RICE OUTLOOK January 12, 2001 January 2001, ERS-RCS-0101 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: The U.S. 2000/01 rice crop is estimated at 191.1 million cwt, down 1.3 million from last month, a result of a slight reduction in planted area. The yield was raised fractionally. U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks are projected at 25.6 million cwt, down 1.7 million from a month earlier and 7 percent below 1999/2000. Based on data from the January 2001 Rice Stocks report, U.S. rice stocks on December 1, 2000 are estimated at 143 million cwt (rough basis), down 2 percent from a year earlier. Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 397.6 million tons (milled basis), down 3 million from last months forecast. China accounts for nearly all of the reduction. Global trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 23.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month or a year earlier. Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 59.8 million tons, down 2.9 million from last months forecast and more than 5.7 million below a year earliers record. U.S. 2000 RICE CROP ESTIMATED AT 191.1 MILLION CWT The 2000/01 U.S. rice crop is estimated at 191.1 million hundredweight (cwt), down fractionally from last months forecast and more than 7 percent below a year earliers record. The month- to-month reduction was the result of a 41,000-acre decrease in harvested area to 3.04 million acres, which was partially offset by a slightly higher yield. Texas and Louisiana account for the bulk of this months reduction in harvested area. In Texas, harvested area was lowered 25,000 acres to 214,000, the smallest in more than 60 years. Louisianas harvested area was lowered 15,000 acres to 480,000, the smallest since 1987. In addition, Missouris harvested area was lowered fractionally to 174,000 acres. Harvested area was not changed this month for Arkansas, California, and Mississippi. Harvested area is lower this year in every major rice growing State except California. Arkansas area, estimated at 1.41 million acres, is down 13 percent from a year earliers record. Louisianas harvested area is down 22 percent from a year earlier. Mississippis harvested area, estimated at 218,000 acres, is down 105,000 acres from 1999. Missouris rice area was lowered fractionally to 174,000 acres, down from the record of 184,000 a year earlier. Area harvested in Texas is 45,000 acres below a year earlier. In contrast, Californias harvested acreage is estimated at 548,000 acres, up from 505,000 last year. Average total yield is estimated at a record 6,278 pounds per acre, up 42 pounds from last months projection. Yields were revised up this month for Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. In contrast, yields were lowered for Mississippi and California. Field yields are higher this year than in 1999 in every major rice growing State. The Texas yield was raised 200 pounds per acre this month to a record 6,700, up 14 percent from last year. This is the largest average yield ever achieved by a southern State. Arkansas yield is estimated at 6,100 pounds per acre, up 50 pounds from last month and 250 pounds higher than a year earlier. Louisianas yield was raised 100 pounds per acre to a record 5,080, up 80 pounds from 1999/2000. Californias yield is estimated at 7,950 pounds per acre, down 50 pounds from last month but up more than 9 percent from last years weather damaged crop. Mississippis yield was lowered 100 pounds per acre to 5,900, up 250 from a year earlier. Missouris yield remains estimated at a record 5,700 pounds per acre, up 300 pounds from last year. Production was lowered slightly this month for every major rice growing State except Arkansas. Rice production was raised 700,000 cwt to 86 million, 9 million below a year earliers record. The California crop was lowered fractionally to 43.6 million cwt, still a record. Louisianas production was lowered fractionally to 24.4 million, 21 percent below 1999/2000. Mississippi production was lowered nearly 2 percent to 12.9 million cwt, 5.4 million below a year earlier. Missouri production was lowered marginally to 9.9 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earliers record. Rice production in Texas is estimated at 14.3 million cwt, down 1.2 million from last months forecast and 6 percent smaller than a year earlier. Rice imports were lowered more than 2 percent to 10 million cwt (all long grain) based on deliveries through October. Beginning stocks were lowered fractionally to 27.5 million cwt based on an adjustment in the milling rate. Total supply was lowered marginally to 228.6 million cwt, down 4 percent from a year earliers record. Based on data reported in the January 2001 Rice Stocks report, December 1, 2000 total U.S. rice stocks are estimated at 143 million cwt (rough basis), down 2 percent from a year earlier. Total long grain stocks are estimated at 87.8 million cwt, down from more than 100 million a year earlier. In contrast, combined medium/short grain stocks were estimated at 53.3 million cwt on December 1, 2000, up from 44.2 million a year earlier. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the reduction in total stocks. Rice stocks in Arkansas are estimated at 65.5 million on December 1, 2000, down from 72.8 million a year earlier. In contrast, December 1, 2000 total rice stocks in California are estimated at 39.6 million cwt, up from 31.1 million a year earlier. U.S. RICE EXPORTS PROJECTED TO DROP 10 PERCENT IN 2000/01 Total rice use, including exports and domestic and residual, is forecast at 203 million cwt, up marginally from last month, but nearly 4 percent lower than a year earliers record. The month- to-month change is the result of a slight increase in expected seed use. The year-to-year reduction is the result of a 10- percent drop in exports. Total domestic use (including residual) is projected at a record 123 million cwt, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Total exports remain projected at 80 million cwt, down from a year earliers 88.9 million cwt. Milled rice accounts for all of the year-to-year decline in exports. Milled rice exports are projected at 55 million cwt, down nearly 14 percent from 1999/2000 and the smallest in more than a decade. Rough rice exports are projected at 25 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Mexico, Central America, and Turkey are the major markets for U.S. rough rice. Through the end of December, U.S. Export Sales reported total commitments (exports plus outstanding sales) at 1.6 million tons (product-weight basis), down 10 percent from a year earlier. Exports were reported at 1.03 million tons, 6 percent behind a year earlier. Outstanding sales of 564,400 tons were more than 16 percent behind a year earlier. Through December, total commitments were behind a year earlier to the European Union, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, total commitments were well ahead of a year earlier to Turkey and Mexico. Total ending stocks are projected at 25.6 million cwt, down 6 percent from last months forecast and 1.9 million cwt below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 12.6 percent, down from last months 13.4 percent and 13.0 percent in 1999/2000. COMBINED MEDIUM/SHORT GRAIN CROP LOWERED 2 MILLION CWT Combined medium/short grain production was lowered 3 percent to 59.6 million cwt, still 10 percent higher than a year earlier. A record crop in California--the primary medium/short grain producer--accounts for all of the year-to-year increase. Beginning stocks were lowered fractionally to 10.4 million cwt, a result of a revised milling yield. Total medium/short grain supply is projected at 71.3 million cwt, down 3 percent from last months forecast but nearly 13 percent larger than a year earlier. Total use was raised fractionally to 61 million cwt, up more than 15 percent from a year earlier. The year-to-year increase comes exclusively from domestic use (including residual). Domestic use was raised marginally to 43 million cwt, up 24 percent from a year earlier. Medium/short grain exports remain projected at 18 million cwt, virtually unchanged from 1999/2000. Ending stocks were lowered more than 18 percent this month to 10.3 million cwt, down about 1 percent from 1999/00. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.8 percent, down 4 percentage points from last months forecast and below a year earliers 19.7 percent. Long grain production is estimated at 131.5 million cwt, up slightly from last months forecast but down more than 13 percent from a year earliers record. Long grain beginning stocks are estimated at 15.6 million cwt, down marginally from last months estimate but up 11 percent from 1999/00. Long grain imports were lowered 250,000 cwt based on deliveries through October. Aromatic rices from South and Southeast Asia account for the bulk of long grain imports. Total supply long grain supply is projected at 155.9 million cwt, up slightly from a month earliers forecast but down more than 10 percent from last year. Total long grain use remains projected at 142 million cwt, down 10 percent from last years record. Domestic use (including residual) remains forecast at 80 million cwt, down more than 8 percent from last years record. Long grain exports remain forecast at 62 million cwt, down 12 percent from last year. Ending stocks are projected at 13.9 million cwt, up nearly 5 percent from last months forecast but almost 11 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest long grain stocks since 1995/96. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 9.8 percent, up slightly from last month and virtually unchanged from 1999/2000. U.S. MONTHLY CASH PRICES ARE THE LOWEST IN 7 YEARS Average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have been well below a year earlier since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated Decembers mid-month price at $5.56 per cwt and lowered Novembers to $5.63 from a preliminary $5.64. Monthly cash prices are currently the lowest in more than 7 years. Since August, reported monthly cash prices have averaged $5.62 per cwt. The 2000/01 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.50 to $6.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month but below a year earliers $6.11. The mid-point of the 2000/01 SAFP range is the lowest since 1986/87. Reported prices for U.S. southern long grain rice have strengthened since late September, primarily in response to tighter supplies and strong rough rice exports. In addition, long grain prices firmed towards the end of the year because producers were holding on to new crop supplies for tax reasons and in hopes of higher prices later in the marketing year. For the week ending January 9, cash prices in Texas and Southwest Louisiana for long grain rough rice were quoted around $6.25 per cwt, up slightly from a month earlier and well above $5.80 reported in mid-November. Prices were reported at slightly more than $5.00 in mid-September. These are the highest reported prices since the start of the 1999/2000 market year. In the Delta, long grain prices were reported at just over $6.20 per cwt for the week ending January 9, up fractionally from last week, but down about 20 cents from late November. Long grain prices were reported around $5.60 per cwt during the peak of harvest in mid-September. Quoted prices for medium grain in California and the South have dropped substantially since the start of the 1999/2000 market year. There has been little reporting of California rough rice prices since November when prices were calculated at a little more than $5.00 per cwt, more than $2 per cwt below reported prices a year earlier. Because the bulk of Californias rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of the milled rice. For the week ending January 9, prices for medium grain rice in the Delta were quoted at about $5 per cwt, down slightly from the start of the market year and about 50 cents below a year earlier. Medium grain prices were reported slightly higher in Southwest Louisiana. A projected record crop in California plus expanded medium grain acreage in the South are behind the lower prices for medium grain rice. INTERNATIONAL RICE PRICES NEARLY UNCHANGED SINCE LATE JULY Thai export prices for high and medium grades of regular milled white rice have traded in a very narrow range since late July. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $191 per ton for the week ending January 8, nearly the same as a month earlier and down only fractionally from late July. Reported Thai prices since late July have been the lowest since the spring of 1993. Prices for Thailands parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were reported at $185 per ton for the week ending January 8, down $5 from a week earlier but virtually unchanged from early December. Prices for parboiled rice have traded in a very narrow range since early September. In contrast to near-steady prices for regular milled rice and parboiled rice, prices for Thailands premium jasmine rice have declined substantially since early August. Prices were reported at $374 per ton for the week ending January 3, down $14 from a month earlier and almost $100 below early November. Prices for Thai jasmine were quoted at $570 per ton in late July. Large supplies and weak international demand are behind the large price drop. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A. 1 Special 100-percent brokens) have risen slightly since early December. Prices were reported at $134 for the week ending January 8, up from $127 a month earlier. Quoted prices for Vietnams 5-percent brokens have remained nearly stable since early December. Prices were quoted at $168 per ton for the week ending January 9, down fractionally from a month earlier. Prices were reported at $180 per ton in early November and $185 in late October. Recovery from flood damage and a lack of major new sales are behind the weaker prices. Vietnams rice is trading about $17 per ton below prices for the same quality of Thai rice, up from $5 or $6 in August and September. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) have remained at $331 per ton since mid-December after steadily dropping since last summer. Prices were quoted at $441 per ton in July but declined to $419 by early August and to $375 by late September. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest since early 1991. The price decline is primarily in response to a record California harvest this year. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, for the domestic market) have remained at $276 per ton since mid-October. Prices had risen since late July, primarily due to large food aid purchases in September and October and a smaller long grain crop this year. Prices were reported at $248 per ton from mid-May until late July after dropping since early 1999. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens has averaged about $85 per ton since mid-October. The difference widened from July through September as U.S. prices increased and the Thai price traded in a very narrow range. For the week ending December 11, the difference was $85 per ton, little changed since mid-October. The difference averaged $50 per ton in 1999/2000. CHINAS 2000/01 RICE CROP LOWERED 3.5 MILLION TONS TO 133 MILLION Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 397.6 million tons (milled basis), down 3 million from last months forecast and more than 2 percent below a year earliers record. Global consumption is projected at a record 403.2 million tons, up fractionally from last month and nearly 2.3 million tons above a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at 59.8 million tons, down 2.9 million from last months forecast and 5.7 million below a year earliers revised record. China accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month reduction in global ending stocks. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 14.8 percent, down from 15.6 percent last month and well below a year earliers revised 16.3 percent. China accounts for the bulk of this months reduction in 2000/01 global rice production. Chinas crop was lowered 3.5 million tons to 133 million (milled basis) based on a 300,000-hectare reduction in harvested area to 30 million hectares. The average yield was lowered fractionally. This is the smallest rice crop for China since 1995/96 and the smallest harvested area in more than 30 years. The reductions were based on recent information from the Government of China. In addition, Turkmenistans crop was lowered 17,000 tons to 18,000 due to smaller plantings and a lower yield. Area and production for Turkmenistan were revised for several back-years as well. The region has suffered a severe drought for the past few years. In contrast, 2000/01 production forecasts were raised for several countries this month. Vietnams production was raised 400,000 tons to 21.1 million tons based on a much higher yield. Despite severe flooding in late summer and early fall, information from the Government of Vietnam indicated a larger 10-month crop. Russias production was raised 85,000 tons to 375,000, the result of a much higher yield. This is the largest rice crop for Russia since 1993/94. Japans crop was raised 16,000 tons to more than 8.6 million based on government data reporting slightly higher area. Finally, the Ukraines rice crop was raised 13,000 tons to 60,000 due to a much higher yield. Global production for 1999/2000 was raised 1.3 million tons to a record 406.2 million. India accounts for nearly all of this months production increase. Indias 1999/2000 crop was raised 1.23 million tons to 89.5 million due to a higher yield. The Government of India reported record production and yield for 1999/2000. In contrast, Turkmenistans crop was lowered 14,000 tons to 21,000 based on a much lower yield. LITTLE GROWTH IN GLOBAL TRADE FORECAST FOR 2001 Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 23.4 million tons (milled), virtually unchanged from last months forecast and nearly the same as a year earliers revised level. Trade for calendar year 2001 is projected to be almost 14 percent below the 1998 record. The only export revision made this month was for the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Exports for the UAE (all transshipments) were raised 50,000 tons to 185,000 based on higher exports in 2000. On the import side, the UAEs imports were raised 50,000 tons to 275,000 based on larger 2000 imports and expectations of higher exports in 2001. Saudi Arabias imports were raised 25,000 tons to a near-record 875,000 based on larger imports in 2000. Finally, Cambodias imports were raised 15,000 tons to 25,000 based on a weak 2000/01 crop and higher imports in 2000. Nearly offsetting these upward revisions were two reductions. Russias 2001 imports were lowered 40,000 tons to 440,000 based on a larger crop. The Ukraines imports were lowered 5,000 tons to 45,000, also based on a larger 2000/01 crop. In contrast, Indonesias imports were lowered 200,000 tons to 1.6 million based on smaller imports in 2000. Global rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at more than 23.3 million tons, up 300,000 from last months forecast but down 7 percent from a year earlier. On the export side, Thailands exports were raised 270,000 tons to 6.57 million based on government data reporting shipments through December. Thailands 2000 exports were just fractionally below the 1999 record. The UAEs exports (all transshipments) were raised 50,000 tons to 185,000 based on government shipment data. In contrast, South Africas exports (all transshipments) were lowered to 25,000 from 50,000 based on shipment data. On the import side Saudi Arabias imports were raised 75,000 tons to a near-record 875,000 based on the deliveries through October. The UAEs imports were raised 50,000 tons to 275,000 based on delivery and shipment data. Finally, Cambodias imports were raised 15,000 tons to 25,000 based on deliveries to date. In contrast, Indonesias imports were lowered 200,000 tons to 1.6 million based on slower than expected deliveries during the second half of the year. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 p.m. Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on February 9, 2000. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. The text of the 2000 Rice Yearbook is available electronically in both PDF and ASCII format. The full report should be published within 2 weeks. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on January 15, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present Table 7-U.S. December 1 Rice Stocks by Type of Rice, 1998 to 2000. ERS on the World Wide Web NOW AVAILABLE--A newly designed, newly structured ERS website ERS newly redesigned and restructured website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. It is greatly expanded--including 19 commodity briefing rooms, 12 country briefing rooms, and a host of issue-oriented rooms, covering issues ranging from analysis of WTO to topics such as risk management, farm structure, and conservation and environmental policies. Powerful new interface design Packed with information, products, and services--yet clean, crisp, and easy to navigate. User-friendly site structure Navigate by topic, research-area emphasis, briefing rooms, publications, or data. Or, browse our features and services Enhanced search feature-- Users may search by key topic or by using an advanced search feature. Synthesis of the extensive research Briefing rooms provide a synthesis of the issues and analysis, along with a full collection of resources specific to a subject, including: Latest publications Latest data products Recommended readings and data products Recent research developments Questions and answers Newsletters Related links Maps and charts gallery Economic models A host of new services Users are able to contact ERS experts, see upcoming events/publications, find ERS research related to whats in the news, and subscribe to E-mail updates. And more! Come visit us and see for yourself! Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.065 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.044 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,278 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 191.1 Imports 8.1 7.7 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.0 Total supply 231.6 212.9 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.6 Food, industrial, & residual 98.3 101.1 97.7 99.2 109.5 117.4 119.0 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.0 Total Domestic use 102.2 104.5 101.6 103.3 114.0 121.4 123.0 Exports 98.8 83.2 78.3 87.7 86.8 89.2 80.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 25.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 72.6 65.6 62.1 61.1 64.0 55.0 Total use 201.0 187.8 179.9 191.0 200.8 210.6 203.0 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 25.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.1 12.6 $/cwt Average farm 5.50 price 6/ to 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 6.11 6.00 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 69.5 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | ------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 5.60 10,925 7.62 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 6.88 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 6.23 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 5.63 12,191 6.11 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 5.56 1/ 11,616 1/ 6.19 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 6.03 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.98 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.82 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.86 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.56 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.59 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.47 9,361 8.26 9,329 | Average 2/ | 5.62 11,616 6.11 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ |5.50-6.00 4/ 6.11 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01 ============================================================================== | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========= |=================================================================== | | $/cwt | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January 1/| 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.58 3.25 3.25 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/991997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 12/28/00 | 12/28/99 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons European Union 254 | 281 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 11 | 17 29 29 28 85 Turkey 159 | 141 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 0 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 185 | 263 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 252 | 336 515 275 242 380 Jordan 16 | 20 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 119 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 86 | 122 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 127 | 126 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 21 15 15 34 33 Ghana 22 | 20 81 58 66 66 Liberia 17 | 3 12 10 8 9 South Africa 55 | 56 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 597 | 554 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 0 | 3 2 556 29 9 Canada 74 | 74 184 176 177 170 Colombia 2 | 0 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 1 | 24 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 7 | 0 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 10 | 5 42 28 28 35 Haiti 61 | 59 201 225 183 152 Honduras 47 | 36 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 20 | 19 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 3 | 5 6 12 21 16 Mexico 290 | 237 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 50 | 42 89 68 40 51 Panama 0 | 0 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 18 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 16 | 21 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 7 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 2/ 1,599 | 1,776 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Total Census Bureau 2,520 2/ | 2,800 2/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 Difference 3/ | 342 4 274 240 405 460 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled Final are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled as of are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. 3/ Difference between final exports reported by Census and U.S. Table 5-U.S. and Thailand milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/00 284 454 395 230 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 331 364 191 185 175 153 134 169 2000/01 9/ 268 369 364 191 194 174 156 136 176 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.252 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.235 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,883 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 131.5 Imports 6.9 6.4 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 8.8 Total supply 155.4 142.5 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 155.9 Domestic use 4/ 59.6 66.9 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 80.0 Exports 81.4 65.5 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 62.0 Total use 141.0 132.4 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 142.0 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 13.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 9.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.813 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.809 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,371 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 59.6 Imports 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.5 73.1 71.7 59.4 63.2 73.4 Domestic use 4/ 41.9 37.7 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 43.0 Exports 17.5 17.7 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 18.0 Total use 59.4 55.4 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 61.0 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 12.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.6 25.8 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 20.6 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 0.9 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Table 7-U.S. December 1 Rice Stocks by Type of Rice, 1998 to 2000 ================================================================== | Rice type |1997 1998 1999 2000 ================================================================== | Million cwt | All rice |132.5 128.8 146.0 143.0 | Long grain | 83.3 88.7 100.3 87.8 | Medium grain | 46.3 37.1 40.7 50.4 | Short grain | 1.6 1.9 3.5 2.9 | Medium/short | 47.9 39.0 44.2 53.3 | Brokens | 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.9 ================================================================= 1/ Rough equivalent of rough and milled rice stocks. Sources: Rough and milled rice stocks, January Rice Stocks, 1998, 2000, and 2001, NASS/USDA. Annual milling rates calculated from milling data provided By the Rice Millers Association. END_OF_FILE