RICE OUTLOOK September 13, 2000 September 2000, ERS-RCS-0900 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: The U.S. 2000/01 rice crop is projected at 191.6 million cwt (rough basis), down more than 3 percent from last month's forecast, a result of smaller harvested area. Both the 1998/99 and 1999/2000 crops were revised down this month. U.S. 2000/01 beginning stocks are estimated at 27.5 million cwt, down 10.2 million from a month earlier. The ending stocks estimate is from the August Rice Stocks report. U.S. 2000/01 exports are projected at 80 million cwt (rough basis), down 8 million from last month's forecast, a result of smaller supplies and strong global price competition. U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks were lowered 32 percent to 26.7 million cwt. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.2 percent, down from 19 percent last month. The 2000/01 season-average farm price was raised 75 cents on both the high and low ends to $5.50-$6.50 per cwt based on smaller supplies. Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 397.5 million tons, 600,000 tons below last month. Crop projections were lowered for Pakistan, the U.S., Spain, and Uzbekistan. Global trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 24.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month. Exports were raised for China, Australia, and Burma. Ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 59.4 million tons, down 1.25 million from last month and almost 6 percent below the 1999/2000 record. U.S. 2000/01 RICE CROP PROJECTION LOWERED TO 191.6 MILLION CWT The 2000/01 rice crop is projected at 191.6 million hundredweight (cwt), down 6.6 million from last month and 14.4 million below a year earlier's record. Harvested area was lowered 120,000 acres to 3.09 million, 12 percent below a year earlier. In contrast, average yield was raised 28 pounds per acre to a record 6,212. Long grain production was lowered 6.7 million cwt to 130.1 million and accounts for all of the month-to-month crop reduction. Combined medium/short grain production was raised 173,000 cwt to 61.6 million, the largest since 1994/95. Mississippi accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month reduction in harvested area. Area was lowered 60,000 acres to 218,000. In addition, rice area was lowered 30,000 acres in Arkansas to 1.41 million, 20,000 in Texas to 239,000, and 10,000 in Missouri to 175,000. The yield revision is largely due to a 400-pound per-acre increase in the Texas yield to a record 6,600 pounds. In addition, Mississippi's yield was raised 100 pounds to 5,900. In contrast, Missouri's yield was lowered 350 pounds per acre to 5,400. Mississippi accounts for the bulk of this month's crop reduction. Rice production was lowered 20 percent to 12.9 million cwt, the lowest since 1996. In Arkansas, production was lowered 2 percent to 86 million cwt, 9 million below a year earlier's record. Although production was lowered 11 percent in Missouri to 9.5 million cwt, it is second only to a year earlier's record of 9.9 million. Despite the record yield, smaller area pulled the Texas rice crop down almost 2 percent from last month to 15.8 million cwt. There were no revisions this month to the California and Louisiana crops. Louisiana's crop remains projected at 24.3 million cwt, 21 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1993/94. California's crop is projected to rise more than 18 percent to a record 43.3 million cwt. U.S. imports for 2000/01 are projected at 10.5 million cwt, down 500,000 (all long grain) from last month but still 2.4 percent larger than a year earlier's revised level. The reduction was based on weaker 1999/2000 imports. Beginning stocks were lowered 27 percent to 27.5 million cwt based on the Rice Stocks report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service on August 28. The result was a reduction in total U.S. supply of 17.3 million cwt to 229.6 million, nearly 4 percent below a year earlier. Total use in 2000/01 was lowered 4.5 million cwt to 202.9 million, down almost 4 percent from a year earlier's revised level. This month-to-month reduction was the result of an 8-million-cwt reduction in total exports, which was partially offset by a 3.5-million-cwt increase in total domestic use (including residual). Exports were lowered based on smaller U.S. supplies and expectations of very strong competition in international markets. Total domestic use is projected at 122.9 million cwt, up slightly from a year earlier's revised level. Exports for 2000/01 are projected at 80 million cwt, down 9 million from a year earlier. Milled rice exports are projected to account for the bulk of the reduction. Milled rice exports are projected at 55 million cwt, down 7 million from a month earlier. Rough rice exports are projected at 25 million cwt, down 1 million from last month's projection but still one of the largest on record. Ending stocks in 2000/01 were lowered 12.8 million cwt to 26.7 million, down 3 percent from 1999/2000's revised level. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered to 13.2 percent from 19 percent. Harvest is underway in all of the rice growing States. As of September 10, the 2000/01 rice harvest was 38 percent complete in the 5 major producing States, slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest was 97 percent complete in Texas and 92 percent complete in Louisiana, both well ahead of their 5-year averages. Harvest was 23 percent complete in Arkansas, nearly equal to its 5-year average. In contrast, the Mississippi harvest was reported at 23 percent complete, well behind its 5-year average of 39 percent. Harvest was about 4 percent complete in California, equal with its 5-year average. Through September 10, 67 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, behind a year earlier's 74 percent. Only 4 percent was reported in poor or very poor condition, the same as a year earlier. 2000/01 LONG GRAIN SUPPLY LOWERED 22.1 MILLION CWT TO 155 MILLION Long grain beginning stocks for 2000/01 were lowered by nearly 49 percent to 15.6 million cwt. Long grain production was lowered 6.7 million cwt to 130.1 million, 14 percent lower than a year earlier's record. Long grain imports were lowered 500,000 cwt to 9.3 million, 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Total long grain supplies are projected at 155 million cwt, down more than 12 percent from last month and more than 11 percent below a year earlier. Total long grain use in 2000/01 is projected at 142 million cwt, down 5.9 million cwt from last month and nearly 11 percent lower than a year earlier. Exports accounted for the month-to-month decline. Exports were lowered 6 million cwt to 62 million. In contrast, domestic use (including residual) was raised slightly to 80 million, still more than 9 percent lower than a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 13 million cwt, down 56 percent from last month and the lowest since 1995/96. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered to 9.2 percent from 19.7 percent last month. Total supply for the combined medium/short grain crop was raised 4.7 million cwt to 73.2 million, 18 percent larger than a year earlier. This month-to-month revision stems from a 4.5-million-cwt increase in beginning stocks to 10.4 million, 53 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium/short grain production was raised slightly to 61.6 million cwt, almost 14 percent larger than last year's weather-damaged crop. Total use of medium/short grain rice was raised 1.4 million cwt to 60.9 million, 18 percent larger than 1999/2000. This month-to-month expansion is caused by a 3.4-million-cwt increase in domestic use (including residual) to 42.9 million. The expansion in domestic use was partially offset by a 2-million-cwt drop in exports to 18 million. The reduction was based on reduced exports in 1999/2000. Ending stocks are projected to increase 3.3 million cwt to 12.3 million, up from a year earlier's 10.4 million. The stocks-to-use ratio was raised to 20.2 percent, up from 15.2 percent last month. U.S. 1999/2000 RICE CROP REDUCED 4.5 MILLION CWT TO 206 MILLION There were major revisions in the 1999/2000 supply and use projections due to a substantial reduction in ending stocks-as reported by NASS in the August Rice Stocks report-and a revised production estimate. Ending stocks for 1999/2000 were lowered 10.2 million cwt to 27.5 million (rough basis). Production for 1999/2000 was lowered 4.5 million cwt to 206 million, a result of lower area and a weaker yield. Harvested area was lowered more than 1 percent to 3.51 million acres, while yield was lowered 42 pounds per acre to 5,866 pounds. Imports were revised down 500,000 cwt to 10.25 million cwt based on shipments through June. Total supply was lowered 2 percent to 238.4 million cwt. On the use side, the food, industrial, and residual was raised almost 5 percent to 117.8 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year earlier's revised level. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered more than 5 percentage points to 13 percent. By grain type, the 1999/2000 long grain crop was revised down 2.2 million cwt to 151.9 million, and imports were lowered 500,000 cwt to 9.1 million. Total long grain supply was lowered 2 percent from last month to 175 million cwt. Domestic utilization (including residual) was raised 12 percent to 88.3 million cwt. Exports were raised this month 1.5 million cwt to 71 million. This raised total use for 1999/2000 to a record 159.3 million cwt. Long grain stocks for 1999/2000 were lowered to 15.6 million cwt from 30.5 million last month, cutting the stocks-to-use ratio by more than half to 9.8 percent. The combined medium/short 1999/2000 grain crop was revised down 4 percent to 54.2 million cwt. Total supply for medium/short grain was reduced 4 percent to 61.9 million cwt due to the smaller crop. Domestic utilization (including residual) was lowered 14 percent to 33.5 million cwt and exports were lowered to 18 million cwt from 19.5 million based on Census data through June. Total use for 1999/2000 was lowered 12 percent to 51.5 million cwt. Ending stocks were raised to 10.4 million cwt from 6 million, cutting the stocks-to-use ratio more than 10 percentage points to 20.3 percent. The production estimate for 1998/99 was revised down 3.6 million cwt to 184.4 million. The revision was the result of a 60,000-acre reduction in harvested area to 3.26 million and a 6-pound reduction in yield to 5,663 pounds. All of the month-to-month change was reflected in a reduction in the food, industrial, and residual, which was lowered to 111 million cwt from 114.7 million. 2000/01 SEASON AVERAGE FARM PRICE RAISED TO $5.50 TO $6.50 PER CWT The 2000/01 season average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.50 to $6.50, up 75 cents on both the high and low ends from last month. This revision is based on substantially smaller supplies. The 1999/2000 SAFP is revised up 1 cent to $6.11 per cwt, still well below a year earlier's $8.89. Reported average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have declined since the start of the marketing year. Last month, USDA estimated August's midmonth price at $5.48 per cwt and lowered July's to $5.47 from a preliminary $5.57 per cwt. These are the lowest monthly cash prices since July 1993. In early September, new crop long grain cash prices for rough rice were reported at $5.05 to $5.20 in Texas and Southwest Louisiana, down 20 cents from a month earlier. In the Delta, long grain rough rice was quoted at $5.60 per cwt, down about 40 cents from a month earlier but up slightly from late August. With the harvest just getting started in the Delta, supplies of high-quality long grain rice remain limited. There has been very little selling of southern medium grain since May. Except for very small amounts of specialty rices, there has been very little harvesting of the 2000 California crop. THAI EXPORT PRICES WEAKEN ON ABSENCE OF NEW SALES Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled white rice have dropped since early August, primarily due to an absence of new sales and some weakening in the value of the baht. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $183 per ton for the week ending September 11, down $11 from a month earlier. Prices for its premium jasmine rice have dropped since early August and were quoted at $526 per ton, down more than $25 from early August. While prices for 100 percent brokens have dropped nearly $10 since late August, they are unchanged from a month earlier. Quotes for comparable qualities of Vietnamese rice have dropped slightly since early August, as logistics return to normal after the flooding, and new sales are limited. Quotes for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were reported at $180 per ton for the week ending September 4, unchanged from last week but down $5 from a month earlier. Thai and Vietnamese prices are nearly the same for higher grades of rice. Thailand's rice typically sells at a premium to Vietnam's rice. Price quotes for similar type and quality of U.S. long grain rice have remained steady since late July after dropping during the first 10 months of the market year. Quotes for high quality southern long grain (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) are reported at $254 per ton. Prices were reported at $248 per ton from mid-May until late July. However, prices are still down $75 per ton from the start of the 1999/2000 season. The difference between Thai and U.S. rice prices has risen since late July, as U.S. prices have remained steady and Thai prices have dropped. For the week ending September 11, the difference was $71 per ton, up more than $10 from a month earlier. The difference is the largest since early November 1999. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) have remained at $419 per ton since late July. Prices were $441 per ton in early July. California is projected to produce a record crop in 2000. GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION TO DROP MORE THAN 1 PERCENT IN 2000/01 Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 397.5 million tons (milled basis), down 600,000 tons from last month's projection and more than 1 percent below a year earlier's record. Total consumption is projected at a record 401.2 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are forecast to rise 6 percent to 59.4 million tons, down 2 percent from last month's projection. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 14.8 percent, down from 15.1 percent last month and 15.8 percent a year earlier. Pakistan accounts for the bulk of the downward revision in 2000/01 global production. Pakistan's crop is projected at 4.3 million tons, down 600,000 from a month earlier due to a weaker yield caused by a lack of irrigation water in the Sindh region. Both planting and harvesting were delayed. The U.S. 2000/01 crop was lowered more than 200,000 tons to 6 million due to smaller plantings. Spain's crop was reduced 65,000 tons to 530,000 due to a lower yield resulting from less irrigation water. Finally, Uzbekistan's crop was reduced 56,000 tons to 114,000 due to a big drop in planting caused by severe drought. In contrast, Vietnam's 2000/01 crop was raised 150,000 tons to almost 20.8 million based on higher area. In addition, Australia's crop was raised 147,000 tons to 972,000 million based on Australian government data reporting much higher area. The 1999/2000 global rice crop was lowered fractionally to 402.9 million tons, still a record. Vietnam's crop was lowered 150,000 tons to almost 20.8 million based on severe flooding in late July and August, reducing harvested area for the summer-autumn crop. The Philippine's crop was lowered 23,000 tons to 7.77 million based on reports of lower area. In contrast, Pakistan's crop was raised 56,000 tons to almost 5.2 million tons due to greater area and higher yield. GLOBAL RICE TRADE PROJECTED TO EXPAND 9 PERCENT IN 2001 Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 24.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from a month earlier but more than 9 percent above a year earlier. On the export side, China's exports were raised 200,000 tons to 3.2 million based on larger exports in 2000. Australia's exports were raised 100,000 tons to 625,000 based on a larger crop. Finally, Burma's exports were raised 50,000 tons to 200,000 based on greater 2000 exports. In contrast, Pakistan's 2001 exports were lowered 200,000 tons to 1.8 million based on a smaller crop. U.S. exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 2.75 million due to smaller supplies and higher prices. On the import side, Iran's were lowered 200,000 tons to 1.4 million based on weaker 2000 imports. Nearly offsetting this reduction were several upward revisions. First, Bangladesh's imports were raised 150,000 tons to 650,000 based on larger trade in 2000. Iraq's imports were raised 75,000 tons to 950,000 to match higher 2000 imports. Finally, Uzbekistan's imports were raised 55,000 tons to 125,000 due to a smaller crop. Global rice trade in calendar year 2000 is projected at 22.3 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month as reductions nearly offset increases. On the export side, China's exports were raised 200,000 tons to 3 million based on the pace of shipments through July and recent sales to South Korea. Burma's exports were raised 50,000 tons to 200,000 based on shipments and commitments through July. In contrast, Thailand's exports were lowered 200,000 tons to 5.8 million based on commitments to major importers and the pace of shipments through August. On the import side, Bangladesh's imports were raised 100,000 tons to 500,000 based on recent purchases from Burma. Iraq's imports were raised 100,000 tons to 950,000 based on deliveries and purchases to date. Finally, Liberia's imports were raised 15,000 tons to 40,000 based on the pace of shipments to date. In contrast, Iran's imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 1.1 million based on the pace of shipments and purchases to date. ----------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:30 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4 pm on October 13, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order printed copies call 1-800-999-6779. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on September 14, 2000 in Grain: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.110 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.085 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,212 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 191.6 Imports 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.3 10.5 Total supply 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 222.9 238.4 229.6 Food, industrial, & residual 98.3 102.1 98.8 100.4 111.0 117.8 119.0 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9 Total Domestic use 102.2 105.6 102.6 104.6 115.5 121.8 122.9 Exports 98.1 82.2 77.3 87.0 85.3 89.0 80.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 26.5 25.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 71.5 64.5 60.8 59.6 62.5 55.0 Total use 200.2 187.8 179.9 191.5 200.8 210.8 202.9 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 26.7 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 13.2 $/cwt Average farm 5.50 price 6/ to 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.11 6.50 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.0 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A=Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 5.48 1/ N/A 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 6.88 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.82 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.86 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.56 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.59 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.47 9,361 8.26 9,329 | | Average 2/ | 5.48 6.11 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ |5.50-6.50 4/ 6.11 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. N/A = Note available. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01 ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt | August 1/ | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2 | 3.84 3.27 3.27 2/ 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of Prelim- region 8/31/00 | 8/31/99 inary 2/ Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 71 | 96 387 340 324 342 Other Western Europe 7 | 8 19 20 17 16 Turkey 12 | 5 231 100 115 202 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 1 0 0 4 Former Soviet Union 0 | 56 57 43 2 23 Japan 2 | 1 374 324 250 212 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 98 | 177 395 203 183 315 Jordan 0 | 10 21 41 42 56 Indonesia 0 | 99 118 26 0 76 Saudi Arabia 69 | 62 151 106 96 168 | AFRICA 66 | 60 171 157 171 205 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 0 20 0 31 31 Ghana 11 | 17 70 61 64 33 South Africa 31 | 40 70 81 67 114 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 175 | 157 1,406 1,741 1,718 934 Brazil 1 | 3 4 555 28 1 Canada 36 | 33 102 122 107 109 Colombia 0 | 0 1 11 297 34 Costa Rica 0 | 0 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 0 | 0 38 61 93 19 Guatemala 1 | 2 42 29 25 32 Haiti 15 | 21 144 164 100 86 Honduras 15 | 9 114 47 63 52 Jamaica 11 | 0 35 15 26 28 Leeward & Windward Is. 3 | 5 11 11 16 17 Mexico 77 | 59 629 417 397 309 Nicaragua 8 | 14 95 61 35 68 Panama 5 | 0 12 8 88 0 Peru 0 | 0 19 118 99 46 El Salvador 0 | 7 54 30 49 22 Trinidad 0 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 3 0 | TOTAL 431 | 563 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 3/ 2,520 3/| 2,790 4/ 3,158 3,186 2,713 Difference 5/ | 342 5/ 230 406 459 ============================================================================== U.S. Export Sales reports on a product-weight basis. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and sales commitments. 2/ Preliminary. Data are from U.S. Export Sales. 3/ The U.S. Census export total (product-weight basis) is the official total. The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include food aid donations. 4/ USDA forecast, milled basis. 5/ Average difference between Census and U.S. Export Sales 1995/96 to 1998/99. Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 252 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/00 284 454 394 230 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 254 419 364 185 188 169 158 145 180 2000/01 9/ 254 419 362 189 198 172 159 145 181 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. NA = Not available. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 130.1 Imports 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 9.1 9.3 Total supply 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 162.4 175.0 155.0 Domestic use 4/ 60.3 67.7 62.2 60.5 77.6 88.3 80.0 Exports 80.8 64.8 56.7 71.6 70.7 71.0 62.0 Total use 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 148.3 159.3 142.0 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 13.0 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.8 9.2 --continued Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 61.6 Imports 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 59.4 61.9 73.2 Domestic use 4/ 41.9 37.9 40.4 44.1 37.9 33.5 42.9 Exports 17.3 17.4 20.6 15.4 14.6 18.0 18.0 Total use 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 52.5 51.5 60.9 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 12.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.7 25.9 19.9 20.7 13.0 20.3 20.2 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE