RICE OUTLOOK August 13, 2001 August 2001, ERS-RCS-0801 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 2001 SUMMARY: Domestic: The U.S. 2001/02 rice crop was raised 4.2 million hundredweight (cwt) to 198.2 million, a result of a 2-percent increase in yield to 6,151 pounds per acre, the second highest on record. This was the first survey-based yield estimate of the 2001 crop. Long grain production, projected at a record 152.9 million cwt, accounts for nearly all of the production increase. Larger supplies and expectations of weaker prices are behind a 3-million cwt increase in exports to 84 million cwt, unchanged from the 2000/01 revised projection. Long grain accounts for all of the increase in 2001/02 exports. Total ending stocks were raised fractionally to 24.3 million cwt, 1 million cwt above a year earlier. The 2001/02 season-average farm price was lowered 30 cents on both the high and low ends to $4.85 to $5.35 per cwt, the lowest since 1986/87. For 2000/01, total exports were raised 1 million cwt to 84 million, with milled rice accounting for all of the increase. Rough rice exports were lowered 1 million cwt to 24 million for 2000/01 and 2001/02. International: Global rice production for 2001/02 remains projected at 395.1 million tons, virtually unchanged from a year earlier but more than 3 percent below the 1999/2000 record high. There were few production revisions this month. A smaller Brazilian crop was nearly offset by larger crop projections for both the United States and the Dominican Republic. Global trade for 2002 was raised fractionally this month due to larger U.S. exports but world trade is still slightly below a year earlier. This is the fourth consecutive year of declining global trade. Global consumption is projected at a record 405.9 million tons, virtually unchanged from a month earlier. Ending stocks are projected at 127.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but more than 10 million tons below a year earlier. China accounts for the bulk of the decline in global ending stocks. U.S. 2001 CROP PROJECTION RAISED 2 PERCENT TO 198 MILLION CWT The 2001/02 U.S. rice crop is projected at 198.2 million cwt (rough basis), up more than 2 percent from last months forecast a result of a higher yield-and more than 4 percent larger than the 2000 crop. The U.S. Department of Agricultures (USDA) August Crop Production reported the U.S. average yield at 6,151 pounds per acre, up 132 pounds from last months forecast but 2 percent below a year earliers record. The 2001 yield is the second largest on record. Plantings remain estimated at 3.25 million acres, up 6 percent from a year earlier. Long grain accounts for nearly all of the production increase. Long grain production was raised almost 3 percent to 152.9 million cwt, a record. Combined medium/short grain acreage was raised fractionally to 45.3 million cwt, down 27 percent from a year earlier. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year increase in rice plantings. Total rice acreage in Arkansas is estimated at 1.53 million acres, up 110,000 from a year earlier and second only to the 1999 record of 1.63 million. Louisianas 2001 rice plantings are estimated at 580,000 acres, up 95,000 from 2000. Drought and salt-water intrusion severely reduced Louisianas 2000 rice plantings. Rice plantings in Missouri are estimated at a record 210,000 acres, up 40,000 from a year earlier. Mississippis rice plantings are estimated at 240,000 acres, up 20,000 from a year earlier. At 215,000 acres, Texas rice plantings are unchanged from a year earlier. California is the only rice producing State to report smaller acreage in 2001. Plantings are estimated at 475,000 acres, a 75,000-acre drop from a year earlier and the lowest since 1995. Low prices for medium grain, higher costs, and concerns over water availability are behind the cut in Californias rice acreage. Based on farmer surveys in early June, yields in 2001 are estimated to be below a year earlier in Arkansas, California, and Texas. California is reporting the largest drop in yield, with an average yield of 7,850 pounds per acre, 90 pounds below a year earlier and well below the 1992 and 1994 records of 8,500 pounds. Arkansas yield is estimated at 6,050 pounds per acre, down 60 pounds from a year earlier. In Texas, yields are projected at 6,500 pounds, down 200 from a year earliers record. In contrast, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri are all expected to achieve record yields in 2001. Mississippis yield is estimated at 6,000 pounds per acre, up 100 pounds from a year earlier and even with the 1996 record. Rice yields in Missouri are estimated at 5,750 pounds per acre, a 50-pound drop from 2000. Louisianas 2001 yield is estimated at 5,100 pounds per acre, up 20 pounds from 2000. Rice production is projected higher this year for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. Arkansas accounts for the largest share of production growth, with production projected at almost 92 million cwt, 5.8 million above a year earlier and second only to the 1999 record. Louisianas rice crop is projected at 29.3 million cwt, up 4.9 million from a year earlier and a near-record. Production in Missouri is projected at a record 11.8 million cwt, a 2.2-million cwt increase. Mississippis crop is projected at 14.2 million cwt, up 1.4 million from 2000. In contrast, production is projected to drop this year in California and Texas. Californias crop is projected at 37 million cwt, a 6.5-million-cwt drop from a year earliers record. Rice production in Texas is projected at 13.9-million cwt, down 400,000 cwt from 2001 and the smallest in 40 years. Total supply for 2001/02 is projected at 232.3 million cwt, up more than 1 percent from last months forecast and almost 2 percent above a year earlier. Total supplies are the second highest on record. Imports remain projected at a record 10.75 million cwt. Beginning stocks are projected at 23.3 million cwt, 1 million below last months forecast and more than 15 percent below a year earlier. U.S. 2001/02 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED 3 MILLION CWT TO 84 MILLION Total U.S. rice use for 2001/02 is projected at 208 million cwt, up almost 2 percent from last months forecast and more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Exports account for nearly all of the month-to-month increase. Total domestic use (food, industrial, and residual plus seed use) is projected at a record 124 million cwt, up fractionally from last month due to a slight increase in seed use. Seed use was raised fractionally to slightly more than 4 million cwt, unchanged from 2000/01. Food, industrial, and residualestimated at a record 120 million cwt accounts for the year-to-year increase. Total exports for 2001/02 are projected at 84 million cwt, up 3 million from last months forecast and unchanged from a year earliers revised level. The upward revision is based on larger U.S. supplies and expectations of lower U.S. prices in 2001/02, especially for long grain rice, the dominant class of rice grown in the United States. Milled rice exports, raised 4 million cwt to 60 million, account for all of the month-to-month increase. Rough rice exports are projected at 24 million cwt, down 1 million from last month and unchanged from the 2000/01 revised level. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 24.3 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last month but 1 million cwt above a year earliers revised level. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11.7 percent, almost unchanged from last month but up from 11.4 percent a year earlier. As of August 5, about 7 percent of the U.S. rice crop had been harvested, slightly behind a year earlier and almost even with the 5-year average. In Louisiana, harvest was a third complete, well behind a year earliers 48 percent but slightly ahead of the 5-year average. In Texas, harvest was 15 percent complete, well behind a year earliers 27 percent but even with the States 5- year average. Harvest had not yet begun in Arkansas, California, Mississippi, or Missouri. About 72 percent of the U.S. crop had headed by August 5, ahead of both a year earlier and the 5-year average. Heading was nearly complete in Louisiana and Texas, with both States ahead of their 5-year averages. In Arkansas, 78 percent of the crop had headed, in Mississippi 82 percent, with both States well ahead of their 5-year averages. About a fourth of Californias crop had headed, 5 percentage points ahead of both a year earlier and the States 5-year average. Since the start of the 2001 growing season the overall condition of the U.S. rice crop has been quite favorable. For the week ending August 5, nearly 72 percent of the U.S. crop was rated in good or excellent condition, above a year earliers 65 percent. Mississippi and Texas reported almost 90 percent of their crop in good or excellent condition. U.S. 2001/02 LONG GRAIN SUPPLIES SECOND LARGEST ON RECORD Total U.S. long grain supply in 2001/02 was revised up almost 2 percent to 172.4 million cwt, up 12 percent from a year earlier and just fractionally below the 1999/2000 record. An almost 3-percent increase in long grain production to 152.9 million cwt accounted for the monthly revision. Beginning stocks were lowered 1 million cwt to 10 million, 36 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since USDA first reported supply and use estimates for rice by class in 1982/83. Imports remain projected at nearly 9.6 million cwt, a record. Total long grain use was raised more than 3 million cwt this month to 158.1 million, 10 percent higher than a year earlier and the highest on record. Exports account for nearly all of the month-to-month increase. Domestic use of long grain rice was increased fractionally to 89.1 million cwt, a record and more than 13 percent above a year earlier. Some shifting to long grain from medium/short by industrial users is expected given the tight supply situation forecast for medium grain rice in 2001/02. Long grain exports were raised 3 million cwt to 69 million, more than 6 percent above a year earlier. Larger supplies and lower U.S. prices are behind the higher long grain export projection. Ending stocks were lowered fractionally from last month to 14.3 million, nearly 44 percent higher than a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to- use ratio is 9.1 percent, down slightly from last month but up more than 2 percentage points from a year earlier. Total medium/short grain supply for 2001/02 is projected at 58.5 million cwt, up fractionally from a last months forecast but almost 21 percent below a year earlier. A 27-percent drop in production from a year earlier more than offset an almost 15-percent increase in beginning stocks to 11.9 million cwt. Medium/short grain imports remain projected at 1.2 million cwt. Total medium/short grain use remains projected at 49.9 million cwt, down 19 percent from a year earlier. Both domestic use and exports are projected to be substantially below a year earlier, a result of much tighter supplies and expectations of some price strengthening for medium grain rice in 2001/02. Domestic use remains projected at 34.9 million cwt, down 19 percent from a year earlier but about the same as 1999/2000. Medium/short grain exports are projected at 15 million cwt, down 4 million from a year earlier and the smallest since 1992/93. The global market for medium grain rice is expected to be extremely competitive due to large supplies in competing exportersprimarily Australia and Egypt and little growth in import demand. Ending stocks of medium/short grain rice are projected at 8.6 million cwt, up 4 percent from last month but 28 percent below a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 17.2 percent, up from 16.5 percent last month but below a year earliers 19.3 percent. Ending stocks for medium/short grain rice are the second lowest since USDA first reported supply and use tables by class of rice in 1982/83. The one revision to the 2000/01 U.S. supply and use projections was a 1-million- cwt increase in exports to 84 million. Milled rice exports raised 2 million cwt to 60 million accounted for all of the increase. Rough rice exports were lowered 1 million cwt to 24 million. The revisions were based on Bureau of the Census shipment data through May 2001. All of the increase was for long grain exports, projected at 65 million cwt. The net result of the higher export forecast was a 1-million cwt drop in ending stocks to 23.3 million. Long grain accounted for all of the stocks reduction. Long grain ending stocks were lowered 1 million to 10 million cwt, the smallest since 1982/83. According to USDAs weekly U.S. Export Sales, the 2001/02 market year began with 216,400 tons of outstanding sales from 2000/01, 43 percent higher than a year earlier. Uzbekistan, Mexico, and Nicaragua account for the bulk of the higher carryover this year. For the 2000/01 market year, U.S. Export Sales reports total U.S. exports at 2.65 million tons (product-weight), 13 percent below a year earlier. The European Union, Turkey, Japan, Mexico, and Indonesia account for most of the weaker reported exports in 2000/01. 2001/02 U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE DROPPED TO $4.85 to $5.35 Reported monthly cash prices for U.S. rough rice have dropped substantially since May and are the lowest in more than 7 years. Last month, USDA estimated Julys mid-month price at $5.01 per cwt and revised Junes price to $5.01 from a preliminary $4.95. These are the lowest reported monthly cash prices since the summer of 1993. Prices have remained below a year earlier since the start of the 2000/01 market year last August. Reported monthly cash prices through mid- July averaged $5.53 per cwt. The 2001/02 season-average farm price (SAFP) was lowered this month to $4.85 to $5.35 from $5.15 to $5.65 last month. A larger 2001 crop projection was behind the revision. The 2001/02 SAFP is the lowest since 1986/87. The 2000/01 SAFP remains projected at $5.55 per cwt, down from $5.93 a year earlier. The U.S. SAFP has declined every year since 1997/98. In the South, reported cash prices for long grain rough rice have dropped since last month as harvest continues along the Gulf Coast and will start this month in the Delta. In both Texas and Southwest Louisiana, cash prices were reported at $5 per cwt for the week ending August 7, down nearly $1 since mid-July. Supplies of high-quality long grain rice were very tight along the Gulf Coast prior to the start of the 2001 harvest in July. In the Delta which accounts for the bulk of the southern rice crop reported prices for long grain rice for the week ending August 7 were around $4.50 per cwt, a drop of almost $1.50 since mid-July. These are the lowest reported cash prices for long grain rice since the mid-1980s. In contrast, prices for California medium grain rice have risen slightly since mid-July, a result of a large sale to Uzbekistan and expectations of a smaller California crop in 2001. Medium grain accounts for the bulk of Californias rice crop. Prices for California medium grain rough rice were calculated at around $3.65 per cwt for the week ending August 7, up more than 30 cents from mid-July. Because the bulk of Californias rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of milled rice. In the Delta, prices for medium grain rough rice quoted at $4 per cwt for the week ending August 7 are up 10 to 15 cents from a month earlier, primarily due to much smaller plantings this year. Arkansas and Louisiana account for nearly all the southern medium grain crop. PRICES FOR THAI PARBOILED RICE CONTINUE TO RISE Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled white rice have declined since July, primarily due to a lack of major new sales and expectations that the Thai Government may soon release large rice stocks into the market. Prices had been boosted in June and July by large shipments of high-quality regular milled white rice to Iran and Iraq. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100- percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $170 per ton for the week ending August 6, down $10 from a month earlier and one of the lowest reported weekly prices in nearly two decades. In contrast to regular milled white rice, prices for Thailands parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) have continued to rise since mid-April, a result of large purchases by Nigeria, the largest import market for parboiled rice. Prices were quoted at $200 per ton for the week ending August 6, up $10 from a month earlier and nearly $30 higher than in late May. Prices for lower quality Thai rice (A.1 Special 100-percent brokens) were reported at $137 per ton for the week ending August 6, up slightly from a month earlier and $10 higher than June. Steady shipments to Senegal account for most of the price strength. Prices for Thailands premium jasmine rice continue to decline, a result of large supplies and weaker global demand. Prices were quoted at $282 per ton for the week ending August 6, down about $10 from a month earlier and almost $250 per ton below prices in mid-October. Prices for Thai jasmine rice are the lowest in decades. In contrast to Thailand, Vietnams prices for regular milled white rice have risen since early June, a result of strong shipments from earlier sales and, more recently, logistical difficulties stemming from floods. Prices for Vietnams 5-percent brokens were quoted at $170 per ton for the week ending August 7, up more than $20 from early July and the highest since last December. Iraq, Cuba, Africa, and the Philippines account for the bulk of recent heavy shipments. Vietnams rice is currently trading a few dollars above prices for similar quality Thai rice. More typically, Vietnams rice trades at a discount to Thai rice, a result of quality differences. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, domestic sales) remain at $276 per ton, unchanged since October. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4- percent brokens has widened slightly since July as Thai prices have dropped. For the week ending August 6, the difference was $104 per ton, up $5 to $10 from July and well above the 1999/2000 average of $54. The difference has hovered around $100 per ton since late March. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) remain at $243 per ton, unchanged since early May but well below the $419 reported at the beginning of the 2000/01 market year. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest in more than two decades. The price decline is primarily in response to a record California crop in 2000. Prices for California rice are expected to strengthen this year in response to a smaller crop. BRAZILS 2000/01 AND 2001/02 RICE PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWERED Global rice production for 2001/02 is projected at 395.7 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from last month or a year earlier. However, production remains more than 3 percent below the 1999/2000 record. Global consumption is projected at a record 405.9 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but almost 5 million tons larger than a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at 127.4 million tons, up fractionally from last month but more than 10 million tons below a year earlier. China accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year reduction in global stocks. There were only three production revisions this month for 2001/02. Brazils production was lowered 150,000 tons to 7.2 million, a result of lower area and weaker yields. Brazils 2000/01 crop was also lowered. Offsetting some of this reduction was a 90,000-ton increase in U.S. production to almost 6.3 million, a result of a higher yield. Area was unchanged. In addition, the Dominican Republics rice production was raised 40,000 tons to 290,000 based on a higher yield. Area was actually lowered. Please note rice area, yield, and production in the Dominican Republic were revised this month for 1999/2000 and 2000/01 as well. Global 2000/01 production was raised fractionally this month to 395.6 million tons. However, the crop is almost 12.8 million tons below a year earliers record. India accounts for most of the month-to-month increase. Indias production was raised 800,000 tons to 86.3 million based on government data indicating a higher yield. There was no change in area. In addition, rice production in the Dominican Republic was raised 20,000 tons to 270,000 due to larger plantings. In contrast, Vietnams rice production was reduced 288,000 tons to 20.53 million due to smaller plantings and weaker yield. Vietnams 1999/2000 crop was revised this month also. Brazils production was lowered 286,000 tons to almost 7.1 million tons due to a smaller area and weaker yield. The reductions in Brazils rice crop are not expected to boost imports due to large supplies of rice in Brazil. GLOBAL RICE TRADE PROJECTED TO DROP IN 2001 AND 2002 Global rice trade for calendar year 2002 is projected at 22.1 million tons (milled basis), up fractionally from last months forecast but down more than 100,000 tons from a year earlier and the fourth consecutive year of declining global rice trade. The only revision on the export side was a 50,000-ton increase in U.S. exports to 2.65 million, unchanged from a year earlier. The increase was based on a larger 2001 crop and higher 2001/02 U.S exports. On the import side, Colombias 2002 imports were lowered 30,000 tons to 100,000 based on reduced 2001 imports. The Government of Colombia has indicated its intentions to limit rice imports during the second half of 2001. For calendar year 2001, global trade remains projected at 22.3 million tons, down almost 3 percent from a year earlier. There were no changes to 2001 exporters. On the import side, the Dominican Republics imports were lowered 50,000 tons to 35,000 based on larger production. In addition, Colombias imports were lowered 30,000 tons to 100,000 based on government intentions to limit imports during the remainder of 2001. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on September 13, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605-6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on August 14, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1998/99 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present NOW AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET: Debate on the 2002 farm bill is intensifying, with a wide range of ideas emerging on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Rice: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report is the first of the occasional Rice Outlook supplements that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Rice Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth special reports on the rice sector. ERS ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB: ERS newly redesigned and restructured website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. It is greatly expanded including 19 commodity briefing rooms, 12 country briefing rooms, and a host of issue-oriented rooms, covering issues ranging from analysis of the World Trade Organization to topics such as risk management, farm structure, and conservation and environmental policies. Come visit us and see for yourself! Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= TOTAL RICE Percent ARP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.250 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.223 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,151 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 23.3 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 198.2 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.5 10.8 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.8 232.3 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 117.5 120.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.0 Total Domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 121.5 124.0 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 84.0 84.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 24.0 24.0 Milled 5/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 60.0 60.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 205.5 208.0 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 23.3 24.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 11.4 11.7 $/cwt Average farm price 6/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.55 4.85-5.35 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 69.3 69.5 ============================================================================= N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent.6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1998/99 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2000/01 1999/2000 1998/99 Month | ---------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | August | 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,516 9.01 9,743 September | 5.72 10,228 5.78 44,994 9.42 11,170 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 11,995 9.31 12,286 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 10,575 9.02 11,896 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 10,828 9.10 13,948 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 14,812 9.09 13,337 February | 5.72 12,296 5.88 9,863 9.02 12,573 March | 5.55 11,549 5.71 8,224 8.93 12,968 April | 5.59 11,074 5.75 5,589 8.49 9,169 May | 5.15 8,994 5.63 5,893 8.21 9,145 June | 5.01 7,877 5.80 4,790 8.25 9,822 July | 5.01 1/ 11,432 1/ 5.65 6,406 8.26 9,329 | | Average 2/ | 5.53 11,432 5.93 11,957 8.89 11,282 | Total 3/ | 5.55 4/ 143,485 135,386 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices (rough basis), 1998/99 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | $/cwt | August | 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 8.77 7.71 7.56 September | 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 8.90 7.76 7.61 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 8.42 7.55 7.40 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 8.03 7.48 7.31 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 7.54 7.20 7.03 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 7.54 7.09 6.92 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 7.33 7.08 7.14 March | 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 6.85 6.86 6.92 April | 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 6.43 6.70 6.76 May | 2.94 2.57 2.55 4.09 3.58 3.72 6.49 6.76 6.81 June | 2.96 2.59 2.57 4.09 3.40 3.53 6.56 6.75 6.80 July 1/ | 2.93 2.55 2.53 4.09 3.48 3.61 6.56 6.69 6.75 | Average 2/| 3.31 2.98 2.96 4.59 4.22 4.25 7.45 7.14 7.08 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4--U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Country 2001/02 | 2000/01 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 or as of | as of Market Market Market Market region 08/02/01 | 08/03/00 year year year year ============================================================================= 1,000 metric tons | European Union 52 | 59 364 387 340 324 Other Western Europe 3 | 2 13 18 20 17 Turkey 19 | 12 171 231 100 115 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 1 1 0 0 Former Soviet Union 54 | 0 1 57 43 2 Japan 2 | 1 296 374 324 250 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 34 | 76 318 395 203 183 Jordan 10 | 0 14 21 41 42 Indonesia 0 | 0 23 118 26 0 Saudi Arabia 22 | 37 140 151 106 96 | AFRICA 24 | 58 182 171 157 171 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 6 12 20 0 31 Ghana 4 | 3 73 70 61 64 Liberia 9 | 0 9 3 0 0 South Africa 7 | 31 57 70 81 67 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 185 | 57 1,305 1,410 1,741 1,718 Brazil 0 | 1 2 4 555 28 Canada 25 | 15 100 102 122 107 Colombia 0 | 0 17 1 11 297 Costa Rica 0 | 0 82 84 41 102 Dominican Republic 21 | 1 56 56 61 93 Guatemala 2 | 1 36 42 29 25 Haiti 13 | 0 158 144 164 100 Honduras 6 | 5 106 114 47 63 Jamaica 0 | 6 32 35 15 26 Leeward & Windward Is. 2 | 3 4 11 11 16 Mexico 81 | 20 583 629 417 397 Nicaragua 40 | 5 85 95 61 35 Panama 5 | 0 2 15 8 88 Peru 0 | 0 1 19 118 99 El Salvador 7 | 0 51 55 30 49 Trinidad 0 | 0 9 0 23 21 Unknown 14 | 0 0 0 0 0 | TOTAL 387 | 264 2,651 3,044 2,929 2,780 | ============================================================================= N/A = Not available. 1/ Columns labeled "Market year" are total August-July exports reported in U.S. Export Sales. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales at a particular date. U.S. Export Sales reports on a product-weight basis. Food aid donations are not included in U.S. Export Sales. Table 5--U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ ---------------------------- ------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ----------- A-1 7/ broken year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 180 211 417 161 148 144 171 125 257 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 276 243 342 172 171 154 138 123 153 June 2001 276 243 342 177 180 158 144 130 154 July 2001 276 243 342 177 198 160 148 137 156 2000/01 272 313 357 184 187 167 149 132 165 Aug 2001 276 243 342 172 200 156 146 137 170 2001/02 9/ 276 243 342 172 200 156 146 137 170 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100 pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4-percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100-percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 10.0 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 152.9 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 9.3 9.6 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.7 172.4 Domestic use 4/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 78.7 89.1 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 65.0 69.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 143.7 158.1 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 10.0 14.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 6.9 9.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================= Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 45.3 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 73.4 58.5 Domestic use 4/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 42.8 34.9 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 19.0 15.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 61.8 49.9 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 8.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 19.3 17.2 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 ============================================================================= 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE