RICE OUTLOOK Autofax #12461 March 13, 2000 March 2000, ERS-RCS-0300 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o Total U.S. 1999/2000 rice exports are projected at 87 million cwt (rough equivalent), up 1 million from last month's forecast and nearly 2 percent above a year earlier. o U.S. 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected at 39.6 million cwt, down 1 million from last month's forecast but more than 79 percent larger than a year earlier. o The U.S. season-average price is projected at $5.80 to $6.20 per cwt, .....a 5-cent tightening on both the high and low ends from last month. o Global rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 398.3 million tons, up 900,000 tons from last month. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Brazil account for most of the increase. o Global rice trade for 2000 is projected at 23 million tons, down 115,000 tons from last month and more than 8 percent below a year earlier. Brazil and Colombia account for the bulk of this month's reduction in imports. o Global ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at a record 59.3 million tons, down fractionally from last month's projection but nearly 2 percent larger than a year earlier. U.S. RICE SUPPLIES REMAIN PROJECTED AT RECORD 243.3 MILLION CWT There were no revisions to the 1999/2000 U.S. supply. Beginning stocks remain projected at 22.1 million cwt, down 21 percent from last year and the lowest since 1981/82. Long grain beginning stocks are estimated at 14.1 million cwt, down 3 percent. Combined medium/short grain beginning stocks are estimated at 6.82 million cwt, down 45 percent from last year and the smallest since supply and use tables were first reported by grain type in 1982/83. U.S. 1999/2000 rice imports remain projected at a record 10.75 million cwt, up 220,000 from last year. Imports consist mainly of the aromatic varieties from Thailand, India, and Pakistan and have been rising for the past two decades. The 1999 crop was a record 210.5 million cwt, 12 percent larger than a year earlier and the third straight annual increase. A 7-percent increase in plantings and a more than 4-percent increase in yield are responsible. Total plantings of 3.58 million acres are second only to the 1981 record of 3.83 million. The average yield is 5,908 pounds per acre, up 4 percent from a year earlier and the third highest on record. Long grain production is a record 154.1 million cwt, almost 9 percent larger than 1998. Combined medium/short grain production is reported at 56.3 million cwt, up more than 21 percent from last year's weather damaged crop. Total supplies for 1999/2000 remain projected at a record 243.3 million cwt, more than 7 percent higher than last year. Long grain supplies are projected at a record 177.7 million cwt, about 8 percent larger than 1998/99. Combined medium/short grain supplies are projected at 64.3 million cwt, 6 percent larger than last year. U.S. 1999/2000 RICE EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED TO 87 MILLION CWT Total rice use-including exports, domestic consumption, and residual-was raised 1 million cwt to 203.7 million, marginally lower than the 1998/99 record. This month-to-month increase was solely due to a larger export forecast. Total rice exports for 1999/2000 were increased 1 million cwt to 87 million, about 2 percent larger than last year. Rough rice exports account for all of the month-to-month increase. Rough rice exports are projected at 21 million cwt, still almost 19 percent lower than the near-record level shipped last year. The year-to-year decline in is primarily due to a very large reduction in shipments to South America, especially to Brazil. Long grain shipments to Latin America account for the bulk of U.S. rough rice exports. Turkey is the primary market for medium grain rough rice. The month-to-month increase is based on stronger than expected shipments and outstanding sales. Through March 2, U.S. rough rice exports and sales were well ahead of a year earlier's pace to Mexico, Central America, and Turkey. Milled rice exports remain projected at 66 million cwt, 11 percent larger than a year earlier and the first increase since 1994/95. This year-to-year increase is the result of record supplies and lower prices making the U.S. more competitive in some markets, especially Saudi Arabia and South Africa, as well as large food aid shipments early in the 1999/2000 market year. All of the month-to-month increase in total exports is accounted for by long grain. Long grain exports were raised to 70.5 million, virtually unchanged from 1998/99. Combined medium/short grain exports remain projected at 16.5 million cwt, 13 percent above last year. The increase is due to larger shipments to Japan and Turkey. Through March 2, U.S. Export Sales reported combined exports and outstanding sales of all rice at 2.36 million tons (product weight-basis), almost 4 percent larger than a year earlier. In contrast, total exports were reported at 1.9 million tons, almost 5 percent below a year earlier. The slower pace of exports is primarily due to the near-absence of Brazil from the U.S. market in 1999/2000. Exports are actually ahead of a year earlier's pace to several important U.S. markets, including the EU, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, and Central America. U.S. shipments to Indonesia are almost exclusively food aid. Total domestic disappearance-including residual-remains projected at 116.7 million cwt, down 2.4 million cwt from last year's record. In contrast, total domestic utilization-food use, brewers' use, and seed-remains projected at a record 110.2 million cwt, up 2.5 million from last year. Food use, projected up more than 3 percent, accounts for all of the expansion. Over the long term, food use is projected to account for nearly all of the growth in domestic use of rice. U.S. 1999/2000 ENDING STOCKS PROJECTED AT 39.6 MILLION CWT Total U.S. ending stocks are projected at 39.6 million cwt, down 1 million from last month but more than 79 percent larger than a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. The month-to-month reduction is the result of larger exports. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 19.4 percent, down slightly from last month but still well above last year's 10.8 percent and the largest since 1992/93. Long grain rice accounts for all of the month-to-month reduction in stocks. Long grain stocks were reduced 1 million cwt to 30.5, still more than double a year earlier. These are the largest long grain stocks since 1985/86. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 20.7 percent, down slightly from last month's 21.5 percent, but more than double a year earlier. Medium/short grain 1999/2000 ending stocks remain projected at 7.8 million cwt. While up 1 million from last year, ending stocks are more than 36 percent below 1997/98. The medium/short grain stocks-to-use ratio remains projected at 13.9 percent, up slightly from last year. Both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are the second lowest since supply and use were first reported by grain type in 1982/83. PRICES FOR U.S. LONG GRAIN ROUGH RICE REMAIN WEAK Long grain cash prices for rough rice are currently quoted around $5.25 per cwt in the Delta, up 5 to 10 cents from last month but nearly $3 below a year earlier. Prices are a little higher in Texas. Cash prices for long grain rice have traded in a very narrow range since September. Price quotes for California medium grain rice were $8.33 per cwt in early March, down 40-60 cent from January and February. Although well above prices for southern long grain, California medium grain prices are $2 to $3 below a year earlier. Prices for southern medium grain--grown mostly in the Delta--were reported slightly below $6 per cwt in mid-February, up 40 to 50 cents from a month earlier. There has been little marketing of southern medium grain since mid-February. Reported average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have declined since August, the result of record supplies and stiff price competition in global markets. Last month, USDA estimated February's midmonth price at $6.09 and lowered January's to $6.03 from a preliminary $6.27. These are the lowest reported monthly cash prices since October 1993. The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.80 to $6.20 per cwt, a tightening of 5 cents on both the high and low ends from last month's projection. The 1999/2000 SAFP is well below a year earlier's $8.89. Through February, monthly cash prices weighted by marketings averaged $6.36 per cwt, indicating prices will need to drop during the remainder of the market year to achieve the projected SAFP. Expectations of lower prices are based on record U.S. supplies, weaker global trade, and large exportable supplies worldwide. The midpoint of the 1999/2000 SAFP forecast is the lowest since 1992/93. THAI EXPORT PRICES SLIP ON LACK OF NEW SALES Thai export prices for most grades of milled white rice have dropped slightly since late February, primarily due to a lack of new sales. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $244 per ton for the week ending March 6, down $5 from February and about $4 from January. Except for 100 percent brokens, prices for lower quality grades of regular milled white have declined as well. In contrast, quotes for Thai parboiled rice have remained virtually unchanged since late December. Prices for Thai 5-percent parboiled rice are currently quoted at $248 per ton. Prices for Thai jasmine have been reported at $453 since mid-February, up a few dollars from January and $5 to $20 higher than in December. However, prices are nearly $50 per ton below levels last September and October. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice steadily declined from mid-January through mid-February, a result of weaker sales and expectations of a very large winter-spring crop. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $200 per ton in early March, unchanged from a week earlier but down $15 from early February and $30 below early January. Prices had risen in December and January on tight local supplies and strong demand. Prices quotes for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) remain at $276 per ton for the week ending March 6, down $11 from mid-February and $22 below early January. Prices are down almost $60 per ton from the start of the 1999/2000 season. In the Delta, milled long grain prices are quoted at $265 per ton, down $11 from mid-February. U.S. prices have been slowly declining since early 1999 on expectations of record 1999/2000 supplies and lower international prices. In contrast to prices for regular milled rice, price quotes for U.S. parboiled rice have strengthened in 1999/2000. U.S. 5-percent brokens parboiled rice is currently quoted at $408 per ton, unchanged from February but up $11 from early January and $22 from early December. Strong demand and limited supplies are behind the rise in parboiled prices. However, prices remain below the 1998/99 average of $418. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice widened in early March as U.S. prices were steady and Thai prices dropped. As of March 6, the difference was $33 per ton, up from $27 in late February. However, this difference has narrowed substantially since October as U.S. prices have dropped and Thai prices have risen. The current difference is the smallest since early 1996. The price difference will have to be very small for the United States to be competitive with Thailand in the higher income markets in the Middle East and South Africa. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have remained at $441 per ton since mid-December. Prices were at near-record levels throughout the 1998/99 market year, but began to drop with the start of the 1999 harvest in October. Prices were quoted at $441 per ton bagged (domestic shipment) from mid-October through mid-November, down from $518 in August and most of September. Prices rose to $454 in mid-November when the 1999 California crop projection was lowered. Prices dropped slightly in mid-December. GLOBAL RICE CROP FOR 1999/2000 RAISED NEARLY 1 MILLION TONS For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 398.3 million tons (milled basis), up 900,000 from last month and more than 1 percent larger than the revised 1998/99 crop. Total consumption is projected at a record 397.3 million tons, up 590,000 tons from last month and almost 2 percent larger than a year earlier. With production exceeding consumption, ending stocks are forecast to rise nearly 2 percent to a record 59.3 million tons, up fractionally from last month's forecast. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 14.9 percent, virtually identical to last month and a year earlier. South Asia accounts for the largest share of the upward revision in production. Bangladesh's 1999/2000 crop was raised 600,000 tons to a record 20.3 million, a result of higher yields. Pakistan's crop was raised 300,000 tons to 5.1 million based on larger plantings and a higher yield. Nepal's crop was raised 70,000 tons to a record 2.5 million, a result of a higher yield. In South America, Brazil's crop was raised 200,000 tons to 7.2 million due to higher yields. Also, Colombia's production was raised 50,000 tons to 1 million due to larger plantings. There were smaller increases as well. Australia's 1999/2000 crop was raised 42,000 tons to 800,000 based on larger plantings. Uzbekistan's crop was raised 13,000 tons to 269,000, also due to larger plantings. In Europe, Spain's production was raised 20,000 tons to 590,000 due to a higher yield and slightly larger plantings. France's milled rice production was raised 6,000 tons to 62,000, also due to larger plantings and a higher yield. In contrast, production in some countries was reduced, with South America accounting for most of the decline. Argentina's 1999/2000 crop was lowered 125,000 tons to 600,000 due to much lower yields resulting from very dry weather. Uruguay's crop was lowered 80,000 tons to 770,000, with dry weather reducing plantings and lowering yields. Lower yields are behind a 40,000-ton drop in Ecuador's crop to 440,000. Outside South America, Tanzania's 1999/2000 crop was lowered 100,000 tons to 450,000 due to a big drop in area. Greece's rice crop was lowered 36,000 tons to 109,000 based on weaker plantings. Finally, Mozambique's rice crop was lowered 15,000 tons to 85,000, a result of severe drought and flooding. Global production in 1998/99 was raised 790,000 tons to 393.8 million. Bangladesh accounted for the bulk of the increase. Its crop was raised 754,000 tons to nearly 19.9 million on a much larger yield. In South America, Colombia's crop was raised 102,000 tons to 922,000 based on larger plantings. Also, Peru's crop was increased 40,000 tons to nearly 1.2 million, a result of larger plantings. In the EU, a higher yield pushed Italy's production up 55,000 tons to 863,000. Crop estimates for Greece and France were raised slightly. Finally, Nepal's 1998/99 rice crop was raised 25,000 tons to more than 2.4 million due to a higher yield. In contrast, production in several countries was lowered. Uzbekistan's 1998/99 crop was lowered 75,000 tons to 225,000 due to smaller plantings. Brazil's 1998/99 crop was lowered 51,000 tons to 7.74 million based on weaker plantings. Ecuador's crop was reduced 20,000 tons to 460,000, a result of weaker yields.. Tanzania's crop was lowered 20,000 tons to 460,000, due to much weaker plantings. Spain's crop was lowered slightly based on final production data. IMPORT PROJECTIONS LOWERED FOR BRAZIL AND COLOMBIA Total rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at 23 million tons, down 115,000 tons from last month and 8 percent below 1999. On the import side, Brazil's imports were reduced 200,000 tons to 800,000 based on a larger 1999/2000 crop. Also in South America, Colombia's imports were lowered 90,000 tons to 60,000, based on a larger 1999/2000 crop. Vietnam's imports were lowered 60,000 tons to 40,000 based on weaker shipments from Cambodia. In contrast, Uzbekistan's imports were raised from 0 to 30,000 tons. On the export side, smaller crops are behind both a 50,000-ton reduction in Argentina's 2000 exports to 500,000 and a 100,000-ton reduction in Uruguay's exports to 600,000. In contrast, Peru's exports were raised 30,000 tons to 80,000 based on a larger crop. For calendar year 1999, estimated global trade was lowered 240,000 tons to 25 million. Trade in 1999 was second only to the 1998 record of 27.3 million tons. Most 1999 trade revisions were based on final or near-final shipment data. On the import side, Colombia's imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 50,000, Japan's reduced 92,000 tons to 633,000, and Vietnam's lowered 40,000 tons to 60,000-a result of weaker shipments from Cambodia. In contrast, 1999 imports were raised slightly for Uzbekistan, Spain, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, and Mozambique. On the export side, U.S. 1999 exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 2.65 million, Vietnam's lowered 83,000 to 4.55 million, and Japan's reduced 70,000 to 130,000. Food aid accounts for all of Japan's rice exports. In contrast, Peru's exports were raised 10,000 tons to 50,000 based on larger shipments to Ecuador. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on March 14, 2000 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on April 12, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook is available on the Internet. Printed copies are available as well. The 1999 Rice Yearbook text and other commodity reports and yearbooks may be accessed via the ERS website at www.ers.usda.gov. NOTE: To order printed copies of the 1999 Rice Yearbook, call 1-800-999-6779. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. PLEASE NOTE Recent data indicate that very few people are obtaining reports and data from the Autofax system. However, maintaining this system is costly to us. As a result, we are planning to phase out Autofax access to the Rice Outlook Report as of July, 2000. Starting in July, we are planning to only provide access to this report through the Internet. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It will be available in ASCII on the same schedule through the Internet as through the autofax (e.g., at approximately 4:30 EST on the day of release) and in PDF one day latter. If you have questions or concerns about this planned change, please contact Joy Harwood at 202-694-5310 or Fred Surls at 202-694-5202. We want to know who our customers are and how we can best serve you! TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present, and imports Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.581 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.562 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,908 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 210.5 Imports 6.9 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 Total supply 202.5 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 243.3 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 84.2 87.3 90.1 Seed 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.1 Brewers' use 14.2 14.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.0 Residual 4/ 12.0 9.9 8.5 2.0 0.2 11.4 6.5 Domestic use 101.5 102.2 105.6 102.7 104.6 119.1 116.7 Exports 75.2 98.1 82.2 77.2 86.9 85.3 87.0 Rough 3.5 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 21.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 79.6 71.5 64.5 60.8 59.6 66.0 Total use 176.7 200.3 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.4 203.7 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 39.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.8 19.4 $/cwt 5.80 Average farm to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.20 Percent Average milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.3 69.3 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A=Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Market year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 6.88 10,503 9.42 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 6.09 1/ 13,104 1/ 9.02 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 8.93 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 8.49 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 8.21 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 8.25 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.26 9,430 9.58 9,290 | Average 2/ | 6.36 13,104 8.89 11,206 9.70 11,093 | Total 3/ |5.80-6.20 4/ 134,468 133,116 ============================================================================== N/A=Not available. 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/Price is market year weighted average; 1999/00 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/00 is August to current month only. 4/ Preliminary. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt August | 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 4.37 4.21 4.38 2/ 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3/| 4.82 4.54 4.50 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan rate or prevailing world market price. 2/ Prel. 3/ Simple average of weekly world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/00 | 1998/99 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 3/02/00 | 3/02/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 325 | 237 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 17 | 16 20 17 16 19 Turkey 187 | 69 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 57 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 360 | 323 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 393 | 133 203 183 315 344 Jordan 20 | 21 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 118 | 26 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 174 | 66 106 96 168 130 AFRICA 169 | 128 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 20 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 55 | 44 61 64 33 48 South Africa 84 | 68 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 846 | 1,360 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 4 | 554 555 28 1 1 Canada 86 | 109 122 107 109 107 Colombia 0 | 11 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 53 | 0 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 33 | 50 61 93 19 3 Ecuador 0 | 0 0 148 0 0 Guatemala 22 | 24 29 25 32 31 Haiti 84 | 79 164 100 86 121 Honduras 60 | 39 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 19 | 13 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 9 | 11 11 16 17 22 Mexico 348 | 256 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 55 | 33 61 35 68 29 Panama 8 | 5 8 88 0 0 Peru 19 | 101 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 32 | 33 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 23 23 21 21 27 TOTAL 2,355 | 2,267 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,740 3/| 2,680 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 4/ | (149) 406 459 313 ============================================================================== N/A= Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports/sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census total (product-weight)is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1995/96 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 N/A 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 N/A 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 205 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 185 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 195 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 195 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 157 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 251 247 225 191 156 208 Mar 2000 9/ 276 441 408 244 248 219 185 154 200 1999/00 9/ 298 462 395 241 253 221 195 169 216 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. N/A = Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 2.751 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 2.738 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 5,629 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 154.1 Imports 5.9 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 Total supply 130.6 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.7 177.7 Domestic use 4/ 59.4 60.3 67.7 62.3 60.5 79.9 76.7 Exports 56.1 80.8 64.8 56.6 71.6 70.7 70.5 Total use 115.5 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.6 147.2 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 30.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.3 20.7 Continued--- Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ==============================================================================M EDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 0.830 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 0.824 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,835 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 56.3 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 64.3 Domestic use 4/ 42.1 41.9 37.9 40.4 44.1 39.2 40.0 Exports 19.1 17.3 17.4 20.6 15.4 14.6 16.5 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.9 56.5 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 7.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.7 13.9 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for a in Table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. 4/ Accounts for difference beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal summation of beginning stocks, production, and imports END_OF_FILE