RICE OUTLOOK July 12, 2001 July 2001, ERS-RCS-0701 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic: The U.S. 2001/02 rice crop was raised 8 million (hundredweight) cwt to 194 million based on a 5-percent increase in plantings to 3.25 million acres. The yield was lowered fractionally to 6,019 pounds per acre due to acreage shifts by class and State. The area change was based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) June Acreage report. Long grain accounted for all of the area and production increase. Medium/short grain area and production were lowered. Both domestic use and exports for 2001/02 were raised this month, a result of the larger supplies and expectations of slightly lower U.S. prices in 2001/02. The net result of these revisions was a 10-percent increase in ending stocks to 24.2 million cwt. The 2001/02 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) was lowered to 10 cents on both the high and low end to $5.15 to $5.65. The 2000/01 SAFP was lowered 10 cents to $5.55 per cwt. Global: This month, USDA reported its first country-specific supply and use projections for 2001/02 and 2002 calendar year trade. Global rice production was lowered fractionally to 395.7 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Expectations of larger crops in 2001/02 in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam were almost offset by projected declines for China, Bangladesh, Australia, Pakistan, Japan, and North Korea. Global ending stocks are expected to drop 10 million tons in 2001/02 to 127.2 million, the second consecutive year of declining global stocks. International trade is projected to drop fractionally in calendar year 2002 to 22.1 million tons, the fourth consecutive year of declining global trade. Trading prices are projected to remain under pressure throughout 2002 from large supplies in major exporting countries and stagnant import demand. The analysis assumes normal weather globally. LARGER PLANTINGS RAISE U.S. 2001 CROP PROJECTION TO 194 MILLION CWT The 2001/02 U.S. rice crop is projected at 194 million cwt (rough basis), up more than 4 percent from last month's forecast a result of larger plantings and almost 2 percent larger than the 2000 crop. USDA's June Acreage reported plantings at 3.25 million acres, up 160,000 from the March intentions. In contrast, the average yield was lowered fractionally to 6,019 pounds per acre due to shifts in acreage by class and State. USDA will report its first survey-based yield estimate of the 2001 crop in August. Long grain accounted for all of the increase in this month's 2001 plantings estimate. Long grain plantings were raised to 2.625 million acres, up 242,000 from March. Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the increase in long grain plantings. Long grain acreage was also raised for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. In contrast, U.S. medium grain plantings were lowered 70,000 acres to 600,000, the lowest since 1986. Medium grain acreage was reported lower in both Arkansas and California. Short grain acreage, accounting for less than 1 percent of total U.S. rice plantings, was lowered 12,000 acres to 25,000. California which grows almost the entire U.S. short grain crop accounted for all of the reduction. By State, Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the increase in plantings, with total rice area reported 130,000 acres above the March intentions. Louisiana's plantings were raised 40,000 acres, Missouri's 25,000, and Mississippi's 15,000 from the March intentions. In contrast, rice plantings in California were lowered 45,000 acres and Texas plantings were cut 5,000 from March. The 2001 U.S. rice crop is projected to be more than 3 million cwt larger than a year earlier, a result of a 190,000 acre increase in plantings. Average yield is projected to be more than 4 percent below the 2000 record of 6,281 pounds per acre. Long grain production, projected at 149 million cwt and almost 16 percent larger than a year earlier, accounts for all of the year-to-year increase. Long grain acreage is estimated to be up 419,000 acres from a year earlier. In contrast, combined medium/short grain production is projected to drop almost 28 percent from a year earlier to 45 million cwt, the smallest since 1989. Combined medium/short grain acreage is estimated to be almost 27 percent below a year earlier. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year increase in rice plantings. Total rice acreage in Arkansas is estimated at 1.53 million acres, up 110,000 from a year earlier and second only to the 1999 record of 1.63 million. Long grain acreage estimated at a record 1.4 million acres accounted for all of the State's increase. Louisiana's 2001 rice plantings are estimated at 580,000 acres, up 95,000 all long grain from 2000. Drought and salt-water intrusion severely reduced Louisiana's 2000 rice plantings. Rice plantings in Missouri are estimated at a record 210,000 acres, up 40,000 from a year earlier. Rice acreage has expanded substantially in Missouri for more than a decade. Mississippi's rice plantings are estimated at 240,000 acres, up 20,000 from a year earlier. Long grain accounted for all of the acreage expansion in Missouri and Mississippi. At 215,000 acres, Texas rice plantings are unchanged from a year earlier. California is the only rice producing State to report smaller acreage in 2001. Plantings are estimated at 475,000 acres, a 75,000-acre drop from a year earlier and the lowest since 1995. Plantings were reported lower for all three classes of rice, with medium grain the bulk of California's rice crop accounting for most of the reduction. Low prices for medium grain, higher costs, and concerns over water availability are behind the cut in California's rice acreage. Total supply for 2001/02 is projected at 229.1 million cwt, up almost 4 percent from last month's forecast and virtually identical to a year earlier. An 8-million cwt increase in production accounts for most of the month-to- month increase. Imports were raised slightly to a record 10.75 million based on revised 2000/01 imports. Beginning stocks are projected at 24.3 million cwt, nearly unchanged from last month but more than 11 percent below a year earlier. U.S. 2001/02 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED 5 MILLION CWT TO 81 MILLION Total U.S. rice use for 2001/02 is projected at 204.9 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month and almost identical to a year earlier. Both domestic use and exports were raised this month. Total domestic use (food, industrial, and residual plus seed use) is projected at a record 123.9 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month and 2 percent larger than a year earlier. The upward revision was based on expectations of continued growth in per capita consumption. Food, industrial, and residual estimated at a record 120 million cwt accounts for both the month-to-month and annual increase. Seed use remains forecast at 3.9 million cwt, down 110,000 cwt from 2000/01. Total exports are projected at 81 million cwt, up almost 7 percent from last month's projection but 2 million cwt below a year earlier. The upward revision is based on larger supplies and lower U.S. prices. Milled rice exports, raised 5 million cwt to 56 million, account for all of the month-to- month increase. Rough rice exports remain projected at 25 million cwt, unchanged from 2000/01. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 24.2 million cwt, up 10 percent from last month a result of larger supplies but fractionally below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11.8 percent, up .8 percentage point from June and virtually unchanged from a year earlier. As of July 8, about 14 percent of the U.S. rice crop had headed, fractionally below the 5-year average and 4 percentage points below a year earlier. In Texas, 52 percent of the crop had headed, even with the 5-year average but well below a year earlier's 72 percent. Nearly 51 percent of Louisiana's crop had headed, unchanged from a year earlier but ahead of the 5-year average of 45 percent. By July 8, about 9 percent of Mississippi's crop and 2 percent of Arkansas's crop had headed, both States a little below their 5- year average. None of the California crop had headed by July 8. Harvesting is expected to begin in Texas and Southwest Louisiana by mid-July. Thus far in the 2001 growing season, the overall condition of the U.S. rice crop has been quite favorable. For the week ending July 8, nearly 74 percent of the U.S. crop was rated in good or excellent condition, well above a year earlier's 64 percent. Both Arkansas and Mississippi reported more than 20 percent of their crop in excellent condition. U.S. 2001/02 MEDIUM/SHORT GRAIN SUPPLIES LOWEST SINCE 1989 Total medium/short grain supplies for 2001/02 are projected at 58.1 million cwt, down 9 percent from last month's forecast and the smallest since 1989. Medium/short grain supplies are more than 21 percent below a year earlier. A 28-percent drop in production more than offset a 15-percent increase in beginning stocks to 11.9 million cwt. Medium/short grain imports are projected to remain at 1.2 million cwt. Total medium/short grain use is projected at 49.9 million cwt, down 9 percent from last month's forecast and more than 19 percent below a year earlier. Both domestic use and exports were lowered this month and are projected to be substantially below a year earlier. The reductions were a result of much tighter supplies and expectations of some price strengthening for medium grain rice in 2001/02. Domestic use was lowered 10 percent to 34.9 million cwt, down almost 19 percent from a year earlier but about the same as 1999/2000. Medium/short grain exports were lowered 1 million cwt to 15 million, down 4 million from a year earlier and the smallest since 1992/93. Ending stocks of medium/short grain rice are projected at 8.2 million cwt, down 6 percent from last month and 31 percent below a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 16.5 percent, up more than a half a percentage point from last month but below a year earlier's 19.3 percent. Ending stocks for medium/short grain rice are the second lowest since USDA first reported supply and use tables by class of rice in 1982/83. Total long grain supply in 2001/02 was revised up 9 percent to 169.5 million cwt, a result of a 10-percent increase in production and a slightly higher import projection. On an annual basis, long grain supply is up more than 10 percent from 2000/01, with a 16-percent larger crop accounting for most of the increase. Beginning stocks, projected at 11 million cwt, are almost 30 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1996/97. Total long grain use was raised 11 million cwt this month to 155 million, more than 9 percent higher than a year earlier and the second highest on record. Both domestic use and exports were raised this month. Domestic use of long grain rice was increased 5 million cwt to 89 million, a record and more than 13 percent above a year earlier. Some shifting to long grain from medium/short by food processors and industrial users is expected given the tight supply situation forecast for medium grain rice. Long grain exports were raised 6 million cwt to 66 million, about 3 percent above a year earlier. Larger supplies and slightly lower U.S. prices are behind the higher long grain export projection. Ending stocks were raised more than 23 percent from last month to 14.5 million, nearly a third higher than a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 9.4 percent, up more than a percentage point from last month and well above a year earlier's 7.7 percent. There were two revisions to the 2000/01 U.S. supply and use projections. First, imports were raised 200,00 cwt to 10.5 million based on deliveries through April. Long grain accounted for all of the increase. Second, seed use for the 2001/02 crop was raised 212,000 cwt to more than 4 million based on the larger 2001 plantings. All of the increase was for long grain. As of June 28, combined exports and outstanding sales of U.S. rice reported in USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales totaled 2.78 million tons (product- weight), down almost 8 percent from a year earlier. U.S. Export Sales does not include food donations. While outstanding sales were reported at 328,700 tons 45 percent higher than a year earlier exports were reported at 2.45 million tons, down more than 12 percent from a year earlier. Through June 28, combined outstanding sales and exports of U.S. rice were behind a year earlier to the European Union, Turkey, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. In contrast, combined outstanding sales and exports to the Western Hemisphere were ahead of a year earlier, especially to Mexico (mostly rough rice) and Canada (mostly milled rice). U.S. 2000/01 SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE LOWERED TO $5.55 PER CWT The 2000/01 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $5.55 per cwt, down from $5.65 a month earlier. The revision was based on reported monthly cash prices through mid-June and expectations regarding prices through July. The SAFP is the lowest to date since 1986/87. An upward revision in 2001/02 supplies and a lowered 2000/01 SAFP are responsible for a cut in the 2001/02 SAFP projection to $5.15 to $5.65, down 10 cents on both the high and low end from a month earlier. Reported monthly cash prices dropped substantially in May and the first half of June. Last month, USDA estimated June's mid-month price at $4.95 per cwt and lowered May's to $5.15 from a preliminary $5.67. These are the lowest reported monthly prices since the summer of 1993. Despite smaller total supplies, prices have remained below a year earlier since the start of the 2000/01 market year in August. Reported monthly cash prices through mid-June have averaged $5.54 per cwt. There has been little reported change since last month in quoted prices for rough rice in the South or in California. In the South, supplies of high- quality long grain rice are tight, especially in Texas and Southwest Louisiana where very little rough rice remains in farmers' hands. Cash prices in both regions were quoted around $6 per cwt for the week ending July 3, unchanged from a month earlier. In the Delta, cash prices for long grain rough rice were quoted at $5.85 to $6.00 per cwt in early July, virtually unchanged from a month earlier. Prices for medium grain rough rice are well below prices for long grain. In the Delta, prices for medium grain rough rice quoted at $3.85 per cwt for the week ending July 10 are unchanged from a month earlier. Prices have dropped substantially since the start of the 2000/01 market year and remain well below prices for long grain rice. In California, prices for medium grain rough rice were calculated at around $3.30 per cwt for the week ending July 10, unchanged from a month earlier but nearly $5 below a year earlier. Because the bulk of California's rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of milled rice. INTERNATIONAL PRICES POST SMALL RISE ON RECENT SALES Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled and parboiled rice have continued a slow rise that began in mid-April. A large sale of high-quality regular milled white rice to Iran, continued purchases of parboiled rice by Nigeria, and heavy shipments of brokens to Senegal are behind the recent rise in prices. However, except for parboiled rice, prices are still only $10 to $12 per cwt above 20-year lows reported in early April, a result of large supplies in most exporting countries and no growth in global import demand. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $180 per ton for the week ending July 9, up about $6 from a month earlier and $12 above the mid-April low. Prices for Thailand's parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were reported at $196 per ton for the week ending July 9, up $6 from a week earlier and more than $30 higher than prices reported in mid-April. The relatively large rise in parboiled price is primarily due to a resumption of purchases by Nigeria this spring, the world's largest importer of parboiled rice. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A.1 Special 100-percent brokens) were reported at $140 per ton for the week ending July 9, up $10 to $15 from a month earlier, a result of large sales to Senegal. In contrast to non-fragrant rice, prices for Thailand's premium jasmine rice remain at near-historic lows, a result of large supplies and weaker global demand. Prices were quoted at $293 per ton for the week ending July 9, up about $5 from late June but unchanged from a month earlier. Prices are still more than $200 below prices in mid-October and well below the $570 per ton quoted a year ago. Prices for Vietnam's 5-percent brokens were quoted at $152 per ton for the week ending July 10, up $4 from a week earlier but nearly unchanged from May and June. Despite heavy loadings for shipments to the Philippines, Cuba, Iraq, and Africa, prices remain pressured by large supplies and no growth in global trade. Vietnam's rice is currently trading around $19 per ton below prices for similar quality Thai rice, up from about $11 a month earlier. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, domestic sales) have remained at $276 per ton since October. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was $96 per ton for the week ending July 9, down from more than $100 a month earlier but well above the 1999/2000 average of $54. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) have declined substantially since the start of the 2000/01 market year. Prices were quoted at $243 per ton for the week ending July 9, unchanged from a month earlier but $22 below prices in early April. Prices were quoted at $419 in August. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest in more than two decades. The price decline is primarily in response to a record California crop. GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION PROJECTED TO BE FLAT IN 2001/02 Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 395.7 million tons (milled basis), down slightly from last month's forecast but virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Global consumption is projected at a record 405.7 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from a month earlier and 4.7 million larger than a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at 127.2 million tons, up almost 1 million tons from last month's forecast but 10 million tons below a year earlier. China accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year reduction in global stocks. For 2001/02, production increases in some countries were virtually offset by reductions in others. Several major rice producing countries are projected to harvest larger crops in 2001/02. India, the world's second largest rice producing country, is projected to produce 87 million tons of rice in 2001/02, up 1.5 million from a year earlier. The larger crop is a result of a higher average yield, area is projected to be slightly smaller. Indonesia, the third largest producing country, is projected to increase production 500,000 tons to 32.5 million, a result of a higher yield. For both India and Indonesia, 2001/02 production is projected to be below their 1999/2000 records. Vietnam is projected to produce a record 21-million-ton crop, up 182,000 from a year earlier, with both area and yield up slightly. U.S. production is projected to rise 60,000 tons to 6.16 million due to larger plantings. Three importers are expected to increase production fractionally; the Philippines to 8.1 million tons, Brazil to 7.35 million, and South Korea to 5.3 million. In contrast, production in several other major producing countries is projected to decline in 2001/02. China's production is projected to drop more than 1.3 million tons to 130.2 million due to a 300,000-hectare cut in area. This is the fourth consecutive year of declining rice production in China. A lower yield is responsible for a 500,000-ton drop in Bangladesh's production to 23.5 million tons. Australia's crop is projected to drop 269,000 tons to 1 million due to smaller plantings and a lower yield. Weaker plantings resulting from severe drought are behind a 200,000-ton drop in Pakistan's production to 4.5 million. Japan's rice production is projected to drop 136,000 tons to 8.5 million, a result of continued contraction in area. North Korea's crop is projected at 1.3 million tons, a 50,000-ton drop and the smallest since 1996. For Thailand and Burma, production is projected to remain unchanged from 2000/01. Global rice production for 2000/01 is projected at 395.5 million tons (milled basis), down 1.1 million from a month earlier. Indonesia accounts for the bulk of the reduction. Indonesia's crop was lowered 1.1 million tons to 32 million based on a lower area and a weaker average yield. Nicaragua's crop was cut 24,000 tons to 103,000 million due to a much smaller yield; area was actually increased. In Honduras, rice production was dropped fractionally to 8,000 tons due to smaller area. Note several back-year production changes for both Nicaragua and Honduras. In contrast, Argentina's 2000/01 production was raised 87,000 tons to 487,000 based on larger area and a much higher yield. Portugal's crop was raised 14,000 tons to 104,000 due to a much higher yield. GLOBAL RICE TRADE TO DROP FRACTIONALLY IN CALENDAR YEAR 2002 Global rice trade for calendar year 2002 is projected at 22.1 million tons (milled basis), down fractionally from a year earlier and the fourth consecutive year of declining global trade. Thailand is projected to remain the largest exporter, with shipments expected to remain at a near-record 6.7 million tons. Vietnam, the world's second largest exporter, is projected to ship 4.3 million tons, up 300,000 from a year earlier and the second largest on record. Despite a smaller crop, China is projected to expand exports to 2 million tons in 2002, up 200,000 from this year. Although projected to rise 200,000 tons to 1 million in 2002, India's exports remain well below levels achieved in recent years despite record supplies and efforts by the government to subsidize exports. Australia's exports are projected to rise 25,000 tons to a record 700,000, a result of large supplies. In contrast, several countries are projected to reduce exports in 2002. Pakistan's exports are projected to drop 250,000 tons to 2 million due to a smaller crop. Burma is projected to export 250,000 tons, down 100,000 from 2001, a result of stagnant production and growing domestic use. South American exports are projected to drop in 2002. Uruguay's exports are projected to drop 50,000 tons to 650,000, a result of a smaller crop. Argentina's to drop 25,000 tons to 250,000; also due to weaker production. Guyana is projected to export 150,000 tons, a 25,000-ton drop from this year, a result of weak production growth and lack of price competitiveness. U.S. exports are projected to drop 50,000 tons to 2.6 million, a result of very strong price competition in the global market. On the import side, Indonesia's imports are projected to increase 300,000 tons to 1.6 million in 2002, as consumption growth is outstripping production. Iran is projected to increase imports 250,000 tons to 1.25 million, a result of 3 years of declining production. Bangladesh is projected to increase imports 200,000 tons to 500,000, primarily a result of a smaller crop. For 2001, global trade was raised fractionally to almost 22.3 million tons. A 75,000-ton increase in exports by Argentina to 275,000 was nearly offset by a 30,000-ton drop in exports by Taiwan to 90,000. On the import side, Bangladesh's imports were raised 50,000 tons to 300,000. In contrast, Saudi Arabia's imports were lowered 25,000 tons to 950,000. Both import revisions were based on deliveries to date. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on August 13, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605-6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on July 13, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. Information contacts: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present ERS on the World Wide Web NOW AVAILABLE A newly designed, newly structured ERS website. ERS' newly redesigned and restructured website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. 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Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= TOTAL RICE Percent ARP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.250 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.223 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,019 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.3 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 194.0 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.5 10.8 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.8 229.1 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 117.5 120.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.9 Total Domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 121.5 123.9 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 83.0 81.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 25.0 25.0 Milled 5/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 58.0 56.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 204.5 204.9 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 24.3 24.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 11.9 11.8 $/cwt Average farm price 6/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.55 5.15-5.65 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 70.5 70.0 ============================================================================= N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | ---------------- -------------------- --------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | August | 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,215 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 5.78 10,503 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 13,833 9.31 12,286 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 12,811 9.02 11,896 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 14,000 9.10 13,948 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 18,260 9.09 13,337 February | 5.72 12,296 5.88 13,340 9.02 12,573 March | 5.55 11,549 5.71 11,714 8.93 12,968 April | 5.59 11,074 5.75 8,860 8.49 9,169 May | 5.15 8,994 5.63 9,966 8.21 9,145 June | 4.95 1/ 11,787 1/ 5.80 9,698 8.25 9,822 July | 5.65 9,361 8.26 9,329 | Average 2/ | 5.54 11,787 5.93 11,797 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ | 5.55 4/ 141,561 135,386 | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to 2000/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | $/cwt (rough basis) | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 2.94 2.57 2.55 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 2.96 2.59 2.57 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July 1/ | 2.93 2.59 2.53 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.31 2.98 2.96 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Country 2000/01 | 1999/00 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 or as of | as of region 06/28/01 | 06/28/00 Final Final Final Final ============================================================================= | | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 379 | 402 387 329 349 348 Other Western Europe 15 | 20 29 29 28 85 Turkey 171 | 223 286 113 109 246 Eastern Europe 1 | 1 5 6 0 5 Former Soviet Union 46 | 57 66 52 16 29 Japan 296 | 372 302 330 269 234 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 335 | 423 515 275 242 380 Jordan 23 | 21 44 41 59 88 Indonesia 0 | 118 117 85 8 0 Saudi Arabia 146 | 188 155 106 121 160 | AFRICA 185 | 188 216 193 207 262 Cote d'Ivoire 12 | 26 15 15 34 33 Ghana 71 | 66 81 58 66 66 Liberia 18 | 3 12 10 8 9 South Africa 58 | 75 75 81 67 119 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,354 | 1,335 1,391 1,824 1,948 1,110 Brazil 0 | 5 2 556 29 9 Canada 118 | 104 184 176 177 170 Colombia 17 | 1 1 8 291 35 Costa Rica 82 | 84 84 41 102 55 Dominican Republic 21 | 36 56 72 114 25 Guatemala 38 | 44 42 28 28 35 Haiti 139 | 142 201 225 183 152 Honduras 106 | 111 99 76 49 35 Jamaica 32 | 29 31 13 27 27 Leeward & Windward Is. 5 | 14 6 12 21 16 Mexico 602 | 573 505 339 431 357 Nicaragua 97 | 85 89 68 40 51 Panama 7 | 12 5 6 86 1 Peru 1 | 19 24 130 127 64 El Salvador 60 | 53 47 33 47 24 Trinidad 9 | 0 0 23 21 21 Unknown 0 | 0 0 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 2/ 2,781 | 3,020 3,039 2,929 2,780 2,254 | Total Census Bureau 2,650 2/ | 2,800 2/ 3,313 3,169 3,185 2,714 ============================================================================= N/A = Not applicable. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" are final exports, including food aid donations, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census total is the official total. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales reported by U.S. Export Sales. The U.S. Export Sales report does not include food aid donations. Both Census and U.S. Export Sales report on a product-weight basis. 2/ USDA market year forecast, milled basis. Table 5--U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% Marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------ A-1 7/brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 180 211 417 161 148 144 171 125 257 Aug 1999 321 518 390 253 249 237 216 204 230 Sep 1999 309 507 386 235 256 217 198 186 221 Oct 1999 309 458 386 223 257 205 186 170 201 Nov 1999 300 445 386 236 268 216 194 172 217 Dec 1999 298 445 393 240 252 221 192 155 227 Jan 2000 289 441 406 248 248 228 194 158 227 Feb 2000 284 441 408 252 248 225 191 158 208 Mar 2000 276 441 408 235 238 209 180 152 194 Apr 2000 269 441 408 225 229 200 173 148 175 May 2000 253 441 395 211 219 186 164 144 173 Jun 2000 248 441 386 210 218 183 161 140 175 Jul 2000 249 432 382 199 217 178 161 143 183 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 276 243 342 172 171 154 138 123 153 Jun 2001 276 243 342 177 180 158 144 130 154 Jul 2001 9/ 276 243 342 180 193 161 149 138 150 2000/01 9/ 272 313 357 184 186 167 149 132 164 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100-pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.0 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 149.0 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 9.3 9.6 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.7 169.5 Domestic use 4/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 78.7 89.0 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 64.0 66.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 142.7 155.0 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.0 14.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 7.7 9.4 Continued-- Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================= Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 45.0 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 73.1 71.9 59.6 63.3 73.7 58.1 Domestic use 4/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 42.8 34.9 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 19.0 15.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 61.8 49.9 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 8.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 19.3 16.5 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 ============================================================================= 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE