SUGAR AND SWEETENERS -- SUMMARY January 20, 2000 January 2000, ERS-SSS-227 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Record High U.S. Sugar Production Forecast for 2000 Beet sugar production for fiscal year (FY) 2000 is projected at a record 4.725 million short tons, raw value (STRV). The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts the sugarbeet crop at 33.319 million tons. Acreage harvested is forecast at 1.527 million acres, and yield is forecast at 21.8 tons per acre. Both sugarbeet acreage harvested and production, if realized, would represent records. Although yield is projected at less than last year's record, generally good growing and harvesting conditions permitted a clean crop, with beets having higher sugar content than last year. Cane sugar production for FY 2000 is projected at a record 4.025 million STRV. NASS forecasts the U.S. sugarcane for sugar crop at 33.923 million tons. Acreage harvested is forecast at 939,000 acres, and yield is forecast at 36.1 tons per acre. Both sugarcane acreage harvested and production, if realized, would represent records. The raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) was announced on November 2, 1999, and was set at 1,501,348 STRV. Of this total, 1,251,123 STRV were made available to the office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) for allocation. The remainder is held in reserve, and will be made available to the USTR for allocation at the discretion of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The raw sugar TRQ shortfall is expected to be about 65,000 STRV. Along with the refined sugar TRQ that was announced on October 1, 1999, the expected level of the sugar TRQ is projected at 1.225 million STRV. Non-TRQ imports are currently projected at 570,000 STRV. USDA projects raw sugar imports for the Refined Sugar Re-export Program at 250,000 STRV, for the Sugar Containing Products Re-export Program at 175,000 STRV, and for the Polyhydric Alcohol Program at 15,000 STRV. Given the narrowing of the margin between U.S. and world raw sugar prices, USDA projects that only 5,000 STRV of high-tier tariff sugar (HTS) will enter the United States this fiscal year. After the Court of International Trade in New York revoked the U.S. Customs Service's reclassification of sugar syrups and thereby returned them to their low-duty status under HTS 17029040, the USDA raised its projection of sugar extracted from the syrups and entering U.S. marketing channels to 125,000 STRV. Deliveries for FY 2000 are projected at 10.250 million STRV. This total is the summation of the following individual components: 10.053 million STRV for domestic food and beverage use; 175,000 STRV for the Sugar Containing Products Re-export Program; 15,000 STRV for the Polyhydric Alcohol Program; and 7,000 STRV for feed use. Ending stocks for FY 2000 are projected at 1.684 million STRV. The projected ending stocks-to-use ratio is 16.0 percent, about the same level as the ratio for FY 1999. The combined production of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) for 1999 is forecast at 9.417 million short tons, dry weight, representing growth of only 2.86 percent over the previous year. The distribution of growth among the components of the HFCS complex has been unusual in that HFCS-55 growth has been much lower than HFCS-42. The growth of HFCS-55 in 1999 over the total for 1998 is forecast at 47,000 tons, or 0.8 percent higher. The growth of HFCS-42 production in 1999 over the total for 1998 is forecast at 220,000 tons, or 6.67 percent higher. USDA forecasts Mexican 1999/2000 sugar production at 5.200 million metric tons, raw value (MTRV). An additional 10,000 hectares have been planted, and improved weather conditions are expected to lift cane yields to about 72.2 tons per hectare. The sugarcane crop is forecast at 45.5 million tons, an expected increase of 1.91 million tons over 1998/99. The sugar recovery rate is forecast at 11.4 percent, about the same level as the previous year. USDA forecasts sugar consumption for 1999/2000 at 4.4 million MTRV, the same as estimated for 1998/99, and forecasts sugar exports at 900,000 MTRV. Ending stocks for 1999/2000 are forecast at 744,000 MTRV. Printed copies of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook report will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information, contact Stephen Haley 202-694-5247. This report will contain a special article "Conceptual Overview of the U.S. Sugar Baseline: Incorporating the Effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement." The text of the report will also be available electronically via the ERS website at www.econ.ag.gov. END_OF_FILE