RICE OUTLOOK January 13, 1999 January 1999, RCS-0199 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. RICE OUTLOOK is supplemented by RICE YEARBOOK, an annual report. The Yearbook summary is scheduled for release November 1999. Yearbooks are available in print. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # RCS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Supply and demand estimates in this report reflect Crop Production 1998 Summary and Rice Stocks reports released on January 12 by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. They also reflect recently released NASS historical production and stocks revisions that appear in Field Crops: Final Estimates 1992-97. Monthly Highlights: o The 1998 U.S. rice crop is estimated at 188.1 million cwt (rough basis), up more than 4 percent from last month's projection and the second largest crop on record. o U.S. planted area in 1998 is estimated at 3.35 million acres, up 4 percent from last month's projection and 7 percent higher than 1997's revised plantings. o The 1998/99 forecast season-average price range was lowered to $8.25 to $8.75 per cwt, down 75 cents on both the high and low end of last month's forecast range. o U.S. 1998/99 rice exports are projected at 87 million cwt, up 2 million cwt from last month's forecast and about 2 percent above a year earlier. o The 1998/99 U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.8 percent, up from 12.8 percent projected a month earlier--the result of a larger crop--and a little higher than 1997/98. o World rice production in 1998/99 is projected at 377.8 million tons (milled basis), up slightly from last month, but down almost 2 percent from the record 1997/98 crop. World trade for 1999 is projected at 21 million tons down 350,000 from last month's forecast, and 21 percent below 1998's revised 26.6-million-ton record. U.S. 1998 RICE PLANTINGS ESTIMATED AT 3.35 MILLION ACRES The 1998 rice crop is estimated at 188.1 million cwt, up 4 percent from last month's projection and almost 3 percent larger than 1997's revised crop of 183 million cwt. The 1998 crop is second only to the 1994 record of 197.8 million cwt. The month-to-month revision is primarily due to a 4-percent increase in plantings. Average yield was increased fractionally. Long grain accounts for nearly all of the month-to-month production increase; combined medium/short grain production was revised down. The year-to-year increase is due to a 7-percent increase in plantings to 3.35 million acres; yields are projected down 4 percent to 5,669 pounds per acre. Area was revised up from last month in all States except Arkansas and California, where it was unchanged. All southern States reported larger rice plantings than in 1997. Mississippi accounts for the largest share of the 130,000 acre upward revision, with area rising 50,000 acres to 270,000, up 30,000 acres from 1997. Louisiana's rice plantings were revised up 32,000 acres from last month to 625,000, an increase of 40,000 from a year earlier. Texas rice plantings were raised 29,000 acres this month to 285,000, pushing Texas plantings up 25,000 acres from 1997. In Missouri, rice plantings were revised up 19,000 acres to a record 145,000, for a year-to-year increase of 23,000 acres. Arkansas rice plantings are up 140,000 from 1997. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the 220,000-acre increase in 1998 rice plantings. In contrast, California's rice plantings dropped more than 7 percent from 1997 to 480,000 acres. Average yield is estimated at 5,669 pounds per acre, up 9 pounds from last month's projection but down almost 4 percent from 1997 and more than 7 percent below 1996's revised record of 6,120 pounds. Mississippi reported the largest month-to-month yield increase. The State's yield was raised 400 pounds per acre to 5,800, unchanged from 1997. Missouri's yield was revised up 100 pounds to 5,200, a 100-pound decline from 1997. Louisiana's yield was revised up 80 pounds to 4,530, a 100-pound decrease from a year earlier. The Texas yield is projected at 5,600 pounds, unchanged from last month but 100 pounds above 1997. Arkansas's yield--projected at 5,800 pounds--is unchanged from last month but up 100 pounds from 1997. In contrast to upward revisions in several southern States, California's rice yield was revised down 160 pounds to 6,840, the lowest since 1982. Production was revised up in all States except Arkansas--which reported no change--and California, where the crop was lowered. All States except California produced larger crops in 1998. Arkansas reported the largest increase, with production climbing nearly 12 percent to a record 88.42 million cwt. Mississippi's crop is projected at 15.5 million cwt, up 32 percent from last month's projection and almost 13 percent larger than the 1997 crop. Texas rice production is estimated at more than 15.8 million cwt, up more than 11 percent from both last month and a year earlier. The Louisiana crop is projected at 28.1 million cwt, up 7 percent from last month's forecast and 4 percent larger than the 1997 crop. Missouri, the smallest rice producing State, is estimated to have produced a record 7.4 million cwt, nearly 18 percent larger than last month's forecast and a 20 percent increase from a year earlier. California's rice crop is projected at 32.7 million cwt, more than 2 percent below last month's projection and 23 percent below a year earlier, making it the smallest California rice crop since 1991. Total U.S. supplies for 1998/99 are projected at 224.7 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month's forecast--a result of the larger crop--and more than 2 percent larger than a year earlier. Total supplies are the second largest on record. Imports are projected at 9 million cwt, down 500,000 from last month's forecast and slightly below a year earlier. The month-to-month revision was based on a slower than expected pace of imports through the first quarter, especially from Thailand. Carryin remains projected at 27.7 million cwt, slightly above a year earlier. U.S. 1998/99 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED TO 87 MILLION CWT U.S. exports in 1998/99 are projected at 87 million cwt, up 2 million cwt from last month's forecast, and about 2 percent above 1997/98. The monthly revision is based on lower prices that are expected to boost U.S. long grain sales to some higher income milled rice markets, particularly in the Middle East and perhaps South Africa. All of the month-to-month increase is for long grain. Combined medium/short grain exports are reduced 500,000 cwt due to smaller supplies. Rough rice exports remain projected at 24 million cwt, second only to the 1997/98 record of 26.1 million. Milled exports are forecast at 63 million cwt, up 2 million from last month's projection and 7 percent above a year earlier, the first increase since 1994/95. Total use in 1998/99 is projected at 195.7 million cwt, up more than 1 percent from last month's forecast--a result of larger exports and a small increase in domestic use--and almost 2 percent above a year earlier. Total domestic use (excluding residual or unreported loss) is projected at a record 103.2 million cwt, up 800,000 from last month's forecast and more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Food use--which accounts for the bulk of the expansion in domestic use--is projected at a record 83.5 million cwt, up 500,000 from last month's projection and nearly 2 percent larger than a year earlier. The month-to-month revision is based on expectations of additional food use--including processed foods --due to the larger supplies and lower prices. Brewers' use remains unchanged from 1997/98 while seed use was raised 300,000 cwt to 4.3 million. While rice prices have steadily declined for more than a year, rice remains an attractive crop in the Delta, especially compared with soybeans, the primary rotation crop. Ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 29 million cwt, 18 percent above last month's projection--a result of the larger crop estimate--and 5 percent above a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than last month's projection but only a little higher than last year. LONG GRAIN PRODUCTION REACHED RECORD IN 1998 The 1998 long grain crop is projected at a record 141.6 million cwt, up almost 7 percent from last month's projection and 14 above a year earlier. The 1998 long grain crop is more than 6 percent larger than prior record in 1994. Carryin remains projected at 14.3 million tons, up marginally from a year earlier. Imports are reduced 500,000 cwt from last month to 7.8 million, slightly below a year earlier. Total long grain supplies are projected at a record 163.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from last month's projection and 12 percent larger than a year earlier. Total long grain use is projected at a record 144.1 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month and 9 percent higher than last year. Domestic use was raised 500,000 cwt from last month to a record 71.6 million and exports were increased 2.5 million cwt to 72.5 million. Ending stocks are projected at 19.7 million cwt, up 39 percent from last month's projection as the larger crop more than offset the greater domestic use and exports. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.7 percent, well above the 10 percent projected last month and 3 percentage points larger than 1997/98. The combined medium/short grain crop is projected at 46.4 million cwt, down 3 percent from last month's forecast and the smallest since 1989/90. Carryin remains projected at 12.3 million cwt, marginally higher than a year earlier. Imports of 1.2 million cwt remain unchanged from 1997/98. Total supply is projected at 59.9 million cwt, down 3 percent from last month and almost 17 percent below 1997/98. Domestic use is projected at 37.1 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last month but 16 percent below 1997/98. Exports are projected at 14.5 million cwt, down 500,000 cwt from last month's projection--a result of the smaller supplies--and more than 7 percent below a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 8.3 million cwt, down 13 percent from last month's projection and a third below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.1 percent, down from 18.3 percent last month and 20.6 percent a year earlier. These are the smallest stocks and stocks-to-use ratio for medium/short grain since supply and demand tables were first reported by grain type in 1982/83. Extremely tight supplies of medium grain rice are likely to result in some substitution of long grain for medium grain in some processed foods and industrial uses. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE PROJECTED TO DROP IN 1998/99 The 1998/99 U.S. season-average farm price is projected to range from $8.25 to $8.75 per cwt, a lowering of 75 cents on both the high and low end from last month's projection. The reduction was based on cash prices through the first 5 months of the market year, larger domestic supplies, and expectations that international prices will not rise during the rest of the market year. This year's projection is below the $9.64 average for 1997/98 and $9.96 in 1996/97. Last month, USDA estimated December's midmonth price at $9.19 per cwt and lowered November's to $8.98 from a preliminary $9.26. Industry sources have reported a softening of long grain rough rice cash prices in the South since September, with prices quoted under $9 per cwt in late December, down from just over $9 in November. Prices were quoted at almost $9.50 in early November. In contrast to softening long grain prices, southern medium grain prices have strengthened since the start of the season, with prices in the Delta reported at $9.75 in early January, up 25 cents from a month earlier. In California, medium grain farm prices were reported at more than $10 per cwt in early January, up about 50 cents from last month and nearly $1.50 higher than a year earlier. Higher prices for medium grain rice relative to long grain are due to expected tight supplies of both southern and California medium grain rice. A major factor behind the relatively strong long grain farm rice prices early in the season in the face of a bumper crop was the record pace of U.S. rough rice exports, with Brazil accounting for the bulk of the purchases. Through December 31, U.S. rough exports and sales totaled 850,800 tons, up from 529,000 a year earlier. However, with Brazil's main harvest starting in March--and a large crop projected--few additional sales to Brazil in 1998/99 are likely, and most of the 1998/99 purchases have already been shipped. The winding down of Brazilian sales is a factor in the declining U.S. long grain prices. In contrast to the fast pace of U.S. rough sales, U.S. milled rice exports and sales were more than 4 percent behind a year earlier through December 31. All of the decrease was due to combined medium/short grain sales, which were almost 42 percent behind a year earlier, primarily a result of weaker sales to Turkey. In contrast, long grain milled exports and outstanding sales were almost 17 percent ahead of a year earlier. THAI EXPORT PRICES STRENGTHEN ON STRONGER NEW SALES Thai export prices for most grades of rice dropped substantially from late summer through early December due primarily to few new purchases, especially for higher grades. However, Thai prices have strengthened since early December due to heavy loadings (primarily of parboiled) lingering concerns that dryness could cut the second crop, and some strengthening of the baht. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were $294 per ton for the week ending January 5, up from $288 a week earlier and above the $283 December average and $287 in November. Prices for low quality rice--25, 35, and 100 percent brokens--strengthened in December as well, a result of sales to Indonesia and other regular buyers. In contrast to the recent strengthening of Thai prices, quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice continue the drop that began in mid-September. Vietnamese prices dropped through most of the fall to remain competitive with Thai prices. And since early December Vietnamese prices have softened due to an absence of new orders. Vietnamese 5 percent brokens were quoted at $250 per ton in early January, down from $260 a month earlier and a November average of $278. Prices averaged $295 in October and $311 in September. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b. Houston) have remained steady since the start of November, after generally declining since the beginning of the 1997/98 market year. Prices are currently quoted at $386 per ton. Although up slightly from $375 in October, they are below averages of $392 in September and $401 in August. Prices were $441 at the start of 1997/98. This fall's substantial drop in Thai prices and large supplies of U.S. long grain rice have been major factors in the recent decline in U.S. milled prices. During the first 9 months of 1998, declining U.S. prices in the face of steady to rising Thai prices allowed the U.S. price difference over Thai prices to decline from $158 in December 1997 to under $60 in September. However, this fall's plummet in Thai prices pushed the difference up to $110 per ton by early December, limiting U.S. export opportunities in some international markets, especially the Middle East. The price difference has narrowed over the past month and was $92 per ton in early January. In contrast to weaker prices for southern long grain rice, prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, 100 pound bags, f.o.b. Sacramento) have shown considerable strength this year. Prices are currently quoted at $474 per ton, up from $408 at the start of the market year and a $441 average in September. California medium grain prices started to rise in June, after dropping almost steadily since early 1996. Expectations of a substantially smaller 1998 crop and several sales to Japan are behind the higher prices. WORLD RICE PRODUCTION TO DROP 2 PERCENT IN 1998/99 For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at 377.8 million tons (milled basis), up fractionally from last month's projection, but almost 2 percent below the 1997/98 record. World consumption is projected to be a record 385 million tons, nearly unchanged from last month's projection but up slightly from a year earlier. With consumption exceeding production by 7.3 million tons, ending stocks are projected to decline more than 14 percent to 44.3 million tons, the lowest since 1982/83. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11.5 percent, up slightly from last month but the lowest since 1972/73. Brazil accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month upward revision in world production. Brazil's crop was revised up 340,000 tons to 7.14 million (milled) based on higher expected yields resulting from better rainfall and full reservoirs. This will be the largest crop since 1994/95. Higher yields are behind a 200,000 ton increase in Japan's rice crop to 8.1 million tons and a 100,000 ton increase in South Korea's to 5.1 million tons. Nepal's crop was raised 100,000 tons from last month to 2.4 million in response to larger area. Uruguay's crop was raised 80,000 tons to a record 800,000 due to revised area. And finally, Portugal's crop was raised 27,000 tons to 117,000 in response to larger expected yields. In contrast to these upward revisions, the Thai crop was revised down 650,000 tons to 14.3 million (milled basis) based on reduced plantings and a slightly lower yield. The year-to-year decrease in the global crop is primarily due to smaller projected crops in China, India, Bangladesh, Japan, South Korea, Egypt, and Australia. Except for Bangladesh, these countries are either major exporters--India, China, Australia, and Egypt--or, in the cases of Japan and South Korea, their import levels are largely driven by WTO agreements. Several countries are none the less expected to produce larger crops in 1998/99. Indonesia's crop is projected to rise almost 2.8 million tons from 1997/98 to 33 million due to greater area and slightly higher yields. The crop would still be slightly below the record 33.2 million tons in 1995/96. The Philippines' crop is projected at 6.9 million tons, 7 percent above the drought-reduced 1997/98 crop. Higher area is behind the larger crop, although production and area remain below the 1996/97 record. These two importers accounted for the bulk of 1998's expanded trade. Pakistan's crop is projected to rise 6 percent to a record 4.6 million tons on larger plantings, the third straight year of record production. In Latin America, Brazil's revised crop is up 23 percent from the 1997/1998 El Nino reduced-crop, the result of an almost 19 percent increase in area and slightly higher yield. The region's principal exporters, Argentina and Uruguay, are expected to produce larger crops as well. Argentina's 1998/99 crop is projected at a record 880,000 tons, up 34 percent from the 1997/98 flood-damaged crop. Both area and yield are projected substantially higher. Uruguay's 800,000-ton record crop is up 31 percent, with both area and yield rebounding from severe flood damage. GLOBAL 1999 RICE TRADE PROJECTED TO DROP 5.6 MILLION TONS Global 1999 rice trade is projected at 21 million tons, down almost 2 percent from last month's projection and more than 21 percent below 1998's revised record of 26.6 million tons. Trade in 1999 would be the second largest on record. China accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month reduction in imports. China's imports were lowered 200,000 tons to 300,000 based on expectations of tighter government control of imports and reduced 1998 imports. Brazil's imports were lowered 150,000 tons to 850,000 due to its larger crop. North Korea's imports were reduced 50,000 tons to 300,000 based on lower 1998 trade. And Singapore's imports were reduced 25,000 tons to 350,000 based on revised 1998 estimates. In contrast, Bangladesh's imports were revised up 200,000 tons to 950,000 based on higher 1998 imports from India. Saudi Arabia's imports were revised up 50,000 tons to 750,000 tons, a response to larger 1998 imports. And finally, South Africa's imports were revised up 50,000 tons to 650,000, also a response to larger 1998 imports. On the export side, Thailand and Egypt account for nearly all of the month-to-month export decrease. Thailand's exports were revised down 300,000 tons to 5.5 million based on the smaller 1998/99 crop. Egypt's exports were lowered 300,000 tons from last month to 300,000, a result of revisions in 1998 exports and expectations of smaller than previously expected shipments to Indonesia. In contrast to these reductions, India's exports were revised up 200,000 tons to 2.2 million based on higher 1998 sales to Bangladesh. Finally, Uruguay's exports were raised 50,000 tons to a record 675,000 due to its larger crop. An expected return to normal weather in Southeast Asia and Latin America is behind the smaller 1999 trade forecast. Indonesia accounts for the bulk of the reduced imports. Indonesia's imports are projected to drop 3.9 million tons from the record 5.9 million in 1998. The Philippines's imports are projected to drop 1 million tons from 2.2 million in 1998. Bangladesh's imports are projected to drop 1.4 million tons from 1998's record, even though a smaller crop is projected. Brazil's exports are projected to drop 650,000 tons from 1998's revised record of 1.4 million. Asia will export less in 1999, a result of smaller crops in several key exporting countries. Thailand's exports are down 867,000 from 1998, a response to a smaller crop and some stock rebuilding. A smaller crop and rising consumption are behind a 2.25-million-ton drop in China's exports to 1.25 million tons. India's exports are projected to drop more than 2 million tons, a result of smaller production and expanding domestic use. Vietnam's exports are projected to drop 276,000 tons, a result of a marginally smaller crop. Australia is projected to export 650,000 tons, down 50,000 from the 1997 and 1998 record, the result of a smaller projected crop. In contrast, South American exports will up in 1999, a result of larger crops. Total trade for 1998 is revised up more than 3 percent from last month's projection to a record 26.6 million tons. A 750,000 ton revision in Bangladesh's imports to a record 2.35 million tons--a result of larger rail and truck shipments from India--accounts for the bulk of the higher import projection. South Africa's imports were revised up 150,000 tons to 650,000 based on larger shipments from Thailand and India. Saudi Arabia's imports were revised up 50,000 tons to 750,000 based on the pace of shipments to date. And finally, imports by Peru and Ghana were each raised 25,000 tons to 250,000 and 150,000 based on deliveries to date. On the export side, India's exports were revised up 750,000 tons to 4.25 million based on the larger truck and rail shipments to Bangladesh. Thailand's exports were revised up 267,000 tons to nearly 6.4 million based on final 1998 data. End-of-year data were responsible for a 26,000-ton increase in Vietnam's exports to almost 3.77 million tons--a record--and a 17,000-ton increase in Burma's exports to 97,000 tons. This report is available on the Internet at the ERS Webbsite at: http://www.econ.ag.gov Note: To order printed copies of the 1998 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 Detailed 1998/99 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on January 14, 1998 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1996/97 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1993/94 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1997/98 1998/99 Item 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0 5 0 5 N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 Harvested 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 Production 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 Imports 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.2 9.0 Total supply 213.2 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.6 219.4 224.8 Food 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 80.0 82.0 83.5 Seed 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.3 Brewer's use 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ 8.8 11.6 8.2 8.3 1.6 4.8 5.5 Domestic use 96.7 101.4 100.7 104.6 101.0 106.5 108.7 Exports 77.0 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 85.2 87.0 Rough 5.2 3.5 17.7 10.6 12.6 26.1 24.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 71.8 81.2 72.4 65.9 59.1 63.0 Total use 173.7 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.4 191.7 195.7 Ending stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 29.0 CCC inv. 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 27.2 27.7 29.0 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 14.4 14.8 $/cwt 8.25 Average farm to price 6/ 5.89 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.64 8.75 Percent Average milling rate 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1996/97 to present ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 10.10 10,520 September | 9.35 9,502 9.85 12,204 10.00 13,478 October | 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 9.66 11,988 November | 8.98 11,882 9.71 11,191 9.41 11,768 December | 9.19 1/ 10,729 1/ 9.67 12,540 9.82 12,758 January | 9.52 13,416 9.95 15,927 February | 9.66 10,679 10.10 12,086 March | 9.55 10,474 10.20 10,133 April | 9.30 10,802 10.30 9,902 May | 9.41 10,357 10.20 7,969 June | 9.51 11,061 9.90 7,092 July | 9.57 9,290 10.10 9,421 | Average 2/ | 9.14 42,916 9.64 11,093 9.96 11,087 | Total 3/ |8.25-8.75 4/ 133,116 133,042 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average;1998/99 is through November only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1998/99 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to 1998/99 1/ ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | ------------------- ------------------- ------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt August | 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 7.79 7.93 7.63 September | 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 7.66 7.89 7.60 October | 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 7.48 7.82 7.52 November | 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 7.18 7.67 7.37 December | 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 7.25 7.71 7.41 January | 7.48 7.08 6.92 2/ 8.76 7.80 7.67 7.54 7.74 7.48 February | 9.41 7.88 7.72 7.72 7.67 7.53 March | 9.50 7.86 7.70 7.43 7.59 7.45 April | 9.80 7.91 7.76 7.14 7.26 7.12 May | 8.79 7.81 7.63 8.38 7.21 7.09 June | 9.19 7.91 7.74 8.50 7.11 7.00 July | 9.22 7.92 7.75 8.58 6.93 6.83 | Average 3 | 8.19 7.46 7.30 2/ 8.80 7.72 7.57 7.72 7.54 7.34 ============================================================================== 1/ Loan rate basis (rough) 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 | 1997/98 Country ---------|-------- 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 or as of | as of region 12/31/98 |12/31/97 Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 197 | 224 324 342 417 474 362 Other Western Europe 15 | 15 17 16 19 22 18 Turkey 56 | 33 115 202 187 259 67 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 4 34 58 10 Former Soviet Union 0 | 1 2 23 37 18 4 Japan 185 | 176 250 212 192 2 568 | OTHER ASIA AND | THE MIDDLE EAST 121 | 97 183 315 344 525 347 Iran 0 | 0 0 0 72 191 121 Iraq 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 20 | 21 42 56 22 62 1 Indonesia 26 | 0 0 76 15 0 0 Philippines 0 | 0 0 34 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia 59 | 56 96 168 130 153 157 Syria 0 | 5 11 25 1 28 0 AFRICA 109 | 99 171 205 324 257 258 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 30 31 31 82 57 67 Ghana 30 | 29 64 33 48 7 0 Senegal 0 | 0 0 0 5 28 75 South Africa 65 | 36 67 114 147 113 90 WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,120 | 776 1,718 934 1,010 1,585 513 Brazil 556 | 0 28 1 1 368 12 Canada 87 | 84 107 109 107 127 91 Colombia 11 | 0 297 34 28 0 0 Costa Rica 0 | 82 102 55 110 65 46 Dominican Republic 0 | 50 93 19 3 40 0 Ecuador 0 | 50 148 0 0 0 0 Guatemala 24 | 28 25 32 31 23 4 Haiti 51 | 53 100 86 121 148 43 Honduras 25 | 37 63 52 30 29 1 Jamaica 0 | 13 26 28 80 74 63 Leeward & Windward Is 11 | 12 16 17 22 17 18 Mexico 163 | 181 397 309 318 327 177 Nicaragua 29 | 10 35 68 29 39 0 Panama 0 | 61 88 0 0 17 0 Peru 99 | 43 99 46 36 77 3 El Salvador 29 | 55 49 22 30 37 5 Trinidad 16 | 5 21 21 27 34 21 Unknown 8 | 30 | TOTAL 1,811 | 1,451 2,780 2,254 2,564 3,201 2,149 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,840 3| 2,776 3/ 3,186 2,713 2,878 3,604 2,630 Difference 4/ 412 | 406 459 313 403 481 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments on a product-weight basis. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Column labeled " as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 3/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 4/ The average difference between the Census and "Export Sales" for 1993/94 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Vietnam ----------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A-1 7/ broken year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1986/87 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 Aug 1997 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep 1997 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct 1997 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov 1997 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 244 Dec 1997 419 397 463 274 269 255 228 193 270 Jan 1998 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 259 Feb 1998 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar 1998 410 392 445 306 284 278 235 193 280 Apr 1998 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May 1998 408 386 441 328 299 299 248 197 NQ June 1998 408 395 441 338 315 311 256 209 304 July 1998 408 402 441 337 315 304 255 211 305 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 474 419 306 298 287 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 283 282 262 245 232 258 Jan 1999 9/ 386 474 419 294 306 273 249 237 250 | 1998/99 9/ 388 455 425 305 299 282 257 238 285 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent broken. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 Harvested 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 Production 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 Imports 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.0 7.8 Total supply 146.4 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.5 146.6 163.8 Domestic use 4/ 59.0 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.9 62.5 71.6 Exports 65.8 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 69.7 72.5 Total use 124.8 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.4 132.2 144.1 Ending stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 19.7 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 11.9 10.8 13.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 Harvested 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 Production 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 Imports 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 64.7 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.8 59.9 Domestic use 4/ 37.7 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.1 44.0 37.1 Exports 11.2 19.6 18.6 18.1 22.0 15.5 14.5 Total use 48.9 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.5 51.6 Ending stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 8.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 32.4 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.6 16.1 Ending stocks difference 1/ 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending inventories of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE