RICE OUTLOOK October 15, 2001 October 2001, ERS-RCS-1001 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- - RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- - OCTOBER 2001 SUMMARY: Domestic: The U.S. 2001/02 rough rice crop was raised 1.8 million hundredweight (cwt) to a record 208.2 million, a result of a 47 pound increase in average yield to 6,328 pounds per acre. Production was increased for all three classes of rice, with long grain accounting for the bulk of the upward revision. Imports were raised 250,000 cwt to 11 million cwt based on revised 2000/01 imports. Total domestic use was lowered fractionally to 121.0 million cwt based on reduced seed use. Milled rice exports were raised 2 million cwt to 63 million (rough basis). Offsetting this was a 2-million cwt drop in rough rice exports to 23 million. Total ending stocks were raised almost 6 percent to 40.6 million cwt, the highest since 1986/87. Despite larger supplies, the 2001/02 season-average price was raised to $4.00 to $4.50 per cwt, an increase of 25 cents on both the high and low end. Higher than expected U.S. cash prices in through mid-September plus strengthening of international prices last month are behind the higher price. International: Global rice production for 2001/02 was lowered almost 1.2 million tons to 393.3 million (milled basis), with China accounting for the bulk of the reduction. Chinas crop was lowered 1.4 million tons to 126.7 million, a result of a much lower yield. In contrast, production was revised up this month for North and South Korea, Senegal, the Philippines, and the United States. With global consumption projected at a record 404.8 million tons exceeding production, global ending stocks are projected to drop 1 percent to 126 million tons, the second consecutive year of declining global stocks. Global trade for calendar year 2002 remains projected at 22.4 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Global trade for 2001 was raised 175,000 tons, with larger exports from South Korea and India more than offsetting reductions for Pakistan and Australia. Global prices have risen a few dollars since early August, but continue to move within a very narrow range. Since April, international rice prices have averaged the lowest in at least 15 years. U.S. 2001 CROP FORECAST RAISED 1 PERCENT TO RECORD 208 MILLION CWT The 2001/02 U.S. rice crop is projected at a record 208.2 million cwt (rough basis), up 1 percent from last months forecast a result of a higher yield. The U.S. Department of Agricultures (USDA) October Crop Production reported the 2001 yield at a record 6,328 pounds, up 56 pounds from last months forecast and almost 1 percent higher a year earlier. The 2001 crop is 9 percent larger than last year. Long grain accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month production increase. The 2001 long grain crop was raised 1.4 million cwt to a record 161.1 million, 25 percent larger than the 2000 crop. Medium grain production was revised up almost 1 percent to 45.2 million cwt, down 24 percent from a year earlier. The 2001 short grain crop was raised 1 percent to 1.8 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier. Average yields are projected higher this year for all States except California and Texas, with record yields projected for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. Average yields were revised up this month for Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Mississippi reported the largest yield increase this month, up 200 pounds per acre to 6,500. Louisianas yield was raised 100 pounds to 5,400 per acre and Arkansas was raised 50 pounds to 6,200. Missouris yield remains estimated at 5,800 pounds per acre, Texas at 6,500, and California at 7,900. There were no area revisions this month. Total U.S. rice plantings are estimated at almost 3.32 million acres, up more than 8 percent from 2000/01. Rice acreage expanded this year in every rice growing State except California, where acreage declined, and in Texas, were acreage is unchanged. Rice plantings in Arkansas are estimated at 1.61 million acres, fractionally below the 1999 record. Mississippis rice acreage is estimated at 248,000 acres, up 30,000 from a year earlier. Louisianas rice acreage is estimated at 545,000 acres, up 65,000. At 214,000 acres, Texas rice plantings are the lowest in more than 60 years. California rice acreage is estimated at 471,000 acres, down 77,000. Crop projections were raised this month for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Arkansas 2001 rice crop was raised 803,000 cwt to a record 99.6 million, up 13.5 million from a year earlier. Louisianas crop was boosted 545,000 cwt to 29.4 million, an increase of more than 5 million cwt from 2000. Mississippis production was raised 496,000 cwt to 16.1 million, up 3.3 million. The Texas crop remains projected at 13.9 million cwt, down 432,000 from a year earlier. Californias crop remains projected at 37.2 million cwt, a drop of more than 6.3 million. Total supply for 2001/02 is projected at a record 247.6 million cwt, up almost 1 percent from last months forecast and 8 percent above a year earlier. Imports were raised 250,000 cwt to 11 million based on revised 2000/01 imports. Beginning stocks remain estimated at 28.4 million cwt, up almost 4 percent from a year earlier. U.S. RICE EXPORTS PROJECTED TO INCREASE ALMOST 3 PERCENT IN 2001/02 Total U.S. rice use for 2001/02 is projected at 207.0 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last month and more than 3 percent higher than a year earlier. The only revision was a fractional drop in seed use. Total domestic use is estimated at 121.1 million cwt, 3 percent above a year earlier, but just fractionally below the 1999/2000 record. Food, industrial, and residual remains projected at 117 million cwt, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Total exports for 2001/02 remain projected at 86 million cwt, up more than 3 percent from a year earliers revised estimate. Milled rice exports for 2001/02 were raised 2 million cwt to 63 million based on information from the weekly Export Sales report and the recent narrowing of the price difference over comparable grades of Thai rice. Offsetting higher milled rice exports was a 2-million-cwt drop in rough rice exports to 23 million, up fractionally from a year earlier. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 40.6 million cwt, up 6 percent from last months forecast and almost 43 percent higher than a year earlier. The 2001/02 ending stocks are the largest since 1986/87. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 19.6 percent, the largest since 1992/93. As of October 7, about 88 percent of the U.S. rice crop had been harvested, slightly ahead of a year earlier and the U.S. 5-year average. Harvest was ahead of a year earlier in every State except Louisiana. In Texas, harvest was 100 percent complete, 2-percentage points ahead of the States 5-year average. Harvest in Louisiana was 98 percent complete, fractionally below a year earlier and the 5-year average. Mississippis harvest was 88 percent complete, 6-percentage points ahead of a year earlier but matching its 5-year average. In Arkansas, harvest was 94 percent complete, 7-percentage points ahead of both a year earlier and the States 5-year average. Californias harvest was reported 60 percent complete, ahead of a year earliers 56 percent and 7-percentage points ahead of the States 5-year average. Early harvest typically bodes well for field yields. U.S. 2001/02 LONG GRAIN CROP AND SUPPLIES LARGEST ON RECORD Total U.S. long grain supply in 2001/02 was lowered fractionally to 181.7 million cwt, still a record and almost 19 percent larger than a year earlier. A 1-percent increase in long grain production to 161.1 million cwt was more than offset by a 6-percent cut in imports to 9 million cwt. Imports were lowered this month based on U.S. Census data reporting smaller 2000/01 long grain imports. Beginning stocks remain estimated at 11.6 million cwt. Total long grain use is estimated at a record 156.1 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last months forecast but 10 percent larger than a year earlier. Long grain domestic use, projected at 86.1 million cwt, was lowered fractionally based on slightly smaller seed use. Long grain exports remain projected at 70 million cwt, more than 7 percent higher than a year earlier. Ending stocks for long grain rice were raised 4 percent to 26 million cwt, 120 percent larger than a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 16.4 percent, the largest since 1992/93. Total medium/short grain supply for 2001/02 is projected at 64.7 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month but 14 percent below a year earlier. The upward revision was the result of a 1-percent increase in medium/short grain production to 47.1 million cwt and a 67-percent increase in imports to 2 million cwt. Beginning stocks remain estimated at 15.6 million cwt. Total medium/short grain use remains projected at 50.9 million cwt, 14 percent smaller than a year earlier. Domestic use for medium/short grain rice remains projected at 34.9 million cwt, down almost 16 percent from a year earlier. Medium/short grain exports remain projected at 16 million cwt, down 11 percent from a year earlier. Ending stocks of medium/short grain rice are projected at 13.8 million cwt, up 10 percent from last month but almost 12 percent below a year earlier. The resulting stocks- to-use ratio is projected to be 27.1 percent, up from 24.7 percent last month and slightly higher than a year earlier. According to USDAs weekly U.S. Export Sales, for the week ending October 4, 2001 combined exports and outstanding sales totaled 926,400 tons (product-weight), up almost 26 percent from a year earlier. Combined shipments and sales were ahead of a year earlier to Mexico, Central America, Haiti, Uzbekistan, and Jordan. In contrast, sales and shipments were behind a year earlier to Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the European Union. As of October 4, outstanding sales were almost 11 percent ahead of a year earlier; exports were 43 percent ahead. There were several minor revisions to the 2000/01 supply and use estimates. On the supply side, imports were raised 357,000 cwt to nearly 10.9 million based on U.S. Census data through August 2001. On the demand side, seed use was raised 40,000 cwt to almost 4.1 million based on Septembers revised 2001 plantings. In addition, total exports were lowered 695,000 cwt to 83.2 million based on U.S. Census data. Rough rice exports were lowered 5 percent to 22.9 million cwt. Milled exports (including brown rice) were raised fractionally to 60.4 million cwt. 2001/02 U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE RAISED TO $4.00 TO $4.50 The 2001/02 season-average farm price (SAFP) was raised this month to $4.00 to $4.50 per cwt, an increase of 25 cents on both the high and low ends from last month. The increase was based on higher than expected U.S. cash prices early in the 2001/02 market year and a slight increase in international trading prices in September. Despite the monthly revision, the 2001/02 SAFP remains the lowest since 1986/87. The U.S. SAFP has declined every year since 1997/98. Last month, USDA estimated Septembers mid-month price at $5.06 per cwt and lowered Augusts price to $5.10 from a preliminary $5.30 per cwt. Prices are up fractionally from June when reported cash prices dropped to the 2000/01 market-year low of $5.01 per cwt. Monthly cash prices are expected to decline after peak harvest concludes in the Delta. Reported monthly cash prices have remained below a year earlier since December 1997. In the South, reported cash prices for long grain rough rice were steady to slightly down. With harvest virtually complete, prices in Texas and Southwest Louisiana dropped slightly from a month earlier. In Southwest Louisiana, prices for long grain rough rice were quoted at $4.05 per cwt for the week ending October 9, down 10 to 15 cents from early September. In Texas, prices were quoted at $4.15 per cwt, down 30 to 40 cents from a month earlier. In the Delta, long grain rough rice were quoted around $4.00 per cwt for the week ending October 9, virtually unchanged from September but 50 to 60 cents below August. These are the lowest monthly cash prices for long grain in at least 15 years, a result of record U.S. supplies and extremely low global prices. Prices for California medium grain rice have risen since mid-July, a result of sales to Uzbekistan and South Korea and expectations of a smaller California crop in 2001. Medium grain accounts for the bulk of Californias rice crop. Prices for California medium grain rough rice were calculated at around $4.88 per cwt for the week ending October 9, down slightly from late September and early October but up more than $1.50 from mid-July. Because the bulk of Californias rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of milled rice. In the Delta, where almost all southern medium grain is grown, medium grain prices were quoted around $4.44 per cwt, up 40 to 50 cents from September. Southern medium grain prices are expected to rise this year due to smaller supplies. INTERNATIONAL PRICES DROP SLIGHTLY ON LACK OF NEW SALES Thai export prices for most grades of regular milled white rice have dropped slightly since September, a result of abundant supplies and few major new sales. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $175 per ton for the week ending October 9, down $3 from a month earlier. In September, prices rose $5 to $6 per cwt due to logistical problems in Vietnam and Thai sales to the Middle East. Prices for medium-quality (5 to 15 percent brokens) quality regular milled white rice have dropped a few dollars since September as well. In contrast, prices for Thailands parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) have continued to rise since mid-April, a result of steady shipments to Nigeria, the largest importer of parboiled rice. Prices were quoted at $217 per ton for the week ending October 9, up a few dollars from September and more than $20 above August. Prices for lower quality rice (20 percent or more brokens) steadily rose from May through mid-September, primarily due to large shipments to Senegal. Prices for Thai A.1 Special 100-percent brokens were reported at $150 per ton for the week ending September 17, up $10 from a month earlier. Prices dropped slightly in early October and were reported at $148 for the week ending October 9. Prices for Thailands premium jasmine rice increased in October after declining sharply since July 2000. Prices were quoted at $272 per ton for the week ending October 9, up $10 to $15 from mid-September but still $250 per ton below a year earlier. Prices for Vietnams regular milled white rice are up fractionally from September, primarily due to logistical problems stemming from severe flooding in the Mekong River Delta and some reluctance by farmers to sell. Prices for Vietnams 5-percent brokens (fob Ho Chi Minh City) were reported at $174 per ton for the week ending October 9, up $1 to $2 from September but $2 to $4 below August. Vietnamese prices are currently just a few dollars below prices for comparable grades of Thai rice, a major factor hindering Vietnams competitiveness. Vietnam typically sells its rice at $15 to $25 per ton lower than comparable qualities of Thai rice. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, domestic sales) were quoted at $243 per ton for the week ending October 9, unchanged from a month earlier but more than $20 below prices in August. Prices are the lowest since August 1987. Expectations of a record U.S. long grain crop in 2001 and historically low international prices are behind the weaker U.S. prices. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was $68 per ton for the week ending October 9, up $3 from a month earlier but substantially down from more than $100 in early August. U.S. rice is typically competitive with Thai rice when the difference is no more than $30 to $50 per ton. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) were quoted at $287 per ton for the week ending October 9, up more than $60 from early September. Prices had remained at $243 per ton since early May. The higher prices are due to expectations of a smaller crop this year. GLOBAL 2001/02 PRODUCTION LOWERED ON SMALLER CHINA CROP Global rice production for 2001/02 is projected at 393.3 million tons (milled basis), down almost 1.2 million from last month and 2.4 million below a year earlier. Production remains almost 4 percent below the 1999/2000 record. Global consumption is projected at a record 404.8 million, virtually unchanged from last month but up almost 1 percent from a year earlier. China accounts for the bulk of this months reduction in production. Global ending stocks are projected at 126 million tons, down 1 percent from last month and more than 8 percent below 2000/01. China accounts for most of the month-to-month and year-to-year reduction in global stocks. Chinas 2001/02 production was lowered 1.4 million tons to 126.7 million (milled basis) based on a lower yield. Production is nearly 4 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1994/95. In addition, the Ukraines crop was lowered 10,000 tons to 50,000 due to lower area. In contrast, South Koreas crop was raised 100,000 tons to 5.4 million, the result of a higher yield. The U.S. crop was raised 58,000 tons to a record 6.56 million, a result of a higher yield. North Koreas production was increased 50,000 tons to 1.35 million based on a higher yield as well. Despite unfavorable weather early in the 2001/02 season, conditions in August and September were quite favorable to rice production in North Korea. Senegals production was raised 48,000 tons to 143,000 based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture reporting a much higher yield and increased plantings. Please note several back-year revisions in Senegals area, yield, and production estimates. Rice production in the Philippines was raised 40,000 tons to more than 8.1 million based on higher area. And finally, Tajikistans crop was raised 6,000 tons to 17,000, a result of a slight increase in area and a much higher yield. Please note back-year adjustments in Tajikistans area, yield, and production. Global 2000/01 production is projected at 395.6 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but more than 3 percent below a year earliers record. There were only two revisions this month. First, Senegals production was raised 43,000 tons to 141,000, a result of larger area and a much higher yield. And second, Tajikistans crop was lowered 5,000 tons to 16,000 based on a slightly larger area and a much higher yield. GLOBAL RICE TRADE PROJECTED FLAT IN 2002 Global rice trade for calendar year 2002 is projected at 22.4 million tons (milled basis), unchanged from last months forecast and virtually the same as a year earlier. The only trade revision for 2002 was a 125,000- ton drop in Senegals rice imports to 600,000 tons based on a larger crop. For 2001, global trade was raised 175,000 tons to 22.4 million tons, down about 2 percent from a year earlier and more than 17 percent below the 1998 record of 27.7 million tons. On the export side, South Koreas exports were raised to 300,000 tons from 0 based on announced donations to North Korea. In addition, Indias exports we raised 200,000 tons to 1 million based on shipments-to-date and greater competitiveness in certain non-basmati markets, primarily for parboiled rice to West Africa. Nearly offsetting these increases were two reductions. First, Pakistans 2001 exports were lowered 225,000 tons to 2 million based on shipments-to- date. And second, Australias exports were lowered 75,000 tons to 600,000 based on pace-to-date. The only country-specific import revision was an 80,000-ton reduction in Senegals imports to 550,000 based on larger production. The only 2000 import revision was a 63,000-ton drop in Senegals imports to 637,000 tons. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on December 12, 2001. Please note, next month ERS will release updated Rice Outlook tables on November 13, 2001. There will be no text portion of the November Rice Outlook. The Summary of the 2001 Rice Yearbook (RCS-2001) will be released by 4:00 PM on November 29, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605-6220. Detailed 2000/01 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on October 16, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. We mourn and remember the innocent victims of terrorism. 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Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1999/00 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================ 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ TOTAL RICE Percent ARP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.317 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.290 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,328 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.4 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 208.2 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.9 11.0 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 229.2 247.6 Food, industrial, & residual 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 113.5 117.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.0 Total Domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 117.6 121.0 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 83.2 86.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 22.8 23.0 Milled 5/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 60.4 63.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 200.8 207.0 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.4 40.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 14.2 19.6 $/cwt Average farm price 6/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.56 4.00-4.50 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 69.0 69.5 ============================================================================= N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1999/2000 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2001/02 2000/01 1999/00 Month | ---------------- ------------------ ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | August | 5.10 12,616 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,516 September | 5.06 1/ 5.72 10,228 5.78 44,994 October | 5.61 13,119 5.97 11,995 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 10,575 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 10,828 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 14,812 February | 5.72 12,296 5.88 9,863 March | 5.55 11,549 5.71 8,224 April | 5.59 11,074 5.75 5,589 May | 5.15 8,994 5.63 5,893 June | 5.01 7,877 5.80 4,790 July | 5.25 8,474 5.65 6,406 | Average 2/ | 5.56 11,185 5.93 11,957 | Total 3/ | $4.00-$4.50 4/ 134,222 143,485 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary midmonth estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2000/01 is through current month only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2000/01 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2001/02 2000/01 1999/2000 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ----------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | $/cwt | August | 2.97 2.57 2.58 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 September | 3.09 2.69 2.70 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 October 1/| 3.14 2.76 2.77 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 November | 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 March | 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 April | 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 May | 2.94 2.57 2.55 4.09 3.58 3.72 June | 2.96 2.59 2.57 4.09 3.40 3.53 July | 2.93 2.55 2.53 4.09 3.48 3.61 | Average 2/| 3.07 2.67 2.68 3.31 2.98 2.96 4.59 4.22 4.25 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Country 2001/02 | 2000/01 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 or as of | as of Market Market Market Market region 10/04/01 | 10/04/00 year year year year | | 1,000 metric tons | European Union 78 | 120 364 387 340 324 Other Western Europe 9 | 7 13 18 20 17 Turkey 24 | 28 171 231 100 115 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 1 1 0 0 Former Soviet Union 54 | 0 1 57 43 2 Japan 8 | 5 296 374 324 250 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 128 | 219 318 395 203 183 Jordan 12 | 1 14 21 41 42 Indonesia 0 | 0 23 118 26 0 Saudi Arabia 69 | 83 140 151 106 96 | AFRICA 53 | 76 182 171 157 171 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 6 12 20 0 31 Ghana 23 | 18 73 70 61 64 Liberia 9 | 1 9 3 0 0 South Africa 15 | 32 57 70 81 67 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 560 | 281 1,305 1,410 1,741 1,718 Brazil 0 | 1 2 4 555 28 Canada 44 | 49 100 102 122 107 Colombia 0 | 1 17 1 11 297 Costa Rica 0 | 1 82 84 41 102 Dominican Republic 1 | 1 56 56 61 93 Guatemala 23 | 1 36 42 29 25 Haiti 75 | 25 158 144 164 100 Honduras 51 | 25 106 114 47 63 Jamaica 6 | 20 32 35 15 6 Leeward & Windward Is. 5 | 3 4 11 11 16 Mexico 239 | 114 583 629 417 397 Nicaragua 80 | 30 85 95 61 35 Panama 7 | 0 2 15 8 88 Peru 1 | 1 1 19 118 99 El Salvador 15 | 3 51 55 30 49 Trinidad 5 | 5 9 0 23 21 Unknown 12 | 0 0 0 N/A N/A | TOTAL 926 | 736 2,651 3,044 2,929 2,780 | ============================================================================= N/A = Not available 1/ Columns labeled "Market year" are total August-July exports reported in U.S. Export Sales. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales at a particular date. U.S. Export Sales reports on a product-weight basis. Food aid donations are not included in U.S. Export Sales. Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------- ----------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ----------- A.1 7/brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 369 470 418 284 276 261 236 217 257 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 276 243 342 172 171 154 138 123 153 June 2001 276 243 342 177 180 158 144 130 154 July 2001 276 243 342 177 198 160 148 137 156 2000/01 272 313 357 184 187 167 149 132 165 Aug 2001 267 243 334 174 202 160 149 141 176 Sep 2001 243 231 287 178 214 167 157 148 173 Oct 2001 9/ 243 287 287 176 217 167 157 149 174 2001/02 9/ 251 254 303 176 211 165 154 146 174 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100-pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4-percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100 percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 161.1 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 8.8 9.0 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.1 181.7 Domestic use 4/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 76.2 86.1 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 65.3 70.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 141.5 156.1 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 25.6 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 8.2 16.4 --continued Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================= Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================= MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 47.1 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 Total supply 5/ 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 74.8 64.7 Domestic use 4/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 41.3 34.9 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 17.9 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 59.2 50.9 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 13.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 26.3 27.1 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in Table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END_OF_FILE