HDR1011800201801116951500 VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES--SUMMARY November 16, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Potato Crop Lower, Prices Up The U.S. fall-season potato crop is estimated to be 402 million cwt, down 5 percent and second to last year's record high. Harvested acreage was slightly below a year earlier and per-acre yields declined 5 percent. Yields were down in all major production areas, with the most notable declines in North Dakota (13 percent), Maine (12 percent), Colorado (11 percent), and Washington (down 6 percent). A combination of poor spring weather, untimely frosts, and scattered incidences of blight contributed to reduced output in the major Western States. A combination of the smaller fall crop and continued strong demand from processors will keep fresh-market potato prices above a year earlier through next spring. The first estimate of 1994 per capita potato use totaled 140.8 pounds in 1994, 3 percent higher than in 1993 and the highest since 1935. Most of the increase was for processing potatoes. While fresh-market potatoes fell 1 percent to 49.1 pounds per person, processing use surged 5 percent to 91.7 pounds. The majority of the increase in processing use went for frozen french fries and other frozen products which surged 9 percent to a record 59.4 pounds. For 1995, per capita potato use is forecast to remain near 140 pounds. The 1995 U.S. onion crop, forecast at 60.6 million cwt, is 3 percent lower than 1994's record crop. The summer storage crop (excluding California, producing mostly for dehydration) is forecast down 2 percent at 34.7 million cwt, although area for harvest is estimated up 2.5 percent. Average yields in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington were off from a year earlier, due to a late start in planting and cool early-season weather. The summer storage crop is harvested and stored for distribution during the fall and winter months. Retail produce prices increased faster than all food in 1995. The all-food index of retail prices increased only about 3 percent in 1995. Fresh vegetable prices outpaced fresh fruit prices, averaging about 12 percent, compared with fruit at 9 percent. This winter (December through March), retail vegetable prices are expected to average about the same as a year ago. After an 18-percent surge in prices last winter, retail prices remained high throughout most of 1995. This winter, higher potato prices are expected to be offset by an easing of retail prices for several salad vegetables. Contract production of the 4 major vegetables for processing (tomatoes, sweet corn, snap beans, and green peas) is estimated down 2 percent from last year's record high to 16.2 million short tons. Processors contracted fewer acres of sweet corn and snap beans but more acres for tomatoes and green peas. Although green pea and tomato production rose, less-than-ideal growing weather reduced per-acre yields and output of processing sweet corn and snap beans. Despite weather-delayed plantings in northern California, increased acreage is expected to boost U.S. contract tomato output close to a record-high 11.6 million short tons. About 10.9 million contracted tons are expected from California where average per-acre yields declined 4 percent to 33.3 tons--still the second highest on record. Strong domestic and export demand for processed tomato products continue to drive the processing tomato market. Since 1988, per capita domestic use of processed tomatoes (on a fresh-weight basis) has trended higher and is forecast to reach a record 79 pounds in 1995. This is the fresh-equivalent of over 20 billion pounds of tomatoes. Much of the rising demand since the late 1980's is due to increased foodservice demand for tomato products used in preparing popular products such as pizza, pasta, and salsa. U.S. dry bean production is forecast at 30.6 million cwt, 5 percent above 1994's large crop. Dry bean acreage rose 3-percent and per-acre yields increased slightly. However, much of the increase in U.S. average yield can be attributed to a 31-percent increase in Michigan, while many other States experienced lower yields. Some areas planted late which kept the crop 2 to 3 weeks behind normal and hard freezes in Mountain and Plains States damaged crops in late September. With expected larger supplies, average dry bean prices are likely to continue below a year earlier. Mushroom sales volume increased 4 percent in 1994/95, setting a record at 789 million pounds with agaricus accounting for 99 percent of the crop. Specialty mushroom sales volume fell 5 percent after 5 years of continuous growth. Within the specialty group, Shiitake sales fell 6 percent to 5.25 million pounds, and Oyster fell 12 percent to 1.71 million pounds. Mushroom volume is forecast up 1 percent for 1995/96, with most of the growth expected in Pennsylvania. U.S. exports and imports of fresh and processed vegetables continued to expand in 1995. Through August, the export value of vegetables, potatoes, pulses, and other vegetables increased 18 percent, while imports increased 13 percent. At these rates, total 1995 exports could reach $3.2 billion and imports $2.7 billion. Fresh vegetable export volume is likely to be lower in 1995 than 1994, due to the supply disruptions in Florida and California; but higher prices are expected to increase total export value 13 percent. Exports of canned and frozen vegetables (excluding potatoes) are projected to increase 18 percent to $648 million, while imports increase 9 percent to $626 billion. Potato exports--mainly frozen, chipped, and dehydrated potatoes--are projected to increase 28 percent to $731 million, far exceeding imports of $161 million. Pulse exports are projected to increase 16 percent to $325 million in 1995. Through August, U.S. exports of canned vegetables (including tomatoes) increased 15 percent to $298 million. Most of the gain in exports is due to greater movement of sweet corn (up 23 percent), cucumber/gherkin pickles (up 54 percent), and vegetable mixtures (up 34 percent). Sweet corn, which accounts for 30 percent of canned vegetable exports, increased due mostly to larger volumes sold in the United Kingdom, Germany, and South Korea. During the same period, total canned vegetable imports declined 13 percent to $212 million as U.S. firms purchased fewer offshore artichokes (down 41 percent) and green peas (down 56 percent). Across the board increases led U.S. frozen vegetable exports (excluding potatoes) to rise 14 percent to $92 million during January to August 1995. Sweet corn, which accounts for 38 percent of frozen exports, rose 5 percent to $35 million as volume increased nearly 7 percent. Exports to Japan, which accounts for 63 percent of the U.S. total, rose 3 percent while volume sent to Mexico was cut in half by the peso devaluation. Imports of frozen vegetables declined 15 percent to $144 million during the January to August period. With the exception of broccoli, which accounts for 47 percent of frozen vegetable imports, most frozen import categories declined. Broccoli imports rose 10 percent to $68 million, with more than 90 percent coming from Mexico. Imports now account for 55 percent of frozen broccoli supply compared with just 7 percent in 1980. This issue of the Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook Report contains a special article entitled, "Chilean Horticultural Exports and the U.S. Horticulture Industry". Contact Gary Lucier at (202) 219-0117 or John Love at (202) 219-1268 for more information. End end end