VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES -- SUMMARY November 19, 1998 November 1998, VGS-276 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available 3-4 weeks following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Production Rises; Demand Strong The November estimate of U.S. fall-season potato production is 429 million hundredweight (cwt), up about 1.5 percent from last year. Harvested acreage was estimated to be 3 percent higher than a year ago, but overall per-acre yields fell to 352 cwt. because of hot summer weather in the Pacific Northwest. Season-average potato prices could strengthen in 1998/99 due to stronger demand from processors for domestic and export sales. Retail prices for fresh-market potatoes are expected to average slightly higher than a year earlier during the first 6 months of 1999. The possibility of large Canadian production could be a mitigating factor on price increases in the United States. This fall (primarily October to December), U.S. growers are expected to harvest 2 percent fewer acres of fresh-market vegetables and melons than a year ago. California and Florida account for 82 percent of the total harvested area of fall-season vegetables and melons (excluding summer non-storage onions and potatoes). Area in Florida is estimated down 2 percent from a year earlier, while California is about even with a year ago. Despite the small reduction in area, fresh vegetable supplies are expected to be adequate for the holiday season. Florida's fall tomato crop was delayed by unusually hot weather in September. As a result, October shipments were only about a third of year-earlier levels. With market volume down, October f.o.b. shipping point prices for tomatoes averaged about 60 percent above a year earlier. Prices began to moderate in early November as market volume increased. Fourth-quarter shipping point prices for fresh vegetables are expected to average below the highs of the previous year. Tropical Storm Mitch brought wind and heavy rains to portions of central Florida during the first week of November. Some Palm Beach County fall-season vegetables were reported to have received moderate wind and water damage, especially in the inland Everglades production area. Snap beans and radishes were damaged, with some fields requiring replanting. Radish shipping-point prices were more than double year-earlier levels the week after the storm. Elsewhere in the State, product quality of vegetables like tomatoes and eggplant was temporarily reduced and overall yield potential diminished. Strong winds caused some bloom loss for tomatoes and peppers, which may lead to reduced supplies and higher prices in December. Mitch also flooded cantaloup fields in Costa Rica and Honduras, which could result in higher cantaloup prices in January. With unusual weather delaying crops and reducing yields, 1998 retail prices for fresh vegetables and potatoes are forecast 10 percent above a year earlier. January to June prices averaged 15 percent above a year earlier, but July to December prices are expected to average 4 to 6 percent higher than the year before. Fourth-quarter retail prices are expected to average 2 to 4 percent above the previous year, due mostly to a record high for the month of October. Production of the four leading vegetables for processing (tomatoes, sweet corn, snap beans, and green peas) was estimated to be 1 percent lower in 1998 due largely to reduced yields. Per acre yields were below a year ago for tomatoes (down 7 percent), green peas (3 percent), and sweet corn (2 percent). Cool, wet weather in many areas slowed growth, increased disease pressure, and delayed harvest. Production for each of the two leading crops, tomatoes and sweet corn, is expected to decline 3 percent from a year ago. Snap bean (up 4 percent) and green pea (up 1 percent) output are each expected to rise. For 1998, wholesale prices for canned vegetables and juices are forecast to average 1 percent above a year ago. In the coming year, reduced supplies of tomato products and several other canned vegetables during the first 3 quarters of the year, will likely leave wholesale prices for canned vegetables and juices 2 to 4 percent above 1998. Wholesale prices for frozen vegetables are forecast slightly lower in 1998, with little change expected in 1999 due to high beginning stocks, slow exports, and lackluster domestic retail demand. Wholesale prices for dried and dehydrated vegetable products will likely average above year-earlier levels well into 1999 due in part to reduced garlic and onion crops in California. With the cool, wet spring damaging California crops, high garlic prices may attract a significant increase in garlic imports in the coming 6 months. In 1998, U.S. production of dry beans is estimated at 31.1 million cwt, up 7 percent. Most of the increase was likely due to pinto beans and black beans, based on higher acreage. Despite a larger crop this year, stronger export demand should help prevent a buildup of dry bean stocks. As a result, aggregate dry bean prices will likely remain at or above year-earlier levels. Combined with low prices for competing grains, this may signal increased dry bean area for 1999. Fresh agaricus mushroom sales continue to trend upwards, setting records in quantity sold and the total value of sales. During the 1997/98 marketing season, U.S. fresh sales totaled more than 621 million pounds, a 12-percent increase over the previous season. Fresh mushroom sales now account for 77 percent of all mushroom sales, the highest percentage on record. The value of grower fresh sales reached $670 million in the 1997/98 season, up 11 percent. The average price received by growers for fresh mushrooms was down slightly at $1.08 per pound. Printed copies of the Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook report will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information contact Gary Lucier, 202-694-5253. This issue contains three special articles. The first is entitled "Sweet potatoes: Increasing Popularity Benefits Growers and Consumers." The second is "Demand for Frozen Vegetables: A Comparison of Organic and Conventional Products." The third article is "Urban Influence and the U.S. Vegetable Industry." The text of the report will also be available electronically, for details call 202-694-5050. END_OF_FILE