RICE OUTLOOK May 11, 2001 May 2001, ERS-RCS-0501 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: ? The U.S. 2001/02 rough rice crop is projected at 186 million hundredweight (cwt), down almost 3 percent from a year earlier. ? U.S. 2001/02 exports are projected at 76 million cwt (rough basis), down more than 8 percent from a year earlier, with milled rice accounting for all of the decline. ? The 2001/02 U.S. season average farm price is projected at $5.25 to $5.75 per cwt, compared with a revised 2000/01 projection of $5.55 to $5.65. ? The first projection for 2001/02 global rice production is 399.9 million tons (milled basis), up fractionally from a year earlier but 2 percent below the 1999/2000 record. ? Global exports for market year 2001/02 are projected at 24 million tons (milled basis), up fractionally from a year earlier. ? Global ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 131 million tons, down more than 3 percent from a year earlier and the second consecutive year of declining global stocks. This month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) made major revisions to China's 1980/81 to 2000/01 grain stocks and domestic use estimates. This resulted in a huge increase in global rice stocks and a reduction in global rice use. U.S. 2001/02 ROUGH RICE CROP PEGGED AT 186 MILLION CWT The first projection for the 2001/02 U.S. rice crop is 186 million cwt (rough basis), almost 3 percent below a year earlier. The decline stems from a 220-pound drop in average yield to 6,061 pounds per acre, still the third highest on record. In contrast, planted area-projected at 3.09 million acres-is up 1 percent from a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain production-accounting for all of the year-to-year production decline-is projected at 50.5 million cwt, a drop of almost 19 percent from 2000/01. Combined medium/short grain plantings are projected to be down 17 percent from a year earlier. Medium grain prices have been well below long grain prices since the start of the 2000/01 market year. In contrast, long grain production is projected to rise 5 percent to 135.5 million tons, a result of an 8-percent increase in plantings. The 2001 crop projection is based on farmers' planting intentions, average abandonment, and a projected yield. The acreage projections are from the March 2001 Prospective Plantings report which surveyed farmers' planting intentions as of March 1. Actual plantings may differ. On June 29, USDA will publish the first survey of actual 2001 plantings. The U.S. average yield projection was developed by first estimating yields for both long grain and combined medium/short grain rice using 1991-2000 yield trends by class. The by-class yields were multiplied by projected harvested acreage to determine production by class. Total production-the sum of long and combined medium/short grain-was then divided by harvested acreage to derive an average yield. Total supply for 2001/02 is projected at 220.8 million cwt, down more than 3 percent from a year earlier, a result of both a smaller carryin and weaker production. Beginning stocks are projected at 24.3 million cwt, down 11 percent from a year earlier. Imports (consisting mainly of aromatic varieties) are projected at 10.5 million cwt, up 200,000 from this year. Nearly 75 percent of U.S. rice imports are from Thailand (mainly jasmine), with basmati from India and Pakistan accounting for most of the remainder. Total use for 2001/02 is projected at 198.9 million cwt, down almost 3 percent from a year earlier as expanding domestic use is more than offset by weaker exports. Total domestic use (food, industrial, and residual plus seed use) is projected at a record 122.9 million cwt, up more than 1 percent from a year earlier. Food, industrial, and residual, estimated at a record 119 million cwt, accounts for the bulk of the increase. The forecast is based on 1990 to 2000 trend analysis and expectations regarding growth in per capita consumption. Seed use is forecast at 3.9 million cwt, up fractionally from 2000/01. Total exports are projected at 76 million cwt, down 7 million from a year earlier and the lowest in a decade. Tighter supplies and intense competition are behind the export reduction. Milled rice exports-projected to drop almost 13 percent to 49 million cwt-account for all of the expected reduction in U.S. exports. This will be the lowest level of milled rice exports in decades. The European Union (EU), Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa are expected to be top markets for milled rice again. In contrast, rough rice exports are projected to remain at a year earlier's record 27 million cwt. Mexico, Central America, and Turkey are expected to be top markets again. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected to drop almost 10 percent to 21.9 million cwt, the lowest in 20 years. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11 percent, down from 11.9 percent in 2000/01. There were no revisions to the 2000/01 supply and use projections this month. As of May 6, plantings were 79 percent complete, ahead of both a year earlier and the 5-year average. Plantings in Texas and Louisiana were nearly complete, with both States ahead of their 5-year averages. Plantings in Mississippi were 84 percent complete, well ahead of a year earlier and the 5-year average of 77 percent. In Arkansas, plantings were 91 percent complete, well ahead of a year earlier and the State's 5-year average. Plantings in California were 30 percent complete, substantially behind a year earlier but about equal to the 5-year average. About 56 percent of the U.S. crop had emerged by May 6, well ahead of a year earlier's 45 percent and the 5-year average of 38 percent. About 86 percent of the Texas crop and 81 percent of the Louisiana crop had emerged, both ahead of their 5-year averages. In Arkansas, 64 percent of the crop had emerged, well ahead of the 5-year average of 32 percent. In Mississippi, 60 percent had emerged, also well ahead of its 5-year average. None of the California crop had emerged by May 6, well behind a year earlier's 14 percent and the 5-year average of 6 percent. U.S LONG GRAIN SUPPLIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIGHT IN 2001/02 Total long grain supply in 2001/02 is projected at 155.8 million cwt, up almost 2 percent from a year earlier. A larger crop plus a fractional rise in imports to 9.3 million cwt more than offset an almost 30 percent reduction in beginning stocks. At 11 million cwt, long grain beginning stocks are the lowest since 1996/97. Total long grain use is projected at 144 million cwt, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Total long grain domestic use (including residual) is forecast at 84 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year earlier. In contrast, exports are projected to drop 6 percent to 60 million cwt, the lowest since 1996/97. Ending stocks are projected to rise 7 percent to 11.8 million cwt. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 8.2 percent, up a half of a percentage point from a year earlier, but still one of the lowest since 1982/83 when USDA first reported supply and use for rice by class. Total medium/short grain supply for 2001/02 is projected at 63.6 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier. A 19-percent drop in production more than offset a 15-percent increase in beginning stocks to 11.9 million cwt. Medium/short grain imports are projected to remain at 1.2 million cwt. Total medium/short grain use is projected at 54.9 million cwt, down 11 percent from a year earlier as both domestic use and exports are projected to decline. Domestic use is expected to drop 9 percent to 38.9 million cwt and exports to drop 16 percent to 16 million. Tighter supplies and higher prices are behind the expected decline in medium/short grain use. Ending stocks are projected to drop 27 percent to 8.7 million cwt, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.9 percent. Ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are the second lowest since 1982/83. U.S. 2001/02 SEASON-AVERAGE PRICE PROJECTED AT $5.25 TO $5.75 PER CWT The 2001/02 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.25 to $5.75 per cwt, with the mid-point the lowest since 1986/87. The 2000/01 SAFP range was lowered 10 cents on both the high and low end to $5.55 to $5.65. The revision was based on reported monthly cash prices through mid-April and expectations regarding prices through July. Despite smaller supplies this year, average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice have remained below a year earlier since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Last month, USDA estimated April's mid-month price at $5.52 per cwt and lowered March's to $5.55 from a preliminary $5.70 per cwt. Since August, reported monthly cash prices have averaged $5.64 per cwt. In the Delta, cash prices for long grain rough rice have risen slightly from a month earlier. Cash prices for long grain rough rice for the week ending May 8 were quoted around $6 per cwt, up 25 cents from a month earlier. Long grain rough rice prices in Southwest Louisiana have continued to drift lower since late March and were quoted at $6 per cwt in early May, down 10 to 20 cents from April. In Texas, long grain prices have remained at $6.00 per cwt since mid-March. Very little rough rice remains to be marketed in Texas and Southwest Louisiana. In the Delta, prices for medium grain rough rice-quoted at $4 per cwt for the week ending May 7-were up slightly from April. Prices had dropped substantially since the start of the 2000/01 market year and remain well below prices for long grain. In California, prices for medium grain rough rice were calculated at less than $3.25 per cwt for the week ending May 8, about the same as last month but about $5 below a year earlier. A record California harvest this year is behind the substantial drop in prices. Because the bulk of California's rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of the milled rice. INTERNATIONAL PRICES REMAIN WEAK IN THE FACE OF LARGE SUPPLIES Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled and parboiled rice remain at near 20-year lows, primarily in response to large supplies and little growth in global imports. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $171 per ton for the week ending April 30, virtually unchanged from the start of the month but down $15 from early March. From late July 2000 through mid-March, prices traded within a narrow range. However, prices dropped sharply in the second half of March, despite large purchases by the Philippines and intervention buying. Prices for Thailand's parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were reported at $166 per ton for the week ending April 30, up slightly from the beginning of the month but down $12 from mid-March. A slowdown in sales to Nigeria-the largest buyer of parboiled rice-in early 2001 was a major factor behind the recent decline in parboiled prices. Prices for Thailand's premium jasmine rice continued to slide in April, primarily due to large supplies and weaker global demand. Prices were reported at $318 per ton for the week ending April 30, down $7 from a month earlier and more than $200 below reported prices in mid-October. Prices for Thai jasmine were quoted at $570 per ton in late July. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A.1 Special 100-percent brokens) were reported at $122 per ton at the end of April, up $4 from the start of the month but about $10 below prices in early March. Prices for Vietnam's 5-percent brokens were quoted at $148 per ton for the week ending May 8, up $3 to $5 from late April, a result of recent large sales to the Philippines, Iraq, Africa, and Cuba. Vietnam's prices dropped from late February through late April. The Government of Vietnam has attempted to support prices through intervention buying. Vietnam's rice is currently trading around $16 per ton below prices for similar quality Thai rice, nearly unchanged from a month earlier. Vietnam's prices are currently very competitive in the global market. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, domestic sales) have remained at $276 per ton since October. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was $105 per ton at the end of April, almost unchanged from a month earlier but almost double the 1999/2000 average of $54. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) have continued to decline since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Prices were reported at $243 per ton for the week ending May 7, down $11 from a week earlier and $22 below prices in early April. Prices were reported at $419 in August. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest in more than 2 decades. The price decline is primarily in response to a record California crop. GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION IN 2001/02 PROJECTED AT 399.9 MILLION TONS For 2001/02, world rice production is projected at 399.9 million tons (milled basis), up 1.7 million tons from this year's revised level, but more than 2 percent below the 1999/2000 record. Total foreign production is projected at 394 million tons, up almost 2 million from 2000/01. The biggest rice producing countries are projected to produce large-but not record-crops in 2001/02. Several major exporters are expected to produce slightly smaller crops, primarily a response to very low prices and stagnant global trade. The projections assume normal weather worldwide. USDA will report country-specific projections for 2001/02 in July. Total consumption is projected at a record 404.5 million tons, up almost 1 percent from 2000/01. With consumption exceeding production, ending stocks are forecast to drop more than 3 percent to 131 million tons, the second consecutive year of declining global stocks. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 32.4 percent, down from 33.8 percent a year earlier. This month USDA made major revisions in China's grain stocks and consumption estimates for market years 1980/81 through 2000/01. For rice, the revisions were largely based on per capita use analysis indicating consumption levels were estimated too-high in the 1980's. The reduction in China's consumption caused large increases in stocks. For a complete description of the revisions in China's grain stocks, please go to http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. In addition, this month USDA began reporting ending stocks for Vietnam starting in 1995/96 based on input from the agricultural attache in Hanoi and market analysis. INDIA'S 2000/01 CROP LOWERED 1.5 MILLION TONS TO 85.5 MILLION Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 398.2 million tons (milled basis), down 1.7 million from last month's forecast but more than 2 percent below a year earlier's record. Global consumption is projected at 400.8 million tons, down 2.7 million from last month's forecast, primarily due to the downward revisions in China's consumption estimates. Global ending stocks are projected at 135.6 million tons, down 2 percent from a year earlier's revised record. Two major exporters account for the bulk of this month's downward revision in global 2000/01 production. India's crop was lowered 1.5 million tons to 85.5 million (milled basis), a result of weaker plantings, primarily in West Bengal. Production in Vietnam-the world's second largest rice exporter-was lowered 282,000 tons to 20.8 million due to smaller plantings and a slightly weaker yield. Production in other countries was lowered as well. Venezuela's rice production was lowered 42,000 tons to 468,000 based on lower area. Cambodia's production was dropped 24,000 tons to 2.37 million due to a much smaller yield. In contrast, Burma's crop was raised 60,000 tons to a near-record 9.86 million based on record plantings of 6 million hectares. Finally, Mexico's crop was raised 3,000 tons to 270,000 based on a fractionally higher yield. The only revision to 1999/2000 global production was a 55,000-ton increase in Venezuela's crop to 585,000 tons based on a much higher yield. MARKET YEAR 2001/02 GLOBAL EXPORTS PROJECTED AT 24 MILLION TONS The first forecast for market year 2001/02 pegs global rice exports at 24 million tons (milled basis), up fractionally from a year earlier. The forecast includes intra-EU trade and is an aggregate of local marketing years. Ample supplies are again expected in most major Asian exporting countries. Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 remains projected at 22.6 million tons (milled basis), 140,000 tons below 2000's revised level. A 500,000-tons drop in China's exports to 2.5 million-based on first quarter shipments-was offset by greater exports from Burma and Thailand. Thailand's exports were raised 400,000 tons to a record 6.7 million based on shipments through late April. Similarly, Burma's exports were raised 100,000 tons to 350,000 based on first-quarter shipments. There were no revisions to any major importer this month. However, while EU trade with non-member countries was not revised, intra-EU trade was revised for several member countries for 1999, 2000, and 2001. Global trade for calendar year 2000 was lowered 90,000 tons to nearly 22.8 million. On the export side, Burma's exports were lowered 118,000 tons to 159,000 based on end-of-year data. In contrast, Pakistan's exports were raised 26,000 tons to a record 2.026 million, also based on end-of-year data. There were many revisions on the import side, with increases almost offsetting reductions. Nearly all revisions were based on end-of-year data. The most significant reductions were a 62,000-ton drop in Malaysia's imports to 596,000 and a 41,000-ton drop in Hong Kong's to 274,000. A 91,000-ton increase in Afghanistan's imports to 216,000 tons and a 50,000-ton increase in South Africa's to 525,000 nearly offset these reductions. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on June 13, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other commodity reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605-6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on May 14, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present ERS on the World Wide Web NOW AVAILABLE-A newly designed, newly structured ERS website. ERS' newly redesigned and restructured website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. 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Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.090 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.069 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,061 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.3 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 186.0 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.3 10.5 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.6 220.8 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 117.5 119.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.9 Total Domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 121.3 122.9 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 83.0 76.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 27.0 27.0 Milled 5/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 56.0 49.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 204.3 198.9 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.3 21.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 11.9 11.0 $/cwt Average farm 5.55 to 5.25 to prices 5/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.65 5.75 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 70.5 70.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual is unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 2000/01 1999/2000 1998/99 Month | ---------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | August | 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 5.78 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.72 12,296 5.88 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.55 11,549 5.71 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.52 1/ 12,225 1/ 5.75 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.63 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.80 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.65 9,361 8.26 9,329 | | Average 2/ | 5.64 12,225 5.93 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ |5.55-5.65 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | $/cwt (rough basis) | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May 1/ | 2.93 2.55 2.53 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.38 3.06 3.05 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 05/03/01 | 05/03/00 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 352 | 357 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 14 | 18 29 29 28 85 Turkey 198 | 188 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 1 | 0 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 1 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 290 | 371 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 292 | 412 515 275 242 380 Jordan 9 | 21 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 118 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 122 | 181 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 167 | 175 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 6 | 20 15 15 34 33 Ghana 60 | 60 81 58 66 66 Liberia 18 | 3 12 10 8 9 South Africa 57 | 83 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,212 | 1,114 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 0 | 4 2 556 29 9 Canada 102 | 95 184 176 177 170 Colombia 17 | 1 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 81 | 84 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 21 | 36 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 38 | 40 42 28 28 35 Haiti 111 | 119 201 225 183 152 Honduras 88 | 83 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 26 | 24 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 4 | 14 6 12 21 16 Mexico 566 | 453 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 74 | 77 89 68 40 51 Panama 0 | 8 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 19 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 55 | 40 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 9 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 2/ 2,527 | 2,692 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 | Total Census Bureau 2,650 2/ | 2,800 2/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 | ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ ---------------------------- --------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ----------- A.1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 Aug 1998 401 421 441 334 318 305 264 229 315 Sep 1998 391 441 435 332 317 304 269 241 311 Oct 1998 375 468 419 306 298 282 264 252 295 Nov 1998 386 445 419 278 275 260 248 234 278 Dec 1998 386 474 419 282 281 261 245 232 258 Jan 1999 383 474 419 308 303 283 252 234 245 Feb 1999 373 474 419 287 279 263 234 212 239 Mar 1999 367 474 419 263 254 239 213 197 228 Apr 1999 361 474 416 242 240 221 199 184 221 May 1999 344 474 408 252 249 229 202 184 229 Jun 1999 333 506 399 262 251 240 217 200 238 Jul 1999 331 518 397 259 248 241 220 209 230 1998/99 369 470 417 284 276 261 236 217 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 9/ 276 243 342 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 148 2000/01 9/ 271 327 360 187 188 170 151 133 166 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.0 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 135.5 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 9.1 9.3 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.5 155.8 Domestic use 4/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 78.5 84.0 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 64.0 60.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 142.5 144.0 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.0 11.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 7.7 8.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 50.5 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 73.7 63.6 Domestic use 4/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 42.8 38.9 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 19.0 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 61.8 54.9 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 8.7 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 19.3 15.9 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 ============================================================================= 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of broken total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning production and imports. 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