RICE OUTLOOK May 13, 1999 May 1999, ERS-RCS-0599 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: The 1999 U.S. rice crop is projected at 207 million cwt, the largest on record and 10 percent larger than the 1998 crop. U.S. rice exports for 1999/2000 are projected at 84 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from this year's revised level as a decline in rough rice exports is not fully compensated for by an expansion in milled shipments. Ending stocks in 1999/2000 are projected at 50.6 million cwt, up 67 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 25.7 percent, up 10 percentage points from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. The 1999/2000 U.S. season-average price range is projected at $6.00 to $7.00 per cwt, down from this year's revised $8.55- $8.75. U.S. 1998/99 exports were revised up 1 million cwt to 85 million based on the pace of shipments. All of the increase is for rough rice exports now projected at 26 million cwt. World rice production in 1999/2000 is forecast at a record 388.8 million tons, up more than 2 percent from a year earlier. World trade is projected at 23.5 million tons in market year 1999/2000, virtually unchanged from 1998/99. 1999 U.S. RICE CROP PROJECTED AT RECORD 207 MILLION CWT The first projections for 1999/2000 peg the U.S. rice crop at a record 207 million cwt, up 10 percent from a year earlier and 5 percent larger than the previous record of 197.8 million in 1994. A 7-percent increase in area and a higher yield are behind the robust crop projection. The March Prospective Plantings reported rice plantings at 3.58 million acres, second only to the 1981 record of 3.83 million. The 1999 yield is projected at 5,831 pounds per acre, up almost 3 percent from 1998 but still 5 percent below the 1996 record of 6,120 pounds. The 1999 crop projection is based on farmers' planting intentions, average abandonment, and a projected yield. The yield projection is derived from a 5-year Olympic average (dropping high and low) weighted by State and grain type. The acreage projections in the report are from a survey of farmers' planting intentions as of March 1. Actual plantings may differ. On June 30, USDA will publish updated planting estimates. On August 12, USDA will forecast rice production based on yields from farm operator surveys. Total supply is projected at a record 247.2 million cwt, up 10 percent from 1998/99 and 7 percent above the 1994 record. A record crop, larger carryin, and increased imports are behind the substantial increase. Beginning stocks are estimated at 30.4 million cwt, up 10 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1995/96. Imports for 1999/2000 are projected to rise 250,000 cwt to 9.75 million, just fractionally below the 1996/97 record. Growth in imports, mostly fragrant rices from Asia, has slowed since the mid-1990's. In contrast to the large increase in supplies, total use is projected to increase less than 1 percent to a record 196.6 million cwt as stronger domestic use is nearly offset by weaker exports. Total domestic use (excluding residual or unreported loss) is projected to rise almost 3 percent to a record 107.1 million cwt, with food use accounting for all of the expansion. Food use is projected at a record 88 million cwt, up 3.5 percent from 1998/99, with much of the growth attributed to stronger processed food and ingredient uses. In contrast to expanding domestic use, exports are projected to drop 1 million cwt to 84 million as expanding milled shipments do not fully compensate for weaker rough rice exports. Rough rice exports are projected to drop 11 million cwt to 15 million, a result of much smaller shipments to South America, with Brazil accounting for the bulk of the drop. Milled exports are projected to rise 17 percent to 69 million cwt, the largest since 1995/96 and the first increase since 1994/95. Lower prices are behind expectations of greater U.S. milled rice exports. Ending stocks are projected to rise 66 percent to 50.6 million cwt, as total supply outstrips the rise in total use. Ending stocks would be the largest since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 25.7 percent, up 10 percentage points from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. An examination of supply and use by grain type indicates somewhat different market situations. For long grain rice, total supplies are projected at a record 180.3 million cwt, up 10 percent from a year earlier, due to greater carryin and a record crop. Beginning stocks are projected at 22 million cwt, up 53 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1987/88. Production is projected at a record 150 million cwt, up 6 percent from 1998. Total use is projected to drop more than 1 percent to 140.5 million cwt as a small expansion in domestic use is more than offset by a 5 percent drop in exports to 67 million cwt. This raises ending stocks 81 percent to 39.8 million cwt, the largest since 1985/86. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 28.3 percent, up from 15.4 percent a year earlier and the largest since 1985/86. Combined medium/short grain supplies are projected at 65.9 million cwt, up 10 percent from a year earlier but well below levels during the mid-1990's and the record supplies of the early 1980's. Carryin is projected at just 7.4 million cwt, down 40 percent from a year earlier and the smallest reported beginning stocks since supply and use tables were first reported by grain type in 1982/83. Production is projected at 57 million cwt, up 23 percent from a year earlier, but still slightly below 1996 and 1997. Total use is projected to rise to 56.1 million cwt, up 7 percent from 1998/99. Domestic use is projected to increase 3 percent to 39.1 million and exports are projected to rise 17 percent to 17 million cwt. With total supplies rising faster than total use, ending stocks are projected to rise 32 percent to 9.8 million cwt. Nevertheless, this would be the third smallest since 1982/83. And although the stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise more than 3 percentage points to 17.4 percent, it would still be the third smallest since 1982/83. As of May 9, plantings were 74 percent complete nationwide, slightly ahead of a year earlier and the 5-year average. Plantings in Louisiana and Texas were nearly complete with Louisiana even with, and Texas ahead of its 5-year average. Plantings in Arkansas and Mississippi were slightly behind their 5-year averages. And while plantings are just 50 percent complete in California, the pace is well ahead of last year's severely delayed plantings and the State's 5-year average. U.S. 1998/99 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED TO 85 MILLION CWT U.S. rice exports in 1998/99 are projected at 85 million cwt, up 1 million from last month's projection based on the pace of shipments through April. Exports are virtually unchanged from a year earlier. All of the increase was for rough rice, now projected at 26 million, just fractionally below the 1997/98 record. Milled exports remain projected at 59 million, marginally below last year and the smallest in a decade. Through April 29, exports and outstanding sales totaled 2.61 million tons (product-weight), 4 percent ahead of a year earlier, a result of massive rough rice exports--mostly to Brazil--early in the market year. While both exports and total commitments have been ahead of a year earlier since the start of the market year, the lead has steadily narrowed since last fall after the bulk of the Brazilian purchases were shipped. Total rough rice exports and outstanding sales were nearly 1.1 million tons, almost 10 percent ahead of a year earlier, with Brazil accounting for more than half. In contrast, total milled exports and outstanding sales were almost 6 percent behind a year earlier. Combined medium and short grain commitments were more than 28 percent behind a year earlier while long grain milled exports and commitments were 4 percent ahead. As of April 29, outstanding sales totaled just 195,000 tons, compared with 517,300 a year earlier. Total 1998/99 domestic use (excluding residual) was raised 1 million cwt to 104.3 million, with food use--projected at 85 million cwt--accounting for all of the expansion. The revision was based on analysis from data from annual milled rice distribution surveys. Food use was revised up 1 million cwt in 1995/96, 1996/97, and 1997/98 as well to reflect the survey data. For these 3 years, the residual was adjusted to keep combined total domestic use and residual unchanged. The 2 million cwt increase in total use led to a 6-percent downward revision in ending stocks to 30.4 million cwt, still 10 percent above 1997/98. The stocks-to-use ratio was reduced slightly to 15.6 percent, about equal to 1994/95. There were no adjustments to the 1998/99 supply. All of the increase in exports was for long grain rice which, was raised 1 million cwt to 70.5 million, slightly above a year earlier. Stocks were reduced 1 million cwt to 22 million to reflect the greater exports, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio about 1 percentage point to 15.4 percent. No adjustments were made to the medium/short grain use. MONTHLY CASH PRICES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN The 1998/99 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $8.55 to $8.75 per cwt, a tightening of 5 cents on both the high and low ends from last month. Monthly cash prices averaged $8.98 through mid-April. Near-record medium grain prices account for the modest decline in average cash prices in the face of sharp drops in long grain prices since the start of the market year. Even with near-record medium grain prices, the 1998/99 projected SAFP for all rice is well below a year earlier's $9.70, the result of record U.S. long grain supplies and much lower international prices. Last month, USDA estimated April's midmonth price at $8.33 per cwt and lowered March's average to $8.86 from a preliminary $8.93. Monthly cash prices are the lowest since September 1995. Industry sources have reported steady softening of long grain cash prices since mid-September, with prices currently quoted around $7.50 to $7.75 per cwt in the Delta, down slightly from a month earlier, and more than $1.50 below the January average. Prices in Texas are reported around $7.75 per cwt, but business is light across the South. The decline in long grain prices since January has been due to a substantial slowing of rough rice exports and expectations of record supplies of long grain rice in 1999/2000. In contrast to declining long grain prices, southern medium grain prices strengthened since the start of the 1998/99 season. In California, medium grain farm prices were reported at nearly $11 per cwt in early May. However, little marketing has occurred since early March as most California medium grain sales are complete. Southern medium grain prices were reported at $9.00 to $10.00 per cwt in early May, with very light marketings. U.S. medium grain prices have not been reported this high on any sustained basis since the late 1970's and very early 1980's. The price strength is due to extremely tight supplies in California and the South. THAI-U.S. PRICE DIFFERENCE NARROWS Thai export prices for most grades of rice have risen slightly due to some strengthening in the baht. However, new business remains scarce. There are large available supplies in both Thailand and Vietnam, and lower prices for rice from Vietnam, China, and Pakistan. Thai prices had steadily declined from mid- January through April as supplies from its main harvest began to arrive on the market and Indonesia halted new purchases. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were $248 per ton for the week ending May 10, up slightly from a week earlier and $242 in April. Thai prices for lower quality grades--35 percent brokens and 100 percent brokens--actually dropped in an absence of new sales. Even with the slight increase, Thai prices are now reported the lowest since spring 1994. There is little potential for a major price increase in the international market as occurred in the first half of 1998, as several top buyers--Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brazil--are expected to import substantially less rice in 1999. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have dropped since early September, although not to the degree that Thai prices have. Like Thai prices, Vietnamese prices rose slightly in early May, with Vietnamese 5-percent brokens rising $5 per ton to $225 on heavy loadings and strong sales. However, prices remain below March's $228 and February's $238. Vietnamese rice is currently quoted about $15 per ton below similar grades of Thai rice. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b. Houston) have steadily dropped since late January with prices quoted at $342 per ton for the week ending May 10, down from $353 a week earlier and $364 during most of April. Prices have been below a year earlier since the start of the 1998/99 market year, a result of the substantial drop in Thai prices since September, large supplies of U.S. long grain rice, and expectations of a record 1999 U.S. crop. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice has recently contracted. As of May 10, the difference was $94 per ton, down from $106 a week earlier and $125 in late April. However, the difference is still larger than before Thai prices collapsed in January. In sharp contrast to declining prices for southern long grain, prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, 100 pound bags, f.o.b. Sacramento) have been very strong throughout 1998/99. Prices are currently quoted at $474 per ton bagged, up from $408 at the start of the market year. A substantially smaller 1998 crop and expectations of very tight ending stocks are behind the higher prices. RECORD WORLD PRODUCTION, FLAT TRADE PROJECTED FOR 1999/2000 For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 388.8 million tons, up more than 2 percent from 1998/99. The record production is based on a slight increase in total plantings and assumes normal weather in all growing areas. Record or near-record crops are expected in the major producing countries, and large or record crops are projected for all major exporting countries as well. Total consumption is projected to rise almost 1 percent to a record 388.5 million tons. With production just fractionally above consumption, ending stocks are forecast at 47 million tons, nearly unchanged from a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 12.1 percent, virtually unchanged from 1998/99 and the lowest since 1972/73. World trade in market year 1999/2000 (aggregate of local marketing years) is projected at 23.5 million tons, nearly unchanged from 1998/99. Trade remains well below the 27 million tons in market year 1997/98 when El Nino severely reduced crops in Indonesia, the Philippines, and South America. 1998/99 CROPS REVISED UP IN SOUTH AMERICA AND INDIA For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at 379.6 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from last month's projection. Production is still almost 2 percent below 1997/98's revised record. World consumption is projected at 385.7 million tons, up more than 1 million tons from last month's projection and 2 million tons larger than a year earlier. With consumption exceeding production by 6.1 million tons, ending stocks are projected to decline 12 percent to 46.7 million tons--nearly unchanged from last month--and the lowest since 1987/88. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 12.1 percent, nearly the same as last month and the lowest since 1972/73. India accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month increase in world production. India's crop was revised up 2 million tons to a record 83 million (milled basis) based on higher yields. In South America, Brazil's crop was raised 50,000 tons to 7.65 million due to higher yields. Similarly, the Argentina's record crop was revised up 50,000 tons to a record 975,000 due to a 20,000 hectare increase in area to 280,000. In contrast, a reduction in milling yield to 63.2 percent has resulted in a 900,000 ton drop in Indonesia's milled crop (but not paddy) to 32.1 million tons. Indonesia's 1997/98 milling rate and milled output were lowered as well. CALENDAR YEAR 1999 GLOBAL RICE TRADE TO DROP 5.5 MILLION TONS Global rice trade for calendar year is projected at 22 million tons, up 250,000 from last month's projection but 20 percent below calendar year 1998's revised record of 27.4 million tons. Trade in 1999 is the second largest on record. China accounts for all of the increase in exports. China's exports were revised up 250,000 tons to 1.75 million based on first-quarter shipments. On the import side, Eastern Europe's were raised 45,000 tons to 215,000 based on larger shipments to Poland and Romania. Total trade for calendar year 1998 is revised down 270,000 tons from last month to 27.4 million, still a record. End-of-year trade data caused the revisions. India's exports were lowered 309,000 tons to 4.5 million while Uruguay's were raised 39,000 tons to 639,000. On the import side, South Korea's imports were reduced 19,000 tons to 54,000 based on World Trade Atlas data, and Iraq's imports were lowered 15,000 tons to 610,000 based on shipment data. In contrast to these reductions, Eastern Europe's imports were raised 46,000 tons to 235,000 based on final shipment data. Imports were increased slightly for China, Japan, Peru, Singapore, and Yemen. ------------------------------------------------------------------------. Detailed 1998/99 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on May 14, 1999 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on June 14, 1999. The report, along with the 1998 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports and yearbooks, may be accessed on the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. Note: To order printed copies of the 1998 Rice Yearbook, call 1-800-999-6779. The summary of the 1999 Rice Yearbook will be released on November 18, 1999. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. Tables: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1996/97 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1994/95 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1987/88 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.580 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.550 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,831 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 30.4 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 207.0 Imports 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.2 9.5 9.8 Total supply 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.6 219.4 225.2 247.2 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 83.0 85.0 88.0 Seed 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.7 Brewer's use 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ 11.6 8.2 7.3 1.2 4.4 5.5 5.5 Domestic use 101.4 100.7 104.6 101.0 106.5 109.8 112.6 Exports 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 85.2 85.0 84.0 Rough 3.5 17.7 10.6 12.6 26.1 26.0 15.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 81.2 72.4 65.9 59.1 59.0 69.0 Total use 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.4 191.7 194.8 196.6 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 30.4 50.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 14.4 15.6 25.7 $/cwt 8.55 6.00 Average farm to to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.75 7.00 Percent Average milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 72.0 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year(August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1996/97 to present ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== August | 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 10.10 10,520 September | 9.35 9,502 9.92 12,204 10.00 13,478 October | 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 9.66 11,988 November | 8.98 11,882 9.82 11,191 9.41 11,768 December | 9.06 13,728 9.77 12,540 9.82 12,758 January | 9.05 13,705 9.57 13,416 9.95 15,927 February | 8.97 13,033 9.75 10,679 10.10 12,086 March | 8.86 12,792 9.67 10,474 10.20 10,133 April | 8.33 1/ 12,022 1/ 9.40 10,802 10.30 9,902 May | 9.38 10,357 10.20 7,969 June | 9.58 11,061 9.90 7,092 July | 9.58 9,290 10.00 9,421 | Average 2/ | 8.98 12,022 9.70 11,093 9.96 11,087 Total 3/ |8.55-8.75 4/ 108,196 133,116 133,042 ============================================================================== 1/Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1998/99 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed/99 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to 1998/99 1/ ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt August | 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 7.79 7.93 7.63 September | 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 7.66 7.89 7.60 October | 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 7.48 7.82 7.52 November | 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 7.18 7.67 7.37 December | 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 7.25 7.71 7.41 January | 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 7.54 7.74 7.48 February | 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 7.72 7.67 7.53 March | 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 7.43 7.59 7.45 April | 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 7.14 7.26 7.12 May | 6.44 6.74 6.79 2/ 8.79 7.81 7.63 8.38 7.21 7.09 June | 9.19 7.91 7.74 8.50 7.11 7.00 July | 9.22 7.92 7.75 8.58 6.93 6.83 | Average 3/| 7.63 7.22 7.14 2/ 8.80 7.72 7.57 7.72 7.54 7.34 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average weekly announced world price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 | 1997/98 Country ---------|--------- 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 or as of | as of region 4/29/99 | 4/29/98 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 307 | 303 324 342 417 474 Other Western Europe 20 | 17 17 16 19 22 Turkey 84 | 82 115 202 187 259 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 4 34 58 Former Soviet Union 0 | 2 2 23 37 18 Japan 323 | 250 250 212 192 2 OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 175 | 192 183 315 344 525 Iran 0 | 0 0 0 72 191 Iraq 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 41 | 41 42 56 22 62 Indonesia 26 | 0 0 76 15 0 Saudi Arabia 83 | 119 96 168 130 153 Syria 0 | 5 11 25 1 28 AFRICA 135 | 148 171 205 324 257 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 31 31 31 82 57 Ghana 51 | 59 64 33 48 7 Senegal 0 | 0 0 0 5 28 South Africa 68 | 52 67 114 147 113 WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,568 | 1,478 1,718 934 1,010 1,585 Brazil 555 | 1 28 1 1 368 Canada 123 | 109 107 109 107 127 Colombia 11 | 192 297 34 28 0 Costa Rica 41 | 101 102 55 110 65 Dominican Republic 61 | 93 93 19 3 40 Ecuador 0 | 151 148 0 0 0 Guatemala 26 | 29 25 32 31 23 Haiti 139 | 73 100 86 121 148 Honduras 44 | 56 63 52 30 29 Jamaica 15 | 13 26 28 80 74 Leeward & Windward Is. 13 | 19 16 17 22 17 Mexico 311 | 343 397 309 318 327 Nicaragua 45 | 27 35 68 29 39 Panama 6 | 88 88 0 0 17 Peru 101 | 87 99 46 36 77 El Salvador 33 | 58 49 22 30 37 Trinidad 23 | 21 21 21 27 34 | TOTAL 2,612 | 2,512 2,780 2,254 2,564 3,201 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Census Bureau 2/ 2,780| 2,780 3,186 2,713 2,878 3,604 Difference 4/ 412 | 406 459 313 403 ============================================================================ --continued "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid shipments. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1993/94 to 1997/98. Table 5--U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Vietnam -------------------------- ---------------------------------- ------- Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% market grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ----------- A1 7/ broken year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1987/88 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 Aug 1997 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep 1997 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct 1997 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov 1997 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 241 Dec 1997 419 397 463 274 269 255 228 193 270 Jan 1998 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 262 Feb 1998 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar 1998 410 392 445 306 284 278 235 193 280 Apr 1998 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May 1998 408 386 441 328 299 299 248 197 NQ Jun 1998 408 395 441 338 315 311 256 209 304 Jul 1998 408 402 441 337 315 304 255 211 305 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 283 283 267 245 233 257 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 222 May 1999 347 474 408 248 248 225 198 182 225 1998/99 377 461 421 288 282 265 239 220 262 ============================================================================== NQ = No quote. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent broken. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 22.0 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 150.0 Imports 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.0 8.3 8.3 Total supply 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.5 146.6 164.3 180.3 Domestic use 4/ 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.9 62.5 71.8 73.5 Exports 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 69.7 70.5 67.0 Total use 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.4 132.2 142.3 140.5 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 22.0 39.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.3 7.6 11.9 10.8 15.4 28.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Continued--- Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present--continued 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 7.4 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 57.0 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.8 59.9 65.9 Domestic use 4/ 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.1 44.0 38.0 39.1 Exports 19.6 18.6 18.1 22.0 15.5 14.5 17.0 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.5 52.5 56.1 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 7.4 9.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.6 14.1 17.4 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending inventories of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE