RICE OUTLOOK January 13, 2000 January 2000, ERS-RCS-0100 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: O The 1999 U.S. rice crop is estimated at a record 210.5 million cwt, down 1.3 million from last month's projection, a result of slight reductions in average yield and planted area. O U.S. 1999/2000 rough rice exports are projected at 20 million cwt, up 4 million from a month earlier. The revision was based on the pace of sales through December. O U.S. 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected at 44.6 million cwt, down 10 percent from a month earlier's projection, but more than double 1998/99 ending stocks. O The 1999/2000 U.S. season average farm price is projected at $5.75 to $6.25 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end from last month. O U.S. milling rates for 1997/98 through 1999/2000 were lowered based on milling data. O Global rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 396.5 million tons, up fractionally from a month earlier as larger crops in Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh more than offset reductions for Argentina and the United States. O Global rice trade for 2000 is projected at 23.6 million tons, up 2 percent from last month's projection but 6 percent below a year earlier. Export projections for Thailand and Vietnam were raised for both 1999 and 2000. U.S. 1999/2000 CROP ESTIMATED AT 210.5 MILLION CWT The 1999 U.S. rice crop is estimated at a record 210.5 million cwt, down 1.3 million from last month's projection but up 12 percent from 1998. The smaller projection is the result of a slight reduction in both yield and plantings. On a year-to-year basis, the record crop stems from a 7-percent increase in plantings to 3.58 million acres and a 4-percent increase in average yield to 5,908 pounds per acre. This was the third consecutive year of expanding rice acreage. Medium grain accounts for all of the month-to-month crop reduction. Medium grain production is estimated at 52 million cwt, down 7 percent from last month, but 17 percent larger than a year earlier. In contrast, long grain production was raised more than 1 percent to a record 154.1 million cwt, nearly 9 percent higher than 1998. Short grain production was raised as well, to 4.3 million cwt, a 15-percent increase from last month and more than twice the size of the 1998 crop. Harvested area was lowered fractionally this month to 3.56 million acres, more than 7 percent larger than a year ago and the second highest on record. This month-to-month change was caused by minor reductions for California and Louisiana, that were almost offset by small increases in Arkansas and Missouri. On an annual basis, every State but Texas and Louisiana increased rice acreage in 1999, with record plantings in Arkansas and Missouri. Long grain harvested area is estimated at a record 2.74 million acres, almost 5 percent larger than 1998. In contrast, combined medium/short grain harvested area is estimated at 824,000 acres, 16 percent larger than last year. Total yield was lowered fractionally this month to 5,908 pounds per acre, more than 4 percent above a year earlier. Yields were lowered this month for Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas. In contrast, yields were raised for California and Missouri, with Louisiana's yield raised fractionally. Yields are higher this year in all states except Mississippi, where they are down slightly. Louisiana yield was a record. While California's yield is up 6 percent from last year's severely weather damaged crop, it is still one of the lowest since 1983. Production was lowered this month for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. In contrast, output was raised for California and Missouri. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of this month's lowered production estimate. Production in Arkansas was lowered 1.4 percent to 97 million cwt, due to smaller yield. Louisiana's production was lowered 1.4 percent to 30.8 million cwt, a result of smaller plantings. The Texas crop was lowered 4.7 percent to 15.5 million cwt because of a lower yield. Production was up in every State but Texas in 1999, with record crops projected for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri. A near- record crop is projected for Mississippi. Total U.S. rice supplies for 1999/2000 are projected at a record 243.3 million cwt, down 1.1 million from last month-a result of a smaller crop-but still more than 7 percent larger than 1998/99. A record crop and slightly greater imports are projected to more than offset smaller beginning stocks. Beginning stocks on August 1, 1999 are estimated at 22.1 million cwt, up slightly from a month earlier. The upward revision is due to a lower 1998/99 milling rate. Beginning stocks are nearly 21 percent below a year earlier. California accounted for the bulk of the year-to- year decrease in stocks, primarily due to a weak 1998 harvest. U.S. rice imports in 1999/2000 remain projected at a record 10.75 million cwt, up 220,000 from a year earlier and continuing a long term expansion. About 90 percent of U.S. rice imports are long grain. Although still a small portion of total U.S. rice supplies (less than 5 percent in 1998/99), imports have been steadily increasing for almost two decades. Almost 75 percent of U.S. rice imports are from Thailand--mostly jasmine rice. Most of the remainder is basmati rice from Pakistan and India. U.S. ROUGH RICE EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED TO 20 MILLION CWT Total U.S. rice use, including exports, domestic consumption, and residual (unreported losses in processing and marketing), is forecast at 198.7 million cwt in 1999/2000, up 2 percent from last month's projection but almost 3 percent below the year earlier record. The year-to-year decline stems from weaker exports and smaller total domestic disappearance. Total domestic disappearance (domestic use plus residual) is projected at 116.7 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month's projection, but 2 percent below the year-earlier record. In contrast, domestic use (food, beer, and seed) is projected at a record 110.2 million cwt, up more than 3 percent from last month's projection and more than 2 percent larger than a year earlier. The monthly increase is the result of revised milling rates which raised food and beer use on a rough basis. On an annual basis, food use accounts for all of the expansion in domestic use. By grain type, long grain accounts for all of this month's upward revision in domestic use. Long grain domestic use was raised 5 percent to 76.7 million cwt, still 4 percent below a year earlier. In contrast, combined medium/short grain domestic use remains virtually unchanged from a month earlier at 40 million cwt, 2 percent above 1998/99. U.S. rice exports remain projected at 82 million cwt, down about 4 percent from last year. Rough rice exports are projected at 20 million cwt, up 4 million from last month's projection but 22 percent below 1998/99, a result of sharply reduced sales to Brazil. This month's revision is the result of a strong pace of rough rice sales and shipments through December. The annual decline in rough rice exports is partially offset by a 4-percent increase in milled exports to 62 million cwt, the first increase since 1994/95. Long grain accounts for all of this year's projected decrease in total exports. Long grain exports were reduced slightly this month to 65.5 million cwt, more than 7 percent below last year's level. In contrast, combined medium/short grain exports were raised 500,000 cwt to 16.5 million cwt, more than 13 percent larger than last year. Through December 30, U.S. Exports Sales reported combined exports and outstanding sales at 1.78 million tons, barely 2 percent below a year earlier. However, total exports were almost 21 percent behind a year earlier. This is due entirely to weaker rough rice exports in 1999/2000. In contrast, total milled rice exports were 30 percent ahead of a year earlier. U.S. MEDIUM GRAIN ENDING SUPPLIES TO REMAIN TIGHT IN 1999/2000 U.S. ending stocks are projected at 44.6 million cwt in 1999/2000, down nearly 10 percent from last month's projection but still more than double a year earlier. These are the largest ending stocks since 1986/87 and stem from record supplies and weaker total use. Stocks as a share of total use are forecast at 22.4 percent, up substantially from 10.8 percent a year earlier and the largest stocks-to-use ratio since 1992/93. By grain type, long grain ending stocks in 1999/2000 are projected to rise more than 150 percent from a year earlier to 35.5 million cwt due to a record crop and weaker total use. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected to climb to 25 percent from 9.3 percent a year earliers. The long grain ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratio are the largest since 1985/86. Combined medium/short grain ending stocks are projected at 7.8 million cwt, down more than a third from last month's projection but almost 15 percent larger than last year. The lower ending stocks and greater total use resulted in a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.9 percent, up from 12.7 percent a year earlier. Both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are well below the decade average. Based on data provided by the Rice Millers' Association, milling yields were lowered each year from 1997/98 through 1999/2000. The 1997/98 milling rate was lowered .2 percentage points to 69.3 percent; the 1998/99 rate was lowered from 72 percent to 69.3 percent, and the 1999/2000 projected rate was lowered to 69.5 percent from 72 percent. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE PROJECTION RAISED TO $5.75-$6.25 PER CWT Reported average monthly cash prices declined from August through November, the result of a record harvest and stiff price competition in international markets. Last month, USDA estimated December's midmonth price at $6.14 and lowered November's to $6.11 from a preliminary $6.45. These are the lowest reported monthly cash prices since October 1993. Long grain cash prices are currently quoted around $5.50 per cwt in Texas and slightly lower in the Delta and on the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Prices are up slightly from last month but are nearly $1 below prices at the end of the 1998/99 market year. Price quotes for California medium grain rice were $8.37 per cwt in early January, up about $1 from November. Prices for southern medium grain--grown mostly in the Delta--are reported around $6.00 per cwt. The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.75 to $6.25 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end from last month, but still down a third from $8.83 in 1998/99. The revision is based on monthly cash prices through December and this month's reduction in total supplies. The midpoint of the 1999/2000 SAFP forecast is the lowest since 1992/93. THAI EXPORT PRICES RISE ON STRONGER BAHT Thai export prices for most grades of milled white rice have risen slightly since mid-December, a result of a stronger baht, government intervention purchases, and large sales to Indonesia in late December. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $250 per ton for the week ending January 10, up $10 from December. Prices are up about $15 from November and more than $20 from October. Prices had been on a steady decline since last spring. Thailand recently concluded a large government-to-government sale with Iran. Similar to prices for regular milled rice, quotes for Thai parboiled rice have risen since mid-December, a result of strong demand and limited supplies. Prices for Thai 5-percent parboiled rice are currently quoted at $251 per ton, up slightly from a month earlier but almost $20 below November. Prices for Thai jasmine rice rose in early January, to $451 per ton, up $10-$15 from a month earlier, but remain below levels during the fall. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice continue a rise that began in October, a result of severe flooding in central Vietnam that has hindered transportation and a strong pace of shipments. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $230 per ton in early January, up $10 from a month earlier and $15 from mid-November. However, prices remain well below reported levels during the summer. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) were quoted at $287 per ton for the week ending January 11, down $11 from a week earlier. Prices are down almost $45 per ton from the start of the 1999/2000 season. In the Delta, milled long grain prices are quoted at $276 per ton, down $11 from December and $22 from November. U.S. prices have been slowly declining since early 1999 on expectations of record 1999 supplies and lower international prices. Large food aid sales late in the 1998/99market year have kept U.S. prices from falling further. However, the bulk of these food aid shipments have been completed. In contrast to regular milled rice, prices for U.S. parboiled rice have strengthened. U.S. 5-percent brokens parboiled rice is currently quoted at $408 per ton, up $11 from a weak earlier and up from $386 in early December. Strong demand and limited supplies are behind the rise in parboiled prices. However, prices remain below the 1998/99 average of $418 The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice has recently contracted as U.S. prices have dropped and Thai prices have risen. As of January 11, the difference was less than $40 per ton, down from $59 in November and $65 in October. This is the smallest difference since early 1996. The difference will have to be very small for the United States to be competitive with Thailand in the higher income markets in the Middle East and South Africa. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have remained at $441 per ton since mid-December. Prices were at near-record levels throughout the 1998/99 market year, but began to drop with the start of the 1999 harvest in October. Prices were quoted at $441 per ton bagged (domestic shipment) from mid-October through mid- November, down from $518 in August and most of September. Prices rose to $454 in mid-November when the 1999 California crop projection was lowered. California entered the 1999/2000 market year with extremely low stocks and virtually no rice available for export. CROP PROJECTIONS RAISED FOR THAILAND AND VIETNAM For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 396.5 million tons (milled basis), up almost 600,000 tons from last month and more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Total consumption is projected at a record 394.8 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month and more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier. With production exceeding consumption, ending stocks are forecast to rise almost 3 percent to 58.8 million tons, the largest since 1990/91. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 14.9 percent, fractionally above last month. Thailand and Vietnam-the two largest exporters--account for the bulk of the month-to-month production increase. Thailand?s crop is projected at a record 15.85 million tons, up 450,000 from last month, as good rains and adequate water supplies pushed yields higher for the main season crop. Vietnam's crop was raised 300,000 tons to a near-record 20.1 million based on a higher yield. In addition, Bangladesh's crop was raised 150,000 tons to a record 19.65 million, a result of higher yields. In contrast, U.S. production was lowered 270,000 tons because of a lower milling rate and a slightly smaller rough rice crop. Argentina's production was lowered 40,000 tons to 725,000 on a 15,000-hectare reduction in plantings. Global production in 1998/99 was raised slightly to 391.8 million tons, a result of larger crops in Thailand and Vietnam. The Thai crop was raised 132,000 tons to 15.18 million based on a slightly higher yield. In Vietnam, production was raised 141,000 tons to a record 20.11 million due to greater plantings of the summer- autumn crop. In contrast, the U.S. crop was lowered slightly on a milled basis due to a lower milling rate. EXPORT PROJECTIONS RAISED FOR THAILAND AND VIETNAM Total rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at 23.6 million tons, up 400,000 tons from last month but more than 6 percent below 1999's revised level. Trade remains almost 3.7 million tons below the 1998 record of 27.3 million tons. On the export side, Thailand and Vietnam account for all of the increase. Thailand's exports were raised 200,000 tons to 6 million, a result of a larger crop and greater 1999 exports. Vietnam's exports were raised 200,000 tons to 4.3 million, also a result of a larger crop and higher 1999 exports. There are several revisions to this year's imports based on larger 1999 imports. First, Iran's 2000 imports were raised 200,000 tons to 1.2 million, the largest since 1996. Imports by the EU were raised 50,000 tons to 800,000. Finally, U.S. imports were raised 65,000 tons to 375,000. For calendar year 1999, estimated global trade was raised 3 percent to 25.2 million tons, the second highest on record. On the export side, Thailand's exports were raised 550,000 tons to a record 6.65 million based on official Thai trade data. Vietnam's exports were raised 150,000 tons to 4.65 million based on the pace through November and a larger crop as well. Several upward revisions were made to imports as well based on the pace of deliveries to date. Iran's 1999 imports were raised 150,000 tons to 1 million. Imports by the EU were raised 75,000 tons to 775,000. For the United States, imports are raised 50,000 tons to 350,000. Russia's imports were also raised 50,000 tons to 350,000. Finally, Iraq's imports were raised 25,000 tons to 725,000. --------------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on January 14, 2000 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on February 14, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook is available on the Internet. Printed copies are available as well. The 1999 Rice Yearbook text and other commodity reports and yearbooks may be accessed via the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. NOTE: To order printed copies of the 1999 Rice Yearbook, call 1- 800-999-6779. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1997/98 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present, and imports. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.581 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.562 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,908 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 210.5 Imports 6.9 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 Total supply 202.5 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 243.3 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 84.2 87.3 90.1 Seed 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.1 Brewer's use 14.2 14.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.0 Residual 4/ 12.0 9.9 8.5 2.0 0.2 11.4 6.5 Domestic use 101.5 102.2 105.6 102.7 104.6 119.1 116.7 Exports 75.2 98.1 82.2 77.2 86.9 85.3 82.0 Rough 3.5 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 20.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 79.6 71.5 64.5 60.8 59.6 62.0 Total use 176.7 200.3 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.4 198.7 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 44.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.8 22.4 $/cwt 5.75 Average farm to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.83 6.25 Percent Average milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.3 69.3 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year(August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice.2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1997/98 to present ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 8.95 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 6.88 10,503 9.35 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 6.23 13,833 9.25 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 6.11 12,811 8.98 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 6.14 1/ 11,591 1/ 9.06 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 9.05 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 8.97 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 8.86 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 8.54 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 8.16 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 8.20 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.15 9,430 9.58 9,290 | | Average 2/ | 6.60 11,591 8.83 11,206 9.70 11,093 | Total 3/ |5.75-6.25 4/ 134,468 133,116 ============================================================================== N/A=Not available. 1/ Midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average;1999/00 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/00 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA forecast price range. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt August | 5.37 5.02 4.92 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 4.75 4.44 4.34 2/ 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3/| 4.95 4.62 4.52 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan rate or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/00 | 1998/99 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of Prelim- region 12/30/99 | 12/30/98 inary Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 281 | 197 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 17 | 15 20 17 16 19 Turkey 141 | 56 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 57 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 263 | 185 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 336 | 121 203 183 315 344 Jordan 20 | 20 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 119 | 26 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 122 | 59 106 96 168 130 | AFRICA 126 | 109 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 20 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 42 | 30 61 64 33 48 South Africa 56 | 65 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 554 | 1,120 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 3 556 555 28 1 1 Canada 74 | 87 122 107 109 107 Colombia 0 | 11 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 24 | 0 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 0 | 0 61 93 19 3 Ecuador 0 | 0 0 148 0 0 Guatemala 5 | 24 29 25 32 31 Haiti 59 | 51 164 100 86 121 Honduras 36 | 25 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 19 | 0 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 5 | 11 11 16 17 22 Mexico 237 | 163 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 42 | 29 61 35 68 29 Panama 0 | 0 8 88 0 0 Peru 18 | 99 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 21 | 29 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 16 23 21 21 27 Unknown 0 | 8 TOTAL 1,776 | 1,811 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,590 3/| 2,680 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 4/ | 229 406 459 313 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales report 'does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1995/96 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 205 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 185 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 195 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 195 155 227 Jan 2000 9/ 293 441 403 249 250 229 195 153 230 1999/00 9/ 305 469 391 239 255 221 198 173 221 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered.3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens.5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok.6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent broken.8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. N/A=Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 2.751 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 2.738 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 5,629 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 154.1 Imports 5.9 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 Total supply 130.6 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.7 177.7 Domestic use 4/ 59.4 60.3 67.7 62.3 60.5 79.9 76.7 Exports 56.1 80.8 64.8 56.6 71.6 70.7 65.5 Total use 115.5 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.6 142.2 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 35.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.3 25.0 --continued Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 0.830 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 0.824 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,835 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 56.3 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 64.3 Domestic use 4/ 42.1 41.9 37.9 40.4 44.1 39.2 40.0 Exports 19.1 17.3 17.4 20.6 15.4 14.6 16.5 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.9 56.5 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 7.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.7 13.9 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers which are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending inventories of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium and short grain rice may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE