RICE OUTLOOK October 12, 1999 October 1999, RCS-1099 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. RICE OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual RICE YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 will be released on November 18, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-RCS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1999/2000 U.S. rice crop is projected at a record 212.3 million cwt, up fractionally from last month's projection, a result of slightly higher area. o U.S. 1999/2000 rice exports are projected at 82 million cwt, down 3 million from last month and slightly below a year earlier's revised level. o U.S. 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected at 50 million cwt, up 7 percent from last month and the largest since 1986/87. o Global rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 393.5 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month, with India, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Liberia accounting for most of the increase. The 1998/99 crop was increased slightly to 387.5 million tons. o Global rice trade for 2000 was raised 210,000 tons from last month to almost 23.2 million. Vietnam's export projection was raised for both 1999 and 2000. o Global 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected at 51 million tons, up 500,000 from last month's projection but still more than 1 million tons below a year earlier. U.S. 1999/2000 RICE CROP PROJECTED AT 212.3 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. rice crop is forecast at a record 212.3 million cwt, up fractional from last month's projection and 13 percent larger than a year earlier. Long grain accounts for all of the month-to-month increase, as combined medium/short grain production was lowered. The revision is due to a slight increase in harvested area. Average yield was lowered. Total harvested area is projected at 3.57 million acres, up 16,000 from last month and second only to the 1981 record of 3.8 million. Average yield is projected to be 5,945 pounds per acre, down 22 pounds from last month but still 5 percent higher than a year earlier. This is the third highest yield on record. Long grain production is projected at a record 152.4 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month and almost 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium grain production is lowered 3 percent to 56.1 million cwt, still 26 percent above a year earlier. Short grain production was revised down fractionally, but is still almost double a year earlier and the highest since 1989. All rice producing States except Texas are expected to produce larger crops this year, with record crops projected for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri. Production was revised up this month in all States except California and Texas. Mississippi accounts for the largest month-to-month increase. Its crop was raised 1.1 million cwt to 18.4 million cwt--fractionally below the 1994 record. The revision was the result of greater plantings, as average yield was actually lowered. Missouri's crop was raised more than 1 million cwt to a record 9 million, a result of a 21,000- acre increase in harvested area to a record 176,000. Rice plantings in Missouri have more than doubled in a decade. Expectations of a 5,000-pound-per-acre yield, a record, are behind a 937,000-cwt increase in Louisiana's crop projection to a record of nearly 31.3 million cwt. Harvested area remains estimated at 625,000 acres, the highest since 1975. Production in Arkansas, the largest rice producing State, was raised 820,000 cwt to a record 96.8 million cwt, a result of a 50 pound increase in yield to 5,900, the second highest on record. Harvested area remains projected at a record 1.64 million acres. In contrast, production in California--which experienced abnormally cool weather during pollination--was lowered 2.6 million cwt to 41.1 million. Area was lowered 20,000 acres to 548,000 and yield was reduced 200 pounds to 7,500. Although the 1999 yield is almost 10 percent above last year's abnormally low yield, it remains substantially below the 8,500 reported in 1992 and 1995. However, production in California is still the second highest on record and 26 percent above a year earlier's weather- reduced crop. Production in Texas was lowered 1.1 million cwt to 15.8 million cwt, about the same as a year earlier. Production remains well below the State's 1981 record of more than 27.2 million cwt, a result of declining acreage. No adjustments were made this month to 1999/2000 beginning stocks or imports. Total U.S. supply is projected at a record 245 million cwt, up marginally from last month's projection--a result of the larger crop, and more than 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Total use in 1999/2000 is projected at 195 million cwt, down 3 million from last month's forecast and nearly 5 percent below a year earlier. The month-to-month revision is due to a 3 million cwt reduction in exports to 82 million, slightly below 1998/99. The revision is based on the pace of shipments to date, larger projected crops in major competing countries, and stiffer price competition in international markets. Through September 30, combined outstanding sales and exports totaled 841,500 tons, more than 413,000 less than a year earlier. All of the reduction is for milled rice exports, projected at 66 million cwt, still up almost 8 million from 1998/99. Rough rice exports remain projected at 16 million cwt, nearly 10 million below a year earlier. The virtual absence of Brazil from the U.S. export picture is the main reason for weaker rough rice exports this year. Total domestic use (excluding residual or unreported loss) remains projected at a record 106.5 million cwt, almost 3 percent above a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 50 million cwt, up 7 percent from last month and 28 million above 1998/99. These are the largest ending stocks since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 25.6 percent, up from 23.6 percent last month and well above a year earlier's 10.7 percent. The stocks-to-use ratio is the largest since 1986/87. U.S. 1999/2000 LONG GRAIN ENDING STOCKS FORECAST AT 36.9 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. long grain crop is projected at a record 152.4 million cwt, up 1.7 million from last month's projection and nearly 8 percent above a year earlier. Total long grain supplies are projected at a record 175.9 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month and 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Total long grain use in 1999/2000 is projected at 139 million cwt, down 2 million from last month and 8 percent below a year earlier. A 2-million-cwt reduction in exports to 66 million cwt accounts for this month's reduction in total use. Exports are projected to drop 3.1 million cwt from a year earlier's 69.1 million, as much weaker rough rice exports more than offset greater expected milled rice exports. Domestic use, including residual, remains projected at 73 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier. This leaves long grain ending stocks at 36.9 million cwt, up 11 percent from last month and nearly triple 1998/99 stocks. Ending stocks are the largest since 1985/86. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 26.5 percent, up slightly from last month and almost three times a year earlier's 9.2 percent. The combined medium/short grain crop is projected at 59.9 million cwt, down more than 2 percent from last month's projection, but 29 percent larger than in 1998. Medium/short grain production would be the largest since 1994/95. The year-to-year expansion is due to much larger plantings in California and the South. Medium/short grain beginning stocks remain projected at just 6.9 million cwt, the smallest since supply and use were first reported by grain type in 1982/83. Total supplies are projected at 68 million cwt, down 1.5 million from last month but 13 percent larger than a year earlier. Total use of medium/short grain rice is projected at 56 million cwt, down 1 million from last month--a result of a smaller export forecast--but 4 percent larger than in 1998/99. Domestic use remains projected at 40 million cwt, up 2 percent from a year earlier. Exports are projected to rise 10 percent to 16 million cwt. With supplies rising faster than total use, ending stocks are projected to rise 73 percent 11.9 million cwt. The stocks- to-use ratio is projected to rise nearly 9 percentage points to 21.3 percent. Although up substantially from a year earlier, projected stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are similar to levels reported from 1994/95 through 1997/98. As of October 3, the 1999 U.S. rice harvest was virtually complete in Louisiana and Texas, with both States slightly ahead of their 5-year averages. In the Delta, harvest was 87 percent complete in Arkansas and 84 percent in Mississippi, with both States slightly ahead of their 5-year averages. In contrast, harvest in California was just 30 percent complete, 9 percentage points behind its 5-year average and barely ahead of the severely delayed crop a year earlier. Overall, 82 percent of the 1999 crop was harvested, ahead of both a year earlier and the 5-year average. U.S. MONTHLY CASH PRICES DECLINE Reported average monthly cash prices declined in August and September, the result of a record harvest in full swing and stiffer price competition in international markets. Last month, USDA estimated September's midmonth price at $7.59 and lowered August's to $7.62 from a preliminary $8.06. Although a record crop has been projected since May, reported monthly cash prices have only recently started to drop more than fractionally. These are the lowest reported monthly cash prices since July 1995. Some of the previous strength was due to relatively high medium/short grain prices compared with falling prices for southern long grain. Long grain cash prices are currently quoted around $5.50 per cwt in Texas and slightly lower in the Delta and Louisiana. Prices are little changed from last month but are down 50 cents to $1 from August. California medium grain prices for 1999 crop were reported at under $8 per cwt in early October, down from almost $11 in May. There were few reported marketings of the 1999 California crop prior to late September when harvest began in earnest. Prices for southern medium grain--grown mostly in the Delta--are reported about the same or slightly higher than for long grain. The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) remains projected at $5.75 to $6.25 per cwt, unchanged from last month's projection but well below $8.83 in 1998/99. The 1999/2000 SAFP price is the lowest since 1992/93. INTERNATIONAL PRICES DROP ON LACK OF NEW SALES, LARGE SUPPLIES Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled rice have dropped substantially since mid-September in the face of few new major sales, a weakening of the Thai baht, and expectations of large harvests this year in all major exporting countries. In addition, last month Indonesia changed its import policy, virtually halting private imports. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $218 per ton for the week ending October 4, unchanged from a week earlier but down nearly $18-$20 from mid-September and $40 from early August. Thailand's main harvest begins in November. In contrast to prices for regular milled rice, quotes for parboiled and fragrant rices have not dropped much since mid-September. In fact, prices actually rose in August and September on strong demand. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have dropped as well, after remaining steady in July and August. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $200 per ton in early October, down $5 from a week earlier and $30 below a month earlier. Vietnam is a major supplier of rice to Indonesia. Harvest of Vietnam's 10-month crop begins this fall. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) were quoted at $309 per ton for the week ending October 4, unchanged since late August. Prices had been slowly declining since early 1999 on expectations of a record 1999 crop and lower international prices. Recent food aid sales have keep U.S. prices from falling further. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice has recently widened as U.S. prices have stabilized and Thai prices dropped substantially. In early October the difference was $91 per ton, up from $65 a month earlier. The difference will have to narrow substantially for the U.S. to be competitive with Thailand in the higher income markets in the Middle East and South Africa. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento)--which have been very strong since the start of the 1998/99 market year--have only recently begun to drop. Prices have been quoted at $474 per ton bagged since late September, down from $518 in August and most of September. California entered the 1999/2000 market year with extremely low stocks and virtually no rice available for export. The start of a bumper 1999 harvest is responsible for the recent drop in prices. Several recent Title I PL 480 sales have added support to U.S. milled export prices. On September 17, the Philippines purchased about 59,000 tons of No. 2, 4 percent long grain rice. Other recent buyers have been the Ivory Coast, Jamaica, and Indonesia. All purchases are for long grain. Although the bulk of food aid shipments are milled or brown rice, Jamaica purchased 8,000 tons of rough rice. GLOBAL CROP PROJECTIONS RAISED FOR 1999/2000 AND 1998/99 For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 393.5 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and up almost 2 percent from a year earlier's revised crop. Total consumption is projected at a record 394.6 million tons, up 1 million from last month and nearly 2 percent higher than a year earlier. With consumption exceeding production, ending stocks are forecast to drop more than 1 million tons to 51 million, still up slightly from last month's projection. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 12.9 percent, fractionally above last month but below a year earlier's 13.4 percent. Although the stocks-to-use ratio in 1999/2000 would be the lowest since 1974/75, little upward price pressure is expected as bumper crops are projected in major importing countries, and all major exporters are expected to have record or near-record crops. Similar to last month, major exporters account for the bulk of the month-to-month production increase. India's crop is projected at a record 85.5 million tons, up 1 million from last month, a result of larger plantings. Vietnam's crop was raised 400,000 tons to a near-record 19.8 million on larger plantings and a slightly higher yield. Taiwan's crop was raised 100,000 tons to 1.4 million due to larger plantings. In addition, Liberia's crop was revised up 100,000 tons to 160,000 based on much higher area. Note revisions in prior years' production as well. Liberian rice production appears to be recovering from nearly a decade of civil war. Mali's crop was raised 65,000 tons to 500,000 due to a much higher yield, as area was actually reduced. Crops in both Madagascar and Mauritania were raised this month as well. In contrast, Brazil's 1999/2000 crop projection was lowered 275,000 tons to 6.9 million due to smaller plantings, a response to weaker prices. Finally, Senegal's crop was lowered 12,000 tons to 98,000 based on smaller yield and area. For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at 387.5 million tons, up more than 600,000 from last month's projection and up 1.4 million from a year earlier. Vietnam accounted for the bulk of the month-to-month increase. Vietnam's crop was raised 636,000 tons to a record 19.97 million based on larger plantings and a slightly higher yield. Brazil's crop, harvested last spring, was raised 66,000 tons to 7.8 million based on government data reporting larger plantings. Liberia's crop was raised 65,000 tons to 125,000 due to much larger plantings. Higher yields pulled Mali's crop up 15,000 tons to 450,000. In contrast, Senegal's crop was lowered 30,000 tons to 81,000 based on a much smaller yield. Area was actually increased. VIETNAM'S EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED FOR 1999 AND 2000 Total rice trade for calender year 2000 is projected at 23.2 million tons, up 210,000 from last month and slightly below 1999's revised level. Trade remains more than 4.2 million tons below the 1998 record of 27.4 million tons. Vietnam accounts for most of the increase in exports. Vietnam's exports were raised 150,000 tons to 4 million, tied with the revised record of a year earlier. The increase is due to a bigger crop and a larger 1999 exports. Exports from the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) were raised from 0 to 60,000 tons based on expectations of continued transshipments and revisions in 1999 trade. On the import side, the U.A.E. figures were raised 60,000 tons based on expected transshipments. In addition, import projections for 2000 were raised for Zaire, Mozambique, Djibouti, Tanzania, and Angola. These revisions were based on revisions to 1999 imports and, for some, revised production data. Liberia's imports were lowered 20,000 to zero due to the larger crop. Global rice trade in 1999 is revised up 330,000 tons to more than 23.3 million, the second largest on record. On the export side, Vietnam's exports were raised 300,000 tons to a record 4 million, a result of a larger crop and the pace of shipments through September. Also, the U.A.E.'s exports were raised to 60,000 tons from 0 based on estimates of transshipments. The U.A.E.'s imports were raised 60,000 tons to account for transshipments. In addition, import projections were raised for Zaire, Liberia, Angola, Tanzania, Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mozambique, and Djibouti. --------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on October 13, 1999 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on December 13, 1999. On November 12, the 6 monthly tables will be released. The summary of the 1999 Rice Yearbook will be released on November 18. Printed copies will be available a few weeks later. The report, along with the 1998 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports and yearbooks, may be accessed on the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. NOTE: To order printed copies of the 1998 Rice Yearbook, call 1- 800-999-6779. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chamber (202 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1997/98 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.600 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.571 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,945 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.0 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 212.3 Imports 6.9 7.5 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 Total supply 202.5 231.1 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 245.0 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 84.0 84.0 87.0 Seed 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.1 Brewer's use 14.2 14.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ 11.9 8.2 8.5 2.0 1.1 17.0 6.5 Domestic use 101.4 100.5 105.6 102.7 105.2 120.9 113.0 Exports 75.3 99.3 82.2 77.2 86.3 83.6 82.0 Rough 3.5 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 16.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 80.8 71.5 64.4 60.2 57.9 66.0 Total use 176.7 199.8 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.5 195.0 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.0 50.0 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.7 25.6 $/cwt 5.75 Average farm to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.83 6.25 Percent Average milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.5 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1997/98 to present ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | ------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 7.59 1/ 9,215 1/ 9.35 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 8.98 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 9.06 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 9.05 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 8.97 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 8.86 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 8.54 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 8.16 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 8.20 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.15 9,430 9.58 9,290 | Average 2/ | 7.61 9,215 8.83 11,206 9.70 11,093 Total 3/ | 5.75-6.25 4/ 134,468 133,116 ============================================================================== N/A=Not available. 1/ Midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 1999/00 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/00 is August to current month only. 4/ Preliminary. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt August | 5.37 5.02 4.92 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 5.12 4.75 4.65 2/ 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3 | 5.25 4.89 4.79 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly prices. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/2000| 1998/99 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 9/30/99 | 9/30/98 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 142 | 93 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 11 | 11 20 17 16 19 Turkey 17 | 42 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 56 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 25 | 27 324 250 212 192 OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 265 | 85 203 183 315 344 Iran 0 | 0 0 0 0 72 Iraq 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 11 | 0 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 113 | 26 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 74 | 50 106 96 168 130 AFRICA 97 | 70 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 21 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 24 | 21 61 64 33 48 South Africa 44 | 41 81 67 114 147 WESTERN HEMISPHERE 225 | 883 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 3 | 505 555 28 1 1 Canada 43 | 66 122 107 109 107 Colombia 0 | 11 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 0 | 0 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 0 | 0 61 93 19 3 Ecuador 0 | 0 0 148 0 0 Guatemala 0 | 18 29 25 32 31 Haiti 21 | 19 164 100 86 121 Honduras 9 | 13 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 12 | 0 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 5 | 10 11 16 17 22 Mexico 106 | 84 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 14 | 12 61 35 68 29 Panama 0 | 0 8 88 0 0 Peru 0 | 96 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 7 | 26 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 11 23 21 21 27 TOTAL 838 | 1,211 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,680 3/| 2,730 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 4/ | 229 406 459 313 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/The U.S. Census export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Difference between Census and Export Sales. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Vietnam ------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ----------- A 1 7/ brokens year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 418 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 391 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 225 Oct 1999 9/ 309 474 386 218 252 199 183 168 200 1999/00 9/ 313 500 388 235 252 218 199 186 218 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent broken. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. N/A=Not available. Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 13.9 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 152.4 Imports 5.9 6.5 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 Total supply 130.6 155.0 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.6 175.9 Domestic use 4/ 59.9 59.6 67.8 62.2 60.7 81.6 73.0 Exports 55.6 81.0 64.8 56.6 71.4 69.1 66.0 Total use 115.5 140.6 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.7 139.0 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 13.9 36.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.2 26.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.9 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 59.9 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 68.0 Domestic use 4/ 41.6 40.9 37.9 40.5 44.5 39.3 40.0 Exports 19.6 18.3 17.4 20.5 14.9 14.5 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.8 56.0 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.9 11.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.8 21.3 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending inventories of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE