VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES--SUMMARY July 25, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Per Capita Vegetable Use Up 1 Percent Per capita use of 56 selected vegetable and melon categories rose 1 percent in 1995 to 433 pounds (farm-weight basis) and is expected to rise again in 1996. While fresh vegetable and potato use was flat last year, overall vegetable utilization rose due to increases in canning (3 percent) and freezing (2 percent) vegetables. Per capita use of fresh vegetables (excluding potatoes, pulses, and mushrooms) remained constant at 146 pounds. Increased use (as measured at the farm gate) of melons, carrots, onions, and tomatoes offset declines in head lettuce, sweet corn, bell peppers, and cabbage. Per capita use of garlic continued to climb in 1995 and exceeded 2 pounds for the first time--increasing 10 percent to 2.1 pounds. Disappearance of vegetables for freezing and tomatoes for processing increased in 1995. As a result, use of vegetables for processing (excluding potatoes and mushrooms) rose 3 percent to about 129 pounds per person. Per capita use of vegetables for freezing (excluding potatoes) rose 2 percent to 22.5 pounds due primarily to increased use of sweet corn (up 14 percent) which rose with strong supplies and low wholesale prices. Based on preliminary data, per capita use of potatoes in all forms remained about unchanged in 1995 at 140 pounds. Decreased use of fresh potatoes was offset by increased use of frozen and dehydrated product. Potatoes destined for manufacture into frozen products accounted for more than one-third of all potatoes produced--up from just 5 percent in 1959/60. Overall potato use is forecast to increase slightly in 1996 as production is expected to rise. With slightly larger production, somewhat lower prices, and a strong economy boosting demand, both french fry use and fresh use are expected to increase. With production lower, per capita use of sweet potatoes in 1995 fell slightly to 4.5 pounds--still above the average for the previous 5 years, which was 4.3 pounds. Despite expectations for a record processing tomato crop in California, total processing vegetable output in 1996 will likely fall from a year ago given reduced vegetable acreage and expected below-trend yields. The first estimate of 1996 contract production for green peas indicates a 16-percent drop from 1995 to 412,690 short tons, as an 18-percent decline in harvested area outweighs a slight gain in per acre yield. With favorable growing conditions in California, higher yields are expected to boost 1996 U.S. processing tomato production 8 percent to a record-high 12 million short tons. However, in 1996 retail prices for all processed vegetables are expected to increase, as smaller crops of sweet corn, snap beans, and green peas reduce stocks and lead to higher prices through next year. With higher acreage this fall, the 1996 potato crop is expected to increase from a year ago. Larger yields are expected in several key States and should combine with higher acreage to boost output. With output higher, the season-average price for all potatoes is expected to average below a year earlier and consumers can expect lower fresh potato prices this fall and into next spring. During the first half of 1996, vegetable supplies and prices were highly variable due primarily to crop damage from freezes and heavy rains in Florida. During the spring, planting and crop progress were hindered by excessive rains in the Midwest, a late freeze in Idaho, and drought in the Southwest. Severe weather in Florida damaged tender winter vegetables, causing prices for bell peppers and tomatoes (among others) to increase. Supply shortages for some items developed during early 1996 with prices moving well above the average for the previous 3 years. In California, weather has generally been favorable for crop development this year. In 1995, U.S. vegetable production (including potatoes, sweet potatoes, and dry beans) declined 4 percent from the previous year. Excessive spring rains in California, a late freeze in the Pacific Northwest, and hot dry conditions in other parts of the country were influential in reducing output for every major category except pulses (dry bean production rose 7 percent). Production was lower for fresh-market vegetables and melons (down 2 percent), vegetables for processing (4 percent), potatoes (5 percent), and sweet potatoes (4 percent). In 1995, the United States continued to be a net exporter (in dollar value) of vegetables and melons. Exports increased 5 percent to $2.8 billion, while imports rose 13 percent to $2.6 billion. U.S. imports from Mexico rose 17 percent and accounted for about 52 percent of total vegetable and melon imports. Although the United States remains in deficit in fresh vegetable, melon, frozen vegetable, and mushroom trade, substantial trade surpluses continue in canned vegetables, potatoes, dry edible beans and peas, and seed. Fresh vegetable imports (excluding potatoes and mushrooms) totaled $1.4 billion in 1995, up 21 percent from a year earlier. Fresh-tomato import value totaled $451 million, up 31 percent from a year earlier. Tomato import volume rose 57 percent to 13.7 million cwt--about 29 percent of total domestic supply. The import share of the U.S. tomato supply has increased substantially the past 2 years due to factors such as the Mexican peso devaluation, improved quality of Mexican vine-ripe tomatoes, and poor weather in Florida that limited domestic supply. These factors contributed to a substantial increase in import volume during the first 5 months of 1996 compared with a year earlier. In 1995, the United States exported 8.1 percent of its fresh-market vegetable supplies (production plus imports), down from 8.6 percent in 1994 (excludes potatoes). On the other side of the ledger, the United States imported about 11 percent of its total fresh vegetable supplies last year, up from 9 percent a year earlier. About 6 percent of canned vegetable supplies were exported in 1995, while 2 percent was imported. In 1995, 7 percent of vegetables for freezing (excluding potatoes) were exported. Imports accounted for 9 percent of freezing supply with broccoli accounting for about half of frozen imports. The United States continued to post a positive net export value for potatoes in 1995. The net value of potato trade (export value minus import value) rose to $437 million, up 6 percent from the previous year. The value of 1995 exports increased 8 percent to a record $618 million. The value of potato and potato product imports increased 12 percent to $181 million. On a fresh-weight- equivalent basis, the volume of all potato exports totaled 37 million cwt, up 23 percent from 1994. Frozen products accounted for 16.7 million cwt (up 30 percent) while dried and dehydrated products accounted for about 9.6 million cwt. For the first 4 months of 1996, export volume and value were running near a year earlier. Printed copies of the Vegetables and Specialties Yearbook will be available in about a week. For more information, contact Gary Lucier (202) 219-0117, John Love (202) 219-1268, or Charles Plummer (202) 219-0717. Text of the report will also be available electronically. For details on electronic access, call 219-0515. END_OF_FILE