RICE OUTLOOK June 12, 2000 May 2000, ERS-RCS-0600 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o U.S. rice exports for both 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 were raised 1 million cwt to 88 million (rough basis). For both years rough rice exports were raised 2 million cwt to 25 million and milled rice exports lowered 1 million to 63 million. o U.S. ending stocks for 1999/2000 were lowered 1 million cwt to 38.5 million, still 74 percent higher than a year earlier. o U.S. ending stocks for 2000/2001 were lowered 2 million cwt to 41.9 million cwt, down 2 million cwt from last month but up almost 9 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. o The 1999/2000 season-average farm price was raised 5 cents on both the high and low ends to $6.10 to $6.20 per cwt. o Global rice production in 1999/2000 was raised slightly to a record 402.6 million tons, with Vietnam accounting for all of the increase. Australia's crop was lowered slightly. o Calendar year 2000 rice trade was raised 200,000 tons to more than 22.2 million tons. Export projections were raised for Thailand and China, but lowered for Vietnam. o Global ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 62.2 million tons, down slightly from last month but still the largest on record. U.S. 1999/2000 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED 1 MILLION CWT TO 88 MILLION Total use for 1999/2000 was raised 1 million cwt to 204.8 million, up fractionally from a year earlier. A 1-million cwt increase in exports to 88 million was responsible for all of the upward revision. Rough rice exports were raised 2 million cwt to 25 million based on a strong pace to date, especially to Mexico. The increase was partially offset by a 1-million cwt reduction in milled exports to 63 million. Greater exports were responsible for a 1-million cwt reduction in ending stocks to 38.5 million, still up 74 percent from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio was reduced to 18.8 percent from 19.4. Both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are the largest since 1992/93. The increase in exports was distributed evenly between long grain and combined medium/short grain. Long grain exports were increased 500,000 cwt to 69 million. This raised total long grain use to 146.7 million cwt and reduced ending stocks to 31 million cwt. The stocks-to-use ratio for long grain was lowered slightly this month to 21.1 percent, still more than double a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain exports were raised 500,000 cwt to 19 million based on the pace of sales and shipments to date. This boosted total use to 58.1 million cwt. Ending stocks were lowered 500,000 cwt to 6.3 million cwt, down 500,000 from a year earlier and the lowest since supply and use were first reported by type in 1982/83. The stocks-to-use ratio for combined medium/short grain was lowered a percentage point to 10.8 percent. Through June 1, U.S. Export Sales reported combined exports and outstanding sales of all rice at just over 2.82 million tons (product-weight), 3 percent greater than a year earlier. Exports were reported at 2.64 million tons, up 2.4 percent from a year earlier. Shipments to the EU, Turkey, Japan, Mexico, and Central America are all ahead of a year earlier. In the rough rice export market, combined shipments and outstanding sales were reported at almost 23.9 million cwt, just 6 percent behind a year earlier. In 1999/2000, greater rough rice exports to Mexico, Central America, and Turkey have almost made up for the absence of Brazil from the U.S. rough rice market. Brazil imported more than 540,000 tons of U.S. rough rice in 1998/99. RECORD U.S. SUPPLIES PROJECTED FOR 2000/2001 Total U.S. supplies for 2000/01 are projected at a record 249.5 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from last month but nearly 3 percent larger than a year earlier. The reduction is due to a 1- million cwt decrease in beginning stocks to 38.5 million, 74 percent larger than a year earlier and the primary factor behind the year-to-year increase in supply. The 2000/01 crop remains projected at 200 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year earlier's record. Imports remain projected at 11 million cwt, up 250,000 from a year earlier. On June 30, USDA will publish updated planting estimates based on surveys of farmers' actual plantings. Total use for 2000/01 was raised 1 million cwt to 207.6 million, more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier's revised level. The revision is the result of a 1-million cwt increase (all long grain) in exports to 88 million, unchanged from 1999/2000's revised level. Rough rice exports for 2000/01 were raised 2 million cwt to 25 million based on expectations of continued strong rough exports to Mexico, Central America, and Turkey. Milled exports, by contrast, were reduced 1 million cwt to 63 million based on expectations of very strong competition in international markets. Ending stocks for 2000/01 were reduced 2 million cwt to 41.9 million. However, stocks are still up nearly 9 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 20.2 percent, down about 1 percentage point from last month but up from a year earlier's 18.8 percent. Planting is virtually complete in all of the major rice growing states. As of June 4, 94 percent of the 2000/01 crop had emerged, ahead of the 5-year average. Virtually all of the crop has emerged in Texas and Louisiana. In Mississippi, the crop is 91 percent emerged, below the State's 5-year average of 98 percent, a result of very wet conditions at planting. The Arkansas crop is 92 percent emerged, slightly behind its 5-year average. The California crop is 95 percent emerged, about the same as last year but well ahead of its 5-year average of 67 percent. MEDIUM/SHORT GRAIN SUPPLIES EXPECTED TO RISE 8 PERCENT IN 2000/01 Combined medium/short grain supplies for 2000/01 are projected at 69.3 million cwt, down 500,000 from last month but up almost 8 percent from a year earlier. Beginning stocks are projected at 6.3 million cwt, down 500,000 from last month's projection. Production remains projected at 61.8 million cwt, up 10 percent from a year earlier, primarily due to larger plantings in California and the South. Imports remain projected at 1.2 million cwt, unchanged from 1999/2000. Total medium/short grain use remains projected at 58.6 million cwt, up slightly from a year earlier. Ending stocks for 2000/01 were lowered 500,000 cwt to 10.7 million, still up 70 percent from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered almost a full percentage point to 18.2 percent, well above a year earlier's 10.8 percent. Total long grain supplies are projected at a record 179 million cwt, down 500,000 from last month but up slightly from a year earlier. The month-to-month reduction stems from a decrease in beginning stocks, which were lowered 500,000 cwt to 31 million cwt. The long grain crop remains projected at 138.2 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier's record. Long grain imports in 2000/01 remain projected at 9.8 million cwt, up 250,000 from a year earlier. Total long grain use (including residual) was raised 1 million cwt to 149 million, up almost 2-percent from a year earlier but slightly below the 1998/99 record. This month-to-month increase is due to a 1-million cwt increase in exports to 69 million cwt. Ending stocks were reduced 1.5 million cwt to 30 million, down 1 million cwt from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 20.2 percent, down from 21.3 percent last month. U.S. SEASON AVERAGE PRICE FOR 1999/2000 RAISED TO $6.10 to $6.20 PER CWT The 1999/2000 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $6.10 to $6.20 per cwt, up 5 cents on both the high and low ends from last month's projection. The revision is based on monthly prices and marketings through mid-May. The 2000/01 SAFP remains projected at $4.75 to $5.75 per cwt, the lowest since 1986/87. Reported average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have risen slightly since March. Last month, USDA estimated May's midmonth price at $5.91 per cwt and raised April's to $5.86 from a preliminary $5.82. These prices are up slightly from March but are still about $2.50 below a year earlier. Through mid-May, monthly cash prices weighted by marketings averaged $6.22 per cwt, indicating prices will need to drop slightly during the remainder of the market year to achieve the projected SAFP. Long grain cash prices for rough rice are currently quoted at about $5.30 per cwt in the Delta, up 30 to 40 cents from a month earlier. The higher prices are largely due to a rise in futures prices, some farmer holdings of rice, and uncertainty regarding the 2000/01 U.S. crop. Except for the Delta, there is little selling in the South. There has been virtually no marketing of southern medium grain rice since mid-May. Quotes for California medium grain rice remain at $8.23 per cwt. But marketings are scarce as the bulk of the California crop has already been marketed. THAI EXPORT PRICES FOR TOP GRADES STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY Thai export prices for top grades of milled white rice have strengthened slightly since mid-May, primarily due to government purchases for Iranian sales and some weather problems hampering shipments to mills. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $212 per ton for the week ending June 5, up from $209 in mid-May. Prices for its premium jasmine or fragrant rice have strengthened since late April and are currently quoted at $494 per ton, up from $476 a month earlier. Prices had ranged from $444 to $453 from January 2000 through mid-April. In contrast, prices for medium and low quality grades of regular milled white continue to decline in the face of few new sales. Prices for Thai 35 percent brokens were reported at $161 per ton in early June, down from $166 a month earlier and $173 in April. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have slipped slightly since mid-May, a result of large supplies from Vietnam's main winter-spring crop and weaker global trade. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $170 per ton in early June, down from $175 a month earlier. The government of Vietnam is pursuing policies to support farm and milled rice prices. Price quotes for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice have steadily dropped since mid-April. Quotes for high quality southern long grain (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) were reported at $248 per ton in early June, down from $254 in mid-May. Prices had remained at $276 per ton from late February through early April. Prices are down more than $80 per ton from the start of the 1999/2000 season. In the Delta, milled long grain prices are quoted at $243 per ton, down $11 from mid- May. These are the lowest prices for U.S. long grain milled rice since September 1987. Prices for U.S. parboiled milled rice were quoted at $386 per ton for the week ending June 5, down $11 from mid-May and $22 below a month earlier. Quotes for U.S. 5-percent brokens parboiled rice had remained at $408 per ton since early January. In contrast to prices for regular milled rice in 1999/2000, price quotes for U.S. parboiled rice did not drop until May, due to strong demand and limited supplies. However, prices remain below the 1998/99 average of $418. The difference between Thai and U.S. rice prices has dropped since mid-May as U.S. prices have declined and Thai prices have risen slightly. For the week ending June 5, the difference was $36 per ton, down from $42 in mid-May and $50 a month earlier. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have remained at $441 per ton since mid-December. Prices were at near-record levels throughout 1998/99, but began to drop with the start of the 1999 harvest in October. Nearly all export sales of the 1999/2000 California medium grain crop have already occurred. VIETNAM'S 1999/2000 CROP RAISED TO RECORD 20.5 MILLION TONS Global rice production for 1999/2000 was raised fractionally to more than 402.6 million tons (milled basis), a record and up 2 percent from a year earlier. Total consumption was revised up fractionally to 400 million tons, nearly 3 percent above a year earlier and the largest to date. With production exceeding consumption, ending stocks are forecast to rise more than 5 percent to a record 62.2 million tons, down fractionally from last month's projection. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.5 percent, down slightly from last month but marginally above a year earlier. Vietnam accounts for all of the month-to-month upward revision in 1999/2000 production. Vietnam's crop was raised 200,000 tons to a record 20.5 million due to slightly higher plantings. In contrast, Australia's crop was lowered 25,000 tons to 775,000 due to a lower yield. Plantings were actually raised slightly. For 2000/01, world rice production remains projected at 400.3 million tons (milled basis), down more than 2.3 million from this year's revised record. Total foreign production remains projected at 394 million tons, down 2 million from 1999/2000. The largest rice producing countries are all expected to produce record or near-record crops in 2000/01. Bumper crops are projected for the major exporting countries as well. The projections assume normal weather worldwide. USDA will report country specific projections for 2000/01 in July. Total consumption in 2000/01 is projected at a record 403 million tons, up 3 million from 1999/2000. With consumption exceeding production, ending stocks are forecast to drop more than 4 percent to 59.5 million tons, slightly below last month's projection. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 14.8 percent, fractionally below last month and down from 15.5 a year earlier EXPORT PROJECTIONS FOR 2000 RAISED FOR THAILAND AND CHINA Total rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at more than 22.2 million tons, up 200,000 from last month's projection. However, trade for 2000 is more than 11 percent below 1999 and more than 18 percent smaller than the 1998 record. On the export side, Thailand's and China's exports were each raised 200,000 tons to 6 million and 2.8 million. Both revisions were based on a strong pace to date. In contrast, Vietnam's exports were lowered 200,00 tons to 3.4 million based on shipments to date and global 2000 import projections. On the import side, imports by the Philippines were raised 300,000 tons to 800,000 based on internal distribution problems, announced U.S. food aid, and purchases to date. Market year 2000/01 global rice exports remain projected at 25.2 million tons (milled basis), up more than 9 percent from a year earlier. The forecast includes intra-EU trade and is an aggregate of local marketing years. Nearly all major importing countries are expected to increase trade in 2000/01 and ample supplies are expected in virtually all exporting countries. ------------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 1999/2000 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on June 13, 2000 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on July 13, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order printed copies of the 1999 Rice Yearbook, call 1-800-999- 6779. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. PLEASE NOTE Recent data indicate that very few people are obtaining reports and data from the Autofax system. However, maintaining this system is costly to us. As a result, we are planning to phase out Autofax access to the Rice Outlook as of July 2000. Starting in July, we plan to only provide access to this report through the Internet. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It will be available in ASCII on the same schedule through the Internet as through the autofax (e.g., at approximately 4:30 EST on the day of release) and in PDF a day later. If you have questions or concerns about this planned change, please contact Joy Harwood at 202-694-5202. We want to know who our customers are and how we can best serve you! TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.581 3.395 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.562 3.370 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,908 5,935 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 38.5 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 210.5 200.0 Imports 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 Total supply 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 243.3 249.5 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 98.3 102.1 98.8 100.5 114.7 112.6 115.5 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 Total Domestic use 102.2 105.6 102.7 104.6 119.1 116.8 119.6 Exports 98.1 82.2 77.2 86.9 85.3 88.0 88.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.0 25.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 71.5 64.5 60.8 59.6 63.0 63.0 Total use 200.2 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.4 204.8 207.6 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 38.5 41.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.8 18.8 20.2 $/cwt Average farm 6.10 4.75 price 6/ to to 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.20 5.75 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.3 69.3 69.5 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average prices received. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 6.88 10,503 9.42 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 5.82 11,714 8.93 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 5.86 8,860 8.49 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 5.91 1/ 12,504 1/ 8.21 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 8.25 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.26 9,430 9.58 9,290 | Average 2/ | 6.22 12,504 8.89 11,206 9.70 11,093 | Total 3/ |6.10-6.20 4/ 125,040 134,468 133,116 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. 1/ Midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 1999/00 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/00 is August to current month only. 4/ Preliminary. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 1/ ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt August | 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 2/ 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July | 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 3/| 4.63 4.29 4.30 2/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or prevailing world market price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly prices. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/00 | 1998/99 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 6/01/00 | 6/01/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 359 | 337 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 20 | 21 20 17 16 19 Turkey 188 | 99 100 115 202 187 Former Soviet Union 57 | 0 43 2 23 37 Japan 371 | 324 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 415 | 189 203 183 315 344 Jordan 21 | 41 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 118 | 26 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 183 | 95 106 96 168 130 | AFRICA 177 | 141 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 20 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 63 | 57 61 64 33 48 South Africa 83 | 68 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,236 | 1,626 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 4 | 555 555 28 1 1 Canada 99 | 128 122 107 109 107 Colombia 1 | 11 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 84 | 41 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 36 | 61 61 93 19 3 Ecuador 0 | 0 0 148 0 0 Guatemala 44 | 26 29 25 32 31 Haiti 145 | 149 164 100 86 121 Honduras 99 | 48 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 24 | 15 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 14 | 13 11 16 17 22 Mexico 519 | 342 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 78 | 49 61 35 68 29 Panama 9 | 6 8 88 0 0 Peru 19 | 101 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 42 | 32 30 49 22 30 | TOTAL 2,825 | 2,744 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,770 3/| 2,680 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference | 352 4/ 230 406 459 313 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports product-weight basis. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total(product-weight)is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1995/96 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Houston Calif. Houston boiled brokens Special $ per metric ton 8/ 1991/92 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 N/A 1992/93 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 N/A 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 205 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 185 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 195 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 195 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 157 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 251 247 225 191 156 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 9/ 248 441 386 212 218 184 161 140 170 1999/00 9/ 281 444 397 231 242 208 182 155 199 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2,4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1,4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quotes from industry sources. 7/100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. N/A = Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 2.751 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 2.738 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 5,629 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 31.0 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 154.1 138.2 Imports 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 9.8 Total supply 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.7 177.7 179.0 Domestic use 4/ 60.3 67.7 62.3 60.5 79.9 77.7 80.0 Exports 80.8 64.8 56.6 71.6 70.7 69.0 69.0 Total use 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.6 146.7 149.0 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 31.0 30.0 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.3 21.1 20.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --continued Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/--contined ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 0.830 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 0.824 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,835 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.3 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 56.3 61.8 Imports 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 64.3 69.3 Domestic use 4/ 41.9 37.9 40.4 44.1 39.2 39.1 39.6 Exports 17.3 17.4 20.6 15.4 14.6 19.0 19.0 Total use 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.9 58.1 58.6 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.3 10.7 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.7 10.8 18.2 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain rice may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE