RICE OUTLOOK July 13, 1999 July 1999, RCS-0799 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. RICE OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual RICE YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 will be released on November 18, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-RCS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: The 1999 U.S. crop is projected at a record 211 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month's projection, a result of slightly larger plantings and a higher yield projection. U.S. ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 55.6 million cwt, up 9 percent from last month's projection, a result of greater supplies, and 80 percent larger than a year earlier. The 1999/2000 season-average farm price was lowered 50 cents on both the high and low end to $5.50 to $6.50 per cwt, compared with this year's revised $8.70 to $8.80. Global 1998/99 ending stocks were lowered more than 4 percent to 47.1 million tons, the lowest since 1987/88. The first projection for calendar year 2000 pegs global trade at 22.4 million tons, up marginally from this year but 5 million tons below the 1998 record. U.S. 1999 CROP PROJECTION RAISED TO RECORD 211 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. rice crop is projected at a record 211 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month and 12 percent larger than a year earlier. The increase is due to a 20,000 acre increase in area and a 1 percent boost in projected yield. The current yield estimate-- 5,902 pounds per acre--is based on a 5-year Olympic average (dropping high and low) weighted by State and grain type. On August 12, USDA will forecast rice production based on yields from farm operator surveys. The June Acreage report estimates 1999/2000 U.S. plantings at 3.6 million acres, the second highest on record and slightly above the March Planting Prospectives. All of the month-to-month increase was for medium and short grain, with medium grain revised 60,000 to 823,000 acres and short grain up 10,000 to 52,000 acres. Medium grain plantings were reported higher in California and the South. Although still a record, the projection for long grain area was lowered 50,000 acres to 2.75 million because of reduced plantings in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. Imports for 1999/2000 are revised up 250,000 cwt to a record 10.25 million. The increase follows a similar increase for 1998/99. Beginning stocks are estimated at 30.9 million cwt, marginally above last month's projection and up 11 percent from a year earlier. Total U.S. supply is projected at a record 252.2 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month's projection and 12 percent larger than in 1998/99. There were no monthly revisions in domestic use or exports. In contrast to the large year-to-year increase in supplies, total use is projected to increase less than 1 percent to 196.6 million cwt, as stronger domestic use is nearly offset by weaker exports. Total domestic use (excluding residual or unreported loss) is projected to rise almost 3 percent to a record 107.1 million cwt, with food use accounting for all of the expansion. In contrast to domestic use, exports are projected to drop 1 million cwt to 84 million, as expanding milled shipments do not fully compensate for a substantial drop in rough rice exports. For 1999/2000, U.S. rough rice exports are projected at 15 million cwt, down from the near-record 26 million a year earlier. The 42- percent drop is primarily due to smaller imports by Brazil--a result of a bumper crop--and record crops in Argentina and Uruguay, Brazil's principal suppliers. In 1998/99, Brazil accounted for almost half of all U.S. rough rice exports. Several other South American countries are also expected to import less rice in 1999. Milled exports are projected to rise 17 percent to 69 million cwt, the largest since 1995/96 and the first increase since 1994/95. Lower prices and larger food aid shipments are behind the expected rise. Ending stocks are projected to rise 80 percent to 55.6 million cwt, as total supply outstrips the rise in total use. Ending stocks would be the largest since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 28.3 percent, up from 15.9 a year earlier and the largest since 1985/86. LARGER AREA BOOSTS MEDIUM/SHORT GRAIN CROP TO 62 MILLION CWT The combined medium/short grain crop is projected at 62 million cwt, up 5 million from last month's projection and a third larger than 1998. Medium/short grain production would be the largest since 1994/95. The year-to-year crop expansion is due to much larger plantings in both California and the South. California's 1999 medium area is estimated at 515,000 acres, up 80,000 from 1998's weather reduced plantings. The South also expanded medium grain plantings, with area up 65,000 acres to 308,000, a response to much higher prices for medium grain than long grain rice. Short grain plantings are reported up 37 percent from a year earlier to 52,000 acres, with California accounting for all of the increase and most of the plantings. Carryin remains projected at just 7.4 million cwt, down 40 percent from a year earlier and the smallest beginning stocks since supply and use tables were first reported by grain type in 1982/83. Total supplies are projected at 70.6 million cwt, up almost 8 percent from last month due to the larger crop and 18 percent larger than a year earlier. Total use is projected to rise to 56.1 million cwt, up 7 percent from 1998/99. Domestic use is projected to increase 3 percent to 39.1 million, and exports are projected to rise 17 percent to 17 million cwt. With total supplies rising much faster than total use, ending stocks are projected to nearly double to 14.5 million cwt, the largest since 1994/95. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise nearly 12 percentage points to 25.9 percent. Although up substantially from a year earlier, projected stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are similar to 1994/95 to 1997/98 levels. The 1999 U.S. long grain crop is projected at 149 million cwt, down 1 million from last month's projection but still 5 percent above a year earlier and the largest on record. The month-to-month reduction is primarily due to a slight drop in plantings from the March planting intentions report. Beginning stocks were raised slightly to 22.5 million cwt, up 57 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1987/88. Imports were revised up fractionally to a record 9.1 million cwt. Total long supplies are projected at a record 180.5 million cwt, down fractionally from last month's projection due to the slightly smaller crop. On a year-to-year basis, total long grain supplies are up 10 percent due to a larger carryin, a small increase in imports, and a record crop. In contrast to the larger supplies, total use is projected to drop more than 1 percent to 140.5 million cwt, as a small expansion in domestic use is more than offset by a 5 percent drop in exports to 67 million cwt, the lowest since 1996/97. This raises ending stocks 83 percent to 40.2 million cwt, the largest since 1985/86. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 28.5 percent, up from 15.8 percent a year earlier and the largest since 1985/86. Both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are down slightly from last month's projection. The 1999 harvest has begun on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts and will begin in the Delta in August. As of July 11, 21 percent had headed, compared with 27 a year earlier and a 18 percent 5- average. Through July 11, conditions were quite favorable across all States, with 78 percent of the crop reported in good or excellent condition and just 1 percent reported in poor condition. A year earlier just 62 percent was rated good to excellent. To date, growing conditions have been ideal or almost ideal in most areas. The only revision to 1998/99 supply and use projection was a 250,000 cwt--all long grain--increase in imports to 10 million, based on shipments through April. The larger import forecast caused both total and long grain ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratios to rise slightly. PACE OF U.S. EXPORTS AND EXPORT SALES REMAINS SLOW Through July 1, exports and outstanding sales totaled 2.92 million tons (product-weight), 1 percent above a year earlier. The pace of U.S. exports and sales has slowed substantially since mid-April. Through April, exports and outstanding sales were well ahead of a year earlier, a result of massive rough rice imports by Brazil early in the market year. But by late 1998 the Brazilian business was complete. And since April, the U.S. has faced competition from South American exporters who have already made sales to Mexico and Costa Rica. Milled exports and sales are almost 1 percent behind a year earlier, with medium grain 32 percent behind and long grain almost 13 percent ahead. In the past 2 months there has been little new milled export sales except purchases for food aid. As of July 1, total outstanding sales amounted to just 213,400 tons, compared with 301,300 a year earlier. Recent food aid announcements are expected to impact 1999/2000 exports. First, in late June USDA issued a purchase authorization for Indonesia's $41 million Title I sales agreement. The purchase authorization provides for about 115,000 tons of milled or brown rice. The delivery would occur July 20 through December 31. Also, in early July USDA doubled the value of a PL 480 agreement signed with Jamaica, allowing the country to buy a total of 31,000 tons of rice, about half of which has already been purchased. U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE TO DROP IN 1999/2000 The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.50 to $6.50 per cwt, down 50 cents on both the high and low end from last month's projection. The downward revision is largely the result of larger supplies. This is the lowest SAFP since 1992/93. The 1998/99 U.S. SAFP is projected at $8.70 to $8.80 per cwt, down 5 cents on the low end and 15 on the high end from last month. The revision is based on monthly cash prices, which averaged $8.84 through mid-May. Monthly cash prices continue to weaken in the face of a reduced pace of export sales and expectations of record supplies in 1999/2000. Last month, USDA estimated June's midmonth price at $8.09 per cwt and lowered May's average to $8.16 from a preliminary $8.44. Monthly cash prices are the lowest in almost 4 years. Long grain cash prices have steadily dropped since mid-September, and are currently quoted around $7.25 per cwt in the Delta, down slightly from a month earlier and down about $1.75 since January. There have been very few reported sales in Texas after April, and business is generally light across the South. In contrast to declining long grain prices, southern medium grain prices have strengthened since the start of the 1998/99 season. California medium grain farm prices were reported at nearly $11 per cwt in early May. However, very little has been marketed since then as most 1998/99 California sales are complete. In the South, medium grain prices were reported at around $9.50 per cwt in early May, with little marketed since then. THAI EXPORT PRICES STRENGTHEN ON HEAVY LOADINGS Over the past week Thai export prices for most grades of rice rose $6 to $10 per ton on heavy loadings to Indonesia, Iran, and Iraq. Prices had dropped around $5 per ton in late-June and early July in the absence of major new sales. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $266 per ton for the week ending July 13, up from $258 a week earlier. Thai prices rose from mid-May through mid-June, largely a result of a 300,000 ton sale to Iran, with prices averaging $262 in June. Short-term movements in quoted Thai prices are currently very responsive to immediate sales and loadings. With a larger than expected Thai second crop, and expectations of large export supplies worldwide in 1999/2000, there appears to be little potential for long-term price strength. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have fallen since mid-June in the face of few new orders, a bumper Winter- Spring harvest, and expectations of a large Summer-Autumn harvest this month. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $230 per ton for the week ending July 6, down $5 from a week a earlier and $10 from mid-June. In early July Vietnamese rice was quoted at about $21 per ton below similar grades of Thai rice. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) have dropped since late January and were quoted at $331 per ton for the week ending July 12, unchanged from June but down from $345 in May. Declining U.S. milled long grain prices are the result of very little export business beyond food aid purchases and expectations of extremely large supplies in 1999/2000. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice has generally contracted since April as U.S. prices have dropped and Thai prices generally strengthened. As of July 12, the difference was $65 per ton, down from $72 in June and $93 in May. However the difference will have to narrow substantially for the U.S. to be competitive with Thailand or any Asian exporter in the higher income markets in the Middle East and Africa. In sharp contrast to declining prices for southern long grain, prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have been very strong throughout 1998/99. Prices are currently quoted at $518 per ton bagged, up from $506 in June and $474 in May. Prices are the highest since the spring of 1994 when Japan began making its emergency import purchases. BUMPER CROPS PROJECTED FOR MAJOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 389.9 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from a month earlier but almost 2 percent larger than the 1998/99 crop. Total consumption for 1999/2000 is projected at a record 392.6 million tons, up 3.6 million from last month and almost 2 percent higher than a year earlier. Ending stocks are forecast at 47.1 million tons, down more than 2.1 million tons from last month's projection--due to larger use--and 5 percent below a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 12 percent, up from 12.7 percent a month earlier and 12.9 percent in 1998/99. Although the stocks-to-use ratio in 1999/2000 would be the lowest since 1972/73, little upward price pressure is expected as record or near-record crops are projected in nearly all major importing countries, and all major exporters are expected to have ample supplies. China accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year production increase. Its crop is projected to increase 5 million tons to 138 million, the second largest on record. The larger crop is a result of both higher yields and larger area. Several other exporters are also expected to produce near-record crops. The U.S. is projected to produce a 6.89 million ton crop, up 750,000 tons from 1998 and the second largest on record. Thailand's crop is projected at 14.7 million tons, up 400,000. And Burma's production is projected to rise 250,000 tons to 9.55 million. India's crop is projected to remain at a record 84 million tons. Egypt and Italy--small exporters--are expected to produce larger crops in 1999/2000. On the import side, the Philippines is projected to produce a record 7.28 million ton crop, up 630,000 tons from 1998/99. Bangladesh's crop is projected at 19.5 million ton crop, a record, and up 400,000 tons. In contrast, in South America several major producers are projected to harvest smaller crops in 1999/2000. Brazil, the region's largest producer, is projected to produce a 7.4 million ton crop, down 250,000 from the near-record 1999 crop, as yields contract from the 1999 record. Argentina's production is expected to drop 175,000 tons from its 1998 record to 850,000 as area shifts in response to lower prices. Uruguay's production is projected at 850,000, down 45,000 from this year's record, with area down also. The bulk of the South American harvest occurs March to May. Production in the Middle East is expected to fall also. Iran is projected to produce a 1.6 million ton crop, down 150,000 from 1998/99 due to severe drought. Iraq's and Turkey's crops are projected to drop as well. All three of these countries are importers. For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at 382.8 million tons, up slightly from last month's projection. Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Uruguay account for most of the upward revision. CALENDER YEAR 2000 TRADE PROJECTED AT 22.4 MILLION TONS The first projections for 2000 peg trade at 22.4 million tons (milled basis), up marginally from this year and the second highest on record. Trade remains 5 million tons below the 1998 record of 27.4 million tons. Export supplies are expected to be plentiful in Asia. Thailand and China are projected to expand exports slightly, to 5.7 million and 1.9 million tons, a result of larger crops. Vietnam's exports are projected to remain at 3.5 million tons and Pakistan's at 2 million. And while India's exports are projected to drop 300,000 tons to 2.2 million, it is primarily due to much weaker demand from Bangladesh, not lack of supplies. Burma's exports are projected at 225,000 tons, the largest since 1996. U.S. exports are projected to increase 250,000 tons to 3 million due to larger supplies and lower prices. In contrast, South American exports are projected to decline due to smaller crops. Argentina's and Uruguay's exports are each projected to drop 25,000 tons to 600,000 and 700,000. Australia's exports are projected to remain at a record 700,000 tons. On the import side, major decreases are projected in Asia as large or record crops are harvested in several major importer countries. Bangladesh's imports are projected to drop 300,000 tons to 1 million, and the Philippines' imports are projected to drop 300,000 tons to 900,000. Both countries are projected to produce record crops in 1999/2000. Indonesia's imports are projected to remain at 2.5 million tons with a bumper 1999/2000 crop projected. In contrast, small increases are projected for Japan and South Korea, a result of WTO-GATT minimum access requirements. Larger imports are projected for China, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and North Korea. Imports are projected to increase outside Asia. Brazil's imports are projected to increase 150,000 tons to 1 million, a result of a smaller crop. Mexico's are up 40,000 tons to 365,000, a result of stagnant production. Peru's, Colombia's, and Haiti's imports are all projected flat. In the Middle East, imports are projected to rise substantially in 2000. Iran's imports are projected at 900,000 tons, up 250,000 from 1999, the result of a severe drought. Turkey's imports are projected to rise 100,000 tons to 350,000 as its crop is also down. Saudi Arabia's imports are projected to rise 50,000 tons to 800,000, primarily a result of greater consumption. Iraq's imports are projected to remain at 700,000 tons. Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on July 14, 1999 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on August 13, 1999. The report, along with the 1998 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports and yearbooks, may be accessed on the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. NOTE: To order printed copies of the 1998 Rice Yearbook, call 1-800-999-6779. The summary of the 1999 Rice Yearbook will be released on November 18, 1999. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1996/97 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1994/95 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ =========================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.600 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.575 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,902 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 30.9 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 211.0 Imports 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.2 10.0 10.3 Total supply 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.6 219.4 225.7 252.2 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 83.0 85.0 88.0 Seed 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.7 Brewer's use 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ 11.6 8.2 7.3 1.2 4.4 5.5 5.5 Domestic use 101.4 100.7 104.6 101.0 106.5 109.8 112.6 Exports 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 85.2 85.0 84.0 Rough 3.5 17.7 10.6 12.6 26.1 26.0 15.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 81.2 72.4 65.9 59.1 59.0 69.0 Total use 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.4 191.7 194.8 196.6 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 30.9 55.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 14.4 15.9 28.3 $/cwt 8.70 5.50 Average farm to to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.80 6.50 Average Percent milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 72.0 72.0 72.0 =========================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year(August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings,rough equivalent, 1996/97 to present ============================================================================ | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================ | August | 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 10.10 10,520 September | 9.35 9,502 9.92 12,204 10.00 13,478 October | 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 9.66 11,988 November | 8.98 11,882 9.82 11,191 9.41 11,768 December | 9.06 13,728 9.77 12,540 9.82 12,758 January | 9.05 13,705 9.57 13,416 9.95 15,927 February | 8.97 13,033 9.75 10,679 10.10 12,086 March | 8.86 12,792 9.67 10,474 10.20 10,133 April | 8.54 9,428 9.40 10,802 10.30 9,902 May | 8.16 9,493 9.38 10,357 10.20 7,969 June | 8.09 1/ 11,510 1/ 9.58 11,061 9.90 7,092 July | 9.58 9,290 10.00 9,421 | Average 2/ | 8.84 11,510 9.70 11,093 9.96 11,087 | Total 3/ | 8.70-8.80 4/ 126,605 133,116 133,042 =========================================================================== 1/ Midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 1998/99 through June only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1998/99 is through June only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1996/97 to 1998/99 1/ ============================================================================ | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month |-------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August |8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 7.79 7.93 7.63 September |8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 7.66 7.89 7.60 October |8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 7.48 7.82 7.52 November |8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 7.18 7.67 7.37 December |7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 7.25 7.71 7.41 January |7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 7.54 7.74 7.48 February |7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 7.72 7.67 7.53 March |6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 7.43 7.59 7.45 April |6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 7.14 7.26 7.12 May |6.48 6.75 6.80 8.79 7.81 7.63 8.38 7.21 7.09 June |6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 8.50 7.11 7.00 July 2/ |6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 8.58 6.93 6.83 | Average 3/|7.45 7.14 7.08 2/ 8.80 7.72 7.57 7.72 7.54 7.34 ============================================================================ 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/Simple average. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================ 1998/99 | 1997/98 Country ----------|---------- 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 or as of | as of region 7/1/99 | 7/1/98 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================ | 1,000 metric tons European Union 354 | 370 324 342 417 474 Other Western Europe 21 | 19 17 16 19 22 Turkey 105 | 130 115 202 187 259 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 4 34 58 Former Soviet Union 48 | 2 2 23 37 18 Japan 324 | 250 250 212 192 2 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 201 | 222 183 315 344 525 Iran 0 | 0 0 0 72 191 Iraq 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 41 | 41 42 56 22 62 Indonesia 26 | 0 0 76 15 0 Saudi Arabia 105 | 136 96 168 130 153 Syria 0 | 11 11 25 1 28 | AFRICA 168 | 172 171 205 324 257 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 31 31 31 82 57 Ghana 60 | 64 64 33 48 7 South Africa 93 | 67 67 114 147 113 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,696 | 1,708 1,718 934 1,010 1,585 Brazil 555 | 28 28 1 1 368 Canada 137 | 123 107 109 107 127 Colombia 11 | 297 297 34 28 0 Costa Rica 41 | 102 102 55 110 65 Dominican Republic 61 | 93 93 19 3 40 Ecuador 0 | 144 148 0 0 0 Guatemala 31 | 25 25 32 31 23 Haiti 160 | 92 100 86 121 148 Honduras 49 | 62 63 52 30 29 Jamaica 15 | 26 26 28 80 74 Leeward & Windward Is. 13 | 19 16 17 22 17 Mexico 369 | 386 397 309 318 327 Nicaragua 61 | 28 35 68 29 39 Panama 7 | 88 88 0 0 17 Peru 104 | 96 99 46 36 77 El Salvador 31 | 51 49 22 30 37 Trinidad 23 | 23 21 21 27 34 TOTAL 2,925 | 2,894 2,780 2,254 2,564 3,201 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Census Bureau 2/ 2,780 | 2,780 3/ 3,186 2,713 2,878 3,604 Difference 4/ 412 | 406 459 313 403 ============================================================================ "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid shipments. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1993/94 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present =========================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Viet- ------------------------- --------------------------------- nam 6/ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ----------- A 1 7/ 5% year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special broken =========================================================================== $ per metric tons (bagged) 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 Aug 1997 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep 1997 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct 1997 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov 1997 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 241 Dec 1997 419 397 463 274 269 255 228 193 270 Jan 1998 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 262 Feb 1998 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar 1998 410 392 445 306 284 278 235 193 280 Apr 1998 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May 1998 408 386 441 328 299 299 248 197 NQ Jun 1998 408 395 441 338 315 311 256 209 304 Jul 1998 408 402 441 337 315 304 255 211 305 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 257 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 262 250 241 220 209 230 1998/99 8/ 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 =========================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly prices quotes. 2/ Lowest price quote offered. 3/Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ =========================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 22.5 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 149.0 Imports 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.0 8.8 9.1 Total supply 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.5 146.6 164.8 180.5 Domestic use 4/ 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.9 62.5 71.8 73.5 Exports 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 69.7 70.5 67.0 Total use 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.4 132.2 142.3 140.5 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 22.5 40.0 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.3 7.6 11.9 10.8 15.8 28.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Continued--Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/--continued ========================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 7.4 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 62.0 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.8 59.9 70.6 Domestic use 4/ 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.1 44.0 38.0 39.1 Exports 19.6 18.6 18.1 22.0 15.5 14.5 17.0 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.5 52.5 56.1 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 7.4 14.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.6 14.1 25.9 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 =========================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending inventories of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE