SUGAR AND SWEETENERS July 10, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUGAR AND SWEETENERS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. SSS-220. Please note that this release contains only the text of SUGAR AND SWEETENERS tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #SSS, $19/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contents Summary World Sugar Overview Production in Selected Countries Consumption Trade, Stocks, and Prices U.S. Sugar Production Consumption Trade Stocks and Prices Policy U.S. Corn Sweeteners Production and Use Trade Prices and Costs List of Tables Internet and Autofax Access to Data Report Coordinator Ron Lord (202) 219-0888 FAX (202) 219-0042 E-mail: RLORD@ECON.AG.GOV Principal Contributors Ron Lord Nydia Suarez Database Coordinator/Graphics & Table Design Fannye Lockley-Jolly Layout & Text Design Wynnice Napper Word Processing Betty Barrett Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Summary released June 19, 1997. The next Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook report is scheduled for release on September 19, 1997. Text and summaries may be accessed electronically. For details on electronic access, call ERS Customer Service (202) 219-0515. Summary The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecast for global sugar consumption in 1997/98, released May 29, calls for an increase of 1.8 percent. The increase of 2.2 million metric tons, raw value (MTRV), to 125 million, represents a continuation of a long-run trend increase in world sugar consumption. However, per capita world sugar consumption has been relatively stagnant at just under 20 kilograms (refined) per year for many years. The USDA forecast for world centrifugal sugar production in 1997/98 is 122.4 million MTRV, unchanged from the release of May 13, except for the June 12 revisions for the United States. World production would be almost the same as the revised 1996/97 estimate of 122.3 million and 1995/96 production of 122.3 million. The 1996/97 estimate for world sugar production has been revised to 122.3 million MTRV, down 1.7 million from the March 1997 estimate of 124.0 million. World sugar trade in 1997/98 is projected at 36.2 million MTRV, up from 35.8 million in 1996/97. World trade has been rising as a share of production, and for 1997/98 would be almost 30 percent. Brazil doubled exports from 2.9 to 5.8 million MTRV in 1997/98. The European Union (EU-15), once the leading sugar exporter, is forecast to export 5.15 million MTRV next year. Prospects are for Ukrainian exports to continue at 1.1 million MTRV, about the same as 1996/97 but down from over 3 million MTRV in 1990/91. The top six exporters (Brazil, EU, Thailand, Australia, Cuba, and Ukraine) account for 70 percent of total exports. The world spot raw sugar price has averaged below the year-earlier level for all months since October 1995. However, the world price has been rising from a low of 11.06 cents a pound in February 1997 to average 11.54 cents in May, and has been over 12 cents for the first 13 trading days in June. The March 1998 futures price for raw sugar averaged 11.15 cents a pound for the first 13 trading days in June. The world refined sugar price averaged 13.97 cents a pound during January-March 1997, down 3.80 cents from 17.80 cents in January-March 1996. U.S. sugar production in 1997/98 (October 1997-September 1998) is projected at 7.5 million short tons, raw value (STRV), up 3.4 percent from the revised estimate for 1996/97. Beet sugar production is forecast at 4.3 million STRV. Sugarbeet acreage is up 7 percent, attributable to lower returns to alternative crops, relatively strong sugar prices this year, and increases in factory beet slicing capacity. The main impact of the flooding in the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota on the sugarbeet crop was to delay plantings in affected areas, and shift some sugarbeet acreage to drier land. Planting progress this spring was ahead of normal in many parts of the United States, including parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. U.S. 1997/98 cane sugar production is unchanged from last year at 3.2 million STRV. This forecast assumes no change in area for Florida, but slightly higher sugar output of 1.75 million STRV. Louisiana sugar production in 1997/98 is forecast at 975,000 STRV, down 7 percent from the near-record 1996/97 crop if yields return to normal. Sugar production in Hawaii has declined from over 1 million STRV in the mid-1980s to a projected 340,000 STRV in 1997/98. After a poor crop in 1996/97, due in part to a 4-year drought, Texas is projected to produce 110,000 STRV of sugar in 1997/98 following rains which have replenished some reservoirs. U.S. sugar consumption (deliveries) for 1997/98 is forecast at 9.75 million STRV, up 1.0 percent or 100,000 from the revised estimate for the current year. Anticipated growth is below trend due to increased use of corn sweeteners and to increased imports of products containing sugar. Per capita use, having risen about 5 pounds over the last decade, would grow only marginally from 66.5 to 66.6 pounds (refined) a year. U.S. 1996/97 sugar production is estimated at 7.25 million STRV, 4.05 million from beets and 3.5 million from cane. Sugar consumption for 1996/97 is estimated at 9.65 million STRV, which would be an increase of 96,000 STRV or 1.0 percent over 1995/96. The raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for 1996/97 was set on September 13, 1996 at 2.54 million STRV. In January, 220,000 STRV were canceled, so the final raw sugar TRQ was 2.32 million STRV. Current estimates of the TRQ shortfall are 70,000 STRV. As of the beginning of June, 1.24 million STRV of the TRQ had entered the United States, leaving approximately 1.00 million STRV yet to enter. Beginning stocks in 1997/98 are forecast at 1.58 million STRV, which would be up 84,000 STRV from beginning stocks for 1996/97. Stocks on April 1, 1997 totaled 3.9 million STRV, compared with 3.3 million a year earlier. Beet processors held 1.75 million STRV, 45 percent of the total, up 340,000 STRV from a year earlier, reflecting in part a larger crop, but also a desire to preserve stocks to fulfill sales commitments in the April-September period. U.S. raw sugar prices (nearby futures, c.i.f., duty-paid, Contract No. 14, New York) averaged 21.60 cents a pound in the first 13 market days of June. The price averaged 21.70 cents in May compared with 22.62 cents in the same month a year earlier. Wholesale refined beet sugar prices (f.o.b. plant, Midwest markets) have held at 28 cents a pound since March 1997, compared with 29.50 cents in May 1996. U.S. production of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in calendar 1997 is projected to rise to 8.5 million tons, dry basis, up from 8.2 million tons in 1996. HFCS production has expanded with higher soft drink consumption, a new factory, and increased capacity at other factories. HFCS-55 production is forecast at 5.4 million tons, up 300,000 tons and HFCS-42 at 3.1 million, up 25,000 tons. List prices for HFCS will not appear in future issues of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook report. Instead, Midwest spot prices will be published for HFCS-42. This price averaged 10.56 cents a pound, dry basis, for February through May 1997, down almost 4 cents from the price which prevailed from January through December 1996. In 1995, the spot HFCS-42 averaged 15.50 cents a pound, dry basis. Printed copies of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook report will be available in about a week. For further information contact Ron Lord (202) 219-0888, rlord@econ.ag.gov. Text of the full report also will be available electronically. For details call (202) 219-0515. World Sugar 1/ In this report, world sugar estimates are given in metric tons equal to 2,204.62 pounds, or 1,000 kilograms. U.S. estimates are presented in short tons equal to 2,000 pounds, or 907.185 kilograms. All estimates are expressed in raw value, unless otherwise specified. It takes 1.07 tons of cane sugar, raw value, to produce 1.0 ton of refined sugar. For beet sugar, the factor is 1.07 tons raw value sugar to 1.0 ton of refined sugar in the United States, and 1.087 tons in other countries. Overview The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecast for world centrifugal sugar production in 1997/98 is 122.4 million metric tons raw value, unchanged from that released on May 13 except for revisions in the U.S. forecast released June 12. World production would be almost the same as the revised 1996/97 estimate of 122.3 million and 1995/96 production of 122.3 million.2/ 2/ Based on national marketing years in all countries. Sugar produced from sugarcane is forecast at 86.0 million tons, up 1 percent from last year. Sugar processed from sugarbeets is forecast at 36.4 million tons, down 3 percent from last season and 11 percent less than the record 41.1 million produced in 1990/91. The 1997/98 cane sugar production season has already started in the Southern Hemisphere where good crops are forecast for the major producers, Brazil, South Africa, and Australia. In the Northern Hemisphere, the sugarcane harvesting and processing season runs from October through April. The new sugarbeet crop, almost all in the Northern Hemisphere, was mostly planted this spring. Concerns about drought in Europe remain, although spring rains have occurred in some areas of Europe. In the United States, beet plantings were delayed in the northern Red River Valley due to flooding, but planting in most other areas was finished earlier than average. The beet harvest and processing season begins in September in both Europe and North America. Weather will play a key factor in development of large segments of the global cane and beet crops over the next several months. USDA's forecasts presented in this report assume that "normal weather," i.e. normal temperatures and precipitation levels, will prevail. The 1996/97 estimate for world sugar production has been revised to 122.3 million tons, down 1.7 million from the March 1997 estimate of 124.0 million. The reduction is mainly due to decreases in the following countries: India, down 914,000 tons to 14.7 million; Indonesia, down 355,000 tons to 2.1 million; Pakistan, down 230,000 tons, to 2.4 million; and Cuba, down 200,000 tons to 4.4 million. Production in Selected Countries Canada: The beet sugar factory in Winnipeg, Manitoba closed in early 1997, and the one factory left in Taber, Alberta is projected to produce 115,000 tons of sugar, raw value, in 1997/98. Production from the two factories in 1996/97 was 145,000 tons. Acreage is forecast to decline from 23,500 hectares in 1996/97 to 15,000 hectares in 1997/98. Alberta beets are irrigated, and generally had much higher yields than unirrigated Manitoba. Over 3,000 hectares of sugarbeets are forecast to be grown in Ontario for delivery to a U.S. factory in Michigan. Roger's Sugars Ltd. announced a 3-year modernization project that will increase the capacity of the Alberta factory to about 150,000 tons per year. The first increase in acreage is planned for 1998/99. One of the leading Mexican sugar companies recently announced that it had purchased a stake of about 5 percent of the stock of Vancouver-based B.C. Sugar Refinery Ltd., which owns Rogers Sugar Ltd. and Lantic Sugar Ltd. in Canada, and Refined Sugars Inc. in Yonkers, New York. Mexico: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at an all-time high of 4.8 million tons, 2 percent greater than the record 4.7 million tons currently estimated for 1996/97. Although cane area is forecast to be unchanged from last year, cane yields are expected to be higher. The current projection pegs the average yield at 73.7 tons of sugarcane per hectare for the 1997/98 crop, up from 69.9 tons per hectare in 1996/97. For the current season, recovery of sugar (tel quel) from cane is running about 10.8 percent through late May, compared with 10.91 percent a year earlier. Latin America Cuba: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at 4.5 million tons, slightly higher than this year's crop. The forecast upturn is a result of a fairly successful planting season from January-May 1997, when over 300,000 acres of cane were planted for harvest between November 1997 and June 1998. Cuba's Government has announced plans to plant over 900,000 acres in 1997 to boost production in upcoming years, but it is not clear whether this target will be met. In 1996 and 1995, 650,000 acres were planted. The USDA's current estimate of Cuba's 1996/97 production was released May 13 at 4.4 million tons. Recent reports indicate that as of early June, Cuba's season is rapidly winding down with only 4.2 million tons produced, and prospects for only a very small additional amount to be produced by the few mills which continued to operate. Cuba had earlier projected 1996/97 output of at least 5 million tons, and the lower crop will likely complicate repayment of credits from foreign banks and trading houses and negotiations for future credits. The rise in output from the 50-year low of 3.3 million tons in 1994/95 to 4.45 million tons in 1995/96, boosted by hundreds of millions of dollars of short-term foreign credits, gave a large boost to the economy. A similar result had been expected for the 1996/97 crop, and the disappointing crop is a blow to the economy. Serious consideration is being given to allowing some of Cuba's 156 mills to close as part of an effort to increase efficiency. A focus on efficiency would be new, as in the past, Cuba has attempted to maximize sugar output, not minimize cost. Though tourism has greatly surpassed sugar as a foreign exchange earner, the Cuban Government continues to declare that sugar is vital to the recovery of the island's economy. Brazil: Sugar production for 1997/98 (July-June) is forecast at an all-time high of 14.8 million tons, up 1 percent from this season because of record cane production. Brazil would be the world's single largest producer of centrifugal sugar after being second to India in recent years. During the past 5 years, Brazil has increased sugar output by 60 percent, mainly as a result of expanded use of improved varieties and increased cane area, and also the diversion of cane from ethanol to sugar production. Sugarcane plantations are fully recovered from the damage caused by the 1994 frost which was followed by a drought. The total area of cane harvested for sugar and ethanol production in 1997/98 is forecast at 4.4 million hectares. Sugarcane production for 1997/98 is forecast at 294 million tons, up 4 percent from 1996/97. Sixty-four percent of this sugarcane is forecast to be used for ethanol, and 36 percent for sugar. In 1996/97, Brazil imported 400 million liters of ethanol, 600 million liters of methanol, and 160 million liters of MTBE. However, no imports of alcohol are expected in 1997/98 due to higher domestic production, a new law which reduces the attractiveness of financing for many imported goods, and a probable increase in the tariff on alcohol. Ethanol production in 1997/98 will likely exceed 15 billion liters, up from 14.16 billion in 1996/97. It is unclear what the future holds for Brazil's ethanol program. The prices of anhydrous ethanol (used in blended fuels, as is done in parts of the United States) were scheduled to be decontrolled May 1, 1997, and the price of hydrous ethanol (used pure and requires a special engine) is scheduled to be decontrolled May 1, 1998. However, some policy is likely to remain in place to promote or support the use of ethanol. Sugar exports may return more money than sales of ethanol for some Brazilian companies which have the capacity to produce either product (especially if alcohol prices drop following price decontrol). However, Brazil is now such a large presence in world sugar trade that increased sugar exports would at some point lower the world price and tend to increase the relative profitability of ethanol. European Union (EU-15): The European Union's 1997/98 sugar production forecast of 17.6 million tons is down 4 percent from last season. The USDA classifies sugar production from the Department D'Outre Mer (DOM) countries of Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Reunion as part of the European Union-15 production. All major sugar-producing member states are projecting lower sugar output in 1997/98 except Italy, where production is forecast to remain stable at 1.6 million tons. This forecast reflects relatively dry conditions in the spring, and that there will be no repeat of the favorable autumn rains that boosted 1996/97 production. If dry conditions continue, startup of EU harvest might be delayed in the fall. The European Union accounts for 48 percent of the world's production of beet sugar. A new Portuguese beet factory is forecast to start production in 1997/98, so that Portuguese beets will no longer all be processed in Spain. Poland: Production in 1997/98 is projected at 1.9 million tons, down from the record crop of 2.5 million tons in 1996/97. Since the bumper crop last year exceeded the sum of domestic marketing quotas and the maximum volume of exports which Poland can subsidize under World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments, many producers had to accept world prices for portions of sugar exported. With large stocks on hand and no desire to again export at world prices, many processors are offering contract prices for next year which are not very attractive relative to prospective prices of alternative crops such as rapeseed and grains. Area will likely fall from 451,000 hectares this year to 400,000 in 1997/98. Processors will now offer contracts based on tonnage, not area, and distinguish prices for sugarbeets within Quota A (domestic sugar sales), Quota B (exported with subsidy), and Quota C (all other sugar: implicitly exported without subsidy). Roughly 260,000 private farmers grow sugarbeets with an average of 1.74 hectares of sugarbeets per farm. Russian Federation: Russia's sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at 1.8 million tons, up slightly from the previous year's revised output of 1.75 million tons. Last year, factories processed 14.7 million tons of beets, 91 percent of total production. Area planted to sugarbeets in spring 1997 was slightly below last year's 1.1 million hectares. Frosts in early May damaged some sugarbeets, and there are reports that acreage successfully planted in spring 1997 may turn out lower than initially forecast, which could reduce next year's crop. Harvest normally starts the first or second week of October. Ukraine: Production is forecast to drop for the third consecutive year, to 2.85 million tons, raw value, in 1997/98, down from last year's 2.9 million tons. The Ukraine produced over 4 million tons in the early 1990s. During the current period of economic transformation, the sugar industry is facing shortages of funds to purchase needed inputs, and the government has not maintained producer prices to match inflation. Egypt: Record sugar production of 1.23 million tons is forecast for 1997/98; 1.03 million tons from cane and 200,000 tons from beets. Sugarcane is grown mainly in upper Egypt where it accounts for about 15 percent of the total arable land area. Sugarcane is relatively well adapted to the extreme summer heat of this region. Typically, sugarcane is planted in the fall. Harvesting operations normally begin 13 to 15 months later, and harvesting usually runs from December through April. The commercial production of sugarbeets began in the early 1980's in the Delta region in an effort to stem the rising trend in imports and to reduce the country's dependence on sugarcane as the sole source of sugar. Sugarbeets are normally planted in October-November; processing begins in February and lasts through June. Beet sugar production is projected to expand in the next few years and reach 20 percent of total production by 1999. South Africa: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at 2.5 million tons, above last year's 2.4 million and significantly up from the previous four drought-ravaged crops which were below 2 million tons. Irrigation dams are full, rainfall for the new season was good, and the industry is optimistic for a return to better harvests for the next few years. The cane harvest for the 1997/98 season appears promising and is forecast at 22.0 million tons, up from 21 million last year. The industry will be deregulated by the start of the 1998 season, but the transition is going well so far, and no major problems are foreseen. China: Sugar production in China for 1997/98 is forecast at 7.2 million tons, up 1 percent from last season based on projections of increased production of beet and cane sugar. Approximately 80 percent of China's sugar production comes from sugarcane. Sugarcane area is forecast to increase slightly in 1997/98 due to continued expansion in Guangxi and Yunnan Provinces. Sugarbeet area planted is forecast to increase in 1997/98, but only slightly as farmers in northeastern provinces often find grains and other crops more profitable. Sugarbeet area remained stable in 1996/97 at 695,000 hectares, though production declined slightly due to drought during planting. India: Sugar production for 1997/98 is projected at 13.7 million tons, down 7 percent from last season due to a 6-percent reduction in the volume of cane for centrifugal sugar, and slightly lower yields. Sugarcane and sugar production are projected to continue trending downward as ongoing delays in producer payments cause growers to shift away from cane production and use fewer inputs. These developments, coupled with expanding use of cane non-centrifugal sugar, have resulted in a 25-percent reduction in centrifugal sugar production since the record production of 18.2 million tons in 1995/96. Production estimates include khandsari sugar, which for 1997/98 is projected at 776,000 tons. Thailand: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 6.4 million tons, up 2 percent from 1996/97. The increase reflects continuing expansion of the area planted to cane in the northeast part of the country where farmers are increasingly switching from cassava to sugarcane in response to good prices. The continuation of advance payments to farmers provided by sugar mills should encourage producers to grow cane. Sugar output is divided into three quotas. Sugar for domestic consumption is quota A, about 1.7 million tons of plantation white sugar. Quota B is raw sugar for export covered by long term export contracts. Quota C is the balance, sugar destined for export on world markets. As is happening in other countries such as Brazil, the use of mechanical harvesting is growing rapidly. There will likely be more than 1.05 million hectares of sugarcane next year, up from 1.03 million hectares this year. A significant part of returns to both mills and farmers is derived from, and varies with, the world sugar price. Australia: A record production of 5.7 million tons is forecast for 1997/98, up 3 percent from last season due to increased land assignments. Harvested area in 1997/98 is expected to exceed the 1996/97 area by 10,000 hectares for a total of 412,000. The 1996/97 production of 40 million tons of cane was the fifth consecutive record. A recent competition review has resulted in removal or reform of many regulations, including the elimination of the sugar import tariff as of July 1, 1997. Consumption Sugar Use Continues To Expand USDA's initial forecast for global sugar consumption in 1997/98, 125 million tons, was released in USDA's May 1997 Sugar: World Markets and Trade. The annual increase of 2.2 million tons, or 1.8 percent, represents a continuation of a long-run trend increase in world sugar consumption. However, per capita world sugar consumption has been relatively stagnant at just under 20 kilograms (refined) per year for the many years. Consumption is expected to grow in most major consuming countries. The largest increase is projected for Asia, where consumption is forecast to grow 1.4 million tons, after growing 1.7 million tons in each of the 2 previous years and over 9.8 million tons, or 29 percent, in the last 7 years. In that period, Asia's share of world sugar consumption will have risen from 30 to 35 percent. The largest absolute increase is forecast for India, up 480,000 tons or 3.2 percent for 1997/98 and up 3.5 million tons in the last 7 years, one-fourth of the world total increase. India's consumption of over 15.8 million tons is almost double the next largest consuming country, the United States. China's growth has also been impressive, up 1.3 million tons since 1990/91. The percentage increase of sugar consumption in some Asian countries in the last 7 years has been truly remarkable: Malaysia, up 71 percent; Vietnam and Indonesia each up 43 percent; the Philippines up 40 percent; Thailand, up 38 percent; Pakistan, up 31 percent; India, up 29 percent; and the Republic of Korea, up 27 percent. Growth in per capita consumption is strongest in Malaysia, forecast up to 57 kilograms in 1997/98 which would represent a jump of 18 kilograms (47 percent) in 7 years. Strong increases in per capita consumption are also found in Thailand, the Philippines, Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, and India. China's annual per capita sugar consumption has only risen from 6.1 to 6.7 kilograms since 1990/91, still among the lowest in the world and far below the world average of 19 kilograms. The region with the next largest increase in consumption is South America, where 1997/98 is expected to see growth of 400,000 tons. Consumption in Brazil is expected to grow 300,000 tons as economic stabilization has stimulated consumption of soft drinks, ice cream, candy, and other sugar-containing products. All South American countries are expected to consume more sugar next year, as most countries of the region are experiencing good economic growth. Sub-Saharan Africa is not usually regarded as a growth market for sugar, but the region's consumption is expected to rise by 250,000 tons next year, perhaps the largest single-year growth in its history, to 5.4 million tons. In 1996/97, the region's sugar consumption fell, and in most recent years sugar consumption generally has experienced only slow growth. But South African consumption is forecast to grow 4 percent to 1.46 million tons, and per capita consumption to rise to 31.6 kilograms. Other countries with increases include Zimbabwe and Nigeria. But Nigeria's per capita consumption will rise from 4.2 to 4.4 kilograms, well below the Sub-Saharan African average of about 8 kilograms. The economic troubles of the countries of the Newly Independent States (NIS) continue to dampen sugar consumption. For the region, sugar consumption in 1997/98 is forecast down 70,000 tons. However, consumption in the region fell 3 million tons from 1990/91 to 1996/97, or 500,000 tons a year, so 1997/98 may represent the end of the steep drop in consumption which has accompanied the turmoil since the break-up of the NIS. Russian consumption is expected to decline 100,000 tons to 5 million, while in the Ukraine consumption is forecast flat at 2.1 million tons. While the economic situations in many of these newly independent countries has not improved greatly, the contraction in sugar use in many of them has apparently stopped. Consumption of sugar in Russia is very sensitive to price, and the price of sugar in Russia depends upon the tariff rate and also upon a 20-percent value-added tax (VAT) on imported sugar. There are reports that Russia is considering eliminating the VAT on Ukrainian sugar, which could lower the Russian sugar price. Trade, Stocks, and Prices World sugar trade in 1997/98 is projected at a record 36.2 million metric tons, up from 35.8 in 1996/97. Recorded exports typically exceed recorded imports, but it is assumed that the difference is unrecorded imports, which are added as a balancing item to imports and also to consumption. World trade has also been rising as a share of production, and for 1997/98 would be almost 30 percent. Brazil doubled exports from 2.9 to 5.8 million tons in 2 years, from 1993/94 to 1995/96, and is projected to again export 5.8 million tons in 1997/98 but could export even more if the ethanol policy increases the relative profitability of sugar. The EU-15, which long held the position of leading sugar exporter, has fallen behind Brazil and is forecast to export 5.15 million tons next year. Prospects for Ukrainian exports will continue to fall, as the government appears not to rank further supports to the sugar industry as a top priority for government support. The top six exporters account for 70 percent of total exports. Russian imports this year will be very important to the direction of the world price, and recent news that Russian plantings are behind schedule could imply higher imports next year. Also lending strength to the world market is the United States, which has imported an average of about 2.5 million tons the last 2 years, up almost 800,000 tons from the previous 3 years. The top six importers (Russia, China, and Korea along with the EU, Japan, and the United States) accounted for 35 percent of world imports in 1996/97. In recent years, a number of former exporters have joined the ranks of importers, including the Philippines which is projected to import 500,000 tons next year. Pakistan is projected to import 200,000 tons next year after 600,000 tons this year, and Indonesia 1.2 million tons after 1.3 million this year. As a region, Asia is projected to import 11.8 million tons next year, up 50 percent in 6 years. The world ending stocks-to-use ratio fell in 1996/97 to 20.2 percent, from 21.5 percent the year before. The stocks-to-use ratio is likely to fall again in 1997/98, since projected consumption exceeds production by 2.5 million tons, but a specific forecast will not be available until the U.S. tariff-rate quota is announced later in the summer. The world spot raw sugar price (Contract No. 11, New York Coffee, Sugar, & Cocoa Exchange) averaged below the year-earlier level for all months since October 1995, and there has been a downward trend of the world price since it peaked in January 1995 at 14.87 cents a pound. However, the world price has recently been rising from a low of 11.06 in February 1997 to average 11.54 cents in May, and was over 12 cents for the first 10 trading days in June. Also contributing to a stronger price outlook is the situation in India. The large surplus stocks built up over the last 2 years in India will now not likely be exported to the world market, since India's sugar production is forecast to decline by almost 5 million tons in 1997/98 from its peak in 1995/96, the second consecutive year in which production lags consumption. The world refined sugar price (London Daily Price, Contract No. 5) averaged 13.97 cents a pound during January-March 1997, down 3.80 cents from 17.80 cents in January-March 1996. The premium of the refined price over the raw price (unadjusted for polarization) has slipped to under 3 cents a pound ($63 per metric ton) in the last quarter of 1996 and first half of 1997, after being above 4 cents and sometimes 5 cents ($88-$110 per metric ton) the previous year. New capacity in the refining industry has come on stream in the Middle East. A new facility in Dubai refined about 300,000 tons in 1996, and has capacity to increase operations to almost double that. A facility in Saudi Arabia has also been completed which has capacity for 500,000 tons, with plans to refine about 270,000 tons in 1997. There are plans to build a refinery in Oman with capacity of 360,000 tons. These new refineries will increase the demand for raw sugar and the supply of refined sugar, pressuring the world refined sugar premium, particularly for European refined beet sugar which at one time supplied much of the Middle East's refined sugar imports. Another factor which will affect the world refined sugar price will be next year's European beet sugar crop, which at this time looks to be average, but which could still be subject to considerable influence from weather. U.S. Sugar Production Production To Rise in 1997/98 U.S. sugar production in 1997/98 (October 1997-September 1998) is projected at 7.5 million short tons, raw value, up 3.4 percent from the revised estimate for 1996/97. Beet sugar production is forecast at 4.3 million tons representing 57 percent of total expected sugar production. Beet sugar production is forecast to increase 250,000 tons and cane sugar production is foreseen unchanged. USDA's forecast for beet sugar is based largely upon the March 29 National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Prospective Plantings report. Information gathered since March from beet sugar company officials and growers' associations indicate that national acreage may be slightly higher than indications in March. Revised acreage numbers will be released in the June 30 Acreage report. USDA's Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecasts total sugarbeet harvested acreage in 1997/98 at 1.43 million acres versus 1.33 million in 1996/97, a 7.8-percent increase (table 20). Percent of acreage harvested, sugarbeet yield, and recovery of beet sugar from sugarbeets are 5-year olympic averages (high and low years are dropped when calculating the average). The jump in sugarbeet acreage is attributable to lower returns to alternative crops, relatively strong sugar prices this year, as well as increases in factory beet slicing capacity in some areas necessary to accommodate the increased acreage. The main impact of the flooding in the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota on the sugarbeet crop was to delay plantings in affected areas, and shift some sugarbeet acreage to drier land. Planting progress this spring was ahead of normal in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota, and thus state-wide planting in both States was earlier than the 5-year average and last year. However, one large cooperative reports that planting this year was about 2 weeks behind normal, and the cooperative will allow 8 percent more than normal acres to offset expected lower yields. The weather has been warm in early June. The crop is fair, with decent stands of sugarbeets emerged, though some areas need rain. The March planting intentions indicated Michigan acreage in 1997 at 170,000 acres. The March 1996 planting intentions had indicated 175,000 acres in Michigan, but then damaging rainfall flooded out many acres in late spring 1996, and final acreage was only 153,000 acres. This year saw very early planting and emergence in Michigan. The region will also process beets from about 3,000 acres in Ontario, Canada, and a small acreage in Ohio. The Great Lakes Sugar Company, a subsidiary of the Michigan Sugar Company which owns a factory in northwestern Ohio, will not operate again in 1997/98, after not operating in 1996/97. The Imperial Valley of California, which harvests April-July and sometimes into August, is experiencing another strong crop, though it may not achieve what would be its seventh consecutive record production. Central California is also experiencing a good spring crop. The March planting intentions indicated California acreage at 95,000 acres planted, compared with 84,000 in the last year, but indications since March are that California may exceed 100,000 acres this year for harvest in fall 1997 and spring 1998. Trial plots of Roundup-resistant and Liberty Link-resistant sugarbeets are being grown in the United States, and it may be only 3 or 4 years until commercial adoption of these seeds is possible. A gene makes the beets resistant to the herbicide, which kills virtually all other plants (although the target is weeds) but not the sugarbeets with the special genes. Tests of this type are also occurring in Canada and Germany. The 1997/98 forecast assumes no change in sugarcane area for Florida, but slightly higher sugar output of 1.75 million tons, 55 percent of the U.S. total cane sugar output. Florida's sugar acreage and production has been fairly steady for the past 7 years, after expanding in the 1980s, and acreage is projected to remain about the same next year. Land in the East Coast Water Preserve Area and the Everglades Agricultural Area is being purchased by the South Florida Water Management District as part of efforts for the restoration of the Everglades. Some of the funding for land acquisition was provided for in the 1996 Farm Bill, some comes from the State, and some from farmers in the Everglades Agricultural Area who are paying about $25 per acre annually under provisions of the State's Everglades Forever Act, passed in 1994. So far, activities relating to Everglades restoration have not had a measurable impact on sugarcane acreage. Louisiana sugar production in 1997/98 is forecast at 975,000 tons, down 7 percent from the near-record 1996/97 crop. While Louisiana cane acreage will be up in 1997, yields are expected to drop from last year's exceptional yields to normal levels. A new growing area in western Louisiana of about 6,000 acres will be harvested this fall for seed cane to expand plantings which would be harvested in the fall of 1998. The new area may expand to 30,000 or more acres within a few years. The number of mills processing this fall in Louisiana will be 19, after which one mill is scheduled to close. In future years, there is expected to be a continued contraction in the number of mills. Sugar production in Hawaii has declined from over 1 million tons in the mid-1980s to a projected 340,000 tons of sugar in 1997/98. Prospects are for a return to better yields in 1997 after a poor showing last year due to soil problems. There are some indications that the industry may shrink further, however, it is likely that most of the current land will remain in sugar for many years. After a poor crop in 1996/97, due in part to a 4-year drought, Texas is projected to produce 110,000 tons of sugar in 1997/98. Rains have helped replenish reservoirs which provide water for irrigation, though water supplies will still not likely reach optimal levels. Puerto Rico is projected to produce 25,000 tons, the same as 1996/97. 1996/97 Production Sugar production in 1996/97 is estimated at 7.25 million tons, raw value (table 27). Beet sugar production for the first 7 months of 1996/97 (October-April) totaled 3.35 million tons, accounting for 83 percent of the forecast for the year, as did the corresponding period in 1995/96. Output from the new crop for September 1997 (the last production month in 1996/97) is likely to be stronger than last September when beet sugar production was 252,000 tons. The 5-year September average is 292,000 tons. Cane sugar production for 1996/97 is forecast at 3.2 million tons, down 7 percent from the year before. Florida finished producing in March, and ended up with a final crop of 1.68 million tons. The Florida crop was damaged primarily by a drought the previous July and, less severely, by a winter freeze. Data for Hawaii through March and preliminary data for April showed another fall-off in output. Three mills closed in 1996, and sugar production has now ceased entirely on the islands of Hawaii and Oahu. There remain three mills on Maui and three on Kauai. Hawaii customarily harvests and processes sugarcane every month of the year, with production traditionally picking up in March. But production was zero in January and February 1997, and October through April production was only 82,000 tons, compared with 158,000 tons for October-April the previous year. The USDA forecast for the current year remains 360,000 tons, as the remaining months of May through September are not expected to be much below 1995/96 levels since yields are expected higher. Louisiana produced 1.046 million tons, just shy of the record output of 1.057 million tons in 1995/96. The crop exceeded expectations, as excellent growing conditions in summer and fall offset lower acreage which resulted from freezes in early 1996. The yield of 27.9 tons of sugarcane per acre was almost a record, and the recovery rate of 11.30 percent was about average. In Texas, the 1996/97 sugar crop was 91,000 tons, the lowest since 1990, as Texas was suffering a fourth year of drought, and acreage harvested fell to 34,200 acres from 41,200 the year before. Puerto Rico had produced 25,000 tons through April. Consumption Sugar Delivery Growth Expected To Slow U.S. sugar consumption for 1997/98 is forecast at 9.75 million tons, up 1.0 percent or 100,000 from the revised estimate for the current year. The year-to-year anticipated growth rate is lower than during 1986-1996, when sugar deliveries grew by a total of 1.6 million short tons, or 1.9 percent a year. Anticipated growth is below trend due to increased use of corn sweeteners, and to increased imports of products containing sugar. Per capita use, having risen about 5 pounds over the last decade, would grow only marginally from 66.5 to 66.6 pounds (refined) a year. 1996/97 Use Estimate Lowered USDA has lowered the U.S. sugar consumption estimate for 1996/97 to 9.65 million tons, which would be an increase of 96,000 tons or 1.0 percent over 1995/96. In August and September 1996 (part of the prior fiscal year), there was a shortage of sugar in some areas, and some deliveries could not be made and were delayed into October and November (this fiscal year). When this spillover of deliveries from 1995/96 into 1996/97 is adjusted for, growth this year is even weaker than the statistics indicate. The revised 1996/97 estimate is based on sugar deliveries for domestic food and beverage use of 9.52 million tons, transfers to sugar-containing products for export under the re-export program of 120,000 tons, and transfers to polyhydric alcohol producers of 10,000 tons. The recent year-to-year increase in deliveries peaked in 1989/90 at 3.2 percent. Last year, deliveries rose 2.3 percent, after having been flat in 1994/95. Sugar deliveries for the first half of 1996/97 (October-March) totaled 4.69 million tons or 48.6 percent of the 1996/97 estimate. The previous 5-year average of the October-March period was 47.9 percent of the yearly total. The October 1996-March 1997 deliveries were up 1.41 percent over the prior year period, and the forecast increase for April-September 1997 deliveries is 0.6 percent over the prior year period. The breakdown of deliveries between beet and cane sugar shows beet sugar at 1.78 million tons for the first 6 months of 1996/97, 38 percent of the total, and cane sugar at 2.78 million tons and 59 percent of the total. The remaining 3 percent of total deliveries for the first half of 1995/96 included importers direct consumption, sugar re-exported in products, and sugar for polyhydric alcohol and livestock feed use. Table 23 has delivery details by month and quarter. During the first half of 1996/97, industrial use of sugar increased 6 percent to 2.50 million tons, (table 23). Bakery/cereal and confectionery sectors continue to underpin industrial use, accounting for 38 and 26 percent, respectively, of total deliveries to industrial users. While beverages now only account for less than 4 percent of industry use, in calendar 1996 beverage deliveries rose by 16 percent, up 28,000 tons. Deliveries to canned, bottled, and frozen foods rose 14 percent, 39,000 tons, and deliveries to bakery, cereal, and allied products rose 4 percent or 88,000 tons. The confectionery sector dropped 3 percent, down 37,000 tons, correlated with price increases in the sector during 1996. USDA also tracks deliveries to non-industrial users. This group registered 1.86 million tons for the first half of 1996/97 versus 1.84 million the year before. In this group, wholesale grocers, jobbers, and sugar dealers accounted for 58 percent, or 1.08 million tons of the total, and retail grocers and chain stores 35 percent, or 653,000 tons. Trade 1996/97 Raw Sugar TRQ Ends at 2.32 Million Tons The initial raw cane sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for 1996/97 was set on September 13, 1996 at 2.54 million tons. The raw sugar TRQ is based on individual allocations for 40 countries, including Mexico which is allocated under North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provisions. Under a new administrative plan for the 1996/97 TRQ, announced in September 1996, three tranches of 220,000 tons each were not initially allocated, but reserved until January, March, and May 1997. In each of those months, if the ending stocks-to-use ratio published in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was at 15.5 percent or lower (rounded to one tenth of a percent), then that month's 220,000-ton tranche would be allocated by the United States Trade Representative (USTR), otherwise it would be canceled. The entire 2.54 million tons of the announced raw sugar TRQ (other than shortfalls) was used in the WASDE report, until 220,000 tons was canceled in January 1997. The March and May tranches were allocated, so the final raw sugar TRQ amount was 2.32 million tons. Current estimates of the raw sugar TRQ shortfall are 70,000 tons. As of the beginning of June, 1.24 million tons of the revised raw sugar TRQ had entered the United States, leaving approximately 1.00 million tons to enter the United States during June-September. Total imports for 1996/97 are estimated at 2.71 million tons, of which 2.25 million are under the raw sugar TRQ, 23,000 tons under the refined sugar TRQ, 425,000 tons of sugar for the re-export programs, 10,000 tons for polyhydric alcohol for non-human consumption, and 5,000 tons of high-tariff imports. During 1996/97, U.S. refiners have operated much closer to capacity than in recent years, and have done less business under the re-export program than the previous year. A U.S. sugar import forecast for 1997/98 is not available, as the level of TRQ imports has not been set. Imports under USDA's re-export programs are forecast at 450,000 tons in 1997/98, and exports at 300,000 tons, largely consisting of refined sugar re-exports. The import tariff on 96-degree raw sugar imports is 0.625 cents a pound, and 1.66 cents a pound for refined sugar. Countries with special preferences such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), Caribbean Basin Countries (CBI) and Andean Preference countries have the low duty waived. Although GSP is currently expired, renewal by Congress is widely expected in the industry. The tariff on imports above the TRQ is 36.86 cents a kilogram (16.72 cents a pound) for raw cane sugar in 1997, and 38.90 cents a kilogram (17.65 cents a pound) on refined sugar. Stocks and Prices 1997/98 Beginning Stocks Projected Higher Beginning stocks in 1997/98 are forecast at 1.58 million tons, which would be up 84,000 tons from beginning stocks for 1996/97. Since the 1997/98 TRQ has yet to be set, no ending stock figure can be calculated for September 30, 1998, nor a stock-to-use ratio--an indicator of potential raw sugar market prices. Stocks at the beginning of 1995/96 were 1.24 million tons. Marketing allotments, as provided for in the 1990 Farm Act, had been in place for the full year of 1994/95, making changes to the TRQ impractical. During 1995/96, allotments were not imposed and the TRQ was adjusted upwards four times as the beet crop fell 500,000 tons from the year before, and consumption grew 200,000 tons. According to USDA's Sweetener Market Data, compiled and published by the Farm Service Agency, sugar stocks on April 1, 1997, the midpoint in the year, totaled 3.9 million tons, compared with 3.3 million a year earlier (table 26). Beet processors held 1.75 million tons, 45 percent of the total, up 340,000 tons from a year earlier, reflecting in part a larger crop, but also a desire to preserve stocks to fulfill sales commitments in the April-September period. Last year, some beet processors ran out of sugar late in the year. The remaining stocks were held by cane mills, 1.48 million (38 percent), and cane sugar refiners, 672,000 tons (17 percent). No stocks were held by USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Normally at their highest point around April 1, U.S. sugar stocks are then drawn down to meet domestic demand. Stocks are usually the lowest at the end of the fiscal year. U.S. raw sugar prices (nearby futures, c.i.f., duty-paid, Contract No. 14, New York) averaged 21.60 cents a pound in the first 13 market days of June. The price averaged 21.70 cents in May compared with 22.62 cents in the same month a year earlier. Wholesale refined beet sugar prices (f.o.b. plant, Midwest markets) have held at 28 cents a pound since March 1997, compared with 29.50 cents in May 1996. Policy FAIR Act of 1996 The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 became law on April 4, 1996. The new Farm Act (P.L. 104-127) removes the link between income support payments and farm prices for many commodities by providing for seven annual fixed-but-declining production-flexibility contract payments, whereby participating producers may receive government payments largely independent of farm prices. This contrasts the past when deficiency payments were dependent on farm prices. Under FAIR, the raw cane sugar loan rate is fixed at $0.18 a pound, and the refined beet sugar loan rate is frozen at the 1995-crop level of $0.229 per pound. Under FAIR, loans are recourse when the sugar import TRQ is at 1.5 million tons or below. When the TRQ exceeds 1.5 million tons, loans become nonrecourse. A recourse loan means the Government (USDA) can demand repayment of the loan at maturity, regardless of the price of sugar. In contrast, nonrecourse loans require that the Government accept the sugar when the loan matures in lieu of loan repayment in cash, at the option of the processor. The no-net-cost provision was not modified and has become obsolete. Cane processors are required to pay a penalty of $0.01 on each pound of sugar forfeited to the Government. Beet processors are required to pay $0.0107 per pound of sugar forfeited. The marketing assessments paid on all processed sugar are increased by 25 percent from previous levels. Authority for domestic sugar marketing allotments is suspended, but the remaining authorities to restrict imports (which must be at least 1.256 million tons, raw value, under the Uruguay Round Agreement) provide options for continued price support as long as import requirements remain higher than the Uruguay Round minimum levels. Proposed New Definition of Crop Year The Farm Service Agency (FSA) has proposed a new definition of crop year, changing it from a July-June to an October-September basis. The purpose of this new definition is to be consistent with the fiscal year, thus providing a better fit for sugar program administration and analysis. Another result of the change is that processors will be able to pledge any sugar they have for CCC loans during the months of July, August, and September. These loans would be limited to a total of 9 months, and would need to be paid off September 30 and repledged October 1. Previously, only processors who normally harvest in those months could pledge sugar for CCC loans, and only on sugar from the new crop year. The deadline for comments on the proposed rule was June 2, 1997, and a final rule is likely to be issued by July 1997. U.S. Corn Sweeteners Production and Use U.S. Corn Crop Forecast Higher Corn production in 1997/98 (September/August) is projected at 9.8 billion bushels, up 0.5 billion bushels from 1996/97. Corn plantings are expected to rise 2.4 percent to 81 million acres, and expected up 10 million acres from 2 years ago. This would be the highest since 1985, when plantings were 83.4 million acres. This compares with an average of 127.1 bushels per acre in 1996/97. Corn feed and residual use is projected to rebound 5 percent from its estimated use in 1996/97. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1997/98 may total 1,760 million bushels, up 5.4 percent from 1996/97. Use in corn sweeteners is expected to increase 2.7 percent. A new corn sweetener facility became operational in late 1996. Corn use in starch production is expected to increase 2 percent as the economy continues a modest expansion. Corn sweeteners represent nearly 8 percent of the projected domestic use of the 1997/98 crop, and 44 percent of FSI use. For 1997/98, corn used for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) is expected to total 530 million bushels, up 2.9 percent from the previous year. Corn used for glucose syrup and dextrose is expected to total 245 million bushels, up 2.1 percent (table 30). HFCS Continues To Expand U.S. HFCS production in calendar 1997 is projected to rise to 8.5 million short tons, dry basis, up from 8.2 million tons in 1996. This projection is based on the 1991-96 trend, excluding the high and low years. HFCS production has expanded with higher soft drink consumption, increases in capacity, and a down-turn in the ethanol market. HFCS-55 production is forecast at 5.4 million tons, up 300,000 tons, and HFCS-42 at 3.1 million, up 25,000 tons. Trade HFCS Exports to Mexico Jump in 1997 Corn sweetener exports to Mexico have risen every year since 1991, and in 1995/96 (October-September) reached 89,000 metric tons, dry basis. The largest corn sweetener export to Mexico is HFCS-55 syrup, at 47,000 tons in 1995/96. For the first 6 months of 1996/97 (October 1996-March 1997), HFCS-55 exports to Mexico are already 61,000 tons, well ahead of last year's pace. Some of the expansion of U.S. HFCS capacity in the last few years may have been intended to take advantage of the Mexican market. But future U.S. HFCS export prospects are now clouded by an anti-dumping investigation initiated by the Mexican sugar industry. A preliminary determination by the Mexican Government on the merits of the case should be made in early July, followed by a hearing in late August, with a final determination likely in October. Exports to Canada in 1995/96 dropped to 21,000 metric tons, dry basis, the lowest level in 6 years and down from 66,000 metric tons in 1990/91. However, exports of glucose syrup rose to a record 66,000 metric tons, boosting the total corn sweetener exports to Canada to over 111,000 tons, up from 81,000 in 1994/95. For the first 6 months of 1996/97, corn sweetener exports to Canada are 54,000 metric tons, about the same pace as last year. Prices and Costs Corn Prices Down, But Net Corn Costs Remain High The tight corn supply situation has resulted in strong corn prices. The average farm price for corn was $3.24 per bushel in 1995/96 (September-August marketing year) and is forecast by USDA at between $2.70 and $2.75 for 1996/97 and $2.25 and $2.65 for 1997/98. The cost of corn as a raw material input can be viewed either on a gross or net basis. The wet-milling process creates three valuable byproducts: corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. Sale of these byproducts generates revenues that reduce the gross cost of corn. When corn prices rise, so usually do the byproduct prices, partly offsetting the effect of higher corn prices on corn sweeteners. In the calculation of byproduct credits, it is assumed that 1 bushel of corn weighs 56 pounds and produces 1.55 pounds of crude corn oil, 13.5 pounds of corn gluten feed, 2.65 pounds of corn gluten meal, and 33.33 pounds of corn sweetener, dry weight. Table 33 provides net cost of corn starch data through May 1997. Net corn sweetener costs averaged 4.17 cents a pound for January-March 1997, down from 6.15 cents for the same period the year before. Net corn costs peaked at 8.89 cents a pound for the April-June 1996 quarter, compared with a long-run average of between 2 and 4 cents a pound. In the past year the high corn prices, and corresponding high net corn costs have not been passed forward by HFCS producers due to the increased capacity and stiff competition for sales. The price series for the list prices of HFCS-42 and HFCS-55 are being discontinued as of December 1995 due to lack of reliable information. The Economic Research Service (ERS) will now publish the Midwest spot price for HFCS-42, which averaged 10.56 cents a pound dry basis for February through May 1997, down almost 4 cents from the price which prevailed from January through December 1996. In 1995, the spot HFCS-42 price had averaged 15.50 cents a pound, dry basis. List of Tables World Sugar Page 1. World sugar supply and use, stocks-to-consumption ratio, and world price 2. World sugar trade, by leading sugar exporters and importers 3. Sugarbeet area, yield, and production for selected countries and world 4. Sugarcane area, yield, and production for selected countries and world 5. World sugar production, supply, and distribution by selected countries World and U.S. Sugar and Corn Sweetener Prices 6. World refined sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 7. World raw sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 8. U.S. raw sugar price, duty fee paid, New York, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 9. U.S. wholesale refined beet sugar price, Midwest markets, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 10. U.S. retail refined sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 11. U.S. wholesale list price for HFCS-55, Midwest markets, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 12. U.S. wholesale list price for HFCS-42, Midwest markets, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 13. U.S. spot price for HFCS-42, Midwest markets, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 14. U.S. wholesale list price for glucose syrup, Midwest markets, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 15. U.S. wholesale list price for dextrose, Midwest markets, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 16. U.S. Consumer Price Index for sugar and selected sweetener-containing products 17. U.S. Producer Price Index for HFCS and sugar, monthly U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 18. U.S. sugarbeet crops: Area planted by State and region, 1990-97 19. U.S. sugarbeet area, yield, and production, 1985-97 20. U.S. sugar: Area, yield, production, output, recovery rate, and sugar yield per acre, crop years 1992/93--1997/98 21. U.S. production of beet sugar and cane sugar by State, monthly, quarterly, fiscal, calendar, and crop year 22. U.S. cane and beet sugar deliveries, monthly, quarterly, and by fiscal and calendar year 23. U.S. sugar deliveries for human consumption by type of user, quarterly and calendar year 24. U.S. sugar imports under tariff-rate quota (TRQ), by country 25. U.S. tariff-rate quota (TRQ) allocations, EU quota allocations, and sugar surplus in various countries 26. U.S. sugar stocks held by primary distributors, by quarters 27. U.S. sugar (including Puerto Rico) supply and use, fiscal year 28. U.S. sugar (including Puerto Rico) supply and use, calendar year 29. Monthly estimates of fiscal 1997 U.S. sugar supply and use U.S. Corn Sweetener Supply, Use, and Trade 30. U.S. wet-milled use of field corn, crop year 31. U.S. high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production, quarterly, fiscal, and calendar year 32. U.S. high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) supply and use, calendar year 33. Net cost of corn starch to U.S. wet-millers, Midwest markets 34. U.S. corn sweetener exports to Mexico and Canada, fiscal years 1991-96 and first half fiscal 1997 35. U.S. corn sweetener imports from Mexico and Canada, fiscal years 1991-96 and first half fiscal 1997 U.S. Consumption of Caloric Sweeteners 36. U.S. (including Puerto Rico) total consumption of caloric sweeteners, calendar year 37. U.S. (including Puerto Rico) per capita consumption of caloric sweeteners, calendar year Internet and Autofax Access to Data Internet Main Data Directory: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/cgi-usda/agency.cgi?ers#s ERS Homepage http://www.econ.ag.gov USDA Homepage http://www.usda.gov/ ERS Sugar & Sweetener Situation and Outlook Reports (including text of Yearbook): http://www.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/specialty/sss-bb/ Sugar Yearbook Data (December 1996) http://www.mannlib.cornell.edu/data-sets/specialty/89019 U.S. Corn Sweetener Statistical Compendium (1993) http://www.mannlib.cornell.edu/data-sets/specialty/ Farm Sector Cost of Production (including sugarbeets and sugar cane 1992-95, and processing costs): http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/fbe/car/beets3.htm http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/fbe/car/cane3.htm http://www.mannlib.cornell.edu/data-sets/farm/94010/ Foreign Ag Service, World Ag Production: http://ffas.usda.gov/fasprograms/fas-commodity/circular/wap1.html World Agricultural Outlook Board http://www.usda.gov/agency/oce/waob/waob.htm February 1997 Outlook Forum, includes baseline table and speech (by Bob Barry & Ron Lord): http://www.mannlib.cornell.edu/data-sets/farm/94005/ http://www.econ.ag.gov/Briefing/baseline/gopher://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu:70/00/reports/waobr/aof/aof97/bbarry.asc WASDE Report http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm NASS: http://www.usda.gov/nass/ WAOB, USDA Outlook Conference Papers gopher://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu:70/11/reports/waobr/aof/aof97 Sweetener Market Data, FSA (Farm Service Agency) http://www.fsa.usda.gov/pas/sugar/coversu.htm FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service) Report from Foreign Countries (including sugar reports): http://ffas.usda.gov/cgi-bin/attache-extreq Molasses Market News, AMS (Agricultural Market Service, USDA): http://www.ams.usda.gov/mncs/lsg/ls-othr.htm Autofax From your fax machine, call (202) 219-1107 (ERS AutoFax System) and listen to voice prompts to have the following documents automatically downloaded to your fax machine: Doc ID #: 12600- Updated list of all sugar and sweetener documents available on ERS AutoFax 12626- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Sugar 12627- Monthly U.S. Sugar Prices: Wholesale refined beet sugar price, Midwest market, 1960-present: U.S. raw sugar price, duty-fee paid New York, 1960-present: U.S. retail refined sugar price, 1975-present. 12628- Monthly HFCS Prices: Wholesale list price for HFCS-42, Midwest market, 1975-present; Wholesale spot price for HFCS-42, Midwest market, 1995-present; Wholesale list price for HFCS-55, Midwest market, 1981-present; Wholesale list price for glucose corn syrup, Midwest market, 1975-present; Wholesale list price for dextrose, Midwest market, 1975-present; U.S. Producer Price Index for HFCS and sugar, 1985-present. 12629- Monthly World Sugar Prices: World raw sugar price, 1960-present; world refined sugar price, 1980-present. 12630- U.S. and world sugar prices, starting 1990-present, monthly. 12631- Net cost of corn starch to U.S. wet-millers, Midwest markets, 1985-1995 annual, 1992-1996 monthly. 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