RICE OUTLOOK May 15, 2000 May 2000, ERS-RCS-0500 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. (Due to a delay this report was released on 5-16-00) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 2000/01 U.S. rice crop is projected at 200 million cwt (rough basis), down 5 percent from the year earlier's record but still the second largest. The reduction is due to smaller plantings. o U.S. 2000/01 total rice exports are projected at 87 million cwt (rough basis), unchanged from a year earlier. Milled rice exports remain projected at 64 million cwt and rough rice at 23 million. o U.S. ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 43.9 million cwt, up 11 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. o The U.S. 2000/01 season-average price is projected at $4.75 to $5.75 per cwt, down from this year's $6.05 to $6.15. o Global rice production in 2000/01 is projected at 400.3 million tons (milled basis), down more than 2 million from the year earlier's record. o Global rice trade for market year 2000/01 is projected at almost 25.2 million tons (milled basis), up more 10 percent from a year earlier but still 6 percent below 1998/99. o Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at nearly 59.9 million tons, down more than 4 percent from the year earlier's record. U.S. 2000/01 ROUGH RICE CROP PEGGED AT 200 MILLION CWT The first projection for the 2000/01 U.S. rice crop is 200 million cwt (rough basis), about 5 percent below last year's record but still the second highest. The decline stems from a more than 5-percent drop in plantings to 3.4 million acres. In contrast, the average yield is projected to increase slightly to 5,935 pounds per acre. The 2000 crop projection is based on farmers? planting intentions, average abandonment, and a projected yield. The yield projection is derived from an Olympic average (drop high and low) weighted by state and grain type. A 5-year Olympic average was used for the southern rice producing States, a 10- year for California. The acreage projections are from the March 2000 Prospective Plantings report which surveyed farmers? planting intentions as of March 1. Actual plantings may differ. On June 30, USDA will publish the survey of actual 2000 plantings. Total supply for 2000/01 is projected at a record 250.5 million cwt, up 3 percent from last year. A larger carryin and greater imports more than offset smaller production. Beginning stocks are projected at 39.5 million cwt up almost 79 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1987/88. Imports (consisting mainly of aromatic varieties) are projected at a record 11 million cwt, up 250,000 from this year. Nearly 75 percent of U.S. rice imports are from Thailand (mainly jasmine) with most India and Pakistan providing most of the remainder. Total use for 2000/01 is projected at 206.6 million cwt, up more than 1 percent from a year earlier. The increase is the result of a 2.4-percent rise in total domestic use (food, industrial, and residual plus seed) to 119.6 million cwt. Total exports are projected at 87 million cwt, unchanged from 1999/2000. Rough rice exports are projected to remain at 23 million cwt, with Mexico, Central America, and Turkey expected to be top markets again. Milled rice exports are projected at 64 million cwt, also unchanged from 1999/2000, with the EU, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa expected to be top markets again. Ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected to increase 11 percent to 43.9 million cwt as record total supply outstrips the small increase in total use. These will be the largest ending stocks since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 21.3 percent, up nearly 2 percentage points from 1999/2000 and the largest since 1992/93. As of May 7, plantings were 75 percent complete, slightly ahead of a year earlier and the 5-year average. Plantings in Texas and Louisiana were nearly complete with both States ahead of their respective 5-year averages. Due to wet conditions, planting in Mississippi was 63 percent complete, well behind the 5-year average of 84 percent. Plantings in Arkansas were 71 percent complete, slightly ahead of its 5-year average. Plantings in California are 60 percent complete, well ahead of the 5-year average of 22 percent. About 48 percent of the U.S. crop had emerged by May 7, slightly ahead of a year earlier and the 5-year average. About 88 percent of the Texas crop and 84 percent of the Louisiana crop had emerged, ahead of a year earlier and their 5-year averages. Only 35 percent of the Mississippi crop had emerged, well below its 56-percent 5-year average. In California, 15 percent of the crop had emerged, well ahead of the State's 4-percent average. LONG GRAIN SUPPLIES ARE PROJECTED TO BE RECORD HIGH IN 2000/01 Total long grain supplies are projected at a record 179.5 million cwt, up slightly from a year earlier as a larger carryin and greater imports more than offset a smaller crop. Beginning stocks are projected at 31.5 million cwt, more than double a year earlier's 14.1 million and the largest since 1986/87. Long grain production is projected at 138.2 million cwt, down 10 percent from the year earlier's record. Farmers indicated in March that long grain plantings would be down nearly 8 percent from the 1999 record. Imports are projected at a record 9.8 million cwt, up 250,000 cwt. Total long grain use is projected at 148 million cwt, up more than 1 percent from a year earlier but still slightly below the 1998/99 record. The increase comes as a 3-percent increase in total domestic use (including residual) more than offset a slight reduction in long grain exports to 68 million cwt. Long grain ending stocks are projected at 31.5 million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 21.3 percent, fractionally below a year earlier and the second largest since 1986/87. Combined medium/short grain supplies for 2000/01 are projected at 69.8 million cwt, up more than 8 percent from a year earlier due to a 10-percent increase in production to 61.8 million cwt. Beginning stocks are projected at 6.8 million cwt, down fractionally from a year earlier and the lowest since supply and use were first reported by grain type in 1982. Total medium/short grain use is projected at 58.6 million cwt, up almost 2 percent from 1999/2000. The increase is the result of an almost 3-percent increase in exports to 19 million cwt and a more than 1-percent increase in domestic use and residual. Ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected to increase 65 percent to 11.2 million cwt. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 19.1 percent, well above a year earlier's 11.8 percent. There were no revisions this month to the 1999/2000 U.S. rice supply and use projections. Through May 4, U.S. Export Sales reported combined exports and outstanding sales of all rice at 2.69 million tons (product weight basis), 2.5 percent above a year earlier. Total exports were reported at 2.47 million tons, slightly larger than a year earlier. To date, U.S. exports to Mexico, the EU, Japan, Turkey, and Central America have been well ahead of a year earlier's pace. U.S. SEASON AVERAGE PRICE FORECAST AT $4.75 TO $5.75 PER CWT IN 2000/01 The 2000/01 season average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $4.75 to $5.75 per cwt, well below a year earlier's $6.05 to $6.15. The 2000/01 SAFP would be the lowest since 1986/87. Record supplies and stiff price competition in the international market are behind the lower price. The 1999/2000 U.S. SAFP has been supported by relatively high prices for California medium grain rice during most of the year, especially the first 6 months, even as southern long grain prices dropped substantially. In 2000/01, a much larger medium/short grain crop is expected to substantially reduce California's price premium over long grain. The bulk of California's rice crop is medium grain and the State produces about two-thirds of the U.S. medium grain crop. Reported average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have declined since August, due to record supplies and stiff competition in global markets. Last month, USDA estimated April's midmonth price at $5.82 per cwt and lowered March's to $5.82 from a preliminary $5.99. These are the lowest reported monthly cash prices since September 1993. Through mid-April, monthly cash prices weighted by marketings averaged $6.23 per cwt, indicating prices will need to drop during the remainder of the market year to achieve the projected SAFP Long grain cash prices for rough rice are currently quoted just below $5.00 cwt in the Delta, down slightly from a month earlier. Prices were reported around $5.55 in Texas, also down slightly from a month earlier. Quotes for California medium grain rice remain at $8.23 per cwt. The bulk of the California crop has already been marketed. Quoted prices for southern medium grain--grown mostly in the Delta--were reported a little over $6 per cwt, nearly unchanged from a month earlier. Marketings of southern medium grain have been light since mid-February. THAI EXPORT PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL ON LACK OF NEW SALES Thai export prices for most grades of milled white rice have dropped since early April, primarily due to a lack of new sales. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $209 per ton for the week ending May 9, down from $229 a month earlier. Prices were $235 in March and $251 in February. Except for 100 percent brokens, prices for lower quality grades of regular milled white have also declined. Prices for 100 percent brokens have strengthened slightly since early April. Quotes for Thai parboiled rice have declined since early March, after remaining nearly stable since late 1999. Prices for Thai 5-percent parboiled rice are currently quoted at $219 per ton, down from $229 in April and $231 in March. Prices for Thai jasmine have strengthened since late April and are currently quoted at $479 per ton, up from $449 a month earlier. Prices had ranged from $444 to $453 from January 2000 through March 2000. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have remained almost unchanged since early April. Quotes for Vietnamese 5- percent brokens have been reported at $175 per ton since early April, down $25 from early March. The government of Vietnam is pursuing policies to support farm and milled rice prices. Price quotes for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice have steadily dropped since mid-April. Quotes for high quality southern long grain (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) were reported at $254 per ton for the week ending May 8, down from $259 a weak earlier and $265 in mid-April. Prices had remained at $276 per ton from late February through early April. Prices are down more than $75 per ton from the start of the 1999/2000 season. In the Delta, milled long grain prices are quoted at $254 per ton, down $11 from mid-March. These are the lowest prices for U.S. long grain milled rice since September 1987. Prices for U.S. parboiled milled rice were quoted at $397 per ton for the week ending May 8, down $11 from a week earlier. Quotes for U.S. 5-percent brokens parboiled rice had remained at $408 per ton since early January. In contrast to prices for regular milled rice, price quotes for U.S. parboiled rice have shown little weakness in 1999/2000, a result of strong demand and limited supplies. However, prices remain below the 1998/99 average of $418. The price difference between Thai and U.S. rice widened in early May as Thai prices dropped faster than U.S. prices. For the week ending May 9, the difference was $45 per ton, down slightly from a week earlier but up from $42 in late April and $33 in early March. However, this difference has narrowed substantially since October, primarily a result of much weaker U.S. prices. The current difference is the smallest since early 1996. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have remained at $441 per ton since mid-December. Prices were at near-record levels throughout 1998/99, but began to drop with the start of the 1999 harvest in October. Nearly all export sales of the 1999/20000 California medium grain crop have already occurred. GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION IN 2000/01 PROJECTED AT 400.3 MILLION TONS For 2000/01, world rice production is projected at 400.3 million tons (milled basis), down more than 2 million from this year's revised record. Total foreign production is projected at 394 million tons, down 1.8 million from 1999/2000. The largest rice producing countries are all expected to produce record or near- record crops in 2000/01. Bumper crops are projected for the major exporting countries as well. The projections assume normal weather worldwide. USDA will report country specific projections for 2000/01 in July. Total consumption is projected at a record 403 million tons, up 3.5 million tons from 1999/2000. With consumption exceeding production, ending stocks are forecast to drop 4 percent to 59.9 million tons. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 14.9 percent, down from 15.7 percent a year earlier. For 1999/2000, global rice production was revised up 1.7 million tons to a record 402.5 million, up 2 percent from a year earlier. Total consumption is projected at 399.5 million tons, up nearly 3 percent from a year earlier and the largest to date. With production exceeding consumption, ending stocks are forecast to rise to 5 percent to a record 62.6 million tons. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.7 percent, up slightly from a year earlier. Bangladesh accounts for the bulk of the upward revision in 1999/2000 production. Bangladesh's 1999/2000 crop was raised 1.3 million tons to a record 21.5 million (milled basis) due to larger plantings and a slightly higher yield. Elsewhere in Asia, Burma's crop was raised 310,000 tons to a record 9.86 million, a result of a higher yield. Outside Asia, Brazil's production was increased 220,000 tons to 7.4 million due to slightly larger plantings. Uruguay's crop was raised 30,000 tons to 800,000 due to higher yields. Small upward revisions were made to both Iraq's and Venezuela's crops. In contrast, Iran's 1999/2000 production was lowered 50,000 tons to 1.55 million due to lower area. Iran is experiencing a severe drought this year. MARKET YEAR 2000/01 GLOBAL EXPORTS PROJECTED AT 25.2 MILLION TONS The first forecast for market year 2000/01 pegs global rice exports at 25.2 million tons (milled basis), up more than 10 percent from a year earlier. The forecast includes intra-EU trade and is an aggregate of local marketing years. Nearly all major importing countries are expected to increase trade in 2000/01 and ample supplies are expected in virtually all exporting countries. Total rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at 22 million tons, down 300,000 from last month's projection. Trade for year 2000 is 12 percent below 1999 and 19 percent smaller than the 1998 record. On the export side, Vietnam's exports were lowered 400,000 tons to 3.6 million based on the pace of shipments to date and weaker global trade. U.S. calendar year exports were lowered 150,000 tons to 2.85 based on the pace of shipments since January and smaller global trade. India's exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 1.1 million on weaker Bangladesh imports and smaller global demand. China's exports were lowered 100,00 tons to 2.6 million based on the pace to date and weaker global demand. In contrast, Thailand's 2000 exports were raised 300,000 tons to 5.8 million based on a strong pace to date and large exportable supplies. Burma's exports were raised 100,000 tons to 150,000 based on a larger crop and recent sales. Finally, Uruguay's exports were raised 50,000 tons to 650,000 based on a larger crop and recent sales outside the Western Hemisphere. On the import side, China accounts for almost all of the month-to- month reduction in global rice imports. China's 2000 imports were lowered 200,000 tons to 200,000 to more nearly match 1999 imports For calendar year 1999, estimated global trade was raised slightly to 25.1 million tons based on final export data. India's exports were raised 154,000 tons to almost 2.6 million and Pakistan's exports were lowered 13,000 tons to 1.84 million. ---------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on May 16, 2000 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on June 12, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order printed copies of the 1999 Rice Yearbook, call 1-800-999- 6779. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. PLEASE NOTE Recent data indicate that very few people are obtaining reports and data from the Autofax system. However, maintaining this system is costly to us. As a result, we are planning to phase out Autofax access to the Rice Outlook as of July, 2000. Starting in July, we plan to only provide access to this report through the Internet. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It will be available in ASCII on the same schedule through the Internet as through the autofax (e.g., at approximately 4:30 EST on the day of release) and in PDF a day later. If you have questions or concerns about this planned change, please contact Joy Harwood at 202-694-5202. We want to know who our customers are and how we can best serve you! TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.581 3.395 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.562 3.370 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,908 5,935 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 39.5 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 210.5 200.0 Imports 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 Total supply 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 243.3 250.5 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 98.3 102.1 98.8 100.5 114.7 112.6 115.5 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 Total Domestic use 102.2 105.6 102.7 104.6 119.1 116.8 119.6 Exports 98.1 82.2 77.2 86.9 85.3 87.0 87.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 23.0 23.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 71.5 64.5 60.8 59.6 64.0 64.0 Total use 200.2 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.4 203.8 206.6 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 39.5 43.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.8 19.4 21.3 $/cwt Average farm 6.05 4.75 price 6/ to to 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.15 5.75 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.3 69.3 69.5 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual included unreported losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 6.88 10,503 9.42 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 5.82 11,714 8.93 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 5.82 1/ 12,960 1/ 8.49 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 8.21 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 8.25 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.26 9,430 9.58 9,290 | Average 2/ | 6.23 12,960 8.89 11,206 9.70 11,093 | Total 3/ |6.05-6.15 4/ 116,636 134,468 133,116 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. 1/ Midmonth estimate. 2/ Prices market year weighted average; 1999/00 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/00 is August to current month only. 4/ Preliminary. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt August | 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 2/ 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3/| 4.69 4.38 4.38 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan rate or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly prices. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/00 | 1998/99 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 5/04/00 | 5/04/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 357 | 310 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 18 | 20 20 17 16 19 Turkey 188 | 84 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 57 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 371 | 323 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 412 | 175 203 183 315 344 Jordan 21 | 41 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 118 | 26 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 181 | 83 106 96 168 130 | AFRICA 175 | 135 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 20 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 60 | 51 61 64 33 48 South Africa 83 | 68 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,114 | 1,578 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 4 | 555 555 28 1 1 Canada 95 | 124 122 107 109 107 Costa Rica 84 | 41 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 36 | 61 61 93 19 3 Guatemala 40 | 26 29 25 32 31 Haiti 119 | 140 164 100 86 121 Honduras 83 | 44 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 24 | 15 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 14 | 13 11 16 17 22 Mexico 453 | 317 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 77 | 45 61 35 68 29 Panama 9 | 6 8 88 0 0 Peru 19 | 101 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 39 | 33 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 23 23 21 21 27 | TOTAL 2,692 | 2,626 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,710 3/| 2,680 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 4/ | 229 406 459 314 ============================================================================== N/A=Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports in product-weight. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Difference between Census and Export Sales. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Thai,long grain 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------- ----------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% Market grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled Grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric tons 8/ 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 N/A 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 N/A 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 205 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 185 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 195 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 195 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 157 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 251 247 225 191 156 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 149 175 May 2000 257 441 403 209 220 188 165 146 175 1999/00 9/ 291 458 397 236 246 215 189 165 208 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2,4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. N/A = Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 2.751 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 2.738 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 5,629 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 31.5 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 154.1 138.2 Imports 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 9.8 Total supply 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.7 177.7 179.5 Domestic use 3/ 60.3 67.7 62.3 60.5 79.9 77.7 80.0 Exports 80.8 64.8 56.6 71.6 70.7 68.5 68.0 Total use 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.6 146.2 148.0 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 31.5 31.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.3 21.6 21.3 --continued Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 0.830 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 0.824 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,835 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.8 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 56.3 61.8 Imports 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.2 Total supply 4/ 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 64.3 69.8 Domestic use 3/ 41.9 37.9 40.4 44.1 39.2 39.1 39.6 Exports 17.3 17.4 20.6 15.4 14.6 18.5 19.0 Total use 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.9 57.6 58.6 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.8 11.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.7 11.8 19.1 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. 4/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE