RICE OUTLOOK December 13, 1999 December 1999, RCS-1299 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. RICE OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual RICE YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on November 18, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-RCS-1999, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: O There were no revisions to the U.S. supply, demand, and price projections this month. O The 1999/2000 U.S. rice crop remains projected at a record 211.7 million cwt, up 13 percent from a year earlier. O U.S. 1999/2000 rice exports remain projected at 82 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year earlier as weaker rough rice exports more than offset larger milled rice exports. O Total U.S. supplies remain projected at a record 244.4 million cwt, 8 percent above a year earlier. Long grain supplies are a record 175.5 million cwt. O U.S. 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected at 49.4 million cwt, up from 22 million a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. O Global rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 395.9 million tons, down almost 1 million from last month, with India and Australia accounting for most of the reduction. O Global rice trade for 2000 is nearly unchanged from last month at 23.2 million tons, down 5 percent from a year earlier. Weaker exports by Australia were nearly offset by larger exports by China. O Global 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected at 58.7 million tons, down 2 percent from last month?s projection but the highest since 1990/91. India accounts for most of the reduction. U.S. 1999/2000 RICE CROP PROJECTED AT RECORD 211.7 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. rice crop remains projected at a record 211.7 million cwt, up 13 percent from 1998. The larger crop stems from an 8-percent increase in plantings to 3.6 million acres-the second largest on record-and a 5-percent increase in average yield to 5,929 pounds per acre. Despite falling prices, rice remained an attractive planting option compared with alternative crops, especially in the Delta, where the majority of the acreage expansion occurred. This was the third consecutive year of expanding rice acreage for the Nation and the South. There were no revisions to the domestic supply and demand forecasts this month. Plantings expanded in every State except Texas, with record plantings reported for Arkansas and Missouri. The contraction in Texas plantings continues a long-term decline resulting from high production costs and competition for land from major urban centers. Nationally, plantings in 1999 were up from a year earlier for all three grain types, with medium grain accounting for more than half the total 255,000-acre increase. USDA will release final acreage and yield estimates by State and grain type for 1999 in January 2000. Yields are projected higher this year in all states except Missouri and Mississippi, where they are down slightly. Both Texas and Louisiana are projected to produce record yields. While California's yield is projected up 2 percent from a year earlier's severely reduced level, it is still one of the lowest since 1983, largely a result of cool temperatures during pollination. Production is up for all three grain types. Long grain production is projected at a record 152 million cwt, up 7 percent from 1998. Medium grain production is projected at 55.9 million cwt, up 26 percent but still below the 1997 crop. The short grain crop is projected at 3.8 million cwt, nearly double a year earlier. Production is up in every State as well, with record crops projected for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri. Mississippi's crop is projected to be a near-record. Arkansas and California account for two-thirds of the production expansion. U.S. rice supplies remain projected at a record 244.4 million cwt, up 8 percent from 1998/99 and nearly 6 percent above the previous record of 231.1 million cwt in 1994/95. A record crop and slightly greater imports are projected to more than offset a smaller carryin. Beginning stocks on August 1 were reported at 22 million cwt, down 21 percent from a year earlier. California accounted for the bulk of the year-to-year contraction, primarily due to a weak 1998 harvest. U.S. rice imports in 1999/2000 remain projected at a record 10.75 million cwt, up 250,000 cwt from a year earlier and continuing a long term expansion. About 90 percent of U.S. imports are long grain rice. Although still a small portion of total U.S. rice supplies (less than 5 percent in 1998/99), imports have been steadily increasing for almost two decades. Almost 75 percent of U.S. rice imports are from Thailand--mostly jasmine rice. Most of the remainder is basmati rice from Pakistan and India. U.S. EXPORTS PROJECTED TO DROP 2 PERCENT IN 1999/2000 Total U.S. rice use, including exports, domestic consumption, and residual (unreported losses in processing and marketing), is forecast at 195 million cwt in 1999/2000, down almost 5 percent from the year-earlier record. The decline is the result of weaker exports and smaller total domestic disappearance. Total domestic disappearance (domestic use plus residual) is projected at 113 million cwt, down more than 6 percent from the year- earlier record. In contrast, domestic use (food, beer, and seed) is projected to rise nearly 3 percent to a record 106.5 million cwt. Food use accounts for all of the expansion. Exports remain projected at 82 million cwt, down about 2 percent from last year. The decline is due to a 38-percent drop in rough rice exports to 16 million cwt, largely due to a big drop in shipments to Brazil. The decline in rough rice exports is partially offset by a 14-percent increase in milled exports to 66 million cwt, the first increase since 1994/95. Long grain accounts for all of the projected decrease in total exports. Long grain exports are projected to decline nearly 5 percent to 66 million cwt. In contrast, combined medium/short grain exports are projected to expand 10 percent to 16 million cwt. Through December 2, combined exports and outstanding sales totaled 1.43 million tons, almost 14 percent below a year earlier. While outstanding sales were 9 percent ahead of a year earlier, total exports were almost 25 percent behind. This is due entirely to weaker rough rice exports. Total milled rice exports were nearly 28 percent ahead of a year earlier. ENDING STOCKS PROJECTED TO MORE THAN DOUBLE TO 49.4 MILLION CWT U.S. ending stocks are projected at 49.4 million cwt in 1999/2000, up nearly 125 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. The huge stocks stem from record supplies and weaker total use. Stocks as a share of total use are forecast at 25.3 percent, up substantially from 10.7 percent a year earlier, and the highest since 1986/87. Assuming no major weather problem globally, stocks of this size will likely prevent any price increase in the near future. However, there are some differences in stocks by grain type. For long grain rice, 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected to rise 162 percent from a year earlier to 36.5 million cwt, due to a record crop and weaker use. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected to nearly triple to 26.2 percent. The long grain ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratio are the largest since 1985/86. For combined medium/short grain, ending stocks are projected to rise 71 percent to 11.8 million cwt, primarily because an almost 29-percent increase in production will likely outweigh expanded exports. Larger stocks and greater total use are expected to yield a stocks-to-use ratio of 21 percent, up from 12.8 percent a year earlier. While up substantially from last year, both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are actually slightly below the decade-average. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE PROJECTED AT $5.50 to $6.00 PER CWT Reported average monthly cash prices declined from August through October, the result of a record harvest in progress and stiff price competition in international markets. Last month, USDA estimated November's midmonth price at $6.45 per cwt and lowered October's to $6.23 from a preliminary $7.29. These are the lowest reported monthly cash prices since October 1993. Long grain cash prices are currently quoted slightly more than $5.00 per cwt in Texas and Louisiana, and a little higher in the Delta. Prices are down slightly from last month and are nearly a $1 below prices at the start of the 1999/2000 market year. Price quotes for California medium grain rice were $7.33 per cwt in early December, down from almost $11 in May. Prices for southern medium grain--grown mostly in the Delta--are reported around $5.50 per cwt, well below $9 to $10 a year earlier. The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) remains projected at $5.50 to $6.00 per cwt, down about a third from $8.83 in 1998/99. The midpoint of the 1999/2000 SAFP forecast is the lowest since 1986/87. INTERNATIONAL PRICES WEAKEN ON LARGE SUPPLIES, SMALLER DEMAND Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled white rice have slipped slightly since late November as the Thai main harvest progresses and new sales have been weak. Quotes for high- quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $239 per ton for the week ending December 7, down $2 to $3 from late November but up $10 from a month earlier and $20 from early October. Last month, Thai prices rose on a stronger baht, government intervention purchases, and private sales to Indonesia. In contrast to prices for regular milled rice, quotes for parboiled and fragrant rices have not dropped much since spring 1999. In fact, prices actually rose in October and November on strong demand. Prices for Thai 5-percent parboiled are currently quoted at $262 per ton, down slightly from last month but well above prices last spring and summer. Prices for Thai jasmine rice have also recently dropped, but are well above prices during the spring and most of the summer. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have risen since October, a result of severe flooding in central Vietnam that has hindered transportation and a strong pace of shipments. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $220 per ton in early December, up $5 from a month earlier and $20 from early October. However, prices remain well below levels during the summer. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) were quoted slightly below $300 per ton for the week ending December 6, down $10 from a month earlier and down more than $30 from the start of the 1999/2000 season. Prices have been slowly declining since early 1999 on expectations of record 1999 supplies and lower international prices. Large food aid sales late in the 1998/99 market year have kept U.S. prices from falling further. However, the bulk of these food aid shipments are expected to be complete by the end of the year. Like Thai prices, U.S. parboiled prices have dropped much less than prices for regular milled rice. U.S. 5-percent brokens parboiled rice is currently quoted at $386 per ton, down about $10 from the start of the 1999/2000 season and $418 in 1998/99. Strong demand and limited supplies have limited the drop in parboiled prices. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice has recently contracted as U.S. prices have dropped slightly and Thai prices have risen. In early December, the difference was less than $60 per ton, down from $65 in November and $86 in October. However, the difference will have to narrow substantially more for the United States to be competitive with Thailand in the higher income markets in the Middle East and South Africa. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento)--which were at near- record levels throughout the 1998/99 market year--began to drop with the start of the 1999 harvest in October. Prices were quoted at $441 per ton bagged (domestic shipment) from mid- October through mid-November, down from $518 in August and most of September. Prices rose to $454 after mid-November when the 1999 California crop projection was lowered. California entered the 1999/2000 market year with extremely low stocks and virtually no rice available for export. INDIA'S 1999/2000 CROP PROJECTION LOWERED 1 MILLION TONS For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 395.9 million tons (milled basis), down about 1 million from last month but up 1 percent from a year earlier?s revised crop. Total consumption is projected at a record 394.6 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but up more than 1 percent from a year earlier. With production exceeding consumption, ending stocks are forecast to rise more than 2 percent to 58.7 million tons, the largest since 1990/91. The resulting stocks-to- use ratio is 14.9 percent, fractionally below last month but slightly above a year earlier. India accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month production decrease. India?s crop is projected at 84.5 million tons, down 1 million from last month, a result of cyclone damage in eastern India. The crop is second only to the 1998/99 record. Australia's crop was lowered 192,000 tons to 758,000 due to a 20- percent drop in plantings and a lower yield. Italy's crop was lowered 20,000 tons to 850,000 due to lower yields. Chile's crop was lowered 51,000 tons to 39,000 on a big drop in area. In contrast, the Philippines' 1999/2000 crop is projected to increase 250,000 tons to a record 7.65 million, a result of higher yields. Good weather and greater fertilizer use are behind a 100,000-ton increase in North Korea's crop to 1.6 million tons. VIETNAM'S 1999 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED TO RECORD 4.5 MILLION TONS Total rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at 23.2 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but more than 5 percent below 1999's revised level. Trade remains more than 4 million tons below the 1998 record of 27.3 million tons. A decrease in Australia's exports is nearly offset by greater exports from China. Australia's exports were lowered 200,000 tons to 500,000, a result of a substantially weaker crop. In contrast, China's 2000 export projection was raised 100,000 tons to 2.85 million based on larger 1999 exports and record supplies. There are several revisions on the import side. First, Bangladesh's 2000 imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 900,000 based on a record crop. North Korea's imports were lowered 100,000 tons, also due to a larger crop. Several upward revisions were made to Middle Eastern countries based on larger 1999 imports. Iran's import projection was raised 100,000 tons to 1 million, the largest since 1996. Imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were raised 75,000 tons to 225,000. Yemen's imports were raised 25,000 tons to 175,000, tied with a year earlier's record. In addition, Ghana's imports were raised 25,000 tons to 200,000 based on larger 1999 imports. Global rice trade in 1999 is revised up 175,000 tons to nearly 24.5 million, the second largest on record. On the export side, Vietnam?s exports were raised 300,000 tons to a record 4.5 million based on the pace of shipments through October. China's exports were raised 300,000 tons to 2.8 million based on the pace of shipments as well. In contrast, India's exports were lowered 350,000 tons to 2.4 million based on the pace of shipments and a smaller 1999/2000 crop. Pakistan's exports were lowered 150,00 tons to 1.85 million based on the pace of shipments. Several revisions on the import side were made based on the pace of arrivals. Iran's imports were raised 200,000 tons to 850,000 based on arrivals to date. Similarly, the UAE's imports were raised 75,000 tons to 225,000, Ghana's 25,000 tons to 200,000, and Yemen's 25,000 to 175,000. These three revisions were based on arrivals to date. Chile's imports were raised 10,000 tons to 80,000 due to a smaller crop. Nearly offsetting these upward revisions is a 400,000 ton-reduction in Bangladesh's imports to 1.4 million based on the pace of arrivals and weaker exports from India. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on December 14, 1999 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on January 13, 2000. The text of the 1999 Rice Yearbook is available on the Internet. Printed copies will be available in a few weeks. The 1999 Rice Yearbook text and other commodity reports and yearbooks, may be accessed on the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. NOTE: To order printed copies of the 1999 Rice Yearbook, call 1- 800-999-6779. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1997/98 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present, and imports. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.600 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.571 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,929 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.0 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 211.7 Imports 6.9 7.5 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 Total supply 202.5 231.1 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 244.4 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 84.0 84.0 87.0 Seed 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.1 Brewers' use 14.2 14.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ 11.9 8.2 8.5 2.0 1.1 17.0 6.5 Domestic use 101.4 100.5 105.6 102.7 105.2 120.9 113.0 Exports 75.3 99.3 82.2 77.2 86.3 83.6 82.0 Rough 3.5 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 16.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 80.8 71.5 64.4 60.2 57.9 66.0 Total use 176.7 199.8 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.5 195.0 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.0 49.4 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.7 25.3 $/cwt 5.50 Average farm to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.83 6.00 Percent Average milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.5 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1997/98 to present ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 6.88 10,503 9.35 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 6.23 13,833 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 6.45 1/ 11,184 1/ 8.98 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 9.06 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 9.05 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 8.97 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 8.86 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 8.54 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 8.16 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 8.20 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.15 9,430 9.58 9,290 | Average 2/ | 6.80 11,184 8.83 11,206 9.70 11,093 | Total 3/ | 5.50-6.00 4/ 134,468 133,116 ============================================================================== 1/ Midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 1999/00 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/00 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average price forecast. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | | $/cwt | August | 5.37 5.02 4.92 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 4.66 4.34 4.24 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 4.58 4.28 4.18 2/ 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3/| 4.98 4.65 4.54 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan rate or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market prices. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/00 | 1998/99 or as of | as of 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 region 12/02/99 | 12/02/98 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 227 | 158 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 16 | 15 20 17 16 19 Turkey 73 | 56 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 57 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 161 | 113 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 329 | 96 203 183 315 344 Jordan 20 | 1 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 119 | 26 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 118 | 56 106 96 168 130 AFRICA 123 | 103 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 21 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 39 | 25 61 64 33 48 South Africa 56 | 65 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 444 | 1,112 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 3 | 598 555 28 1 1 Canada 58 | 83 122 107 109 107 Colombia 0 | 11 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 18 | 0 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 0 | 0 61 93 19 3 Ecuador 0 | 0 0 148 0 0 Guatemala 3 | 24 29 25 32 31 Haiti 51 | 44 164 100 86 121 Honduras 28 | 25 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 19 | 0 15 26 28 80 Mexico 193 | 133 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 25 | 24 61 35 68 29 Panama 0 | 0 8 88 0 0 Peru 18 | 99 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 11 | 28 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 16 23 21 21 27 TOTAL 1,431 | 1,662 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,680 3| 2,730 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 4/ | 229 406 459 313 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census total (product-weight basis) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Difference between Census and Export Sales. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Viet 6/ ----------------------- ---------------------------------- ------- Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 N/A 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 N/A 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 391 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 457 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 215 Dec 1999 9/ 298 452 386 239 262 221 194 159 220 1999/00 9/ 310 476 387 237 258 219 198 178 217 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent broken. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. N/A = Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 13.9 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 152.0 Imports 5.9 6.5 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 Total supply 130.6 155.0 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.6 175.5 Domestic use 4/ 59.9 59.6 67.8 62.2 60.7 81.6 73.0 Exports 55.6 81.0 64.8 56.6 71.4 69.1 66.0 Total use 115.5 140.6 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.7 139.0 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 13.9 36.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.2 26.2 --Continued Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present--continued 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.9 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 59.7 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 67.8 Domestic use 4/ 41.6 40.9 37.9 40.5 44.5 39.3 40.0 Exports 19.6 18.3 17.4 20.5 14.9 14.5 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.8 56.0 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.9 11.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.8 21.0 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending inventories of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE