VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES November 22, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES Situation and Outlook is published twice a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. VGS-270. Please note that this release contains only the text of VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES--tables and graphics are not included. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contents Summary Industry Overview Fresh Vegetables Cash Receipts Processing Vegetables Potatoes Sweet Potatoes Pulses Mushrooms Special Article U.S. Share of Asian Fruit and Vegetable Import Markets List of Tables Situation Coordinator Gary Lucier Voice (202) 219-0117 Fax (202) 501-6782 E-mail:GLucier@econ.ag.gov Statistical Assistant Brenda Toland Principal Contributors Gary Lucier (202) 219-0117 Charles S. Plummer (202) 219-0717 Doyle Johnson (202) 501-7159 John Love (202) 219-1268 Editor Martha Evans Graphics, Table Design, and Layout Wynnice P. Napper ADP Support Patricia Bailey and Stacy Jones Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Summary released November 14, 1996. Summaries and text of Situation and Outlook reports may be accessed electronically; for details, call (202) 219-0515. The Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook is published semi-annually (April and November) and supplemented by a yearbook (July). Summary The first estimate of the U.S. fall potato production is 448 million hundredweight (cwt), up 11 percent from last year, and 5 percent above the previous record set in 1994. Increased harvested acreage (up 3 percent from last fall) and record high yields (up 7 percent to 359 cwt per acre) combined to produce the fifth record fall crop in the last 6 years. With abundant supplies, both grower and retail potato prices are expected to average well below a year earlier. Since potatoes are the most heavily weighted item in the consumer price index (CPI) for fresh vegetables, lower potato prices are expected to be an important moderating influence on retail vegetable prices well into the coming year. Fresh vegetable retail prices are expected to increase 2 to 4 percent in 1997 after declining in 1996. Per capita use of fresh potatoes may decline to around 49 pounds in 1996 as a result of the smaller 1995 fall crop and lower fresh utilization in the 1995/96 marketing season. However, fresh use will likely rebound in 1997 to around 51 pounds per person with the record 1996 potato crop and lower retail potato prices. Fresh potatoes account for about 25 percent of total fresh vegetable use in the United States. After a summer of strong production and weak prices for many fresh-market vegetables and melons, reduced fall fresh vegetable acreage is expected to lead to slightly lower supplies and stable to somewhat higher retail prices going into the winter quarter. Fall (primarily October to December) acreage for harvest for the major fresh vegetables and melons was estimated to be 2 percent less than a year ago but 6 percent larger than 2 years ago. Most of the decline occurred in Florida, where growers cut fall area 10 percent to 40,400 acres. California, which accounts for 59 percent of fall vegetable and melon acreage, increased area 1 percent to 114,100 acres. Preliminary data indicate that fresh tomato supplies were largely unchanged during the first 3 quarters of 1996 compared with a year ago. A drop in domestic output (as indicated by reduced shipments) was offset by larger imports. With exports little changed, per capita domestic use averaged about the same as a year ago. During the current fall season, tomato acreage for harvest in the major producing States is estimated at 24,400 acres, 16 percent less than a year ago. Average yields would suggest smaller supplies from domestic sources this fall, especially from Florida where acreage is down 27 percent. This large reduction in Florida's acreage has been associated with strong competition from extended shelf life, vine-ripe, and greenhouse/hydroponic imports. About half of fall tomato area is in California, where acreage is expected to increase 4 percent this fall. The dumping petition filed against Mexico by concerned fresh-market tomato growers this past April was resolved through a negotiated agreement. Unless modified by the parties involved, the net price (after rebates, discounts, etc) of tomatoes imported from signatory producers/exporters in Mexico will not be less than the reference price of $5.17 per 25 pound box ($0.2068 cents per pound). The agreement is designed to ensure that there is no undercutting or suppression of fresh-market tomato prices in the United States. It is not designed to directly limit the volume of tomatoes imported from Mexico. In 1996, vegetable and melon (including potatoes, pulses, and mushrooms) grower cash receipts are expected to decline. Most of the decline likely occurred on the fresh-market side as lower average grower prices outweighed slightly larger volume. Higher returns are expected for processing vegetables, pulses, and mushrooms. In 1995, grower receipts jumped 8 percent to a record high $14.8 billion powered by improved returns for lettuce, potatoes, carrots, and melons. This was the fifth consecutive annual increase in nominal dollar grower receipts. Vegetables and melons accounted for 15 percent of U.S. 1995 crop cash receipts, the same as a year earlier. Production of the four major processing vegetables rose about 3 percent this year, with the processing tomato crop near a record high. With U.S. tomato product prices down and supplies from several other countries short, export opportunities should remain strong through next season. Wholesale prices for canned vegetables averaged 5 percent above a year earlier through the first 3 quarters of 1996 and, with the exception of tomato products, are likely to remain above a year earlier through next spring. On the other hand, frozen vegetable stocks are adequate and prices have remained just above year-earlier levels and will likely remain flat into next spring. In 1996, U.S. sweet potato acreage for harvest is estimated to increase 3 percent. This is the third consecutive annual acreage increase, an event that has not happened since 1932. The season-average grower price has remained over $14 per cwt for 3 consecutive years, and the estimated value of the sweet potato crop was $204 million in 1995, the highest nominal dollar value on record. Shipping point prices in late October 1996 were running near year-earlier levels. Per-acre yields the past 2 years have been above trend (1970-95), and crop conditions were termed average for most of the current season. Thus, if trend yields are assumed (152 cwt per acre) in 1996, production would increase only 2 percent from a year earlier and sweet potato prices would likely again average at or above $14 per cwt. This would likely lead to a fourth consecutive increase in acreage during 1997. During the 1996/97 season, the U.S. dry edible bean market is characterized by a 13-percent smaller crop, reduced stocks, and higher prices. Total 1996 dry bean production is estimated at 27.0 million cwt. Lower production of navy, pinto, and black beans is likely and will outweigh larger output of Great Northern, red kidney, and garbanzo beans. North Dakota is again the leading producer of dry beans with 26 percent of the crop. Looking ahead, with reduced output and lower stocks this year, prices will likely rise through 1997 and signal increased area and production in 1997. Total volume of mushroom sales in the United States during the 1995/96 production year (July 1-June 30) totaled 787 million pounds, down fractionally from the previous year's record of 789 million pounds. Total value of mushroom sales decreased slightly to $758 million. Growers received an average of 96.3 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous season. The number of growers continued to fall as the count for 1995/96 decreased to 357, down from 371 last season. Industry Overview Per Capita Use Projected Up in 1996 Although final data will not be available until next spring, current estimates place U.S. per capita use of vegetables and melons (including potatoes, pulses, and mushrooms) up 1 percent to about 437 pounds (fresh-weight equivalent) in 1996. Fresh vegetable and melon use is expected to rise slightly to 147 pounds per person, paced by increases for melons and tomatoes. Within the fresh sector: o Lettuce use is expected to rise slightly to 27.6 pounds as romaine lettuce use continues rising. o Broccoli use is expected to hit 3.3 pounds--up slightly from a year ago. o Watermelon use, powered by rising production and lower prices, is expected to hit 16 pounds per person for the first time since 1963. o Tomato use likely rose for the fifth consecutive year to 16.8 pounds after bottoming out in 1991. Processing vegetables likely accounted for 133 pounds per person in 1996, up 3 percent from a year earlier. o Vegetables for canning rose about 3 percent to 109 pounds per person (28.7 billion pounds). o Vegetables for freezing (excluding potatoes) rose 1 percent to 22.8 pounds per person (6.0 billion pounds). o Tomatoes for canning, which account for three-fourths of all canning vegetable use, rose 4 percent to 78.5 pounds per person. o Per capita use of broccoli for freezing has been relatively flat since 1988 at 2.4 pounds. Per capita use of potatoes (on a fresh-weight basis) for calendar year 1996 is estimated at 142 pounds for all uses, 3 percent higher than during 1995. Although per capita use for most potato categories has been relatively flat for the past few years, potato use for frozen products like french fries has been a driving force in the industry. o Per capita use of potatoes for freezing has risen about 9 pounds during the 1990's to an estimated 59 pounds (29.5 pounds in finished product weight). However, the strong upward trend in frozen potato use seems to be leveling the past 3 years, as growth in use by the domestic food service industry slows. o Per capita use of fresh potatoes may fall to around 49 pounds in 1996 as a result of the smaller 1995 fall crop and lower fresh utilization in the 1995/96 marketing season. Fresh use will likely rebound in 1997 with the large 1996 crop and lower retail potato prices. Dry edible bean use is expected to total 7.5 pounds per person in 1996, down 5 percent from a year ago. o Pinto beans are the leading class and are expected to remain flat at about 3.3 pounds per person. o Navy beans will also remain near 1995's 1.5 pounds per person. o Great Northern beans have been relatively consistent during the 1990's at 0.4 pounds. Mushroom use has been trending higher over time but will remain stable in 1996 at 3.9 pounds per person, with just over half of the crop consumed fresh. Fresh Vegetables Fall Volume Down, Higher Prices Expected After a summer of strong production and weak prices for many fresh-market vegetables and melons, reduced fall acreage is expected to lead to slightly lower supplies and stable to somewhat higher retail prices going into the winter quarter. Fall (primarily October to December) acreage for harvest for the major vegetables and melons was estimated to be 2 percent less than a year ago but 6 percent larger than 2 years ago (table 10). Most of the decline occurred in Florida, where growers cut fall area 10 percent to 40,400 acres. California, which accounts for 59 percent of fall vegetable and melon acreage, increased area 1 percent to 114,100 acres. Assuming average yields this fall, larger fall supplies of lettuce, sweet corn, and carrots are expected, while somewhat lower supplies are anticipated for fresh-market tomatoes, cucumbers, broccoli, and cauliflower. Given these projected supplies, plus a record large potato crop and a large storage onion crop, the net effect on the consumer price index (CPI) for fresh vegetables may be small. Higher tomato prices will largely be offset by lower potato, lettuce, and carrot prices, leaving overall retail prices close to year-earlier levels. Potatoes are the most heavily weighted item in the CPI for fresh vegetables, followed by tomatoes, lettuce, and onions. Thus, large potato supplies and the attendant lower potato prices will help moderate the CPI for fresh vegetables through next spring. Fresh-Market Tomato Supplies To Decline Preliminary data indicate that fresh tomato supplies were largely unchanged during the first 3 quarters of 1996 as compared with a year ago. An apparent drop in domestic output was offset by larger imports (up 22 percent). With exports little changed, per capita domestic use averaged about the same as a year ago. During the current fall season, acreage for harvest in the major tomato producing States is estimated at 24,400 acres, 16 percent less than a year ago. Average yields would suggest smaller supplies from domestic sources this fall, especially from Florida where acreage is down 27 percent. Florida growers have dramatically reduced acreage due to strong competition from extended shelf life, vine-ripe, and greenhouse/hydroponic imports. Additional uncertainty among Florida growers concerning the outcome of the anti-dumping case against Mexico may have also restrained acreage. California, like Mexico, can produce extended shelf-life varieties and is expected to harvest 4 percent more acreage this fall. The Tomato Market Is Changing Grower and retail prices for fresh-market tomatoes are expected to average above a year ago at least through early winter. Part of the expected increase in retail prices is due to a small but growing shift in the composition of tomatoes displayed in supermarkets. Increasing amounts of higher-priced greenhouse and hydroponically grown tomatoes are being marketed, especially in affluent areas. The claim of improved taste of these tomatoes appears to be the dominant marketing concept behind the expansion. In addition, some consumers seem to favor the tomatoes-sold-on-stem marketing approach which is standard in much of Europe. The supply of these higher priced alternatives is expanding from both import and domestic sources. Imports from greenhouse/hydroponic-producing countries like the Netherlands, Canada, and Israel increased 87 percent in the first 8 months of 1996 compared with a year ago. These tomatoes accounted for about 7 percent of imports through August compared with 4 percent a year ago. In addition, new or expanded domestic greenhouse/hydroponic operations in several States are beginning production this fall and winter with further expansion planned. Also, in Canada, firms in the Leamington, Ontario area are planning to expand greenhouse production of tomatoes and cucumbers for export to the United States. Greenhouse and hydroponic fresh tomatoes are still a small part of the tomato market--likely the equivalent of about 1 pound per person. However, the ever increasing supply will eventually result in retail prices coming down from the current $2 to $3 per pound--which is two to three times more than field-grown tomatoes. Lettuce Acreage Up Head lettuce growers expect to harvest 3 percent more acreage this fall than a year ago, with acreage up in both California and Arizona. Shipments of iceberg lettuce during the first 8 months of 1996 were 2 percent greater than a year earlier and are expected to continue this pattern into the winter season. Given a steady fall market, lettuce growers are expected to maintain acreage around last year's levels this winter, despite averaging break-even prices last winter. However, most winter-season lettuce shippers are in the market year-round and need to supply their retail, wholesale, and food service customers all year. While this lends some stability to an inherently erratic market, it also affords grower/shippers the opportunity to offset losses in one season with gains in another. This was likely the case in 1995 when the farm value of the 1995 head lettuce crop soared 55 percent to $1.4 billion on the strength of higher average spring and summer prices. Per capita use of head lettuce was down in 1995 due to lower production caused by the unusual spring floods in the Salinas Valley. Even though imports more than doubled, they still amounted to less than 1 percent of supply. Per capita use (as measured at the farm level) of head lettuce has been on a slow downtrend since peaking in 1989. Per capita use totaled 21.6 pounds in 1995 and with shipments up only 2 percent through the third quarter, use is expected to remain near year-ago levels for 1996. An offsetting upward trend in the lettuce industry is the steady growth of romaine and leaf lettuces. Combined per capita use of these lettuces was 6.0 pounds in 1995 and further growth is expected for 1996. In 1989, use of leaf and romaine totaled 3.6 pounds. Like head lettuce, the 1995 value of these crops soared 39 percent to $524 million. Onion Crop Down, Prices Up With last year's record large crop, shipping-point prices for fresh onions have remained at average to below average during the 1995/96 season. The price situation was aggravated by a 12-percent increase in imports during the first quarter of 1996. Mexico (up 11 percent to 232 million pounds), Canada (up 127 percent to 16.4 million pounds), and Peru (up 254 percent to 9.3 million pounds) accounted for most of the increased volume. However, the industry also saw a 25-percent decline in export volume during the first quarter of 1996. Exports in 1995 were unusually strong due to a short crop the previous year in Japan. However, with an improved crop this past year, U.S. exports to Japan fell 43 percent. At the same time, fresh-market onion exports to Russia increased 280 percent to 0.9 million pounds during the first quarter of 1996. Onions are an important vegetable crop in the United States, with close to $700 million in farm value. Per capita use of fresh-market onions was a record 17.7 pounds per person in 1995--up from 15.1 pounds in 1990 and 11.4 pounds in 1980. Some of these fresh-market onions are sent to freezers for manufacture into products such as onion rings. Based on pack statistics, it appears that close to 2 pounds per person (fresh-basis) are consumed as frozen onion products. In California, substantial quantities are also dehydrated into flour and chopped pieces for use as condiments and in further food manufacturing. Per capita use of these onions (on a fresh-equivalent basis) totals a rather steady 1.3 pounds. Fall Cantaloupe Comeback Partly Thwarted Increased supplies of cantaloupes were initially expected this fall as acreage intended for harvest increased 14 percent. Larger acreage was due partly to continuing increases in the Imperial Valley of California and in western Arizona. Rising acreage in these two areas follows several seasons of little or no plantings caused by the devastating effects of severe whitefly infestation. A combination of stringent field management practices and improved pest control measures since 1991 has vastly reduced the whitefly problem in these areas. However, a new soilborne fungus reportedly resulted in lower- than-expected melon yields in the Imperial Valley this fall. This resulted in tightened supplies this fall and left prices during October and November about a tenth above a year earlier. Despite the problems this fall, annual cantaloupe production will likely continue to trend higher for 1996, after bottoming out in 1991. In 1995, per capita use of cantaloupes totaled 9.9 pounds--the second highest in the past 50 years. With shipments running around 10 percent larger for 1996, per capita use of cantaloupes likely exceeded 10 pounds. With larger supplies during the peak May through September period this year, grower prices for cantaloupe averaged below a year earlier. *** BOX ITEM *** Tomato Dumping Case Resolved With Suspension Agreement Effective November 1, the U.S. Department of Commerce suspended the antidumping investigation involving fresh-market tomatoes from Mexico. The negotiated agreement between the Commerce Department and Mexican producers/exporters established a minimum price (reference price) covering the majority of fresh-market tomatoes exported from Mexico to the United States. The dumping petition was filed against Mexico by concerned fresh-market tomato growers this past April. The initial period for the negotiated suspension agreement will run from November 1, 1996 through September 30, 1997, with the agreement and investigation expected to be terminated no later than November 1, 2001. During this period, unless modified by the parties involved, the net price (after rebates, discounts, etc) of tomatoes imported from signatory producers/exporters in Mexico will not be less than the reference price of $5.17 per 25-pound box ($0.2068 cents per pound). This initial reference price represents the lowest average monthly price for fresh-market tomatoes from Mexico in the United States during the base period (1992-94). Based on information available in early November, the reference price refers to the first handler (an importer or broker) F.O.B. price in Nogales, San Diego, or Laredo and will be reviewed semiannually. This price will apply to each entry for all types of fresh-market tomatoes (e.g. common round vine-ripe and mature green, plum, pear, and cherry) except so-called greenhouse-grown cocktail tomatoes. The reference price for boxes not averaging 25 pounds will be determined by U.S. Customs based on formulas established in the agreement. The intent of the agreement is to ensure that there is no undercutting or suppression of fresh-market tomato prices in the United States. It is not designed to directly limit the volume of tomatoes imported from Mexico. Fresh market tomato import volume is expected to rise again this year, although at a slower pace than in the past year. During January through August, import volume was up 14 percent from the same period in 1995. *** END OF BOX*** Cash Receipts Grower Receipts Record High in 1995 Powered by higher returns for lettuce, potatoes, carrots, and melons, grower cash receipts from the sale of vegetables and melons (including potatoes, pulses, and mushrooms) rose 8 percent to a record high $14.8 billion in 1995 (table 30). This was the fifth consecutive annual increase in nominal dollar grower receipts. Vegetables and melons accounted for 15 percent of U.S. crop cash receipts, the same as a year earlier. However, for 1996, vegetable and melon cash receipts are expected to decline. Although higher returns are expected for processing vegetables, pulses, and mushrooms, the fresh-market side will decline as lower average grower prices offset slightly stronger volume. California growers accounted for 39 percent of U.S. vegetable receipts in 1995, up from 37 percent in 1994 and an average of 34 percent during 1986-90. California vegetable and melon receipts rose 13 percent to $5.7 billion due to stronger fresh-market vegetable prices. Higher lettuce prices (particularly for iceberg and romaine) caused by weather-shortened production, accounted for about half of the increase in California's grower receipts. Iceberg lettuce receipts, which jumped 55 percent, was also the primary contributor to a doubling of Arizona's vegetable and melon receipts to $712 million. Together, California and Arizona accounted for 98 percent of total U.S. lettuce receipts. With fresh-market tomato production and receipts falling, Florida's vegetable and melon receipts declined 12 percent to $1.3 billion. Florida's share of U.S. vegetable and melon receipts continued to slip in 1995, totaling 8.6 percent compared with 10.5 percent in 1994 and 12.3 percent during the 1986-90 period. This decline is a direct reflection of the multi-faceted problems Florida growers face. During the past few years, hurricanes, freezes, the devaluation of the Mexican peso, urban sprawl, and increasing environmental pressure, have put significant economic strains on Florida's ability to produce vegetables and melons, especially during the critical winter season. Many of the immediate problems are transitory (weather, peso) and have been successfully dealt with several times in the past. Thus, recovery and growth in Florida vegetable receipts is expected to occur eventually, although little gain is expected for 1996. Processing Vegetables Processing Production Up Contract production of the four major processing vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, green peas, and snap beans) is estimated to have increased about 3 percent this year (most processing vegetables are produced under contract). Despite a 2-percent decline in contract acreage, snap bean output increased 13 percent to 0.76 million short tons because of strong per acre yields in Oregon, Michigan, and Illinois. Spurred by continued strong domestic and export demand, tomato processors expect a 5-percent increase in contract production to a record 11.7 million tons. Despite a cool, wet spring and excessive heat this summer in the Sacramento Valley, a record high yield of 35.5 tons was projected for the California processing tomato crop--the largest in the world. Contract output of green peas (down 16 percent) and sweet corn (down 2 percent) was estimated to have declined from a year ago. Wholesale Prices Up Wholesale prices (as measured by the Producer Price Index) for canned vegetables and juices averaged 5 percent above a year earlier during the first 3 quarters of 1996. Wholesale prices for major canned vegetables including green peas (up 11 percent), green beans (up 13 percent), and sweet corn (up 3 percent) averaged above a year earlier. Smaller supplies last summer in the face of consistent demand began to whittle inventories, resulting in steady increases in wholesale prices. During the spring, processors were forced to offer growers higher contract prices because of strong competing field crop prices. As a result, wholesale prices for canned vegetables may not decline much through next spring. However, prices for tomato products, some of which have dropped substantially since last spring, will likely remain below a year earlier due to the large crop this year. These price breaks will likely be limited somewhat by continued strong world demand for tomato products which should provide a boost to U.S. processed tomato exports. Strong supplies kept wholesale prices for frozen vegetables (including potatoes) about even with a year ago during the first half of 1996. Wholesale prices for many of the major frozen vegetables, including sweet corn, green peas, and green beans averaged just above those of a year ago. With a bumper crop of fall potatoes anticipated and continued good supplies of most other frozen vegetables, overall wholesale frozen vegetable prices will likely remain weak into next year. Canned Vegetable Exports and Imports Up As one of the world's largest producers of canned vegetables, the United States is a net exporter of canned vegetables and continued to be so through the first 3 quarters of 1996. Because of increased sales of vegetable juices and tomato products, the value of U.S. canned vegetable exports rose 5 percent to $274 million during the first 8 months of 1996. Tomato product exports (paste, sauces, ketchup) rose 3 percent to $121 million and the value of canned sweet corn exports rose 2 percent to $84 million. However, most of the gain in canned vegetable exports came from the vegetable juice (excluding tomato juice) category. Vegetable juice export value jumped 70 percent to $6.6 million with both average prices and volume increasing. Vegetable juice exports to Japan rose 133 percent to $2.6 million while sales to Canada increased 64 percent to $3.1 million. Although exports were up, the volume of canned vegetable imports also increased--rising 8 percent during the first 8 months of 1996 to $194 million. Most of the increase was in water chestnuts and vegetable juice mixtures. Imports of water chestnuts, 90 percent of which come from China, increased 62 percent to $25 million. Imports of vegetable juice mixtures jumped from $0.1 million during the first 7 months of 1995 to $6.1 million during the same period in 1996. Nearly all the increase was from Canada which accounts for 99 percent of vegetable-juice-mixture imports. For tomato products, a combination of falling U.S. prices and limited world supplies caused U.S. imports to decline 12 percent. This situation is expected to continue into 1997 as domestic supplies remain plentiful and wholesale prices remain low. In fact, these factors favor increased U.S. tomato product exports well into next year. The United States exports about 6 percent of its canned vegetable supplies while importing about 2 percent. Canned vegetable exports have trended higher, especially during the 1990's, moving from 2 percent of supply in the mid-1980's to 6 percent in 1995. Imports of canned vegetables, on the other hand, peaked in 1989 at 5.3 percent of supply before declining during the 1990's to 2.3 percent of supply. The engine for change in canned vegetable trade has been the processed tomato trade. Expansion and increased efficiency in the U.S. processed tomato industry and trade liberalization in Japan and other Far East markets fueled explosive growth in processed tomato exports and also led to the concurrent decline in tomato product imports. For frozen vegetables (excluding potatoes), about 7 percent of supply is exported while imports account for about 9 percent. Excluding the high-growth frozen potato sector, frozen export growth has been slow. Since 1980, frozen vegetable imports have risen much faster than exports due primarily to the movement of the broccoli processing industry into Mexico. Imports accounted for about 1 percent of supply in 1980 but grew rapidly throughout the 1980's. For frozen potato products including french fries, imports are expected to gain an increasing share of the U.S. market in the next few years as Canadian potato processors continue to step up their exports of frozen french fries to U.S. markets. Frozen potato imports now account for 4 percent of supply while exports account for 9 percent. Potatoes Record Fall Yields Produce Bumper Crop The November USDA estimate of U.S. fall-season potato production is 448 million hundredweight (cwt), up 11 percent from last year, and 5 percent above the previous record set in 1994. Increased harvested acreage (up 3 percent from last fall), and larger yields (up 7 percent to a record 359 cwt per acre) combined to produce the fifth record fall crop in the last 6 years. Record yields are the result of an excellent growing season throughout most of the country, with the East, Central, and West all realizing significant gains. In the five Eastern States, fall potato production was estimated at 35 million cwt, 15 percent above a year ago. Maine harvested its largest crop in 11 years as a result of a 27-percent increase in per acre yields (at 280 cwt/acre). In the eight Central States, production was 107 million cwt, with larger crops than a year ago in all States except Michigan and Ohio. The 10 Western States realized a record output of 306 million cwt. Oregon, Colorado, Idaho, and Washington had increases in production of 29, 21, 6, and 12 percent respectively, from a year ago. Although the overall quality of potatoes was generally good at the time of harvest, storability may be a problem in some areas. Problems in available storage space, as well as pockets of late blight, water rot, and net necrosis (the result of potato leaf roll virus) have surfaced in various production regions. The net affect of these factors on overall potato utilization is uncertain, but the record crop should ensure good market availability. Higher Stocks, Lower Prices Expected in 1996/97 Marketing Year With record domestic production this fall, stocks of fresh fall potatoes will likely average above a year ago throughout the marketing season. Cold storage holdings of frozen potato products on October 1 were estimated to be up 2 percent from year-earlier levels, to a record high for the month. In addition to a strong domestic supply of potatoes, Canadian and European output is up this year as well, making expansion in U.S. potato and potato product exports uncertain (see subsequent section). On the domestic demand front, continued growth in the general economy will underpin food service demand for the next several months. Also, lower prices should spur an increase in fresh-market retail movement. Despite this expansion in utilization, abundant potato supplies are expected to weigh heavily on prices. Given these large supplies, the 1996/97 season-average price for potatoes will likely be between $4.25 and $5.25 per cwt, compared with $6.77 per cwt in 1995/96. Utilization Down in 1995/96 After 6 consecutive years of increased potato production from 1989-1994, and 4 consecutive years of record production (1991-1994), the smaller crop in 1995 led to the first decline in the total quantity of potatoes sold since the 1988/89 marketing season (table 7). The 5 percent decline in production led to a 21-percent increase in the season average price. Despite the decrease in the quantity marketed compared with the previous year, good demand and strong grower prices helped sales value total nearly $2.8 billion, 10 percent above the previous sales record set in 1989. Although overall fresh and processing use declined in 1995 as a result of lower production and higher prices, much of the decrease was realized in the fresh market. Fresh market use was down 7 percent from 1994, and processing use was down 2 percent. Use for potato chips was down 3 percent, while utilization for fries declined by 5 percent from 1994. Potatoes used for dehydrated products grew by 7 percent due partly to stronger export demand. Per Capita Use Flat Per capita use of potatoes (on a fresh-weight basis) for calendar 1995 is estimated at 138 pounds for all uses, 2 percent below the 1994 level (table 8). Per capita use for most potato categories has been relatively flat for the past several years. Most notably, the strong upward trend in frozen potato consumption seems to be leveling as growth in use by the domestic food service industry slows. Per capita utilization of fresh potatoes may fall slightly in 1996 as a result of the smaller 1995 fall crop and lower fresh utilization in the 1995/96 marketing season. Fresh use was estimated at 50.7 pounds in 1995, the highest since 1980. However, with a record crop in the fall of 1996, and likely lower prices in the coming year, domestic consumption of fresh potatoes, as well as frozen and dehydrated potato products, could rise in 1997. Lower prices, combined with a high-quality product, may encourage retailers and the food service industry to expand use of potatoes and potato products. Recent success with dehydrated potato snacks (such as potato crisps and baked chips) may be a factor in the slight decline in traditional potato chip consumption. World Production Likely To Rise, Trade Outlook Uncertain in 1996/97 The first estimate of 1996/97 Canadian potato production is 86.2 million cwt, 2 percent above last year's record crop. The gain comes despite a difficult harvest in Prince Edward Island (PEI), where heavy rains and snow delayed harvest. PEI output is estimated to be down about 9 percent from a year ago, but was outweighed by substantial gains in Manitoba (up one-third to 16.5 mil cwt) and New Brunswick. The decrease in PEI production, combined with strong production in the United States, could mean significantly less imports of fresh potatoes from Canada in the coming year. During the 1995 crop year (September 1995-August 1996), imports of fresh potatoes from Canada totaled 7.9 million cwt, 89 percent above the average of the previous 3 crop years. U.S. exports of fresh potatoes to Canada in crop year 1995 were 4.6 million cwt, just 2 percent below the average of the previous 3 years. Traditionally, much of the imported fresh potatoes from Canada have come from PEI, and have been distributed primarily along the East Coast of the United States. Stiff competition from PEI in eastern markets was particularly noticed by shippers throughout the United States last season. Decreased U.S. production and higher prices, combined with record Canadian production, provided the economic incentive for expanded PEI fresh potato exports to the United States. The surge of potatoes from Canada into U.S markets last season has led to an evaluation of United States/Canada potato trade issues by the United States Government. The main potato trade issues past and present have revolved primarily around 1) the perceived negative effects of Canadian trade on U.S. fresh potato prices, and 2) unfair trade practices. Product quality issues and perceived unfair subsidy advantages of Canadian growers have been concerns raised by producers in Maine. Another concern of various U.S. producers focuses on bulk shipment restrictions. These restrictions prohibit commercial shipments of fresh potatoes in containers over 50 kilograms unless an easement has been granted by the Canadian Government. This season, due to the smaller size profile in the PEI crop, at least one Canadian processor has received a bulk shipment easement to import potatoes from Maine. European potato production in 1996 is also expected to be higher than a year ago, providing some uncertainty for U.S. exports of processed potato products to the European Union (EU). A very small European crop in 1994 provided additional markets for many U.S. potato products (particularly french fries, potato chips, and dehydrated potato products) during a year of record supply in the United States. As a result, exports of most potato products surged above trend during the 1994/95 marketing season (September-August). Improved European production in 1995 drastically reduced European demand for U.S. frozen french fries and dehydrated potato products during 1995/96, but imports were still well above 1992 and 1993 crop year levels. Potato chip exports to Europe rose in 1995/96 despite the improvement in European production. If European production rises to near 1992 or 1993 levels, U.S. exports to Europe are likely to fall even further in the coming year. However, a large drop in exports to Europe does not mean a drop in overall U.S. potato product exports if processors can continue to expand markets in Japan and Southeast Asia. Since crop year 1992, exports of french fries to Japan have risen 46 percent to 405 million pounds (product weight) in crop year 1995. Exports of fries to Southeast Asia during this period have risen 125 percent, to 106 million pounds. In crop year 1995, U.S. exports of frozen french fries accounted for approximately 3.7 percent of all potatoes sold from the crop, up from 2.4 percent in crop year 1992. Sweet Potatoes Acreage Up, ProductionLikely Up in 1996 In 1996, U.S. sweet potato acreage for harvest is estimated to have increased 3 percent (table 9). This is the third consecutive annual acreage increase, an event that has not happened since 1932. Despite increased area and strong production, the season-average grower price has remained over $14 per cwt for 3 consecutive years and the estimated value of the sweet potato crop was $204 million in 1995, the highest nominal dollar value on record. Shipping point prices in late October 1996 were running around year-earlier levels. Per-acre yields the past 2 years have been above trend (1970-95) and crop conditions were termed average for most of the current season. Thus, if trend yields are assumed (152 cwt per acre) in 1996, production would increase only 2 percent from a year earlier and sweet potato prices would likely again average at or above $14 per cwt. This could lead to a fourth consecutive acreage increase in 1997. Per Capita Use Flat in 1996 According to Economic Research Service (ERS) projections, 1996 per capita use of sweet potatoes remained about the same as a year earlier at 4.5 pounds. Total domestic food use was estimated at just under 1.2 billion pounds, the second highest since 1985 (1.3 billion pounds). Since the late 1980's, the long-term decline in per capita sweet potato use appears to have halted with a hint of an increasing trend during the past 3 to 4 years. A combination of increased promotion and heightened consumer interest in nutrition may be partly responsible for the recent boost in use. Unlike some other vegetables, sweet potatoes do not have widespread menu exposure in the food service industry. Thus, as an increasing share of the consumer food dollar was being spent on away from home meals since the 1960's, sweet potatoes were left behind. This undoubtedly contributed to the declining per capita use trend during the 1970's and most of the 1980's. However, there now appears to be growing consumer interest in the culinary arts (cooking classes). If this leads to increased in-home meal preparation, further opportunities for sweet potatoes may be forthcoming in the next decade. Pulses U.S. Dry Bean Crop Lower During the 1996/97 season, the U.S. dry edible bean market will be characterized by a 13-percent smaller crop, reduced stocks, and higher prices. Total 1996 dry bean production is estimated at 27.0 million cwt. Lower production of navy, pinto, and black beans is likely and will outweigh larger output of Great Northern, red kidney, and garbanzo beans. North Dakota is again the leading producer of dry beans with 26 percent of the crop. Looking ahead, with reduced output and lower stocks this year, prices are expected to rise through 1997 and signal increased area and production in 1997. The United States is the fifth leading producer of dry edible beans in the world (behind China, India, Brazil, and Mexico) and U.S. harvested area for dry beans has been slowly trending upward over the past 15 years. In 1996, area for harvest was down 10 percent from a year ago due to low market prices for most major bean classes the previous season, poor weather in some places, and very strong prices for crops like corn and soybeans, which compete with dry beans for area. Despite poor weather this spring, average dry bean yields fell just 3 percent shy of last year's record high. Yields were particularly strong in important States like North Dakota, Colorado, and Nebraska, but much lower in Michigan, which suffered through a very cold, wet spring. Overall, U.S. yields averaged just above trend in 1996. Prices To Rise As harvest drew to a close in early November, the U.S. aggregate grower price was $23.50 per cwt--22 percent above a year earlier. With lower supplies in the market this season, average grower prices for dry edible beans are expected to remain about a fourth above a year earlier through next spring. If export demand is more robust than anticipated, further advances in dry bean prices are likely. As usual, price movement will vary by bean class this season. Pintos: Several peaks in pinto bean dealer prices over time have been associated with either strong export activity or a short crop. Per unit prices have been trending upward by only about 1 percent per year since 1970. For a mature market like pintos, productivity growth (increasing per acre yields) has generally been pacing cost increases, allowing nominal dollar market prices to change slowly. For the next several months, smaller carryin stocks and lower production should result in reduced pinto bean supplies. Assuming stronger exports to Mexico in 1996/97, nominal dollar pinto bean prices are expected to average around long-run trend levels, which is about $27 per cwt. Navy: With fairly consistent demand, any significant change in navy bean production is met with a significant change in prices, in the opposite direction. For example, after bottoming out with the big crop in 1991, prices rose during 3 consecutive years of flat production, peaking in the 1994/95 season at $31.63 per cwt. After dropping to about $21.50 per cwt in response to the large 1995/96 crop, navy prices moved higher this summer with the prospect of a smaller crop this year. This season, with production lower and exports to the United Kingdom (U.K.) continuing strong, dealer prices are expected to average around long-run trend levels ($28/cwt). Great Northerns: Long-run price trends for Great Northern beans are very similar to navys with an upward trend of 1.7 percent per year. Since bottoming out in 1991 with the loss of the Iraqi market, Great Northern prices have increased each year and have exceeded long-run trend levels. The season-average price for 1995/96 is estimated to have been about $42 per cwt, up 14 percent from the previous season. However, this season, production of Great Northerns was likely higher than a year ago, and with stocks building slightly, dealer prices are expected to average below a year earlier. Exports Down in 1996 As a net exporter of dry edible beans, the United States is a major player in the world dry bean market, ranking second in terms of export volume behind China. The top U.S. markets include the United Kingdom, Japan, Algeria, and Mexico. The United States holds about half of the U.K. import market for dry beans. However, based on total dry bean movement during the first 3 quarters of 1996, plus the prospects for declining supplies and higher prices for the rest of the year, dry bean export volume is likely to remain at or below year-earlier levels for the next several months. During the first 3 quarters of 1996, U.S. dry edible bean export volume declined about 5 percent. Volume reductions were realized for small red, pinto, navy, and baby lima while increases occurred in blacks, large limas, and kidneys. Although volume was down during the first 2 quarters of calendar 1996, volume jumped during the third quarter as sales to Mexico rose under the duty-free quota certificates auctioned this past spring. Black bean exports to Mexico totaled 30 million pounds through August (compared with none in 1995), while pinto bean exports are also up substantially this year. Although navy bean exports to the U.K. (the leading market) were up slightly from a year ago, exports to the rest of the world were down with most of the reduction due to sharply lower concessionary sales to Algeria. Export Markets Are Important Over the past 5 years, an average of 16 percent of U.S. dry bean supplies have been exported. In 1995, about 8.32 million cwt--19 percent of supply--was exported and estimates suggest that this could rise to 21 percent in 1996. This is relatively high when compared with fresh vegetables at 9 percent, frozen vegetables at 7 percent, and canned vegetables at 6 percent. Navy, lima, black, and red kidney beans count on exports to absorb a fifth or more of supplies, while a quarter of Great Northern and small red supplies are shipped overseas. About 16 percent of pinto supplies are exported with substantial increases in the past during crop shortfalls in places like Mexico. On the other side of the ledger, imports accounted for just 2 percent of U.S. dry bean supply in 1995 and were most important in the garbanzo bean market, where 25 percent of supply is imported. Domestic Use To Fall in 1996 Close to 2.1 billion pounds of dry beans were used domestically in 1995--the first time that use exceeded the 2-billion-pound mark. However, in 1996, U.S. domestic use is expected to fall slightly as production of most classes are cut back. Dry edible bean use peaked during World War II at 11 pounds per person before beginning a long-term decline that bottomed out in the early 1980's. Despite increasing in 1995, per capita use of dry beans appears to have reached a plateau in the last few years. Average per capita use appears to have flattened out since 1993 at around 7.5 pounds. At this point, there is no way to know if this is a temporary pause or a true peak. Past history shows a similar peak in the mid-1980's before the surge in dry bean use in the late 1980's into the early 1990's. With large supplies and lower prices in 1995, per capita dry bean use is estimated to have risen about 8 percent to 7.9 pounds. However, use will likely decline in 1996 with reduced output and higher prices. Pinto beans continue to account for the largest share of dry bean use--about 40 percent. Three-Fourths of Dry Beans Sold in Supermarkets A cursory analysis of domestic dry bean sales suggests that somewhere around three-fourths of dry edible beans are sold through retail channels with the remainder moving through the food service industry. In 1995, supermarket sales of canned (excluding soups) and dry-bagged beans totaled about $925 million and would likely exceed $1 billion with soups included. The data suggest that the equivalent of about 15 million cwt of dry edible beans were sold through supermarkets, of which 2.5 million cwt were in dry-bagged form. Dry Pea and Lentil Output Drops According to data from the USA Dry Pea and Lentil Council, dry pea and lentil production declined 53 percent in 1996 as yields fell heavily in the Palouse region of Idaho and Washington (table 47). A late spring and dry summer led to poor yields and accounted for most of a 55-percent cut in regular green pea production, with Idaho's yields nearly cut in half. This was the smallest green pea crop since 1980. A combination of low yields and reduced acreage resulted in the smallest lentil crop since 1990. Output of regular lentils was 51 percent below a year ago. Acreage of dry peas and lentils (mainly yellow peas) continues to expand in North Dakota, a relatively new entrant to the industry. North Dakota growers are finding favor with legumes such as dry peas in their crop rotations. With the short crop, grower prices are expected to average above year-earlier levels through next summer. Also, early season shipments under government bids (Public Law-480 sales) for green peas and lentils are running well above a year ago. Government purchases for feeding programs can account for one-quarter to one-half of production in a given year. Despite relatively strong carryover supplies this season, prices for green and yellow peas began to exceed year-earlier levels in July. Grower prices for U.S. number one dry green peas were $12.30 per cwt in early October, compared with $9.00 a year earlier. Lentil prices are up for the second consecutive year with levels similar to those seen during the short-crop 1992 season ($20-$22 per cwt). Per capita use of dry peas and lentils was estimated to be about 0.5 pound in 1996--little changed over the past 20 years. Given the smaller 1996 crop and an expectation for higher prices in the year ahead, per capita use is expected to decline slightly in 1997. Mushrooms Mushroom Production, Prices Steady Total volume of mushroom sales in the United States during the 1995-96 production year (July 1-June 30) totaled 787 million pounds, down fractionally from the previous year's record high of 789 million pounds. Total value of mushroom sales decreased slightly to $758 million. Growers received an average of 96.3 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous season. The number of growers continued to fall as the count for 1995/96 decreased to 357 growers, down from 371 growers last season. Pennsylvania led all States in production with 353 million pounds, down slightly from last season. Pennsylvania growers supplied 45 percent of all Agaricus mushrooms grown in the United States. California ranked second in production with 131 million pounds, down 3 percent from last season. Agaricus mushroom production totaled 778 million pounds, down fractionally from the previous season. Agaricus accounts for about 99 percent of all mushroom production and the remainder of 1 percent is Shiitake, Oyster, and other exotic mushrooms. Of the 778 million pounds of Agaricus production, an estimated 25 million pounds are Brown mushrooms which include Portobelo and Crimini mushrooms. The average grower price for Agaricus was 93.5 cents per pound, down slightly from the previous season. However, the average fresh price for Agaricus was $1.09, up 4 cents per pound. Volume of sales for commercially grown specialty mushrooms (Shiitake, Oyster, and other exotics) in the 1995-96 season was 8.84 million pounds, up 8 percent from the 1994-95 production. However, the average price received by growers decreased 15 cents per pound to $3.40. The volume of fresh mushroom sales continued to increase, with sales exceeding 537 million pounds while the volume processed decreased 4 percent to 241 million pounds. The average fresh price rose 4 cents to $1.09 per pound, but the processing price declined to 57.9 cents per pound compared with 68.4 cents the previous season. The average yield continued to increase, reaching 5.75 pounds per square foot of growing area compared with 5.59 the prior season. For the year ahead, growers indicated intentions to increase area by 1 percent to 137 million square feet. Given trend yields, production is likely to increase close to 2 percent in 1996/97. Special article. U.S. Share of Asian Fruit and Vegetable Import Markets Boyd M. Buxton Abstract The U.S. market share for fruit, vegetable, and nut imports into the 13 leading countries in Asia and Oceania are calculated from United Nations trade statistics and illustrated graphically for 1994. The U.S. market share of some fruit and vegetable categories is well over 90 percent in some Asian countries but zero for others. The 1985 to 1994 trend in U.S. market share is presented for selected commodity categories in each of 13 Asian countries. Results indicate significant gains and declines in U.S. market share for some commodities in selected markets while it is flat for other commodities. Keywords: U.S. exports, Asia, fruit trade, fruits, vegetable trade, market share. Introduction Higher consumer incomes, advances in transportation technology, reductions in trade barriers, and rising populations, have all contributed to increased world trade in fruit, vegetables, and edible nuts. According to official U.S. export data, value of U.S. exports of fruit, vegetables, and nuts rose from $1.6 billion in 1976 to $8.5 billion in 1995. These exports represented about 7 percent of total U.S. agricultural exports in the late 1970's, over 15 percent in the early 1990's, and reached a record 18.1 percent in 1994 (table A-1). Asia has become a relatively more important destination for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and nut exports, accounting for 21 percent of the $1.6 billion in exports during 1976 but almost 38 percent of the $8.5 billion in exports during 1995 (table A-1). This article calculates the 1994 U.S. market share of fruit, vegetable, and nut imports into major Asian markets and estimates the linear trend, if any, in U.S. market share from 1985 to 1994. The United Nations (UN) trade statistics report total imports by importing market by origin, including the United States. It is thereby possible to examine the United States and "the rest of world" market shares in each importing country or market. More detailed information on U.S. competitors in Asian markets are presented in a recent ERS report. ------------- 1/ The UN import values are measured at importing ports (Cost, Insurance, and Freight or CIF price) and, therefore, include exporting, transportation, and importing costs, but excludes tariffs and duties. ------------- Changes in market share provide insight into the competitive position of the United States in Asia. It should be noted that annual market shares reported in this paper do not reflect the within year seasonal production and trade patterns of many fresh fruit and vegetables. The United States would directly compete with alternative suppliers when their production and shipping seasons overlap. Therefore, changes in market share for some seasonal fresh fruit or vegetable commodities may not be a good indicator of the U.S. competitive position. The United States Accounted for 37 Percent of Asia's Imports in 1994 The UN trade statistics for 1994 indicate that 13 leading Asian countries accounted for over 90 percent of the total Asian imports. These countries imported over $8.1 billion worth of fruit, vegetable, and nut commodities and products in 1994, with the United States accounting for 37 percent or $3 billion. However, the U.S. market share varies widely from country to country and from one commodity category to another. The U.S. market share approached 100 percent for some commodities in some Asian countries but was zero for other commodities and countries. Taiwan, a leading U.S. market, is excluded because its trade is not reported by the United Nations. Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore Are the Top Asian Markets Japan accounted for almost $4.3 billion or 57 percent of all fruit, vegetable, and nut imports to the 13 leading Asian countries in 1994 (figure A-1). The United States represented over 43 percent of Japan's total imports that year. Hong Kong, the second leading destination, imported about $1.1 billion of fruit, vegetables, and nuts in 1994, with the United States accounting for about 43 percent, or over $470 million (figure A-1). Singapore imported $723 million, with the United States accounting for about 20 percent of the import market. India, the Republic of Korea, Australia, and Malaysia round out the top 7 importing markets in Asia during 1994, all with more than $324 million of fruit and vegetable imports (figure A-1). In 1994, the United States accounted for 47 percent of Korea's imports and about 20 percent of the imports to Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Indonesia. Although total imports of fruit, vegetables, and nuts were relatively small, the United States had over 55 percent of the imports into Macau, Thailand, and the Philippines, but less than 2 percent of those to Sri Lanka. Exports from the United States and the Rest of the World to Specific Asian Markets Imports of the thirteen top Asian markets are ranked by value of imports of specific commodity categories within the fruit and vegetable groups and the United States share is identified (figures A-2 to A-14). Japan -- The United States accounted for about 96 percent of Japan's total orange and tangerine imports and 91 percent of its lemon and grapefruit imports in 1994 (figure A-2). The United States also accounted for over 40 percent of Japan's imports of fresh fruit, edible nuts, dried fruit, and flour of fruit or vegetables. The linear trend in U.S. market share from 1985 to 1994 was significantly down for five commodity categories to Japan: fresh grapes, lemons and grapefruit, oranges, flour of fruit or vegetables, and dry leguminous vegetables (table A-2). For the same period, the United States gained market share for four commodity categories: fresh fruit, fruit temporarily preserved, edible vegetables (fresh or dry), and other fresh vegetables. No significant increase or decrease in market share was observed for the other commodity categories. Hong Kong -- The United States accounted for 43 percent of Hong Kong's total fruit and vegetable imports in 1994 and over 40 percent of its imports of oranges, apples, grapes, dried fruit, juice, and fresh lemons and grapefruit (figure A-3). The U.S. market share in Hong Kong significantly increased for apples, dried fruit, juice, other fresh vegetables, and simply preserved vegetables from 1985 to 1994 (table A-2). The U.S. market share declined for lemons and grapefruit, oranges, and other fresh fruit. The U.S. share of other commodity categories remained about flat over the 1985 to 1994 period. Singapore -- Although the United States accounted for less that 17 percent of Singapore's total fruit and vegetable imports in 1994, Singapore was still the third leading market in Asia for the United States. In 1994, the United States accounted for over 40 percent of Singapore's fresh grapes and dried fruit and about 38 percent of the fresh apple and simply preserved vegetables imported (figure A-4). The U.S. market share of Singapore's imports significantly increased for dried fruit, fresh fruit, preserved fruit and nuts, edible nuts, and other fresh vegetables over the 1985 to 1994 period (table A-2). The U.S. market share significantly declined for fruit and vegetable juice and oranges. Other Asian countries -- The total fruit, vegetable, and nut imports into other Asian countries and the U.S. share in 1994 are presented in figures A-5 to A-14, while the estimated trend over the 1985 to 1994 by country and commodity category is reported in table A-2. List of Tables Table 1. U.S. vegetable industry: Area, production, value, unit value, and trade, 1992-1996, 2000 2. Fresh vegetables: Percent of U.S. supply accounted for by trade, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990-96 3. Selected fresh vegetables: U.S. trade, 1994-96 4. U.S. onions: Harvested area and production, 1994-96 5. Value of U.S. processed vegetable trade, 1995-96 6. Potatoes: State acreage and production of fall crop, 1994, 1995, and indicated 1996 7. U.S. potatoes: Utilization by crop year, 1990-95 8. Potatoes: U.S. per capita utilization, by category, 1985-96 9. Sweet potatoes: Acreage harvested, 1990-94 average; 1995; and indicated 1996 10. U.S. fresh vegetables: Harvested area, by seasons, for selected crops, 1994-96 11. Representative wholesale prices for selected fresh-market vegetables and melons in Chicago, 1996 12. Fresh vegetables, including potatoes: Monthly retail price index, 1986-96 13. Fresh vegetables: Monthly average prices received by U.S. growers, 1992-96 14. Commercial vegetables and potatoes and dry edible beans: Monthly average index of prices received by U.S. growers, 1975-96 15. Selected fresh vegetables: U.S. shipments, by quarters, 1995 and 1996 16. Fresh vegetables: Quarterly trade volume, 1994-96 17. Selected fresh vegetables: U.S. export volume and value, by selected country, January-September, 1994-96 18. Frozen vegetables: Percent of U.S. supply accounted for by trade, 1980, 1985, 1990-96 19. Supermarket sales, of selected processed vegetables, 1989-95 20. Processing vegetables: Contract acreage, yield, and production, 1991-93 average, 1994, 1995, and indicated 1996 21. Selected frozen vegetables: Carryover, pack, seasonal supply, and shipments, 1991-96 22. Processed vegetables: Monthly index of wholesale and retail prices, 1986-96 23. Canned vegetables: Quarterly wholesale price trends, 1989-96 24. Frozen vegetables: Quarterly wholesale price trends, 1992-96 25. Frozen vegetables: October 1 cold storage holdings, 1989-96 26. Quarterly producer price index, pickles and pickle products, 1980-96 27. Processed vegetables: Quarterly wholesale price indexes, 1994-96 28. Canned vegetables: U.S. quarterly trade volume, 1994-96 29. Frozen vegetables: U.S. quarterly trade volume, 1994-96 30. Vegetable cash receipts: Leading States, 1986-90 average, and 1991-95 31. Potato cash receipts: Leading States, 1986-90 average and 1991-95 32. Dry bean cash receipts: Leading States, 1986-90 average and 1991-95 33. Potatoes: Seasonal acreage, yield, and production, 1994, 1995, and indicated 1996 34. Potatoes and pulses: Monthly average prices received by U.S. growers, 1990-96 35. Fresh potatoes: Monthly and annual average retail price index, 1986-96 36. Retail potato prices: Fresh, frozen, and chips, 1985-96 37. Frozen french fries: Monthly and annual average producer price index, 1985-96 38. Potatoes: U.S. quarterly trade volume in fresh-weight equivalent, 1995-96 39. Frozen french fries: Monthly and annual U.S. exports, 1986-96 40. U.S. potatoes: Value of trade by product, January-September, 1992-96 41. Dry edible beans: Planted acres by class, 1991-93 average, 1994-95, and indicated 1996 42. Dry edible beans: Acreage harvested, 1990-94 average, 1995 and indicated 1996 43. Dry edible beans: Production, 1990-94 average, 1995, and indicated 1996 44. Dry edible beans: Quarterly wholesale prices by class, 1995-96 45. Dry edible beans: U.S. quarterly trade volume, 1995-96 46. Dry peas and lentils: Planted acreage, 1991-96 47. Dry peas and lentils: Production, 1991-96 48. All mushrooms combined: Number of growers, volume, and value of sales, 1987/88-1995/96 49. Mushrooms: U.S. quarterly trade volume, 1995-96 50. U.S. agaricus mushrooms: Production, price, and value, selected States, 1993/94-1995/96 51. Mushroom imports year to date, 1996 and 1995 52. Selected vegetable production in leading countries and world, 1980, 1985, and 1990-95 END_OF_FILE