larger area. Finally, Iran's projected crop was raised 100,000 tons to 1.75 million, a result of higher expected yields. In contrast to these upward revisions, the Philippines's 1998/99 crop was revised down 250,000 tons to 6.9 million due to damage from several typhoons. Italy's crop was reduced 100,000 tons to 850,000 due to a 10 percent drop in area resulting from a poor market outlook. A lower projected yield is behind a 50,000 ton drop in Madagascar's crop to 1.65 million tons. In Central America, Hurricane Mitch is responsible for smaller expected crops. Nicaragua's crop was reduced 15,000 tons to 130,000, due to reduced area and yield. Similarly, the Honduras crop was lowered 15,000 tons to 20,000, due to a cut in yield and a one -third drop in plantings. The year-to-year decrease in the global crop is primarily due to smaller projected crops in China, India, Bangladesh, Japan, South Korea, Egypt, and Australia. Except for Bangladesh, these countries are all either major exporters--India, China, Australia, and Egypt--or, in the case of Japan and South Korea, their import levels are largely driven by WTO agreements. Thus, the more than 2-percent drop in world production will have little impact on import demand. In contrast to these smaller crops, several countries are expected to produce larger crops in 1998/99. Indonesia's crop is projected to rise almost 2.8 million tons from 1997/98's revised level to 33 million due to greater area and slightly higher yields. The crop would still be slightly below the record 33.2 million tons in 1995/96. Although the Philippines' crop was revised down, production would still be 7 percent above the drought-reduced 1997/98 crop. Higher area is behind the larger crop, although production remains below the 1997/98 record. These two importers account for the bulk of 1998's expanded trade. Pakistan's crop is projected to rise slightly to a record 4.6 million tons on larger plantings. In Latin America, Brazil's revised crop is up 17 percent from this year's weak crop due to an almost 19 percent increase in area. The region's principal exporters, Argentina and Uruguay, are expected to produce larger crops as well. Argentina's 1998/99 crop is projected at 815,000 tons, up 24 percent from 1997/98's flood-damaged crop. Both area and yield are projected higher. Uruguay is projected to produce a 720,000-ton crop, up 18 percent, with both area and yield rebounding from severe flood damage. Ecuador is projected to produce 480,000 tons, up 180,000 as both area and yield rebound from severe flood damage. Guyana, Panama, Paraguay, and Colombia are expected to produce larger crops in 1998/99. For 1997/98, the world rice crop is projected at 384.4 million tons, down slightly from last month's forecast and 4.8 million tons above 1996/97. The month-to-month decline is primarily due to a 325,000-ton drop in Indonesia's crop to 30.2 million tons, a result of lower yields caused by less fertilizer and pesticide use. In contrast, Vietnam's and Guyana's crops were revised up. GLOBAL 1999 RICE TRADE PROJECTED TO DROP NEARLY 4.5 MILLION TONS Global 1999 rice trade is projected at 21 million tons, up 3 percent from last month's projection but down nearly 18 percent from 1998's revised record of 25.5 million. Trade would be the second largest on record. China accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month export increase. China's exports were revised up 250,000 tons to 1.25 million based on aggressive sales. Japan's exports were raised 200,000 tons from last month to 400,000, a result of greater food aid to Indonesia. Guyana's exports were raised 125,000 tons to a record 300,000, a result of larger production. A larger crop was behind a 25,000-ton increase in Australia's exports to 650,000. On the import side, Indonesia's imports were raised 500,000 tons to 2 million based on a weaker 1997/98 crop. Similarly, Philippine imports are projected at 1.2 million tons, up 300,000 tons from last month, a result of the lowered 1998/99 crop. Offsetting some of the increased imports are lower projections for Iran, whose imports were lowered 150,00 tons to 650,000, a result of low oil prices. In addition, Colombia's imports are projected to drop 50,000 tons to 150,000 due to larger projected production. A larger projected crop is behind a 50,000 ton decrease in Guinea's imports to 300,000 tons. An expected return to normal weather in Southeast Asia and Latin America is behind the smaller trade forecast in 1999. Indonesia accounts for the bulk of the reduced imports. Indonesia's imports are projected to drop 3.9 million tons from 1998's revised 5.9 million. The Philippines's imports are projected to drop 1 million tons from 1998's revised 2.2 million. Bangladesh is projected to import 750,000 tons, just half of this year's 1.5 million, even though a smaller crop is projected. Brazil is projected to import 1 million tons, down 200,000. Several countries are projected to expand imports. Although revised down, Iran's imports would still be up 150,000 tons from 1998. Guinea's imports are projected up 100,000 due to a smaller 1998/99 crop. Iraq is projected to expand imports 100,000 tons to 700,000 as production remains steady. China's 1999 imports are projected to rise 200,000 tons to 500,000, mostly Thai fragrant rice. Japan is projected to increase imports in 1998, a result of the WTO agreement. On the export side, Asia will export less in 1999, a result of smaller crops in several key exporting countries. Thailand's exports are projected at 5.8 million tons, down 300,000 from 1998's revised level, a response to a smaller crop and some stock rebuilding. A smaller crop and rising consumption are behind a more than 2-million-ton drop in China's exports to 1.25 million tons. India's exports are projected to drop 1.5 million tons to 2 million, a result of smaller production and expanding domestic use. Vietnam's exports are projected to drop to 3.5 million tons from this year's record 3.6 million, a result of a marginally smaller crop. Australia is projected to export 650,000 tons, down 50,000 from the 1997 and 1998 record, the result of a smaller projected crop. In contrast, South American exports will up in 1999, a result of larger crops. Argentina is projected to export 550,00 tons, up 100,000 from 1998. Uruguay's exports are projected to rise 100,000 tons to 625,000. Guyana's record exports would up 50,000 tons. Global rice trade is projected at a record 25.5 million tons (milled) in 1998, up 2 percent from last month's projection and more than one-third higher than 1997. The month-to-month increase in exports is largely due to a 550,000-ton increase in China's exports to 3.3 million tons--based on the pace of shipments to date. Guyana's exports were revised up 100,000 tons to 250,000 due to higher production. In contrast, Thailand's exports were revised down 100,000 tons to 6.1 million--still a near-record--based on the pace of shipments to date. On the import side, Indonesia's imports were revised up 200,000 tons to 5.9 million. Imports by the Philippines were raised 200,000 tons to 2.2 million based on continued buying. Ecuador's imports were raised 20,000 tons to 50,000 tons. In contrast, Iran's imports were lowered 150,000 tons to 500,000, a result of low oil prices. This report is available on the Internet at the ERS Home Page at: http://www.econ.ag.govNote: To order printed copies of the 1998 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 Detailed 1998/99 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on November 13, 1998 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1996/97 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1993/94 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1998/99 Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 0 5 0 5 N/A N/A | N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.819 3.056 |3.215 Harvested | 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.799 3.034 |3.187 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,121 5,896 |5,660 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 | 27.7 Production | 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.3 178.9 |180.4 Imports | 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.2 | 10.0 Total supply | 213.2 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.3 215.3 |218.0 | | Food | 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 80.0 82.0 | 83.5 Seed | 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.0 | 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 15.4 | 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 11.6 8.2 8.3 1.3 1.0 | 5.5 Domestic use | 96.7 101.4 100.7 104.6 100.7 102.4 |108.4 | | Exports | 77.0 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 85.2 | 85.0 Rough | 5.2 3.5 17.7 10.6 12.6 26.1 | 24.0 Milled 5/ | 71.8 71.8 81.2 72.4 65.9 59.1 | 61.0 Total use | 173.7 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.1 187.6 |193.4 | | Ending | | stocks | 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 | 24.6 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 Free stocks | 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 27.2 27.7 | 24.6 | | | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 14.7 | 12.7 | | | $/cwt |$9.00 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 $9.96 $9.64 | 9.50 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 72.0 | 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1996/97 to present ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 10.10 10,520 September | 9.35 9,502 9.85 12,204 10.00 13,478 October | 9.26 1/ 9,328 1/ 10.00 11,925 9.66 11,988 November | 9.71 11,191 9.41 11,768 December | 9.67 12,540 9.82 12,758 January | 9.52 13,416 9.95 15,927 February | 9.66 10,679 10.10 12,086 March | 9.55 10,474 10.20 10,133 April | 9.30 10,802 10.30 9,902 May | 9.41 10,357 10.20 7,969 June | 9.51 11,061 9.90 7,092 July | 9.57 9,290 10.10 9,421 | Average 2/ | 9.19 27,983 9.64 11,093 9.96 11,087 | Total 3/ |9.00-9.50 4/ 133,116 133,042 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1997/98 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1998/99 is August to date only. 4/ USDA price projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================== | $/cwt | August | 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 7.79 7.93 7.63 September | 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 7.66 7.89 7.60 October | 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 7.48 7.82 7.52 November | 8.15 7.51 7.35 2/ 8.20 7.63 7.48 7.18 7.67 7.37 December | 8.34 7.71 7.56 7.25 7.71 7.41 January | 8.76 7.80 7.67 7.54 7.74 7.48 February | 9.41 7.88 7.72 7.72 7.67 7.53 March | 9.50 7.86 7.70 7.43 7.59 7.45 April | 9.80 7.91 7.76 7.14 7.26 7.12 May | 8.79 7.81 7.63 8.38 7.21 7.10 June | 9.19 7.91 7.74 8.50 7.11 7.00 July | 9.22 7.92 7.75 8.58 6.93 6.83 | Average 3/| 8.56 7.63 7.48 2/ 8.80 7.72 7.57 7.72 7.54 7.34 ============================================================================== 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country | 1998/99 | 1997/98 1997/98 1996/97 95/96 94/95 93/94 or | as of | as of region |10/29/98 |10/29/97 Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 127 | 140 | 324 342 417 474 362 Other Western Europe | 12 | 14 | 17 16 19 22 18 Turkey | 41 | 17 | 115 202 187 259 67 Eastern Europe | 0 | 0 | 0 4 34 58 10 Former Soviet Union | 0 | 0 | 2 23 37 18 4 JAPAN | 32 | 60 | 250 212 192 2 568 OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 90 | 84 | 183 315 344 525 347 Iran | 0 | 0 | 0 0 72 191 121 Iraq | 0 | 30 | 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan | 1 | 0 | 42 56 22 62 1 Indonesia | 26 | 0 | 0 76 15 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 52 | 38 | 96 168 130 153 157 Syria | 0 | 0 | 11 25 1 28 0 AFRICA | 76 | 78 | 171 205 324 257 258 Cote d'Ivoire | 0 | 30 | 31 31 82 57 67 Ghana | 23 | 23 | 64 33 48 7 0 South Africa | 41 | 23 | 67 114 147 113 90 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 1,009 | 550 | 1,718 934 1,010 1,585 513 Brazil | 574 | 0 | 28 1 1 368 12 Canada | 76 | 62 | 107 109 107 127 91 Colombia | 11 | 10 | 297 34 28 0 0 Costa Rica | 0 | 18 | 102 55 110 65 46 Dominican Republic | 0 | 20 | 93 19 3 40 0 Ecuador | 0 | 45 | 148 0 0 0 0 El Salvador | 26 | 53 | 49 22 30 37 5 Guatemala | 19 | 27 | 25 32 31 23 4 Haiti | 32 | 40 | 100 86 121 148 43 Honduras | 13 | 34 | 63 52 30 29 1 Jamaica | 0 | 13 | 26 28 80 74 63 Leeward & Windward I| 10 | 6 | 16 17 22 17 18 Mexico | 104 | 107 | 397 309 318 327 177 Nicaragua | 19 | 7 | 35 68 29 39 0 Panama | 0 | 59 | 88 0 0 17 0 Peru | 98 | 40 | 99 46 36 77 3 Trinidad | 11 | 3 | 21 21 27 34 21 TOTAL | 1,395 | 973 | 2,780 2,254 2,564 3,201 2,149 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,780 4/| 3,250 2,671 2,790 3,723 2,521 Difference 3/ | 427 5/| 470 417 226 522 372 ============================================================================== Note: U.S. Export Sales reports sales and shipments in product weight.The milled equivalent total varies from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. 3/ "U.S. Export Sales" does not include exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1992/93 to 1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================= | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Vietnam 6/ Month | -------------------------- ---------------------------- -------- or | Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% market | grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ---------- A-1 brokens year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 | 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 | 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep '97 | 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct '97 | 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov '97 | 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 244 Dec '97 | 419 397 463 274 269 255 228 193 270 Jan '98 | 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 259 Feb '98 | 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar '98 | 410 392 445 306 284 278 235 193 280 Apr '98 | 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May '98 | 408 386 441 328 299 299 248 197 NQ Jun '98 | 408 395 441 338 315 311 256 209 304 Jul '98 | 408 402 441 337 315 304 255 211 305 | 1997/98 | 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 | Aug '98 | 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep '98 | 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct '98 | 375 469 419 306 298 287 264 252 295 Nov '98 | 386 452 419 277 275 259 249 236 285 | 1998/99 | 388 446 429 312 302 289 262 240 302 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Quotes from industry sources. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1998/99 Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | Planted | 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.978 2.279 Harvested | 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.962 2.261 | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,380 | | Million hundredweight Beginning | stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 Production | 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.4 121.6 132.4 Imports | 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.0 8.8 Total supply | 146.4 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.2 143.7 155.5 | Domestic use 4/| 59.0 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.6 59.7 71.4 Exports | 65.8 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 69.7 70.0 Total use | 124.8 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.1 129.4 141.4 Ending stocks | 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 14.1 | | Percent Stocks-to | use ratio | 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 12.0 11.1 10.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres | Planted | 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.839 0.777 Harvested | 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.773 | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,406 | | Million hundredweight Beginning | stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 Production | 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 57.2 48.0 Imports | 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Total supply | 64.8 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.2 70.5 61.5 | Domestic use 4/| 37.7 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.1 42.7 37.0 Exports | 11.2 19.6 18.6 18.1 22.0 15.5 15.0 Total use | 48.9 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 58.2 52.0 Ending stocks | 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 9.5 | Stocks-to | Percent Use ratio | 32.4 16.3 26.7 25.9 19.9 21.1 18.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Million hundredweight Ending stocks | difference 1/ | 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers which are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 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