RICE OUTLOOK January 14, 2002 January 2002, ERS-RCS-0102 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. 2001/02 RICE PRODUCTION PEGGED AT RECORD 213 MILLION CWT SUMMARY: The U.S. 2001/02 rough rice crop estimate was raised 3.3 million-hundredweight (cwt) to a record 213 million, a result of a higher yield and larger area. Long grain accounted for almost all of the upward revision in production. Both domestic use and exports were raised this month, primarily due to a smaller milling yield. Total ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 42.5 million cwt, up fractionally from last months forecast and the largest since 1986/87. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 20.2 percent, nearly unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price range was tightened 10 cents on both the high and low ends to $4.10 to $4.40 per cwt, the lowest since 1986/87. Projections for 2001/02 global production, consumption, and ending stocks were fractionally lowered this month. Smaller production projections for Pakistan, Cambodia, and Uzbekistan were partially offset by larger forecasts for Egypt, Brazil, and the United States. Global rice production for 2001/02 is forecast at 392.6 million tons (milled basis), more than 1 percent below a year earlier and the second consecutive year of declining global rice production. Global rice consumption is projected at a record 404.2 million tons, up 1.2 million from 2000/01. Global ending stocks are projected to decline more than 8 percent to 125.4 million tons, more than 17 million tons below the 1999/2000 record. Global trade for calendar year 2002 "projected at 22.5 million tons" is down 50,000 tons from last months forecast. Smaller export projections for China and Pakistan were nearly offset by higher projections for India and the United States. The U.S. price difference over Thailand continues to decline and "at $27 per ton" is the lowest since early 1995. While Thai prices have risen almost $20 per ton since early November, U.S. prices have declined more than $20. The recent strength in international prices is largely due to very tight supplies in Vietnam and Pakistan, government-intervention buying by Thailand, and a recent increase in import demand. Global prices will again be under pressure after Thailands main crop is harvested in December-January and Vietnams winter- spring crop is harvested in February-March. DOMESTIC OUTLOOK U.S. 2001/02 production estimate raised 3.3 million cwt on higher area and yield The 2001/02 U.S. rough rice crop is projected at a record 213 million hundredweight (cwt), up 3.3 million cwt from last months forecast and 22 million cwt above a year earlier. The upward revision is the result of both larger area and a higher average yield. The United States Department of Agricultures (USDA) January Crop Production reported 2001 harvested area at 3.314 million acres, up fractionally from last month and 275,000 acres above a year earlier. The average yield, reported at a record 6,429 pounds per acre, is up 55 pounds from last month and 148 pounds higher than a year earlier. Long grain accounts for nearly all of this months upward revision in production, The 2001/02 U.S. long grain crop is estimated at a record 165.3 million cwt, up 2 percent from last months estimate and more than 28 percent larger than a year earlier. Both area and yield are higher than last year. Medium grain production is estimated at 46.1 million cwt, up 521,000 cwt from last months forecast, but 23 percent below a year earlier. The year-to-year reduction was the result of a 27-percent drop in area more than offsetting a 7- percent increase in yield. Medium grain area is down in both California and in the South. The 2001 short grain crop is estimated at 1.6 million cwt, a 38- percent drop from 2000/01. Short grain area and yield are below a year earlier. Rice acreage was revised up this month in all major producing States except California where area was unchanged. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the 24,000-acre upward revision in total U.S. rice acreage, with harvested area raised 14,000 acres to a near-record 1.621 million. Area revisions in other States were much smaller. USDA raised yield estimates this month for all producing States except California "where yields were lowered"and in Mississippi where yields were unchanged. Production estimates were revised up this month in all States except California, with Arkansas accounting for half the 3.3-million- cwt total increase. Californias crop was lowered fractionally. Arkansas, Missouri harvest record crops in 2001/02 Rice acreage expanded this year in every major producing State except California, with record plantings estimated for Missouri. Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the year-to-year expansion. Rice acreage in Arkansas is up 211,000 acres from last year. Louisianas rice area, estimated at 546,000 acres, is up 66,000 from 2000/01. Mississippis harvested area is estimated at 253,000 acres, an increase of 35,000. Missouris rice area rose 38,000 acres to 207,000. Texas rice acreage, estimated at 216,000 acres, is up 2,000 from 2000/01. In contrast, Californias rice area estimated at 471,000 acres, is down 77,000. Average yields are higher this year in all States except Texas, where yields are unchanged from 2000/01. Record yields are projected for all five southern rice producing States. Mississippi reported the largest increase in average yield this year, up 600 pounds to 6,500. Louisianas yield at 5,500 pounds, is up 420 from a year earlier. The Texas yield of 6,700 pounds is unchanged from the year earlier record and the highest among the southern producing States. Arkansas average yield is estimated at 6,250 pounds per acre, a 140-acre increase from 2000/01. Californias yield is estimated at 8,170 pounds per acre, 230 pounds higher than last year but well below the record 8,500 pounds achieved in 1991, 1992, and 1994. Rice production was higher this year for all reporting States except California, with Arkansas and Missouri harvesting record crops. Arkansas rice crop of 101.3 million cwt is up nearly 18 percent from a year earlier. Production jumped 28 percent in both Mississippi "to 16.4 million cwt" and in Missouri to 12.3 million. Louisianas rice production rose 23 percent to 30 million cwt. Rice production in Texas rose 1 percent to almost 14.5 million cwt. In contrast, 2001 rice production dropped 12 percent in California to 38.5 million cwt. Total supply for 2001/02 is projected at a record 252.5 million cwt, up more than 1 percent from last months forecast "a result of a larger crop" and more than 10 percent higher than a year earlier. There were no revisions to beginning stocks and imports this month. 2001/02 U.S. domestic use and exports raised due to lower milling yield Total U.S. rice use for 2001/02 is projected at 210.1 million cwt, up 3 million cwt from last months forecast and 5 percent higher than a year earlier. Both domestic use and exports were raised this month, primarily due to a 1-percentage point reduction in the estimated milling rate to 68 percent. Total domestic use is estimated at 122 million cwt, a 1-million cwt increase from last months forecast and more than 4 percent above a year earlier. Food, industrial, and residual "estimated at a record 118 million cwt" accounts for almost all of this months increase. Seed use was raised fractionally. Total U.S. rice exports for 2001/02 were raised 2 million cwt to 88 million, up more than 5 percent from a year earlier. Milled and rough rice exports were each raised a million cwt this month. Milled rice exports are projected at 64 million cwt, nearly 6 percent higher than a year earlier. Rough rice exports are projected at 24 million cwt, up more than 5 percent from 2000/01. Lower U.S. prices, a much smaller price difference over Thailand, and record U.S. supplies are behind the higher total rice export forecast. According to USDAs weekly U.S. Export Sales, for the week ending January 3, 2002 combined exports and outstanding sales totaled 1.73 million tons (product- weight), up 5 percent from a year earlier. Exports of 1.2 million tons were 10 percent ahead of a year earlier. In contrast, outstanding sales of 521,200 tons were more than 3 percent behind a year earlier. As of January 3, 2002, combined shipments and outstanding sales were ahead of a year earlier to Mexico, Central America, Japan, Haiti, and Uzbekistan. In contrast, outstanding sales and shipments were behind a year earlier to Turkey, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 42.5 million cwt, up fractionally from last month and more than 49 percent larger than a year earlier. U.S. ending stocks are the largest since 1986/87. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 20.2 percent, virtually unchanged from last month, but well above a year earliers 14.2 percent and the largest since 1992/93. U.S. 2001/02 long grain supply projection raised to record 186 million cwt Total U.S. long grain supply in 2001/02 is projected at a record 186 million cwt, up 3 million cwt from last month "a result of a larger crop" and more than 21 percent larger than a year earlier. A 28-percent increase in long grain production to a record 165.3 million cwt more than offset a 26-percent decline in beginning stocks to 11.6 million cwt. Imports "projected at 9 million cwt" are up 3 percent from a year earlier. Total long grain use was raised 3 million cwt to a record 159 million cwt, more than 12 percent larger than a year earlier. Long grain domestic use was raised 1 million cwt to a record 87.1 million, almost 15 percent larger than last year. Long grain exports were increased 2 million cwt to 72 million, up 10 percent from 2000/01. Ending stocks for long grain rice are projected at 26.9 million cwt, fractionally above last months forecast and 131 percent larger than a year earlier. Long grain ending stocks are the largest since 1986/87. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 16.9 percent, the largest since 1992/93. Total medium/short grain supply for 2001/02 was raised fractionally "the result of slightly larger production" to 65.3 million cwt, down 13 percent from a year earlier. On an annual basis, a 23-percent drop in production to 47.7 million cwt more than offset an almost 50 percent increase in beginning stocks to 15.6 million cwt. In addition, imports are projected at 2 million cwt, fractionally below a year earlier. Total medium/short grain use is projected at almost 60 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last month but 14 percent smaller than a year earlier. Domestic use for medium/short grain is projected at 35 million cwt, down 15 percent from a year earlier. A shift to long grain from medium/short grain by brewers and processed food manufacturers is expected to account for most of the decline in medium/short grain domestic use. Medium/short grain exports are projected to decline 11 percent to 16 million cwt, a result of slightly higher U.S. medium grain prices and smaller supplies. Ending stocks of medium/short grain rice are projected at 14.4 million cwt, down 8 percent from a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 28.2 percent, up from 26.3 percent a year earlier. Based on data from USDAs January 2002 Rice Stocks report, total U.S. rice stocks on December 1, 2001 totaled 163.4 million cwt (rough basis), up 14 percent from a year earlier. Long grain accounted for all of the increase. Long grain stocks were calculated at 115.5 million cwt, a 24-percent increase from a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain stocks were calculated at 46.1 million cwt, down 13 percent from a year earlier. U.S. monthly cash prices for rough rice lowest in 15 years The 2001/02 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $4.10 to $4.40 per cwt, a tightening of 10 cents on both the high and low ends. The SAFP is well below a year earliers $5.56 and the lowest since 1986/87. The SAFP has declined every year since 1997/98. Last month, the USDA estimated Decembers mid-month cash price at $4.09 per cwt and lowered Novembers to $4.08 from a preliminary $4.23. These are the lowest monthly cash prices since August 1987. Reported monthly cash prices have remained below a year earlier since December 1997. There has been little change in weekly price quotes for southern long grain rough rice since early November. Prices did rise fractionally in December, largely a response to higher world prices. By early January, prices had dropped back to November levels in most southern rice producing States. For the week ending January 8, 2002, cash prices in Southwest Louisiana were reported around $4.00 per cwt, down 20 to 25 cents from December. In Texas, long grain prices were quoted at $3.93 per cwt, down about 5 cents from December but nearly unchanged from November. In the Delta, prices were quoted around $3.85 per cwt, pennies below the December average but 10 cents higher than November. Prices for California medium grain rice continue to strengthen, primarily due to a smaller harvest in 2001. Prices for California medium grain rough rice were calculated at around $5.39 per cwt for the week ending January 8, 2002, up 25 to 40 cents from December. Because the bulk of Californias rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of milled rice. In the Delta, where almost all southern medium grain is grown, medium grain prices were quoted around $4.44 per cwt for the week ending January 8, 2002, down about 30 cents from December but nearly unchanged from November. INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK Production forecasts for 2001/02 lowered for Pakistan, Cambodia, and Uzbekistan Global rice production for 2001/02 is projected at 392.6 million tons (milled basis), down 200,000 from last month and more than 1 percent below a year earlier. Production remains almost 4 percent below the 1999/2000 record. Global consumption is projected at a record 404.2 million tons, fractionally below last months forecast but 1.2 million tons above a year earlier. Global ending stocks are projected at 125.4 million tons, down slightly from last month and more than 8 percent below a year earlier. This is the second consecutive year of declining global ending stocks. China accounts for most of the year-to-year decline in global stocks in 2000/01 and 2001/02. Pakistan accounts for the bulk of this months reduction in global production. Pakistans 2001/02 rice production was lowered 360,000 tons to 3.74 million based on a lower yield caused by severe irrigation water shortages. In addition, Cambodias production was lowered 132,000 tons to 2.27 million tons, a result of smaller area and a slightly lower yield. Finally, Uzbekistans production was lowered 13,000 tons to 42,000 due to a much lower average yield, a result of severe drought in the region. Nearly offsetting these reductions were several increases. Egypts crop was raised 153,000 tons to 3.58 million based on a much higher "and record" yield. Brazils 2001/02 production was raised 80,000 tons to 7.48 million based on a larger harvested area. Cubas production was raised 34,000 tons to 169,000, with both area and yield increased from last month. Please note, this month USDA made major revisions to Cubas production, supply, and demand estimates beginning in 1990/91 based on data from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Rice production in South Korea was raised 15,000 tons to 5.52 million based on Korean Government data reporting a higher yield. Finally, the U.S. rice crop was raised fractionally to 6.57 million tons based on slightly higher area and yield. Global 2000/01 production was raised 100,000 tons to 397 million, nearly 3 percent below a year earliers record. There were two revisions. First, Egypts crop was raised 65,000 tons to a record 3.97 million based on government data reporting a much higher yield. Area was actually slightly lowered. And second, Cubas production was raised 35,000 tons to 1.65 million due to a higher average yield. Global rice trade projected to drop 5 percent in 2002 Global rice trade for calendar year 2002 is projected at 22.5 million tons (milled basis), down 50,000 from last months forecast and 1.2 million tons below a year earliers revised level. The year-to-year decline in global trade is primarily due to weaker projected imports for Nigeria and the Philippines that more than offset larger imports by Indonesia and Iran. Among the major exporters, Thailand, Pakistan, and China are projected to export less rice in 2002, while India, Vietnam, and the United States are projected to expand exports. There were several significant 2002 trade revisions this month. On the export side, Chinas 2002 exports were reduced 500,000 tons to 1.5 million based on trade policy changes resulting from accession to the World Trade Organization this year. In addition, Pakistans 2002 exports were lowered 400,000 tons to 1.1 million based on a smaller 2001/02 crop. Nearly offsetting these reductions was an 800,000-ton increase in Indias exports to 2.3 million. The increase is based on record supplies, competitive prices for parboiled rice, and high-percentage brokens shipments a result of government subsidies, and much weaker exports from Pakistan. Finally, U.S. exports were raised 50,000 tons to 2.75 million based on larger supplies and more competitive prices. The only country-specific import revision was a 10,000- ton drop in Gambias imports to 25,000 tons based on revised 2001 imports. For 2001, global trade was raised 300,000 tons to 23.7 million, down 4 percent from a year earlier and 14 percent below the 1998 record of 27.7 million tons. On the export side, Thailands exports were raised 300,000 tons to 7.5 million, and Egypts were raised 100,000 tons to a near-record 650,000. Partially offsetting these increases was a 100,000-ton drop in Chinas exports to 1.7 million. All three revisions were based on shipment data. Imports were revised up 10,000 to 20,000 tons each for Gambia, Cameroon, Liberia, and Benin; all based on shipment data. International prices rise on tight supply situation in Vietnam and Pakistan Thai export prices for higher grades of regular milled rice have increased almost $20 per ton since early-November, a result of a tight supply situation in Vietnam and Pakistan, intervention purchases by the Thai Government, and recent sales. Quotes for high-quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $193 per ton for the week ending January 8, up about $9 from a month earlier and $19 higher than early November. These are the highest prices since early February. Prices for 5-percent regular milled white rice "quoted at $188 per ton" are up $18 since early November. Prices for Thailands parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were quoted at $189 per ton for the week ending January 8, down more than $10 from a month earlier. Prices have dropped substantially since October due to strong competition from India. India has been a major competitor in the global parboiled market since May when the government began subsidizing parboiled exports. Prices for lower quality rice have increased at a much slower rate than for higher quality grades. Prices for Thai 35-percent brokens quoted at $164 per ton for the week ending January 8, up $5 from a month earlier and $10 higher than early November. Prices for Thai A.1 Special 100-percent brokens were quoted at $136 per ton, nearly unchanged since mid-November. Prices for Vietnams regular milled white rice have risen about $30 per ton since mid-September. Prices for Vietnams 5-percent brokens (f.o.b. Ho Chi Minh City) were reported at $198 per ton for the week ending January 8, up $7 from a month earlier and $15 higher than early November. Vietnams prices are currently quoted at $10 per ton higher than prices for comparable grades of Thai rice. Vietnam is expected to make few new sales until harvest of its main winter- spring crop in February-March. Vietnam typically sells its rice at $15 to $25 per ton lower than comparable qualities of Thai rice. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, domestic sales) were quoted at $220 per ton for the week ending January 7, unchanged from last month but $56 below prices in August. Prices are the lowest since August 1987. Record U.S. supplies and low international prices are behind the weaker U.S. prices. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was just $27 per ton for the week ending January 8, down $9 from a month earlier and well below the more than $100 per ton reported in early August. U.S. rice is typically competitive with Thai rice when U.S. rice is selling at no more than $30 to $50 per ton above comparable grades of Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) were quoted at $287 per ton for the week ending January 7, up more than $60 from early September. The higher prices are due to a smaller crop this year. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on February 11, 2002. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present Table 3-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1999/2000 to present Table 4-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to present Table 5-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present Table 6-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ======================================================================= 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ======================================================================= TOTAL RICE Percent ARP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.335 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.314 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,429 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 213.0 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.9 11.0 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 229.2 252.5 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.8 113.1 118.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.1 Total Domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 117.2 122.0 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.9 83.5 88.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 22.8 24.0 Milled 5/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 60.7 64.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 200.7 210.1 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 42.5 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 14.2 20.2 $/cwt Average farm price 6/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.56 $4.10 to $4.40 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 68.6 68.0 ========================================================================= N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================ Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 2.714 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 2.697 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 6,130 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 165.3 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 8.8 9.0 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 153.1 186.0 Domestic use 4/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.1 76.0 87.1 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.8 65.5 72.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 141.5 159.1 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 26.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 8.2 16.9 ____________________________________________________________________________ --continued Table 2-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================ Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 0.621 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 0.617 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 7,733 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 47.7 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 Total supply 5/ 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 74.8 65.3 Domestic use 4/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.8 41.2 35.0 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.1 18.0 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 59.2 51.0 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 14.4 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 26.3 28.2 Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 ========================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. Table 3-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1999/2000 to present ============================================================================= 2001/02 2000/01 1999/2000 ===================== =================== ================== Month $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= August 5.10 12,616 5.60 10,925 6.94 9,516 September 4.78 9,960 5.72 10,228 5.78 44,994 October 4.36 12,850 5.61 13,119 5.97 11,995 November 4.08 11,515 5.63 12,191 6.02 10,575 December 4.09 1/ 11,735 1/ 5.60 12,427 6.08 10,828 January 5.84 15,068 6.02 14,812 February 5.72 12,296 5.88 9,863 March 5.55 11,549 5.71 8,224 April 5.59 11,074 5.75 5,589 May 5.15 8,994 5.63 5,893 June 5.01 7,877 5.80 4,790 July 5.25 8,474 5.65 6,406 Average 2/ 4.48 11,735 5.56 11,185 5.93 11,957 Total 3/ $4.10-$4.40 4/ 134,222 143,485 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary mid-month estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2001/02 is through current month only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2001/02 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 4-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to 2001/02 ========================================================================== 2001/02 2000/01 1999/2000 Month =================== ===================== ================== Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========================================================================== $/cwt (rough basis) August 2.97 2.57 2.58 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 September 3.09 2.69 2.70 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 October 3.18 2.80 2.81 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 November 3.22 2.85 2.86 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 December 3.37 3.02 3.02 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 January 1/ 3.37 3.02 3.02 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 February 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 March 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 April 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 May 2.94 2.57 2.55 4.09 3.58 3.72 June 2.96 2.59 2.57 4.09 3.40 3.53 July 2.93 2.55 2.53 4.09 3.48 3.61 Average 2/ 3.20 2.83 2.83 3.31 2.98 2.96 4.59 4.22 4.25 =========================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 5-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Country 2001/02 2000/01 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 or as of as of Market Market Market Market region 1/3/01 1/3/00 year year year year ============================================================================= 1,000 metric tons European Union 184 253 364 387 340 324 Other Western Europe 11 11 13 18 20 17 Turkey 43 171 171 231 100 115 Eastern Europe 0 0 1 1 0 0 Former Soviet Union 54 0 1 57 43 2 Japan 205 193 296 374 324 250 OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 194 218 318 395 203 183 Jordan 11 21 14 21 41 42 Indonesia 0 0 23 118 26 0 Saudi Arabia 85 91 140 151 106 96 Philippines 36 104 104 59 0 0 AFRICA 81 127 182 171 157 171 Cote d'Ivoire 0 6 12 20 0 31 Ghana 39 25 73 70 61 64 Liberia 9 17 9 3 0 0 South Africa 27 55 57 70 81 67 WESTERN HEMISPHERE 927 619 1,305 1,410 1,741 1,718 Brazil 0 0 2 4 555 28 Canada 78 74 100 102 122 107 Colombia 1 2 17 1 11 297 Costa Rica 1 1 82 84 41 102 Dominican Republic 1 7 56 56 61 93 Guatemala 34 12 36 42 29 25 Haiti 95 61 158 144 164 100 Honduras 81 50 106 114 47 63 Jamaica 12 20 32 35 15 26 Leeward & Windward Is. 4 3 4 11 11 16 Mexico 421 303 583 629 417 397 Nicaragua 98 50 85 95 61 35 Panama 7 0 2 15 8 88 Peru 1 1 1 19 118 99 El Salvador 38 19 51 55 30 49 Trinidad 5 7 9 0 23 21 UNKNOWN 22 0 0 0 N/A N/A TOTAL 1,723 1,634 2,651 3,044 2,929 2,780 ============================================================================= 1/ Columns labeled "Market year" are total August-July exports reported in U.S. Export Sales. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and Outstanding sales at a particular date. U.S. Export Sales reports on a product-weight basis. Food aid donations are not included in U.S. Export Sales. Table 6-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ ======================= ================================== ===== Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled Grade Par- =========== A-1 7/ bro- year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas B boiled Brokens Special kens ============================================================================= $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 369 470 418 284 276 261 236 217 257 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 276 243 342 172 171 154 138 123 153 June 2001 276 243 342 177 180 158 144 130 154 July 2001 276 243 342 177 198 160 148 137 156 2000/01 272 313 357 184 187 167 149 132 165 Aug 2001 267 243 334 174 202 160 149 141 176 Sep 2001 243 231 287 178 214 167 157 148 173 Oct 2001 243 287 287 174 213 165 155 146 177 Nov 2001 226 287 287 178 198 167 156 135 191 Dec 2001 220 287 287 184 197 173 160 134 192 Jan 2002 9/ 220 287 287 193 189 179 164 136 198 2001/02 9/ 237 270 295 180 202 169 157 140 185 ============================================================================= N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100-pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4-percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100-percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. END_OF_FILE