SUGAR AND SWEETENERS YEARBOOK -- SUMMARY December 18,1997 December 1997, SSS-222 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published annually by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of SUGAR AND SWEETENERS will be available 1-2 weeks following this summary release. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 U.S. Sugar Production Near Record U.S. sugar production in 1997/98 (October 1997-September 1998) is projected at 7.86 million short tons, raw value, up 9 percent from 7.2 million tons in 1996/97. If realized, this would be only 1 percent below the record U.S. sugar production of 1994/95. Beet sugar production is forecast at 4.4 million tons, raw value, representing 56 percent of total expected sugar production and up 10 percent from last year. The beet sugar production forecast is 100,000 tons above the September forecast based on better-than-expected beet production and higher sugar content. Beet acreage harvested is 1.43 million acres, 107,000 acres above last year, and on par with 1992/93 through 1995/96. Beet acreage was up in all major growing states. The increase in acreage was due in part to higher sugarbeet prices and lower prices of competing crops. The season average price for sugarbeets in 1996/97 was $43.90 per ton, up $5.80 per ton (15 percent) from the year before. Cane sugar production is forecast at 3.46 million tons, raw value, up 265,000 tons from last year. Louisiana is forecast to produce 1.25 million tons, which would be up 200,000 tons from last year. Louisiana's forecast of acreage harvested is a record 375,000 acres, up 12 percent, and sugarcane yield is forecast at 29 tons per acre, 4 percent above last year, the previous record. The implied yield of 3.3 tons of sugar per acre would exceed last year's record by 6 percent. A new variety is contributing to higher per-acre cane yields. The crop was about 68 percent harvested by the end of November. Weather had been excellent in October and early November, but rains in late November hampered the harvest and increased trash and mud entering the mills. Most mills will finish by the end of the year, with a few likely to operate into early January. Florida's sugar production is forecast at 1.75 million tons, up 71,000 tons from last year. The forecast sugarcane yield is 34 tons per acre, from 419,000 acres harvested for sugar, resulting in 14.2 million tons of cane, up 3.2 percent from last year. The implied recovery rate, 12.28 percent, would be 10 percent above last year and the 5-year average. Florida's season runs from October through March or early April, with January-March production averaging 57 percent of the total. U.S. sugar consumption, measured by deliveries, for 1997/98 is forecast at 9.95 million tons, up 1.85 percent or 181,000 tons from the revised estimate for 1996/97. Consumption has been increasing 160,000 tons, or about 1.9 percent, per year since 1985/86. Among industrial users, 1996/97 sugar use by the baking, cereal, and allied products category grew 9 percent, to 2.1 million tons, while sugar used in beverages fell 12 percent, to 169,000 tons. The raw cane sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for 1997/98 was set at 1.8 million metric tons, raw value, with an initial allocation of 1.2 million. The refined sugar TRQ was set at 50,000 tons, raw value, with 25,000 allocated to Mexico under North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provisions. In short tons, imports under the TRQ are forecast at 1.96 million, including a forecast shortfall of 50,000. Other forecast imports include 300,000 tons for re-export programs; 10,000 for polyhydric alcohol; 50,000 under tariff code 1702.90.40.00; and 5,000 of high-tariff sugar. U.S. sugar stocks at the end of 1997/98 (September 30, 1998) are forecast at 1.52 million short tons, up slightly from 1996/97. Stocks reflect a projected total supply of 11.67 million tons and total use of 10.15 million. U.S. raw sugar prices (New York No.14 contract) averaged 21.90 cents per pound in November, compared with 22.12 cents in November 1996, and 22.27 cents in October 1997. Refined beet sugar list prices in October-December averaged about 25 cents per pound, compared with 29.00 cents a year ago. High fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production in 1997 is forecast at 8.6 million short tons, dry basis, up 5.3 percent from 1996. The HFCS-42 spot price has been about 10.5 cents per pound, dry basis, for most of 1997, down about 28 percent from 14.5 cents in 1996. The HFCS industry expanded capacity significantly between 1995 and 1997, putting downward pressure on prices. U.S. HFCS consumption has grown at 4 to 5 percent a year, below the rate of capacity growth. U.S. exports of HFCS to Mexico continue to grow despite increased tariffs in 1996 and the imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties earlier this year. Printed copies of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook Yearbook will be available in about a week. For more information, contact Jackie Salsgiver 202-694-5258. This issue contains two special articles, "Sweetener Flows in the North American Region," and "Cuba's Sugar Industry: An Update." The text of the report will also be available electronically, for details call 202-694-5050. END_OF_FILE