SUGAR AND SWEETENERS YEARBOOK -- SUMMARY May 24, 2001 May 2001, ERS-SSS-231 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- USDA Projects Flat Sugar Production in Fiscal Year 2002 The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects sugar production for fiscal year (FY) 2002 at 8.435 short tons, raw value (STRV), a slight decrease of 64,000 STRV from the total estimated for FY 2001. Cane sugar production for FY 2002 is projected at 4.185 million STRV. Area harvested is not expected to change very much from FY 2001. Florida sugar production for FY 2002 is projected at 2.060 million STRV. Based on a projected sugarcane yield of about 37.25 tons per acre and trend growth in productivity, the expected value of the sugar yield is 4.72 tons per acre. Louisiana sugar production for FY 2002 is projected at 1.675 million STRV. Increased adaption of high yielding cane varieties and a return of more favorable growing weather imply an expected value of sugar yield of 3.61 tons per acre. Texas sugar production for FY 2002 is projected at 165,000 STRV, down from a year earlier due to anticipated lower yields. Hawaiian sugar production for FY 2002 is projected at 270,000 STRV, predicated on improved yields in Maui and Kauai. Puerto Rican production is projected to equal 15,000 STRV. Beet sugar production for FY 2002 is projected at 4.25 million STRV. The USDAs Interagency Commodity Sugar Estimates Committee for sugar projects sugarbeet area harvested at 1.36 million acres. USDA will release the forecast for area harvested in June. Because the refined and raw sugar tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) have not yet been announced by the USDA, they are not projected at this time. Sugar imports outside the sugar TRQ for FY 2002 are projected to total 390,000 STRV. This amount includes an expected 265,000 STRV under USDA Re-export Programs and the Polyhydric Alcohol Program. The USDA projects sugar supply extracted from sugar syrups imported under HTS 17029040 at 100,000 STRV and high-tier tariff sugar imports at 25,000 STRV. Sugar exports are projected at 125,000 STRV, the same as the current fiscal year. After netting out deliveries made for the Sugar-Containing Products and Polyhydric Alcohol Programs, along with deliveries for livestock feeding (20,000 STRV), domestic food and beverage deliveries are projected at 10.320 million. Projected growth is only 95,000 STRV or 0.9 percent. The U.S. Embassys Office of Foreign Agricultural Affairs in Mexico City forecasts Mexican sugar production for 2001/02 at 5.050 million metric tons, raw value (MTRV). Area harvested for sugarcane is projected at 630,000 hectares, and sugarcane production is projected at 44.0 million metric tons. Harvested area is forecast slightly above the 2000/01 level, and good weather conditions should improve yields over the previous year. Sugar consumption for 2001/02 is projected at 4.535 million MTRV, which is 53,000 MTRV higher than the level estimated for 2000/01. Production and consumption of HFCS in 2001/02 are likely to be levels close to those for the previous year. U.S. cane sugar production for FY 2001 is estimated at 4.079 million STRV, only slightly above the estimated total for FY 2000. Production increases in Florida and Texas are offset by declines in Louisiana and Hawaii. Beet sugar production for FY 2001 is estimated at 4.420 million STRV, based on sugar recovery significantly below that achieved last year. TRQ sugar imports for FY 2001 are estimated at 1.245 million STRV. As of May 3, 2001, sugar imports under the TRQ have amounted to 674,815 STRV, or about 51 percent of the amount estimated to enter for FY 2001. Sugar imports outside the sugar TRQ for FY 2001 are estimated to total 453,000 STRV, including 330,000 STRV under the combined Refined Sugar Re-export Program, the Sugar-Containing Products Program, and the Polyhydric Alcohol Program. Based on the pace to date, the USDA estimates sugar supply extracted from sugar syrups imported under HTS 17029040 at 100,000 STRV. High-tier tariff sugar imports for FY 2001 are estimated at 8,000 STRV. Total deliveries for FY 2001 are estimated at 10.345 million STRV. After netting out deliveries made for the Sugar-Containing Products and Polyhydric Alcohol Programs, along with deliveries for livestock feeding (20,000 STRV), domestic food and beverage deliveries are estimated at 10.225 million. Sugar exports occurring under the Refined Sugar Re-export Program are estimated at 125,000 STRV. Ending stocks are estimated at 1.946 million STRV, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 18.6 percent. Of the total, the Commodity Credit Corporation owns 793,205 STRV. The ratio of privately held ending stocks-to-use is estimated at 11.8 percent. Printed copies of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook Yearbook will be available in about 3 weeks. This issue contains a special article 'Assessing Economic Impacts of Liberalizing WTO Sugar Tariff-rates and Minimum Access Commitments by the United States.' For further information, contact Stephen Haley, (202) 694-5247. The full report will also be available on the ERS web site at www.ers.usda.gov. END_OF_FILE