RICE OUTLOOK August 14, 2000 August 2000, ERS-RCS-0800 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: The U.S. 2000/01 rice crop is projected at 198.2 million cwt (rough basis), up 4.7 million from last month's forecast. The yield was raised 4 percent to a record 6,184 pounds. U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks were raised almost 14 percent to 39.5 million cwt, a result of the larger crop. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 19 percent. The 2000/01 season-average farm price was lowered 50 cents on both the high and low ends to $4.75-$5.75 per cwt based on the larger supplies. Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 398.1 million tons, slightly below last month. Crop projections were lowered for China, Brazil, North Korea, and Vietnam. Global trade for calendar year 2001 remains projected at 24.4 million tons, up 9 percent from this year. Indonesia and Iran account for the bulk of the expansion. Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 60.6 million tons, down fractionally from last month and almost 4 percent below the 1999/2000 record. U.S. 2000/01 RICE CROP PROJECTION RAISED TO 198.2 MILLION CWT The 2000/01 U.S. rice crop is projected at 198.2 million hundredweight (cwt) (rough basis), up 4.7 million cwt from last month's forecast but second only to the 1999/2000 record of 210.5 million. The month-to-month revision in total rice production was based on a 221-pound per acre increase in average yield to a record 6,184. The higher yield was partially offset by a 40,000-acre reduction in harvested area, all in Louisiana. This is USDA's first survey-based estimate of the 2000/01 rice crop. Yield forecasts will continue to be revised throughout the growing season. The 2000/01 crop is projected to be 6 percent below the 1999/2000 record. A 10 percent drop in harvested area to 3.2 million acres accounts for all of the year-to-year contraction. In contrast, average yield is projected almost 5 percent higher than a year earlier. Long grain rice, grown mostly in the South, is projected at 136.8 million cwt, down 11 percent from the year earlier's record. In contrast, medium grain rice is projected to rise more than 13 percent from 1999/2000 to 59 million cwt. The bulk of the medium grain crop is grown in California. Short grain rice, grown mostly in California, is projected to drop 44 percent to 2.4 million cwt. Most short grain rice is exported to Japan. Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are projected to produce smaller crops in 2000/01. The Arkansas crop is forecast at 87.8 million cwt, down 9.2 million from the year earlier's record, a result of smaller area. The yield is projected at 6,100 pounds, the second largest on record. Production in Louisiana is forecast at 24.3 million cwt, down 21 percent from 1999/00, a result of an almost 20-percent drop in harvested area to 495,000 acres and a lower yield. The Mississippi crop is forecast at 16.1 million cwt, down almost 12 percent from a year earlier, as an almost 14-percent drop in harvested area to 278,000 acres more than offsets a 3-percent increase in yield. In contrast. production is projected higher this year in California, Missouri and Texas, with record crops projected for California and Missouri. The California crop is projected at 43.3 million cwt, up more than 11 percent from the year earlier's weather-damaged crop. Harvested area is projected to rise more than 2 percent to 548,000 acres, and the yield is projected to be almost 9 percent above a year earlier. Production in Missouri is forecast at a record 10.6 million cwt, up about 7 percent from 1999/2000, primarily due to a record yield. The Texas crop is forecast at 16 million cwt, up more than 3 percent from a year earlier, a result of a record 6,200-pound per-acre yield. Area is flat. There were no month-to-month revisions in 2000/01 U.S. rice use. Total use remains projected at a record 207.4 million cwt, up 1.8 million from a year earlier. The increase is caused by an expansion in total domestic use (including residual) that more than offsets a slight reduction in exports. Total domestic use and residual is projected at 119.4 million cwt, about 2 percent larger than 1999/2000. Exports remain projected at 88 million cwt, down 1 million from a year earlier. The year-to-year drop in total exports is spread evenly between rough and milled rice. Rough rice exports are projected at 26 million cwt, down 500,000 cwt from a year earlier's record. Milled rice exports remain projected at 62 million cwt, down from 62.5 million in 1999/2000. Ending stocks were raised 4.7 million cwt to 39.5 million, a result of a larger crop. These are the largest ending stocks since 1986/87, fractionally exceeding 1992/93 ending stocks, and almost 5 percent larger than a year earlier. The increase in stocks raised the stocks-to-use ratio more than 2 percentage points to 19 percent, slightly larger than the 18.3 percent from a year earlier. Rice harvest is well underway in the Gulf Coast. As of August 6, the 2000/01 rice harvest was 50 percent complete in Louisiana and 30 percent complete in Texas, both well ahead of their 5-year averages. Nationally, the harvest was 11 percent complete, nearly double the 5- year average. The harvest had not begin in California or the Delta. As of August 6, 64 percent of the crop has headed, slightly ahead of the 5-year average. There were no revisions to the 1999/2000 U.S. supply and use this month. Total supply remains projected at 243.3 million cwt, a record to date and up 7 percent from a year earlier. Total use remains projected at 205.6 million cwt, also a record to date. U.S. exports remain projected at 89 million cwt, with rough rice exports still projected at 26.5 million cwt and milled forecast at 62.5 million. Ending stocks remain projected at 37.7 million cwt, up 71 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1992/93. The projected milling rate was lowered slightly to 69.25 percent based on milling data through March. LONG GRAIN CROP PROJECTION RAISED 4 PERCENT TO 136.8 MILLION CWT The 2000/01 U.S. long grain crop is projected at 136.8 million cwt, up 4.8 million from last month but more than 11 percent below the year earlier's record. Beginning stocks remain projected at 30.5 million cwt, more than double a year earlier. Total long grain supply is projected at 177.1 million cwt, up almost 3 percent from last month-a result of the larger crop-- but marginally below the 1999/2000 record. There were no month-to-month changes for 2000/01 long grain rice use. Total use remains projected at 147.9 million cwt, up 700,000 from 1999/2000. Total domestic use, including residual, is projected at 79.9 million cwt, up almost 3 percent from a year earlier. Long grain exports remain projected at 68 million cwt, down 1.5 million from a year earlier. Ending long grain stocks are projected at 29.2 million cwt, up 4.8 million from last month but more than 4 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 19.8 percent, up more than 3 percentage points from last month but down from a year earlier's 20.7 percent. The 2000/01 combined medium/short grain crop was reduced 100,000 cwt to 61.4 million, still 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Beginning stocks remain projected at 6 million cwt, the lowest since stocks were first maintained by grain type in 1982/83. Total medium/short grain supply was reduced marginally to 68.5 million cwt, almost 7 percent larger than 1999/2000. There were no revisions this month to 2000/01 combined medium/short grain use. Total use remains projected at 59.5 million cwt, up 1.1 million from a year earlier. Both domestic use (including residual) and exports are larger in 2000/01. Domestic use and residual remains projected at 39.5 million cwt, up 600,000 from a year earlier. Medium/short grain exports are projected at 20 million cwt, up 500,000 from 1999/2000. The fractional reduction in supply reduced ending stocks 2 percent to 9 million cwt. This lowered the stocks-to-use ratio slightly to 15.2 percent, well above the year earlier's 10.2 percent. 2000/01 SEASON AVERAGE FARM PRICE LOWERED TO $4.75 TO $5.75 PER CWT The 2000/01 season average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $4.75 to $5.75, down 50 cents on both the high and low ends from last month. This revision is based on weaker international prices and slightly larger U.S. supplies. The 1999/2000 SAFP is revised to $6.10 per cwt from last month's $6.10 to $6.20, well below the year earlier's $8.89. Reported average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have declined since the start of the marketing year. Last month, USDA estimated July's midmonth price at $5.57 per cwt and lowered June's to $5.59 from a preliminary $5.61 per cwt. These are the lowest monthly cash prices since September 1993. New crop sales are currently limited to the Gulf Coast. Some old crop rice is still being marketed in the Delta. In early August, new crop long grain cash prices for rough rice were reported at $5.40 to $5.45 in Texas and Southwest Louisiana. In the Delta, old crop long grain was quoted at $6 per cwt, up from June and early July due to limited supplies of high-quality long grain rice. There has been very little selling of southern medium grain since May. Almost all of the 1999 California crop has been marketed. Prices for California medium grain rice were quoted at $8.23 per cwt in late June. THAI EXPORT PRICES DROP ON ABSENCE OF NEW SALES Thai export prices for top and medium grades of regular milled white rice have dropped since mid-July, primarily due to an absence of new sales and some fall in the value of the baht. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $194 per ton for the week ending August 8, down $6 from a month earlier. Prices for its premium jasmine rice-which had been strengthening since spring-have dropped since late July and were quoted at $553 per ton, down from $570 in late July. In contrast, prices for lower quality grades of regular milled white rice have remained nearly steady since late May. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have remained steady since early July, largely supported by logistical problems caused by severe flooding in the Mekong River Delta. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $185 per ton for the week ending August 8, unchanged from a month earlier. The spread between Thai and Vietnamese prices has narrowed substantially since late spring and is currently only a few dollars per ton. Price quotes for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice have risen since late July after dropping during the first 10 months of the market year. Quotes for high quality southern long grain (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) have been reported at $254 per ton since late July. Prices were reported at $248 per ton from mid-May until late July. However, prices are still down $75 per ton from the start of the 1999/2000 season. The difference between Thai and U.S. rice prices has risen since late July, as U.S. prices have risen slightly while Thai prices have continued to decline. For the week ending August 8, the difference was $60 per ton, up from $48 a month earlier. The difference is the largest difference since late 1999. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) dropped in mid-July to $430 from $441 per ton. Prices weakened further in late July and are currently quoted at $419 per ton. GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION TO DROP MORE THAN 1 PERCENT IN 2000/01 Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 398.1 million tons (milled basis), down fractionally from a month earlier and more than 1 percent below a year earlier's record. Total consumption is projected at a record 401 million tons, also down fractionally from last month. Ending stocks are forecast to drop nearly 5 percent to 60.6 million tons, fractionally below last month's projection. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.1 percent, virtually unchanged from last month's forecast but down from 15.9 percent a year earlier. China accounts for the bulk of the downward revision in 2000/01 global production. China's crop is projected at 136.5 million tons, down 700,000 from a month earlier, a result of lower area. In addition, Brazil's crop was reduced 300,000 tons to 7.4 million based on a lower yield. North Korea's 2000/01 crop was reduced 200,000 tons to 1.4 million due to a smaller yield and a slight drop in plantings. Parts of North Korea have suffered from drought this year. Severe flooding in the Mekong River Delta is responsible for a 150,000-ton drop in Vietnam's crop to 20.6 million. Finally, Turkmenistan's crop was lowered 35,000 tons to 35,000 due to a weaker yield. The projection takes into account historical adjustments in Turkmenistan's rice production. In contrast, the U.S. 2000/01 crop was raised 150,000 tons to 6.25 million based on a higher yield. In addition, Indonesia's 2000/01 crop was raised 100,000 tons to 32.1 million based on expectations of a slightly higher yield. The 1999/2000 global rice crop was raised fractionally to a record 403.2 million tons. All revisions were based on government data. Brazil accounted for the bulk of the increase. Brazil's crop was raised 443,000 tons to more than 7.8 million, a result of higher yields. Uruguay's crop was raised 46,000 tons to 846,000 based on higher yields as well. In contrast, Argentina's 1999/2000 crop was lowered 28,000 tons to 572,000 due to a weaker yield. Finally, Turkmenistan's 1999/2000 crop was lowered 35,000 tons to 35,000 due to a lower yield. GLOBAL RICE TRADE PROJECTED TO EXPAND 9 PERCENT IN 2001 There were no revisions this month to 2001 global exports or imports. Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 remains projected at 24.4 million tons, up more than 9 percent from a year earlier. Imports are projected higher in 2001 for several countries. Indonesia's imports are projected to rise 1 million tons to 3 million on rising consumption and stagnant production. Iran's imports are projected to rise 400,000 tons to a record 1.6 million due to a big drop in production. The Philippines are expected to import 1 million tons in 2001, up 100,000 from this year's revised level as rising consumption outstrips production. Bangladesh is expected to import 500,000 tons, up 100,000 from this year, a result of a smaller crop. Other countries expected to increase imports in 2001 include: Saudi Arabia, China, North Korea, Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Cuba, Iraq, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey, and the United States. Nearly all major Asian exporters are expected to increase trade in 2001. India's exports are projected to rise 700,000 tons to 1.8 million based on record supplies and larger imports by Bangladesh. Thailand's and Vietnam's exports were each raised 600,000 tons, to 6.6 million and 4 million, due to large supplies. China is projected to export 3 million tons, up 200,000 from this year. Pakistan is projected to export a record 2 million tons, up 150,000. Outside Asia, both Uruguay and Australia are projected to expand exports in 2001. U.S. exports are projected to remain steady in 2001 at 2.85 million tons. Global rice trade in calendar year 2000 remains projected at 22.3 million tons. There was only one country specific revision. Imports by the Philippines were raised 100,000 tons to 900,000 based on the level of commercial purchases through mid-August and recent U.S. PL 480 agreements. Imports not matched with a specific buyer were lowered 100,000 tons. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:30 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on September 13, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order printed copies call 1-800-999-6779. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on August 15, 2000 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam f.o.b. export prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.345 3.581 3.270 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.317 3.562 3.205 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,908 6,184 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 37.7 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 188.1 210.5 198.2 Imports 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 Total supply 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 226.5 243.3 246.9 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 98.3 102.1 98.8 100.5 114.7 112.6 115.5 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9 Total Domestic use 102.2 105.6 102.7 104.6 119.1 116.6 119.4 Exports 98.1 82.2 77.2 86.9 85.3 89.0 88.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 26.5 26.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 71.5 64.5 60.8 59.6 62.5 62.0 Total use 200.2 187.8 179.9 191.5 204.4 205.6 207.4 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 37.7 39.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 10.8 18.3 19.0 $/cwt Average farm 4.75 price 6/ to 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.10 5.75 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.2 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A=Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1997/98 to 1999/00 ============================================================================== | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,743 9.94 8,478 September | 6.88 10,503 9.42 11,170 9.92 14,411 October | 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,286 10.00 12,216 November | 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,896 9.82 11,705 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,948 9.77 14,434 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,337 9.57 12,593 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 12,573 9.75 11,739 March | 5.82 11,714 8.93 12,968 9.67 12,151 April | 5.86 8,860 8.49 9,169 9.40 10,434 May | 5.56 9,966 8.21 9,145 9.38 12,220 June | 5.59 9,698 8.25 9,822 9.58 10,927 July | 5.57 1/ 12,018 1/ 8.26 9,329 9.58 8,611 | Average 2/ | 6.10 12,018 8.89 11,282 9.70 11,660 | Total 3/ | 6.10 4/ 144,218 135,386 139,919 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 1999/2000 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1999/2000 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01 ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | | $/cwt | August 1/ | 4.06 3.43 3.43 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 4.06 3.43 3.43 2/ 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 or as of | as of region 8/03/00 | 8/03/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 59 | 54 340 324 342 417 Other Western Europe 2 | 2 20 17 16 19 Turkey 12 | 0 100 115 202 187 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 0 0 4 34 Former Soviet Union 0 | 5 43 2 23 37 Japan 1 | 1 324 250 212 192 OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 76 | 12 203 183 315 344 Jordan 0 | 0 41 42 56 22 Indonesia 0 | 0 26 0 76 15 Saudi Arabia 37 | 10 106 96 168 130 AFRICA 58 | 40 157 171 205 324 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 0 0 31 31 82 Ghana 3 | 11 61 64 33 48 South Africa 31 | 26 81 67 114 147 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 61 | 75 1,741 1,718 934 1,010 Brazil 1 | 3 555 28 1 1 Canada 15 | 10 122 107 109 107 Colombia 0 | 0 11 297 34 28 Costa Rica 0 | 0 41 102 55 110 Dominican Republic 1 | 0 61 93 19 3 Guatemala 1 | 2 29 25 32 31 Haiti 0 | 9 164 100 86 121 Honduras 5 | 5 47 63 52 30 Jamaica 6 | 0 15 26 28 80 Leeward & Windward Is. 3 | 5 11 16 17 22 Mexico 20 | 29 417 397 309 318 Nicaragua 5 | 2 61 35 68 29 Panama 4 | 0 8 88 0 0 Peru 0 | 0 118 99 46 36 El Salvador 0 | 5 30 49 22 30 Trinidad 0 | 0 23 21 21 27 TOTAL 268 | 192 2,929 2,780 2,254 2,564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ 2,770 3/ | 2,800 3/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 2,878 Difference 352 4/ | 230 406 459 313 ============================================================================== "U.S. Export Sales" reports on a product-weight basis. 1/Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid donations. 3/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 4/ Average difference between Census and "U.S. Export Sales"1995/96 to 1998/98. Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 252 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 250 432 382 199 216 178 161 142 183 1999/00 9/ 284 454 394 231 242 209 184 161 203 Aug 2000 254 419 364 195 211 176 161 142 185 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. NA = Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.629 2.751 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.608 2.738 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,430 5,629 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 30.5 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 141.6 154.1 136.8 Imports 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.6 9.8 Total supply 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 164.7 177.7 177.1 Domestic use 4/ 60.3 67.7 62.3 60.5 79.9 77.7 79.9 Exports 80.8 64.8 56.6 71.6 70.7 69.5 68.0 Total use 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 150.6 147.2 147.9 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 30.5 29.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.3 20.7 19.8 MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.716 0.830 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.709 0.824 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,835 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.0 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 46.4 56.3 61.4 Imports 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 60.7 64.3 68.5 Domestic use 4/ 41.9 37.9 40.4 44.1 39.2 38.9 39.5 Exports 17.3 17.4 20.6 15.4 14.6 19.5 20.0 Total use 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 53.9 58.4 59.5 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 6.0 9.0 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.7 25.8 19.9 20.7 12.7 10.2 15.2 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE