RICE OUTLOOK April 11, 2001 April 2001, ERS-RCS-0401 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o In March, U.S. rice farmers indicated they intend to plant almost 3.1 million acres of rice in 2001, up almost 1 percent from 2000. The 2000/01 U.S. milling rate was raised to 70.5 percent from 69.5. o The 2000/01 U.S. rough rice crop was lowered fractionally to 190.9 million cwt (hundredweight), as reduced plantings were nearly offset by a slightly higher yield. o U.S. 2000/01 rice exports were raised 2 million cwt to 83 million (rough basis), with both rough rice and milled rice exports raised 1 million cwt. o Global rice production for 2000/01 was raised fractionally to 399.9 million cwt. Pakistan, Colombia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka accounted for most of the upward revisions. o Global trade for 2001 is virtually unchanged this month, as reduced export projections for India and China were nearly offset by increases for Pakistan, Vietnam, and Japan. o Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 61.6 million tons, up almost 1 million tons from lasts month forecast but 3.6 million below a year earliers record. RICE GROWERS INDICATE 2001 RICE PLANTINGS AT 3.1 MILLION ACRES The March Prospective Plantings report indicated U.S. rice farmers intend to plant 3.09 million rice acres in 2001/02, up 1 percent from a year earliers revised level. An increase in long grain acreage--partially offset by a decline in medium grain acreage--is behind the year-to-year production increase. Growers intend to raise long grain plantings 177,000 acres to 2.38 million. In contrast, intended medium grain plantings were reported at 670,000 acres, down 148,000 from a year earlier. Growers indicate they would expand short grain acreage 1,000 acres to 37,000. Growers indicated they would increase rice acreage in every southern State except Arkansas. Planted acreage in Louisiana was indicated to be 540,000 acres, up 55,000 from a year earlier and the largest year-to-year increase of any State. Improved planting conditions from a year earlier--when drought and salination limited plantings--are behind most of this increase. Growers in Missouri indicated they would expand rice plantings 15,000 acres- -all long grain--to a record 185,000. Mississippi producers indicate they would plant 225,000 acres in 2001, up 5,000 from a year earlier. Farmers intent to expand Texas rice acreage 5,000 acres to 220,000. In contrast, prospective plantings in Arkansas were reported at 1.4 million acres, down more than 1 percent from 2000/01. The reduction stems from an 110,000-acre reduction in medium grain plantings to 170,000 acres. Arkansas growers intend to raise long grain plantings 90,000 acres to more than 1.2 million. In California, where the bulk of the medium grain crop is grown, growers indicated they would reduce rice acreage 30,000 acres to 520,000. The NASS survey of planting intentions was conducted in early March prior to any significant rice planting. Adverse weather or changes in relative prices among crops could alter actual plantings. The first U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) survey of actual 2001 rice plantings will be conducted in June. Through April 8, about 16 percent of the 2001 U.S. rice crop had been planted, slightly ahead of last years pace and the 5-year average. Louisianas plantings were 50 percent complete, slightly ahead of its 5-year average but fractionally behind a year earlier. In Texas, plantings were 49 percent complete and were behind a year earliers pace due to substantial rains early in the season. Plantings in Arkansas and Mississippi were ahead of their 5-year averages as of April 8. Planting had yet to begin in California. U.S. 2000/01 RICE CROP LOWERED FRACTIONALLY TO 190.9 MILLION CWT In March, NASS re-estimated area, yield, and production for the 2000 U.S. rice crop and reported the results in the March Rice Stocks. A slight drop in total plantings--all long grain--to 3.06 million acres reduced the crop fractionally to 190.9 million cwt. In contrast, the yield was raised 3 pounds to a record 6,281 pounds per acre. Long grain plantings were reduced 46,000 acres, nearly all in Arkansas. In contrast, combined medium/short grain acreage was raised 41,000 acres, with a 45,000-acre increase in Arkansas plantings offsetting a 4,000-acre drop in California. These area changes resulted in a 2.7-million cwt reduction in long grain production to 128.8 million cwt, and a 2.5-million cwt increase in medium/short grain production to 62.1 million. Total imports were raised 300,000 cwt (all long grain) to 10.3 million, fractionally above a year earlier, based on deliveries through January. Beginning stocks remain estimated at 27.5 million cwt, up 24 percent from a year earlier. Total supply for 2000/01 is projected at 228.6 million cwt, up fractionally from last month but 4 percent below a year earlier. The 2000/01 milling rate was raised to 70.5 percent from 69.5 percent based on milling data through January. On the use side, exports were raised 2 million cwt (rough basis) to 83 million, with rough exports raised 1 million cwt to a record 27 million cwt and milled exports raised 1 million cwt to 56 million cwt. Seed use was lowered 200,000 cwt to 3.8 million based on planting information from the March Prospective Plantings report. Food, industrial, and residual was lowered 1.5 million cwt to 117.5 million. The reduction was the result of the higher milling yield and estimated domestic use through February. These revisions led to a 300,000-cwt increase in total use to 204.3 million, down 3 percent from a year earlier. Ending stocks were lowered about 1 percent to 24.3 million cwt, resulting in a slight drop in the stocks-to-use ratio to 11.9 percent. Through March 29, U.S. Export Sales reported combined exports and outstanding sales of all rice at 2.35 million tons (product- weight basis), more than 8 percent lower than 1999/2000. This decline comes from a steep drop in milled rice exports. By contrast, rough rice exports reported by Export Sales are well ahead of a year earlier. The main U.S. markets of rough rice are Mexico, Central America, and Turkey. Based on data from the March Rice Stocks report, U.S. rice stocks on March 1 are estimated at 93.1 million cwt (rough basis), down 3.7 million from a year earlier. Long grain stocks are estimated at 54.9 million cwt, down 17 percent. Combined medium/short grain stocks are estimated at 36.4 million cwt, an increase of 37 percent from a year earlier. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the reduction in March 1 stocks. In contrast, stocks in California are estimated to be up 41 percent from a year earlier. LONG GRAIN ENDING STOCKS LOWERED TO 11 MILLION CWT Total long grain supply is projected at 153.5 million cwt, down 2 percent from last months forecast and almost 12 percent below a year earliers record. The month-to-month reduction is the result of a 2-percent cut in production more than offsetting a 300,000- cwt increase in imports to 9.1 million. On the use side, domestic use (including residual) was lowered 1.5 million cwt to 78.5 million. In contrast, exports were raised 1 million cwt to 64 million based on a strong pace of rough rice exports through March. These revisions resulted in a 500,000-cwt reduction in total long grain use to 142.5 million. Long grain ending stocks were lowered nearly 2 million cwt to 11 million. The stocks-to- use ratio was lowered to 7.7 percent from 9 percent a month earlier. Both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are the lowest since 1995/96. Total medium/short grain supply is projected at 73.7 million cwt, up more than 3 percent from a month earlier and almost 17 percent larger than a year earlier. Production was raised 4 percent--a result of a 5-percent increase in planted area and a 1-percent decrease in yield. Medium/short grain imports remain projected at 1.2 million cwt. Domestic use was lowered 200,000 cwt to 42.8 million. In contrast, medium/short grain exports were raised 1 million cwt to 19 million. The increase is based on expectations of increased milled exports, especially to Turkey. Total use was raised 800,000 cwt to 61.8 million, up nearly 17 percent from a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 11.9 million cwt, up more than 16 percent from last months projection and almost 15 percent above a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio was raised 2.5 percentage points to 19.3 percent, fractionally below a year earlier. U.S. 2000/01 SEASON-AVERAGE PRICE RANGE NARROWED SLIGHTLY The 2000/01 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.65 to $5.75 per cwt, a narrowing of 5 cents on both the high and low end from a month earlier. The revision was based on reported monthly cash prices through mid-March. The mid-point of the 2000/01 SAFP range, unchanged from last month, is the lowest since 1986/87. Despite smaller supplies this year, average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have remained below a year earlier since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Last month, USDA estimated Marchs mid-month price at $5.70 per cwt and raised Februarys to $5.72 from a preliminary $5.69. Since August, reported monthly cash prices have averaged $5.68 per cwt. Cash prices for rough long grain rice have dropped slightly from a month earlier. In the Delta, cash prices for long grain rough rice for the week ending April 3 were quoted around $5.75 per cwt, down 10 to 15 cents from late March and about 25 cents below a month earlier. Long grain prices in Texas and Southwest Louisiana were quoted a little higher. In Texas, long grain prices were quoted at $6.00 per cwt in early April, down about 35 cents from a month earlier. In Southwest Louisiana, long grain prices were quoted at $6.20 per cwt, down slightly from a week earlier but 10 cents higher than in late February. Quoted prices for medium grain rough rice in the Delta have dropped substantially since the start of the 2000/01 market year primarily due to larger supplies this year. For the week ending April 3, medium grain rough rice prices in the Delta were quoted at $3.50 per cwt, down about 20 cents from a month earlier and $1.00 below prices reported in early February. In California, rough rice prices were calculated at less than $3.50 per cwt for the week ending April 3, down more than 50 cents from a month earlier. Because the bulk of Californias rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of the milled rice. A record California harvest this year is behind the substantial drop in prices. INTERNATIONAL PRICES ARE THE LOWEST IN AT LEAST 15 YEARS Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled and parboiled rice have dropped sharply over the last month, primarily in response to a lack of new sales, large global supplies, and the recent decline in the value of the Thai baht. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $168 per ton for the week ending April 9, down from $186 in early March and the lowest in at least 15 years. From late July 2000 through mid-March, prices traded within a narrow range. However, prices have dropped sharply since mid-March, despite large purchases last month by the Philippines and Thai intervention buying. Prices for Thailands parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were reported at $163 per ton for the week ending April 9, down $15 from a month earlier and the lowest in nearly 15 years. A slowdown in sales to Nigeria--the largest buyer of parboiled rice--is a major factor behind the recent decline in parboiled prices. Prices for Thailands premium jasmine rice have plummeted since late July, primarily due to large supplies and weaker global demand. Prices were reported at $323 per ton for the week ending April 9, down $7 from early March and $200 below reported prices in mid-October. Prices for Thai jasmine were quoted at $570 per ton in late July. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A.1 Special 100-percent brokens) have dropped sharply since early March. Prices were reported at $121 for the week ending April 9, up slightly from late March but down $10 from a month earlier. Recent sales to Senegal boosted prices for 100-percent brokens slightly. Quoted prices for Vietnams 5-percent brokens have steadily dropped since late February after remaining nearly stable since late December. Prices were quoted at $148 per ton for the week ending April 3, down from $155 a month earlier. Harvest of a bumper winter-spring crop in the Mekong Delta, a lack of fresh demand, and large global supplies are behind the recent price drop. Like Thailand, the Government of Vietnam has attempted to support prices through intervention buying. Vietnams rice is currently trading around $15 per ton below prices for similar quality Thai rice, down from more than $25 a month earlier. Vietnams prices are currently very competitive in the global market. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, for the domestic market) have remained at $276 per ton since October. The difference between Thai 100- percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was $105 per ton in early April, up from $90 a month earlier and $83 in early February. The difference averaged $54 in 1999/2000. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) have declined sharply since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Prices were reported at $265 per ton for the week ending April 9, down $11 from mid-March and well below the $419 reported in August. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest since late 1986. The price decline is primarily in response to a record California crop. THAILANDS AND PAKISTANS 2000/01 CROP PROJECTIONS RAISED Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 399.9 million tons (milled basis), up fractionally from last months forecast but more than 2 percent below a year earliers revised record. Global consumption is projected at a record 403.5 million tons, virtually unchanged from last months forecast and just fractionally above a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at almost 61.6 million tons, up nearly 1 million from last months forecast but more than 3.6 million tons below a year earliers revised record. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.3 percent, up slightly from last month but below a year earliers revised 16.2 percent. Two major exporters account for the bulk of this months upward revision in global 2000/01 production. Pakistans crop was raised 400,000 tons to 4.7 million (milled basis), a result of an increase in area and a fractionally higher yield. Production in Thailand--the worlds largest rice export--was raised 230,000 tons to a record 16.8 million due to greater plantings and a slightly higher yield. Production in other countries was raised as well. Colombias rice production was raised 325,000 tons to 1.33 million due to greater plantings and a slightly higher yield. Note back-year revisions in Colombias rice area and production. Rice production in Sri Lanka was raised 140,000 tons to a near-record 1.94 million tons due to a big increase in area; the yield was lowered slightly. The U.S. crop was raised 70,000 tons to 6.1 million, a result of a higher milling yield. The U.S. rough rice crop was actually lowered due to reduced area. Guyanas production was raised 15,000 tons to 365,000 due to greater plantings; the yield was actually lowered. Smaller production increases were made this month for Spain, Costa Rica, Peru, and Australia, Partially offsetting these increases were several reductions. Indonesias 2000/01 production was lowered 386,000 tons to 33.1 million due to a lower yield. Brazils crop was lowered 64,000 tons to 7.34 million based on lower area. Panama's production was lowered 54,000 tons to 146,000 based on reduced area and a lower yield. Smaller crop reductions were made for Mexico, Russia, South Korea, and Ukraine. Global production in 1999/2000 is estimated at a record 408.6 million tons (milled basis), up 800,000 from last months forecast and almost 4 percent above a year earlier. Colombia accounts for the bulk of the upward revision. Production in Colombia was raised 394,000 tons to a record 1.4 million tons due to a large increase in area; the yield was lowered slightly. Greater plantings were behind a 150,000-ton increase in Perus production to 1.25 million tons. A higher yield pushed Sri Lankas production up 147,000 tons to almost 1.95-million, a record. Russias production was raised 95,000 tons to 385,000 due to a higher yield; area was lowered slightly. A higher yield pushed Italys production up 44,000 tons to 884,000. Smaller production increases were made for Argentina, Guyana, and Costa Rica. These 1999/2000 production increases were partially offset by several reductions. Panamas production was lowered 48,000 tons to 152,000 due to smaller plantings and a lower yield. Smaller plantings and a lower yield were responsible for a 31,000-ton drop in Mexicos production to 269,000. Ukraines crop was lowered 4,000 tons to 43,000 due to a lower yield. 2001 EXPORT PROJECTIONS RAISED FOR VIETNAM AND PAKISTAN Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 22.6 million tons (milled basis), just 50,000 tons below last months forecast and about 230,000 tons below 2000s level. Trade for calendar year 2001 is projected to be 18 percent below the 1998 record of 27.7 million tons. Indias 2001 exports were lowered 300,000 tons this month to 800,000 based on shipments through February and support prices that make India uncompetitive in the global market. Chinas exports were lowered 200,000 tons to 3 million based on shipments to date, high internal price, and ample exportable supplies in other countries. Nearly offsetting these reductions were several increases. Pakistans exports were raised 200,000 tons to 2 million--tied with a year earliers record--based on a larger crop and a strong pace to date. Vietnams exports were raised 200,000 tons to 4 million based on recent large sales to the Philippines and the announcement of government programs to promote exports. Japans rice exports--all food aid--were raised 50,000 tons to 550,000 based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Tokyo. On the import side, Russias imports were lowered 90,000 tons to 350,000 based on a larger 1999/2000 crop. Sri Lankas imports were reduced 70,000 tons to 30,000 based on a larger crop and smaller 2000 imports. Japans imports were lowered 40,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Ag Attache in Tokyo. Laoss imports were cut 40,000 tons to just 10,000 based on weaker imports in 2000. Note several back-year revisions in Laoss imports. Syrias imports were lowered 50,000 tons to 150,000 based on weaker consumption and smaller 2000 imports. In contrast, Indonesias 2001 imports were raised 500,000 tons to 1.8 million based on a smaller crop and expectations regarding import needs for the rest of the year. Imports by the Philippines were raised 200,000 tons to 850,000 based on shipments to date and recent announcements regarding import needs for the remainder of the year. Colombias imports were raised 20,000 tons to 130,000 based on the recent granting of import licenses. Imports were raised by smaller amounts this month for Cambodia, Ukraine, and the United States. Global trade for calendar year 2000 is estimated at nearly 22.9 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but more than 8 percent below a year earlier. Nearly all 2000 trade revisions were based on shipment data. The largest revision was to Sri Lankas imports, which were lowered 80,000 tons to just 20,000 based on shipment data and a much larger crop. Also, Syrias imports were reduced 50,000 tons to 150,000 based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Syria. Other revisions included revised 2000 import estimates for Japan, Peru, Laos, Costa Rica, India, Mexico, Cambodia, the United States, and Ukraine. ----------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on May 11, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605- 6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on March 12, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 and Bill Chambers (202) 694-5312. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1995/96 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1995/96 to present Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use, 1995/96 to present 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1999/00 2000/01 Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 2/ 3/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - TOTAL RICE Percent ARP 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 3.121 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 Harvested 3.093 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 Production 173.9 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 Imports 7.7 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.3 Total supply 212.9 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.6 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 101.1 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 117.5 Seed 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.8 Total Domestic use 104.6 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 121.3 Exports 83.2 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 83.0 Rough 10.7 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 27.0 Milled 5/ 72.6 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 56.0 Total use 187.8 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 204.3 Ending stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 13.3 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 11.9 $/cwt Average farm price 6/ 9.15 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.65-5.75 Percent Average milling rate 71.4 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 70.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | ---------------- ------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | August | 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 5.78 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.72 12,296 5.88 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.70 1/ 12,322 1/ 5.71 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.75 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.63 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.80 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.65 9,361 8.26 9,329 | | Average 2/ | 5.68 12,322 5.93 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ |5.65-5.75 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - | $/cwt | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April 1/ | 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.43 3.11 3.10 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= = Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 03/29/01 | 03/29/00 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================= = | 1,000 metric tons European Union 314 | 343 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 14 | 18 29 29 28 85 Turkey 196 | 187 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 1 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 289 | 371 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 280 | 401 515 275 242 380 Jordan 3 | 21 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 118 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 119 | 179 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 149 | 175 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 20 15 15 34 33 Ghana 45 | 61 81 58 66 66 Liberia 17 | 3 12 10 8 9 South Africa 56 | 83 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,112 | 1,020 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 0 | 4 2 556 29 9 Canada 98 | 90 184 176 177 170 Colombia 3 | 0 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 79 | 83 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 21 | 36 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 37 | 34 42 28 28 35 Haiti 98 | 98 201 225 183 152 Honduras 80 | 62 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 25 | 19 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 3 | 12 6 12 21 16 Mexico 519 | 429 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 67 | 78 89 68 40 51 Panama 0 | 8 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 19 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 57 | 31 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 9 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 2/ 2,355 | 2,571 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 | Total Census Bureau 2,650 2/| 2,800 2/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 ============================================================================= = N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled Final are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled as of are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. Table 5-U.S., Thailand, Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ --------------------------- --------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A.1 brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/00 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 265 353 170 163 154 133 120 148 2000/01 9 271 337 362 187 188 170 151 133 168 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100-pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4-percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1995/96 to present 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2/ 3/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 2.335 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 Harvested 2.312 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 Production 121.7 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 Imports 6.4 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 9.1 Total supply 142.5 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.5 Domestic use 4/ 66.9 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 78.5 Exports 65.5 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 64.0 Total use 132.4 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 142.5 Ending stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.0 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 7.6 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 7.7 MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.786 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 Harvested 0.781 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,676 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 Production 52.1 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 Imports 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 Total supply 5/ 69.7 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 73.7 Domestic use 4/ 37.7 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 42.8 Exports 17.7 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 19.0 Total use 55.4 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 61.8 Ending stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 25.8 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 19.3 ---------------- Million cwt Ending stocks difference 1/ 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. ERS on the World Wide Web ERS' newly redesigned and restructured website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. Its been greatly expanded--including 19 commodity briefing rooms, 12 country Briefing Rooms, and a host of issue-oriented rooms covering issues ranging from analysis of the World Trade Organization to topics such as risk management, farm structure, and conservation and environmental policies. Powerful new interface design Packed with information, products, and services--yet clean, crisp, and easy to navigate. User-friendly site structure Navigate by topic, research-area emphasis, Briefing Rooms, publications, or data. Or, browse our features and services. Enhanced search feature Users may search by key topic or by using an advanced search feature. Synthesis of the extensive research Briefing Rooms provide a synthesis of the issues and analysis, along with a full collection of resources specific to a subject, including: Latest publications Latest data products Recommended readings and data products Recent research developments Questions and answers Newsletters Related links Maps and charts gallery Economic models A host of new services Users will be able to contact ERS experts, see upcoming events/publications, find ERS research related to whats in the news, and subscribe to E-mail updates. And more! Come visit us and see for yourself! Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov END_OF_FILE