RICE OUTLOOK September 13, 2001 September 2001, ERS-RCS-0901 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 2001 SUMMARY: Domestic: The U.S. 2001/02 rough rice crop was raised 8.1 million hundredweight (cwt) to a record 206.3 million, a result of a 2-percent increase in both harvested area and average yield. Production was increased for all three classes of rice, with long grain accounting for the bulk of the upward revision. Beginning stocks for 2001/02 were raised 22 percent to 28.4 million cwt based on information from the August 2001 Rice Stocks report. Total domestic use was lowered 3 percent to 121.1 million cwt based on a reduced 2000/01 domestic use estimate. In contrast, 2001/02 exports were raised 2 million cwt to 86 million, with both rough and milled exports up 1 million cwt. Total ending stocks were raised 58 percent to 38.5 million cwt, the largest since 1992/93. The season-average farm price was lowered $1.10 per cwt on both the high and low end to $3.75 to $4.25, the lowest since 1986/87. International: Global rice production for 2001/02 is projected at 394.4 million tons (milled basis), down around 1.2 million from both last month and a year earlier. China and Egypt accounted for the bulk of the month- to-month reduction. In contrast, 2001/02 production forecasts for India, the United States, and Australia were raised this month. Global trade for calendar year 2002 was raised 275,000 tons to 22.4 million, fractionally above a year earlier. Export projections were raised this month for Burma, Egypt, and the United States. For 2001, global exports were lowered fractionally as higher shipments from Burma and Egypt were more than offset by smaller exports from Vietnam. The only 2001 import revision was a 175,000-ton increase for Bangladesh to 475,000. Global ending stocks are projected at 127.2 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but more than 10 million below a year earlier. Despite a small increase in Thai prices last month, global rice prices remain pressured by extremely large exportable supplies and only fractional growth in import demand. U.S. 2001 CROP FORECAST RAISED 4 PERCENT TO RECORD 206 MILLION CWT The 2001/02 U.S. rice crop is projected at a record 206.3 million cwt (rough basis), up 4 percent from last months forecast a result of larger area and a higher yield. The 2001 crop is 8 percent larger than a year earlier. The U.S. Department of Agricultures (USDA) September Crop Production reported 2001 plantings at 3.32 million acres, up 2 percent from a month earlier and more than 8 percent above 2000 plantings. In addition, the 2001 yield was revised up 121 pounds to 6,272 pounds per acre, fractionally below the 2000 record. Long grain accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month production increase. The 2001 long grain crop was raised more than 4 percent to a record 159.7 million, 24 percent larger than the 2000 crop. Medium grain production was revised up 3 percent to 44.9 million cwt, down 25 percent from a year earlier. Although the 2001 short grain crop was raised 2 percent to 1.8 million cwt, production is still 30 percent below a year earlier. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month increase in rice acreage. Total harvested rice acreage in Arkansas is estimated at 1.61 million acres, up 87,000 from the June Acreage report and just fractionally below the 1999 record of 1.63 million. Mississippis rice acreage was also raised this month, from 238,000 acres to 248,000. In contrast, Louisianas 2001 harvested area was lowered 30,000 acres to 545,000. On an annual basis, Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the 251,000-acre increase in total harvested area, with acreage up 197,000 acres from a year earlier. Harvested area is also up this year in Louisiana, Missouri, and Mississippi, with Missouris 205,000 acres a record. In contrast, at 214,000 acres, harvested area in Texas is flat. In California, harvested area is reported at 471,000 acres, down 77,000 from 2000. By class, long grain harvested area is estimated at 2.67 million acres, up 2 percent from the June Acreage report and almost 22 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain area is estimated at 625,000 acres, up 1 percent from June but down 26 percent from 2000. Average yield was raised this month in all States except Texas, where average yield remains unchanged from August. Mississippis yield was raised 300 pounds per acre to 6,300; Louisianas boosted 200 pounds to 5,300; Arkansas revised 100 pounds to 6,150, and Missouris increased 50 pounds to 5,800. Yields are estimated to be record high this year in Arkansas (tied with 1996 record), Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. On an annual basis, average yields are estimated to be up in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. In contrast, the 2001 yield is estimated to be below a year earlier in both California and Texas. Rice crops were raised this month for all States except Louisiana and Texas, with Arkansas and Missouri projected to harvest record crops. Arkansass 2001 rice crop was raised 6.9 million cwt to 98.8 million, Mississippis boosted 1.3 million cwt to 15.6 million, Californias increased 235,000 cwt to 37.2 million, and Missouris raised 102,000 cwt to 11.9 million. In contrast, the Texas crop remains estimated at 13.9 million cwt and Louisianas crop was revised down 440,000 cwt to 28.9 million. Rice production is up from a year earlier in all States except Texas where production is flat and Louisiana where production is down almost 2 percent. Total supply for 2001/02 is projected at a record 245.5 million cwt, up almost 6 percent from last months forecast and 7 percent above a year earlier. Imports remain projected at a record 10.75 million cwt, up more than 2 percent from a year earlier. Beginning stocks are estimated at 28.4 million cwt, up 22 percent from last months forecast and almost 4 percent higher than a year earlier. The 2001 beginning stocks estimate is based on information from USDAs August 2001 Rice Stocks report. U.S. 2001/02 EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED 2 MILLION CWT TO 86 MILLION Total U.S. rice use for 2001/02 is projected at 207.1 million cwt, down about a million cwt from last month but more than 3 percent higher than a year earlier. Domestic use accounts for all of the month-to-month reduction. Total domestic use was lowered more than 2 percent to 121.1 million cwt, still 4 percent above a year earliers revised estimate and just fractionally below the 1999/2000 record. Food, industrial, and residual projected at 117 million cwt accounts for all of this months downward revision in domestic use. The reduction was based on a revision in the 2000/01 food, industrial, and residual estimate and long-term analysis. Seed use was boosted slightly to almost 4.1 million cwt. Total exports for 2001/02 are projected at 86 million cwt, up 2 million from both last months forecast and a year earlier. The upward revision is based on larger U.S. supplies, lower U.S. prices in 2001/02 especially for long grain rice, and a tightening of the price difference over major Asian exporters. Milled rice exports were raised 1 million cwt to 61 million, up a million cwt from a year earlier. Rough rice exports were raised 1 million cwt to 25 million cwt, also a million cwt higher than a year earlier. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 38.5 million cwt, up 58 percent from last months forecast and more than a third higher than a year earliers revised level. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 18.6 percent, up from 11.7 last month and 14.2 a year earlier. These are the largest ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratios since 1992/93. As of September 9, about 37 percent of the U.S. rice crop had been harvested, slightly ahead of a year earlier and the 5-year average. Harvest was more than 80 percent complete in Texas and Louisiana, with both States slightly behind a year earlier but virtually even with their 5-year average. In Arkansas, harvest was 28 percent complete by September 9, ahead of both a year earlier and the States 5-year average. A fourth of Mississippis crop had been harvested by September 9, up slightly from a year earlier but below its 5-year average of 29 percent. In California, harvest was 5 percent complete, nearly even with a year earlier and the States 5-year average. Early harvest tends to bode well for higher yields. Since the start of the 2001 growing season the overall condition of the U.S. rice crop has been quite favorable. For the week ending September 9, nearly 77 percent of the U.S. crop was rated in good or excellent condition, down from 79 percent a week earlier but well above the 5-year average of 67 percent. Texas, Louisiana, and California reported more than 80 percent of their crop in good or excellent condition. While Mississippi reported the largest share of its crop 6 percent in poor or very poor condition, it also reported the largest share 30 percent in excellent condition. U.S. 2001/02 LONG GRAIN CROP AND SUPPLIES LARGEST ON RECORD Total U.S. long grain supply in 2001/02 was revised up 5 percent to a record 180.8 million cwt, 18 percent larger than a year earlier. A 7- percent increase in long grain production to 159.7 million cwt accounted for the bulk of the month-to-month supply increase. In addition, beginning stocks were raised almost 17 percent to 11.6 million based on information from the August Rice Stocks report. Imports remain projected at nearly 9.6 million cwt, a record. Total long grain use is estimated at a record 156.2 million cwt, down 1 percent from last months forecast but 10 percent larger than a year earliers revised level. Domestic use accounts for all of the downward revision. Long grain domestic use is projected at 86.2 million cwt, down 3 percent from last month but nearly 12 percent larger than a year earlier. In contrast, long grain exports were raised 1 million cwt to 70 million, almost 8 percent higher than a year earlier. Ending stocks for long grain rice were raised 72 percent to 24.7 million cwt, more than double a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.8 percent, up from 9.1 percent last month and the largest since 1992/93. Total medium/short grain supply for 2001/02 is projected at 63.5 million cwt, up 9 percent from last month but 14 percent below a year earlier. A 3-percent increase in production to 46.7 million cwt combined with an almost 31 percent increase in beginning stocks to 15.6 million cwt account for the upward revision in supply. Imports remain projected at 1.2 million cwt. Total medium/short grain use is projected at 50.9 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month but nearly 13 percent smaller than a year earlier. Exports account for all of this months upward revision. Medium/short grain exports were raised 1 million cwt to 16 million based on larger supplies. Domestic use for medium/short grain rice remains projected at 34.9 million cwt, down 11 percent from a year earliers revised level but about the same as 1999/2000. Ending stocks of medium/short grain rice are projected at 12.6 million cwt, up 47 percent from last month but 19 percent below a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 24.7 percent, up from 17.2 percent last month but below a year earliers revised 26.7 percent. According to USDAs weekly U.S. Export Sales, for the week ending September 6, 2001 combined exports and outstanding sales totaled 638,000 tons (product-weight), up more than 41 percent from a year earlier. Combined shipments and sales were ahead of a year earlier to Turkey, Mexico, Central America, Uzbekistan, and Jordan. In contrast, sales and shipments were behind a year earlier to Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the European Union. The 2001/02 market year began with 384,000 tons of outstanding sales from 2000/01. 2001/02 U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE DROPPED TO $3.75 to $4.25 The 2001/02 season-average farm price (SAFP) was lowered this month to $3.75 to $4.25 per cwt from $4.85 to $5.35 last month. A 6-percent increase in 2001/02 total supplies was behind the revision. The 2001/02 SAFP is the lowest since 1986/87. The 2000/01 SAFP is estimated at $5.56 per cwt, up a cent from last month a result of a revised July 2001 price but down from $5.93 a year earlier. The U.S. SAFP has declined every year since 1997/98. Last month, USDA estimated Augusts mid-month price at $5.30 per cwt and raised Julys to $5.25 from a preliminary $5.01. These prices are up slightly from June when reported cash prices dropped to the 2000/01 market-year low of $5.01 per cwt. Monthly cash prices are expected to decline as peak harvest begins in the Delta this month. Reported monthly cash prices have remained below a year earlier since December 1997. In the South, reported cash prices for long grain rough rice have dropped since last month as harvest nears completion on the Gulf Coast and picks up in the Delta. In Texas, prices for long grain rough rice were quoted at $4.53 per cwt for the week ending September 4, down almost 50 cents from a month earlier. In Southwest Louisiana, cash prices were reported at $4.20 per cwt, down from $5 a month earlier. Prior to the onset of the 2001 harvest in mid-July, prices were quoted at $6 per cwt in both regions. In the Delta which accounts for the bulk of the southern rice crop reported prices for long grain rice for the week ending September 4 were $4.00 per cwt, a drop of almost $2 since mid-July. For all three regions, these are the lowest reported cash prices for long grain rice since the mid-1980s. In contrast, prices for California medium grain rice have risen since mid- July, a result of a large sale to Uzbekistan and expectations of a smaller California crop in 2001. Medium grain accounts for the bulk of Californias rice crop. Prices for California medium grain rough rice were calculated at around $4.70 per cwt for the week ending September 4, up more than a $1 from a month earlier and nearly $1.50 higher than mid- July. Because the bulk of Californias rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of milled rice. There has been little trading of new-crop medium grain rice in the South. In the Delta, where almost all southern medium grain is grown, medium grain prices were quoted around $4 per cwt, up slightly from a month earlier. Prices for southern medium grain are expected to rise this year, a result of smaller supplies. INTERNATIONAL PRICES UP SLIGHTLY ON STEADY SHIPMENTS Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled white rice and parboiled rice have slightly increased since early August, a result of steady shipments of prior sales, a tightening of exportable supplies especially in Vietnam, and some strengthening of the Thai baht in early and mid-August. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $178 per ton for the week ending September 10, up from $172 in early August. Iraq has been the major buyer. Prices for medium-quality (5 to 15 percent brokens) regular milled white rice have risen as well, with Indonesia the major buyer. Prices for Thailands parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) have continued to rise since mid-April, a result of steady shipments to Nigeria, the largest importer of parboiled rice. Prices were quoted at $214 per ton for the week ending September 10, up $18 from a month earlier and nearly $50 higher than in early May. Prices for lower quality rice (20 percent or more brokens) have also risen. Prices for Thai A.1 Special 100-percent brokens were reported at $146 per ton for the week ending September 10, up nearly $10 from early August and the highest in a year. Steady shipments to West Africa primarily Senegal account for most of the price strength. In contrast, prices for Thailands premium jasmine rice continue to decline, a result of large supplies and weaker global demand. Prices were quoted at $267 per ton for the week ending September 10, down $10 from a month earlier and almost $260 per ton below prices a year earlier. Prices for Thai jasmine rice are the lowest in decades. Prices for Vietnams regular milled white rice have declined since mid- August. Prices for Vietnams 5-percent brokens (fob Ho Chi Minh City) were reported at $173 per ton for the week ending September 3, down from $180 in mid-August. Logistical problems caused by severe flooding in the Mekong River Delta were largely responsibly for rising prices from mid- July through mid-August. By mid-August, Vietnams prices were $10 to $14 per ton higher than prices for comparable quality Thai rice, making Vietnam uncompetitive in the international rice market. Vietnam typically sells its rice at $15 to $25 per ton lower than comparable qualities of Thai rice. Iraq, Cuba, Africa, and the Philippines have been the major destinations for Vietnams rice in recent months. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, domestic sales) were quoted at $243 per ton for the week ending September 10, down from $265 in late August and $276 a month earlier. Expectations of a record U.S. long grain crop in 2001 are behind the weaker prices. Quoted prices had remained at $276 since October. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was $65 per ton for the week ending September 10, down from $104 in early August. The tightening of the difference is the result of weaker U.S. prices and higher Thai prices. The difference had hovered around $100 per ton since late March. U.S. rice is typically competitive with Thai rice when the difference is no more than $30 to $50 per ton. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) were quoted at $220 per ton for the week ending September 10, down from $243 in August. Prices had remained at $243 per ton since early May. Quoted prices for California medium grain milled rice are currently the lowest in more than two decades, a result of a record California crop in 2000. Prices are expected to strengthen this year in response to a smaller crop. CHINA, EGYPT ACCOUNT FOR BULK OF CUT IN 2001/02 GLOBAL PRODUCTION Global rice production for 2001/02 is projected at 394.4 million tons (milled basis), down about 1.2 million from last month and a year earlier. Production remains more than 3 percent below the 1999/2000 record. Global consumption is projected at a record 404.8 million tons, down about 1 million from last month but almost 1 percent larger than a year earlier. China accounts for the bulk of this months reduction in production and consumption. Global ending stocks are projected at 127.2 million tons, fractionally below last month but more than 10 million tons below a year earlier. China accounts for most of the year-to-year reduction in global stocks. China accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month reduction in global rice production. Chinas 2001/02 production was lowered 2.1 million tons to 128.1 million (milled basis) based on a 500,000-hectare cut in harvested area to 29.2 million, the lowest since 1963. Production was lowered this month in other countries as well. Egypts crop was lowered 478,000 tons to 3.4 million due to lower area and a weaker yield. Mexicos 2001/02 rice crop was cut 12,000 tons to 258,000 based on a 3,000-hectare drop in harvested area for the fall-winter crop. Portugals crop was lowered 10,000 tons to 100,000 based on a lower yield. Area was actually raised. There were several back-year revisions in Portugals rice area, yield, and production estimates this month. Offsetting some of these reductions was a 1-million-ton increase in India 2001/02 production to 88 million, a result of a higher yield. Production is still almost 1.5 million tons below the 1999/2000 record. In addition, the U.S. crop was raised 260,000 tons to a record 6.51 million, a result of a higher yield and larger area. Finally, Australias crop was raised 73,000 tons to almost 1.1 million based on government data reporting a 17,000-hectare increase in harvested area to 167,000 hectares. Global 2000/01 production is projected at 395.6 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but more than 3 percent below a year earliers record. The only production revision this month is a 4,000-ton drop in Portugals crop to 100,000 tons based on a lower yield. While Egypts area was reduced 22,000 hectares to 672,000, the production estimate was unchanged. LITTLE GROWTH PROJECTED FOR 2002 GLOBAL RICE TRADE Global rice trade for calendar year 2002 is projected at 22.4 million tons (milled basis), up 275,000 tons from last months forecast and 200,000 tons larger than last year. There were three country-specific revisions for 2002. First, Egypts exports were raised 125,000 tons to 650,000 based on revised 2001 exports and large stocks. This is the largest level of rice exports from Egypt since 1970. Second, Burmas exports were raised 100,000 tons to 350,000 based on higher 2001 exports. Finally, U.S. exports were raised 50,000 tons to 2.7 million based on larger supplies and lower prices. For 2001, global trade was lowered fractionally to 22.2 million tons. Vietnam accounted for all of the export reduction. Vietnams exports were reduced 200,000 tons to 3.8 million based on shipments-to-date and expectations on shipments for the remainder of the year. Nearly offsetting this reduction was a 100,000-ton increase in Burmas exports to 450,000 based on shipments-to-date and outstanding sales. Burmas exports are the largest since 1995. In addition, Egypts exports were raised 50,000 tons to 550,000 based on a bumper crop, large stocks, and shipments-to-date. There was only one country-specific import revision for 2001. Bangladeshs imports were raised 175,000 tons to 475,000 based on shipments-to-date and recent large sales to Bangladesh by Burma. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on October 15, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605-6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on September 18, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. We mourn and remember the innocent victims of terrorism. NOW AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET: New Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service For several months, a wide range of ideas have emerged in the farm bill debate on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Rice: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/RSC-0701- 01/, is the first of the occasional Rice Outlook supplements that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Rice Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth reports and special articles on the oilseed sector. ERS ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB: ERS newly redesigned and restructured website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy-to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. Come visit us and see for yourself! Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1999/00 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ========================================================================== 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ========================================================================== TOTAL RICE Percent ARP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.317 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.290 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,272 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.4 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 206.3 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.5 10.8 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 228.8 245.5 Food, industrial, & residual 2/ 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 112.3 117.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.1 Total Domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 116.4 121.1 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 84.0 86.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 24.0 25.0 Milled 5/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 60.0 61.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 200.4 207.1 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.4 38.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 14.2 18.6 $/cwt Average farm price 6/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.56 3.75-4.25 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 69.0 69.5 ========================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported uses, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1999/2000 to present -------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2001/02 2000/01 1999/2000 Month | ----------------- ------------------- ------------------ | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | August | 5.30 1/ N/A 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,516 September | 5.72 10,228 5.78 44,994 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 11,995 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 10,575 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 10,828 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 14,812 February | 5.72 12,296 5.88 9,863 March | 5.55 11,549 5.71 8,224 April | 5.59 11,074 5.75 5,589 May | 5.15 8,994 5.63 5,893 June | 5.01 7,877 5.80 4,790 July | 5.25 8,474 5.65 6,406 | Average 2/ | 5.56 11,185 5.93 11,957 | Total 3/ | $3.75-$4.25 / 134,222 143,485 | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary mid-month estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2001/02 2000/01 1999/00 Month |-------------------- -------------------- ------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | $/cwt (rough rice) | August | 2.97 2.57 2.58 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 September 1/| 3.07 2.67 2.67 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 October | 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 March | 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 April | 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 May | 2.94 2.57 2.55 4.09 3.58 3.72 June | 2.96 2.59 2.57 4.09 3.40 3.53 July | 2.93 2.55 2.53 4.09 3.48 3.61 | Average 2/ | 3.02 2.62 2.63 3.31 2.98 2.96 4.59 4.22 4.25 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Country 2001/02 | 2000/01 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 or as of | as of Market Market Market Market region 09/06/01 | 09/06/00 year year year year ============================================================================= | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 65 | 78 364 387 340 324 Other Western Europe 4 | 7 13 18 20 17 Turkey 24 | 12 171 231 100 115 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 1 1 0 0 Former Soviet Union 54 | 0 1 57 43 2 Japan 6 | 3 296 374 324 250 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 34 | 76 318 395 203 183 Jordan 11 | 1 14 21 41 42 Indonesia 0 | 0 23 118 26 0 Saudi Arabia 52 | 69 140 151 106 96 | AFRICA 37 | 69 182 171 157 171 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 6 12 20 0 31 Ghana 9 | 13 73 70 61 64 Liberia 9 | 0 9 3 0 0 South Africa 15 | 32 57 70 81 67 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 358 | 184 1,305 1,410 1,741 1,718 Brazil 0 | 1 2 4 555 28 Canada 33 | 37 100 102 122 107 Colombia 0 | 1 17 1 11 297 Costa Rica 0 | 0 82 84 41 102 Dominican Republic 0 | 0 56 56 61 93 Guatemala 2 | 1 36 42 29 25 Haiti 46 | 17 158 144 164 100 Honduras 38 | 15 106 114 47 63 Jamaica 6 | 11 32 35 15 26 Leeward & Windward Is. 2 | 3 4 11 11 16 Mexico 162 | 81 583 629 417 397 Nicaragua 46 | 8 85 95 61 35 Panama 7 | 0 2 15 8 88 Peru 0 | 0 1 19 118 99 El Salvador 9 | 0 51 55 30 49 Trinidad 3 | 5 9 0 23 21 | UNKNOWN 21 | 0 0 0 N/A N/A | TOTAL 638 | 451 2,651 3,044 2,929 2,780 | ============================================================================= N/A = Not available 1/ Columns labeled "Market year" are total August-July exports reported in U.S. Export Sales. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales at a particular date. U.S. Export Sales reports on a product-weight basis. Food aid donations are not included in U.S. Export Sales. Table 5--U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------- ------------------------------- ----- Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ----------- A.1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 180 211 417 143 148 144 171 125 257 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 276 243 342 172 171 154 138 123 153 June 2001 276 243 342 177 180 158 144 130 154 July 2001 276 243 342 177 198 160 148 137 156 2000/01 272 313 357 184 187 167 149 132 165 Aug 2001 268 243 334 174 202 160 149 141 176 Sep 2001 243 220 298 178 213 166 156 146 173 2001/02 9/ 256 232 316 176 208 163 153 144 175 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100-pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4-percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100-percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 2.687 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 2.665 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 5,991 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 159.7 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 9.3 9.6 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.7 180.8 Domestic use 4/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 77.1 86.2 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 65.0 70.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 142.1 156.2 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 24.7 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 8.2 15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Continued-- Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/-- continued ============================================================================= Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ 3/ ============================================================================= MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 0.630 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 0.625 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 7,470 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 46.7 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.2 1.2 Total supply 5/ 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 73.9 63.5 Domestic use 4/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 39.4 34.9 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 19.0 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 58.4 50.9 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 12.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 26.7 24.7 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================= 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE