TOBACCO YEARBOOK -- SUMMARY                    December 18, 2002 
December 2002, ERS-TBS-2002. Approved by the World Agricultural 
Outlook Board

This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. 
Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The 
complete report will be available electronically about 1 week 
following this summary release.

December 18, 2002

Flue-Cured Sales Up 20 Million Pounds in 2002

Flue-cured tobacco markets closed on November 22nd. The 2002 crop 
was marred by drought over wide areas of the belt and disease in 
Georgia, Florida, and the northern area. Producer sales totaled 
564.8 million pounds, representing 97 percent of the 2002 
effective quota and included an estimated 104.5 million pounds of 
carryover tobacco from 2001 production. Producer sales at auction 
totaled 115.2 million pounds and contract sales totaled 446.1 
million pounds. Gross auction sales totaled 119.9 million pounds, 
and averaged $175.72 per hundredweight (cwt) compared with 
$182.46 the previous season. Contract center sales averaged 
$184.33 per cwt, down $2.38 from the previous season. Total flue-
cured gross sales for the season reached 566.1 million pounds and 
returned an average of $182.50 per cwt. Last season, gross sales 
of 554.6 million pounds averaged $185.84 per cwt. 

The 2002-2003 burley tobacco marketing season began Monday, 
November 11th as contract centers began accepting deliveries. 
Burley auction sales opened November 18th. Grade averages for the 
first week were higher than last season from the start, although 
loan receipts were higher also. After 5 weeks, burley sales 
(contract and auction) totaled 174.2 million pounds, compared 
with 152.3 million pounds at the same timelast season. As of 
October 1st, the burley crop is estimated at 304.6 million pounds, 
9 percent below last season’s 334 million pounds.

As of October 1, total tobacco acreage for the 2002 marketing 
year was estimated to have declined 4 percent from 2001 to 
434,310 acres. Yields slipped, reaching 2,040 pounds per acre for 
all types of tobacco, compared with 2,293 in 2001. Dry weather 
and disease reduced yields in many tobacco-growing areas. 
Production of all types is estimated at 886.0 million pounds, 
about 105 million pounds below last season.

Based on October 1 estimates, 94 percent of U.S. leaf produced 
were types used for cigarettes, up slightly from last season. 
Cigar leaf, also used for other products such as chewing and 
smoking tobacco, accounted for 2 percent of production. Other 
types, mostly dark air- and fire-cured leaf, accounted for 4 
percent of production. 

The 2003/04 flue-cured marketing quota was announced on December 
16, 2002. The burley marketing quota is to be announced by 
February 1, 2003, and acreage allotments for other types of 
tobacco under quotas are to be announced by March 1, 2003. 

Unmanufactured tobacco exports were down 17 percent during the 
January-September 2002 period, compared with last year. Shipments 
were 243 million pounds compared with 294 million pounds during 
the same period in 2001. Value declined 13 percent as export unit 
values increased slightly. Flue-cured shipments fell 15 percent 
and burley slipped 4 percent. All other categories fell at least 
15 percent. Calendar year exports are projected down at least 15 
percent by year end. Higher U.S. leaf prices continue to erode 
foreign demand. Total 2002 exports will probably be near 360 
million pounds, compared with last year's 411 million pounds.

Unmanufactured tobacco imports (consumption) for January-
September 2002 surged 23 percent compared with the same period in 
2001, reaching 458 million pounds. Last year, imports slipped 
slightly during the same period. General imports gained 8 percent 
during January-September 2002, reaching 442 million pounds, 
compared with 408 million pounds last year. Stocks of imported 
cigarette leaf were nearly unchanged on October 1, 2002, compared 
with a year earlier at 763 million pounds.

U.S. cigarette output in 2001 is expected to change little from 
the previous year at about 580 billion cigarettes. Domestic 
consumption is expected to fall just over 1 percent to 420 
billion cigarettes. During the first 9 months of 2002, 96.3 
billion cigarettes were exported. If this trend continues during 
the fourth quarter, cigarette exports could be near 110 billion 
for calendar 2002, the lowest since the mid-1980s. During 
January-September, cigarette imports advanced to 15.0 billion 
pieces compared with 9.9 billion last year.