RICE OUTLOOK March 12, 1999 March 1999, ERS-RCS-0399 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. RICE OUTLOOK is supplemented by RICE YEARBOOK, an annual report. The yearbook summary is scheduled for release in November 1999. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS o U.S. 1998/99 rice exports are projected at 84 million cwt, down 2 million from last month's forecast and more than 1 percent below a year earlier. o Ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 31.5 million cwt, up 5 percent from last month's projection--a result of weaker exports --and 14 percent larger than a year earlier. o The 1998/99 season-average farm price is projected at $8.40 to $8.80 per cwt, up 15 cents on the low end and 5 cents on the high end from last month's projection. o World trade for 1999 is projected at almost 21.7 million tons up 3 percent from last month's forecast, but 22 percent below 1998's revised record of 27.65 million tons. U.S. 1998/99 EXPORT PROJECTION LOWERED TO 84 MILLION CWT U.S. rice exports in 1998/99 are projected at 84 million cwt, down 2 million from last month's forecast and slightly below 1997/98. The monthly revision is based on expectations that the 100,000-ton PL 480 Title I donation to Indonesia will not be entirely shipped by the end of the 1998/99 (August-July) market year. All of the decrease is for long grain milled rice. Rough rice exports remain projected at 24 million cwt, second only to last year's record of 26.1 million. Milled rice exports are forecast at 60 million cwt, down 2 million from last month's projection. Through March 4, exports and outstanding sales totaled almost 2.27 million tons (product-weight basis), 12 percent ahead of a year earlier, a result of greater rough rice sales. Total rough rice exports and outstanding sales were almost 966,000 tons, 29 percent ahead of a year earlier, with Brazil accounting 56 percent. In contrast, total milled exports and outstanding sales were more than 2 percent behind a year earlier, with combined medium and short grain commitments 29 percent behind a year earlier. Long grain milled export commitments were almost 11 percent ahead. As of March 4 outstanding sales totaled only 260,300 tons, less than half the level of a year earlier. Outstanding sales have been on a near-steady decline since early-October as huge shipments to Brazil early in the market year heavily front-loaded 1998/99 exports. Total use in 1998/99 is projected at 193.2 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from last month's forecast but slightly above a year earlier. Total domestic use was raised slightly to a record 103.7 million, with food use accounting for all of the increase. Food use was raised 500,000 cwt--all long grain--to a record 84 million based on trend analysis from the U.S. Rice Distribution Patterns 1997/98 Report showing stronger growth in direct food use and processed foods. Ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 31.5 million cwt, 1.5 million above last month's projection--as lower exports more than offset greater food use--and 14 percent above a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.3 percent, up from 15.4 percent a month earlier. These are the highest ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratio since 1992/93. Total long grain use is projected at a record 141.6 million cwt, down 1.5 million from last month's projection, but 7 percent higher than last year. Domestic use was raised 500,000 cwt from last month to a record 72.1 million, up 15 percent from a year earlier. Exports were lowered 2 million cwt to 69.5 million, marginally below a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 22.2 million cwt, up 7 percent from last month's projection and 55 percent higher than a year earlier. These are the highest long grain stocks since 1986/87. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 15.7 percent, up from 14.4 percent last month and the largest since 1992/93. No revisions were made to the medium/short grain supply and use projections. U.S. MEDIUM GRAIN PRICES REMAIN AT NEAR-RECORD LEVELS The 1998/99 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $8.40 to $8.80 per cwt, up 15 cents on the low end and up 5 cents on the high end from last month. The revision is based on monthly cash prices that averaged $9.11 through mid-February. Near-record medium grain prices account for the relatively high cash prices; long grain prices have declined since the start of the market year. Even with near-record medium grain prices, the 1998/99 projected SAFP for all rice is below a year earlier's $9.70, the result of record U.S. long grain supplies and lower international prices. Last month, USDA estimated February's midmonth price at $9.11 per cwt and lowered January's average price to $9.05 from a preliminary $9.12. Near record medium grain prices are behind the relatively high monthly average cash prices thus far in 1999 in the face of falling long grain prices. Industry sources have reported steady softening of long grain cash prices since mid-September, with prices currently quoted around $7.75 per cwt in the Delta and about $1 higher in Texas, although there is very little selling reported in Texas. Recent drops in long grain prices have been due to weaker export sales since mid-January and industry expectations of large supplies in 1999/00. In contrast to declining long grain prices, southern medium grain prices have strengthened since the start of the 1998/99 season, with quotes in the Delta reported at more than $10 per cwt in early February. Little southern medium grain remains to be marketed. In California, medium grain farm prices have been reported at more than $10.50 per cwt since mid-February, nearly $2.00 higher than a year earlier. Most California medium grain sales are complete. U.S. medium grain prices have not been reported this high on any sustained basis since the late 1970s and very early 1980s. The price strength is due to extremely tight supplies of southern and California medium grain and large sales to Japan of California medium grain milled rice in late 1998 and early 1999. The major factor behind relatively strong long grain prices early in the season despite record supplies was the massive imports by Brazil. However, Brazil's main harvest started in early March--and a very large crop is projected--therefore few if any additional U.S. sales to Brazil are likely, and nearly all of the 1998/99 purchases have been shipped. THAI EXPORT PRICES CONTINUE TO DROP IN ABSENCE OF NEW ORDERS Thai export prices for most grades of rice continue to drop in the absence of major buyers, large available supplies from the Thai main crop harvested in December-January, and lower prices for Vietnamese and Pakistani rice. In addition, China has been exporting at a rapid pace thus far in 1999, with prices well below those for comparable grades of Thai rice. Thai prices have declined since mid-January as supplies from the country's main harvest began to arrive on the market and Indonesia halted new purchases. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were $271 per ton for the week ending March 9, down from $278 a week earlier and a $287 February average. Prices for low quality rice--25, 35, and 100 percent brokens--have also dropped since mid-January on an absence of new sales. There is little potential for a major price increase in the international market --as occurred in the first half of 1998--for the remainder of the 1998/99 market year. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice continue the drop that began in September. The recent softening of Vietnamese prices has been due to an absence of new buyers to replace Indonesia and the arrival of the country's main winter-spring harvest. Vietnamese 5 percent brokens were quoted at $230 per ton in mid-March, down from almost $240 in February and $245 in January. Vietnamese rice is currently quoted about $30 per ton below similar grades of Thai rice, down from more than $40 a month earlier, but sufficient to limit Thai sales. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b. Houston) are currently quoted at $369 per ton, down from $375 in mid-February and $386 in mid-January. Prices have been below a year earlier since the start of the 1998/99 market year, a result of the substantial drop in Thai prices since September and record supplies of U.S. long grain rice. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice is widening as Thai prices drop faster than U.S. prices. For March, the difference averages $95 per ton, up from $85 in February and $76 in January. Thus, even as U.S. prices have dropped since January, the difference will have to contract for United States rice to be competitive with Thailand in high quality markets in the Middle East and South Africa. The United States does not compete with Thailand and Vietnam in the lower quality Asian commercial markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines. In contrast to weaker prices for southern long grain, prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, 100 pound bags, f.o.b. Sacramento) have shown substantial strength throughout 1998/99. Prices are currently quoted at $474 per ton bagged, up from $408 at the start of the market year. A substantially smaller 1998 crop, expectations of very tight ending stocks, and large sales to Japan in January are behind the higher prices. RECORD CROP PROJECTED FOR LATIN AMERICA IN 1998/99 For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at 378 million tons (milled basis), marginally above last month's projection as revisions for individual producing countries virtually netted each other out. Production is still 2 percent below the 1997/98 record. World consumption is projected at 384.2 million tons, down almost a million tons from last month's projection and nearly equal to the 1997/98 revised record. With consumption exceeding production by 6.27 million tons, ending stocks are projected to decline 12 percent to 45.7 million tons, the lowest since 1987/88. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11.9 percent, up marginally from last month and the lowest since 1972/73. Brazil accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month increase in world production. The Brazilian crop was revised up 310,000 tons to 7.45 million (milled basis) based on higher yields and greater plantings. Japan's crop was raised 54,000 tons to 8.15 million based on final data reporting larger area. Bangladesh's crop was raised 50,000 tons to 17.8 million due to higher yields (area was actually reduced). Very good weather was behind a 25,000-ton increase in Australia's crop to 965,000 tons. And finally, Uruguay's production was raised 20,000 tons to 820,000 due to larger plantings. Its 1997/98 and 1996/97 crops were revised higher as well. Nearly canceling out these increases were several downward revisions. Poor weather cut Taiwan's yield, pulling total production down 75,000 tons to 1.33 million. Italy's crop was reduced 42,000 tons to 808,000 due to lower yields although area was raised. Chile's crop was revised down 40,000 tons to 50,000 based on government data showing much smaller area and lower yields. Chile's production has been lowered for each year going back to 1995/96. Finally, Malaysia's rice production was lowered 30,000 tons to 1.23 million due to lower area. The year-to-year decrease in global rice production is primarily due to smaller projected crops in China, India, Bangladesh, Japan, South Korea, and Egypt. Except for Bangladesh, these countries are either major exporters--India, China, and Egypt--or, in the case of Japan and South Korea, their import levels are largely driven by WTO agreements. Although both Thailand and Vietnam are also expected to produce smaller crops in 1998/99, production would still be quite large in both countries, yielding substantial exportable supplies. Several countries are expected to produce larger crops in 1998/99. Indonesia's crop is projected to rise 1.5 million tons from 1997/98's revised level to 33 million due to higher yields. The crop would still be below the record 33.2 million tons in 1995/96. The Philippines' 6.65-million-ton crop is more than 2 percent above last year's drought-reduced crop, although production and area remain well below the 1996/97 record. These two importers accounted for the bulk of 1998's massive expansion in world rice trade. Pakistan's 4.65-million-ton crop is up over 7 percent from 1997/98 due to record area and yield and is the third straight record crop. In Latin America, Brazil's revised crop is up 28 percent from the El Nino-reduced crop in 1997/98, the result of a 20-percent increase in area and a slightly higher yield. The region's principal exporters, Argentina and Uruguay, are expected to produce record crops. Argentina's 1998/99 crop is projected at 880,000 tons, up 34 percent from the flood-damaged 1997/98 crop. Both area and yield are projected substantially higher. Uruguay's revised crop is up 25 percent, with both area and yield rebounding from severe flood damage. For the region as a whole, Latin America is projected to produce a record 20.6 million tons, 20 percent larger than a year earlier. Thus the smaller global supplies and tight ending stocks are not likely to create much upward price pressure as crops in most major importing countries--Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brazil--are expected to post significant gains in 1998/99, substantially limiting import demand. GLOBAL 1999 RICE TRADE REVISED UP 3 PERCENT TO 21.7 MILLION TONS Global 1999 rice trade is projected at 21.7 million tons, up 640,000 from last month's projection but 22 percent below 1998's revised record of 27.65 million tons. Trade in 1999 would be the second largest on record. India and China accounted for most of the upward revision in exports. India's exports were raised 300,000 tons to 2.5 million based on planned World Food Program shipments to Bangladesh. China's exports were raised 250,000 tons to 1.5 million based on the pace of shipments in January and February. Larger crops are behind a 50,000-ton increase in both Uruguay's exports to a record 725,000 tons and a 25,000 ton increase in Australia's to 700,000 tons. Saudi Arabia's exports were raised slightly based on larger transshipments to Yemen. In contrast, Taiwan's exports were lowered 25,000 tons due to a smaller crop. On the import side, Indonesia's imports were raised 500,000 tons from last month to 2.5 million based on larger consumption. Bangladesh's imports were raised 350,000 tons to 1.3 million based on World Food Program plans and a weaker crop. Malaysia's imports were raised 50,000 tons due to a smaller crop. Haiti's imports were revised up 25,000 tons to 200,000 to match revisions in 1998 data. Similarly, Canada's imports were raised 5,000 tons to 240,000. Indonesia accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year decline in imports with a projected drop of 3.6 million tons from 1998's revised record of almost 6.1 million. The Philippines's imports are projected to drop almost 1 million tons to 1.2 million. Bangladesh's revised imports are almost 1.2 million tons below 1998's revised record, even with a smaller crop. Brazil's exports are projected to drop more than 600,000 tons from 1998's revised record of almost 1.5 million. Total trade for 1998 is revised up 360,000 tons from last month to a record 27.65 million tons. End-of-year trade data were behind the revisions. Argentina, Uruguay, India, and the United States accounted for the bulk of the higher exports. Indonesia accounted for the bulk of the higher imports, with imports revised up 181,000 tons. The EU accounted for most of the remainder, with imports revised up 100,000 tons to 800,000. Smaller increases were made for Brazil, Eastern Europe, Haiti, Mexico, other Western Europe, Canada, South Korea, and Syria. In contrast, Japan's 1998 imports were lowered 182,000 tons to 468,000. Small reductions in imports were made for Colombia, Singapore, Costa Rica, Cuba, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Yemen, Ghana, Malaysia, and the United States. Detailed 1998/99 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on March 15, 1999 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov . The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on April 12, 1999. The report, along with the 1998 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports and yearbooks, may be accessed on the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. Note: To order printed copies of the 1998 Rice Yearbook, call 1-800-999-6779. The summary of the 1999 Rice Yearbook will be released on November 18, 1999. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. Tables: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1996/97 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1994/95 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1997/98 1998/99 Item 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Area Million acres Planted 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 Harvested 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 Production 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 Imports 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.2 9.0 Total supply 213.2 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.6 219.4 224.7 Food 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 80.0 82.0 84.0 Seed 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.3 Brewer's use 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ 8.8 11.6 8.2 8.3 1.6 4.8 5.5 Domestic use 96.7 101.4 100.7 104.6 101.0 106.5 109.2 Exports 77.0 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 85.2 84.0 Rough 5.2 3.5 17.7 10.6 12.6 26.1 24.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 71.8 81.2 72.4 65.9 59.1 60.0 Total use 173.7 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.4 191.7 193.2 Ending stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 31.5 CCC inv. 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 27.2 27.7 31.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 14.4 16.3 $/cwt 8.40 Average farm to price 6/ 5.89 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.80 Percent Av. milling rate 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/Marketing year (August to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/Estimated. 3/Projected. 4/Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1996/97 to present ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 10.10 10,520 September | 9.35 9,502 9.92 12,204 10.00 13,478 October | 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 9.66 11,988 November | 8.98 11,882 9.82 11,191 9.41 11,768 December | 9.06 13,728 9.77 12,540 9.82 12,758 January | 9.05 13,705 9.57 13,416 9.95 15,927 February | 9.11 1/ 11,725 1/ 9.75 10,679 10.10 12,086 March | 9.67 10,474 10.20 10,133 April | 9.40 10,802 10.30 9,902 May | 9.38 10,357 10.20 7,969 June | 9.58 11,061 9.90 7,092 July | 9.58 9,290 10.00 9,421 | | Average 2/ | 9.11 82,074 9.70 11,093 9.96 11,087 | Total 3/ |8.40-8.80 4/ 133,116 133,042 | ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1998/99 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1998/99 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to 1998/99 1/ ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt | August | 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 7.79 7.93 7.63 September | 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 7.66 7.89 7.60 October | 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 7.48 7.82 7.52 November | 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 7.18 7.67 7.37 December | 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 7.25 7.71 7.41 January | 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 7.54 7.74 7.48 February | 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 7.72 7.67 7.53 March | 7.07 6.98 7.04 2/ 9.50 7.86 7.70 7.43 7.59 7.45 April | 9.80 7.91 7.76 7.14 7.26 7.12 May | 8.79 7.81 7.63 8.38 7.21 7.09 June | 9.19 7.91 7.74 8.50 7.11 7.00 July | 9.22 7.92 7.75 8.58 6.93 6.83 | Average 3 | 7.95 7.36 7.25 2/ 8.80 7.72 7.57 7.72 7.54 7.34 ============================================================================== 1/Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan rate or prevailing world market price. 2/Preliminary. 3/Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 | 1997/98 Country ---------|-------- or as of | as of 97/98 96/97 95/96 94/95 93/94 region 3/04/99 | 3/04/98 Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union 237 | 263 324 342 417 474 362 Other Western Europe 16 | 16 17 16 19 22 18 Turkey 69 | 48 115 202 187 259 67 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 4 34 58 10 Former Soviet Union 0 | 1 2 23 37 18 4 Japan 323 | 250 250 212 192 2 568 OTHER ASIA AND | THE MIDDLE EAST 133 | 141 183 315 344 525 347 Iran 0 | 0 0 0 72 191 121 Iraq 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 21 | 41 42 56 22 62 1 Indonesia 26 | 0 0 76 15 0 0 Saudi Arabia 66 | 73 96 168 130 153 157 Syria 0 | 5 11 25 1 28 0 | AFRICA 128 | 132 171 205 324 257 258 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 30 31 31 82 57 67 Ghana 44 | 45 64 33 48 7 0 South Africa 68 | 51 67 114 147 113 90 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,360 | 1,149 1,718 934 1,010 1,585 513 Brazil 554 | 1 28 1 1 368 12 Canada 109 | 98 107 109 107 127 91 Colombia 11 | 130 297 34 28 0 0 Costa Rica 0 | 83 102 55 110 65 46 Dominican Republic 50 | 82 93 19 3 40 0 Ecuador 0 | 52 148 0 0 0 0 Guatemala 24 | 29 25 32 31 23 4 Haiti 79 | 66 100 86 121 148 43 Honduras 39 | 44 63 52 30 29 1 Jamaica 13 | 13 26 28 80 74 63 Leeward & Windward Is 11 | 15 16 17 22 17 18 Mexico 256 | 271 397 309 318 327 177 Nicaragua 33 | 26 35 68 29 39 0 Panama 5 | 88 88 0 0 17 0 Peru 101 | 54 99 46 36 77 3 El Salvador 33 | 58 49 22 30 37 5 Trinidad 23 | 19 21 21 27 34 21 TOTAL 2,267 | 2,015 2,780 2,254 2,564 3,201 2,149 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,740 4/| 3,186 2,713 2,878 3,604 2,630 Difference 4/ 412 | 406 459 313 403 481 ============================================================================== "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by U.S. Census. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/Census export total (product-weight basis)is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" does not include PL 480, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 3/USDA forecast, milled basis. 3/The average difference between Census and "Export Sales" for 1993/94 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Vietnam ------------------------ ---------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ broken year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric ton 1986/87 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 Aug 1997 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep 1997 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct 1997 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov 1997 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 244 Dec 1997 419 397 463 274 269 255 228 193 270 Jan 1998 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 259 Feb 1998 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar 1998 410 392 445 306 284 278 235 193 280 Apr 1998 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May 1998 408 386 441 328 299 299 248 197 NQ Jun 1998 408 395 441 338 315 311 256 209 304 Jul 1998 408 402 441 337 315 304 255 211 305 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 285 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 257 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 9/ 369 474 419 275 264 249 221 202 230 1998/99 9/ 383 459 424 300 292 276 249 229 272 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent broken. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 Harvested 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 Production 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 Imports 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.0 7.8 Total supply 146.4 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.5 146.6 163.8 Domestic use 4/ 59.0 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.9 62.5 72.1 Exports 65.8 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 69.7 69.5 Total use 124.8 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.4 132.2 141.6 Ending stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 22.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 11.9 10.8 15.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Continued-- Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present--continued 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 Harvested 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 Production 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 Imports 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 65.2 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.8 59.9 Domestic use 4/ 37.7 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.1 44.0 37.1 Exports 11.2 19.6 18.6 18.1 22.0 15.5 14.5 Total use 48.9 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.5 51.6 Ending stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 8.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 32.4 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.6 16.1 Ending stocks difference 1/ 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending inventories of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE