RICE OUTLOOK June 13, 2001 June 2001, ERS-RCS-0601 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly Highlights: * There were no supply revisions this month for the 2000/01 or 2001/02 U.S. rice market. * The 2000/01 and 2001/02 U.S. rough rice export projections were reduced 2 million hundredweight (cwt) to 25 million. Each was offset by higher milled rice exports. * The 2000/01 U.S. season average farm price is projected at $5.65 per cwt, compared with $5.55 to $5.65 a month earlier. * Global 2001/02 rice production is projected at 396.4 million tons (milled basis), down 3.5 million from a month earlier. * Global exports for calendar year 2001 are projected at 22.2 million tons (milled basis), down 455,000 from a month earlier. China accounts for most of the export reduction. * Import projections for 2001 for Indonesia, Iran, and Iraq were all substantially lowered this month, based primarily on shipment data through April. * Global ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 126.3 million tons, down 4.7 million from a month earlier and 6 percent below a year earlier. U.S. 2001/02 Total Supplies Projected To Drop More Than 3 Percent There were no supply adjustments this month to the 2000/01 or 2001/02 U.S. rice projections. The 2001/02 U.S. rice crop remains projected at 186 million hundredweight (cwt) (rough basis), almost 3 percent below a year earlier, a result of a 220-pound drop in average yield to 6,061 pounds per acre. In contrast, planted area is projected at 3.09 million acres, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain production- accounting for all of the production decline-is projected at 50.5 million cwt, a drop of almost 19 percent from 2000/01. In contrast, long grain production is projected to rise 5 percent to 135.5 million tons. Long grain prices have exceeded medium/short grain prices since the start of the 2000/01 August-July market year. The 2001 crop projection is based on farmers' planting intentions, average abandonment, and a projected yield. The acreage projections are from the March 2001 Prospective Plantings report which surveyed farmers' planting intentions as of March 1. Actual plantings may differ. On June 29, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will publish the first survey of actual 2001 plantings. The U.S. average yield for all rice was developed by first projecting yields by class using 1991-2000 trend analysis. The by-class yields were multiplied by projected harvested acreage to determine production by class. Total production was divided by harvested acreage to derive an average yield. Total supply for 2001/02 remains projected at 220.8 million cwt, down more than 3 percent from a year earlier, a result of both a smaller carryin and weaker production. Beginning stocks are projected at 24.3 million cwt, down more than 11 percent from a year earlier. Imports (consisting mainly of aromatic varieties) are projected at 10.5 million cwt, up 200,000 from 2000/01. Nearly 75 percent of U.S. rice imports are from Thailand (mainly jasmine), with basmati from India and Pakistan accounting for most of the remainder. U.S. 2001/02 Rough Rice Exports Lowered to 25 Million Cwt Total use for 2001/02 remains projected at 198.9 million cwt, down almost 3 percent from a year earlier as expanding domestic use is more than offset by weaker exports. Total domestic use (food, industrial, and residual plus seed use) is projected at a record 122.9 million cwt, up more than 1 percent from a year earlier. Food, industrial, and residual- estimated at a record 119 million cwt-accounts for the bulk of the increase. Seed use is forecast at 3.9 million cwt, up fractionally from 2000/01. Total exports remain projected at 76 million cwt, down 7 million from a year earlier and the lowest in a decade. Tighter U.S. supplies and intense competition in the global market are behind the export reduction. Rough rice exports were lowered 2 million cwt to 25 million, unchanged from a year earlier's revised level. The reduction was offset by a 2- million-cwt increase in milled rice exports to 51 million cwt. Even with the increase, milled rice exports are more than 15 percent smaller than a year earlier and the lowest in decades. Both revisions were based on revised 2000/01 projections. Ending stocks for 2001/02 remain projected at 21.9 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1980/81. The stocks-to- use ratio is projected at 11 percent, down from 11.9 percent in 2000/01. As of June 10, about 9 percent of the Louisiana crop and 4 percent of the Texas crop had headed, both behind a year earlier's pace. Heading had not yet begun in the other States. As of June 3, about 94 percent of the U.S. crop had emerged, about the same as a year earlier but 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was nearly complete across the South, slightly ahead of each State's 5-year average. In California, emergence was 75 percent complete, 15 percentage points behind a year earlier but fractionally above the State's 5-year average. Crop conditions are reported extremely favorable across the rice growing regions of the country. For the week ending June 10, 76 percent of the U.S. crop was rated good or excellent compared with 66 percent a year earlier. In California, 95 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, and the remainder in fair condition. U.S. 2001/02 Medium/Short Grain Supplies To Contract 14 Percent Total medium/short grain supply for 2001/02 is projected at 63.6 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier. A 19-percent drop in production more than offset a 15-percent increase in beginning stocks to 11.9 million cwt. Medium/short grain imports are projected to remain at 1.2 million cwt. Total medium/short grain use is projected at 54.9 million cwt, down 11 percent from a year earlier as both domestic use and exports are projected to decline. Domestic use is expected to drop 9 percent to 38.9 million cwt and exports to drop 16 percent to 16 million. Tighter supplies and higher prices are behind the expected decline in medium/short grain use. Ending medium/short stocks are projected to drop 27 percent to 8.7 million cwt, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.9 percent. Ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are the second lowest since USDA first reported supply and use tables by class of rice in 1982/83. Total long grain supply in 2001/02 is projected at 155.8 million cwt, up almost 2 percent from a year earlier. A larger crop plus a fractional rise in imports to 9.3 million cwt more than offset an almost 30 percent reduction in beginning stocks. At 11 million cwt, long grain beginning stocks are the lowest since 1996/97. Total long grain use is projected at 144 million cwt, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Total long grain domestic use (including residual) is forecast at 84 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year earlier. In contrast, exports are projected to drop 6 percent to 60 million cwt, the lowest since 1996/97. Ending stocks are projected to rise 7 percent to 11.8 million cwt. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 8.2 percent, up a half of a percentage point from a year earlier, but still one of the lowest since 1982/83. The only revisions to the 2000/01 U.S. use projections were a 2-million- cwt reduction in rough rice exports to 25 million and an offsetting 2- million-cwt increase in milled exports to 58 million. The revisions were based on Census data reporting shipments by class through March. As of May 30, combined exports and outstanding sales of U.S. rice reported in USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales totaled 2.58 million tons (product- weight), down almost 9 percent from a year earlier. U.S. Export Sales does not include food donations. While outstanding sales were reported at 272,900 tons-48 percent higher than a year earlier-exports were reported at slightly more than 2.3 million tons, nearly 13 percent behind a year earlier. Through May 30, combined outstanding sales and exports of U.S. rice were behind a year earlier to Turkey, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. U.S. 2000/01 Season-Average Farm Price Projected at $5.65 Per Cwt The 2000/01 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.65 per cwt, compared with $5.55 to $5.65 a month earlier. The revision was based on reported monthly cash prices through mid-May and expectations regarding prices for the remainder of the market year. The SAFP is the lowest since 1986/87. The 2001/02 SAFP remains projected at $5.25 to $5.75 per cwt. Despite smaller supplies this year, average monthly cash prices for total U.S. rice remained below a year earlier from the start of the 2000/01 market year in August through April. Last month, USDA estimated May's mid-month price at $5.67 per cwt and raised April's to $5.59 from a preliminary $5.52. The May mid-month price is 3 cents higher than a year earlier. Since August, reported monthly cash prices have averaged $5.65 per cwt. Supplies of high-quality long grain rice are tight across the South, especially in Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Marketings are light across the region as well. In the Delta, cash prices for long grain rough rice have dropped slightly from a month earlier. Cash prices for long grain rough rice for the week ending June 12 were quoted at $5.93 per cwt, down from $6 a month earlier. There is very little rough rice remaining in farmers' hands in Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Cash prices in both regions were quoted at about $6 per cwt, unchanged from a month earlier, with marketings scarce. Marketings of medium grain rice are extremely light in the South. In the Delta, prices for medium grain rough rice-quoted at $3.85 per cwt for the week ending June 12-are little changed from a month earlier. Prices have dropped substantially since the start of the 2000/01 market year and remain well below prices for long grain. In California, prices for medium grain rough rice were calculated at around $3.30 per cwt for the week ending June 12, up fractionally from a month earlier but nearly $5 below a year earlier. A record California harvest this year is behind the substantial drop in prices. Because the bulk of California's rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of milled rice. International Prices Rise On Recent Sales, Heavy Loadings Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled and parboiled rice have risen since mid-April, primarily due to a recent sale to Iran for 100,000 tons and heavy loadings and shipments to Africa, Malaysia, and the Philippines. However, prices are still only a few dollars above 20-year lows, a result of large supplies in most exporting countries and no growth in global imports. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $178 per ton for the week ending June 11, up about $10 from mid-April but down $8 from early March. From late July 2000 through mid-March, prices traded within a narrow range. However, prices dropped sharply in the second half of March, despite large purchases by the Philippines and intervention buying by the Government of Thailand. Prices for Thailand's parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were reported at $179 per ton for the week ending June 11, up $6 from a week earlier and almost $15 higher than prices reported in mid-April. The rise in parboiled price is primarily due to a resumption of shipments to Nigeria, the world's largest importer of parboiled rice. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A.1 Special 100-percent brokens) were reported at $128 per ton for the week ending June 11, up $6 from early May, primarily a result of large shipments to Senegal. Prices for Thailand's premium jasmine rice continued to drop through early June, a result of large supplies and weaker global demand. Prices were quoted at $291 per ton for the week ending June 5, down about $25 from a month earlier. Although prices rose a few dollars for the week ending June 11, they were still more than $200 below prices in mid-October and well below the $570 per ton quoted in late July. Prices for Vietnam's 5-percent brokens were quoted at $155 per ton for the week ending June 12, up $7 from early May and more than $10 higher than in late April. The higher prices are primarily due to heavy loadings and shipments to the Philippines, Iraq, Africa, and Cuba. Vietnam's prices dropped from late February through late April. Like Thailand, the Government of Vietnam has attempted to support prices through intervention buying. Vietnam's rice is currently trading around $14 per ton below prices for similar quality Thai rice, up slightly from a month earlier. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, domestic sales) have remained at $276 per ton since October. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was $98 per ton for the week ending June 11, down $5 to $8 from a month earlier but well above the 1999/2000 average of $54. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) have declined substantially since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Prices were quoted at $243 per ton for the week ending June 11, unchanged from a month earlier but $22 below prices in early April. Prices were quoted at $419 in August. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest in more than two decades. The price decline is primarily in response to a record California crop. 2000/01 Crop Projections Lowered For China, Iran, And Taiwan Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 396.6 million tons (milled basis), down 1.6 million from last month's forecast and almost 3 percent below a year earlier's record. Global consumption is projected at 401.4 million tons, up fractionally from last month's forecast and 2.4 million tons above a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at 134.4 million tons, down 1.2 million from last month's forecast and more than 4.8 million tons below a year earlier's record. China accounts for the bulk of this month's downward revision in global 2000/01 production. China's crop was lowered almost 1.5 million tons to 131.5 million (milled basis), based on data from China's National Bureau of Statistics reporting smaller production. Crop projections were lowered this month for Iran and Taiwan as well. A lower yield was responsible for a 68,000-ton reduction in Iran's crop to slightly more than 1.1 million, a result of severe drought in the region that began in 1999. This is the smallest rice production for Iran since 1988/89. Note several back-year reductions in Iran's rice crop. Taiwan's 2000/01 production was lowered 58,000 tons to slightly more than 1.3 million based on information from the U.S. Ag Counselor in Taiwan reporting smaller plantings. In contrast, Australia's crop was raised 6,000 tons to almost 1.3 million based on government data reporting a higher yield. Area was actually lowered slightly. Several back-year revisions were made to Iran's rice production this month based on government data. The 1999/2000 crop was reduced 351,000 tons to 1.2 million due to lower area and yield resulting from the severe drought in the region. Iran's 1997/98 crop was reduced 35,000 tons to less than 1.6 million tons due to a lower yield. In addition, Iran's annual domestic use and ending stocks series from 1972/73 through 2000/01 were revised this month based on historic per capita consumption analysis that resulted in larger stocks. For 2001/02, world rice production is projected at 396.4 million tons (milled basis), down 3.5 million from last month but virtually unchanged from 2000/01. The month-to-month reduction was based on recent reports of severe drought in parts of Northeast Asia and the impact of a smaller 2000/01 China crop on trend analysis of global rice production. The projections assume normal weather worldwide. USDA will report country- specific projections for 2001/02 in July. Total consumption is projected at a record 404.5 million tons, up almost 1 percent from 2000/01. With consumption exceeding production, ending stocks are forecast to drop 6 percent to 126.3 million tons, the second consecutive year of declining global stocks. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 31.2 percent, down from 33.5 percent a year earlier. Import Projections for 2001 Lowered for Indonesia, Iran, And Iraq Global rice trade for calendar year 2001 is projected at 22.2 million tons (milled basis), down 455,000 tons from last month's forecast and almost 600,000 tons below 2000. China accounts for the bulk of the month-to- month reduction in global exports. China's 2001 exports were lowered 700,000 tons to 1.8 million based on reported shipments through April. Taiwan's exports were reduced 5,000 tons to 120,000 based on data from the U.S. Ag Counselor in Taipei. In contrast, Pakistan's imports were raised 250,000 tons to a record 2.25 million based on a strong pace of shipment through April. Trade projections were lowered this month for three of the world's largest importers-Indonesia, Iran, and Iraq. Indonesia's 2001 imports were reduced 500,000 tons to 1.3 million based on deliveries through April, government announcements reporting little need for imports this year, and expectations of a bumper crop. These are the lowest imports for Indonesia since 1997. Iran's imports were cut 400,000 tons to 1 million based on deliveries to date and a revised ending stocks series indicating larger stocks. Iraq's 2001 imports were lowered 200,000 tons to 1 million based on first-quarter shipment data. Global rice exports for market year 2001/02 remain projected at 24 million tons, slightly above a year earlier but virtually unchanged from 1999/2000. USDA will report both total and country-specific exports and imports for calendar year 2002 in July. You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on July 12, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605-6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on June 14, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present ERS on the World Wide Web NOW AVAILABLE-A newly designed, newly structured ERS website. ERS' newly redesigned and restructured website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. 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Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.090 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.069 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,061 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.3 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 186.0 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.3 10.5 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.6 220.8 Food, industrial, & residual 3/ 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 117.5 119.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.9 Total Domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 121.3 122.9 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 83.0 76.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 25.0 25.0 Milled 4/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 58.0 51.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 204.3 198.9 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.3 21.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 11.9 11.0 $/cwt Average farm price 5/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.65 5.25-5.75 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 70.5 70.0 ========================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Projected. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 4/ Rough equivalent. 5/ Market year weighted average. Table 2--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | ---------------- ------------------- --- --------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | August | 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 5.78 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.72 12,296 5.88 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.55 11,549 5.71 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.59 11,074 5.75 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.67 1/ 12,097 1/ 5.63 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 5.80 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.65 9,361 8.26 9,329 | | Average 2/ | 5.65 12,097 5.93 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ | 5.65 4/ 120,974 141,561 135,386 | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current only month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 2000/01 1999/2000 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | $/cwt (rough basis) | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 2.94 2.57 2.55 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June 1/ | 3.00 2.63 2.61 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July | 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.35 3.02 3.01 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4--U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 05/31/01 | 05/31/00 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 359 | 359 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 15 | 20 29 29 28 85 Turkey 171 | 188 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 1 | 1 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 1 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 290 | 371 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 310 | 413 515 275 242 380 Jordan 23 | 21 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 118 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 124 | 181 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 185 | 177 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 12 | 20 15 15 34 33 Ghana 71 | 63 81 58 66 66 Liberia 18 | 3 12 10 8 9 South Africa 58 | 83 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,248 | 1,235 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 0 | 4 2 556 29 9 Canada 109 | 99 184 176 177 170 Colombia 17 | 1 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 82 | 84 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 21 | 36 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 38 | 43 42 28 28 35 Haiti 130 | 145 201 225 183 152 Honduras 105 | 99 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 26 | 24 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 5 | 14 6 12 21 16 Mexico 539 | 519 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 85 | 78 89 68 40 51 Panama 0 | 8 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 19 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 62 | 43 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 9 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 2/ 2,580 | 2,822 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 | Total Census Bureau 2,650 2/| 2,800 2/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 | ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. Table 5--U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ --------------------------- --------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A-1 7/ brokens year Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 180 211 417 161 148 144 171 125 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 276 243 342 172 171 154 138 123 153 Jun 2001 9/ 276 243 342 176 176 157 142 127 155 2000/01 9/ 272 319 358 185 185 168 149 132 166 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.0 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 135.5 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 9.1 9.3 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.5 155.8 Domestic use 3/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 78.5 84.0 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 64.0 60.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 142.5 144.0 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.0 11.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 7.7 8.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 50.5 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 1.2 Total supply 4/ 73.1 71.7 59.4 63.2 73.4 63.6 Domestic use 3/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 42.8 38.9 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 19.0 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 61.8 54.9 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 8.7 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 19.3 15.9 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens that are included in total stocks in table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. 4/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE