RICE OUTLOOK March 09, 2001 March 2001, ERS-RCS-0301 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: There were no changes to the 2000/01 U.S. rice supply and use projections. The U.S. 2000/01 season-average farm price is projected at $5.60 to $5.80 per hundredweight (cwt), a narrowing of 10 cents on the high and low end. Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 399.3 million tons (milled basis), up 1.5 million from last month’s forecast. Bangladesh accounts for most of the increase. Global trade for 2001 is projected at 22.7 million tons (milled basis), down 3 percent from last month’s forecast. Bangladesh, Brazil, Turkey, Chile, and Costa Rica accounted for most of the reduction in imports. Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at nearly 60.7 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but 4.4 million tons below a year earlier’s record. U.S. RICE SUPPLIES REMAIN PROJECTED AT 228.6 MILLION CWT There were no changes made this month to the 2000/01 U.S. rice supply and use projections. Beginning stocks are projected at 27.5 million cwt (rough equivalent), up more than 24 percent from a year earlier. Production remains estimated at 191.1 million cwt, down more than 7 percent from last year’s record. Imports are forecast at 10 million cwt, marginally below a year earlier and down nearly 6 percent from the 1998/99 record. Total supply for 2000/01 is projected at 228.6 million cwt, down 4 percent from a year earlier’s record. Total use remains projected at 204 million cwt, down from a year earlier’s record of 210.7 million. Total exports are projected at 81 million cwt, down nearly 9 percent from a year earlier. Milled rice accounts for all of the reduction. Milled exports remain projected at 55 million cwt, down nearly 14 percent from 1999/2000. In contrast, rough exports are projected at 26 million cwt, up 3 percent from last year and just fractionally below the 1997/98 record. Total domestic disappearance (including the residual, or unreported losses in handling, marketing, and processing) is projected at a record 123 million cwt. Ending stocks remain projected at 24.6 million cwt, down nearly 11 percent from 1999/2000. The stocks-to-use ratio is unchanged at 12.1 percent, down from 13 percent last year. U.S. ROUGH RICE EXPORTS CONTINUE STRONG Through March 1, U.S. Export Sales reported total commitments (combined exports and outstanding sales) of all rice at 2.2 million tons (product-weight basis), down almost 7 percent from a year earlier. Outstanding sales were reported at 594,600 tons, almost 35 percent ahead of a year earlier. Outstanding sales were well ahead of a year earlier to Mexico and Central America, but behind to Japan, South Africa, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, total exports through March 1 were reported at 1.6 million tons, down 16 percent from a year earlier. Through March 1, reported shipments of all rice were behind a year earlier’s pace to the European Union, Japan, South Africa, Ghana, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Combined milled and brown rice accounts for all of the slower shipment pace to date. Through March 1, reported combined milled and brown rice shipments were 22 percent behind a year earlier. Total commitments of rough rice were reported ahead of a year earlier’s pace. Through March 1, total commitments of rough rice were nearly 12 percent ahead of a year earlier, with Mexico and Central America accounting for most of the gain. In contrast, total commitments of rough rice were behind a year earlier to Turkey, the largest market for U.S. medium grain rough rice. LONG GRAIN SUPPLIES REMAIN PROJECTED AT 155.9 MILLION CWT Total long grain supply for 2000/01 remains projected at 155.9 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier’s record and the lowest since 1997/98. A smaller 2000 long grain crop is behind the smaller supplies. The long grain crop is estimated at 131.5 million cwt, down more than 13 percent from a year earlier’s record. Beginning stocks are estimated at 15.6 million cwt, up 11 percent from last year and the largest since 1993/94. Total long grain use is projected at 143 million cwt, down 9 percent from a year earlier. The reduction is the result of a decline in both domestic disappearance (including residual) and exports of long grain rice. Domestic utilization in 2000/01 is projected at 80 million cwt, down more than 7 million cwt from a year earlier. Long grain exports are projected at 63 million cwt, down 11 percent from 1999/2000. Milled rice accounts for all of the projected decline in long grain exports. Long grain ending stocks are projected at 12.9 million cwt, more than 17 percent lower than a year earlier and the lowest since 1995/96. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 9 percent, down more than a percentage point. Total supply of U.S. medium/short grain rice is projected at 71.3 million cwt, up nearly 13 percent from last year. Medium/short grain production is estimated at 59.6 million cwt, up 10 percent from last year. A record crop in California--where the bulk of the U.S. medium/short grain rice is grown--is the primary factor behind the larger production. Domestic medium/short grain utilization (including residual) is projected at 43 million cwt, up from 34.8 million last year. Much lower medium grain prices this year and a tight long grain supply situation are responsible for higher medium/short grain domestic use. Medium/short grain exports are projected at 18 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Total medium/short utilization is projected at 61 million cwt. Ending stocks are projected at 10.3 million cwt, down about 2 percent from last year. The medium/short grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.8 percent, down from 19.7 percent last year. U.S. 2000/01 SEASON-AVERAGE PRICE RANGE NARROWED SLIGHTLY The 2000/01 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.60 to $5.80 per cwt, a narrowing of 10 cents on both the high and low end from a month earlier. The revision was based on reported monthly cash prices through mid-February. The mid-point of the 2000/01 SAFP range, unchanged from last month, is the lowest since 1986/87. Average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have been well below a year earlier since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated February’s mid-month price at $5.69 per cwt and raised January’s to $5.84 from a preliminary $5.69. Since August, reported monthly cash prices have averaged $5.67 per cwt. In the Delta, quoted prices for U.S. long grain rough rice have shown little movement since late January. For the week ending March 6, cash prices in the Delta for long grain rough rice were quoted around $6.00 per cwt, up slightly from a week earlier but virtually unchanged from late-January. Long grain prices were reported a little higher in Texas and Southwest Louisiana. In Texas, long grain prices were quoted at $6.35 per cwt in early March, virtually unchanged since mid-January. In Southwest Louisiana, long grain prices were quoted at $6.10 per cwt, down 15 to 20 cents from a month earlier. Quoted prices for medium grain rough rice in the Delta have dropped substantially since the start of the 2000/01 market year, primarily due to much larger supplies. For the week ending March 6, medium grain rough rice prices in the Delta were quoted at less than $4.00 per cwt, down more than 50 cents a month earlier and almost $1.50 below prices reported in late September when the medium grain harvest began in the Delta. In California, rough rice prices were calculated at less than $4.00 per cwt for the week ending March 6, down more than $4 from a year earlier. Because the bulk of California’s rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of the milled rice. A record California harvest this year is behind the substantial drop in prices. INTERNATIONAL PRICES DROP ON LACK OF NEW SALES, LARGE SUPPLIES Thai export prices for nearly all grades of regular milled and parboiled rice have dropped since early February, primarily in response to a lack of new sales and large global supplies. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $186 per ton for the week ending March 5, down $7 from a month earlier. Reported Thai prices are currently the lowest in nearly 15 years. Even with the recent drop, prices have still traded within a narrow range since late July. Prices for Thailand’s parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were reported at $178 per ton for the week ending March 5, down almost $10 from a month earlier and the lowest in 14 years. A slowdown in sales to Nigeria--a major buyer of parboiled rice--is largely responsible for the recent decline in parboiled prices. Prices for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice have plummeted since late July, primarily due to large supplies and weaker global demand. Prices were reported at $330 per ton for the week ending March 5, down $38 from a month earlier and more than $200 below reported prices in mid-October. Prices for Thai jasmine were quoted at $570 per ton in late July. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A.1 Special 100-percent brokens) have dropped since early February. Prices were reported at $131 for the week ending March 5, down from $137 a month earlier. Quoted prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent brokens have dropped since late February after remaining nearly stable since late December. Prices were quoted at $155 per ton for the week ending March 5, down from $168 a month earlier. Expectations of a large winter- spring crop in Vietnam, a lack of fresh demand, and large global supplies are behind the recent price drop. Vietnam’s rice is currently trading about $25 per ton below prices for similar quality Thai rice, up from $20 a month earlier and just $5 or $6 in August and September. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, for the domestic market) have remained at $276 per ton since mid-October. The difference between Thai 100- percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was $90 per ton in early March, up from $83 from a month earlier and an average of $54 in 1999/2000. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) were reported at $287 per ton in early March, down $11 from a month earlier. Prices have been dropping since last summer. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest since 1987. The price decline is primarily in response to a record California crop. BANGLADESH’S CROP PROJECTIONS RAISED FOR 1999/2000 AND 2000/01 Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 399.3 million tons (milled basis), up 1.5 million from last month’s forecast but 2 percent below a year earlier’s record. Global consumption is projected at a record 403.6 million tons, up almost 700,000 tons from last month’s forecast and fractionally above a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at almost 60.7 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast but 4.4 million tons below a year earlier’s revised record. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15 percent, virtually unchanged from last month but below a year earlier’s revised 16.1 percent. Bangladesh accounts for the bulk of this month’s upward revision in global 2000/01 production. Bangladesh’s crop was raised 2.7 million tons to a record 24 million (milled basis), a result of both greater plantings and a higher yield. Production in the Philippines was raised 212,000 tons to a record 8.1 million tons due to a 169,000-hectare increase in area to a record of more than 4 million. Australia’s crop was raised 107,000 tons to a record 1.25 million due to greater plantings-- estimated at a record 185,000 hectares. Chile’s 2000/01 production was raised 37,000 tons to 76,000 based on much higher plantings. Smaller production increases were made this month for Malaysia, Turkey, and France. Partially offsetting these increases were several crop reductions. India’s 2000/01 production was lowered 1.5 million tons to 87 million due to a lower yield. Italy’s crop was reduced 112,000 tons to 728,000, a result of a much lower yield. Guatemala’s production was lowered 2,000 tons to 23,000 due to a weaker yield. Global production in 1999/2000 is estimated at a record 407.8 million tons (milled basis), up 1.4 million from last month’s forecast. Bangladesh accounts for the bulk of the upward revision. Production in Bangladesh was raised more than 1.5 million tons to nearly 23.1 million due to larger plantings-- estimated at a record 10.7 million hectares--and a higher yield. Chile’s 1999/2000 production was raised 29,000 tons to 68,000 due to a much larger area. Finally, Australia’s crop was raised 12,000 tons to 787,000 due to larger plantings. Note that area and production revisions were made for Australia back to 1995/96. These 1999/2000 production increases were partially offset by several reductions. Brazil’s 1999/2000 production was lowered 75,000 tons to 7.77 million tons due to a lower yield. Malaysia’s production was lowered 75,000 tons to 1.29 million, also due to a weaker yield. Finally, Italy’s production was lowered 10,000 tons to 840,000 due to a lower yield. IMPORT PROJECTIONS LOWERED FOR BANGLADESH AND BRAZIL Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 22.7 million tons (milled basis), down 3 percent from last month’s forecast and about 200,000 tons below 2000’s revised level. Trade for calendar year 2001 is projected to be 18 percent below the 1998 record of 27.7 million tons. India’s 2001 exports were lowered 200,000 tons this month to 1.1 million based on smaller imports by Bangladesh and uncompetitive prices. Guyana’s exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 175,000 based on weaker imports in 2000 and a lack of competitiveness. Argentina’s exports were reduced 50,000 tons to 200,000--the smallest in nearly a decade, based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Argentina. Production in Argentina in 2000/01 is down 28 percent from a year earlier. Venezuela’s exports were lowered 30,000 tons to 80,000; Surinam’s reduced 25,000 tons to 25,000; and Taiwan’s dropped 25,000 tons to 125,000. All three reductions were based on weaker exports in 2000. In contrast, Italy’s exports were raised 180,000 tons to 630,000 based on higher exports in 2000. Please note, transshipments by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are no longer included as imports and exports from the UAE. For 2001 and 2000, UAE exports were reduced 185,000 tons to zero and imports dropped 200,000 tons to 75,000. Note back-year changes as well. On the import side, Bangladesh’s imports were lowered 400,000 tons to 250,000 based on a much larger 2000/01 crop. Brazil’s 2001 imports were reduced 200,000 tons to 500,000 based on much weaker consumption growth and smaller 2000 imports. Turkey’s imports were lowered 75,000 tons to 300,000 based on a slightly larger crop and adequate supplies. Chile’s imports were reduced 50,000 tons to 60,000 based on a much larger crop. Costa Rica’s imports were reduced 40,000 tons to 55,000 and Panama’s lowered 33,000 to 2,000. Both reductions were due to reduced 2000 imports. Smaller reductions were made for Ghana, Syria, and Jamaica as well. Partially offsetting these reductions were several increases. Malaysia’s 2001 imports were raised 50,000 tons to 600,000 based on higher 2000 imports. Colombia’s imports were raised 45,000 tons to 110,000 based on an announced tender. Imports by Italy-- a net exporter--were raised 40,000 tons to 60,000 based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Italy. Smaller import increases were made for Eastern Europe, Canada, and Haiti. Global rice trade for calendar year 2000 is projected at nearly 22.9 million tons, down almost 2 percent from last month’s forecast and more than 8 percent below a year earlier. Nearly all 2000 trade revisions were based on shipment data. On the export side, Guyana’s exports were lowered 133,000 tons to 167,000. In addition, Venezuela’s exports were reduced 40,000 tons to 70,000; Burma’s dropped 23,000 tons to 277,000; Surinam’s dropped 25,000 tons to 25,000; and Taiwan’s cut 25,000 tons to 125,000. In contrast, Pakistan’s 2000 exports were raised 150,000 tons to a record 2 million and Italy’s increased 135,000 tons to 625,000. On the import side, Bangladesh’s 2000 imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 600,000 based on much larger 1999/2000 and 2000/01 crops and shipment data. Brazil’s imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 600,000 based on shipment data and lower consumption estimates. South Africa’s imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 475,000 based on shipment data. Chile’s imports were lowered 45,000 tons to 65,000 based on larger production. Smaller import reductions were made for Panama, Ghana, Syria, and Colombia. All were based on shipment data. In contrast, Italy’s 2000 imports were raised 35,000 tons to 55,000 based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Italy. Canada’s imports were raised 10,000 tons to 250,000; Singapore’s raised 19,000 tons to 354,000; and Haiti’s raised 10,000 tons to 245,000. Finally, Malaysia’s imports were raised 8,000 tons to 658,000 based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Malaysia. There were several revisions to 1999 trade data this month based on final trade data. Guyana’s exports were lowered 48,000 tons to 252,000 and India’s raised 198,000 tons to 2.75 million. On the import side, Indonesia’s were lowered 171,000 tons to 3.73 million and North Korea’s dropped 141,000 tons to 159,000. In contrast, Iran’s 1999 imports were raised 286,000 tons to more than 1.3 million. ----------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on April 11, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605- 6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on March 12, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present Introduced in January: A re-designed and re-engineered ERS website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy- to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. The website includes 16 commodity Briefing Rooms, 12 country Briefing Rooms, and a host of issue-oriented Briefing Rooms covering issues ranging from analysis of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to topics such as risk management, farm structure, and conservation and environmental policies. Powerful new interface design Packed with information, products, and services--yet clean, crisp, and easy to navigate. User-friendly site structure Navigate by topic, research-area emphasis, Briefing Rooms, publications, or data. Or. Browse our features and services. Enhanced search feature Users may search by key topic or by using an advanced search feature. Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================= 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 0.0 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.353 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.065 Harvested 3.316 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.044 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,278 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 Production 197.8 173.9 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 191.1 Imports 8.1 7.7 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.0 Total supply 231.6 212.9 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.6 Food, industrial, & residual 97.6 101.1 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 119.0 Seed 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.0 Total Domestic use 101.5 104.6 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 123.0 Exports 98.8 83.2 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 81.0 Rough 18.5 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 26.0 Milled 5/ 80.3 72.6 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 55.0 Total use 201.3 187.8 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 204.0 Ending stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.6 13.3 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 12.1 $/cwt Average farm 5.60 price 6/ to 6.78 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.80 Percent Average milling rate 74.1 71.4 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 69.5 ============================================================================= N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ============================================================================= | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | ---------------- -------------------- --------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 5.78 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.69 1/ 12,326 1/ 5.88 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.71 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.75 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.63 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.80 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.65 9,361 8.26 9,329 | Average 2/ | 5.67 12,326 5.93 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ |5.60-5.80 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month. The 1999/2000 season-average price is based on updated marketing weights that will be released in July. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01 ============================================================================= | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ----------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ==========|================================================================== | $/cwt | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March 1/ | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.52 3.22 3.21 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 03/01/01 | 03/01/00 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================= | 1,000 metric tons European Union 304 | 325 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 13 | 17 29 29 28 85 Turkey 196 | 187 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 0 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 276 | 360 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 267 | 393 515 275 242 380 Jordan 3 | 20 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 118 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 108 | 174 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 138 | 169 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 20 15 15 34 33 Ghana 35 | 55 81 58 66 66 Liberia 17 | 3 12 10 8 9 South Africa 55 | 84 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,000 | 846 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 0 | 4 2 556 29 9 Canada 92 | 86 184 176 177 170 Colombia 3 | 0 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 59 | 53 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 21 | 33 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 27 | 22 42 28 28 35 Haiti 85 | 84 201 225 183 152 Honduras 77 | 60 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 20 | 19 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 3 | 9 6 12 21 16 Mexico 474 | 348 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 67 | 55 89 68 40 51 Panama 0 | 8 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 19 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 45 | 32 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 9 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 2/ 2,196 | 2,355 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 | Total Census Bureau 2,550 2/ | 2,800 2/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 Difference 3/ | 342 4/ 274 240 405 460 ============================================================================= N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. 3/ Difference between final exports reported by Census and U.S. Export Sales. 4/ Average difference 1996/97 to 1999/2000. Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ ------------------------- ---------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A1 7/brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ============================================================================= $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 9/ 276 287 364 186 178 169 146 131 155 2000/01 9/ 270 347 364 190 191 173 154 135 171 ============================================================================= NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Item 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.410 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.252 Harvested 2.379 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.235 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,883 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 Production 133.4 121.7 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 131.5 Imports 6.9 6.4 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 8.8 Total supply 155.4 142.5 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 155.9 Domestic use 4/ 59.6 66.9 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 80.0 Exports 81.4 65.5 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 63.0 Total use 141.0 132.4 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 143.0 Ending stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 12.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 10.2 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 9.0 MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.943 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.813 Harvested 0.937 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.809 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,866 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,371 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 Production 64.3 52.1 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 59.6 Imports 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 Total supply 5/ 75.0 69.7 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 71.3 Domestic use 4/ 41.9 37.7 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 43.0 Exports 17.5 17.7 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 18.0 Total use 59.4 55.4 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 61.0 Ending stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 10.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 26.6 25.8 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 16.8 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 ============================================================================= 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE