RICE Tables-Updates November 13, 2001 November 2001, ERS-RCS-1101 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Rice Outlook is issued 11 times a year electronically from the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. In November only the tables are released. Printed copies are not available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept-fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on December 12, 2001. Please note that the Summary of the 2001 Rice Yearbook (RCS-2001) will be released by 4:00 PM on November 29, 2001. The 2000 Rice Yearbook and other reports may be accessed via the ERS website at http://www.ers.usda.gov. To order a published copy of the 2000 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. Other orders please call (703) 605-6220. Detailed 2001/02 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on November 14, 2001, in Grains: World Markets and Trade, available on the Foreign Agricultural Service website at www.fas.usda.gov. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings,1999/00 to present Table 3-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to present Table 4-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present Table 5-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 6-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ====================================================================== 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ====================================================================== TOTAL RICE Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.317 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.290 Pounds / acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,374 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 209.7 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.9 11.0 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 229.2 249.2 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 113.1 117.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.0 Total domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 117.2 121.0 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 83.5 86.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 22.8 23.0 Milled 5/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 60.7 63.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 200.7 207.0 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 42.2 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 14.2 20.4 $/cwt Average farm 4.00 to price 6/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.56 5.56 4.50 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 68.6 69.0 ====================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1999/2000 to present ============================================================================== | 2001/02 2000/01 1999/00 Month | ---------------- -------------------- ---------------- | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 5.10 12,616 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,516 September | 4.78 9,960 5.72 10,228 5.78 44,994 October | 4.69 1/ 11,288 1/ 5.61 13,119 5.97 11,995 November | 5.63 12,191 6.02 10,575 December | 5.60 12,427 6.08 10,828 January | 5.84 15,068 6.02 14,812 February | 5.72 12,296 5.88 9,863 March | 5.55 11,549 5.71 8,224 April | 5.59 11,074 5.75 5,589 May | 5.15 8,994 5.63 5,893 June | 5.01 7,877 5.80 4,790 July | 5.25 8,474 5.65 6,406 | Average 2/ | 4.86 11,288 5.56 11,185 5.93 11,957 | Total 3/ | $4.00-$4.50 4/ 134,222 143,485 | ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary mid-month estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2001/02 is through current month only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2001/02 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 3--USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to 2001/02 ============================================================================== | 2001/02 2000/01 1999/2000 Month | -------------------- -------------------- ------------------ | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================== | | $/cwt (rough basis) | August | 2.97 2.57 2.58 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 September | 3.09 2.69 2.70 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 October | 3.18 2.80 2.81 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 November | 3.14 2.75 2.76 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 December | 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 January | 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 February | 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 March | 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 April | 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 May | 2.94 2.57 2.55 4.09 3.58 3.72 June | 2.96 2.59 2.57 4.09 3.40 3.53 July | 2.93 2.55 2.53 4.09 3.48 3.61 | Average 2/| 3.09 2.70 2.71 3.31 2.98 2.96 4.59 4.22 4.25 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4--U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present 1/ ============================================================================== Country 2001/02 | 2000/01 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 or as of | as of Market Market Market Market region 11/01/01 | 11/01/00 year year year year ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons | European Union 113 | 195 364 387 340 324 Other Western Europe 10 | 9 13 18 20 17 Turkey 24 | 87 171 231 100 115 Eastern Europe 0 | 0 1 1 0 0 Former Soviet Union 54 | 0 1 57 43 2 Japan 45 | 54 296 374 324 250 | OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 167 | 246 318 395 203 183 Jordan 10 | 16 14 21 41 42 Indonesia 0 | 0 23 118 26 0 Saudi Arabia 74 | 86 140 151 106 96 | AFRICA 55 | 100 182 171 157 171 Cote d'Ivoire 0 | 6 12 20 0 31 Ghana 25 | 21 73 70 61 64 Liberia 9 | 17 9 3 0 0 South Africa 15 | 32 57 70 81 67 | WESTERN HEMISPHERE 705 | 416 1,305 1,410 1,741 1,718 Brazil 0 | 1 2 4 555 28 Canada 56 | 56 100 102 122 107 Colombia 1 | 2 17 1 11 297 Costa Rica 1 | 1 82 84 41 102 Dominican Republic 1 | 4 56 56 61 93 Guatemala 27 | 1 36 42 29 25 Haiti 84 | 44 158 144 164 100 Honduras 57 | 40 106 114 47 63 Jamaica 12 | 20 32 35 15 26 Leeward & Windward Is. 5 | 3 4 11 11 16 Mexico 313 | 181 583 629 417 397 Nicaragua 98 | 44 85 95 61 35 Panama 7 | 0 2 15 8 88 Peru 1 | 1 1 19 118 99 El Salvador 29 | 6 51 55 30 49 Trinidad 5 | 5 9 0 23 21 Unknown 26 | 0 0 0 N/A N/A | TOTAL 1,200 | 1,109 2,651 3,044 2,929 2,780 | ============================================================================== N/A = Not available 1/ Columns labeled "Market year" are total August-July exports reported in U.S. Export Sales. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and outstanding sales at a particular date. U.S. Export Sales reports on a product-weight basis. Food aid donations are not included in U.S. Export Sales. Table 5--U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ -------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled grade B par- ------------A-1 7/ brokens year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas boiled brokens Special ============================================================================== $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 369 470 418 284 276 261 236 217 257 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 276 243 342 172 171 154 138 123 153 June 2001 276 243 342 177 180 158 144 130 154 July 2001 276 243 342 177 198 160 148 137 156 2000/01 272 313 357 184 187 167 149 132 165 Aug 2001 267 243 334 174 202 160 149 141 176 Sep 2001 243 231 287 178 214 167 157 148 173 Oct 2001 243 287 287 174 213 165 155 146 177 Nov 2001 243 287 287 174 193 162 155 138 187 2001/02 9/ 249 262 299 175 206 164 154 143 178 ============================================================================== N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100-pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4-percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100-percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ===================================================================== Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ===================================================================== LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 162.3 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 8.8 9.0 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.1 182.9 Domestic use 4/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 76.0 86.1 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 65.5 70.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 141.5 156.1 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 26.8 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 8.2 17.2 ===================================================================== --Continued Table 6--U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ===================================================================== Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ===================================================================== MEDIUM/SHORT Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 47.4 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 Total supply 5/ 73.7 72.0 59.6 63.3 74.8 65.0 Domestic use 4/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 41.2 34.9 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 18.0 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 59.2 50.9 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 14.1 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 26.3 27.8 ---------------- Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 ========================================================================= 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. END OF FILE