RICE OUTLOOK February 09, 2001 February 2001, ERS-RCS-0201 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: The U.S. 1999/2000 season-average farm price was lowered 18 cents to $5.93 per hundredweight (cwt) based on revised monthly prices reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. There were no revisions this month to the 2000/01 U.S. rice supply projections.The U.S. 2000/01 rice export forecast was raised 1 million cwt to 81 million (rough basis), based on the shipments to date. Rough rice accounts for all of the increase. The U.S. 2000/01 season-average farm price is projected at $5.50 to $5.90 per cwt, down 10 cents on the high end from a month earlier. U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks were lowered 1 million cwt to 24.6 million (rough basis), a result of higher exports. Long grain accounted for all of the reduction in ending stocks. Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 397.8 million tons (milled basis), up fractionally from last month’s forecast. Australia’s and Cambodia’s were crops raised. Import projections for calendar year 2001 were raised for Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and China, but lowered for Indonesia and the Philippines. Total trade was virtually unchanged. Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 60.7 million tons, up 1 million from last month’s forecast but 5.2 million below a year earlier’s record. U.S. 2000/01 TOTAL SUPPLY REMAINS PROJECTED AT 228.6 MILLION CWT There were no revisions this month to the U.S. 2000/01 supply projections. The 2000 U.S. rice crop remains projected at 191.1 million cwt, down more than 7 percent from a year earlier’s record. A 13-percent decline in plantings to 3.07 million acres is behind the reduction. In contrast to smaller area, the average yield is estimated at a record 6,278 pounds per acre, up 412 pounds from a year earlier and 158 pounds higher than the prior record achieved in 1996. Total production in 2000 declined in every State except California. The State harvested a record 43.6-million cwt crop, a result of larger area and a higher yield. The Arkansas crop is estimated at 86 million cwt, nearly 10 percent below a year earlier’s record, a result of weaker plantings. Louisiana harvested a 24.4-million cwt crop, down 6.4 million from the 1999 record as smaller plantings more than offset a slightly higher yield. A 33-percent reduction in plantings was behind a 5.4- million cwt drop in Mississippi’s production to 12.9 million. Missouri’s crop, at 9.9 million cwt, was down fractionally from a year earlier’s record as a higher yield almost offset weaker plantings. Even with a record yield, Texas’ production declined 6 percent to 14.3 million cwt. Rice plantings in Texas were the lowest in more than 60 years. Beginning stocks for 2000/01 remain projected at 27.5 million cwt, up more than 24 percent from a year earlier. Imports remain projected at 10 million cwt, down fractionally from 1999/2000. The majority of rice imports are aromatic varieties from Thailand, India, and Pakistan. Total supply remains projected at 228.6 million cwt, down nearly 9.6 million from the 1999/2000 record. The decline stems from a nearly 15-million-cwt decline in production, which was partially offset by a 5.4-million-cwt increase in beginning stocks. U.S. 2000/01 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED 1 MILLION CWT TO 81 MILLION Total use (including residual, or unaccounted losses in processing, transporting, and marketing) in 2000/01 is projected at 204 million cwt, up 1 million from a month earlier but more than 3 percent below a year earlier’s record. Exports account for all of the month-to-month increase, total domestic use remains projected at a record 123 million cwt, up about 1 percent from a year earlier. Total U.S. rice exports are projected at 81 million cwt, up 1 million from last month’s forecast but almost 9 percent below a year earlier. Rough rice accounts for all of the increase in exports this month. Rough exports are projected at 26 million cwt, up 1 million from last month’s forecast and virtually tied with the 1997/98 record. Long grain accounts for all of the month-to-month increase in rough rice exports. The increase was based on the pace of rough rice shipments--mostly to Mexico and Central America--through January. Milled exports remain projected at 55 million cwt (rough equivalent), down nearly 14 percent from a year earlier. Large global supplies and intense competition for export markets are behind expectations of weaker U.S. milled rice exports in 2000/01. Through February 1, U.S. Export Sales reported combined exports and outstanding sales of all rice at 1.92 million tons (product- weight basis), down nearly 11 percent from last year. Total exports were reported at 1.34 million cwt, down almost 16 percent from a year earlier. Milled rice accounts for nearly all of the year-to-year decline in shipments to date. In contrast, outstanding sales were reported at 573,200 cwt, up more than 3 percent from a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 24.6 million cwt, down 1 million from last month’s forecast and nearly 11 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered more than half a percentage point to 12.1 percent, down from 13 percent a year earlier. LONG GRAIN ENDING STOCKS LOWERED 7 PERCENT TO 12.9 MILLION CWT U.S. long grain production remains projected at 131.5 million cwt, down more than 13 percent from a year earlier’s record. Beginning long grain stocks are estimated at 15.6 million cwt, up 11 percent from 1999/2000. Long grain imports remain projected at 8.8 million cwt, 16 percent above a year earlier. Total long grain supply is projected at 155.9 million cwt, more than 10 percent below the 1999/2000 record. U.S. 2000/01 long grain exports are projected at 63 million cwt, up 1 million from last month’s projection but 11 percent below a year earlier. Domestic use (including residual) remains projected at 80 million cwt, more than 7 million cwt below last year. Long grain ending stocks were lowered 1 million cwt to 12.9 million, more than 17 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered almost 1 percentage point to 9 percent, down from 9.9 percent from a year earlier. Both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are the lowest since 1995/96. There were no revisions to the 2000/01 medium/short grain supply and use projections this month. Beginning stocks for 2000/01 remain estimated at 10.4 million cwt, well above the 6.8 million from a year earlier. Medium/short grain production--the bulk of which is grown in California--remains estimated at 59.6 million cwt, 10 percent above a year earlier. A record crop in California is the main factor behind this year-to-year increase. Medium/short grain imports are projected at 1.2 million cwt, down 53 percent from 1999/2000. Total medium/short grain use is projected at 61 million cwt, more than 15 percent above a year earlier. This year-to-year change stems from a nearly 24 percent increase in domestic and residual, which is projected at 43 million cwt. Exports are projected at 18 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 10.3 million cwt, nearly 2 percent below last year. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.8 percent, well below last year’s 19.7. U.S. 2000/01 PROJECTED PRICE RANGE LOWERED SLIGHTLY The 2000/01 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.50 to $5.90 per cwt, down 10 cents on the high end from a month earlier. The revision was based on reported monthly cash prices through mid-January. The mid-point of the 2000/01 SAFP range is the lowest since 1986/87. The 1999/2000 SAFP was lowered 18 cents to $5.93 per cwt, a result of revisions in reported monthly cash prices by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have been well below a year earlier since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated January’s mid-month price at $5.69 per cwt and raised December’s to $5.60 from a preliminary $5.56. Since August, reported monthly cash prices have averaged $5.64 per cwt. In the Delta, quoted prices for U.S. long grain rice have declined since late January, primarily a response to large post- harvest supplies. For the week ending February 6, cash prices in the Delta for long grain rough rice were quoted around $5.80 per cwt, down slightly from a week earlier but almost 50 cents below quotes in mid-January. In Texas and Southwest Louisiana, long grain prices have dropped only fractionally since mid-January, a result of tight supplies. Prices for Texas long grain rice were quoted at around $6.35 to $6.40 per cwt for the week ending February 6, down a few cents from mid-January. Prices in Southwest Louisiana were reported at $6.25, down a few cents from mid-January. Quoted prices for medium grain in the Delta have dropped substantially since the start of the 1999/2000 market year. For the week ending February 6, medium grain rough rice prices in the Delta were quoted at $4.50 per cwt, down 50 cents from a month earlier and almost $1.50 below a year earlier. There has been little reporting of California rough rice prices since November when prices were calculated at a little more than $5.00 per cwt, more than $2 per cwt below reported prices a year earlier. Because the bulk of California’s rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of the milled rice. INTERNATIONAL PRICES REMAIN WEAK Thai export prices for high and medium grades of regular milled white rice have traded in a very narrow range since late July. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $193 per ton for the week ending February 5, up $3 from a month earlier but down $2 to $3 from late July. Reported Thai prices since late July have been the lowest since the spring of 1993. Prices for Thailand’s parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were reported at $187 per ton for the week ending February 5, down $2 from a week earlier but virtually unchanged from early December. Prices for parboiled rice have traded in a very narrow range since early September. In contrast to near-steady prices for regular milled rice and parboiled rice, prices for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice have declined substantially since late July. Prices were reported at $368 per ton for the week ending February 5, down $6 from a month earlier and more than $100 below reported prices in early November. Prices for Thai jasmine were quoted at $570 per ton in late July. Large supplies and little growth in international demand are behind the large price drop. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A.1 Special 100-percent brokens) have risen slightly since early December. Prices were reported at $137 for the week ending February 5, up from $134 a month earlier and $127 in early December. Quoted prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent brokens have remained nearly stable since early December. Prices were quoted at $168 per ton for the week ending February 5, virtually unchanged from a month earlier and just fractionally below reported prices in December. These prices are below levels reported last summer and fall. Recovery from flood damage and a lack of major new sales are behind the weaker prices. Vietnam’s rice is currently trading about $16 per ton below prices for the same quality of Thai rice, up from $5 or $6 in August and September. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, for the domestic market) have remained at $276 per ton since mid-October. Prices had risen since late July, primarily due to large food aid purchases in September and October and a smaller long grain crop this year. Prices were reported at $248 per ton from mid-May until late July after dropping since early 1999. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was $83 per ton in early February, down $2 to $3 from last month but well above levels reported last spring and summer. The difference widened from July through September as U.S. prices increased and the Thai price traded in a very narrow range. The difference has averaged about $83 per ton. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) were reported at $298 per ton in early February, down from $325 in mid-January and $331 in early January. Prices have been dropping since last summer. Prices were quoted at $441 per ton in July but declined to $419 by early August and to $375 by late September. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest in more than a decade. The price decline is primarily in response to a record California harvest this year. GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION PROJECTED TO DROP 2 PERCENT IN 2000/01 Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 397.8 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast but more than 2 percent below a year earlier’s record. Global consumption is projected at a record 403 million tons, down fractionally from last month but 2.3 million tons above a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at 60.7 million tons, up 1 million from last month’s forecast but 5.2 million below a year earlier’s record. China accounts for the bulk of the month-to- month increase in global ending stocks. The resulting stocks-to- use ratio is 15.1 percent, up slightly from last month but well below a year earlier’s revised 16.5 percent. Upward revisions in global 2000/01 production were virtually offset by reductions this month. Australia’s crop was raised 172,000 tons to a record 1.14 million (milled basis) due to greater plantings and a higher yield. Water allocations were increased this year and the weather has been quite favorable. Cambodia’s production was raised 94,000 tons to 2.4 million due to a much higher yield. Area was actually reduced. In contrast, Portugal’s 2000/01 production was reduced to 90,000 tons based on government data reporting lower plantings and weaker yield. Finally, Uzbekistan’s production was lowered 17,000 tons to 83,000 due to a much lower yield. Area was raised slightly. Global production for 1999/2000 was raised fractionally to a record 406.3 million tons. Cambodia accounts for all of the increase. Cambodia’s crop was raised 145,000 tons to more than 2.5 million, a record. The increase was due to a much higher yield. Area was lowered slightly. INDONESIA’S 2000 AND 2001 IMPORT FORECASTS LOWERED Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 23.4 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast but up fractionally from a year earlier’s revised level. Trade for calendar year 2001 is projected to be almost 15 percent below the 1998 record. The only export revision made this month was for Australia. Exports from Australia were raised 50,000 tons to a record 675,000 based on a much larger 2000/01 crop. On the import side, Iraq’s imports were raised 300,000 tons to a record 1.3 million based on larger 2000 imports. Saudi Arabia’s imports were raised 100,000 tons to a record 975,000, also based on larger imports in 2000. China’s imports were raised 50,000 tons to 300,000 based on revised imports in 2000. Finally, Uzbekistan’s imports were raised 17,000 tons to 142,000 based on a weaker 2000/01 crop. Nearly offsetting these upward revisions were several reductions. Indonesia’s 2001 imports were lowered 300,000 tons to 1.3 million based on weaker imports in 2000. The Philippines’ imports were lowered 50,000 tons to 650,000 based on recent delays in purchases and government announcements regarding 2001 import needs. Finally, Portugal’s imports were lowered 5,000 tons to 120,000 based on weaker trade in 2000. Global rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at nearly 23.3 million tons, down almost 100,000 from last month’s forecast and almost 8 percent below a year earlier. Nearly all 2000 trade revisions were based on end-of-year data. On the export side, China’s exports were lowered 250,000 tons to 2.95 million; Brazil’s reduced 29,000 tons to 21,000; and Thailand’s dropped 21,000 tons to 6.55 million. In contrast, Vietnam’s 2000 exports were raised 170,000 tons to 3.37 million and Australia’s 42,000 tons to 617,000. Indonesia accounts for the bulk of this month’s reduction in 2000 imports. Indonesia’s imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 1.5 million based on the pace of arrivals through September. In addition, Portugal’s imports were lowered 31,000 tons to 94,000 and Singapore’s were lowered 15,000 tons to 335,000. Almost offsetting these reductions were several upward revisions. Iraq’s imports were raised 261,000 tons to 1.26 million (a record to date). Nigeria’s 2000 imports were revised up 225,000 tons to a record 1.2 million. China’s imports were raised 80,000 tons to 280,000; Saudi Arabia’s increased 75,000 tons to 950,000; and Malaysia’s revised up 50,000 tons to 650,000. Smaller increases were made for the United States, Cuba, and Australia. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on March 9, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605- 6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on February 12, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present ERS on the World Wide Web NOW AVAILABLE--A newly designed, newly structured ERS website ERS’ newly redesigned and restructured website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. 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Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.065 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.044 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,278 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 191.1 Imports 8.1 7.7 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.0 Total supply 231.6 212.9 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.6 Food, industrial, & residual 98.3 101.1 97.7 99.2 109.5 117.4 119.0 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.0 Total Domestic use 102.2 104.5 101.6 103.3 114.0 121.4 123.0 Exports 98.8 83.2 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 81.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 25.0 Milled 5/ 79.6 72.6 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 55.0 Total use 201.0 187.8 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 204.0 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 12.1 $/cwt Average farm 5.50 price 6/ to 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.90 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 69.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 2000/01 1999/2000 1998/99 Month | ---------------- ----------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | August | 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 5.78 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 5.69 1/ 11,778 1/ 6.02 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.88 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.71 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.75 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.63 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.80 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.65 9,361 8.26 9,329 | | Average 2/ | 5.64 11,778 5.93 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ |5.50-5.90 4/ 6.11 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month. The 1999/2000 season-average price is based on update marketing weights that will be released in July. Revised monthly prices for 1999/2000 are included in this table. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01, rough basis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | $/cwt | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2 | 3.54 3.23 3.22 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4--U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 02/01/01 | 02/01/00 Final Final Final Final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 273 | 321 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 12 | 17 29 29 28 85 Turkey 175 | 169 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 0 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 251 | 334 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 278 | 384 515 275 242 380 Jordan 17 | 20 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 118 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 107 | 167 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 132 | 148 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 20 15 15 34 33 Ghana 29 | 50 81 58 66 66 Liberia 17 | 3 12 10 8 9 South Africa 55 | 68 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 795 | 719 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 0 | 4 2 556 29 9 Canada 85 | 81 184 176 177 170 Colombia 2 | 0 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 1 | 24 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 8 | 32 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 19 | 14 42 28 28 35 Haiti 74 | 77 201 225 183 152 Honduras 64 | 52 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 20 | 19 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 3 | 8 6 12 21 16 Mexico 407 | 306 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 55 | 43 89 68 40 51 Panama 0 | 4 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 19 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 35 | 24 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 6 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 2/ 1,916 | 2,149 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 | Total Census Bureau 2,550 2/ | 2,800 2/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 Difference 3/ | 342 4 274 240 405 460 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled ‘Final’ are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled ‘as of’ are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. 3/ Difference between final exports reported by Census and U.S. Table 5--U.S. and Thailand milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/00 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 9/ 276 298 364 193 187 178 156 137 168 2000/01 9/ 268 357 364 191 193 174 156 136 174 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.252 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.235 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,883 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 131.5 Imports 6.9 6.4 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 8.8 Total supply 155.5 142.5 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 155.9 Domestic use 4/ 59.7 66.9 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 80.0 Exports 81.4 65.5 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 63.0 Total use 141.1 132.4 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 143.0 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 12.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 9.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.813 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.809 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,371 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 59.6 Imports 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.7 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 71.3 Domestic use 4/ 41.8 37.7 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 43.0 Exports 17.5 17.7 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 18.0 Total use 59.2 55.4 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 61.0 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 10.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.6 25.8 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 16.8 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. Rice Outlook RCS-0201 February 9, 2001 ERS/USDA END_OF_FILE