RICE OUTLOOK December 13, 2000 December 2000, ERS-RCS-1200 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: There were no changes this month to the U.S. rice supply and use projections. The U.S. 2000/01 season-average farm price was lowered 25 cents on both the high and low ends to $5.50 to $6.00 per cwt. Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 400.6 million tons, up 2.9 million from last month but still more than 1 percent below a year earliers record Global trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 23.3 million tons, down 1.25 million from last months forecast but up slightly from a year earlier. Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 62.7 million tons, up 3.5 million from last months forecast but still more than 2 million tons below a year earliers record. Rice Outlook Data Coordinator plans to retire this month. U.S. RICE SUPPLIES IN 2000/01 PROJECTED TO DROP MORE THAN 3 PERCENT There were no changes made this month to the U.S. rice supply or use projections. The 2000/01 rice crop remains projected at 192.4 million hundredweight (cwt), down nearly 7 percent from a year earliers record. A 12-percent reduction in planted area is behind the smaller crop. The average yield is projected at a record 6,236 pounds per acre, up more than 6 percent from a year earlier. Long grain accounts for nearly all of the drop in production. Long grain production is projected at 130.6 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier. Medium grain production is projected at 59.4 million cwt, up nearly 18 percent. Production of short grain rice, which accounts for about 1 percent of the total crop, is projected at 2.4 million cwt, down 33 percent from 1999. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release acreage and yield estimates by State and grain type on January 11, 2001. In addition, USDA will report December 1 stocks in the Rice Stocks report released on January 11. Harvested area is projected lower this year in every major rice growing State except California. Arkansas is expected to account for the largest share of the reduction, with harvested area estimated at 1.41 million acres, down 215,000 from 1999. Harvested area in Louisiana is projected at 495,000 acres, down 121,000 from last year and the smallest since 1989. Harvested area in Mississippi is projected at 218,000 acres, down 105,000 from 1999 and the smallest since 1996. Mississippi reported the largest percentage drop--33 percent--in harvested area. The area reductions in Texas and Missouri are much smaller. Harvested area in Missouri is projected at 175,000 acres, down just 9 acres from last years record. In Texas, harvested area is projected at 239,000 acres, a 20,000-acre decline from 1999. This is the smallest rice area in Texas in more than 40 years. Rice acreage in Texas has declined for more than 20 years. In contrast, harvested area in California is projected at 548,000 acres, up 43,000 from a year earlier and the largest since 1981. Medium grain accounts for the bulk of Californias rice acreage. Yields are projected higher for all States this year except Louisiana, with records projected for Texas, Mississippi, and Missouri. The Texas yield is projected at 6,500 pounds per acre, a 10-percent increase from a year earlier and the highest average yield ever reported for a southern State. In Mississippi, rice yields are projected at 6,000 pounds per acre, tied with the 1996 record. The Missouri rice yield is projected at 5,700 pounds. Yields are projected up 6 percent this year in both Mississippi and Missouri. The Arkansas yield is projected at 6,050 pounds per acre, up more than 3 percent from a year earlier. Californias yield is projected at 8,000 pounds per acre, up 10 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1997. In contrast, Louisianas yield is projected to drop fractionally to 4,980 pounds per acre. Problems stemming from early season drought hurt Louisianas rice yields this year. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the drop in U.S. rice production. Arkansas crop is projected at 85.3 million cwt, a 10-percent drop from a year earlier. Louisianas crop is projected at 24.7 million cwt, down 20 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 1993. Mississippis crop, projected at 13.1 million cwt, is down more than 28 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 1996. In contrast, production in California is projected at a record 43.8 million cwt, up almost 20 percent from 1999. Rice production in Texas is projected at 15.5 million cwt, up almost 2 percent from 1999. In Missouri, rice production is projected at a record 10 million cwt, fractionally above a year earlier. Imports remain projected at almost 10.3 million cwt, up more than 2 percent from 1999/2000. Beginning stocks remain estimated at 27.5 million cwt, up nearly 25 percent from a year earlier. Total supply is projected at 230.2 million cwt, down more than 3 percent from last years record. U.S. RICE EXPORTS PROJECTED TO DECLINE 10 PERCENT IN 2000/01 Total use for 2000/01 remains projected at 202.9 million cwt, down nearly 4 percent from a year earliers record. Exports account for all of the reduction. Domestic use (including residual and seed use) remains projected at a record 122.9 million cwt, up more than a percent from a year earlier. Exports remain projected at 80 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier. Milled rice accounts for nearly all of the reduction in exports. Milled rice exports are projected at 55 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier. Smaller supplies and intense global competition are behind the lower milled exports this year. In contrast, rough rice exports are projected at 25 million cwt, virtually unchanged from 1999/2000 and only slightly below the 1997/98 record. The primary export markets for U.S. rough rice are Mexico, Central America, and Turkey. Through the end of November, U.S. Export Sales reported total commitments (exports plus outstanding sales) at 1.29 million tons (product-weight basis), down 10 percent from a year earlier. Exports were reported at 729,300 tons, 15 percent behind a year earlier. Outstanding sales of 556,800 tons were 3 percent behind a year earlier. Through November, total commitments were behind a year earlier to Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. In contrast, total commitments were well ahead of a year earlier to Turkey, Mexico, and Central America. Ending stocks remain projected at 27.3 million cwt, down marginally from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is reported at 13.4 percent, up from a year earliers 13.1 percent. U.S. LONG GRAIN SUPPLIES PROJECTED TO DROP MORE THAN 10 PERCENT U.S. 2000/01 long grain production remains projected at 130.6 million cwt, down 14 percent from last year s record. Lower acreage, a result of weak prices at planting, is behind the smaller crop. Beginning long grain stocks are estimated at 15.6 million cwt, up about 11 percent from last year. Long grain imports remain projected at 9.05 million cwt, up from 7.5 million in 1999/2000. Thai jasmine and basmati from India and Pakistan account for the bulk of U.S. long grain imports. Total long grain supply remains projected at 155.3 million cwt, down more than 10 percent from 1999/2000. Total use for long grain rice remains projected at 142 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier. Both exports and domestic use (including residual) are projected below a year earlier. Long grain exports remain projected at 62 million cwt, down 13 percent from last year and the smallest since 1996/97. Long grain domestic use is projected at 80 million cwt, down nearly 8 percent from last year. Ending long grain stocks remain projected at 13.3 million cwt, down 15 percent from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 9.3 percent, down from 9.9 percent last year. The 2000/01 combined medium/short grain crop remains projected at 61.8 million cwt, up more than 14 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1994/95. A record California crop and expanded medium grain plantings in the South are behind the larger medium/short grain crop. Beginning stocks are estimated at 10.4 million cwt, up 53 percent from a year earlier but below the 5-year average of 12.3 million cwt. Imports are projected at 1.2 million cwt, down more than 50 percent from a year earlier. Total medium/short grain supply remains projected at 73.4 million cwt, up 16 percent from a year earlier. Total medium/short grain use is projected at 60.9 million cwt, up more than 15 percent from a year earlier. Domestic use (including residual) is projected at 42.9 million cwt, up almost 24 percent from a year earlier. Medium/short grain exports are projected at 18 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Ending stocks remain projected at 12.5 million cwt, up 20 percent from a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 20.6 percent, up slightly from a year earlier. U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE PROJECTED AT $5.50-$6.00 PER CWT The 2000/01 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.50 to $6.00 per cwt, down 25 cents on both the high and low ends from last month. The reduction is based on reported monthly cash prices through mid-November and expectations regarding prices for the remainder of the 2000/01 market year. The mid-point of the 2000/01 SAFP range is the lowest since 1986/87. Reported average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have risen slightly since the start of the market year in August. Last month, USDA estimated Novembers mid-month price at $5.64 per cwt and lowered Octobers to $5.61 from a preliminary $5.86. Since August, reported monthly cash prices have averaged $5.64 per cwt, 17 cents higher than the July average cash price. Prices for U.S. southern long grain rice have strengthened since early November, primarily in response to a much smaller long grain crop this year and strong rough rice exports. For the week ending December 12, cash prices in the Delta for long grain rough rice were quoted around $6.25 per cwt, up about 25 cents from early November. In Southwest Louisiana, long grain prices were reported at $6.10 per cwt, up more than 20 cents from a month earlier and 90 cents higher than quoted prices in mid-August. And in Texas, long grain rough rice was quoted at $6.20 per cwt, up more than 30 cents from a month earlier and 85 cents above prices reported in August. Long grain prices in Texas are the highest since the start of the 1999/2000 market year. In contrast to strengthening long grain prices, quoted prices for medium grain in California and the South have dropped substantially since the start of the 1999/2000 market year. In California, rough rice prices for the 2000 crop were estimated at a little more than $5.00 per cwt in November based on milled rice sales. These calculated prices were around $2 per cwt below a year earlier. Because the bulk of Californias rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of the milled rice. In the South, prices are quoted at about $5 per cwt, down about 20 cents from the start of the market year and about 50 cents below a year earlier. A projected record crop in California plus expanded medium grain acreage in the South are behind the lower prices. CALIFORNIA MEDIUM GRAIN MILLED PRICES CONTINUE TO DECLINE Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento) were reported at $331 per ton for the week ending December 11, down $11 from late November and $23 below a month earlier. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest since early 1991. Prices were $441 per ton in early July but dropped to $419 by the end of the month and have continued to decline since. The price decline is primarily in response to expectations of a record California harvest this year. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston) have remained at $276 per ton since mid-October. Prices had steadily risen since late July, primarily due to large food aid purchases in September and October and a smaller long grain crop this year. Prices were reported at $248 per ton from mid-May until late July after dropping since early 1999. Thai export prices for high and medium grades of regular milled white rice have traded in a very narrow range since late July. Prices strengthened slightly in early October due to flooding and transportation problems in South and Southeast Asia and a large sale of Thai rice to South Korea. However, prices have since rescinded. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $191 per ton for the week ending December 11, nearly the same as a month earlier. Reported Thai prices since late July have been the lowest since the spring of 1993. Prices for parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were reported at $190 per ton for the week ending December 11, up $5 from a week earlier but virtually unchanged from November. Prices for parboiled rice have traded in a very narrow range since early September. In contrast to prices for both regular milled rice and parboiled rice, prices for Thailands premium jasmine rice have declined substantially since early August. Prices were reported at $372 per ton for the week ending December 11, down $16 from a week earlier and $72 below mid-November. Prices for Thai jasmine were quoted at $570 per ton in late July. Large supplies and weak international demand are behind the large price drop. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A.1 Special 100-percent brokens) traded between $138 and $152 per ton from July through early October. However, prices have dropped since and were reported at $127 for the week ending December 4. Prices have risen a few dollars per ton since. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens has averaged about $85 per ton since mid-October. The difference widened from July until October as U.S. prices increased and the Thai price traded in a very narrow range. For the week ending December 11, the difference was $85 per ton, little changed since mid-October. The difference averaged $50 per ton in 1999/2000. Quoted prices for Vietnams 5 percent brokens have dropped since late October. Prices were quoted at $170 per ton for the week ending December 11, down $5 from late November and $10 from a month earlier. Prices were quoted at $185 per ton in late October. Some recovery from flood damage and a lack of major new sales are behind the weaker prices. Vietnams rice is trading about $15 per ton below prices for the same quality of Thai rice, up from $5 or $6 in August and September. Thailands rice typically sells at a larger premium to Vietnams rice. GLOBAL PRODUCTION FOR 2000/01 REVISED UP NEARLY 3 MILLION TONS Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 400.6 million tons (milled basis), up 2.9 million tons from last months forecast but more than 1 percent below a year earliers record. Global consumption is projected at a record 402.7 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month and more than 2 million tons above a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at 62.7 million tons, up 3.5 million from last months forecast but more than 2 million tons below a year earliers revised record. Thailand and Indonesia account for most of the month-to-month increase in global ending stocks. The resulting stocks-to- use ratio is 15.6 percent, down almost 1 percentage point from last months forecast and below a year earliers 16.2 percent. Production was raised this month for several major importing and exporting countries. Indonesia, the worlds largest rice importing country, accounts for almost half the month-to-month increase in global production. Indonesias 2000/01 rice crop was raised 1.4 million tons to a record 33.5 million based on information from the Government of Indonesia, indicating greater plantings and a higher yield. Indonesias 1999/2000 crop was raised this month as well. Production in the Philippines, also a major importer, was raised 283,000 tons to nearly 7.9 million tons, a record. The increase was due to a higher yield. Area was actually lowered. Production was raised for several major exporters as well. Thailands 2000/01 production was raised 750,000 tons to a record 16.6 million based on larger plantings and a higher yield. Egypts crop was raised 400,000 tons to a record 3.9 million due to a record yield and slightly higher plantings. Vietnams crop was raised 100,000 tons to 20.7 million based on slightly greater plantings of its 10-month crop. Finally, Spains production was raised 60,000 tons to a record 595,000 due to a higher yield. In contrast to these upward revisions, production forecasts for 2000/01 were lowered for Uruguay and Uzbekistan. Uruguays crop was lowered 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on government data reporting smaller plantings, primarily a result of low prices. Weaker plantings are behind a 14,000-ton reduction in Uzbekistans crop to 100,000 tons. The country has suffered severe drought this year. Global rice production for 1999/2000 was raised 2.5 million tons this month to a record 404.9 million, nearly 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Indonesia accounts for the bulk of the increase. Indonesias production was raised more than 1.3 million tons to 33.4 million based on government data reporting a higher yield. Thailands crop was raised 850,000 tons to 16.5 million based on reported greater plantings. Finally, Egypts crop was raised 272,000 tons to 3.8 million based on government data reporting larger plantings and a higher yield. GLOBAL TRADE FORECAST FOR 2001 LOWERED 1.25 MILLION TONS Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 23.3 million tons (milled), down 1.25 million from last months forecast but up 270,000 tons from a year earliers revised level. However, trade would still be more than 14 percent below the 1998 record. Exports for 2001 were lowered this month for several major exporters, primarily due to reductions in projected 2000 exports for several of the countries and a reduced projection for global imports in 2001. Indias 2001 exports were lowered 500,000 tons to 1.3 million. Indias internal prices are currently uncompetitive in global markets. Thailands exports were lowered 300,000 tons to 6.3 million. Vietnams exports were cut 200,000 tons to 3.8 million. Finally, U.S. 2001 rice exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 2.65 million, a result of a lowered global trade forecast and a projected 10-percent reduction in U.S. market year exports. In contrast to these reductions, Egypts 2001 exports were raised 50,000 tons to 500,000 based on a much larger crop. On the import side, Indonesias imports were lowered 1.2 million tons to 1.8 million based on a much larger crop and reduced 2000 imports. The Philippines imports were lowered 300,000 tons to 700,000 based on a larger crop. The U.S. imports were lowered 50,000 tons to 300,000 based on lower imports in 2000. Japans 2001 imports were lowered 35,000 tons to 740,000 based on expectations regarding the timing of deliveries of minimum access imports. Finally, Spains imports were lowered 20,000 tons to 75,000 based on a larger 2000/01 crop. Global rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at more than 23 million tons, up 355,000 from last months forecast but down 8 percent from a year earlier. On the export side, Thailands exports were raised 300,000 tons to 6.3 million based on shipments through October. Japans 2000 exports, virtually all food aid, were raised 100,000 tons to 250,000 based on government data. A much larger crop is behind an 80,000-ton increase in Egypts exports to 500,000 tons, the largest since 1971. Australias exports were raised 25,000 tons to 575,000 based on shipments through October. In contrast, Vietnams 2000 exports were lowered 200,000 tons to 3.2 million based on shipments through October and expectations regarding the rest of the year. On the import side, Indonesias imports were lowered 200,000 tons to 1.8 million based on shipments through October and a much larger 1999/2000 crop. Imports by the United States were lowered 50,000 tons to 275,000 based on deliveries through October. Finally, Japans 2000 rice imports were lowered 40,000 tons based on deliveries through October and expectations regarding shipments for the remainder of the year. RICE OUTLOOK DATA COORDINATOR PLANS TO RETIRE THIS MONTH After careful consideration, Jenny Gonzales is planning to retire at the end of December. Jenny Gonzales--Data Coordinator for the Rice Outlook Report, professional associate, and friend--has served ERS for more than 22 years and is looking forward to her retirement. Jenny has coordinated the data management activities for the Rice Situation and Outlook Report and the Rice Yearbook since 1989. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:30 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:30 pm on January 12, 2000. The Summary of the 2000 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. The text of the 2000 Rice Yearbook should be available electronically within a week. The full report should be available within 2 weeks. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on December 14, 2000, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information Contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present ERS on the World Wide Web Coming in January--A newly designed, newly structured ERS website ERS's newly redesigned and restructured website will provide you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. 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Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.110 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.085 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,236 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 192.4 Imports 8.0 7.7 10.5 9.2 10.5 10.0 10.3 Total supply 231.6 212.8 207.1 219.4 222.9 238.1 230.2 Food, industrial, & residual 98.3 101.1 97.7 99.2 109.5 117.4 119.0 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9 Total Domestic use 102.2 104.5 101.6 103.3 114.0 121.4 122.9 Exports 98.8 83.2 78.3 88.2 86.8 89.2 80.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 25.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 72.6 65.6 62.1 61.1 64.0 55.0 Total use 201.0 187.8 179.9 191.5 200.8 210.6 202.9 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 27.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.1 13.4 $/cwt Average farm 5.50 price 6/ to 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.11 6.00 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.1 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent of milled and rough rice exports. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | ---------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt =================================== ========================================== | August | 5.60 10,925 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 6.88 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 5.64 1/ 11,424 1/ 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.82 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.86 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.56 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.59 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.47 9,361 8.26 9,329 | Average 2/ | 5.64 11,424 6.11 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ |5.50-6.00 4/ 6.11 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01 ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | $/cwt | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 1/ 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.62 3.26 3.26 2/ 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 11/30/00 | 11/30/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 218 | 227 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 11 | 16 29 29 28 85 Turkey 141 | 73 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 0 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 56 | 161 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 249 | 329 515 275 242 380 Jordan 16 | 20 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 119 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 87 | 118 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 101 | 123 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 21 15 15 34 33 Ghana 22 | 39 81 58 66 66 South Africa 32 | 56 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 508 | 444 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 0 | 3 2 556 29 9 Canada 70 | 58 184 176 177 170 Colombia 2 | 0 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 1 | 18 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 4 | 0 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 2 | 3 42 28 28 35 Haiti 56 | 51 201 225 183 152 Honduras 47 | 28 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 20 | 19 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 3 | 5 6 12 21 16 Mexico 230 | 193 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 44 | 25 89 68 40 51 Panama 0 | 0 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 18 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 12 | 11 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 7 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 2/ 1,286 | 1,431 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Total Census Bureau 2,520 2/ | 2,800 3/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 Difference 3/ | 342 4/ 274 240 405 460 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. 3/ Difference between final exports reported by Census and U.S. Export Sales 1996/97 to 1998/99. 4/ Average difference 1996/97 to 1999/2000. Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ ------------------------------- ----------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/00 284 454 395 230 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 2000/01 9/ 267 377 363 190 196 173 156 136 177 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/100-pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4-percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100-percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 130.6 Imports 7.0 6.5 9.3 8.0 8.5 7.5 9.1 Total supply 155.5 142.6 133.0 146.6 162.4 173.4 155.3 Domestic use 4/ 59.7 67.0 61.5 59.8 76.9 86.7 80.0 Exports 81.4 65.5 57.4 72.3 71.4 71.1 62.0 Total use 141.1 132.5 118.9 132.1 148.3 157.8 142.0 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 13.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 9.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 61.8 Imports 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.5 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 59.4 63.2 73.4 Domestic use 4/ 41.8 37.5 40.1 43.5 37.2 34.7 42.9 Exports 17.5 17.7 20.9 15.9 15.4 18.1 18.0 Total use 59.2 55.3 61.0 59.4 52.5 52.8 60.9 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 12.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.7 25.9 19.9 20.7 13.0 19.8 20.6 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals for long and combined medium/short grain do not include brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE