TOBACCO YEARBOOK -- SUMMARY                            December 7, 2000
December 2000, ERS-TBS-248
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the report 
will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary
release.
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Flue-Cured Tobacco Sales Down 100 Million Pounds

Flue-cured tobacco markets closed on November 2 after 53 
marketing days. Final gross volume totaled 574.7 million 
pounds compared with 711.7 million pounds in 1999. Prices 
were 179.0 cents per pound compared with 173.6 in 1999. Loan 
takings were 27.2 million pounds, dramatically lower than 
last season's 136.4 million pounds. A nearly ideal growing 
season in most areas led to one of the better quality crops 
in recent years, with only the Type 14 (Georgia-Florida) 
area undergoing drought conditions early. Both total volume 
and value were down from 1999 due to the 18-percent decrease 
in the effective quota. Producers' sales at auction for 2000 
totaled 513.8 million pounds, representing 92 percent of the 
effective quota or 82 percent of the estimated crop of 623.9 
million pounds.

Burley sales opened November 20, 2000. Through December 4, 
sales totaled 120.3 million pounds, 115 million pounds less 
than the same number of days last season. Prices are higher 
than last season, and offerings are of higher quality. 
During the same period, the average price was about 6.3 
cents a pound greater than last season.

As of November 1, tobacco acreage for the 2000 marketing 
year was estimated to have declined 24 percent from 1999 to 
492,300 acres. Yields improved, reaching 2,289 pounds per 
acre for all types of tobacco, compared with the below-
2,000-pound yield of 1999, the lowest in over 15 years, 
mostly due to flooding in flue-cured areas and poor weather 
in the burley belt. This season, weather conditions were 
much improved throughout most tobacco-growing areas, 
although blue mold diminished production of some cigar 
types. Production in 2000 is estimated at 1,127 million 
pounds, about 160 million pounds below last season.

Ninety-four percent of U.S. leaf produced were types used 
for cigarettes. Cigar leaf, also used for other products 
such as chewing and smoking tobacco, accounted for 1 percent 
of production. Other types, mostly dark air- and fire-cured 
leaf, accounted for 5 percent of production.      

Tobacco production in 2001 will likely be near the 2000 
level. The 2001 projection assumes increased basic quotas 
offset by lower carryover tobacco, leading to effective 
quotas close to year-earlier levels.

Unmanufactured tobacco exports were down 6 percent from 
January to September 2000. Shipments were 308 million pounds 
compared with 328 million pounds during the same period in 
1999. The value of unmanufactured shipments was lower also. 
Calendar year exports are projected down slightly for the 
entire calendar year. Global supplies are more in line with 
demand, which would tend to enhance U.S. export prospects, 
but higher prices for U.S. leaf continue to erode demand. 
Total 2000 exports will probably be near 390 million pounds, 
compared with last year's 418 million pounds. For calendar 
year 2000, U.S. leaf exports are expected to end the year 
below 1999, as U.S. leaf continues to lose ground to more 
competitively-priced foreign tobaccos. During the July-
September period, exports increased 12 percent in volume, 
and 12 percent in value.

Unmanufactured tobacco imports (for consumption) from 
January to September 2000 are virtually level with the same 
period in 1999, at 380 million pounds. Overall, cigarette 
leaf imports slipped while cigarette scrap gained slightly. 
Imports of Oriental leaf edged up to 93 million pounds. Both 
unstemmed and stemmed flue-cured leaf imports declined 
compared with last year, while burley leaf imports rose from 
73 million pounds last year to 91 million pounds for the 9-
month period this year. Cigar filler and scrap import 
quantities gained while wrapper slipped. Stem imports 
declined. 

U.S. cigarette output continued its slide in 1999. With 
year-end production figures in, output is 73 billion pieces 
below 1998. Taxable removals fell 28 billion pieces to 430 
billion, while tax-exempt removals were down nearly 50 
million pieces to 150 million. Both domestic consumption and 
exports declined. Exports plummeted 50 billion pieces, while 
imports gained 3 billion pieces. Consumption in 1999 was 435 
billion pieces, 6 percent below the previous year. 
Unprecedented price hikes in late 1998 and early 1999 
slashed consumer demand. However, the decline in consumption 
was not as great as originally expected. Preliminary data 
suggest consumption in 2000 will fall, but the decline will 
be less than 1999's.
 
Printed copies of the Tobacco Situation and Outlook will be 
available in about two weeks. For more information, contact 
Tom Capehart  (202) 694-5311. The text of the full report 
will also be available electronically via the ERS website at 
www.ers.usda.gov.


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