RICE OUTLOOK August 13, 1999 August 1999, RCS-0899 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. RICE OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual RICE YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 will be released on November 18, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-RCS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1999 U.S. crop is projected at a record 214.2 million cwt, up 3.2 million from last month's projection, a result of a slightly higher yield projection. o U.S. 1999/2000 rice exports are projected at 85 million cwt, up 1 million from last month--all rough rice--and identical to a year earlier. o U.S. ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 58.3 million cwt, up 5 percent from last month's projection, a result of greater supplies, and 87 percent larger than a year earlier. o The 1999/2000 season-average farm price is projected at $5.50 to $6.00 per cwt, down 50 cents on the high end from last month and well below 1998/99's revised price of $8.80. o Global rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 391.16 million tons, up 1.2 million from last month, with India, Vietnam, and Egypt accounting for the increase. o Global rice trade for both 1999 and 2000 was raised 550,000 tons from last month to 22.7 and 23 million. Vietnam's and China's export projections were raised for both years. o Global 1999/2000 ending stocks were raised more than 1 million tons to 48.1 million, primarily due to larger stock projections for Indonesia, Argentina, and the United States. U.S. 1999 CROP PROJECTION RAISED TO RECORD 214 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. rice crop is forecast at a record 214.2 million cwt, up almost 2 percent from last month and 14 percent larger than a year earlier. Long grain accounts for all of the month-to-month increase. The monthly revision stems from a 91-pound increase in average yield to 5,993 pounds per acre, second only to the 1996 record of 6,120 pounds. Total plantings remain estimated at 3.6 million acres, the second highest on record. This is USDA's first survey-based yield estimate for the 1999 crop. USDA will continue to revise the 1999 crop forecasts throughout the growing season. All six rice producing States are expected to produce larger crops this year, with records projected for Arkansas, California, Louisiana, and Missouri. Production is expected to expand the most in California, rising 34 percent to 43.7 million cwt, a result of substantially higher area and yield. California suffered severe weather problems in 1998. Production in Arkansas is estimated at 96.8 million cwt, up 9 percent, a result of larger plantings and a slightly higher yield. Louisiana's crop is projected at 31.6 million cwt, up 12 percent from 1998 as both area and yield are larger. Rice production in Mississippi is projected at 17.3 million cwt, 6 percent below the 1994 record but up 11 percent from a year earlier due to greater plantings. Yields are estimated unchanged from 1998. Missouri is projected to harvest a 7.9- million-ton crop, up more than 6 percent from 1998, a result of expanded acreage. Average yield is actually expected to drop slightly. The Texas rice crop projected to rise 7 percent to 16.9 million cwt. The increase is due to an almost 13-percent higher yield as plantings are 5 percent below a year ago. U.S. rice imports for 1999/2000 are revised up 250,000 cwt to a record 10.5 million. The increase follows a similar increase for 1998/99. Beginning stocks are estimated at 31.2 million cwt, marginally above last month's projection and up almost 13 percent from a year earlier. Total U.S. supply is projected at a record 255.9 million cwt, up more than 1 percent from last month's projection and more than 13 percent larger than in 1998/99. In contrast to the 13 percent year-to-year increase in supplies, total use in 1999/2000 is projected to increase just 1 percent to 197.6 million cwt. Total domestic use (excluding residual or unreported loss) is projected to rise almost 3 percent to a record 107.1 million cwt, with food use accounting for all of the expansion. Exports were raised 1 million cwt from last month to 85 million cwt, identical to 1998/99. The stronger export forecast is the result of larger supplies and lower expected prices, with rough rice accounting for all of the upward revision. Rough rice exports are projected at 16 million tons, up 1 million from last month but 10 million below a year earlier. The 38- percent drop is primarily due to smaller imports by Brazil. In 1998/99, Brazil accounted for almost half of all U.S. rough rice exports. Several other South American countries are also expected to import less rice in 1999. Milled exports remain projected at 69 million cwt, up 17 percent from a year earlier. The increase is based on expectations of lower U.S. prices and larger food aid shipments. Ending stocks are projected at 58.3 million cwt, up 5 percent from a last month and 87 percent larger than a year earlier, as total supply outstrips the rise in total use. These are the largest ending stocks since 1985/86. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 29.5 percent, up from 28.3 last month and last year's 16 percent. The stocks-to-use ratio would be the largest since 1986/87. LONG GRAIN ENDING STOCKS PROJECTED TO EXCEED 43 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. long grain crop is projected at a record 152.5 million cwt, up 3.5 million from last month's projection and almost 8 percent above a year earlier. Beginning stocks for 1999/2000 were raised slightly to 22.7 million cwt, up 59 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1987/88. Imports were revised up fractionally to a record 9.3 million cwt. Total long grain supplies are projected at a record 184.6 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month's projection and 12 percent larger than a year earlier. In contrast to expanding supplies, use is projected to contract. Total use in 1999/2000 is projected at 141.5 million cwt, up fractionally from last month but slightly below a year earlier. Domestic use is projected to expand 2 percent from a year earlier to a record 73.5 million cwt. In contrast, exports are projected at 68 million cwt, up 1 million from last month but nearly 4 percent below a year earlier. This raises ending stocks 90 percent to 43.1 million cwt, the largest since 1985/86. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 30.4 percent, up from 16 percent a year earlier and the largest since 1985/86. Both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are up a little from last month's projection. The combined medium/short grain crop is projected at 61.7 million cwt, down slightly from last month's projection but 33 percent larger than in 1998. Medium/short grain production would be the largest since 1994/95. The year-to-year expansion is due to much larger plantings in both California and the South. Short grain plantings are reported up 37 percent from a year earlier to 52,000 acres, with California accounting for all of the increase and most of the plantings. Medium/short grain beginning stocks remain projected at just 7.4 million cwt, down 40 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since supply and use were first reported by grain type in 1982/83. Total supplies are projected at 70.3 million cwt, down fractionally from last month due to the smaller crop but 17 percent larger than a year earlier. Total use of medium/short grain rice remains projected at 56.1 million cwt, up 7 percent from 1998/99. Domestic use is projected to increase 3 percent to 39.1 million, and exports are projected to rise 17 percent to 17 million cwt. With supplies rising much faster than total use, ending stocks are projected to nearly double to 14.2 million cwt, the largest since 1994/95. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise more than 11 percentage points to 25.3 percent. Although up substantially from a year earlier, projected stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are similar to levels reported from 1994/95 through 1997/98. As of August 8, the 1999 U.S. rice harvest was more than half complete in Louisiana and more than a fourth complete in Texas, both well ahead of their 5-year averages. The harvest had not begun in the Delta or California. As of August 8, 69 percent of the U.S. crop had headed, slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Through August 8, conditions were quite favorable across all States, with 79 percent of the crop reported in good or excellent condition and just 2 percent reported in poor condition. A week earlier 77 percent was rated good to excellent. To date, growing conditions have been ideal or almost ideal in most areas. The only revision to 1998/99 supply and use projections was a 250,000-cwt--all long grain-- increase in imports to 10.25 million, based on shipments through May. The larger import forecast caused both total and long grain ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratios to rise slightly. FOOD AID CRITICAL TO 1999/2000 U.S. EXPORT PICTURE Two recent food aid announcements have added needed support to the U.S. milled rice export situation. First, on August 5 Indonesia issued a tender for its 1999 PL 480 allocation for up to 140,000 tons for delivery in September or October. Second, on August 6 Russia's buying agency issued a tender for the balance of its PL 480 Title I allocations of 52,015 tons. Delivery is set for September 10-30. These two large milled rice tenders are a main factor supporting cash prices in the face of a record crop being harvested. In addition, on August 3 USDA made its quarterly adjustment to its world price equation. This resulted in a about $2-per-cwt (whole kernel basis) drop in the announced world price which led to loan deficiency payments of $1.24 per cwt for long grain rice and more than $1 for medium and short grain. The 1999/2000 export forecast of 85 million cwt assumes greater food aid shipments and strong price competitiveness with major Asian exporters. U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE TO DROP IN 1999/2000 The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.50 to $6.00 per cwt, down 50 cents on the high end from last month's projection and well below 1998/99's revised $8.80. The 1999/2000 SAFP price is the lowest since 1992/93. Through mid-July reported monthly cash prices have shown only modest weakness despite expectations of record U.S. supplies in 1999/2000. Last month, USDA estimated July's midmonth price at $8.16 per cwt and raised June's average to $8.20 from a preliminary $8.09. Although reported monthly cash prices are the lowest in almost 4 years, prices have dropped only slightly since late spring. Long grain cash prices have dropped substantially since mid- September, and are currently quoted a little below $7.00 per cwt in the Delta, down slightly from last month and down about $2 since January. Prices are slightly lower on the Gulf Coast. Business is generally light across the South. In contrast to declining long grain prices, medium grain prices strengthened during the first 9 months of the 1998/99 season. California medium grain farm prices were reported at nearly $11 per cwt in early May. However, very little has been marketed since then as most 1998/99 California sales are complete. In the South, medium grain prices were reported at around $9.50 per cwt in early May, with little marketed since then. THAI AND VIET TRADING PRICES REMAIN STEADY ON STRONG SHIPMENTS Thai export prices for most grades of rice have remained steady over the past month on heavy loadings to Indonesia and Iran. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $258 per ton for the week ending August 10, unchanged from a week earlier and almost identical to the July average. Prices were slightly higher in June. Short-term movements in quoted Thai prices are currently very responsive to immediate sales and loadings. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have remained steady since the beginning of July given heavy loadings for Indonesia and the Middle East in the face of a bumper winter-spring harvest and expectations of a large summer-autumn crop. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens have been reported at $230 per ton since early July, down $5 to $10 per ton from June. Heavy rains in the Mekong River Delta are disrupting rice loadings and transporting. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) have dropped since late January and were quoted at $325 per ton for the week ending August 9, down from $331 a week earlier and $345 in May. U.S. milled prices have declined since the start of the 1998/99 market year. Recent declines stem from little milled export business beyond food aid purchases and expectations of record supplies in 1999/2000. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice has generally contracted since April as U.S. prices have dropped and Thai prices have strengthened. As of August 10, the difference was $67 per ton, down slightly from about $72 in June and July, and below the May average of $92. However, the difference will have to narrow substantially more for the U.S. to be competitive with Thailand in the higher income markets in the Middle East and Africa. In sharp contrast to declining prices for southern long grain, prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have been very strong throughout 1998/99. Prices are currently quoted at $518 per ton bagged, up from $506 in June and $474 in May. Prices are the highest since the spring of 1994 when Japan began making its emergency import purchases. Little 1998 California medium grain remains for export markets. GLOBAL CROP PROJECTIONS RAISED FOR 1998/99 AND 1999/2000 For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 391.2 million tons (milled basis), up 1.2 million from a month earlier and almost 2 percent larger than the 1998/99 crop. Total consumption is projected at a record 393.5 million tons, fractionally above last month and almost 2 percent higher than a year earlier. Ending stocks are forecast at 48.1 million tons, up more than 1 million tons from last month's projection--due to larger crops--but almost 5 percent below a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 12.2 percent, up slightly from a month earlier but below 13 percent in 1998/99. Although the stocks-to-use ratio in 1999/2000 would be the lowest since 1972/73, little upward price pressure is expected as record or near-record crops are projected in several major importing countries, and all major exporters are expected to have large crops and ample supplies. Several major exporters account for the bulk of the month-to-month production increase. India's crop is projected at 84.5 million tons, up 500,000 from last month, a result of a 1.5-million-hectare increase in area. Vietnam's production was raised 500,000 tons to a record 19.4 million, a result of larger plantings. Outside of Asia, Egypt's crop was revised up 150,000 tons to 3.2 million on larger plantings, and the U.S. crop was raised almost 2 percent to a record 7 million. For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at 384 million tons, up 1.2 million from last month's projection but down slightly from a year earlier. India accounts for the bulk of the month-to- month increase, with production raised 740,000 tons to a record 84.74 million, as planted area was raised nearly 1.8 million hectares. Vietnam's crop was revised up 431,000 tons to 19.3 million due to greater plantings. (Vietnam's 1997/98 crop was revised up slightly as well.) Final data from the government of Argentina boosted production 55,000 tons to a record 1.08 million, a result of slightly higher area and yield. PROJECTIONS FOR 1999 AND 2000 WORLD RICE TRADE RAISED Total rice trade for calender year 2000 is projected at nearly 23 million tons, up 550,000 from last month's projection and slightly above 1999's revised level. Trade remains 4.5 million tons below the 1998 record of more than 27.4 million tons. China and Vietnam account for the bulk of the month-to-month revision in exports. China's exports are forecast at 2.1 million tons, up 200,000 from a month earlier, a result of larger 1999 exports. Vietnam's exports were raised 350,000 tons to a record 3.85 million, a result of a larger crop. Taiwan's exports were raised 50,000 tons to 150,000 based on larger 1999 exports. In contrast, Argentina's exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 500,000 based on smaller 1999 trade. In the import side, Indonesia's imports were raised 500,000 tons to 3 million. In contrast, China's imports were reduced 100,000 tons to 400,000 to match reductions in 1999 imports. Global rice trade in 1999 is revised up 550,000 tons to nearly 22.7 million tons. On the export side, Vietnam accounts for the bulk of the increase with projected exports up 350,000 tons to 3.85 million, a result of much larger than expected shipments to Indonesia and a bigger crop. China's exports were raised 250,000 tons to 2 million based on the pace through July. Finally, Taiwan's exports were raised 50,000 tons to 150,000 based on sales to date. In contrast, Argentina's export forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 525,000 due to weaker than expected sales in the first half of the year. On the import side, Indonesia's 1999 forecast was raised 1.2 million tons to 3.7 million--the second highest on record--a result of much stronger than expected public and private purchases to date. In contrast, weaker than expected imports of Thai fragrant rice are behind a 100,000 ton reduction in China's import forecast to 200,000 tons. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on August 16, 1999 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on September 13, 1999. The report, along with the 1998 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports and yearbooks, may be accessed on the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. NOTE: To order printed copies of the 1998 Rice Yearbook, call 1- 800-999-6779. The summary of the 1999 Rice Yearbook will be released on November 18, 1999. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1996/97 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.600 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.575 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,993 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 31.2 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 214.2 Imports 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.2 10.3 10.5 Total supply 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.6 219.4 226.0 255.9 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 83.0 85.0 88.0 Seed 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.7 Brewer's use 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ 11.6 8.2 7.3 1.2 4.4 5.5 5.5 Domestic use 101.4 100.7 104.6 101.0 106.5 109.8 112.6 Exports 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 85.2 85.0 85.0 Rough 3.5 17.7 10.6 12.6 26.1 26.0 16.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 81.2 72.4 65.9 59.1 59.0 69.0 Total use 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.4 191.7 194.8 197.6 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.7 31.2 58.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 14.4 16.0 29.5 $/cwt 5.50 Average farm to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.80 6.00 Percent Average milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 72.0 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Market year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1996/97 to present ============================================================================== | 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 Month | -------------------- ---------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 10.10 10,520 September | 9.35 9,502 9.92 12,204 10.00 13,478 October | 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 9.66 11,988 November | 8.98 11,882 9.82 11,191 9.41 11,768 December | 9.06 13,728 9.77 12,540 9.82 12,758 January | 9.05 13,705 9.57 13,416 9.95 15,927 February | 8.97 13,033 9.75 10,679 10.10 12,086 March | 8.86 12,792 9.67 10,474 10.20 10,133 April | 8.54 9,428 9.40 10,802 10.30 9,902 May | 8.16 9,493 9.38 10,357 10.20 7,969 June | 8.20 9,943 9.58 11,061 9.90 7,092 July | 8.16 1/ 11,367 1/ 9.58 9,290 10.00 9,421 | Average 2/ | 8.79 4/ 11,367 9.70 11,093 9.96 11,087 | Total 3/ | 8.80 5/ 136,405 4/ 133,116 133,042 | ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1998/99 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1998/99 is August to current month only. 4/ Preliminary. 5/ USDA season average price forecast. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/2000 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt | August | 5.42 5.09 4.99 2/ 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3/| 5.42 5.09 4.99 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/00 | 1998/99 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 8/5/99 | 8/5/98 Prelim. Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 54 | 56 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 2 | 8 20 17 16 19 Turkey 0 | 20 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 5 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 1 | 2 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 12 | 48 203 183 315 344 Iran 0 | 0 0 0 0 72 Iraq 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 0 | 0 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 0 | 0 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 10 | 44 106 96 168 130 Syria 0 | 0 0 11 25 1 | AFRICA 40 | 23 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 11 | 5 61 64 33 48 South Africa 26 | 16 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 75 | 508 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 3 | 337 555 28 1 1 Canada 10 | 54 122 107 109 107 Colombia 0 | 10 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 0 | 0 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 0 | 0 61 93 19 3 Ecuador 0 | 0 0 148 0 0 Guatemala 2 | 0 29 25 32 31 Haiti 9 | 6 164 100 86 121 Honduras 5 | 10 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 0 | 0 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 5 | 10 11 16 17 22 Mexico 29 | 35 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 2 | 0 61 35 68 29 Panama 0 | 0 8 88 0 0 Peru 0 | 26 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 5 | 7 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 8 23 21 21 27 | TOTAL 192 | 705 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,780 3/| 2,780 3/ N/A 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 4/ | 406 459 313 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S.Census export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid shipments. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1995/96 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1992/93 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Vietnam ------------------------ -------------------------------- ------- Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% market grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ----------- A.1 7/ broken year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special 6/ ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 Aug 1997 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep 1997 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct 1997 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov 1997 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 241 Dec 1997 419 397 463 274 269 255 228 193 270 Jan 1998 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 262 Feb 1998 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar 1998 410 392 445 306 284 278 235 193 280 Apr 1998 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May 1998 408 386 441 328 299 299 248 197 NQ Jun 1998 408 395 441 338 315 311 256 209 304 Jul 1998 408 402 441 337 315 304 255 211 305 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 257 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 9/ 369 470 418 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 9/ 328 518 397 258 246 243 220 210 230 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered.3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent broken. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 22.7 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 152.5 Imports 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.0 9.1 9.3 Total supply 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.5 146.6 165.0 184.6 Domestic use 4/ 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.9 62.5 71.8 73.5 Exports 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 69.7 70.5 68.0 Total use 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.4 132.2 142.3 141.5 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.3 22.7 43.1 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.3 7.6 11.9 10.8 16.0 30.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 7.4 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 61.7 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.8 59.9 70.3 Domestic use 4/ 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.1 44.0 38.0 39.1 Exports 19.6 18.6 18.1 22.0 15.5 14.5 17.0 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.5 52.5 56.1 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 7.4 14.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.6 14.1 25.3 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending inventories of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE