RICE OUTLOOK July 13, 2000 July 2000, ERS-RCS-0700 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 2000/01 U.S. rice crop is projected at 193.5 million cwt, down 6.5 million from last month's forecast, due to a 4- percent reduction in estimated plantings. o U.S. ending stocks for 2000/01are projected at 34.8 million cwt, down 17 percent from last month's projection and nearly 8 percent below a year earlier. o The 2000/01 season-average farm price was raised 50 cents on both the high and low ends to $5.25-$6.25 per cwt based on the smaller supplies. o U.S. 1999/2000 rice exports were raised 1 million cwt to 89 million, the largest since 1994/95. The increase was due to greater rough rice exports. o Global rice production for is projected at 399 million tons for 2000/01, fractionally below last month and almost 1 percent below a year earlier. China accounts for the bulk of annual decline. o Global rice production for 1999/2000 is projected at 402.8 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month as a reduction in China's crop was more than offset by increases for India, Vietnam, and the Philippines. o Global trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 24.4 million tons, up 9 percent from this year. Indonesia, Iran, and the Philippines account for most of the import expansion. o Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 60.8 million tons, up 2 percent from a month earlier but almost 4 percent below the 1999/2000 record. U.S. 2000/01 RICE CROP PROJECTED AT 193.5 MILLION CWT The 2000/01 U.S. rice crop is projected at 193.5 million cwt, down 6.5 million from last month's projection-a result of smaller plantings-and 8 percent below a year earlier's record. USDA's June Acreage reported plantings at 3.27 million acres, down 125,000 from the March intentions. In contrast, average yield was raised 28 pounds per acre to 5,963 based on shifts in planted area by State and grain type. USDA will report its first survey- based yield estimate in August. Long grain accounted for the bulk of the reduction in the 2000 plantings estimate. Long grain plantings were lowered 115,000 acres to 2.42 million, with Arkansas accounting for most of the reduction. Medium grain plantings were raised fractionally from the March Prospective Plantings, with increases in the South barely exceeding declines in California. Plantings of short grain rice-grown mostly in California--were lowered 11,000 acres to 33,000. By State, Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the downward revision in estimated plantings, with total rice area reported 140,000 acres below March intentions. Louisiana's plantings were lowered 30,000 acres-mostly long grain-to 540,000. California plantings were reduced 15,000 acres to 550,000, with short grain accounting for most of the reduction. U.S. rice plantings are down almost 9 percent from 1999. Planting of long grain rice, grown mostly in the South, is reported at 2.42 million acres, a 12-percent drop. Medium grain plantings are reported at 817,000 acres, up more than 6 percent from 1999 with California-where most of the medium grain crop is grown-accounting for most of the increase. Short grain acreage is reported at 33,000 acres, a 47-percent decline. Much of this crop is exported to Japan. Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the annual reduction in rice area, with plantings reported at 1.45 million acres, down 200,000. Low prices and drought are behind an 80,000-acre drop in Louisiana's plantings to 550,000, the smallest since 1996. Mississippi's plantings are reported at 280,000 acres, down 45,000 from the 1999 near-record. In contrast, plantings are reported up slightly this year in California and Missouri and unchanged in Texas. Final planting estimates for 2000 will be reported in January. TOTAL SUPPLY IN 2000/01 PROJECTED FRACTIONALLY BELOW RECORD Total supply for 2000/01 is projected at 242.2 million cwt, down 7.3 million from last month's projection but only fractionally below a year earlier's record. The monthly reduction is due to a 6.5-million cwt drop in production and a 2-percent reduction in beginning stocks to 37.7 million cwt. Imports remain projected at a record 11 million cwt. Total use is projected at a record 207.4 million cwt, down 200,000 from last month, due to lower seed use. Total exports remain projected at 88 million cwt, 1 million lower than a year earlier's revised level. Rough rice exports were raised 1 million cwt to 26 million based on expectations of continued strong exports to Mexico, Central America, and Turkey. By contrast, expectations of strong international competition for milled rice led to a 1-million cwt reduction in exports to 62 million. Both projections are slightly below a year earlier. Ending stocks for 2000/01 were reduced 7.1 million cwt to 34.8 million, almost 8 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to- use ratio was reduced almost 3.5 percentage points to 16.8 percent, down from a year earlier's revised 18.3 percent. As of July 9, 21 percent of the crop had headed, with some harvesting reported on the Gulf Coast. In Texas, 74 percent of the crop had headed, 10 percent ahead of a year earlier and well ahead of the 5 year average of 50 percent. In Louisiana, 53 percent of the crop had headed, below last year's 67 percent but ahead of its 5-year average. In Arkansas, 10 percent of the crop had headed, above its 5-year average of 4 percent. In Mississippi, just 6 percent of the crop had headed, well below its 5-year average of 16 percent. Rice has not yet headed in California. LONG GRAIN ENDING STOCKS PROJECTION LOWERED TO 24.4 MILLION CWT Long grain supplies for 2000/01 are projected at 172.3 million cwt, down 6.7 million cwt from last month and 3 percent below a year earlier. The monthly reduction stems mainly from a downward revision of 6.2 million cwt in the projected crop to 132 million, 14 percent below a year earlier's record. Beginning stocks were lowered slightly to 30.5 million cwt. Imports remain projected at 9.8 million cwt. Long grain exports for 2000/01 were lowered 1 million cwt to 68 million, slightly below a year earlier. Weaker exports in 2000/01 are based on expectations of very strong competition in international markets. Ending stocks were lowered 5.6 million cwt to 24.4 million, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 16.5 percent, nearly 4 percentage points below last month and 1999/2000. Combined medium/short grain supplies were lowered about 1 percent this month to 68.7 million cwt, almost 7 percent above a year earlier. The downward revision results from a 310,000-cwt reduction in crop size to 61.5 million. Beginning stocks were lowered 5 percent to 6 million cwt, and imports remain unchanged at 1.2 million cwt. Combined medium/short grain use was raised 900,000 cwt to 59.5 million, up almost 2 percent from a year earlier's revised level. The revision results from a 1-million cwt increase in exports to 20 million. Ending stocks are projected at almost 9.2 million cwt, down more than 14 percent from a month earlier but more than 50 percent larger than 1999/2000. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered 2.9 percentage points to 15.4 percent, well above a year earlier's 10.2 percent. U.S. EXPORT FORECAST FOR 1999/2000 RAISED 1 MILLION CWT TO 89 MILLION There were no revisions to the 1999/2000 supply. Total use was raised 800,000 cwt to 205.6 million, up slightly from a year earlier. A 1-million cwt increase in exports was partially offset by a reduction in seed use. Rough rice exports were raised 1.5 million cwt to a record 26.5 million based on a strong pace of shipments to date, especially to Mexico, Central America, and Turkey. By contrast, milled exports were reduced 500,000 cwt to 62.5 million based on the pace to date. Ending stocks were lowered 2 percent to 37.7 million cwt, 70 percent larger than 1998/99. The stocks-to-use ratio was reduced slightly 18.3 percent, well above a year earlier's 10.8 percent. Long grain exports were raised 500,000 cwt to 69.5 million, almost 2 percent above a year earlier. This lowered ending stocks to 30.5 million, still twice as large as a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain exports were raised 500,000 tons to 19.5 million based on the pace of shipments to date. This reduced ending stocks to 6 million cwt, 800,000 below a year earlier and the lowest since supply and use were first reported by grain type in 1982. Through June 29, U.S. Export Sales reported combined exports and outstanding sales of all rice at 3.02 million tons (product- weight basis), up by more than 3 percent from a year earlier. Combined shipments and outstanding sales of rough rice were reported at 26.6 million cwt. SEASON AVERAGE FARM PRICE RAISED FOR 2000/01 The 2000/01 season average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.25 to $6.25, up 50 cents on both the high and low ends from last month. This revision is based primarily on lower supplies. The 1999/00 SAFP remains projected at $6.10 to $6.20 per cwt, well below a year earlier's $8.89. Reported average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have declined since the start of the marketing year. Last month, USDA estimated June's midmonth price at $5.61 per cwt and lowered May's to $5.56 from a preliminary estimate of $5.91. These are the lowest monthly cash prices since September 1993. Through mid- June, monthly cash prices weighted by marketings averaged $6.14 per cwt. There is little selling of rough rice currently taking place. In June, long grain cash prices for rough rice were reported at $5.30 per cwt in the Delta, up 25 to 30 cents from May but down nearly $2 from a year earlier. Price quotes in early July were slightly higher on limited supplies of high-quality long grain rice. There have been few sales of southern medium grain since May. Prices for California medium grain rice were quoted at $8.23 per cwt in late June. The bulk of the California crop has been marketed. THAI EXPORT PRICES DROP ON ABSENCE OF NEW SALES Thai export prices for top and medium grades of regular milled white rice have dropped since mid-June, primarily due to an absence of new sales. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $200 per ton for the week ending July 8, down 6 percent from mid-June. In contrast, prices for its premium jasmine rice have strengthened over the past month and are currently quoted at $550 per ton, up from $494 in early June. Prices for lower quality grades of regular milled white rice have remained nearly steady since early June. In contrast to weaker Thai prices, quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have risen since early June, a result of very large vessel loadings for previous sales. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $185 per ton for the week ending July 11, up $15 from a month earlier. The spread between Thai and Vietnamese prices has narrowed substantially in the past month and is currently only a few dollars per ton. Price quotes for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice have remained steady since mid-May after dropping during the first 9 months of the market year. Quotes for high quality southern long grain (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) were reported at $248 per ton for the week ending July 10. Prices are down more than $80 per ton from the start of the 1999/2000 season. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice are the lowest since September 1987. The difference between Thai and U.S. rice prices has risen since early June as U.S. prices have remained steady and Thai prices have declined. For the week ending July 10, the difference was $48 per ton, up from $35 a month earlier. The difference is the largest difference since the first week of January. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have remained at $441 per ton since mid-December. GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION TO DROP NEARLY 1 PERCENT IN 2000/01 Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 399.2 million tons (milled basis), down fractionally from a month earlier but nearly 1 percent below a year earlier's record. Total consumption is projected at a record 401.5 million tons, down fractionally from a month earlier but up 1.6 million tons from 1999/2000. Ending stocks are forecast to drop nearly 4 percent to 60.8 million tons, 2 percent above last month's projection. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.1 percent, slightly above last month's forecast but down from 15.8 percent a year earlier China accounts for the bulk of the decline in global production in 2000/01. China's crop is projected at 137.2 million tons, down 1.7 million from a year earlier, a result of reduced plantings. Low prices and recent changes in policy that significantly reduce government support for low-quality early rice are behind the decline in rice plantings. Several major importers are projected to produce smaller crops in 2000/01. Iran's crop is projected at 1.2 million tons, a 350,000- ton drop from 1999/2000, due to smaller plantings and a lower yield. Iran is suffering from a severe drought. Bangladesh's crop is projected to drop 230,000 tons to 21.3 million on reduced plantings. In the Philippines, production is projected to drop nearly 200,000 tons to 7.6 million as plantings decline from a year earlier's record. Indonesia, the world's largest importer, is projected to produce 32.0 million tons of rice, fractionally below 1999/2000 due to smaller yields. In addition to China, other rice exporters are expected to produce smaller crops in 2000/01. Vietnam is projected to produce almost 20.8 million tons of rice in 2000/01, down 150,000 from a year earlier's record. While area is expected to rise, yields are forecast to drop from the 1999/2000 record. A slight reduction in plantings is behind a 200,000-ton reduction in Pakistan's crop to 4.9 million. Burma is projected to produce a slightly smaller crop in 2000/01. The Thai crop is projected to remain at nearly 15.9 million tons, a record. Outside Asia, the United States is expected to produce a 6.1- million ton crop, down more than 500,000 from a year earlier's record. Argentina's crop is projected to fall 50,000 tons to 550,000 on an 8-percent drop in plantings, a response to low prices. Egypt's crop is projected to drop fractionally to 3.5 million tons even as area remains record high. Uruguay's and Guyana's crops are projected to be unchanged from 1999/2000. In contrast, production is projected higher in a few countries. Brazil's crop is projected to rise 300,000 tons to 7.7 million on greater plantings and higher yields. India's crop is projected at a record 88.5 million tons, up 250,000 tons from a year earlier's revised level, a result of slightly greater plantings. Australia's crop is projected to rise 50,000 tons to 825,000 due to a higher yield. Cambodia's production is forecast at almost 2.5 million tons, up 50,000 from 1999/2000 and the largest in 30 years. Global rice production for 1999/2000 is projected at a record 402.8 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from last month as reductions were offset by increases. Total production is up more than 2 percent from a year earlier and nearly 3 million tons above total consumption, yielding a 5-percent increase in ending stocks to a record 63.1 million tons. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.8 percent, marginally above a year earlier. China's crop was lowered 2 million tons to 139 million based on government data reporting lower area and yield. Offsetting almost all of this reduction was a 1.75-million ton increase in India's crop to 88.25 million, a result of a higher yield. In addition, Vietnam's production was raised 400,000 tons to a record 20.9 million, driven by a record winter-spring crop. The Philippines' rice crop was raised slightly to almost 7.8 million tons due to higher area and yield. GLOBA0L RICE TRADE FOR 2001 PROJECTED AT 24.4 MILLION TONS The first projection for calendar year 2001 pegs global trade at 24.4 million tons, more than 9 percent above a year earlier. Imports are projected higher for several countries. Indonesia's imports are projected to rise 1 million tons to 3 million on rising consumption and stagnant production. Iran's imports are projected to rise 400,000 tons to a record 1.6 million due to a big drop in production. The Philippines are expected to import 1 million tons in 2001, up 200,000 from this year as rising consumption outstrips production. Bangladesh is expected to import 500,000 tons, up 100,000 from this year, a result of a smaller crop. Other countries expected to increase imports in 2001 include: Saudi Arabia, China, North Korea, Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Cuba, Iraq, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey, and the United States. Nearly all major Asian exporters are expected to increase trade in 2001. India's exports are projected to rise 700,000 tons to 1.8 million based on record supplies and larger imports by Bangladesh. Thailand's and Vietnam's exports were each raised 600,000 tons, to 6.6 million and 4 million, due to large supplies. China is projected to export 3 million tons, up 200,000 from this year. Pakistan is projected to export a record 2 million tons, up 150,000. Outside Asia, both Uruguay and Australia are projected to expand exports in 2001. In contrast, Argentina is projected to export 350,000 tons, a drop of 150,000 due to smaller supplies. Guyana's exports are projected to decline 25,000 tons to 275,000 on no growth in production and strong competition. The United States is projected to export 2.85 million tons and Burma 150,000, both unchanged from 2000. Global rice trade in calendar year 2000 was raised fractionally to 22.3 million tons, as reductions were more than offset by increases. On the import side, Afghanistan's imports were raised 75,000 tons to 125,000 based on the shipment pace to date and higher 1999 trade. Yemen's imports were raised 10,000 tons to 210,000 based on slightly higher 1999 imports. Smaller increases were made for Hong Kong, Honduras, Nepal, Kuwait, Yemen, and Oman. Nearly offsetting these increases was a 75,000-tons reduction in Malaysia's imports to 600,000 based on the pace of deliveries to date. There were no revisions to any major exporter. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on July 14, 2000 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on August 14, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order printed copies call 1-800-999-6779. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. Autofax access to the Rice Outlook has been phased out. Access to this report is provided only through the Internet. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It will be available in ASCII at approximately 4:30 Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.581 3.270 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.562 3.245 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,908 5,963 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 37.7 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 210.5 193.5 Imports 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 Total supply 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 243.3 242.2 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 98.3 102.1 98.8 100.5 114.7 112.6 115.5 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9 Total Domestic use 102.2 105.6 102.7 104.6 119.1 116.6 119.4 Exports 98.1 82.2 77.2 86.9 85.3 89.0 88.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 26.5 26.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 71.5 64.5 60.8 59.6 62.5 62.0 Total use 200.2 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.4 205.6 207.4 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 37.7 34.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.8 18.3 16.8 $/cwt Average 6.10- 5.25- price 6/ 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.20 6.25 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.3 69.3 69.5 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/Projected. 4/Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings,rough equivalent ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,153 9.94 9,177 September | 6.88 10,503 9.42 9,502 9.92 12,204 October | 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,379 10.00 11,925 November | 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,882 9.82 11,191 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,728 9.77 12,540 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,705 9.57 13,416 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 13,033 9.75 10,679 March | 5.82 11,714 8.93 12,792 9.67 10,474 April | 5.86 8,860 8.49 9,428 9.40 10,802 May | 5.56 9,966 8.21 9,493 9.38 10,357 June | 5.61 1/ 12,250 1/ 8.25 9,943 9.58 11,061 July | 8.26 9,430 9.58 9,290 | Average 2/ | 6.14 12,250 8.89 11,206 9.70 11,093 | Total 3/ |6.10-6.20 4/ 134,752 134,468 133,116 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 1999/2000 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/2000 is August to current month only. 4/ Preliminary. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1997/98 to 1999/00 ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt | August | 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 8.45 7.24 7.12 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 7.89 7.39 7.24 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 8.00 7.59 7.44 November | 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 8.20 7.63 7.48 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 8.34 7.71 7.56 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 8.76 7.80 7.67 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 9.41 7.88 7.72 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 9.50 7.86 7.70 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 9.80 7.91 7.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 8.79 7.81 7.63 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 9.19 7.91 7.74 July 1/ | 4.09 3.46 3.59 6.56 6.69 6.75 9.22 7.92 7.75 | Average 2/| 4.59 4.22 4.24 1/ 7.45 7.14 7.08 8.80 7.72 7.57 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 1999/00 | 1998/99 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 6/29/00 | 6/29/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 402 | 354 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 20 | 21 20 17 16 19 Turkey 223 | 105 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 1 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 57 | 48 43 2 23 37 Japan 372 | 324 324 250 212 192 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 423 | 201 203 183 315 344 Jordan 21 | 41 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 118 | 26 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 188 | 105 106 96 168 130 | AFRICA 188 | 168 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 26 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 66 | 60 61 64 33 48 South Africa 85 | 93 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,336 | 1,696 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 5 | 555 555 28 1 1 Canada 104 | 137 122 107 109 107 Colombia 1 | 11 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 84 | 41 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 36 | 61 61 93 19 3 Guatemala 45 | 31 29 25 32 31 Haiti 142 | 160 164 100 86 121 Honduras 111 | 49 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 229 | 15 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 14 | 13 11 16 17 22 Mexico 573 | 369 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 85 | 61 61 35 68 29 Panama 14 | 7 8 88 0 0 Peru 19 | 104 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 52 | 31 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 23 23 21 21 27 TOTAL 3,021 | 2,924 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,810 3/ | 2,680 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference | 352 4/ 230 406 459 313 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. "U.S. Export Sales" reports product-weight. 1/Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight) is the official total. "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and Export Sales 1995/96 to 1997/98. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 205 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 185 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 195 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 195 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 157 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 251 247 225 191 156 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 248 441 386 201 216 179 162 141 183 1999/00 9 284 455 395 230 241 209 185 160 202 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2,4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. NA = Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 2.751 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 2.738 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 5,629 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 30.5 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 154.1 132.0 Imports 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 9.8 Total supply 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.7 177.7 172.3 Domestic use 4/ 60.3 67.7 62.3 60.5 79.9 77.7 79.9 Exports 80.8 64.8 56.6 71.6 70.7 69.5 68.0 Total use 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.6 147.2 147.9 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 30.5 24.4 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.3 20.7 16.5 --continued Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 0.830 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 0.824 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,835 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.0 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 56.3 61.5 Imports 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 64.3 68.7 Domestic use 4/ 41.9 37.9 40.4 44.1 39.2 38.9 39.5 Exports 17.3 17.4 20.6 15.4 14.6 19.5 20.0 Total use 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.9 58.4 59.5 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.0 9.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.7 10.2 15.4 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE