RICE OUTLOOK September 13, 1999 September 1999, RCS-0999 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. RICE OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual RICE YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 will be released on November 18, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from the USDA Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-RCS-1999, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o U.S. 1998/99 ending stocks are estimated at 22 million cwt, down 9.2 million from last month's projection. The revision is based on data from NASS's August Rice Stocks. Total domestic and residual use was raised substantially due the smaller ending stocks. o The 1999 U.S. crop projection was lowered 2.1 million cwt to 212.1 million, a result of a lower yield and a fractional drop in harvested area. The crop is still a record. o U.S. ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 46.8 million cwt, down 20 percent from last month's projection but more than double the revised figure for 1998/99. o The 1999/2000 season-average farm price is projected at $5.75 to $6.25 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end from last month. o Global rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 392 million tons, up 1 million from last month, with Thailand, the Philippines, and Pakistan accounting for most of the increase. The 1998/99 crop was increased 2.8 million tons to 386.9 million. o Global rice trade for 1999 was raised 300,000 tons from last month to almost 23 million. Export projections were raised for Thailand and India, but lowered for Vietnam. o Global 1999/2000 ending stocks were raised 2.4 million tons to 50.5 million, primarily due to larger stock projections for China, Thailand, and the Philippines. U.S. 1998/99 ENDING STOCKS LOWERED 9 MILLION CWT TO 22 MILLION There were major revisions to the 1998/99 supply and use projections due to a substantial reduction in ending stocks reported by NASS. U.S. ending stocks for 1998/99 were lowered 9.2 million cwt to 22 million (rough-equivalent basis) based on data from NASS's August Rice Stocks. This resulted in a 9- percent increase in domestic and residual use to a record 119.5 million cwt, up 16 percent from a year earlier. Food use was lowered 1 million cwt to 84 million based on a reduced 1997/98 milling rate of 69.5 percent. The 1998/99 food use estimate was lowered to maintain the previous projected growth rate in milled consumption. Seed use was raised slightly due to a revised seeding rate. Long grain accounted for the bulk of the month-to-month stock revision. Long grain ending stocks were lowered 8.8 million cwt to 13.9 million. This led to a 13-percent increase in 1998/99 domestic and residual use to a record 81 million cwt, 35 percent higher than a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain ending stocks were lowered 500,000 cwt to 6.9 million, raising domestic and residual use slightly to 38.5 million cwt. U.S. 1999 CROP PROJECTION LOWERED TO 212 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. rice crop is forecast at 212.1 million cwt, still a record but down 2.1 million from last month's projection. Long grain accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month decrease. The monthly revision stems from a 26-pound decrease in average yield to 5,967 pounds per acre, and a 20,000-acre drop in harvested area all in Louisiana--to 3.56 million. Average yields were reduced 50 pounds per acre in Arkansas and Louisiana. Both area and yield are still the second highest on record, with production 13 percent larger than a year earlier. All six rice producing States are expected to produce larger crops in 1999 with records projected for Arkansas, California, Louisiana, and Missouri. Production is expected to expand the most in California, rising 34 percent to 43.7 million cwt, due to a substantially higher area and yield. Production in Arkansas is estimated at 95.9 million cwt, down almost 1 percent from last month's forecast but still nearly 9 percent larger than a year earlier, a result of larger plantings and a higher yield. Louisiana's crop is projected at 30.3 million cwt, down 4 percent from last month's forecast but up 8 percent from 1998 due to a higher yield and slightly larger area. Rice production in Mississippi is projected at 17.3 million cwt, 6 percent below the 1994 record but up 11 percent from a year earlier due to greater plantings. Yields are estimated unchanged from 1998. Missouri is projected to harvest a 7.9-million-ton crop, up more than 6 percent from 1998, a result of expanded acreage. Average yield is actually expected to drop slightly. The Texas rice crop is projected to rise 7 percent to 16.9 million cwt due to an almost 13-percent higher yield. U.S. rice imports for 1999/2000 are revised up 250,000 cwt to a record 10.75 million. The increase follows a similar increase for 1998/99. Beginning stocks are revised down 29 percent from last month's estimate to 22 million cwt, 21 percent below a year earlier. Total U.S. supply is projected at a record 244.8 million cwt, down 4 percent from last month's projection but more than 8 percent larger than in 1998/99. In contrast to the increase in supplies, total use in 1999/2000 is projected to drop 3 percent to 198 million cwt. Total domestic use (excluding residual or unreported loss) is projected at a record 106.5 million cwt, down slightly from last month but 3 percent above a year earlier. Food use is projected at a record 87 million cwt, down 1 million from last month's projection but up 3 million from a year earlier. The month-to- month drop is due to the lower 1997/98 milling yield which raised food use on a rough rice equivalent that year. Food use was adjusted to maintain the projected growth rate in milled rice consumption. Seed use was raised slightly to 4.1 million cwt based on new seeding rates. Brewers' use remains projected at 15.4 million cwt. Exports remain projected at 85 million cwt, identical to 1998/99. Rough rice exports remain projected at 16 million tons, 10 million below a year earlier. The drop is primarily due to much smaller imports by Brazil. Milled exports remain projected at 69 million cwt, up 17 percent. The increase is based on expectations of lower U.S. prices and larger food aid shipments. Ending stocks are projected at 46.8 million cwt, down 20 percent from last month but nearly 25 million above 1998/99 and the largest since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 23.6 percent, down from 29.3 percent last month and a year earlier's 16 percent. Even with the reduction, the stocks-to-use ratio would be the largest since 1986/87. U.S. 1999/2000 LONG GRAIN ENDING STOCKS PROJECTED AT 33 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. long grain crop is projected at a record 150.7 million cwt, down 1.8 million from last month's projection but 6 percent above a year earlier. Beginning stocks for 1999/2000 were lowered 39 percent to 13.9 million, 4 percent smaller than a year earlier. Imports were raised slightly to a record 9.6 million cwt. Total long grain supplies are projected at a record 174.2 million cwt, 6 percent below last month's projection but 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Total long grain use in 1999/2000 is projected at 141 million cwt, down fractionally from last month and 7 percent below a year earlier. Domestic use, including residual, is projected to drop 10 percent from a year earlier to 73 million cwt. Exports remain projected at 68 million cwt, nearly 4 percent below a year earlier. This results in ending stocks of 33.2 million cwt, down 23 percent from last month's projection but nearly 140 percent above a year earlier and the largest since 1985/86. The stocks- to-use ratio is forecast at 23.5 percent, down from 30.4 percent last month but well above a year earlier's 9.2 percent. The combined medium/short grain crop is projected at 61.4 million cwt, down fractionally from last month's projection but 32 percent larger than in 1998. Medium/short grain production would be the largest since 1994/95. The year-to-year expansion is due to much larger plantings in California and the South. Medium/short grain beginning stocks are projected at just 6.9 million cwt, down 7 percent from last month and 5 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest beginning stocks since supply and use were first reported by grain type in 1982/83. Total supplies are projected at 69.5 million cwt, down slightly from last month but 16 percent larger than a year earlier. Total use of medium/short grain rice is projected at 57 million cwt, up fractionally from last month and 7 percent larger than in 1998/99. Domestic use is projected to increase 3 percent to 40 million, and exports are projected to rise 17 percent to 17 million cwt. With supplies rising much faster than total use, ending stocks are projected to nearly double to 12.5 million cwt, the largest since 1994/95. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise nearly 9 percentage points to 21.9 percent. Although up substantially from a year earlier, projected stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are similar to levels reported from 1994/95 through 1997/98. As of September 7, the 1999 U.S. rice harvest was 81 percent complete in Louisiana and 91 percent complete in Texas, both well ahead of their 5-year averages. Harvest was about a fifth complete in the Delta and had just started in California. Through September 7, conditions were quite favorable across all States, with 75 percent of the crop reported in good or excellent condition and just 4 percent reported in poor or very poor condition. However, the Delta has been very hot this summer and this could reduce milling yields. Milling yields on early harvested rice in Arkansas were reported below average. U.S. 1999/2000 PROJECTED SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE INCREASED The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.75 to $6.25 per cwt, up 25 cents up on the high and low end from last month's projection but well below 1998/99's revised $8.83. The month-to-month revision is due to only modest reductions in cash prices since February and a downward revision in total supplies and ending stocks. The 1999/2000 SAFP price is the lowest since 1992/93. Through early September reported average monthly cash prices have shown only modest weakness despite expectations of record U.S. supplies in 1999/2000. Last month, USDA estimated August's midmonth price at $8.06 and lowered July's average to $8.15 per cwt from a preliminary $8.16. Although reported monthly cash prices are the lowest in 4 years, prices have dropped only a little since late spring. Some strength has been due to relatively high medium/short grain prices compared with falling prices for southern long grain. Long grain cash prices are currently quoted below $6.00 per cwt in Texas, down about 50 cents from last month and about $3 below January. Prices are reported lower in Louisiana. There has been little new crop cash sales in the Delta. California medium grain farm prices were reported at nearly $11 per cwt in early May. However, the bulk of the 1998 crop was marketed prior to May and there has been very little sold since then. THAI AND VIETNAMESE TRADING PRICES WEAKEN ON LACK OF NEW SALES Thai export prices for most grades of rice have weakened over the past 4 or 5 weeks in the face of few new major sales. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $244 per ton for the week ending September 7, virtually unchanged from a week earlier but down nearly $14 from early August. Short-term movements in quoted Thai prices are currently very responsive to immediate sales and loadings. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have recently dropped as well, after remaining steady in July and August. Recent policy changes by Indonesia limiting private imports of rice with more than 5 percent brokens reduced the international trade outlook. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens have been reported at $225 per ton in early September, down $5 from a week earlier. Vietnam just harvested a bumper summer-autumn crop. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) were quoted at $309 per ton for the week ending September 6, down from $320 in mid- August and $331 in July. U.S. milled prices have declined since the start of the 1998/99 market year. Recent declines stem from little milled export business beyond food aid purchases and expectations of record supplies in 1999/2000. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice has generally contracted since April as U.S. prices have dropped more than Thai prices have. As of September 7 the difference was $65 per ton, down from $68 in August and $73 in June and July. However, the difference will have to narrow substantially more for the U.S. to be competitive with Thailand in the higher income markets in the Middle East and Africa. In sharp contrast to declining prices for southern long grain, prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have been very strong since the start of the 1998/99 market year. Prices are currently quoted at $518 per ton bagged, up from $506 in June and $474 in May. Prices are the highest since the spring of 1994 when Japan began making its emergency import purchases. However, virtually no 1998 California medium grain remains for export markets and the 1999 harvest has barely begun. Three recent food aid announcements have added support to U.S. milled exports. On September 9, USDA gave approval for the Philippines to issue tenders for about 52,000 tons under Title I of PL 480. In early September Cote d'Ivoire received purchase authorization for about 16,000 tons and Jamaica bought more than 10,000 tons, both under Title I. All purchases are for long grain. GLOBAL CROP PROJECTIONS RAISED FOR 1999/2000 AND 1998/99 For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 392 million tons (milled basis), up 1 million from a month earlier and more than 1 percent larger than the 1998/99 crop. Total consumption is projected at a record 393.6 million tons, unchanged from last month but more than 1 percent higher than a year earlier. Ending stocks are forecast at 50.5 million tons, up 2.4 million tons from last month's projection, but 3 percent below a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 12.8 percent, up from 12.2 percent a month earlier but below 13.4 percent in 1998/99. Although the stocks-to-use ratio in 1999/2000 would be the lowest since 1974/75, little upward price pressure is expected as bumper crops are projected in major importing countries, and all major exporters are expected to have record or near-record crops. Major exporters accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month production increase. Thailand's crop is projected at a near- record 15.4 million tons, up 700,000 from last month, a result of larger plantings. Pakistan's crop was raised 200,000 tons to a record 4.8 million on larger plantings as well. In addition, Spain's crop was raised 25,000 tons to a record 570,000 due to a much higher yield. Several importers' crops were raised as well. The Philippines' crop was raised 120,000 tons to a record 7.4 million based on larger area. Higher yields are responsible for a 50,000-ton increase in Cambodia's crop to 2.25 million tons. Finally, Colombia's crop was raised 80,000 tons to 950,000 due to a much higher yield. In contrast, Brazil's 1999/2000 projected crop (harvested in 2000) was lowered 225,000 tons to 7.2 million due to smaller area. For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at 386.9 million tons, up 2.8 million from last month's projection and up slightly from a year earlier. Similar to 1999/2000, major exporters account for the bulk of the monthly increase. China's crop was raised 2 million tons to 135 million due to a larger yield. Thailand's production raised 748,000 tons to 15 million, a result of much higher plantings. Pakistan's crop was raised 24,000 tons to 4.7 million on larger area. And Spain's crop was raised slightly to 563,000 tons on higher yields. In contrast, Australia's crop was reduced 14,000 tons to 994,000 due to slightly smaller plantings. Brazil was the only importer whose crop was revised. Brazil's production was raised 70,000 tons to 7.7 million--the largest in over a decade--due to higher yields. 1999 EXPORT PROJECTIONS RAISED FOR INDIA AND THAILAND Total rice trade for calender year 2000 is projected at nearly 23 million tons, unchanged from last month and nearly the same as 1999's revised level. Trade remains 4.4 million tons below the 1998 record of more than 27.4 million tons. There were no monthly revisions. Global rice trade in 1999 is revised up 300,000 tons to nearly 23 million. On the export side, India's exports are projected up 250,000 tons to 2.75 million, a result of larger shipments to Bangladesh. Thailand's exports were raised 200,000 tons to 5.7 million based on the larger crop and the pace of shipments through August. In contrast, Vietnam's exports were lowered 150,000 tons to 3.7 million due to Indonesia's new policy restricting private importers to rice with 5 percent or less brokens. Most Vietnamese rice exports contain more than 5 percent brokens. On the import side, Bangladesh's 1999 forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 1.8 million based on deliveries to date. In contrast, Indonesia's forecast was lowered 500,000 tons to 3.2 million due to its new import policy. ---------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on September 14, 1999 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on October 12, 1999. The report, along with the 1998 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports and yearbooks, may be accessed on the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. NOTE: To order printed copies of the 1998 Rice Yearbook, call 1- 800-999-6779. The summary of the 1999 Rice Yearbook will be released on November 18, 1999. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1996/97 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.600 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.555 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,967 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.0 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 212.1 Imports 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.2 10.5 10.8 Total supply 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.6 219.4 226.4 244.8 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 84.0 84.0 87.0 Seed 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.1 Brewer's use 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 16.0 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ 11.8 8.4 7.5 0.7 -0.9 15.6 6.5 Domestic use 101.4 100.7 104.6 101.0 103.2 119.5 113.0 Exports 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 88.3 85.0 85.0 Rough 3.5 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 26.0 16.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 80.4 72.3 65.7 62.2 59.0 69.0 Total use 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.4 191.5 204.5 198.0 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.0 46.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 14.6 10.7 23.6 $/cwt 5.75 Average farm to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.83 6.25 Percent Average milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.5 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1997/98 to present ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | ------------------- ------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 8.06 1/ N/A 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 9.35 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 8.98 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 9.06 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 9.05 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 8.97 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 8.86 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 8.54 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 8.16 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 8.20 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.15 9,430 9.58 9,290 | Average 2/ | 8.06 8.83 11,206 9.70 11,093 | Total 3/ |5.75-6.25 4/ 8.83 4/ 134,468 133,116 | ============================================================================== N/A=Not available. 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 1999/00 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/00 is August to current month only. 4/ Preliminary. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt | August | 5.37 5.02 4.92 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.33 4.98 4.87 2/ 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3 | 5.35 5.00 4.90 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 | 1998/99 Country ----------|---------- 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 8/26/99 | 8/26/98 Prel. Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 82 | 61 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 13 | 8 20 17 16 19 Turkey 0 | 20 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 56 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 1 | 6 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 138 | 53 203 183 315 344 Iran 0 | 0 0 0 0 72 Iraq 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 0 | 0 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 99 | 0 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 33 | 48 106 96 168 130 | AFRICA 55 | 48 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 17 | 12 61 64 33 48 Senegal 0 | 0 0 0 0 5 South Africa 34 | 28 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 148 | 662 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 3 | 407 555 28 1 1 Canada 33 | 57 122 107 109 107 Colombia 0 | 11 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 0 | 0 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 0 | 0 61 93 19 3 Ecuador 0 | 0 0 148 0 0 Guatemala 2 | 2 29 25 32 31 Haiti 21 | 10 164 100 86 121 Honduras 9 | 12 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 0 | 0 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 5 | 10 11 16 17 22 Mexico 52 | 48 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 14 | 4 61 35 68 29 Panama 0 | 0 8 88 0 0 Peru 0 | 68 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 6 | 12 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 11 23 21 21 27 | TOTAL 497 | 920 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,780 3/| 2,780 3/ N/A 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 4/ 412 | 406 459 314 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of"are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1995/96 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Viet.6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A.1 brokens year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special 7/ ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 Aug 1997 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep 1997 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct 1997 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov 1997 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 241 Dec 1997 419 397 463 274 269 255 228 193 270 Jan 1998 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 262 Feb 1998 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar 1998 410 392 445 306 284 278 235 193 280 Apr 1998 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May 1998 408 386 441 328 299 299 248 197 NQ Jun 1998 408 395 441 338 315 311 256 209 304 Jul 1998 408 402 441 337 315 304 255 211 305 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 257 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 9/ 369 470 418 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 391 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 9/ 309 518 386 244 253 227 207 193 225 1999/2000 9/ 315 518 388 248 251 232 211 198 227 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent broken. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 13.9 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 150.7 Imports 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.0 9.3 9.6 Total supply 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.5 146.6 165.4 174.2 Domestic use 4/ 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.9 59.9 81.0 73.0 Exports 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 72.2 70.5 68.0 Total use 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.4 132.1 151.5 141.0 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 13.9 33.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.3 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.2 23.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.9 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 61.4 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.8 59.9 69.5 Domestic use 4/ 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.1 43.3 38.5 40.0 Exports 19.6 18.6 18.1 22.0 16.1 14.5 17.0 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.0 57.0 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.9 12.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 13.2 21.9 Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.1 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 4/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE