RICE OUTLOOK April 12, 2000 April 2000, ERS-RCS-0400 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o U.S. 1999/2000 rough rice exports are projected at 23 million cwt (rough equivalent), up 2 million from last month's forecast. In contrast, milled rice exports were lowered 2 million cwt to 64 million. o U.S. 1999/2000 long grain exports were lowered 2 million cwt to 68.5 million, while combined medium/short grain exports were raised 2 million cwt to 18.5 million. o U.S. combined medium/short grain ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 6.8 million cwt, down 1 million from last month's forecast and the lowest since 1982/83. Long grain ending stocks were raised 1 million cwt to 31.5 million. o The U.S. season-average price is projected at $6.05 to $6.15 per cwt, an increase of 25 cents on the low end and a 5-cent drop on the high end from last month. o Global rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 400.7 million tons, up 2.4 million from last month. India accounts for most of the increase. o Global rice trade for 2000 is projected at 22.3 million tons (milled basis), down nearly 3 percent from last month and almost 11 percent below a year earlier. China, India, and Pakistan account for the bulk of this month's reduction in exports. o Global ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at a record 61.8 million tons, up about 4 percent from last month's projection and a year earlier. PLANTING INTENTIONS INDICATE ALMOST 3.4 MILLION RICE ACRES IN 2000 The March Prospective Plantings reported U.S. rice farmers intended to plant almost 3.4 million acres to rice in 2000/01, down almost 6 percent from a year earlier but still among the largest on record. A substantial drop in rice prices from a year earlier is behind most of the expected decline. Producers indicated long grain plantings would be down 8 percent while medium grain acreage would expand 7 percent. California accounts for more than 90 percent of the intended increase in medium grain plantings, the bulk of the State's production. Short grain acreage, accounting for less than 2 percent of total U.S. rice acreage, is expected to drop 47 percent, with California accounting for all of the drop. Rice acreage was indicated down in all southern States except Missouri, with Mississippi and Texas reporting the largest percentage declines. Producers in Missouri, the smallest rice producing State, indicated a 3-percent increase in plantings to a record 190,000 acres. In contrast, growers in California indicated a 5-percent increase in plantings to 565,000 acres, the largest since the 1981 record of 600,000. Relatively strong prices for California medium grain rice during 1999/2000 are behind expectations of greater California plantings. Medium grain area is expected to be higher in Arkansas as well. The survey of planting intentions was conducted in early March, before any significant amount of rice was planted. Adverse weather or changes in relative prices among crops could alter actual plantings. The first USDA survey of actual 2000 plantings will be conducted in June. Through April 9, about 17 percent of the 2000 U.S. crop had been planted, slightly ahead of a year earlier and the 5-year average. In Texas and Louisiana, more than half the rice crops were planted, with both States ahead of their 5-year average. Very little planting had occurred in the Delta, with Mississippi well behind its 5-year average. In California, 1 percent of the crop was planted, ahead of last year and the 5-year average. U.S. ROUGH RICE EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED TO 23 MILLION CWT There were no revisions to the 1999/2000 U.S. supply. Total rice use-including exports, domestic use, and residual-was raised fractionally to 203.8 million cwt, slightly below last year's record. Total U.S. rice exports for 1999/2000 remain projected at 87 million cwt, about 2 percent larger than last year. Rough rice exports were raised 2 million cwt to 23 million. Although nearly 11 percent lower than a year earlier, rough rice exports are still the third largest on record. The revision was based on the pace of rough rice shipments through March. Through March, shipments to Mexico, Turkey, and Central America were well ahead of a year earlier, offsetting much of Brazil's absence from the U.S. market in 1999/2000. Turkey accounts for almost all U.S. exports of medium grain rough rice. Milled rice exports (on a rough equivalent basis) were reduced 2 million cwt to 64 million, still more than 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The month-to-month reduction is based on the pace of shipments through March and expectations regarding the timing of fiscal 2000 food aid shipments. The year-to-year increase is primarily due to lower prices that have made the United States more competitive in several price sensitive markets (especially Saudi Arabia and South Africa), large food aid shipments early in the 1999/2000 marketing year, and record U.S. supplies. By grain type, long grain exports were reduced 2 million cwt to 68.5 million, 3 percent below last year's level. The 1999/2000 projection for combined medium/short grain exports was raised 2 million cwt to 18.5 million, almost 27 percent larger than last year. This year-to-year increase is the result of strong shipments to Turkey and Japan, the top markets for U.S. medium grain. Through March 30, U.S. Export Sales reported combined exports and outstanding sales of all rice at 2.57 million tons (product- weight basis), almost 4 percent larger than last year. Total exports were reported at 2.27 million tons, nearly 3 percent larger than a year ago. To date, U.S. exports have been well ahead of a year earlier to Mexico, the EU, Japan, Turkey, and Central America. Total domestic disappearance-including the residual--is projected at 116.8 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last month but 2 percent below the year earlier record. The only revision was a fractional increase in seed use based on intended plantings from the Prospective Plantings report. By grain type, long grain domestic use was raised 1 million cwt to 77.7 million cwt, 3 percent below the year earlier record. In contrast, combined medium/short grain use was lowered 1 million cwt to 39.1 million, virtually unchanged from 1998/99. The revisions were based on extremely tight supplies and higher prices for medium grain that caused some substitution to long grain in certain processed uses. U.S. MEDIUM/SHORT GRAIN ENDING STOCKS LOWERED TO 6.8 MILLION CWT Total U.S. ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 39.5 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last month but more than 79 percent larger than last year and the largest since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 19.4 percent, the largest since 1992/93. Long grain ending stocks were increased 1 million cwt to 31.5 million, more than double a year earlier. The month-to-month increase is the result of a 1-million-cwt increase in domestic use being more than offset by a 2 million-ton reduction in exports. These are the largest long grain stocks since 1985/86. The stocks-to-use ratio was raised slightly to 21.6 percent, well above last year's 9.3 percent and the largest since 1986/87. In contrast, combined medium/short grain stocks were reduced 1 million cwt to 6.8 million, marginally lower than last year and the smallest since supply and use tables were first published by grain type in 1982/83. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered to 11.8 percent from 13.9 and is also the lowest on record. PRICES FOR U.S. LONG GRAIN ROUGH RICE REMAIN WEAK Long grain cash prices for rough rice are currently quoted slightly above $5.00 cwt in the Delta, down almost 20 cents from a month earlier and $1.75 below a year earlier. Prices were reported around $5.68 in Texas. Price quotes for California medium grain rice were $8.23 per cwt in early April, down 10 cents from early March. The bulk of the California crop has already been marketed. Although well above prices for southern long grain, California medium grain prices are $2 to $3 below a year earlier. Quoted prices for southern medium grain--grown mostly in the Delta--were reported a little over $6 per cwt, nearly unchanged from a month earlier. There has been little marketing of southern medium grain since mid-February. Reported average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have declined since August, due to record supplies and stiff competition in global markets. Last month, USDA estimated March's midmonth price at $5.99 per cwt and lowered February's to $5.98 from a preliminary $6.09. These are the lowest reported monthly cash prices since September 1993. The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $6.05 to $6.15 per cwt, an increase of 25 cents on the low end and a drop of 5 cents on the high end from last month's projection. The revision is based on reported monthly cash prices through mid-March. The 1999/2000 SAFP is well below a year earlier's $8.89. The midpoint of the 1999/2000 SAFP forecast is the lowest since 1992/93. Through mid-March, monthly cash prices weighted by marketings averaged $6.30 per cwt, indicating prices will need to drop during the remainder of the market year to achieve the projected SAFP. Expectations of lower prices are based on record U.S. supplies, weaker global trade, and large exportable supplies worldwide. THAI, VIET EXPORT PRICES DROP Thai export prices for most grades of milled white rice have dropped since early March, primarily due to a lack of new sales. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $229 per ton for the week ending April 11, down from $235 in March and $251 in February. Prices for lower quality grades of regular milled white have also declined. Quotes for Thai parboiled rice have declined since early March, after remaining nearly stable since late 1999. Prices for Thai 5-percent parboiled rice are currently quoted at $231 per ton, down from $238 in March. Prices for Thai jasmine have ranged from $444 to $453 since the start of 2000. Prices were reported at $449 for the week ending April 11, up a few dollars from a week earlier and nearly equal to the March average. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have declined at an even faster pace than Thai prices. Quotes for Vietnamese 5- percent brokens were reported at $175 per ton in early April, down $10 from a week earlier and $25 below prices in early March. A bumper winter-spring harvest and weaker sales are behind the drop in price. Price quotes for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) remain at $276 per ton for the week ending April 10, down $11 from mid-February and $22 below early January. Prices are down almost $60 per ton from the start of the 1999/2000 season. In the Delta, milled long grain prices are quoted at $254 per ton, down $11 from mid- March. In contrast to prices for regular milled rice, price quotes for U.S. parboiled rice have strengthened in 1999/2000. Quotes for U.S. 5-percent brokens parboiled rice have remained at $408 per ton since early January. Prices were $397 at the start of the market year. Strong demand and limited supplies are behind the rise. However, prices remain below the 1998/99 average of $418. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice widened in early April as U.S. prices were steady and Thai prices dropped. As of April 11, the difference was $47 per ton, up from $32 in early March. However, this difference has narrowed substantially since October, primarily a result of weaker U.S. prices and slightly higher Thai prices. The current difference is the smallest since early 1996. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have remained at $441 per ton since mid-December. Prices were at near-record levels throughout 1998/99, but began to drop with the start of the 1999 harvest in October. GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION IN 1999/2000 PROJECTED AT 400.7 MILLION TONS For 1999/2000, world rice production is projected at a record 400.7 million tons (milled basis), up 2.4 million from last month and nearly 2 percent larger than the revised 1998/99 crop. Total consumption is projected at a record 398.4 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from last month and more than 2 percent larger than a year earlier. With production exceeding consumption, ending stocks are forecast to rise 4 percent to a record 61.8 million tons, up more than 4 percent from last month's forecast. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.5 percent, up from 14.9 last month and 15.3 a year earlier. India accounts for the bulk of the upward revision in production. India's 1999/2000 crop was raised 2 million tons to a record 86.5 million (milled basis) based on higher yields resulting from less cyclone damage last fall in Orissa, record crops in several states, and an improved outlook for the spring/summer harvest. Rice crops in other Asian countries were revised upward. Vietnam's crop was raised 200,000 tons to a record 20.3 million based on larger plantings. Higher yields are behind a 75,000-ton increase in Malaysia's crop to a record 1.37 million tons. Sri Lanka's crop was raised 50,000 tons to 1.8 million, also due to higher yields. Slightly larger area is responsible for a 20,000- ton increase in South Korea's crop to 5.26 million. Outside Asia, Brazil's crop was increased 50,000 tons to 7.25 million, a result of higher yields. Portugal's rice crop was raised 6,000 tons to 114,000 due to higher yields; area was actually lowered. Larger plantings pushed Russia's rice crop up fractionally to 290,000 tons. Rice production was not lowered this month in any country. Global production in 1998/99 was raised fractionally to 393.8 million tons. Sri Lanka's crop was raised 62,000 tons to 1.83 million due to a higher yield. Larger area was behind a 25,000- ton increase in Malaysia's crop to 1.23 million tons. Rice production in Costa Rica, Uzbekistan, and Russia was increased by smaller amounts. Nearly offsetting these increases were several reductions. Turkey's crop was lowered 40,000 tons to 190,000 due to smaller plantings and a lower yield. In addition, rice crops in Ukraine, Portugal, and Zambia were lowered slightly. While South Korea's milled production was unchanged, its rough rice crop was lowered due to a higher milling yield. EXPORT PROJECTIONS FOR 2000 LOWERED FOR INDIA, CHINA, & PAKISTAN Total rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at 22.3 million tons, down 3 percent from last month. Trade for 2000 is almost 11 percent below 1999 and 18 percent smaller than the 1998 record. On the export side, India's exports were lowered 300,000 tons to 1.2 million based on weaker coarse rice exports, a result of high Indian prices and weaker global demand. Both China's and Pakistan's 2000 exports were lowered 150,00 tons, to 2.7 million and 1.85 million, due to weaker global demand. Burma's exports were lowered to 50,000 tons from 100,000 based on reduced 1999 exports. Finally, Guyana's exports were lowered 10,000 to 300,000. Bangladesh accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month reduction in global imports. Bangladesh's 2000 imports were lowered 500,000 tons to 400,000 based on weaker Indian exports, high domestic stocks, and a bumper crop. Imports were lowered in several other countries. Brazil's imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on a larger crop and a voluntary export restriction among Mercosur countries. Two consecutive years of large crops are behind a 75,000-ton reduction in Peru's imports to 125,000. Finally, Sri Lanka's imports were lowered 75,000 tons to 100,000 based on a larger crop. Partially offsetting the import reduction were several increases. Iraq's 2000 imports were raised 150,000 tons to 850,000 based on expectations of larger food-for-oil shipments. Expectations of larger food aid shipments are responsible for a 150,000-ton increase in North Korea's imports to 300,000. Nigeria's 2000 imports were raised 125,000 tons to 975,000 based on rising consumption. Larger 1999 imports were behind a 50,000-ton increase in Russia's imports to 350,000, a 35,000-ton increase in Haiti's to 235,000, and a 30,000-ton rise in Chile's to 101,000. Smaller increases were made for Bolivia, Cuba, Hungary, Liberia, Poland, and Yemen. For calendar year 1999, estimated global trade remains virtually unchanged at 25 million tons as downward revisions were nearly offset by upward adjustments. Most 1999 trade revisions were based on final or near-final shipment data. On the import side, Peru's imports were lowered 75,000 tons to 125,000 tons based on a large domestic crop. Also, Brazil's imports were lowered 72,000 tons to 778,000 based on final shipment data. The reductions were nearly offset by numerous increases. Russia's imports were raised 100,000 tons to 465,000, Sri Lanka's 50,000 tons to 200,000, and Nigeria's 50,000 to 950,000-all due to final shipment data. In addition, a smaller crop is behind a 50,000-ton increase in Turkey's imports to 300,000 tons. Smaller increases in 2000 imports were made for Algeria, Bolivia, Chile, Hungary, Kuwait, Liberia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Sudan, and Yemen. On the export side, Uruguay's 1999 exports were lowered 40,000 tons to 685,000 based on final shipment data. Burma's exports were reduced 18,000 tons to 57,000 based on government data. Nearly offsetting these reductions was a 25,000-ton increase in shipments from Liberia and a 4,000-ton increase in Argentina's exports to 654,000 tons. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on April 13, 2000 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on May 15, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook is available on the Internet. Printed copies are available as well. The 1999 Rice Yearbook text and other commodity reports and yearbooks may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. NOTE: To order printed copies of the 1999 Rice Yearbook, call 1- 800-999-6779. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. PLEASE NOTE Recent data indicate that very few people are obtaining reports and data from the Autofax system. However, maintaining this system is costly to us. As a result, we are planning to phase out Autofax access to the Rice Outlook as of July, 2000. Starting in July, we plan to only provide access to this report through the Internet. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It will be available in ASCII on the same schedule through the Internet as through the autofax (e.g., at approximately 4:30 EST on the day of release) and in PDF a day later. If you have questions or concerns about this planned change, please contact Joy Harwood at 202-694-5310 or Fred Surls at 202-694-5202. We want to know who our customers are and how we can best serve you! TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1998/99 1999/00 Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.581 Harvested 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.562 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,908 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 Production 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 210.5 Imports 6.9 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 Total supply 202.5 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 243.3 Food 71.2 74.0 78.0 81.0 84.2 87.3 90.1 Seed 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.2 Brewers' use 14.2 14.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.0 Residual 4/ 12.0 9.9 8.5 2.0 0.2 11.4 6.5 Domestic use 101.5 102.2 105.6 102.7 104.6 119.1 116.8 Exports 75.2 98.1 82.2 77.2 86.9 85.3 87.0 Rough 3.5 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 23.0 Milled 5/ 71.8 79.6 71.5 64.5 60.8 59.6 64.0 Total use 176.7 200.3 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.4 203.8 Ending stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 39.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 14.6 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.8 19.4 $/cwt 6.05 Average farm to price 6/ 7.98 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.15 Percent Average milling rate 74.0 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.3 69.3 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A= Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings,rough equivalent ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 6.88 10,503 9.42 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 5.99 1/ 13,137 1/ 8.93 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 8.49 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 8.21 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 8.25 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.26 9,430 9.58 9,290 | Average 2/ | 6.30 13,137 8.89 11,206 9.70 11,093 | Total 3/ |6.05-6.15 4/ 134,468 133,116 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 1999/00 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/00 is August to current month only. 4/ Preliminary. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt August | 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 4.28 4.04 4.21 2/ 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3/| 4.75 4.47 4.46 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/00 | 1998/99 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 3/30/00 | 3/30/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union 343 | 281 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 18 | 17 20 17 16 19 Turkey 188 | 84 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 57 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 371 | 323 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 401 | 162 203 183 315 344 Jordan 21 | 41 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 118 | 26 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 179 | 73 106 96 168 130 AFRICA 175 | 135 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 20 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 61 | 51 61 64 33 48 South Africa 83 | 68 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,019 | 1,469 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 4 | 555 555 28 1 1 Canada 90 | 117 122 107 109 107 Colombia 0 | 11 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 83 | 40 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 35 | 56 61 93 19 3 Ecuador 0 | 0 0 148 0 0 Guatemala 34 | 25 29 25 32 31 Haiti 98 | 91 164 100 86 121 Honduras 62 | 44 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 19 | 15 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 12 | 11 11 16 17 22 Mexico 429 | 290 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 78 | 33 61 35 68 29 Panama 8 | 5 8 88 0 0 Peru 19 | 101 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 31 | 33 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 23 23 21 21 27 TOTAL 2,571 | 2,472 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,740 3/| 2,680 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 4/ | (149) 406 459 313 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1995/96 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 N/A 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 N/A 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 205 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 185 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 195 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 195 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 157 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 251 247 225 191 156 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 276 441 408 229 230 203 174 148 175 1999/00 9/ 296 460 397 239 249 218 192 167 211 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2,4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1,4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. N/A = Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 2.751 Harvested 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 2.738 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 5,629 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 Production 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 154.1 Imports 5.9 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 Total supply 130.6 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.7 177.7 Domestic use 4/ 59.4 60.3 67.7 62.3 60.5 79.9 77.7 Exports 56.1 80.8 64.8 56.6 71.6 70.7 68.5 Total use 115.5 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.6 146.2 Ending stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 31.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.0 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.3 21.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --Continued Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1993/94 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================== Item 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ==============================================================================M EDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.818 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 0.830 Harvested 0.805 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 0.824 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,835 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 Production 53.0 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 56.3 Imports 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 Total supply 5/ 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 64.3 Domestic use 4/ 42.1 41.9 37.9 40.4 44.1 39.2 39.1 Exports 19.1 17.3 17.4 20.6 15.4 14.6 18.5 Total use 61.2 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.9 57.6 Ending stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 16.3 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.7 11.8 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE