SUGAR AND SWEETENERS -- SUMMARY September 21, 1999 September 1999, ERS-SSS-226 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Record Sugar Production Forecast for FY 2000 U.S. sugar supplies, minus imports under the raw and refined tariff-rate quota (TRQ), are projected for fiscal year (FY) 2000 at 10.9 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Record high production of 8.9 million tons from sugarbeets and sugarcane add to 1.5 million tons of carryin stocks and 500,000 tons of expected imports of non-TRQ sugar. Compared with non-TRQ supplies in FY 1999, the FY 2000 total is 3.1 percent higher, while combined consumption and exports are projected up 1.2 percent. The TRQ for FY 2000 has not been announced. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is currently forecasting FY 2000 sugarbeet acreage planted at 1.560 million acres, more than 62,000 acres, or 4.16 percent larger than the previous year. Acreage harvested is forecast at 1.526 million acres, for an increase of slightly less than 74,000 acres, or 5.1 percent above the previous year. NASS forecasts record sugarbeet production at 33.629 million tons, 3.1 percent higher than the previous year's record crop. The national average yield is forecast at 22.0 tons per acre, about half a ton lower than last year's yield. Beet sugar production is currently projected at 4.67 million short tons, raw value (STRV), which, if realized, would be a record. Current crop conditions, along with continuing technological improvements, imply a sugar yield of 3.06 tons per acre. NASS forecasts Florida sugarcane acreage harvested for sugar and seed at 456,000 acres, up 9,000 acres. Assuming about 20,000 of those acres are for seed use and based on the NASS yield forecast of 39.0 tons per acre, sugarcane for sugar production is projected at about 17.0 million tons, slightly less than FY 1999. Florida sugar production is projected at 2.125 million STRV. NASS forecasts FY 2000 Louisiana sugarcane acreage harvested for sugar and seed at 465,000 acres, up 30,000 acres over last year. Sugarcane for sugar is projected to comprise 95 percent of all Louisiana sugarcane acreage, or 442,000 acres, producing a record 14.578 million tons of sugarcane for milling. Trend technological improvements and the currently forecasted sugarcane yield imply a record sugar per acre yield of 3.66 tons, implying sugar production at 1.615 million STRV. Texas cane sugar production is expected to be 100,000 STRV, and Hawaii is projected at 360,000 STRV. Total deliveries for FY 2000 are projected at 10.250 million STRV, a 1.7-percent increase over the previous year. Total deliveries include sugar for the Sugar Containing Products Re-export Program (175,000 STRV), for use in the Polyhydric Alcohol Program (15,000), for feed use (7,000), and for human consumption (10.053 million). High-tier tariff imports from Mexico are projected at 125,000 STRV. USDA revised its projection of sugar syrup imports under HTS 1702.90.4000 from a sugar equivalent of 100,000 to 10,000 STRV after the U.S. Customs Service reclassified the product. Raw sugar imports for the Refined Sugar Re-export Program are projected at 175,000 STRV for FY 2000. Imports for the Sugar Containing Products Re-export Program are also projected at 175,000 STRV, and for the Polyhydric Alcohol Program at 15,000 STRV. Beet sugar production for FY 1999 is estimated at 4.375 million STRV. The 1998 sugarbeet crop was 32.606 million tons. Acreage harvested was 1.452 million acres, and yield averaged 22.5 tons per acre. Sugarbeet yield and production are record highs. Cane sugar production is estimated at 3.954 million STRV, with production records in both Florida and Louisiana. Raw and refined TRQ imports for FY 1999 are estimated at 1.247 million STRV. All three raw sugar TRQ tranche allocations were canceled this year. Other imports are estimated at 560,000 STRV. High-tier tariff imports from Mexico are estimated at 70,000 STRV. Raw sugar imports for the Refined Sugar Re-export Program are estimated at 200,000 STRV, for the Sugar Containing Products Re-export Program at 175,000 STRV, and for the Polyhydric Alcohol Program at 15,000 STRV. Sugar syrup entering under HTS 1702.90.4000 is estimated at 100,000 STRV of sugar. Estimated total supply for FY 1999, at 11.815 million STRV, represents 1.679 million in beginning stocks, 8.329 million from production, and 1.807 million of raw and refined sugar imports. Refined sugar exports are estimated at 225,000 STRV and total deliveries at 10.075 million STRV. Total use is the sum of exports and deliveries, or 10.3 million STRV. Ending stocks, at 1.515 million tons, are 14.7 percent of total use. Printed copies of the Sugar and Sweeteners Situation and Outlook report will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information, contact Stephen Haley 202-694-5247. This report will contain a special article "Stocks-to-Use Ratios and Sugar Pricing Relationships: Implications for U.S. Sugar Policy." The text of the report will also be available electronically via the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. END_OF_FILE