RICE OUTLOOK February 11, 2002 February 2002, ERS-RCS-0202 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board The Rice Outlook is issued 11 times a year electronically from the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. Printed copies are not available. Beginning in March 2002, this report will be released only in PDF format. Acrobat Reader 4.0 or later is required to view and print this document. To download and get help using the Adobe Acrobat Reader, please go to http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html. Subscribers who receive e-mail notification will be provided a URL link to the report (http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/so/view.asp?f=field/cws-bb/) in the message block of the e-mail. U.S. 2001/02 RICE IMPORTS PROJECTED AT RECORD 12.5 MILLION CWT SUMMARY: A 1.5-million hundredweight (cwt) (rough basis) increase in U.S. 2001/02 rice imports to a record 12.5 million cwt boosted total rice supplies to 254 million cwt, the largest on record. The upward revision in imports was based on a larger than expected pace of shipments through November reported by the Bureau of Census. There were no revisions to production or ending stocks this month. On the demand side, food, industrial, and residual was raised 1 million cwt to a record 119 million. Seed use was raised fractionally. A 1-million-cwt increase in rough rice exports was offset by a 1-million cwt reduction in milled rice exports, leaving total U.S. exports projected at 88 million. Total exports are nearly 2 percent higher than a year earlier. These revisions resulted in a 1- percent increase in ending stocks to 42.9 million cwt, the largest since 1986/87. The season-average farm price range remains projected at $4.10 to $4.40 per cwt, down from a year earliers revised estimate of $5.61 per cwt and the lowest since 1986/87. Projections for 2001/02 global rice production and consumption were fractionally lowered this month. Smaller production forecasts for Thailand, Mexico, and Russia were partially offset by larger forecasts for Spain and Taiwan. Global rice production for 2001/02 is forecast at 392.2 million tons (milled basis), more than 1 percent below a year earlier and the second consecutive year of declining global production. China accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year drop in global rice production. Global rice consumption is projected at a record 403.7 million tons, up 900,000 tons from 2000/01. The net result of these revisions is a 570,000-ton increase in the 2001/02 global stock projection to 126 million cwt, more than 8 percent below a year earlier. Global trade for calendar year 2002 remains projected at 22.5 million tons, 7 percent smaller than a year earlier. Larger imports in 2002 by Indonesia and Iran are expected to be offset by smaller imports by Nigeria, the Philippines, Cote dIvoire, and the United States. The U.S. price difference over Thailand has declined substantially since the start of the 2001/02 market year. For the week ending February 4 the difference was just $5 per ton, the smallest since the mid-1990s. While Thai prices have risen almost $20 per ton since mid-November, U.S. prices have declined $16. U.S. prices are currently the lowest in more than 30 years. Despite recent strengthening, global prices will again be under pressure after Vietnams winter-spring crop is harvested in February-March. DOMESTIC OUTLOOK Record Imports Boost U.S. 2001/02 Total Supplies to 254 Million Cwt There were no changes to 2001/02 production or beginning stocks this month. The 2001/02 U.S. rough rice crop remains projected at a record 213 million hundredweight (cwt), 22 million cwt above a year earlier. Beginning stocks" estimated at almost 28.5 million cwt" are up nearly 4 percent from a year earlier. Imports for 2001/02 are projected at 12.5 million cwt, an increase of 14 percent from last months forecast and more than 15 percent larger than a year earlier. The upward revision in imports is based on a larger than expected pace of shipments through November by the Bureau of the Census. Large shipments from Australia to Puerto Rico in October and November were reported by the Census Bureau. Total U.S. supply for 2001/02 is projected at a record 254 million cwt, up 1 percent from last months forecast and 11 percent higher than a year earlier. Total U.S. rice use for 2001/02 is projected at a record 211.1 million cwt, up 1 million from last months forecast and almost 4 percent higher than a year earlier. Domestic use accounts for all of the month-to-month revision. Total domestic use is estimated at 123.1 million cwt, up 1 million from last months forecast and 5 percent above a year earlier. Food, industrial, and residual" estimated at a record 119 million cwt" accounts for almost all of this months increase. Seed use was raised fractionally. Total U.S. rice exports for 2001/02 remain projected at 88 million, up 2 percent from a year earliers revised level. Rough rice exports were raised 1 million cwt to 25 million, up 10 percent from a year earlier. The upward revision was based on shipment pace to date. According to the U.S. Department of Agricultures (USDA) weekly Export Sales report, through January combined exports and outstanding sales of rough rice were well ahead of a year earlier to Mexico and Central America. In contrast, combined shipments and sales to Turkey were substantially behind a year earliers pace. A 1-million cwt drop in milled rice exports to 63 million cwt offset higher rough rice exports. Milled rice exports are fractionally below a year earliers revised level. Despite record supplies, low prices, and the smallest price difference over Thailand since the mid-1990s, U.S. milled rice exports are behind a year earliers pace to three historically strong U.S. milled rice markets; the European Union (EU), Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. According to USDAs weekly U.S. Export Sales, for the week ending January 31, 2002, combined exports and outstanding sales totaled 1.93 million tons (product- weight), up just 1 percent from a year earlier. Exports of 1.44 million tons were more than 7 percent ahead of a year earlier. In contrast, outstanding sales of 491,000 tons were more than 14 percent behind a year earlier. As of January 31, 2002, combined shipments and outstanding sales were ahead of a year earlier to Mexico, Central America, Haiti, and Uzbekistan. In contrast, outstanding sales and shipments were behind a year earlier to Turkey, the EU, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 42.9 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month and 51 percent larger than a year earlier. U.S. ending stocks are the largest since 1986/87. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 20.3 percent, virtually unchanged from last month, but well above a year earliers 14 percent and the largest since 1992/93. U.S. Long Grain Supplies Projected at Record 186.5 Million Cwt The higher total rice import forecast resulted in revisions to supply and use projections by class. A 500,000-cwt increase in long grain imports to a record 9.5 million cwt was responsible for a fractional increase in long grain supplies to 186.5 million cwt, 22 percent larger than a year earlier and the highest to date. Domestic use and exports were unchanged. The larger long grain supplies resulted in a 2-percent increase in ending stocks to almost 27.4 million cwt, 135 percent larger than a year earlier. For combined medium/short grain rice, a 1-million-cwt increase in imports to a record 3 million cwt boosted combined medium/short supplies almost 2 percent to 66.3 million cwt. Despite the upward revision, medium/short grain supplies are almost 12 percent smaller than a year earlier. The larger supplies were responsible for a 1-million-cwt increase in medium/short grain domestic use to 36 million cwt, still 8 percent smaller than a year earlier. Exports remain projected at 16 million cwt, down 21 percent. Total medium/short grain use was raised 2 percent to 52 million cwt, down almost 13 percent from 2000/01. Medium/short grain ending stocks were lowered fractionally to 14.3 million cwt, 8 percent smaller than a year earlier. The only revision to the 2000/01 supply and use projections was a 2.9-million- cwt increase in exports to 86.4 million cwt. The increase was the result of revised Census trade data. Milled rice exports "estimated at 63.7 million cwt" account for all of the upward revision. Rough rice exports were reduced fractionally to 22.7 million cwt. Food, industrial, and residual was lowered to account for the higher export estimate. Medium/short grain exports were raised more than 2.3 million cwt to 20.3 million, the largest since 1996/97. Long grain exports were raised 570,000 cwt to 66.1 million, still 4 million cwt below 1999/2000. Long Grain Rough Rice Prices Continue Tto Decline. The 2001/02 season-average farm price (SAFP) remains projected at $4.10 to $4.40 per cwt, well below a year earliers revised $5.61 and the lowest since 1986/87. The SAFP has declined every year since 1997/98. Last month, the USDA estimated Januarys mid-month cash price at $4.18 per cwt and lowered Decembers 2 cents to $4.08. These are the lowest monthly cash prices since August 1987. Reported monthly cash prices have remained below a year earlier since December 1997. Weekly price quotes for southern long grain rough rice prices have dropped slightly since early January. For the week ending February 4, 2002, cash prices in the Delta were reported around $3.77 per cwt, down 10 cents from a month earlier. In Texas, long grain prices were quoted at $3.88 per cwt, down about 5 cents from late December and early January. In Southwest Louisiana, prices were quoted around $3.75 per cwt, down 25 cents from early January and 50 cents lower than 2 months ago. Record supplies and a lack of new export sales are behind the decline in long grain prices in the South. Prices for California medium grain rice remain well above long grain prices and are up slightly from a month earlier. Prices for California medium grain rough rice for the week ending February 5 were calculated at around $5.54 per cwt, up 15 cents from early January. Tighter supplies are behind this years higher prices. Because the bulk of Californias rough rice is sold under some type of a pooling method, rough rice prices are determined by the price of milled rice. In the Delta, where almost all southern medium grain is grown, medium grain prices were quoted around $4.34 per cwt for the week ending February 5, down about 10 cents from January and 40 cents below December price quotes. INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK Production Forecasts for 2001/02 Lowered for Thailand, Mexico, and Russia Global rice production for 2001/02 is projected at 392.2 million tons (milled basis), down more than 410,000 from last month and more than 1 percent below a year earlier. Production remains almost 4 percent below the 1999/2000 record. China accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year reduction in global rice production. Global consumption is projected at a record 403.7 million tons, almost 500,000 tons below last months forecast but up fractionally from a year earlier. Thailand accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month reduction in global rice consumption. Global ending stocks are projected at 126 million tons, up 570,000 tons from last month but more than 8 percent below a year earlier. This is the second consecutive year of declining global ending stocks. China accounts for most of the year-to-year decline in global stocks in 2000/01 and 2001/02. Thailand accounts for the bulk of this months reduction in global production. Thailands 2001/02 rice production was lowered 330,000 tons to 16.5 million based on Ministry of Agriculture data reporting lower area. In addition, Mexicos production was lowered 73,000 tons to 185,000 due to lower area and a slightly weaker yield. This is the smallest crop since 1993/94. Finally, Russias crop was lowered 40,000 tons to 322,000 due to a much lower average yield. Nearly offsetting these 3 reductions were 2 increases. First, Spains crop was raised 21,000 tons to 621,000 based on a higher "and record" yield. And second, Taiwans 2001/02 production was raised 9,000 tons to almost 1.25 million based on government data reporting larger plantings. Global 2000/01 production remains projected at 397 million, nearly 3 percent below a year earliers record. Upward revisions almost totally offset downward revisions. Thailands production was raised 70,000 tons to 16.9 million based on government data reporting larger plantings. In addition, Russias production was raised 21,000 tons to 381,000 due to a higher yield. In contrast, Mexicos production was lowered 55,000 tons to 215,000 based on government data reporting lower area and a weaker yield. This month USDA made major revisions to Thailands domestic consumption and ending stocks estimates for market years 1999/2000, 2000/01, and 2001/02. The revisions were based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Bangkok and expectations regarding changes in per capita consumption. For each year, USDA lowered domestic consumption and raised ending stocks. Reduced consumption estimates resulted in ending stocks of about 1.7 million tons for each of the 3 years. These are the largest ending stocks since 1989/90. Revisions in Thailands ending stocks were responsible for the bulk of the upward revision in global ending stocks from 1999/2000 to 2001/02. Global Rice Trade Projected to Drop 7 Percent in 2002 Global rice trade for calendar year 2002 remains projected at 22.5 million tons (milled basis), 1.7 million tons below a year earliers revised level. The year- to-year decline in global trade is primarily due to weaker projected imports for Nigeria, the Philippines, Cote dIvoire, North Korea, and the United States more than offsetting larger imports by Indonesia, Iran, and Russia. Among the major exporters, Thailand, Pakistan, and China are projected to export less rice in 2002, while India, Vietnam, and the United States are projected to expand exports. The only revision this month to 2002 global trade was a 25,000-ton increase in U.S. imports to 350,000 tons, a result of revised 2001 imports. The "Unaccounted" category was lowered to offset higher U.S. imports. Despite the upward revision, U.S. imports are projected to decline 50,000 tons in 2002. For 2001, global trade was raised almost 500,000 tons to 24.2 million, up 6 percent from 2000. Nearly all revisions were based on shipment or delivery data. On the export side, Burmas exports were raised 168,000 tons to 668,000, the largest since 1985. Chinas exports were raised 159,000 tons to 1.86 million. Egypts exports were raised 75,000 tons to 725,000, the largest since 1969. Argentinas exports were raised 75,000 tons to 350,000. Smaller upward revisions were made for Australia and Thailand this month. On the import side, U.S. imports were raised 85,000 tons to a record 400,000 tons. Cote dIvoire imports were raised 75,000 tons to a record 700,000. Finally, Chinas imports were raised 42,000 tons to 267,000. These increases were partially offset by a 50,000-ton decrease in Colombias imports to 50,000 tons and a 50,000-ton drop in Perus imports to 100,000 tons. Global Prices Are Up $25 Per Ton from Early November Thai export prices for most grades of Thailands regular milled rice have increased almost $25 per ton since early-November, a result of a tight supply situation in Vietnam and Pakistan, intervention purchases by the Thai Government, and large purchases by Middle Eastern countries. Quotes for high- quality Thai white rice (100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $199 per ton for the week ending February 4, up about $6 from a month earlier and $25 higher than early November. Prices are the highest since July 2000. Prices for 5-percent regular milled white rice "quoted at $194 per ton" are up $6 from a month earlier and $25 higher than early November. Prices for Thailands parboiled rice (5-percent brokens) were quoted at $195 per ton for the week ending February 4, up $6 from a month earlier but about $5 below prices quoted in late November and early December. Prices have dropped substantially since October due to strong competition from India. India has been a major competitor in the global parboiled market since May when the government began subsidizing parboiled exports. Prices for lower quality rice have increased at a slower rate than for higher quality grades. Prices for Thai 35-percent brokens were quoted at $155 per ton for the week ending February 5, up $5 from a month earlier and almost $15 higher than early November. Prices for Thai A.1 Special 100-percent brokens were quoted at $145 per ton, up nearly $10 from both a month earlier and early November. In addition to parboiled rice, India has been subsidizing exports of low quality rice, primarily to Sub-Saharan Africa. Prices for Vietnams regular milled white rice rose more than $25 per ton from September through early January. Prices for Vietnams 5-percent brokens (f.o.b. Ho Chi Minh City) were reported at $199 per ton for the week ending January 8, up $26 from early September. However, since mid-January, Vietnams prices have declined about $10 per ton as exporters are discounting prices for shipments after the harvest of the countrys winter-spring crop. Prices are currently quoted at $188 per ton, $6 below prices for comparable grades of Thai rice. Vietnam typically sells its rice at $15 to $25 per ton lower than comparable qualities of Thai rice. Prices for U.S. long grain milled rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Houston, domestic sales) were quoted at $204 per ton for the week ending February 4, down $16 from a week earlier. Prices had remained at $220 per ton since mid-November. Prices are currently the lowest since the late 1960s. Record U.S. supplies and low international prices are behind the extremely low U.S. prices. The difference between Thai 100-percent Grade B and U.S. long grain number 2, 4-percent brokens was just $5 per ton for the week ending February 4, down from $27 a month earlier and well below the more than $100 per ton reported in early August. U.S. rice is typically competitive with Thai rice when U.S. rice is selling at no more than $30 to $40 per ton above comparable grades of Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain milled rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, bagged, f.o.b. Sacramento, for the domestic market) were quoted at $287 per ton for the week ending February 4, up more than $60 from early September. The higher prices are due to a smaller crop this year. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can find this document at http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/rept- fc.htm#riceup in PDF and ASCII formats. It is available in ASCII at approximately 4:00 pm Eastern time on the day of release and in PDF a day later. The next Rice Outlook is scheduled for release at 4:00 pm on March 11, 2002. INFORMATION CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292. TABLES: Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present Table 2-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present Table 3-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1999/2000 to present Table 4-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to present Table 5-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present Table 6-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 1-U.S. rice supply and use, 1996/97 to present 1/ ======================================================================= 2000/01 2001/02 Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2/ 3/ ======================================================================= TOTAL RICE Percent ARP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Area Million acres Planted 2.824 3.125 3.285 3.531 3.060 3.335 Harvested 2.804 3.103 3.257 3.512 3.039 3.314 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,429 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 25.0 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 Production 171.6 183.0 184.4 206.0 190.9 213.0 Imports 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.1 10.9 12.5 Total supply 207.2 219.5 223.0 238.2 229.2 254.0 Food, industrial, & residual 4/ 97.7 99.8 109.6 117.9 110.2 119.0 Seed 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.1 Total Domestic use 101.6 103.9 114.0 121.9 114.3 123.1 Exports 78.3 87.7 86.8 88.8 86.4 88.0 Rough 12.7 26.1 25.8 25.2 22.7 25.0 Milled 5/ 65.6 61.6 61.1 63.6 63.7 63.0 Total use 179.9 191.6 200.9 210.7 200.7 211.1 Ending stocks 27.2 27.9 22.1 27.5 28.5 42.9 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 15.1 14.6 11.0 13.0 14.2 20.3 $/cwt Average farm price 6/ 9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.61 $4.10 to $4.40 Percent Average milling rate 70.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 68.6 68.0 ========================================================================= N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Market year weighted average. Table 2-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/ ============================================================================ Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ LONG-GRAIN Million acres Planted 1.983 2.327 2.589 2.731 2.206 2.714 Harvested 1.967 2.309 2.568 2.718 2.189 2.697 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 6,130 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 10.1 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 Production 113.6 124.5 139.3 151.9 128.8 165.3 Imports 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 8.5 9.5 Total supply 132.9 146.5 162.2 173.5 152.8 186.5 Domestic use 4/ 61.3 59.7 76.7 87.6 75.1 87.1 Exports 57.4 72.3 71.4 70.3 66.1 72.0 Total use 118.7 132.0 148.2 157.9 141.2 159.1 Ending stocks 14.1 14.5 14.1 15.6 11.6 27.4 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 11.9 11.0 9.5 9.9 8.2 17.2 ____________________________________________________________________________ --continued Table 2-U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1996/97 to present 1/--continued ============================================================================ Item 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN Million acres Planted 0.841 0.798 0.696 0.800 0.854 0.621 Harvested 0.837 0.794 0.689 0.794 0.850 0.617 Pounds per harvested acre Yield 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,822 7,308 7,733 Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 14.3 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 Production 58.0 58.5 45.1 54.2 62.1 47.7 Imports 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 3.0 Total supply 5/ 73.3 71.9 59.6 63.3 75.1 66.3 Domestic use 4/ 40.3 44.2 37.4 34.3 39.2 36.0 Exports 20.9 15.4 15.4 18.6 20.3 16.0 Total use 61.2 59.6 52.8 52.9 59.2 51.0 Ending stocks 12.1 12.3 6.8 10.4 15.6 14.3 Percent Stocks-use-ratio 19.8 20.7 12.9 19.7 26.3 27.5 Ending stocks difference 1/ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 ========================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types in table 1. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. 5/ Accounts for difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short grain may not equal sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. Table 3-U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1999/2000 to present ============================================================================= 2001/02 2000/01 1999/2000 ===================== =================== ================== Month $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= August 5.10 12,616 5.72 10,925 6.91 9,516 September 4.78 9,960 5.53 10,228 6.17 44,994 October 4.36 12,850 5.57 13,119 5.91 11,995 November 4.08 11,515 5.72 12,191 5.96 10,575 December 4.07 11,445 5.69 12,427 6.01 10,828 January 4.18 1/ 11,667 1/ 5.86 15,068 5.98 14,812 February 5.72 12,296 5.82 9,863 March 5.66 11,549 5.64 8,224 April 5.68 11,074 5.75 5,589 May 5.40 8,994 5.62 5,893 June 5.14 7,877 5.69 4,790 July 5.32 8,474 5.59 6,406 Average 2/ 4.43 11,667 5.61 11,185 5.93 11,957 Total 3/ $4.10-$4.40 4/ 134,222 143,485 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary mid-month estimate. 2/ Price is market year weighted average; 2001/02 is through current month only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 2001/02 is August to current month only. 4/ USDA season-average farm price projection. Table 4-USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1999/2000 to 2001/02 ========================================================================== 2001/02 2000/01 1999/2000 Month =================== ===================== ================== Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========================================================================== $/cwt (rough basis) August 2.97 2.57 2.58 3.99 3.37 3.37 5.38 5.05 4.94 September 3.09 2.69 2.70 3.69 3.16 3.16 5.26 4.90 4.80 October 3.18 2.80 2.81 3.54 3.30 3.30 5.02 4.70 4.60 November 3.22 2.85 2.86 3.48 3.29 3.29 4.66 4.33 4.23 December 3.37 3.02 3.02 3.40 3.19 3.18 4.62 4.32 4.22 January 3.41 3.07 3.07 3.38 3.17 3.16 4.70 4.44 4.34 February 1/ 3.45 3.14 3.18 3.34 3.12 3.10 4.53 4.35 4.50 March 3.08 2.76 2.74 4.32 4.13 4.29 April 2.99 2.64 2.62 4.28 4.01 4.17 May 2.94 2.57 2.55 4.09 3.58 3.72 June 2.96 2.59 2.57 4.09 3.40 3.53 July 2.93 2.55 2.53 4.09 3.48 3.61 Average 2/ 3.24 2.88 2.89 3.31 2.98 2.96 4.59 4.22 4.25 =========================================================================== 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 5-U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1997/98 to present 1/ ============================================================================= Country 2001/02 2000/01 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 or as of as of Market Market Market Market region 1/3/01 1/3/00 year year year year ============================================================================= 1,000 metric tons European Union 209 273 364 387 340 324 Other Western Europe 14 12 13 18 20 17 Turkey 45 175 171 231 100 115 Eastern Europe 0 0 1 1 0 0 Former Soviet Union 54 0 1 57 43 2 Japan 247 251 296 374 324 250 OTHER ASIA/MIDDLE EAST 208 278 318 395 203 183 Jordan 11 17 14 21 41 42 Indonesia 0 0 23 118 26 0 Philippines 36 104 104 59 0 0 Saudi Arabia 95 107 140 151 106 96 AFRICA 98 132 182 171 157 171 Cote d'Ivoire 0 6 12 20 0 31 Ghana 45 29 73 70 61 64 Liberia 9 17 9 3 0 0 South Africa 31 55 57 70 81 67 WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1,047 795 1,305 1,410 1,741 1,718 Brazil 0 0 2 4 555 28 Canada 91 85 100 102 122 107 Colombia 1 2 17 1 11 297 Costa Rica 2 1 82 84 41 102 Dominican Republic 1 8 56 56 61 93 Guatemala 40 19 36 42 29 25 Haiti 107 74 158 144 164 100 Honduras 95 64 106 114 47 63 Jamaica 12 20 32 35 15 26 Leeward & Windward Is. 7 3 4 11 11 16 Mexico 477 407 583 629 417 397 Nicaragua 112 55 85 95 61 35 Panama 7 0 2 15 8 88 Peru 1 1 1 19 118 99 El Salvador 40 35 51 55 30 49 Trinidad 5 6 9 0 23 21 UNKNOWN 11 0 0 0 N/A N/A TOTAL 1,933 1,916 2,651 3,044 2,929 2,780 ============================================================================= 1/ Columns labeled "Market year" are total August-July exports reported in U.S. Export Sales. Columns labeled "as of" are combined exports and Outstanding sales at a particular date. U.S. Export Sales reports on a product-weight basis. Food aid donations are not included in U.S. Export Sales. Table 6-U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam milled rice prices, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= U.S. 2/ Thailand 5/ Viet 6/ ======================= ================================== ===== Month or Long Medium Par- 100% 5% 15% 35% 5% marketing grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled Grade Par- =========== A-1 7/ bro- year 1/ Texas Calif. Texas B boiled Brokens Special kens ============================================================================= $ per metric ton 8/ 1993/94 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 N/A 1994/95 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 N/A 1995/96 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 N/A 1996/97 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 N/A 1997/98 415 396 455 302 292 275 237 197 269 1998/99 369 470 418 284 276 261 236 217 257 1999/2000 284 454 395 231 242 209 185 160 202 Aug 2000 254 419 361 193 208 175 160 144 183 Sep 2000 257 408 364 185 192 170 157 143 176 Oct 2000 271 375 364 193 200 176 157 137 178 Nov 2000 276 349 364 191 190 173 153 128 177 Dec 2000 276 334 364 190 188 173 153 129 170 Jan 2001 276 317 364 190 189 174 153 135 168 Feb 2001 276 290 364 190 184 174 152 134 163 Mar 2001 276 276 364 182 174 165 142 126 151 Apr 2001 276 258 346 170 164 154 135 121 147 May 2001 276 243 342 172 171 154 138 123 153 June 2001 276 243 342 177 180 158 144 130 154 July 2001 276 243 342 177 198 160 148 137 156 2000/01 272 313 357 184 187 167 149 132 165 Aug 2001 267 243 334 174 202 160 149 141 176 Sep 2001 243 231 287 178 214 167 157 148 173 Oct 2001 243 287 287 174 213 165 155 146 177 Nov 2001 226 287 287 178 198 167 156 135 191 Dec 2001 220 287 287 184 197 173 160 134 192 Jan 2002 220 287 287 197 193 184 170 143 193 Feb 2002 9/ 204 287 287 199 195 185 169 145 188 2001/02 9/ 232 273 294 183 202 172 160 142 184 ============================================================================= N/A = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. 2/ 100-pound bags, domestic market. Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4-percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes, fob Bangkok, long grain. U.S. agricultural counselor, Bangkok. 6/ Fob Saigon. Price quotes from industry sources. 7/ 100-percent brokens. 8/ Bagged. 9/ Preliminary. END_OF_FILE