TOBACCO September 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOBACCO Situation and Outlook is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. TBS-236. Please note that this release contains only the text of TOBACCO-- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #TBS, $19/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contents Summary Tobacco Products U.S. Exports and Imports U.S. Tobacco Leaf Situation and Outlook Flue-Cured Burley Southern Maryland Fire-Cured Dark Air-Cured Cigar Tobacco Statistical Summary List of Tables Summary On September 1, prior to Hurricane Fran, U.S. tobacco production was forecast up 25 percent from the previous season because of higher acreage and increased yields. The effect of Hurricane Fran has yet to be determined, but flue-cured harvesting and curing were disrupted. Initial reports indicate that in some areas of the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, South Carolina, and parts of Virginia, damage to unharvested tobacco in the field was total. Furthermore, extensive power outages caused spoilage of tobacco in the curing barns after the storm passed. Marketings in 1996/97 would likely have increased 9 percent if not for the hurricane. The total U.S.-grown tobacco supply for 1996/97 will likely decline. Carryin stocks (July 1 for flue-cured and cigar wrapper types, October 1 for all other types) are likely to decline 5 percent from a year earlier, but considering hurricane damage, gains in production may not offset the carryin reduction. Total stocks of imported leaf advanced 7 percent to 1.12 billion pounds on July 1, 1996, compared with July 1, 1995. Prior to Hurricane Fran, flue-cured tobacco output was expected to gain 20 percent. However, marketings are expected to decline despite higher quotas because of the hurricane. Auction prices are approaching those of 1995, and the season average will likely be above a year earlier. Less farm carryover tobacco being marketed meant a greater proportion of lower priced, lower stalk tobacco being marketed early in the season. U.S.-grown leaf use declined about 6 percent in 1995/96 from 1994/95’s 1.63 billion pounds. U.S.-grown leaf use may increase in 1996/97 as demand for cigarette production is strong. The proportion of foreign-grown leaf used in cigarette production is also expected to increase. The tariff rate quota (TRQ) has been in effect 1 year as of September 12, 1996. The TRQ covers flue-cured, burley, and certain other imported tobaccos. Oriental and cigar leaf are not covered by the TRQ. During the first year, the TRQ was 150,450 metric tons, about 330 million pounds, and was less constraining than the former domestic content provisions. Since the TRQ became effective, imports (arrivals) of tobacco leaf and stems have increased. U.S. leaf tobacco exports in 1995/96 increased 9 percent, reaching 472 million pounds, declared weight. Continued tight world supplies and U.S. leaf quality have benefited U.S. exports in spite of higher prices. In 1996, U.S. cigarette production is expected to increase to a record 760 billion pieces. Steady domestic consumption will be augmented by higher exports. Lower retail prices since 1993 have curbed the decline in cigarette consumption. Per capita consumption decreased slightly with steady consumption as population rose. Cigarette exports are expected to drive increasing production in the coming year. As of September 1, the 1996 flue-cured crop was estimated at 898 million pounds, up 20 percent from 1995. The effects of hurricane Fran on harvesting and curing are as yet undetermined. On-farm carryover this year was quite low and little 1995-crop tobacco was brought to market. Beginning stocks on July 1 were 1.17 billion pounds, only 1 percent lower than 1995. The total supply of U.S.-grown flue-cured was estimated at 2.06 billion pounds, up slightly from 1995, based on pre-hurricane conditions. Total use this season may do well to equal 1995/96’s 875 million pounds because of a potentially smaller supply. Flue-cured sales began July 23, 5 days later than last year. By September 12, growers had sold more than 50 percent of anticipated marketings, with only .4 percent going under loan. Sales through September 12 averaged $1.77 per pound, about the same as last year. Cash receipts are uncertain in 1996/97 because of the effect of the hurricane on marketings. This year’s burley crop is expected to be 36 percent above the 1995 crop due to higher yields and fewer production problems. Beginning stocks in 1996 are expected to be the lowest since 1992. Supplies in 1996/97 should be up due to larger production, in spite of lower beginning stocks. Larger crops are forecast for Maryland, dark fire-cured, and dark air-cured tobaccos; only cigar tobacco production is expected to decline. The national marketing quota for the 1997 flue-cured crop must be announced by December 15, 1996. Individual farm quotas and allotments will reflect undermarketings and overmarketings for the current crop. For burley, the marketing quota will be announced by February 1, 1997, and allotments for other types will be announced by March 1, 1997. Price supports for 1997 flue-cured and burley tobaccos will be based on a 5-year moving average of market prices and changes in costs of production. For other types, changes in support will continue to be based on the average of the parity index during the 3 previous years compared with 1959. Tobacco Products Cigarette Consumption Steady; Exports RiseU.S. cigarette consumption is expected to be steady in calendar 1996, remaining at 487 billion for the second year (table 1). Consumption fell to 485 billion in 1993, then rose to 486 billion in 1994. Although cigarette prices increased in May by $2.00 per thousand, prices are still below the peak reached in 1993, and consumption has increased slightly. A growing number of prohibitions and restrictions on where people can smoke, and continuing publicity about smoking and health has continued to dampen consumption. The share of discount brand cigarettes fell to 30 percent of the market during 1995, compared with 32.5 percent a year earlier. The proportion of low-tar and low-nicotine cigarettes was greater than in 1994 but was still lower than the record high reached in 1981. Per capita cigarette consumption during 1996 ( population 18 and over) is forecast at about 125 packs of 20 (2,500 cigarettes), down 1 percent from the previous year. Per capita consumption declined despite stable total consumption due to population changes. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates 30.5 percent of the population between 15 and 18 years of age have smoked cigarettes in the past month. Based on a population of 15 years of age and over, per capita U.S. cigarette consumption was 2,350 in1996. During the first 6 months of 1996, U.S. cigarette exports rose 8 percent (table 3). Compared with the same period last year, shipments to North and South America, Asia, and Europe rose, while those to Africa and Oceania declined. Shipments to the European Union declined sharply. Imports of U.S. cigarettes by Japan and Russia advanced. Cigarette exports during the last 6 months of 1996 are expected to continue increasing at about the same rate due to lower unit values. Retail prices for tobacco products gained 3 percent in July 1996 compared with July 1995. Cigarette price increases in May 1996 were the main factor in the change. In May 1996, wholesale prices for premium cigarettes rose by $2.00 per 1,000 cigarettes, a 3.5-percent increase (including tax). Wholesale premium cigarette prices are still 18 percent below mid-1993 levels. Washington’s cigarette tax rose another cent per pack in July as part of a tax increase package which initially boosted taxes from 54 cents per pack to 81.5 cents per pack in July 1995. At 82.5 cents per pack, Washington's cigarette taxes are the highest. Massachusetts raised its cigarette excise tax in 1996. The Legislature overrode the Governor’s veto to pass a 25-cent increase (from 51 to 76 cents per pack) and a 25-percent increase for other tobacco products. The tax is effective October 23, 1996 and earmarks funds for health care programs for children and seniors. President Authorizes Food and Drug Administration Regulations on Cigarette and Smokeless Tobacco Sales At a press conference on August 23, President Clinton authorized the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner to implement regulations aimed at restricting youths' access to tobacco products and reducing the appeal of tobacco products to young people. Key components of the FDA regulations are: o Vending machine and self-service displays are limited to areas accessible only to adults. o Free samples, and partial pack and individual sales are banned. o Billboards within 1,000 feet of schools and playgrounds are banned. o Format of billboards and outdoor and in-store advertising is limited to black-and-white text unless located in an adult-only area. o Advertising in publications with significant youth readership (greater than 15 percent of total or 2 million) limited to black-and-white text only. o Brand-name sponsorship of sporting or other events is prohibited. Corporate-name sponsorship is permissible. o Brand names on hats, T-shirts, gym bags, and other products are banned. The Administration faces tough legal challenges from the tobacco industry, advertising firms, and distributors and retailers. The five major tobacco firms filed suit in North Carolina Federal Court shortly after the regulations were initially announced last year, and those suits are still in progress. Litigation On August 23, an Indiana jury unanimously rejected a claim by the widow of a former smoker who died of lung cancer that cigarette companies were at fault for his death. Personal responsibility of the smoker was cited as a key element in the jury’s decision. The ruling came in the wake of an August 9 ruling by a Florida court’s award of $750,000 to a plaintiff, the second time damages have been awarded in such cases. The first award, in the Cipollone Case, was later overruled. Cigar Output and Consumption Increase U.S. large cigar and cigarillo output rose 500 million to an estimated 2,500 million in 1996. Cigar consumption, which includes imports, kept pace with a similar increase to 3,200 million cigars. Per capita consumption for males 18 years and over increased from 27.6 to 35 cigars, rising for the fourth consecutive year. Output of small cigars (weighing 3 pounds or less per 1,000 cigars) declined 2 percent during the first half of 1996. Small cigar output reached a high of 4.4 billion in 1973, declining to under 1 billion for 1 year, 1986, then advancing each year but one thereafter. Smoking Tobacco Consumption Down Output of smoking tobacco, used in pipes and roll-your-own cigarettes, is expected to fall by 500,000 pounds, continuing a decade-long decline in 1996. On a July-June basis, 1995/96 smoking tobacco consumption declined by a similar amount. Output for the 1995/96 period fell to 11.8 million pounds from 13.3 million pounds the previous year. Reversing an increase in 1995, chewing tobacco production is expected to decline 7 percent to 58.5 million pounds, a 3.4-million-pound drop. For the year ending June 30, 1996, output slid 3 percent. Snuff output is expected to increase for the ninth straight year. This year's increase will be slightly greater than the previous year at nearly 3 percent. Output in 1996 is expected to be 56.1 million pounds. Restrictions on where one can smoke continue to cause a shift to snuff. U.S. Exports and Imports U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco during 1995/96 (July-June) increased to 556 million pounds, (611 million pounds farm sales weight). The 6.5 percent increase is due largely to lower supplies in many exporting countries, increased consumption, and lower world stocks. July-June flue-cured shipments from the United States were nearly steady, while burley shipments advanced 9 percent. Export value for all unmanufactured tobacco reached $1.4 billion, 5 percent greater than 1994/95. The gain was due to higher quantity, as unit values declined slightly. Leaf exports in 1996/97 are expected to remain steady or increase slightly. Lower exports from Brazil due to increased cigarette production and stocks replenishment will benefit U.S. exports. Stocks in remaining consuming countries will continue to be low, encouraging imports. The continued shift to American blend cigarettes will have a positive effect on U.S. exports, especially burley, as flue-cured is already used in many other blends. World Cigarette Trade The United States is the world’s leading exporter of cigarettes and second in cigarette production only to China, which produces 30 percent of world output. Germany is the second largest exporter of cigarettes, at less than half U.S. levels. Major cigarette exporters generally saw increases in 1995, with the exception of Hong Kong and Singapore. Major markets for cigarettes, in declining order of importance, were Russia, Japan, Hong Kong, France, Italy, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. World cigarette production rose 2 percent in 1995, as output in China, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Indonesia advanced. Japan, a major market for U.S. leaf and cigarettes, saw a slight decline in consumption. Production fell 2 percent as well. The United States is by far the leading supplier of cigarettes to Japan, accounting for 96 percent of Japan's cigarette imports. Excluding China, world cigarette production gained 2 percent in 1995, about half the growth in 1994. Higher cigarette prices, taxes, increased health concerns, and antismoking legislation have dampened consumption in several countries during the last decade. Consumption is expected to fall in many developed countries during the remainder of the 1990’s. Leaf and Product Exports The value of U.S. tobacco leaf and product exports in 1995/96 (July-June) was $6.7 billion, $300 million lower than the previous year. Cigarette unit value declines accounted for the decrease. Higher volume and stable prices should boost exports in 1996/97. Fifteen weeks into the season, Zimbabwe auctions are marketing 5 percent more than during the first 15 weeks last year, and prices gained 40 percent. Quality is good. Malawi burley advanced 11 percent during the first 16 weeks of sales, and prices advanced 4 percent. Flue-cured sales in Malawi are smaller than last year. Tobacco Imports Advance After Implementation of TRQ U.S. unmanufactured tobacco imports for consumption totaled 593.8 million pounds, declared weight, during July 1995-June 1996. Imports totaled 435.6 million pounds during 1994/95. Stems almost doubled in quantity and cigarette tobacco gained 31 percent. Cigar leaf imports advanced 11 percent (tables 10 and 11). General imports (arrivals) in 1995/96 advanced 20 percent, after falling almost that much last year. Under the tariff rate quota (TRQ), demand for foreign-grown cigarette leaf has increased, and stocks have been somewhat replenished from the low levels of a year ago. Stocks of imported cigarette leaf totaled 1.02 billion pounds (farm sales weight) on July 1, 1996, 56 million pounds more than a year ago. U.S. cigar and cigarette manufacturers use imported leaf in their blends. For the year ending June 30, cigarettes and other products, and semiprocessed tobacco using cigarette leaf and stems, contained about 35 percent foreign tobacco, compared with about 34 percent a year earlier. U.S. cigarette leaf imports (during January-June) averaged $1.70 per pound, excluding ocean freight and duty. Even when duties apply, drawback provisions lower net import duties. Imported leaf content of cigars and loose leaf chewing totaled about 77 percent above a year earlier. The volume of leaf imports exceeded leaf exports for the fifth consecutive year. The United States is a major exporter of tobacco products. The value of leaf and product exports exceeded that of leaf and product imports by about $5.9 billion in 1995/96. U.S. Tobacco Leaf Outlook and Situation During the past marketing year (1995/96), about 65 percent of U.S.-grown tobacco leaf was used for domestic manufacture and 35 percent was exported. Disappearance of U.S. leaf fell 6 percent to 1.53 billion pounds. In 1996, effective marketing quotas are higher for flue-cured and burley, with a substantial increase for burley due to last year’s poor harvest. With increased acreage and yield, the September forecast for all tobacco is 1.58 billion pounds, 25 percent over last year. After Hurricane Fran, disappearance might exceed production, and stocks of domestically grown tobacco may fall. Efforts To Eliminate Unauthorized Pesticides Continue Pesticide use on U.S. tobacco has been restricted for many years. Furthermore, the Food Security Act of 1985 extended adherence standards. The act requires USDA to inspect both domestic and imported flue-cured and burley tobacco to determine if pesticide residues exceed established limits. Before selling their tobacco, growers must certify to the Farm Service Agency (FSA) that any pesticides used in production have been approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for use on tobacco and were applied in accordance with labeled directions. Growers lose price support if they falsify the certification, fail to certify, or refuse to provide samples for testing. Growers who are found filing a false report will be required to refund any price support advances received on the current crop. In addition, violators are subject to a $10,000 fine, 5 years imprisonment, or both. To ensure the integrity of U.S.-grown tobacco, efforts to eliminate unauthorized pesticides include 1) tests of samples taken from auction warehouse floors, 2) efforts to educate growers about nonapproved pesticides, and 3) intensified monitoring of pesticide use and penalties for misuse. USDA Announces Revised Tobacco Nesting Provision Under a final rule amending the tobacco program regulations, tobacco producers whose tobacco is found to have been nested at the time of delivery for a price support loan advance will forfeit the advance, whether the producer knew it was nested or not. Program provisions already preclude producers from price support eligibility for the entire crop year if the local FSA committee determines that their tobacco was knowingly nested. Nested tobacco is tobacco in a lot with a hidden nest of inferior tobacco or foreign material. Nesting results in higher loan advances because if the nested tobacco is inferior, the entire lot is a lower grade than the payment grade. If the nested tobacco increases the weight of the lot, then the price support is further increased. To curtail nesting, tobacco lots are randomly inspected by USDA graders. Violators making a false certification about nesting can be sentenced up to 1 year imprisonment, a $1,000 fine, or both. Farmers are required to certify that they have not nested their tobacco to be eligible for price support. Any pile of tobacco found to be nested cannot be sold on the day the nest is discovered. The nested pile must be taken from the auction sales floor and the nested material removed. The tobacco must be reviewed and reinspected before it can be offered for sale at a later date. Cigar Filler (type 46) Quotas Ended Referendum requirements, quotas, and price supports have ended for Puerto Rican cigar filler (type 46) tobacco. On March 26, 1996, a referendum held in Puerto Rico resulted in no votes cast. USDA has determined the March 26 referendum is a "no" vote. In addition, USDA will cease conducting triennial marketing quota referenda and announcing marketing quotas and price supports. On July 1, 1996, stocks of Puerto Rican filler were only 17,000 pounds, farm sales weight. U.S. Industry Buys 618 Million Pounds of 1995 Flue-cured Tobacco U.S. cigarette manufacturers purchased 617.5 million pounds (farm sales weight) of flue-cured tobacco during the July 1995-June 1996 marketing year, 154.2 million pounds more than the previous year. The purchase exceeded manufacturers purchase intentions of 569.9 million pounds by 8.4 percent. Legislation requires each major domestic cigarette manufacturer to purchase an amount equal to at least 90 percent of their stated purchase intentions to avoid the assessment of a penalty. Marketing Quota and Price Support in 1997 By December 15, USDA will announce the flue-cured poundage quota and matching acreage allotment for 1997. Individual farm quotas and acreage allotments for the next year will reflect this year's overmarketings and undermarketings. Marketings this year are expected to be less than this year’s effective quota (table 15). By February 1, 1997, USDA will announce the 1997 burley poundage quota , and by March 1, it will announce the 1997 acreage allotments for other kinds of tobacco. Growers of flue-cured, burley, fire-cured, dark air-cured, and Virginia sun-cured have approved marketing quotas applicable to the 1997 crops. The Puerto Rican cigar filler (type 46) quotas were ended after no votes were cast in a referendum held in Puerto Rico in March 1996. The quota law provides that flue-cured and burley quotas equal the sum of buying intentions of domestic cigarette manufacturers, the 3-year average of unmanufactured tobacco exports, and adjustments of loan association inventories needed to reach the reserve stock level. The Secretary of Agriculture may adjust this three-part total either up or down by a maximum of 3 percent. Support levels for 1996 average $1.601 per pound for flue-cured and $1.737 per pound for burley. Grade loan rates for flue-cured range from $1.06 to $1.92 per pound for flue-cured and $1.00 to $1.82 per pound for burley. Price supports for other kinds range from $1.12 per pound to $1.557 per pound compared with last year. For 1997, the flue-cured and burley price support will be the level for 1996 adjusted by changes in the 5-year moving average of prices (two-thirds weight) and changes in a cost-of-production index (one-third weight). Costs include general variable expenditures, but exclude costs of land, quota, risk, overhead, management, marketing contributions, and other costs not directly related to tobacco production. The Secretary of Agriculture can set the price support between 65 and 100 percent of the calculated increase or decrease. For other kinds, changes in price support will continue to be based on the average of the parity index during the 3 previous years compared with 1959. However, loan associations can request lower support levels if market conditions warrant. Data in table A-1, showing estimated flue-cured production costs for 1996, are expected to be used by FSA in determining the cost component for the 1997 support level. The combined effect of price and cost changes will likely result in little change in the flue-cured support level in 1997. Growers of Maryland, Pennsylvania filler, and Connecticut binder tobacco turned down marketing quotas in their last referenda (1995), so Government price support is not available for their 1996 crop. Pennsylvania filler has never had marketing quotas. For Maryland and Connecticut binder, quotas last applied to the 1983 crop. Shade-grown wrapper tobacco (type 61) is not covered by marketing quota legislation. Flue-cured The effects of Hurricane Fran, which occurred on Friday September 6, have not yet been completely evaluated. Through September 1, flue-cured yields were up from the previous year, in spite of some July hurricane damage in eastern North Carolina and a relatively cold spring. Quality varies through the belt. Florida and Georgia quality was better than last year, while quality in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia declined slightly from the previous year (prior to Hurricane Fran). After 30 sales days on September 12, prices averaged about the same as this point last season. Due to the greater proportion of lower stalk leaf relative to carryover tobacco compared with last year, this year's prices have lagged behind until recent weeks. Last year, season average prices rose 9.1 cents per pound, reaching the highest level since the 1984 crop. Prices were higher because of a good quality crop, higher price supports, and strong demand due to increasing cigarette production. Prices in 1996 are about the same as a year earlier. Early season prices were lower, and reduced carryover from the 1995 crop increased the proportion of lower stalk offerings. Season prices have rebounded as the market progressed, however, and will likely exceed last year's season average of $1.792 per pound, especially since Hurricane Fran reduced supplies. The 1996 marketing season began 5 days later than 1995. The Georgia-Florida and South Carolina and North Carolina border markets opened on July 23. Weekly sales were below sales opportunities (USDA sanctioned schedules) during the first few weeks of sales. By early September, harvesting was behind the usual pace. Prior to the hurricane, loan receipts were below last season. Increased cigarette production, higher smoking tobacco exports, and good quality tobacco have kept loan takings low. Reduced supplies because of the hurricane will minimize loan takings. Through September 12, auction prices averaged $1.77 per pound, similar to the average for the same number of sales days last season (table 14). By September 12, about 50 percent of the total expected marketings had been sold. Loan Receipts Below Last Season The price support for the 1996 flue-cured crop and 1995 carryover tobacco averages $1.601 per pound, .4 cent higher than last season. Through the 30th day of sales, gross purchases totaled 514 million pounds, 51 million pounds less than last year. Loan receipts through September 12 totaled only 1.8 million pounds, less than .5 percent of projected producer marketings. At this point last year, loan takings were .75 percent of marketings. To receive price support in 1996, flue-cured tobacco growers must: o Certify pesticide use and nesting. o Designate one or more warehouses within 100 miles of their county seat where they plan to sell their crop. o Contribute to a no-net-cost account and budget deficit marketing assessment totaling 1 cent for the producer and 1.8 cents for the purchaser for each pound of 1996-crop flue-cured tobacco that is marketed. Under quota legislation, growers receive price support on marketings up to 103 percent of their farm poundage quotas. However, marketings above the poundage quota are deducted from the following year's quotas. For marketings above 103 percent, growers must pay a penalty of $1.35 a pound (75 percent of the average market price for the preceding year). Based on the September USDA estimate, 1996 production will total about 898 million pounds. Growers carried over only 6 million pounds of 1995 crop. The effective quota is 944 million pounds, so enough quota is available to sell the estimated production even without the reduction from Hurricane Fran, and for the 1995 carryover this season as well. Individual growers cannot sell more than 103 percent of their quota without being heavily penalized. Lease and transfer of flue-cured quotas has applied, since 1988, for disaster conditions only. Disappearance Lower in 1995/96 Last season, disappearance of flue-cured tobacco totaled 875 million pounds, about 40 million pounds below 1994/95. Domestic use fell, but exports changed little. Lower U.S. supplies and the high cost of U.S. tobacco dampened demand in spite of lower exports from Brazil and Zimbabwe. Also, there has been no export credit guarantee program (GSM 102) assistance available to facilitate U.S. tobacco exports. Among leading importers, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Turkey took more than last year, while Japan, Thailand, and Belgium took less. For 1995/96, U.S. leaf exports will likely decline because world production is expected to increase, and greater exportable supplies will be available. Although U.S. quality appears high this season, supplies are down, enabling lower priced leaf in Zimbabwe and Brazil, also of relatively high quality, to compete effectively in the world market. Demand for American blend cigarettes continues to grow, but in percentage terms, this can mean less flue-cured per cigarette compared with many types already produced. In many major importing countries, cigarette consumption is declining or stable, and cigarette leaf use per cigarette is generally declining due to more efficient manufacturing processes. Supplies Uncertain Excluding the effects of Hurricane Fran, flue-cured supplies were estimated about 1 percent higher than last season, after falling 2 percent the previous year. Harvested acreage rose 6 percent compared with 1994/95, and yields are expected to be higher. Less than 1 percent of the tobacco marketed in 1996 was produced in 1995. The domestic flue-cured carryover held by manufacturers and dealers on July 1, 1996, totaled 1 billion pounds, 10 percent higher than a year earlier. Flue-cured supply (indicated marketings plus carryover) was estimated about 2.5 times prospective use before the hurricane, slightly higher than the traditional benchmark level. Marketings this season may not exceed use, as previously expected. Carryover next July 1 is uncertain at this time. Domestic cigarette manufacturers are purchasing less tobacco from producer marketings this year. Loan stocks did not change much. Most uncommitted stabilization stocks of flue-cured tobacco (excluding the current year’s crop) have been purchased since the hurricane. With small loan takings this year, unsold loan stocks on January 1, 1997 should be about nil. Use of foreign-grown flue-cured leaf and stems fell 5 percent in 1995/96, declining for the third year in a row. Stocks of foreign-grown flue-cured were 18 percent higher on July 1, 1996 than a year earlier. Stocks are rising because cigarette manufacturers are likely shifting to greater use of cheaper imported leaf for manufacturing cigarettes. The Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) has been in effect since September 13, 1995 and flue-cured imports (arrivals) have risen since its implementation. Burley Total burley tobacco use likely fell in 1995/96. In the marketing year ending September 30, 1996, about 67 percent of the crop will be used for cigarettes, 31 percent exported, and the remainder used for other products, primarily smoking tobacco. Disappearance Down For the year ending September 30, 1996 (October 1995-September 1996), domestic use of U.S. burley is expected to fall from the 468 million pounds used in 1994/95 (table 16). Exports are expected to rise, but total disappearance of U.S. burley is expected to decline 9 percent. Carryover of U.S.-grown burley is expected to fall 8 percent because marketings last year were below use. For the first 9 months of 1995/96, burley exports totaled 153.2 million pounds, farm sales weight, about 11 percent above a year earlier. Exports to the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy advanced. Japan reduced its purchases. World Production World burley production advanced, reversing last year’s decline as both acreage and yields increased. U.S. production is expected to gain 36 percent, while production elsewhere is set to gain 7 percent. In addition to the United States, production in Malawi, Argentina, Brazil, Thailand, and Italy should advance. South Korea, India, and the Philippines face lower production. Supplies To Increase for 1996/97. The September forecast of the 1996 U.S. burley crop is 593 million pounds, about 36 percent greater than last year. Although planting delays and blue mold have affected the 1996 crop, prospects are better than last year when blue mold slashed yields. Currently, harvesting is progressing at about the normal rate. Marketings in 1996/97 are forecast between 580 and 610 million pounds, compared with 482 million pounds last year. The effective quota of 720 million pounds should not constrain the amount marketed this year. The projected marketings, combined with lower carryover, are likely to advance supplies 2 percent. This is about 2.6 times the expected disappearance, the same as last year. The 1996/97 marketings are estimated at 81 percent of the effective quota, compared with 84 percent last year. Since 1985, marketings have fallen short of the effective quota, especially in Tennessee. Beginning in 1991, the quota law was changed to permit greater use of burley quota, including belt wide sales of burley quotas within counties, and lease and transfer of quotas across county lines in Tennessee. Until 1994, manufacturers were shifting away from U.S. burley to using more foreign-grown burley. However, during July 1995-June 1996, use of imported burley tobacco fell to about 149 million pounds from 161 million pounds a year earlier and stocks of foreign-grown burley fell 3 percent from July 1, 1995 to July 1 1996. U.S. auction sales usually begin in late November. The 1995 crop sold for $1.854 per pound, 1.3 cents above the previous marketing year. In 1996, price supports will average $1.737 for all burley grades, an average gain of 1.2 cents per pound. The no-net-cost fee and the budget deficit assessment combined total 1 cent per pound each for growers and purchasers. Of the 1 cent, the budget deficit assessment accounts for .8685 cent. The budget deficit assessment was implemented in 1991. Southern Maryland Southern Maryland tobacco (type 32), a light air-cured tobacco, goes almost entirely into cigarette production. About 34 percent of the crop was exported last year. Disappearance Continues Slide Maryland tobacco disappearance totaled 14.2 million pounds during October 1995-June 1996, a half million below a year earlier. Domestic use is expected to be 17 million pounds, down from 1995, but exports have been strong. Prices of 1995 Maryland tobacco advanced 10 cents per pound due to export demand and a good quality crop. By January 1, carryover may increase from last year’s 11.1 million pounds. Exports of Maryland tobacco are up 68 percent to 4.9 million pounds during the first 9 months of the marketing year, and have nearly reached last year’s 12-month total. Sales to Switzerland, the largest user, advanced, as did those to Germany, Italy, Nigeria, and Indonesia. Production and Supplies Up The 1996 crop of Maryland tobacco is estimated at 18.7 million pounds, 4 percent over 1995. Production is expected to rise in both Pennsylvania and Maryland. Carryin should increase by less than 1 million pounds, further boosting supply. The 1981 farm act prohibits growing and marketing Maryland tobacco in quota areas. However, quotas are not applicable to Pennsylvania seedleaf tobacco, so with seedleaf’s usually lower prices, some growers have changed to Maryland production. About 34 percent of total Maryland production will be grown in Pennsylvania in 1996. Fire-Cured Fire-cured tobacco is mainly used in making snuff, and plug and twist chewing tobacco. Half the crop is usually exported. During the last 4 seasons, production and use have rebounded. Favorable supply-use ratios have resulted in strong prices. Disappearance Up Disappearance of fire-cured (types 22-23), during the first 9 months of the 1995/96 marketing year (beginning October 1, 1995) was 13 percent higher than the same period last year, at 30 million pounds. Domestic use and exports both advanced. Disappearance of Virginia fire-cured tobacco (type 21) also gained. Output of snuff, the major domestic use of fire-cured, has been increasing. Estimated disappearance of types 22-23 for the entire marketing year (October 1995-September 1996) is estimated at 39 million pounds, greater than 1994/95. Carryover is expected to decline slightly. Kentucky-Tennessee tobacco (types 22-23) exports reached 12.2 million pounds during the first 9 months of the 1995/96 marketing year and were higher than last season. Shipments of Virginia fire-cured (type 21) dropped sharply. Dark Air-Cured Dark air-cured (types 35-37) is used in plug and twist chewing tobacco, snuff, and to some extent, smoking tobacco. Production and use have declined by more than half over the last 2 decades. Exports usually account for 10 to 20 percent of total use. Slight Rebound in Use Disappearance of dark air-cured (types 35-36) tobacco totaled 7.8 million pounds during October-June, a gain of a half million over the same period in 1994/95. Domestic use gained as exports declined. A slight increase in plug-chewing tobacco output caused the gain. During 1995/96, total disappearance of types 35-36 is expected to increase by 10 percent to about 10 million pounds. The resulting carryover to 1996/97 should be about 26 million pounds, less than at the beginning of 1995/96. Disappearance of sun-cured tobacco (type 37) is lower and about the same as last year at 100,000 pounds. Production and Supplies Up. The September estimate of dark air-cured tobacco is 9.6 million pounds, 12 percent above last season. Supplies in 1996/97 should decline however, due to lower beginning stocks. Next season’s supplies represent about 3.6 times this season’s estimated use. Cigar Tobacco Cigar leaf (types 41-61) is classified according to its traditional use: filler, binder, and wrapper. Most cigar wrapper is exported, but loose leaf chewing tobacco takes most of the filler and binder. Exports of filler and binder are negligible. Total U.S. cigar leaf production fell 5 percent in 1995/96. Production was less than half its early 1980 levels. Production is expected to fall again in 1996. Imports of cigar leaf rose, while imports of cigar scrap fell, both for the second year. Total cigar leaf imports advanced 11 percent. Indonesia, and the Dominican Republic are the chief suppliers of cigar leaf and scrap. About 95 million pounds were used domestically for cigar and loose leaf chewing tobacco production. For 1995/96, imports accounted for about 75 percent of total domestic use, slightly more than last year. Filler Disappearance Down For the first 9 months of 1995/96 (October-June), disappearance of U.S. cigar filler tobacco (types 41-46) totaled 9.7 million pounds, 23 percent below October-June 1994/95. Lower production and lower carryin resulted in declining supply. After rising in 1994/95, disappearance is expected to reach 11.7 million pounds for the entire 1995/96 marketing year (October-September), a decline of 3.2 million pounds. Cigar Binder Disappearance Declines Cigar binder disappearance (Wisconsin and Connecticut) is expected to decline slightly in 1995/96. For Wisconsin binder tobacco (types 54-55), loose leaf chewing is the major outlet. Output of loose leaf chewing for the first 9 months of 1995/96 has fallen compared with the previous year. Disappearance of Wisconsin tobacco will likely fall in 1995/96. Disappearance of Wisconsin binder tobacco will again exceed production, resulting in lower beginning stocks in 1996/97. Disappearance of Connecticut Valley binder (type 51) should fall behind marketings in 1995/96 as lower beginning stocks will be offset by higher production. Production in 1996 is projected at 2.6 million pounds. Disappearance of Connecticut Valley binder is expected to equal production as higher production is offset by lower beginning stocks. Cigar Wrapper Disappearance Up For the June 1995-July 1996 marketing year, shade-grown cigar wrapper (type 61) disappearance rose 23 percent to 1.8 million pounds. Production in 1996 is projected at 2 million pounds, about the same as 1995/96. Much of the shade-grown cigar wrapper is shipped overseas for processing, either to foreign buyers or subsidiaries of U.S. firms in the Dominican Republic. Imported Cigar Tobacco Use Declines During October 1995-June 1996, manufacturers used 51.7 million pounds of imported cigar tobacco, compared with 57.9 million pounds during the same period the previous year. U.S. stocks of foreign-grown cigar leaf totaled 78.6 million pounds on July 1, 1996, about 2 million pounds more than July 1995. Supplies Down Supplies of U.S.-grown cigar tobacco will fall again in 1996. The prospective crop and the carryover are both smaller. Filler supplies are down, but binder and wrapper supplies are up. As of July 1, 1996, no cigar filler or binder was held by cooperatives. Filler: As of September 1, the Pennsylvania filler crop was indicated at 9 million pounds, about 2 percent less than 1995. The new crop, plus carryover, will provide a supply that is about 2.6 million pounds below last season. Production of Ohio filler has ceased because of high no-net-cost assessments. Puerto Rican filler is no longer included in the program and production has ceased. Binder: Cigar binder acreage is lower and production is expected to decline. As of September 1, production was estimated at 7.7 million pounds. Supplies will increase in 1996/97, however, due to higher beginning stocks. Wisconsin binder production continues to decline. Carryover is expected to fall as use exceeds production for the third consecutive year. Supplies are expected to decline again in 1996/97. Wrapper: Acreage of Connecticut Valley wrapper is expected to be up in 1996 with production estimated at 2 million pounds, 70,000 pounds higher than the previous year. Both production and carryover will boost supply above last year's 4.1 million pounds. Special Article Costs of Producing and Selling Flue-Cured Tobacco: 1994, 1995, & Preliminary 1996 by Dargan Glaze, Agricultural economist, Rural Economy Division, Economic Research Service, USDA. Abstract: The variable costs of producing and selling flue-cured tobacco increased from $1,899 per acre in 1995 to $1,964 in 1996, with selling and labor costs accounting for most of this increase. Total costs per acre, excluding land and quota costs, are expected to increase from $2,687 per acre in 1995 to $2,793 in 1996. The variable costs of producing flue-cured tobacco per 100 pounds was about $98 in 1996, which was a decrease of $8.24 per 100 pounds from 1995. The total costs per 100 pounds, excluding a charge for land and quota, averaged $139 in 1995 and is expected to decrease to $128 in 1996. Keywords: Flue-cured tobacco, variable costs, total costs, costs of production. Cost Changes: 1994 to 1995 The variable costs of producing an acre of flue-cured tobacco increased between 1994 and 1995 ($1,885 to $1,899) (table A-1). While most cost components increased from 1994 to 1995, selling costs (warehouse fees, no-net-cost, marketing assessments, inspection and grading fees) declined from $198 in 1994 to $123 in 1995. A sell-off of flue-cured tobacco placed under the loan program lowered loan stocks, thereby decreasing the risk of losses in operating the price support program. The largest change between individual cost items per acre was selling costs (decreased by $75), followed by fertilizer and lime (increased by $30), and curing and heating fuel (increased by $23). Variable production costs per 100 pounds were $78 in 1994 and $98 in 1995. The largest change between individual cost items per 100 pounds was labor (increased by $7.57), followed by curing and heating fuel (increased by $3.66) and fertilizer and lime (increased by $3.35). Total ownership costs per acre rose 8 percent ($523 to $564) from 1994 to 1995. Continued increases in machinery prices resulted in an increase in capital replacement costs from $290 in 1994 to $321 in 1995. Both general farm overhead and land and quota costs decreased by almost 17 and 18 percent, respectively, reflecting both an increase of $9.20 per 100 pounds for the average market price of flue-cured tobacco and a decrease of 487 pounds per acre in yield. Land and quota charges decreased from $979 per acre in 1994 to $798 due to lower yields. General farm overhead declined by $42 per acre. Total ownership costs per 100 pounds of flue-cured tobacco rose from $21.60 in 1994 to $29.18 in 1995 with capital replacement costs increasing by $4.62. General farm overhead and land and quota charges increased slightly between 1994 to 1995 (60 and 85 cents, respectively). Cost Changes: 1995 to 1996 Preliminary 1996 estimates indicate an increase in the variable costs of producing an acre of flue-cured tobacco by almost 3 percent from $1,899 to $1,964 (table A-1). Most costs increased, but selling costs (warehouse fees, no-net-cost, marketing assessments, inspection and grading fees) increased by 17 percent. Without consideration of all selling costs, variable costs per acre would have increased by about 3 percent. Chemical costs rose from $218 to $223 between 1995 to 1996. Selling and labor costs increased by $21 and $24 per acre, respectively, from 1995 to 1996. Variable production costs per 100 pounds averaged about $98 in 1995 and $90 in 1996. The largest change between individual cost items per 100 pounds was labor (decreased by $3.18), followed by curing and heating fuel (decreased by $1.36). Total ownership costs per acre rose 2 percent ($564 to $575). Of the ownership costs, taxes and insurance costs increased the most (3 percent). Both general farm overhead and land and quota costs increased by almost 13 percent, reflecting the effects of an increase of 250 pounds per acre in yield. Total ownership costs per 100 pounds of flue-cured tobacco declined from $29.18 in 1995 to $26.32 in 1996 with capital replacement costs decreasing by $1.70. General farm overhead and land and quota charges were essentially unchanged between 1995 to 1996. Data Sources The production costs presented in this article were estimated from data collected in February and March of 1992 for the 1991 flue-cured crop year from USDA's Farm Costs and Returns Survey (FCRS). These data were obtained from 243 flue-cured producers in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Growers in these States produce about 97 percent of the U.S. flue-cured tobacco crop. The Economic Research Service (ERS) develops costs of production data in the form of an enterprise budget that summarizes all operator and landlord costs and returns associated with the production of an acre of flue-cured tobacco. The per acre and per 100 pounds cost estimates are weighted averages of the production surveyed. Data from the FCRS flue-cured producers, along with data from National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reports, such as Agricultural Prices, Crop Production, and Farm Labor, were used to calculate and update the flue-cured cost of production budgets. The market prices for the flue-cured tobacco crop averaged $1.698 per pound for 1994 and $1.79 per pound for 1995. Because the 1996 flue-cured markets are still open, the season-average price is not yet available. A price of $1.80 per pound was estimated for the 1996 crop based on market prices to date. The yields for 1994 and 1995 were based on actual U.S. yields from NASS, averaging 2,420 and 1,933 pounds per acre, respectively. Yields for 1996 were those indicated by NASS as of September, averaging 2,183 pounds per acre. Procedures for Estimating Costs Some costs were initially calculated by ERS' Budget Generator Model. The model uses survey information, such as field operations, machinery and equipment, and power sources, to calculate taxes and insurance, capital replacement, and return to nonland capital. Costs obtained directly from the FCRS include labor (paid and unpaid), fertilizer and lime, plant bed materials, chemicals, custom operations, noncash labor benefits, fuel and lubrication, curing and heating fuel, repairs, and quota rental costs and arrangements. These items are updated in nonsurvey years with price indexes. Other variable cost items, such as no-net-cost, marketing, and inspection and grading fees, were obtained from other sources. Finally, the quantities and costs from the survey farms were weighted to reflect the acreage represented by individual farms and aggregated to the national level. UPCOMING USDA SURVEY WILL COLLECT FLUE-CURED TOBACCO INFORMATION The USDA will survey flue-cured tobacco producers during November 1996 as part of a revised Farm Costs and Returns Survey (FCRS) called the Agricultural Resource Management Study (ARMS). Past FCRS had one farm contact in February. This year, there will be two contacts for the ARMS. Production costs and production practice information, as well as chemical use and integrated pest management practices, will be collected in the fall on a randomly selected field used to grow flue-cured tobacco. A follow-up contact in the spring will collect whole farm financial and operator information. If selected for the survey, a farmer is notified by the State's Agricultural Statistics Service by mail and contacted by an interviewer to set up an appointment time that is convenient to the farmer. The fall survey requires between 1 and 2 hours to complete. All information is kept strictly confidential and Federal law restricts USDA from releasing individual responses to any other Federal or State agency. Results from this survey are used by USDA to establish its cost-of-production estimates, which are used to administer tobacco programs. USDA's Farm Service Agency uses cost-of-production data in setting price supports. The income and expense data are used in calculating the farm sector's contributions to U.S. Gross Domestic Product which are used in various Federal programs. ARMS data are often the only available information to answer questions from the White House, Congress, and the Secretary of Agriculture about agricultural issues. The survey depends on farmers as the only source of information about what it costs to produce the commodities being surveyed. As one of the most in-depth surveys conducted by USDA, it gives flue-cured tobacco farmers the opportunity to tell policymakers what it actually costs to produce flue-cured tobacco. Thus, producers themselves, through their participation in the ARMS, have the opportunity to help shape future agricultural policy. Farmers' cooperation is essential for the success of this upcoming survey. Special Article U. S. Tobacco Import Update by Nydia R. Suarez, Agricultural economist, Commercial Agriculture Division, Economic Research Service, USDA. Abstract: After large declines the 2 previous years, U.S. imports (arrivals) of foreign-grown leaf and stems rose 20 percent during 1995/96 (July/June). The increase was much more pronounced for stems, Oriental, and flue-cured leaf. However, use of foreign-grown flue-cured and burley cigarette tobaccos fell, while consumption of Oriental types rose 3 percent. Due to the disruption of flue-cured harvesting and curing by Hurricane Fran, 1996 flue-cured imports are likely to increase, boosting the proportion of foreign-grown leaf used in cigarette production. From January 1, 1994 until September 12, 1995, U.S. manufacturers were required to use 75 percent U.S.-grown tobacco in cigarettes to avoid assessments. However, U.S. implementing legislation for the GATT Uruguay Round contained provisions ending the domestic content requirements. The tariff rate quota (TRQ) proclaimed by the President effective September 13, is less constraining than the previous domestic content provision. Use of foreign-grown flue-cured and burley cigarette tobaccos is expected to increase. Keywords: Imports, arrivals, Oriental, flue-cured, TRQ. Introduction This article updates articles published annually in the September 1992-95 issues of the Tobacco Situation and Outlook report. Arrivals or general imports of unmanufactured tobacco increased by 20 percent between July 1995 and June 1996, reversing the decline during the 2 previous years. The increase was largest for stems, but other major categories such as Oriental and flue-cured leaf were up as well. Burley leaf, cigar leaf and scrap, and other import categories were down. U.S. leaf imports for consumption had climbed from 413 million pounds in 1990 to more than 1 billion pounds in 1993. The main reason for this surge was the rising popularity in the United States and abroad for low and mid-priced brands. To meet this demand, manufacturers imported an increasing amount of lower cost foreign tobacco. However, during the last 2 years , imports have plunged more than 20 percent, totaling 419 million pounds (calendar year, dry weight) in calendar 1995. The main reason for the drop in leaf imports was the implementation by the United States of the Domestic Marketing Assessment (DMA). The DMA was in effect from January 1, 1994 to September 13, 1995. If foreign leaf content of U.S. cigarettes exceeded 25 percent, a penalty was assessed on the manufacturer for calendar 1994 only. The DMA was eliminated on September 13, 1995 when President Clinton proclaimed a tariff rate quota (TRQ) for cigarette leaf tobacco, mainly flue-cured and burley. The proclamation also eliminated duties on Oriental and cigar wrapper, binder, and filler tobacco. Imports of cigarette leaf tobaccos which exceed predetermined quota levels will be subject to an import duty of 350 percent ad valorem. A draw-back provision allows most of the duty to be refunded if the same leaf that is imported is reexported. Tariff Rate Quota Activity For the period September 13, 1995 through August 25, 1996, U.S. leaf imports within the TRQ totaled more than 200 million pounds. With about 2 weeks left in the TRQ year, only 70 percent of the total quota allocation of 331.7 million pounds has been imported. Imports will likely increase in the wake of Hurricane Fran. The volume of tobacco imports for consumption under nine harmonized tariff subheadings, primarily flue-cured and burley, during the period from September 13 in any year to September 12 of the following year, are restricted to the following quantities: ______________________________________________________________________________ Country 1995/96 Imports through Percent of quota Sept 1 TRQ used _______________________________________________________________________________ Million pounds (Declared weight) Argentina 26.5 26.5 100.0 Brazil 176.8 119.6 67.6 Chile 6.1 6.0 99.4 EU 22.0 15.3 69.3 Guatemala 18.7 4.4 23.3 Malawi 26.5 26.4 99.9 Philippines 6.6 .0 0.0 Thailand 15.4 14.5 94.1 Zimbabwe 26.5 11.9 45.1 Other 6.6 6.6 100.0 Total 331.7 231.2 69.7 _______________________________________________________________________________ Imports Continue To Fall in 1995/96 On a farm sales-weight basis, estimated U.S. imports of flue-cured tobacco fell 5 percent from 1994/95 to 1995/96 (tables B-1 and B-2). However, since domestic use fell faster, the import share rose slightly to 23 percent of total domestic flue-cured use. Foreign-grown flue-cured stocks, held by U.S. tobacco dealers and manufacturers, rose 18 percent from July 1, 1995 to July 1, 1996 (table B-3). Burley imports fell more than 7 percent from 1994/95 to 1995/96. Domestic use also declined, and the import share of total domestic burley use increased about 1 percent. Foreign-grown burley stocks declined 3 percent from July 1, 1995 to July 1, 1996. Based on arrival data (adjusted for stocks changes), Oriental imports rose 3 percent in 1995/96. Stocks on hand rose slightly from July 1, 1995 to July 1, 1996. Cigar leaf imports rose 4 percent to almost 80 million pounds. For the fifth consecutive year, cigar leaf imports represented about three-fourths of cigar leaf disappearance (use) in the United States. List of Tables Table 1. Cigarettes: U.S. output, removals, and consumption, 1987-96 2. Per capita consumption of tobacco products, 1987-96 3. U.S. cigarette exports to leading destinations, 1995-96 4. Tobacco demand factors, 1985-96 5. Wholesale cigarette price revisions, 1990-96 6. Wholesale nonbrand cigarette price revisions, 1990-96 7. Cigars and smoking tobacco, Output, removals, and consumption, 1993-96 8. Tobacco products: Output by category, 1987-96 9. U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco by type to principal countries, 1992-96 10. U.S. imports of unmanufactured tobacco, consumption and general, 1995-96 11. U.S. imports of and other tobacco: Quantity and average value, by kinds, 1995-96 12. All tobacco: Acreage, yield, and production, United States, 1965-96 13. U.S. tobacco allotments, by kinds of tobacco, 1996 14. Flue-cured tobacco auction markets: Gross sales, average price, loan receipts, sales dates, 1995-96 15. Flue-cured and burley tobacco: Marketing quota and marketings, 1985-96 16. Flue-cured and burley: U.S. supplies, disappearance, prices, 1986-96 17. U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco by types, to principal countries, crop years, 1993/94-1995/96 18. Tobacco: No-net-cost assessment, by kind, 1987-96 19. Burley marketing quota, Kentucky, Tennessee, other States, 1994-96 20. Burley tobacco: Percentage of selected groups, quality, and color categories of total, 1985-95 21. Sales of burley tobacco quotas, 1990/91-1994/95 22. Tobacco loan stocks, 1993-95 23. Southern Maryland tobacco: U.S. supplies, disappearance, prices, 1987-96 24. Fire-cured tobacco: U.S. supplies, disappearance, prices, 1986-96 25. Dark air-cured tobacco: U.S. supplies, disappearance, prices, 1986-96 26. Cigar tobacco: U.S. supplies, disappearance, prices, 1987-96 27. Cigarettes: Estimated world output and trade, 1988-95 28. Estimated leaf used for cigarettes by kinds of tobacco, 1960-95 29. Expenditures for tobacco products and disposable personal income, 1986-96 30. Governmental revenues from tobacco products, 1986-95 Statistical Summary A-1. Costs of producint and selling flue-cured tobacco, 1994-96 B-1. Estimated U.S. imports of flue-cured and burley tobacco, and domestic use, 1969-95 (farm sales weight) B-2. Estimated Disappearance of U.S-grown and imported cigarette tobaccos, 1969-95 (farm sales weight) B-3. Imported foreign-grown cigarette leaf stocks, by quarters, 1985-96 B-4. Estimated disappearance of U.S.-grown and imported cigarette tobaccos, 1969-95 (farm sales weight) END-OF-FILE