VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES--SUMMARY July 26, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Per Capita Vegetable Use Down 1 Percent in 1994 U.S. per capita use of 56 selected vegetable and melon categories fell 1 percent in 1994 to 425 pounds (farm-weight basis). Reduced use of fresh and processing vegetables outweighed increases in potato and sweetpotato use. Per capita use of fresh vegetables (excluding potatoes, pulses, and mushrooms) declined 1 percent to 140 pounds. Declining use (as measured at the farm gate) of lettuce, carrots, and cauliflower outweighed gains for sweet corn, bell peppers, onions, and watermelon. With the increased popularity of various ethnic foods during the 1990's, per capita use of garlic averaged 1.9 pounds during 1993-95, up from 1.1 pounds in 1987-89 and 0.4 pounds in 1970-72. Disappearance of vegetables for freezing and tomatoes for processing also declined in 1994. As a result, use of vegetables for processing declined 3 percent to 127 pounds per person. Per capita use of vegetables for freezing (excluding potatoes) fell 5 percent to 22 pounds due to lower use of sweet corn, carrots, and miscellaneous commodities. With production increasing, per capita use of sweet potatoes in 1994 rebounded from the previous year's low to 4.6 pounds per person. Potatoes are the largest U.S. vegetable crop. Based on preliminary data, per capita use of potatoes in all forms rose nearly 3 percent in 1994 to 141 pounds. This was the sixth consecutive annual increase in potato use and was the largest per capita use of potatoes since 1935. Most of the gain was due to the second consecutive surge in potatoes for freezing, particularly french fries. Potatoes destined for manufacture into frozen products account for more than one-third of all potatoes produced. Use of fresh-market potatoes has grown slowly for each of the past 4 years and now stands at 50 pounds per person--up 9 percent from the low of 1990. Overall potato use is forecast to stabilize in 1995 as production is expected to fall slightly. With slightly smaller production, french fry use is expected to peak, and fresh use could decline. Per capita use of dry edible beans totaled 7.5 pounds in 1994, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Pinto beans accounted for nearly half of the U.S. total at 3.6 pounds per person (the same as a year earlier), followed by navy beans with 19 percent at 1.4 pounds per person (up 17 percent). Red kidney beans (0.5 pounds) and Great Northern beans (0.4 pounds) are the next most popular dry bean classes. In early 1995, wholesale prices for processed vegetables averaged just below a year ago. Contract acreage for the five leading processing vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, snap beans, green peas, cucumbers) was estimated to have declined 1 percent to 1.51 million acres. Acreage increases for tomatoes, green peas for freezing, and cucumbers were outweighed by reductions for snap beans and sweet corn. Despite less-than-ideal weather so far this year, per acre yields for most crops may average close to last year's strong levels, and total processing output probably will average just below last year's record. The first estimate of 1995 contract production for green peas indicates a 1-percent increase from 1994 to 496,970 short tons, as a 3-percent rise in harvested area outweighs a 2-percent decline in per acre yield. Assuming favorable weather to support a later-than-normal harvest this season, contract tomato production is expected to increase 5 percent to a new record-high, as continued strong yields combine with a 4-percent rise in acreage. In 1994, U.S. vegetable production (including potatoes, sweet potatoes, and dry beans) increased 10 percent from the previous year to a record high. While production of fresh-market vegetables and melons increased just 1 percent, output of vegetables for processing (up 22 percent), potatoes (up 7 percent), dry edible beans (up 33 percent), and sweet potatoes (up 21 percent) each increased significantly. The record-large 1994 processing vegetable crop of 18.4 million short tons resulted from increased acreage and per acre yields. Production increased for 10 of the 13 processing vegetable crops, with declines noted for asparagus, carrots, and cauliflower. Excellent growing weather resulted in record per acre yields and production for processing sweet corn and tomatoes. In 1994, production of 25 selected fresh-market vegetables and melons (excluding potatoes, dry beans, and sweet potatoes) increased 1 percent to 392 million cwt. Among the major crops, rising per-acre yields lifted production for sweet corn (12 percent), onions (10 percent), bell peppers (9 percent), and watermelon (6 percent). U.S. summer- and fall-season potato growers expect to harvest slightly less area during the fall of 1995. After five consecutive increases, the 1995 potato crop is projected to be slightly smaller than a year earlier, with poor weather early in the season expected to lead to lower average yields. In 1994, the first year NAFTA was in effect, the United States continued to be a net exporter (in dollar value) of vegetables and melons. Exports increased 10 percent from 1993 to $2.7 billion, while imports rose 9 percent to $2.3 billion. U.S. imports from Mexico rose 6 percent and accounted for about 50 percent of total vegetable and melon imports. Although the United States remains in deficit in fresh vegetable, melon, frozen vegetable, and mushroom trade, substantial trade surpluses continue in canned vegetables, potatoes, dry edible beans and peas, and seed. Fresh vegetable imports (excluding potatoes and mushrooms) totaled $1.1 billion in 1994, up 9 percent from a year earlier. Fresh tomato import value totaled $344 million, up 6 percent from a year earlier but 9 percent below the 1990 peak. Tomato import volume fell 5 percent to 8.7 million cwt--about 20 percent of total domestic supply. The import share of U.S. supply has been slowly trending downward since the 1970's when imports were about 25 percent of supply. During the first 4 months of 1995, tomato import value totaled 9 percent higher than the same time a year ago. The net value of potato trade (export value minus import value) surged to $410 million, up 46 percent from the previous year. The value of 1994 exports jumped 31 percent to a record $572 million. The value of potato imports increased 5 percent to $162 million, after jumping 53 percent in 1993. On a fresh-weight-equivalent basis, the volume of all potato exports totaled about 30 million cwt, up 24 percent from 1993. Frozen products accounted for 12.8 million cwt (up 21 percent) while potato chips accounted for nearly 5 million cwt (up 41 percent). For the first 5 months of 1995, export volume and value continued to run well ahead of a year earlier. Retail prices for processed vegetables rose 4 percent in 1994, as frozen vegetables increased 4 percent and canned vegetables rose 5 percent. Retail prices for fresh-market vegetables (excluding potatoes) averaged 2 percent above those of a year earlier. Higher average retail prices for potatoes, tomatoes, and carrots outweighed lower average prices for lettuce, celery, and cabbage. In 1995, retail prices for fresh-market sales will likely increase, mirroring the increase expected in grower prices. During the first half of 1995, vegetable supplies and prices were subject to more variation than usual due to storms in Florida and California. Printed copies of the Vegetables & Specialties Yearbook Situation and Outlook report will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information contact Gary Lucier (202) 219-0117 or John Love (202) 219-0388. The text of the report will also be available electronically. For details, call 202-720-9045. END-END-END