RICE Tables-Updates November 29, 2000 November 2000, ERS-RCS-1100 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Rice Outlook is issued 11 times a year electronically from the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. In November only the tables are released. Printed copies are not available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm #riceup in PDFand ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:30 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 3 pm on December 13, 2000. The Summary of the 2000 Rice Yearbook will be released at 4 PM on November 29, 2000. The 1999 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order printed copies call 1-800-999-6779. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on November 14, 2000, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.110 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.085 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,236 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 192.4 Imports 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.0 10.3 Total supply 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 222.9 238.1 230.2 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 98.3 101.1 97.7 99.2 109.5 117.4 119.0 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9 Total Domestic use 102.2 104.5 101.6 103.3 114.0 121.4 122.9 Exports 98.8 83.2 78.3 88.2 86.8 89.2 80.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 25.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 72.6 65.6 62.1 61.1 64.0 55.0 Total use 201.0 187.8 179.9 191.5 200.8 210.6 202.9 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 27.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.1 13.4 $/cwt 5.75 Average to Farm price 6/ 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.11 6.25 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.1 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent of milled and rough rice exports. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | ---------------- ------------------ ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt =================================== ========================================== | August | 5.60 10,925 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 6.88 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.86 1/ 10,577 1/ 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.82 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.86 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.56 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.59 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.47 9,361 8.26 9,329 | Average 2/ | 5.73 10,577 6.11 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ |5.75-6.25 4/ 6.11 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.56 3.31 3.30 1/ 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.69 3.29 3.28 2/ 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 10/26/00 | 10/26/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 192 | 181 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 9 | 12 29 29 28 85 Turkey 63 | 28 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 0 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 42 | 80 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 246 | 289 515 275 242 380 Jordan 16 | 21 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 119 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 86 | 80 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 102 | 107 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 21 15 15 34 33 Ghana 23 | 35 81 58 66 66 South Africa 32 | 44 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 375 | 353 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 1 | 3 2 556 29 9 Canada 55 | 51 184 176 177 170 Colombia 2 | 0 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 1 | 23 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 4 | 0 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 2 | 0 42 28 28 35 Haiti 38 | 35 201 225 183 152 Honduras 37 | 14 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 20 | 19 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 3 | 5 6 12 21 16 Mexico 161 | 158 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 30 | 25 89 68 40 51 Panama 5 | 0 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 3 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 4 | 10 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 5 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 4 0 N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL | U.S. Export Sales 2/ 1,029 | 1,112 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 Census Bureau 2,520 3/| 2,800 3/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 Difference 4/ | 345 5/ 274 240 405 460 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ Total exports and sales commitments reported by U.S. Export Sales. 3/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. 4/ Difference between final exports reported by Census and U.S. Exports Sales 1996/97 to 1998/99. 5/ Average difference 1996/97 to 1999/2000. Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ --------------------------- --------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled Grade B par- ----------- A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/00 284 454 395 230 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 375 364 194 194 176 157 131 180 2000/01 9/ 265 394 363 191 199 174 158 139 179 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, for domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 130.6 Imports 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 7.5 9.1 Total supply 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 162.4 173.4 155.3 Domestic use 4/ 59.7 67.0 61.5 59.8 76.9 86.7 80.0 Exports 81.4 65.5 57.4 72.3 71.4 71.1 62.0 Total use 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 148.3 157.8 142.0 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 13.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 9.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 61.8 Imports 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.5 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 59.4 63.2 73.4 Domestic use 4/ 41.8 37.5 40.1 43.5 37.2 34.7 42.9 Exports 17.5 17.7 20.9 15.9 15.4 18.1 18.0 Total use 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 52.5 52.8 60.9 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 12.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.7 25.9 19.9 20.7 13.0 19.8 20.6 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals for long and combined medium/short grain do not include brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. 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