VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES YEARBOOK August 11, 2000 July 2000, ERS-VGS-281 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES YEARBOOK is published annually by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES YEARBOOK -- tables and graphics are not included. (See supplemental data in Lotus 123 .WK1 files.) Printed copies of this YEARBOOK will be available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # ERS-VGS-2000, $21. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contents Summary Glossary of Specialized Terms List of Tables Situation Coordinator Gary Lucier Voice (202) 694-5253 FAX: (202) 694-5820 E-mail: GLucier@ers.usda.gov Principal Contributors Gary Lucier (202) 694-5253 Statistical Assistant Brenda Toland ADP Support Stacy Jones Editor Martha R. Evans Graphics, Table Design, and Layout Wynnice Pointer-Napper Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Summary released July 27, 2000. The summary of the next Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook is scheduled for release on November 16, 2000. Summaries and text of Situation and Outlook reports may be accessed electronically; for details, call (202) 694-5050. The Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook is published semi-annually (April and November), and supplemented by a yearbook (July). Summary In 2000, vegetable and melon consumption is projected to exceed the 1999 record high. On a per capita basis, the total is expected to remain near last year's level. Reduced fresh-market use is expected to be offset by increases in canning vegetables and potatoes. Fresh-market use will likely decline about 1 percent as growers and shippers reduce production in response to financial losses caused by low shipping-point prices the previous year. However, canning use is forecast to rise about 3 percent, led by an increase in processed tomato products. Per-capita use of all vegetables and melons totaled 454 pounds in 1999--up 8 pounds from a year earlier. Large supplies and much lower prices led to a 5-percent increase in fresh vegetable use (excluding potatoes). Increases were also noted in vegetables for freezing, potatoes, and dry beans. On the fresh-market side, significant increases in 1999 per-capita use were experienced in cauliflower (up 40 percent), head lettuce (15 percent), broccoli (15 percent), cantaloup (9 percent), and watermelon (8 percent). Utilization of cantaloup, which has enjoyed increasing popularity over the past few years, increased as supplies from both domestic (up 7 percent) and import (up 18 percent) sources rose. Very few fresh-market vegetables experienced reduced use last year, with declines in cabbage (down 8 percent), leaf/romaine lettuce (7 percent), and tomatoes (1 percent) most noteworthy. Per-capita use of all processing vegetables (including potatoes and mushrooms) totaled 224 pounds (fresh equivalent) in 1999, largely unchanged from a year earlier. The lack of change was due to a 4-percent drop in use of canning vegetables, which offset a 4-percent gain in vegetables used in frozen products (including potatoes). Canning use (including potatoes and mushrooms) totaled about 106 pounds per person, with freezing use (including potatoes) at 86 pounds. Another 29 pounds per capita of potatoes are processed into chips and dehydrated products. In 2000, utilization of processed vegetables is expected to increase 2 percent, spurred largely by lower prices for several canned products. Based on preliminary data, per-capita use of potatoes, the largest U.S. vegetable crop, rose 10 percent to about 142 pounds (fresh equivalent) in 1999. Both fresh and processing uses increased. While processed use, which now accounts for 66 percent of the potato crop, has been rising this decade, fresh use continues to remain relatively stable at around 48 to 50 pounds per person. Shipping-point prices for fresh-market vegetables have been on a roller coaster during 2000. In the first half of the year, prices received by U.S. commercial vegetable and melon growers averaged 1 percent less than a year earlier and 8 percent below 2 years ago. Continuing a general slide that began in the spring of 1999, shipping-point prices for fresh-market vegetables during the first quarter averaged 13 percent below a year earlier and were the lowest since 1986. Unusually cool, wet weather in central California interfered with the production of many vegetables, and the resulting jump in second-quarter prices nearly offset the sharp first quarter decline. Second-quarter prices averaged the third highest on record for that quarter. Shipping-point prices declined seasonally in late June and July, as traditional summer supplies came into the market from a variety of States. In 1999, despite cool, rainy spring weather in California, the summer drought in the East, and hurricanes in the South, total U.S. vegetable and melon output rose 7 percent. With the exception of dry edible peas (down 15 percent), vegetables for freezing (down 3 percent), and sweet potatoes (down 3 percent), production of all aggregate vegetable categories increased. Both fresh and canning vegetable output reached record highs in 1999. Fresh vegetable production rose 7 percent, led by double-digit percentage gains for artichokes, garlic, honeydew melons, broccoli, head lettuce, and watermelon. Canning vegetable production rose 27 percent, led by a 37-percent jump in tomatoes for processing. Record-high yields outweighed reduced acreage to push potato output up 1 percent in 1999, while record-high yields helped drive dry bean production up 9 percent. Given ample supplies of most all vegetables and melons in 1999, prices received by U.S. commercial vegetable and melon growers were the lowest since 1991. The index of prices received by growers for commercial vegetables (largely fresh-market) decreased 10 percent in 1999 due largely to lower summer and fall-season prices. Shipping-point prices averaged below a year earlier for each of the four quarters of 1999. Cold, wet spring weather brought higher annual average prices for carrots (up 42 percent) and asparagus (up 6 percent) which were outweighed by lower prices (caused by large crops) for tomatoes and onions (each down 26 percent) and broccoli (down 24 percent). The index of retail prices for fresh-market vegetables (including potatoes) declined 3 percent in 1999. Decreases were noted for several major items, including broccoli (down 9 percent), lettuce (11 percent), tomatoes (7 percent), and sweet peppers (8 percent). With much higher energy and fuel costs this spring, retail prices for fresh-market vegetables averaged 3 percent above those of a year earlier during the first 6 months of 2000. Average retail prices for processed vegetables (frozen, canned, and dried) increased 1 percent during the first 6 months, largely reflecting increased marketing costs. Processors of five major vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, snap beans, green peas, and cucumbers for pickles) expect to contract for 1.37 million acres in 2000--down 2 percent from the comparable producing States of a year ago. Most of the decline will come from tomatoes, with processors contracting for 15 percent fewer acres in an attempt to reduce stocks and strengthen lackluster wholesale prices. Processors also plan to reduce sweet corn contract area, with all of the reduction in area for freezing (down 7 percent). Contract area is expected to rise for green peas (up 6 percent), cucumbers for pickles (4 percent), and snap beans (3 percent). Assuming average acreage losses and trend yields this coming season, output of the five leading processing vegetables could be 8 to 12 percent lower than a year ago and total around 16 million short tons. As of July 1, the contract portion of the 2000 U.S. processing tomato crop is expected to decline 16 percent from a year earlier to 10.5 million short tons. Contract output accounts for 98 percent of the tomato crop. Processors are reducing the crop this year because of low wholesale prices and large stocks caused by the record-shattering crop of 12.8 million tons in 1999. The smaller domestic pack and increased exports should help reduce stocks and strengthen wholesale tomato product prices in the coming year. During the first 5 months of 2000, export volume was up 5 percent from a year earlier, with average value per unit down 5 percent. The first estimate of 2000 contract production for processing green peas indicated a 9-percent increase from a year earlier to 499,920 short tons. Estimated area for harvest was up 6 percent, with acreage up in every major State except Oregon. Recovering from a decline last year, yields are expected to rise 4 percent to 1.76 tons per acre-the second highest on record. Driven by increased wholesale prices over the past year, most of the gain in green pea output will likely be packed as canned product. Green pea production is expected to increase in most major States, including Washington (up 21 percent), Minnesota (12 percent), and Oregon (10 percent). Despite lower acreage, Oregon's production is expected to rise as yields recover from the weather-induced 16 percent drop of a year ago. This summer (largely July-September), fresh-market vegetable and melon area for harvest is forecast to decline 2 percent from a year ago. Lower acreage is a reflection of weak grower prices since last summer. During the summer of 1999, despite a drought in Eastern States, average prices received by growers for fresh-market vegetables and melons remained depressed, as volume from States such as California was large. California, accounting for 50 percent of this year's summer-season area, reduced acreage 3 percent. New York, the second leading summer-season producer, with 11 percent of acreage, expects to harvest 10 percent less area than a year ago due largely to an unusually cool, wet spring which hindered planting. Prospective area was up for carrots (11 percent), cabbage (6 percent), cauliflower (5 percent), honeydew melons (3 percent), and tomatoes (2 percent) but was expected to be the same or lower for other commodities. With area up in California (where yields exceed the national average) and the likelihood of improved yields in Eastern States (hit by drought a year ago), market volume may not be down much from a year earlier. As a result, summer-season fresh-market vegetable prices may only rise modestly from the lows of a year ago. In 2000, grower cash receipts from the sale of all vegetables and melons are projected to remain near year-earlier levels. Modestly higher shipping-point prices are expected to produce a small rise in fresh-market revenue, which is expected to offset a reduction in the value of processing vegetables. The 1999 estimate of grower cash receipts from the sale of vegetables and melons indicates little change from a year earlier at $15.2 billion. This represented about 16 percent of all U.S. crop receipts. In 1999, lower fresh vegetable and dry bean revenues offset increases in processing vegetables and potatoes. The value of the 25 major fresh-market vegetables and melons fell 6 percent to $7.5 billion, while the 10 leading processing vegetables rose 22 percent to $1.7 billion. The increase in processing value was driven by a 49-percent jump in the value of the processing tomato crop. Although harvested area was down 4 percent in 1999, record-high yields left U.S. potato production up 1 percent to 478.1 million hundredweight (cwt). This was the second largest crop on record after the 499.3 million cwt of 1996. Total domestic potato shipments remained about even with a year earlier during calendar 1999 but have been running above a year earlier so far in 2000. Despite higher prices in the U.S. market, import volume of fresh-market potatoes from Canada declined 17 percent. However, the volume of frozen potato imports from Canada continued to climb to another record high, rising 13 percent from a year earlier. The preliminary season-average farm price received for all 1999-crop potatoes is estimated at $5.84 per cwt, up 5 percent from 1998/99. U.S. fall-season potato growers expect to harvest 3 percent more acres in 2000. Increased area for harvest is expected in Minnesota (up 13 percent), Idaho (5 percent), North Dakota (5 percent), and Washington (3 percent). Reduced acreage is expected in New York (down 18 percent), California (6 percent), and Colorado (2 percent). During the March to May period, when most fall-season potatoes were being planted, U.S. shipping-point prices for all potatoes averaged $6.41 per cwt, 2 percent above a year ago. Reflecting higher potato prices at planting time, summer-season potato growers expect to increase harvested area 1 percent this year. Although per-acre yields are expected to decline 5 percent from last year's record high, they will still be the second highest on record. With yields down, summer potato production is expected to decline 1 percent. The summer crop typically accounts for close to 4 percent of all potato production, with Texas, Colorado, and California the leading States. This spring, U.S. dry edible bean growers reacted to large stocks, slow exports, and low prices by reducing area for harvest to an estimated 1.65 million acres--down 12 percent from a year earlier and 9 percent below the average of the 1990's. If realized, this would be the smallest area harvested since 1993. Harvested area is expected to be down in most major States, including Colorado (24 percent), Minnesota (18 percent), Nebraska (14 percent), Michigan (11 percent), and North Dakota (9 percent). Acreage in New York is expected to rise 29 percent, reflecting the addition of late spring acreage caused by a rainy spring and slightly more attractive prices for light red kidneys--the State's major bean class. With few exceptions, production is expected to decline for most bean classes, including navy, pinto, and black. During the first 6 months of 1999, grower prices for dry beans averaged 12 percent below a year ago, and were the lowest since 1992. Export volume for dry beans during the first 5 months of 2000 was down 13 percent from a year ago and was the lowest January to May volume since 1996. Among the major export markets, sales increased to Mexico and Japan but declined to the United Kingdom. U.S. sweet potato growers expect to harvest 93,300 acres this fall-up 12 percent from a year ago and the largest harvested area since 1985. Higher prices over the past season encouraged growers to plant 2 percent more acres this spring. However, area harvested is greater in percentage terms because it is expected to recover from flood losses in the Carolinas last year that reduced harvested area. If crop conditions remain relatively favorable this year, per-acre yields could improve from the weather-reduced lows of the past two seasons and produce the biggest crop since 1985. With stronger production in 2000, sweet potato per-capita use is expected to rebound from last year's low (4.0 pounds), perhaps reaching 4.6 pounds. In 1998/99, total U.S. mushroom sales rose 5 percent to a record 861 million pounds and are expected to rise again in 1999/2000. Fresh agaricus mushrooms accounted for 77 percent of all agaricus mushroom sales volume and 86 percent of total agaricus value. With reduced imports, processing mushroom sales volume rose 4 percent-the first increase since the 1994/95 season, but still the second smallest volume since the 1988/89 season. With anti-dumping tariffs in place on several countries, the volume of canned mushroom imports declined 7 percent in 1999. The total value of domestic mushroom sales totaled $867 million in 1998/99, placing the crop fifth (following potatoes, tomatoes, lettuce, and onions) among all vegetable crops. Shiitake, oyster, and other specialty mushrooms combined with agaricus Portobello- and Crimini-type mushrooms now account for $106 million in crop value-12 percent of all mushroom sales. In the Pacific Northwest this year, dry edible green pea production is expected to decline due largely to a reduction of about a fifth in seeded area. In reducing area, dry green pea growers were likely reacting to prices that have averaged as much as 15 percent below a year earlier. Domestic per-capita use of dry peas and lentils has been relatively stable over the past 10 years. In 1999, per-capita use was estimated at 0.5 pounds-the same as the average of the past decade. In 1999, the trade deficit in vegetable, melon, and pulse crops continued to expand. While the value of exports increased 1 percent to $3.3 billion, imports rose 5 percent to $4.0 billion. Since 1995 when exports last exceeded imports, import value has risen 51 percent, while export value has increased just 16 percent. In 1999, U.S. imports from Mexico declined 4 percent, and that country's share of the U.S. vegetable and melon market dropped from 50 percent to 46 percent. Driven by fresh greenhouse vegetables, canned sweet corn, and frozen potatoes, imports from Canada rose 15 percent and Canada's share of the U.S. vegetable and melon market rose to 21 percent. Although the United States has trade deficits for fresh vegetables, melons, frozen vegetables, and mushrooms, substantial trade surpluses continue in potatoes, dry edible beans and peas, and vegetable seeds. The value of canned vegetable imports exceeded canned exports in 1999 largely as a result of the short 1998 processing tomato crop. In 1999, processed tomato import volume rose 42 percent to 1.3 billion pounds--about 7 percent of total domestic use. Over the previous 3 years, imports averaged about 4 percent of processing tomato use and are projected to fall to that level again in 2000. In 1999, the United States exported nearly 8 percent of its fresh-market vegetable and melon supplies (production plus imports), the same as during the previous 3 years and up from 7 percent in 1989. On the other side of the ledger, large domestic output and low market prices helped trim U.S. imports to 14 percent of fresh vegetable supplies, compared with 15 percent a year earlier and 10 percent in 1989. With higher prices and reduced stocks, about 7 percent of canned vegetable supplies were exported in 1999--down from 8 percent a year earlier but up from 3 percent in 1989. In 1999, with tomato product prices up due to smaller output in 1998, nearly 11 percent of the vegetables used in canned form were imported compared with 9 percent in both the previous year and in 1989. In 1999, nearly 9 percent of vegetables for freezing (excluding potatoes) were exported-the same as a year earlier but up from 6 percent in 1989. Remaining even with 1998, imports (excluding potatoes) accounted for 10 percent of domestic frozen vegetable consumption last year, with broccoli accounting for 42 percent of frozen vegetable imports. The net value of potato trade (export value minus import value) remained relatively constant in 1999, totaling $386 million. The value of potato and potato-product imports increased 14 percent to $420 million due primarily to increased imports of frozen french fries from Canada. On the export side, the value of 1999 potato and potato-product exports rose 6 percent to $806 million due to a sharp rise (133 percent) in potato flake exports, most of which was destined for the European Union. On a fresh-weight-equivalent basis, the volume of all potato exports totaled 58 million cwt, up 30 percent from 1998. Frozen products accounted for 21.5 million cwt (up 4 percent), while dried and dehydrated products (excluding starch) tripled--accounting for about 21 million cwt compared with 7 million the previous year. For the first 4 months of 2000, frozen french fries continued to drive all potato imports higher (up 16 percent), while export volume dropped 10 percent due to reduced flake exports to Europe. The value of U.S. vegetable exports to China and Hong Kong, combined, (including potatoes, melons, pulses, mushrooms, and vegetable seed) totaled $104 million in 1999, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Six commodities accounted for two-thirds of the vegetables exported to China and Hong Kong. The major items exported were frozen french fries ($26.5 million), potato chips ($18.6 million), lettuce ($8.0 million), celery ($7.4 million), frozen sweet corn ($5.3 million), and canned sweet corn ($4.8 million). Import value from China and Hong Kong rose 1 percent to $143 million, with two-thirds of the total consisting of canned and dehydrated products such as water chestnuts, dehydrated garlic, and bamboo shoots. Glossary of Specialized Terms Arrivals: Quantity of produce received by wholesalers and chain stores in selected cities, as shipped from major production areas. Carryover stocks: The quantity of product remaining in storage at the end of the crop year. Cash receipts: The value of commodity marketings during the calendar year, irrespective of the year of production. For program crops, also includes net CCC loans (there are none for vegetables or potatoes). C.I.F. value: Cost, insurance, and freight). Terms of sale whereby the seller's (exporter) price includes the cost of the goods being sold and all transportation charges, including insurance expenses, to the destination point (importer). Cold storage: The quantity of product in refrigerated warehouses at a point in time. Constant 1996 dollars: Expression of value in terms of 1996 purchasing power. Frequently referred to as deflated or real dollars. Contract acreage: Area planted by agreement between processors and growers, generally at an agreed price and conditions, including quality. Cwt: Abbreviation for hundredweight, a unit of measure equal to 100 pounds. Dual-purpose vegetables: Commodities that may be sold in fresh or processing markets. Dual commodities include asparagus, broccoli, cauliflower, and celery. Dumping: The sale of a commodity in a foreign market at less than fair market value. Fall season: Production period that mainly spans October to December. Farm weight: The raw or unprocessed weight of a product in fresh form prior to any processing; also called fresh-weight, field-run, or orchard-run. F.A.S. value: (free alongside ship). A price quotation that includes all costs of transportation and delivery of the goods to the dock alongside the ship (within reach of the ship's tackle). F.o.b. shipping-point price: The average, unweighted unit price received by the shipper or grower-shipper primarily for sales in carload or truckload quantities, but also including mixed loads. Fresh-cut vegetables (fresh-processed): Fresh-market vegetables that have been trimmed, peeled, or cut (but not heated) into a completely usable fresh product, which is marketed in a prepackaged form. Examples include bagged salads, baby peeled carrots, and broccoli florets. Fresh-market vegetables: Sold primarily as fresh; includes artichokes, asparagus, green lima beans, snap beans, broccoli, Brussels sprouts, cabbage, cantaloupes, carrots, cauliflower, celery, sweet corn, cucumbers, eggplant, escarole and endive, garlic, radishes, honeydews, lettuce, onions, bell peppers, spinach, tomatoes, and watermelons. Includes fresh-cut products such as baby carrots and bagged salads. Grower-packer return: Price received by the grower-packer. Marketing spread: The difference between the retail price and the grower-packer return. Pack: The quantity of fresh or processed product placed in containers (e.g., cans). Generally refers to the output of a processing industry (e.g., frozen pack of broccoli). Pay weight: The weight of useable product delivered to the processing plant and paid for at the rates specified by contract. Per-capita use: A measure of commodity disappearance on a per-person basis. Equal to total supply (production plus imports plus beginning stocks) less uses (exports, shrink and loss, seed use, ending stocks) divided by total U.S. population (including military). Processing vegetables: Commodities sold primarily to processors; include (but not limited to) green lima beans, snap beans, beets, cabbage, sweet corn, cucumbers, chile peppers, green peas, spinach, and tomatoes. Product weight: The weight of a product in its final packaged form. For example, the weight of the contents of a can of tomato paste. Pulses: A term used collectively for dry edible beans, dry edible peas, and lentils. Season-average price: Average price received by the grower-packer (grower-shipper), weighted by quantity marketed. Shipments: Quantity of produce marketed from major production areas. Short ton: A unit of measure equal to 2,000 pounds. A metric ton is equal to 1,000 kilograms or 2,204.62 pounds. Specialties: A term for commodities (limited here to vegetables) not generally considered to be mainstream. Examples include jicama, dasheen, and cassava. May also include "minor vegetables," such as okra, chile peppers, pumpkins, and tropical vegetables. Spring season: Production period that mainly spans April to June. Summer season: Production period that mainly spans July to September. Value of production: The value of commodities produced during the crop year. Calculated as production times marketing-year-average price. May be equal to cash receipts when the crop year for a vegetable runs from January through December. Winter season: Production period that mainly spans January to March. END_OF_FILE