VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES November 28, 2000 November 2000, ERS-VGS-282 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES is published three times a year (includes yearbook) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and graphics are not included. See supplemental data files in Lotus 123 (.WK1) format. Subscriptions to the printed version of the report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #SUB-VGS-4039, $30/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contents Page Summary Fresh Market Vegetables Processing Vegetables Potatoes Sweet Potatoes Dry Edible Beans Mushrooms Special Articles Factors Affecting Tomato Consumption in the United States Situation Coordinator Gary Lucier Voice: (202) 694-5253 FAX: (202) 694-5820 E-mail: GLucier@ers.usda.gov Statistical Assistant Brenda Toland Principal Contributors Gary Lucier (202) 694-5253 Charles S. Plummer (potatoes & sweet potatoes) (202) 694-5256 Editor Martha R. Evans Graphics, Table Design, and Layout Wynnice P. Napper Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Summary released November 16, 2000. The summary of the next Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook is scheduled for release in April 2001. Summaries and text of Situation and Outlook reports may be accessed electronically; for details, call (202) 694-5050. The Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook is published semi-annually (April and November) and supplemented by a yearbook (July). See back cover for subscription information. Summary Favorable weather, larger acreage, and record yields resulted in a record-large potato crop this fall. The November U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate of U.S. fall-season potato production is 463 million hundredweight (cwt), up 7 percent from comparable estimates of last year, and 2 percent above the previous record set in 1996. Increased harvested acreage (up 2 percent from last fall), and record yields (up 5 percent from last year to 388 cwt per acre) combined to push total U.S. potato production for all seasons over 500 million cwt for the first time. Strong yields this fall are the result of an excellent growing season throughout much of the country, particularly in the West and the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota. With a large crop also expected in Canada, an important potato import and export partner, U.S. grower prices could remain under pressure for much of the coming season. This fall (primarily October to December), U.S. growers intend to harvest 5 percent fewer acres of fresh-market vegetables and melons than a year ago. Reduced area reflects low shipping-point prices last fall and periodically this year. Fresh-market vegetable prices during the first quarter of 2000 were the lowest since 1986, because excellent yields and higher acreage led to oversupply. However, growers reacted to these low prices and those of 1999 by lowering acreage over the next three-quarters of 2000. The resulting reduction in market shipments helped fresh vegetable prices to rise in the spring. Shipping-point prices reached record-high levels during the summer as cool, wet conditions in Eastern States and erratic weather (temperature extremes, untimely rain) in California delayed harvests and reduced yields. The Economic Research Service forecast for the winter 2001 season (January-March) suggests fresh-market vegetable acreage will be reduced from a year earlier. With last winter's financial losses still fresh in their minds, growers and shippers have likely taken note of the positive effects that acreage reductions have had on market prices during the spring, summer, and fall seasons. With shipments expected to decline this winter, fresh vegetable shipping-point prices are likely to average above the lows experienced a year earlier. Per capita use of all vegetables and melons is forecast to reach a record 459 pounds in 2000--up 2 percent from 1999. Most of this gain will come from processed products and potatoes. Higher prices and reduced output could result in a slight decline (around 1 percent) in per capita use of fresh-market vegetables and melons for 2000. Fresh use (excluding potatoes, sweet potatoes, and mushrooms) is forecast to total about 165 pounds per person. Adding fresh-market potatoes, mushrooms, and all sweet potatoes would bring fresh vegetable and melon use to about 223 pounds in 2000--49 percent of total vegetable and melon use. Use of leaf and romaine lettuce, cabbage, bell peppers, asparagus, and watermelon is expected to rise, offsetting decreases for head lettuce, broccoli, carrots, and sweet corn. Contract production of the four major processing vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, green peas, and snap beans) is expected to decline 13 percent this year (most processing vegetables are produced under contract). Virtually all the decline is from tomatoes. Snap bean output is expected to increase 2 percent on the strength of record-high yields per acre. Contract output of sweet corn was largely unchanged from a year earlier, as record-tying yields were offset by acreage reductions made in response to low wholesale prices, particularly for canned corn. Contract output of green peas was up 8 percent, as acreage and yields each rose about 4 percent. Contract acreage planted for pickling cucumbers increased 4 percent, with acreage unchanged in Michigan, the leading State. Contract area accounts for about 80 percent of all cucumbers destined for pickling. According to delivery information from the California Tomato Advisory Board, 10.28 million tons of tomatoes (contract and open market) were delivered to processors in the State this season. Adding an estimated 0.5 million tons from other States would result in a total U.S. processing tomato crop of 10.8 million tons--down 14 percent from the record crop of 1999 and just above the 10.6 million ton average of the 1990's. Despite expected gains in domestic and export demand in 2000, inventory reductions were likely modest for most tomato products. With ample stocks this past year, wholesale prices for bulk tomato paste remained weak during 2000 and have exhibited little strength this fall now that harvest is completed. By the beginning of November, bulk (31 percent) paste prices remained around $0.32 per pound--down 15 percent from a year earlier. Although prices should strengthen from these levels, generally weak wholesale prices could keep a lid on production plans for the 2001 season. U.S. sweet potato growers intend to harvest 12 percent more area this fall, contributing to expected larger production and lower prices during the marketing season. Last year's production was hampered by damage from Hurricane Floyd, but no such disaster was seen this year. North Carolina, the largest sweet potato producing State, had a very good growing season and expects to harvest nearly 28 percent more acreage this fall, increasing production significantly from a year ago. Louisiana, the second largest sweet potato producer, also increased acreage this year (4 percent), but experienced high temperatures throughout much of the growing season. As a result, yields for the State will likely be below year-earlier levels. Sweet potato prices are expected to be lower this year, with early fall shipping-point prices 8 to 15 percent lower than a year ago in both Louisiana and North Carolina. Dry edible bean production is estimated to be 25.6 million cwt, down 23 percent from a year ago and the smallest crop since 1993. Reductions were noted in both area harvested (down 16 percent) and yield per acre (8 percent). Production declined in each of the major States, with the steepest drop in Michigan, which fell 34 percent, compared with 1999 when the State harvested its largest crop in 17 years. North Dakota, the production leader, reduced output 21 percent in response to burdensome stocks and low prices stemming from the harvest of back-to-back record and near-record crops in 1998 and 1999. Although beginning to show some strength, aggregate dry bean prices remained low ($15.30 per cwt in October, down 11 percent from a year ago) because of fully stocked market pipelines and slow exports for a few key bean classes. The Nation's 304 mushroom growers produced 867 million pounds of agaricus and specialty mushrooms during the 1999/2000 season--up 1 percent from the previous season. Agaricus mushrooms (white and brown types) accounted for 99 percent of the crop. The long-term movement favoring fresh over processing mushrooms continued, with fresh-market sales of agaricus mushrooms rising 2 percent to 669 million pounds and processing volume declining 2 percent to 186 million pounds--the lowest since the 1988/89 season. Processing volume last exceeded fresh in 1977/78 and accounts for less than 22 percent of the agaricus crop today. The popularity of agaricus brown mushrooms (Portobello and Crimini) continued to soar during the 1999/2000 season, with sales volume rising substantially to 67 million pounds. Fresh-Market Vegetables Fall Acreage Down, Prices Up This fall (primarily October to December), U.S. growers intend to harvest 5 percent fewer acres of fresh-market vegetables and melons than a year ago. Reduced area reflects low shipping-point prices last fall and periodically this year. Fresh-market vegetable prices during the first quarter of 2000 were the lowest since 1986 because excellent yields and higher acreage led to oversupply. However, growers reacted to these low prices and those of 1999 by lowering acreage over the next 3 quarters of 2000. The resulting reduction in market shipments helped fresh vegetable prices to rise in the spring. Shipping-point prices reached record-high levels during the summer as cool, wet conditions in Eastern States and erratic weather (temperature extremes, untimely rain) in California delayed harvests and reduced yields. In Florida, with the exception of torrential early October rains in southern areas and heavy rains along the west coast from Hurricane Gordon (September 17), damaging weather has largely been avoided this fall. With most fall crops in fair to good condition, normal yields are expected with the exception of the early (late Oct.-early Nov.) fall tomato and pepper crops, which suffered bloom drop from Gordon's wind and rain. California's fall weather has alternated from excessively hot and dry to cool and rainy. An early October rain and hailstorm caused several million dollars in damage to vegetable fields (mainly head lettuce) in the Huron area of western Fresno County. As a result, shipping-point prices for iceberg lettuce rose in late October before subsiding again in early November. The brief spring and fall lettuce deals in Huron (valued at $100 million) provide important supply links between the major coastal producing areas and the winter desert areas of California and Arizona. California (61 percent), Florida (24 percent), and Arizona (5 percent) account for the majority of fall-season vegetable and melon acreage. Reflecting the impact of financial losses over the past year, fresh-market vegetable and melon acreage in all three leading States declined, led by California (down 7 percent), Florida (4 percent), and Arizona (4 percent). Area for harvest of cool-season vegetables is expected to be 5 percent lower this fall as reductions in carrots (down 24 percent), celery (7 percent), and head lettuce (2 percent) outweigh larger plantings of broccoli (up 4 percent) and cabbage (5 percent). Area in warm-season vegetables and melons is expected to decline 8 percent this fall paced by bell peppers (down 26 percent), cantaloupes (22 percent), cucumbers (14 percent), and tomatoes (11 percent). Among the major warm-season crops, only sweet corn (up 17 percent) and snap beans (up 8 percent) will have increased area this fall. Shipping-point prices increased from the previous year last fall (October-December) for snap beans (up 34 percent) and sweet corn (up 10 percent)--providing the incentive for growers to increase area this fall. Consumption of fresh-market snap beans, a popular stir-fry vegetable, continues to ride a wave of popularity that began after the crop hit bottom in 1990. Consumption has doubled over the past 10 years, with per capita use reaching 1.9 pounds in 1999 and is expected to equal or exceed this level in 2000. Fresh-market tomato area (field-grown) is expected to decline 11 percent this fall as growers in both California (down 12 percent) and Florida (10 percent) cut back. Last fall (Oct.-Dec.), the shipping-point price for fresh-market tomatoes averaged $25.57 per cwt--the lowest since 1991. Last fall's price was down 40 percent from the previous year and 21 percent lower than the average for the decade, providing strong disincentives for planting tomatoes. This fall, shipping-point prices for tomatoes have remained well above those of a year earlier. This season, after a slow start, tomato yields were expected to be average as California's crop appeared to be normal and the primary fall-season producing areas along Florida's central West Coast largely escaped heavy storm damage this fall. California's fall weather was wetter than a year ago, with a cold snap near the close of the season in mid-November slowing growth. As they have for the past few years, U.S. field-grown tomatoes face increased domestic competition from hothouse varieties--largely on the retail side of the market. Although production data are not available, hothouse tomato shipments from both domestic and import sources are expected to continue strong despite the financial pressures facing some of the major firms. Onion Crop Smaller, Prices Recover The U.S. onion industry is in position to recoup some of the losses experienced with last year's record-large crop. The value of the onion crop declined 23 percent to $633 million in 1999, as the season-average price dropped 29 percent to $9.78--the lowest since 1988. This year, although all-season onion production was second only to 1999, the storage onion crop, which will provide most of the country's onions until next spring, was down 9 percent from a year ago. The crop was of generally good quality, which should reduce storage loss, especially in the major western producing areas. Export movement this fall has been termed good, and domestic shipments in September were 4 percent below the high levels of a year ago. This combination has added strength to U.S. prices, with shipping-point prices during October averaging 35 percent above the lows of a year earlier. Onion prices are expected to remain above the lows of a year ago through at least the first quarter of 2001. For the first 8 months of 2000, onion export volume was 16 percent above year-earlier levels. Exports to Hong Kong increased 35 percent and more than doubled to Japan and Mexico, outweighing reduced sales to Canada (down 3 percent) and South Korea (12 percent). Despite the smaller crop and higher prices this fall, strong world demand should keep onion exports running at or above year-earlier levels into 2001. With very low onion prices in the United States for the first 3 quarters of 2000, import volume dropped 21 percent. Larger volume from Canada (up 19 percent) was outweighed by reduced shipments from Mexico (down 25 percent), Chile (13 percent), and Peru (9 percent). However, with more attractive domestic onion prices this fall and winter, onion imports will likely increase. Summer Vegetable Acreage Down Vegetable and melon growers reduced harvested area 2 percent from a year earlier this past summer (July-Sept.). Growers were primarily reacting to low shipping-point prices during the summer of 1999--the lowest prices since 1994. California, accounting for 50 percent of this year's reported summer season area, reduced acreage 3 percent. With reported market volume (shipments) 9 percent below a year earlier, summer-quarter (July-Sept) vegetable prices averaged 13 percent above the lows of the past year. Reductions in area have brought supply into line with demand at higher prices, which will allow financially strapped growers and shippers to recover from losses experienced this past year. Market volume was below a year earlier for most major items during the summer quarter. Shipments of major vegetables such as tomatoes, bell peppers, carrots, lettuce, and celery were lower, while volume increased for snap beans, artichokes, and onions. Erratic weather conditions (cool and wet followed by hot and dry) during the season affected yields and harvest timing in many States, including California. Hot weather in the normally cool coastal growing areas of California accelerated the growth and reduced the quality of some leafy green crops. Market uncertainty caused by the combination of uneven growth, reduced acreage, and reports of increased pest and disease pressures in some States caused supply gaps and sustained shipping-point price spikes (and some troughs) for commodities such as iceberg lettuce this summer. With cool, wet conditions more prevalent this summer in Eastern States, planting of summer crops was delayed in important summer vegetable States such as New York, and yields were likely impacted in other States by greater disease and pest incidence. This was opposite the experience of a year ago when the East remained in the grip of drought for most of the summer. A cool, wet summer in the East, erratic temperatures in California, and reduced area allowed f.o.b. shipping-point prices for U.S. commercial vegetables and melons to average 8 percent above the extreme lows of a year earlier during the first 10 months of 2000. In 1999, average shipping-point prices were the lowest since 1994. During the first half of this year, price changes were evenly split between commodities experiencing increases and decreases. Prices were generally weakest during the first quarter (down 13 percent) when shipments were 9 percent larger than a year earlier. As market volume began to ease with acreage reductions and lower imports during the second quarter, fresh vegetable and melon prices began to improve--rising a tenth above a year earlier. With shipments continuing to decline during the third quarter, shipping-point prices leaped 28 percent to a record high for that quarter. After the first quarter of 2000, reduced acreage and variable quality kept many cool season vegetable shipments below a year earlier. Shipment volume was down 9 percent for celery during April to September and shipping-point prices rose 76 percent to over $22 per cwt. California's spring and summer coastal weather fluctuated at times from unusually hot to unusually cool and damp. The weather interfered with the growth of cool season crops like celery, lettuce, broccoli, and cauliflower in the Santa Maria and Salinas growing regions, which resulted in supply gaps and high (record-high for celery) shipping-point prices in May and June. The outlook for the winter season indicates that fresh-market vegetable acreage will likely be reduced 1 to 3 percent from a year earlier. With last winter's financial losses still fresh in their minds, growers and shippers will likely take note of the positive effects acreage reductions have had on market prices during the spring, summer, and fall seasons. Acreage is expected to fall for crops such as carrots, tomatoes, and bell peppers, outweighing increases for sweet corn, celery, and lettuce. Some winter vegetable growers in Florida's Dade County were forced to replant some early acreage following torrential rains in early October that washed out fields and flooded urban areas. Fields were dried out and replanted with crops that are now in good condition. Little market impact is expected, as only a small amount of acreage was in the ground at the time. With more attractive prices in U.S. markets this year, winter vegetable imports from Mexico are expected to increase after declining the past 2 years. This should leave winter vegetable supplies near average levels. With forecasts calling for a colder than normal winter in the East, hard freezes are potential threats to warm-season vegetable price stability. In the past decade, Florida freezes have occurred as early as late December. Mirroring higher shipping-point prices, retail prices for all fresh-market vegetables averaged 4 percent above those of a year earlier during the first 9 months of 2000. The most heavily weighted item in the fresh vegetable retail price index is potatoes, which rose 3 percent. With a record potato crop this fall, retail potato prices are expected to be a moderating factor in the fresh vegetable Consumer Price Index over the next 6 months. During 2001, assuming growers limit their acreage response to higher prices received in 2000, shipping-point prices for fresh-market vegetables are likely to average slightly less than those received this past year, with the highest prices expected during the first quarter. Weaker shipping-point prices during the remainder of the year should help limit any increases in consumer vegetable prices caused by increased marketing costs. Fresh Exports Strong During the first 8 months of 2000, fresh-market vegetable exports (including potatoes and melons) increased 13 percent from a year earlier to $901 million. Export values increased for a majority of fresh commodities, including broccoli (up 38 percent), celery (38 percent), tomatoes (22 percent), and leaf and romaine lettuce (28 percent), while cauliflower (down 17 percent), garlic (12 percent), and carrots (4 percent) declined. The value of U.S. fresh market exports to Japan rose 13 percent during the first 8 months of 2000, as a strengthening economy supported demand. With higher export prices, the value of exports to Canada increased 11 percent. However, increased volume helped exports to Mexico rise 56 percent. The share of fresh export value (through August) going to Canada fell to 76 percent--down from 77 percent a year ago and 79 percent in 1998. In general, exports to Europe have diminished because the euro continued to drop in value vis--vis the U.S. dollar, making U.S. goods more expensive in European nations. Fresh-market vegetable and melon imports increased 2 percent to $1.7 billion during the first 8 months of 2000. While the value of imports increased for chile peppers (up 125 percent), cucumbers (23 percent), and sweet (bell) peppers (22 percent), decreases were noted for garlic (down 50 percent), tomatoes (14 percent), and onions (11 percent). Imports from Mexico were unchanged and Mexico's share of the U.S. fresh vegetable import market continued to trend lower, dropping to 73 percent--down from 75 percent a year ago and 84 percent in 1995. Imports from Canada rose 20 percent, compared with a 7-percent gain a year ago and a 59-percent jump in 1998. Canada's burgeoning hothouse industry, led by tomatoes and bell peppers, is responsible for the majority of recent gains. Canada now provides 18 percent of U.S. fresh vegetable imports--up from 16 percent a year ago--with tomatoes and peppers accounting for two-thirds of that country's fresh vegetable exports to the United States. Celery Use Steady U.S. consumers used 1.8 billion pounds of celery in 1999. Although the figure fell during the last half of the 1990's, average per capita use of celery has remained relatively flat over the past four decades. Despite the recent drop, celery use averaged 7.1 pounds per person during the 1990's--the same amount recorded in the 1980's and just below the 7.2 pound average calculated for both the 1960's and 1970's. Looking further back, per capita use peaked at 9.1 pounds in 1946 before dropping back to 7.9 pounds the following year. Fresh-market celery shipments are relatively constant throughout the year, except for seasonal peaks during November and December. The holiday season heralds the peak of celery use in the United States, as Americans eat more celery on party platters, with vegetable dips, and in turkey stuffing. In the 1990's, January-to-October monthly celery shipments generally amounted to 7 to 8 percent of the annual total, with the lowest volume shipped in August (7 percent). However, reflecting the Thanksgiving holiday, volume rose to nearly 12 percent in November, then fell off slightly to 9 percent in December. December celery shipments were even higher in the 1980's (about 10 percent of the annual total), possibly reflecting changes from decade to decade in the main holiday dishes served in that month. Celery is sold largely in fresh form (including fresh-cut diced and sticks), with smaller amounts canned, frozen, and dehydrated. According to USDA's 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals, fresh celery, like most other foods, is largely consumed at home (76 percent). This reflects the wide variety of uses for celery at home, for example, as an ingredient and flavoring agent in main-course recipes, a component of green salads and of sandwich salad spreads, a dipping vegetable for parties, and a convenient snack item. In the away-from-home market, U.S. consumers most often eat celery in standard 'white tablecloth' restaurants (14 percent). Celery shippers have been able to carve only a small niche in the expanding fast-food market, which is responsible for just 4 percent of celery consumption. The United States has historically been and continues to be a net exporter of celery. In 1999, exports of fresh-market celery totaled $43 million, while imports were valued at $9 million. During the 1990's, an average of 12 percent of celery supplies were exported annually--a steady upward trend from 11 percent during the 1980's and 8 percent during the 1970's. In 1999, Canada, China/Hong Kong, and Taiwan were the largest importers of U.S. celery, accounting for 70, 15, and 7 percent of fresh-celery exports. The United States is the leading foreign supplier of celery to these countries. Steady, ample supplies from a relatively efficient domestic industry keep prices low and limit opportunities for exporting fresh celery to the United States. Despite this, import volumes have been trending upward since the late 1980's. In the 1990's, fresh imports accounted for 3 percent of celery consumption, up from 1 percent in the 1980's; fresh-celery imports doubled between 1989 and 1999. Ninety percent of the fresh celery imported by the United States comes from Mexico, and most celery imports enter the country during the winter months. The United States also imports $2 to $3 million of dried celery stalks annually, with the bulk coming from Chile and China. Fresh Cucumber Use Rising Per capita use of cucumbers has risen during each of the past four decades. Use of fresh and processing cucumbers totaled 10.3 pounds in the 1990's, up from 9.8 in the 1980's, 8.9 in the 1970's and 7.8 pounds in the 1960's. About 60 percent of cucumber consumption is in fresh form with the remainder in pickled products. Fresh-market use has accounted for all the growth over the past 20 years, because pickling use has been on a slow decline since peaking in 1976 at 6.1 pounds. Fresh use reached a record high 6.9 pounds in 1999-44 percent higher than 1989. According to the USDA's 1994-1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals, 85 percent of fresh cucumbers are consumed at home. In some ways, this may reflect limited uses for fresh cucumbers on mainstream restaurant menus. Fresh cucumber prices are generally higher January to April (because of limited domestic supplies) and lowest in June when supplies are available from many areas. The farm price (shipping-point) accounts for about 25 percent of the retail value for fresh cucumbers. Trade is an important component of the U.S. fresh-market cucumber industry. About 8 percent of fresh export volume was exported in the 1990's--virtually the same as the 1980's. However, export share has trended lower since the late 1980's and stood at 4 percent in 1999. Canada takes 98 percent of U.S. fresh cucumber exports, but Canada's imports have declined 20 percent since 1997, possibly reflecting increased consumption of domestic greenhouse cucumbers. Fresh cucumber imports are strongest January and February when U.S. production is limited by cool weather and weakest in summer during the height of the domestic season. Imports accounted for 38 percent of U.S. fresh cucumber consumption in the 1990's--up from 37 percent in the 1980's and 30 percent in the 1970's. Fresh import volume in 1999 was 90 percent larger than 1990, with the majority shipped from Mexico. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico faces a small, but declining (15-year phaseout) tariff March through May, and October through November, while Canadian cucumbers now enter duty-free all year. The strong U.S. dollar and the popularity of European-type greenhouse/hydroponic cucumbers have encouraged imports from Canada to rise four-fold since the mid-1990's--now accounting for 5 percent of fresh-market cucumber imports. Vegetable Use Record High in 2000; But Fresh Use Lower Per capita use of all vegetables and melons is forecast to reach a record 459 pounds in 2000--up 2 percent from 1999. Most of this gain will likely come from processed products and potatoes. Higher prices and reduced output could result in a slight decline (around 1 percent) in per capita use of fresh-market vegetables and melons for 2000. Fresh use (excluding potatoes, sweet potatoes, and mushrooms) is forecast to total about 165 pounds per person. Adding fresh-market potatoes, mushrooms, and all sweet potatoes would bring fresh vegetable and melon use to about 223 pounds in 2000--49 percent of total vegetable and melon use. Use of leaf and romaine lettuce, cabbage, bell peppers, asparagus, and watermelon is expected to rise, offsetting decreases for head lettuce, broccoli, carrots, and sweet corn. Processing Vegetables Production Down, Prices Up, Processing Production Down 13 Percent Contract production of the four major processing vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, green peas, and snap beans) is expected to decline 13 percent this year (most processing vegetables are produced under contract). Acreage harvested under contract for the four crops was down 4 percent, while per-acre yields were lower for tomatoes (down 4 percent), they increased for sweet corn (up 2 percent), green peas (up 4 percent), and snap beans (up 4 percent). Snap bean output is expected to increase 2 percent to 0.77 million short tons on the strength of record-high yields per acre. Contract output of sweet corn was largely unchanged from a year earlier as record-tying yields were offset by acreage reductions made in response to low wholesale prices, particularly for canned corn. Contract output of green peas was up 8 percent as acreage and yields each rose about 4 percent. Contract acreage planted for pickling cucumbers increased 4 percent, with acreage unchanged in Michigan, the leading State. Contract area accounts for about 80 percent of all cucumbers destined for pickling. Tomato Crop Smaller But Supplies Still Large Contract production of tomatoes for processing is expected to be reduced 19 percent from last year's record, as the industry seeks to reduce stocks and improve wholesale prices. The last tomatoes were harvested and processed during the third week of October, and despite sharply reduced processing operations by the financially troubled Tri-Valley Growers cooperative, industry-wide pack goals were met. Some of Tri-Valley's growers were able to sell tomatoes to other processors, although most received drastically reduced prices (some said to have been less than 50 percent of the average contract price). Because of the financial turmoil caused by untimely plant closings, the fiscal year 2001 Agriculture spending bill included a small ($20 million) appropriation to aid producers of tomatoes (among other crops) who were unable to market their crops because of the Tri-Valley cooperative insolvency. Under the bill, producers could receive a maximum of 50 percent of the contract value of the unmarketed crop. Despite another cool, wet start to the California season, tomato yields approached trend levels this season. Per-acre yields exceeded trend last year when nearly ideal weather provided an excellent quality crop into early November. In 2000, the statistical trend based on data since 1970 indicates U.S. yields would be about 35.4 short tons. Current information suggests U.S. yields may have exceeded trend again in 2000. According to delivery information from the California Tomato Advisory Board, 10.28 million tons of tomatoes (contract and open market) were delivered to processors in the State this season. Adding an estimated 0.5 million tons from other States would result in a total U.S. processing tomato crop of 10.8 million tons--down 14 percent from the record crop of 1999 and just above the 10.6 million ton average of the 1990's. Despite expected gains in domestic and export demand in 2000, inventory reductions were likely modest for most products. With stocks ample this past year, wholesale prices for bulk tomato paste remained weak during 2000 and have exhibited little strength this fall now that harvest is completed. By the beginning of November, bulk (31 percent) paste prices remained around $0.32 per pound--down 15 percent from a year earlier. Continued weak wholesale prices will likely keep a lid on production plans for the 2001 season. Also, with fewer processing plants, several growers may be forced to compete for processing contracts. These factors could result in a weakening of contract offers by processors next season. The first acreage intentions for 2001 will be published in January. Record production, burdensome inventories, and lower prices characterized the 1999/2000 U.S. processing tomato market. As a result, the value of imports during the first 8 months of the calendar year declined 61 percent to $40 million. The majority of this decline resulted from a return to more usual levels of tomato paste imports, which declined from $55 million to just $7 million. As the leading tomato paste manufacturer in the world, the United States only imports paste during periods of shortages. In the year ahead, low domestic prices will continue to discourage tomato paste imports. From January through August 2000, the value of processed tomato product exports totaled $143 million, down 2 percent from the same period a year earlier. Most of this decline was the result of reduced volume of sauces and ketchup and lower tomato product prices. Partly offsetting was larger export volume for tomato paste and tomato juice--each up 16 percent. The increase in paste volume was a reflection of large stocks and low wholesale prices this year. Tomato product exports to Canada, the largest market, were down 8 percent to $69 million, while Japan was up 15 percent to $18 million. Processed tomato exports to Mexico continued to trend higher, rising 39 percent to $15 million. Processed tomato products have an estimated domestic consumer value of about $6 billion. Supermarket sales of all processed tomato products rose 2 percent in 1999 to $4.0 billion. ERS estimates based on ratios derived from a USDA food intake survey, suggest that the away-from-home market segment adds another $2 billion to processed tomato consumer sales. Pickle Use May Rise in 2000 Pickling cucumber use has been on a slow decline since peaking in 1976 at 6.1 pounds per person. In contrast, fresh cucumber use reached a record high of 6.9 pounds in 1999-44 percent higher than 1989. Although per capita use of pickling cucumbers has waned the past two decades, the 4.2 pounds used per capita today is greater than anytime previous to the mid-1960's. With larger supplies available in 2000, per capita use is expected to rise to 4.8 pounds. Pickled cucumbers are most often used as a sandwich side dish, but are also a popular snack item right out of the jar. Dozens of firms across the country produce cucumber pickles and relish. According to the 1997 Census of Manufacturers, manufacturer shipments of cucumber pickles and relishes totaled over $1 billion. Dill cucumber pickles represented about half of this value, followed by sweet pickles and refrigerated pickles. When cucumbers are pickled, the range of uses widens as compared with fresh market cucumbers. According to information derived from a USDA food consumption survey, about 45 percent of pickled cucumbers are consumed away from home. One-third of all pickled cucumbers are used in fast foods, largely reflecting sandwich uses (e.g., hamburgers and subs) and associated condiment demand (relishes). In contrast, in the away-from-home market, U.S. consumers most often eat fresh cucumbers in standard 'white tablecloth' restaurants (9 percent). These restaurants account for less than 6 percent of pickled cucumber consumption. Fresh cucumber shippers have been able to carve only a small niche in the fast-food market, which is responsible for just 2 percent of fresh cucumber consumption. Relative to other age groups, men and women under the age of 20 consume a larger percentage of pickles than fresh cucumbers--25 percent. And consumers over the age of 60 (16 percent of the population) used just 11 percent of the pickled cucumbers, likely reflecting the desire to reduce sodium in their diets. However, the largest consumers of pickles are men between the ages of 20 and 59. Men in this age group account for 27 percent of the population yet reported consuming 39 percent of the pickled cucumbers. U.S. pickle exports have been relatively consistent over the past 5 years, accounting for 2 percent of pickling cucumber supply--up from 1 percent or less in years prior to 1995. The United States exported pickles to 38 countries in 1999, with Canada, South Korea, and the Netherlands accounting for three-fourths of the volume. Imports of pickling cucumbers have been on the rise since the mid-1990's. Prior to 1993, imports accounted for 1 percent or less of pickling cucumber consumption, but reached a peak of nearly 8 percent in 1999. Recent gains reflect imports of finished product (pickles ready for immediate consumption) from Canada and India and a rising volume of bulk, unfinished pickles (in brine, requiring further processing) from Honduras and India. Bulk unfinished pickle imports totaled 50 million pounds, product weight, in 1999-up from just 7 million pounds in 1990. Both U.S. and Canadian processors have apparently found favor with bulk gherkin imports from India due largely to their low-cost and consistent sizes. Processing Vegetable Prices Up Slightly For 2000, wholesale prices as measured by the producer price index (table 22) for canned vegetables and juices are forecast to average about the same as a year ago. In fact, wholesale prices for canned vegetables have changed little over the past 5 years, reflecting stagnant demand and adequate supplies. In the coming year, supplies of tomato products and several other canned vegetables appear to be adequate, which will provide little impetus for substantial changes in pricing. The pricing story is similar for frozen vegetables except these have changed little over the past 7 years. Like canned vegetables, only small adjustments are expected in 2001, as supplies of most major items are sufficient to cover market needs. Wholesale prices for dried and dehydrated vegetable products, which reached a record-high during December 1999, have steadily dropped since the California garlic and onion crop harvests began in early summer. Although production of garlic and onions is not as large as a year ago, total supplies are larger, which should keep prices down. These prices will likely continue 12-15 percent below the highs of the previous year at least until next spring. Dehydrated garlic prices are difficult to track in the United States, but one way to gauge price trends in the market is to observe average export values. The average export value for dehydrated garlic products for the first 8 months of 2000 was $0.98 per pound, down 14 percent from a year earlier. Lower and more stable domestic prices in 2000 also helped stem the flow of imported dehydrated garlic, with January to August dehydrated garlic import volume down 27 percent from a year earlier. Average retail prices for all processing vegetables increased about 2 percent during the first 9 months of the year. Higher marketing costs left frozen vegetable prices about 2 percent higher, while consumer prices for canned and dried vegetables rose 1 percent (table 22). Sweet Corn Output Stable Contract production for sweet corn was forecast to remain about even with a year earlier at 3.29 million short tons. Harvested area was down 2 percent, but was offset by a 2-percent gain in per-acre yields. The U.S. yield of 7.23 short tons would tie the record-high set in 1994. With stronger canned corn wholesale prices (especially for institutional sizes) earlier this year, acreage destined for canning increased 5 percent, although the weather-shortened season (rains, frost) may not have allowed much of the extra area to be packed. If the pack was short and export demand remains steady, wholesale prices for canned sweet corn will likely remain firm until next summer. With beginning stocks of frozen sweet corn up from the previous season, implied movement lower than a year ago (table 21), and wholesale prices flat for consumer size packs, processors decided to earmark 7 percent less area for freezing. Production in Washington, which accounts for more than a fourth of the sweet corn crop, was estimated to have increased 8 percent as a hot summer translated into the highest yields since 1995. Minnesota harvests nearly a fourth of the national crop, and processors had planned for a 4-percent larger crop this season. However, a cloudy, rainy season trimmed yields and left production down 3 percent. Yields in Oregon rose 15 percent to a record-high 9.4 tons, offsetting much of the effect of a 20-percent reduction in area. Over the past 15 years, sweet corn processors have come to rely on world markets. Exports now account for 21 percent of canned supply, up from 13 percent in 1990, while 11 to 12 percent of frozen sweet corn supplies have been shipped to foreign markets since the late 1980's. Canned sweet corn export volume during January to August was even with a year earlier, with reduced volume to Japan (down 7 percent) and Taiwan (9 percent) being offset by increased sales to South Korea (up 100 percent) and the Netherlands (30 percent). Frozen sweet corn export volume declined 10 percent during the first 8 months of 2000, with volume to Japan, the leading overseas market, down 5 percent. On the strength of demand for frozen products, total use of processing sweet corn has increased 11 percent since 1990. Use of canning corn fell 8 percent to 2.5 billion pounds, while freezing use increased 34 percent to 2.9 billion pounds. On a per capita basis, canned corn has declined from 11.0 pounds in 1990 to an expected 9.5 pounds in 2000. Sweet corn for freezing has enjoyed more success, with per capita use rising 23 percent since 1990 to 10.6 pounds. Green Pea Output Down The initial estimate of 2000 contract production (in comparable states) for green peas indicated an 8-percent increase over 1999 to 499,920 short tons. Production increased in nearly all the major States. Harvested area was up 5 percent and per-acre yields rose 4 percent despite excess precipitation in several States. Minnesota, the largest producer of green peas, was unable to harvest 11 percent of planted area due to flooding--the same percentage as a year ago. Over the past 4 years, Minnesota pea growers have lost an average of 14 percent of green pea acreage, with the 1990's averaging 11 percent (due mostly to excess rain). In the previous three decades, acreage losses averaged about 7 percent of planted area. Both canners and freezers had intended to increase packs this year, with canners contracting for 11 percent more acres and freezers 2 percent more. Processors came into the new season on June 1 with frozen green pea stocks 7 percent below a year earlier. However, a larger pack this season left October 1 cold storage stocks for frozen green peas 9 percent above a year earlier--the largest since 1992. Larger stocks, together with good supplies of competing vegetables, could force wholesale prices of frozen green peas lower in the coming year. While fall-season wholesale prices for consumer packs of canned peas were averaging 3 to 5 percent below a year earlier, prices for institutional packs were also softening but remained above those of a year earlier. Most canned green pea shipments are geared for the domestic market. Exports now account for just 2 percent of canned supply, up from 1 percent in 1990. Imports have been variable over time but account for 7 percent of consumption today--up from 4 percent in 1990. Trade patterns are similar for frozen green peas, with imports accounting for 9 percent of consumption in 1999--up from 7 percent in 1990. Exports took 4 percent of U.S. frozen green pea supply in 1999--up from 2 percent in 1990. Snap Bean Output Rises The first estimate of 2000 contract production (contract is about 97 percent of the crop) for snap beans indicates a 4-percent increase (in comparable States) over 1999 to 770,210 short tons. Although canned/frozen production breakouts are not available until January, estimated contract area planted for canning was unchanged, while area for freezing rose 9 percent. Harvested area rose 1 percent and was reinforced by a 3-percent increase in per-acre yields. If these estimates hold, U.S. processing snap bean yields may have reached a record-high 3.83 short tons per acre. Production increased in five of the seven major States despite excess precipitation in several States. In Wisconsin, which accounts for one-third of the crop, a 15-percent increase in output was driven by record-high yields. About 40 percent of Wisconsin's crop is grown in Portage and Waushara Counties in the middle of the State. Wholesale prices for institutional size packs of canned and frozen snap beans have been running above a year earlier for most of 2000. Prices for consumer size packs of frozen snap beans have remained steady over the past few years but canned prices softened the second-half of this year (table 23). With the expected increase in supplies, no large changes are anticipated in these markets in the year ahead. Trade plays a minor role in U.S. processing snap bean markets, although canned imports have grown over the past 10 years. Canned imports now account for about 3 percent of domestic consumption--up from less than 1 percent during the early 1990's. Less than 1 percent of U.S. canned snap bean supplies are exported. About 6 percent of frozen snap bean consumption came from imports in 1999 with more than half from Canada. Through the first 8 months of 2000, frozen snap bean import volume was up 44 percent from a year earlier. Less than 3 percent of frozen snap beans are exported--up from 1 percent in 1990. Per capita use of processing snap beans has been relatively stable over the past two decades at 5.8 pounds (fresh equivalent). Consumption of snap beans for freezing averaged 1.9 pounds per person during the 1990's--12 percent higher than the 1980's. During the same period, consumption of canning snap beans declined 4 percent to 3.8 pounds. In 2000, per capita use of canning snap beans is expected to total near 3.9 pounds while freezing use remains at 2.0 pounds. Potatoes Increased Acreage and Yields Lead to Record Fall Crop The November USDA estimate of U.S. fall-season potato production is 463 million hundredweight (cwt), up 7 percent from last year, and 2 percent above the previous record set in 1996. Increased harvested acreage (up 2 percent from last fall), and record yields (up 5 percent from last year to 388 cwt per acre) combined to push total U.S. potato production for all seasons over 500 million cwt for the first time. Strong yields this fall are the result of an excellent growing season throughout much of the country, particularly in the West and the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota. In the five Eastern States, fall potato production was estimated at 28.4 million cwt, less than 1 percent below a year ago. Increased acreage caused production to rise slightly in Maine (1 percent from a year earlier), where yields were down 2 percent from last year. Production was down 9 percent in New York, mostly due to a reduction in planted and harvested acreage. Yields varied from poor to excellent within New York, netting an average of 290 cwt/acre--up 9 percent from a year ago. In the eight Central States, production was 111 million cwt, up 3 percent from last year. Minnesota and North Dakota had excellent crops, as record yields and increased harvested acreage combined to push production for the two States to 49 million cwt. Production fell slightly in Wisconsin to 34 million cwt and there were concerns about late blight and other storage related problems that could reduce marketed product from the State this shipping season. Michigan's crop totaled 15 million cwt, but Nebraska realized slightly reduced production (down 1 percent) as freeze damage during harvest reduced yields on some fields and caused growers to abandon some acreage. Most of the increase in production occurred in the 10 Western States this fall. At 324 million cwt, the crop was 10 percent above last year, and 4 percent above the previous record set in 1996. Colorado, Idaho, and Washington had increases in production of 9, 14, and 8 percent respectively, from a year ago. Increased acreage and record to near-record yields in many areas contributed to the increased production. The condition of the crop appears excellent, and the size profile favors the larger end of the scale. Higher Stocks, Lower Prices Expected in the 2000/01 Marketing Year With record domestic production this fall, stocks of fresh fall potatoes will likely average above a year ago throughout the marketing season. For the 1999/2000 marketing season, stocks of fresh potatoes averaged lower than year-previous levels for the entire season, and were 6 percent lower in June of 2000 than a year earlier. However, this fall's record crop filled most storage sheds to capacity. It is also likely that cold storage holdings of frozen potato products will average higher for much of the coming season. Holdings at the end of September 2000 were 4 percent higher than a year ago, and 2 percent higher than September 1998. The location of increased cold storage holdings is a significant factor coming into the 2000/01 marketing season. At the end of September, the Mountain and Pacific regions' holdings were up nearly 4 percent, and the North Central region holdings were nearly 20 percent above a year ago. These regions account for the vast majority of U.S. frozen potato product production. Strong stocks at the beginning of the marketing season, combined with record fall potato production in these regions will likely put strong downward pressure on grower prices for potatoes. Additional downward price pressure will come from tough competition for export markets due to another record Canadian potato crop and strong production in Europe (see subsequent section). There may be some mitigating factors in the price situation this marketing season that could prevent grower prices from dropping significantly. With an ample supply of relatively large-sized potatoes available to the fresh market this season, retailers may use additional promotions of fresh potatoes in the coming year, helping to move more volume through this channel. Also, although stocks of frozen potato products were higher coming into this season than a year ago, they are not unmanageably high, and processors may take advantage of a good crop to boost stocks even further in the coming year. Improved domestic and export demand for frozen potato products would also help the price situation. How much these factors can mitigate the downward pressure from such a large supply is uncertain. If demand is strong, and processors are eager to purchase additional potatoes (above contract tonnage) for frozen product production, the season-average grower price may not fall significantly below last year's $5.77 per cwt. However, stagnant domestic demand and tight competition in export markets could push prices down to $4.00-$5.50 per cwt. Utilization of the 1999/2000 Crop Last year, a slight increase (less than 1 percent) in production (all seasons) from 1998 resulted in only a slight increase in the total quantity sold during the marketing year. Although there was little change in the total volume of sales from the previous year, the utilization of the crop changed somewhat. Fresh use was 134 million cwt, up 7 percent from 1998/99 and reaching its highest level since the 1994/95 marketing year. Conversely, processing use for 1999/2000 fell nearly 3 percent from a year earlier. Use for frozen potato products was down 3 percent, partially due to improved processor recovery rates from the previous year and perhaps partially due to increasing competition from Canadian processors and slower growth in domestic and export markets compared with previous years. Use for dehydration also decreased in 1999/2000, down 9 percent from a year earlier. Most of that decrease can be attributed to reduced demand from Europe as a result of much improved European potato production in the fall of 1999. Despite little change in the volume of total sales in 1999/2000 from the previous year, a 4-percent increase in grower price did push total sales value up 4 percent to $2.5 billion. Much of the increase in grower price and value were attributed to increased fresh-market use. With significantly higher production this season, both sales and non-sales uses are likely to increase for the 2000/01 marketing year. Total sales value for 2000/01 should top $2.5 billion, but will depend on how well prices hold up as the year progresses. Per Capita Use Per capita use of potatoes (fresh-weight basis) for calendar 1999 totaled 139.8 pounds, down less than 1 percent from 1998, but 3 percent below 1997 (table 7). Fresh use rose by nearly 3 percent, while processing use fell by 2 percent. The decline in per capita domestic processing utilization was entirely realized in the dehydrating sector, as exports of dehydrated potato products surged due to extremely strong demand and higher prices in Europe. Domestic per capita utilization of processed potato products, particularly frozen and dehydrated products, is forecast to rebound in 2000 and 2001. Increased production in 1999 and 2000 will likely prevent prices from rising into 2001, and should promote strong domestic utilization of both fresh and processed products. World Production Likely To Rise, Trade Outlook Uncertain in 2000/01 The first estimate of 2000 Canadian potato production is 99 million cwt, 5 percent above a year ago, and 4 percent above the previous record set in 1998. This is the sixth record crop in the last 7 years for Canada. The increase comes despite freeze losses during harvest in Manitoba and Alberta. Prince Edward Island (PEI) remains the top potato-producing province, accounting for 29 percent of the crop, however, most of the increase in Canadian potato production has been occurring in the Prairie Provinces of Manitoba and Alberta. Despite being forced to abandon several thousand acres due to frost and other reasons this fall, production is estimated to have increased 28 percent in Alberta and 17 percent in Manitoba from a year ago. Fueled largely by french fry exports, Alberta's potato production is up 71 percent since 1998. Most of the industry expansion in these provinces is a result of added demand from new french fry plants that have been built over the past several years. Most of the fries are destined for the United States, as fry imports from Canada have increased an average of 26 percent per year since 1989. In 1999, the United States imported 910 million pounds of fries from Canada, and from January through August of 2000, imports totaled 698 million pounds--21 percent more than the same period a year ago. A contributing factor to the rapid increase in Canadian production capacity and exports to the United States is the Canadian/U.S. exchange rate over the past several years. The value of the Canadian dollar has fallen 24 percent relative to the U.S. dollar since 1989. With the value of the Canadian dollar expected to increase only slightly relative to the U.S dollar in the coming year, frozen french fry imports from Canada are likely to continue increasing. In addition to record crops in Canada and the United States in 2000, another strong crop is expected in Europe this year. Although some official estimates are forthcoming, early indications are that the European crop should be similar in size to last year's crop of 49 million metric tons. Production in Germany, the largest potato-producing country in the European Union, may rise as much as 10 percent, while production in other key producers such as the Netherlands, France, and the United Kingdom is expected to stay level or decrease from a year ago. Last year's crop brought relatively low prices and this year may be more of the same. If that holds true, the United States can expect stiff competition from European Union processors in frozen potato product export markets. U.S. processors are unlikely to increase exports to Europe in 2001, and will, therefore, look to continue expanding markets in the Far East and possibly South America. U.S. potato producers are likely to continue facing increased competition in world markets for the foreseeable future. Much of the increase in potato production throughout the world is being driven by increased demand for processed potato products (particularly frozen french fries), and the necessity of processors to meet this demand in a cost-competitive industry. Global competition is forcing processors to continue to find ways to remain cost efficient. In addition to improving processing technology and efficiency, processors are beginning to capitalize on the benefits of global sourcing. This means both buying raw potatoes from and producing finished processed product in locations throughout the world. This promotes processor competitiveness in several ways, including reduced shipping costs to final market destinations, increasing competition between potato producers world-wide, and allowing processors to take advantage of currency exchange rates between countries. Global production diversification also helps to stabilize supply by lowering the risk of supply shortages due to crop-related problems in a particular geographic region. Sweet Potatoes Higher Production, Lower Prices Expected U.S. sweet potato growers are expected to harvest 93,300 acres this fall--up 12 percent from 1999. The increase in harvested acreage will contribute to increased production and likely lower prices this year. Last year's production was hampered by damage from Hurricane Floyd, but this year has had no such disaster. North Carolina, the largest sweet potato producing State, has had a very good growing season and should harvest nearly 28 percent more acreage this fall, increasing production significantly from a year ago. Louisiana, the second largest sweet potato producer, also increased acreage this year (harvested area is up 4 percent), but had high temperatures throughout much of the growing season and a slightly delayed harvest due to dry conditions. As a result, yields for the State will likely be below year-earlier levels. California, the third largest producer, decreased acreage slightly this year (down 3 percent), but has had a good growing season, and yields should be very good. If overall U.S. sweet potato yields rise to trend levels of 159 cwt/acre, production will be approximately 14.8 million cwt (24 percent above a year ago). At that level, grower prices could fall from last year's season average of $17.60 per cwt (preliminary estimate) to as low as the $13-$16 range. However, more modest yields of 145-150 cwt/acre at the national level would put production at 13.5-14 million cwt, and would likely lead to less of a decline in season-average grower prices--possibly in the range of $14-$17 per cwt. Year-earlier comparisons of early fall shipping-point prices show them 8-15 percent lower this season in both Louisiana and North Carolina. Shipment volume has been down about 7 percent in Louisiana (partly due to the slow harvest), but is up nearly 40 percent in North Carolina compared with a year ago. Much of last years' higher prices and lower volume of sweet potatoes was attributed to Hurricane Floyd, which hit eastern North Carolina in September 1999, causing extensive damage to the sweet potato crop. North Carolina growers lost 22 percent of their planted acreage to flooding (typical acreage loss/abandonment is about 3 percent), and yields on many remaining fields were reduced by as much as 20 percent. Instead of realizing near-record production, North Carolina sweet potato production fell to 3.8 million cwt, nearly 31 percent below 1998 and the lowest since 1974. Despite the large drop in production, North Carolina growers only realized a 9 percent increase in grower prices for the 1999 crop. Growers from several other States however, did benefit from the overall decrease in production, as the U.S. season-average price of $17.60 per cwt was a record high and was up 15 percent from 1998. Dry Edible Beans Production Down 23 Percent U.S. dry edible bean production is estimated to be 25.6 million cwt, down 23 percent from a year ago and the smallest crop since 1993. Reductions were noted in both area harvested (down 16 percent) and yield per acre (8 percent). Production declined in each of the major States and for every major bean class. The steepest decline in output occurred in Michigan, which dropped 34 percent, compared with 1999 when the State harvested its largest crop in 18 years. North Dakota, the production leader, reduced output 21 percent in response to burdensome stocks and low prices, which stemmed from harvesting back-to-back record and near-record crops in 1998 and 1999. Although beginning to show some strength, aggregate dry bean prices remain low ($15.30 per cwt in October, down 11 percent from a year ago) because of fully stocked market pipelines and slow exports for a few key bean classes. USDA announced several sizeable purchase intentions for domestic canned and dry pack beans this fall, which should help improve market tone by reducing inventories built by last season's strong yields, ample world supplies, and the sluggish export market this season. Despite extremely low prices, dry bean export volume was 14 percent below a year ago through the first 8 months of 2000. Adequate world supplies and the strong U.S. dollar have offset the advantage of low market prices, keeping export volume down for navy beans (down 56 percent) and pinto beans (down 29 percent) beans--the two largest classes. However, the lack of movement in these two large classes masked much stronger volumes for most other bean classes. Exports increased from the low levels of a year ago for black, Great Northern, baby lima, small red, blackeye, and pink beans. U.S. exports (commercial and food aid) increased to Mexico, Japan, Angola, and Haiti but declined to the United Kingdom, Canada, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Reduced volume to Central American nations such as Honduras was a reflection of the recovery from Hurricane damage 2 years ago, bringing lower food aid needs. Because of the strong U.S. dollar, competition from Canada, and reduced navy bean import demand, export sales to the United Kingdom were down by two-thirds to just 35 million pounds. With average grower prices for dry beans very low for most of the past marketing year, retail prices for dry bagged beans also fell, declining 2 percent from a year earlier during the first 9 months of 2000. However, the U.S. dry bean grower-retail price margin declined during the year, with the grower price averaging just 23 percent of retail value during the first 3 quarters--down from 26 percent in 1999. However, an expected gain in grower prices during the fourth quarter with expectations for further modest increases in the year ahead should help growers regain some of this lost share of retail value. Domestic dry bean consumption is forecast to reach a record 2.2 billion pounds in 2000--up about 2 percent from 1999. Forecasts for 2001 suggest domestic use may decline as supply is cut back and prices begin to move higher. On a per-person basis, dry bean use jumped about 8 percent in 1999 to 7.9 pounds due to strong supplies and very low prices. In 2000, most dry bean prices remained low and relatively stable, which encouraged the domestic market to absorb more dry beans and allowed per capita use to rise to 8.0 pounds. Pinto Production Down, Price Improving Pinto bean production in 2000 is expected to be down for the second consecutive year following 1998's near-record high and should be a better match for the existing domestic and export demand. Calendar year 2000 domestic use is likely to be around 975 million pounds and exports will use an estimated 150 million pounds. Although data were not available at this writing, this year's pinto production was likely the lowest since 1993, which means stocks entering the 2001 season should be substantially reduced. As a result, pinto prices should strengthen as the marketing year progresses. Grower prices (MN/ND) began the marketing year in September at $11.50 per cwt and had moved to $12.00 by mid-November. Although moving higher, these were the lowest monthly averages since 1991. Assuming pinto prices continue to strengthen into the spring, a small increase in pinto bean acreage is likely in 2001. Pinto bean exports have been weak this year, with volume during the first 9 months of the year down 18 percent from a year earlier. Reduced movement to Mexico (down 24 percent), the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and few sales to Nicaragua outweighed increased movement to Angola (up 99 percent) and Russia. Exports are expected to account for about 9 percent of supplies, down from 10 percent in 1999 and 12 percent during the 1990's. The recent low was in 1992 when just 7 percent of supplies were exported. Mushrooms Fresh Use Continues To Edge Upward The Nation's 304 growers produced 867 million pounds of agaricus and specialty mushrooms during the 1999/2000 season--up 1 percent from the previous season (table 50). Agaricus mushrooms (white and brown types) accounted for 99 percent of the crop. The long-term movement favoring fresh over processing mushrooms continued with fresh-market sales of agaricus mushrooms rising 2 percent to 669 million pounds. Processing volume declined 2 percent to 186 million pounds--the lowest since the 1988/89 season. Processing volume last exceeded fresh in 1977/78 and its share has trended lower since then (with the exception of a rally in the late 1980's and early 1990's fueled partly by skyrocketing pizza demand) and accounts for less than 22 percent of the agaricus crop today. Pennsylvania continued to assert its dominance of the industry, with market share rising to 52 percent of the national total--up from 50 percent a year ago and 47 percent 2 years ago. California (15 percent) and Florida (5 percent) are the other leading States. Pennsylvania has increased share in both the fresh (from 41 to 46 percent) and processing (from 65 to 71 percent) markets since 1997/98. The popularity of brown mushrooms (Portobello and Crimini) continued to soar during the 1999/2000 season with sales volume rising substantially to 67 million pounds. About three-fourths of these mushrooms are produced in Eastern States. After leaping 37 percent a year ago, sales volume of specialty mushrooms (including Shiitake, Oyster, and other exotics) declined 2 percent to just under 13 million pounds. The value of the 1999/2000 mushroom crop totaled a record high $867 million, with fresh-market agaricus accounting for $716 million. The value of specialty mushroom (excluding brown agaricus mushrooms like Portobello and Crimini) sales remained flat at $39 million, as a 4-percent rise in Shiitake prices outweighed reduced volume and offset an 8-percent drop in prices for all other specialty mushrooms. The value of brown mushrooms continued to soar, reaching $87 million. Total use of all mushrooms rose 6 percent to 1.14 billion pounds in 1999 (fresh-weight basis)--up from 930 million pounds in 1990 and 625 million in 1980. Nearly all the gain in total mushroom demand since 1990 has been the result of rising fresh use. On a per-capita basis, fresh use rose 2 percent from a year earlier to 2.54 pounds in 1999/2000 and is expected to rise similarly in 2000/01. Processing use in 1999/2000 recovered most of the loss experienced the previous season as reduced domestic production was offset by increased imports. Imports now account for 61 percent of processed mushroom consumption compared with an average of 54 percent for the 1990's and 55 percent in the 1980's. Canadian mushroom production totaled 153 million pounds during 1999/2000 with 85 percent for the fresh-market. Ontario, the fresh-market leader, produced 48 percent of the mushroom crop followed by British Columbia (which leads in processing) at 32 percent. In Canada, per capita fresh mushroom use is about 50 percent higher than the United States. Imports of canned mushrooms increased 29 percent during the 1999/2000 crop year to 135 million pounds (product-weight). Canned imports had declined sharply the previous year as a result of punitive duties assigned nations found to be dumping product in the U.S. market. Imports of all fresh mushrooms, mostly from Canada, rose 28 percent to 30 million pounds during 1999/2000. U.S. fresh exports rose 10 percent to about 15 million pounds in 1999/2000. In January 2000, the Census Bureau split fresh mushroom imports into two components--agaricus and others (specialties). During the first 8 months of 2000, one-third of fresh imports consisted of specialty mushrooms. About 75 percent of specialty imports arrived from Canada, with China accounting for another 16 percent. Canada provides 99 percent of fresh-market agaricus imports. Special article Factors Affecting Tomato Consumption in the United States Gary Lucier, Biing-Hwan Lin, Jane Allshouse, and Linda Scott Kantor --------1/ -------- 1/ Lucier is an economist with the Market and Trade Economics Division, the others are economists with the Food and Rural Economics Division, all within USDA's Economic Research Service. -------- Abstract: Fresh and processed tomato consumption has increased significantly in the United States over the past two decades. However, little is known about the distribution of tomato consumption across different marketing sectors, geographic regions, or population groups. Using data from USDA's 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals, this article examines the consumption distribution of fresh and processed tomatoes in the United States. The analysis indicates that per capita fresh tomato consumption is greatest in the northeastern and western areas of the country while processed tomatoes are most popular in the West and Midwest. With the exception of catsup, the majority of tomatoes and products are consumed at home. Catsup is a teenage staple and one-third is consumed with fast foods. Keywords: Tomatoes, consumption, per capita use, distribution, regions, catsup, sauce, paste, juice. There has been continuing interest in information regarding the consumption distribution of foods such as tomatoes. Although a great deal is known about the supply side of the U.S. fresh and processed tomato markets, relatively little has been published about consumer demand. According to per capita disappearance data compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS), both fresh and processed tomato demand have generally trended higher over the past two decades. Processed tomato use trended higher from 1920 until leveling in the mid- 1990's, while fresh tomato consumption continues to trend higher after bottoming out in 1971. During the most recent 3 years (1997- 99), average fresh use increased 40 percent over the 1977-79 period (to 17.6 pounds per person annually), while average processing use has risen 20 percent to 74.1 pounds (table A-1). A combination of factors, including immigration trends and changes in America's tastes and preferences has likely contributed to rising per capita tomato use. However, due to a lack of consumer research in this area, little is known about the demographics of fresh and processed tomato consumption. For example, what proportion of tomatoes and tomato products are purchased for at-home versus away-from-home meals? Has the increasing Hispanic population influenced fresh tomato demand? Who consumes catsup? These questions have largely gone unanswered. The purpose of this article is to provide unique basic information about the market distribution of fresh and processed tomatoes using data from USDA's most recent individual food consumption survey. Following a short discussion of the data used in the analyses, the next sections will describe the distribution of fresh and processed tomato consumption by food source, region of the country, ethnic background, income class, and age and gender. Market distribution analyses will be presented for fresh and total processed tomatoes and also for the major tomato products, including sauces, paste, juice, canned whole, and catsup. Data and Methodology USDA has conducted periodic surveys of household and individual food consumption in the United States since the 1930's (see box). The most recent survey, the 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII), 2/------ ------- 2/ U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, 1998. 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals and 1994-96 Diet and Health Knowledge Survey. CD-ROM. Available from National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA. ------- conducted by USDA's Agricultural Research Service (ARS), provided the basis for this article. Each year of this 3-year data set comprises a nationally representative sample of non-institutionalized persons residing in 50 States and Washington, D.C. In the 1994-96 CSFII, 2 nonconsecutive days of dietary data for individuals of all ages were collected 3 to 10 days apart through in-person interviews, between January 1994 and January 1997, using 24-hour recalls. The 3-year CSFII data set includes information on food and nutrient intakes by 15,303 individuals who provided dietary data for both days. The respondents provided a list of foods consumed as well as information on where, when, and how much each food was eaten. Standardized probes were used to collect details on food descriptions and amounts of food eaten. The location where the food was purchased was coded into several categories. For each respondent, an array of economic, social, and demographic characteristics were also collected. This rich database enables researchers to estimate the market/consumption distribution of a food by numerous delineations. Tomato Markets and Use Tomatoes are second only to potatoes in both U.S. farm value and vegetable consumption. With a farm value of about $1.8 billion, U.S. annual per capita use of tomatoes and tomato products has increased nearly 30 percent over the past 20 years, and is expected to reach a fresh-weight equivalent of 92 pounds per person in 2000. Processed tomato products, including items such as sauces, catsup, pastes, salsa, and juice, will account for about 81 percent of that total. ERS estimates suggest the largest processed use of tomatoes is for sauces (35 percent), followed by paste (18 percent), canned whole tomato products (17 percent), and catsup and juice (each about 15 percent). Domestic use of processed tomato products surged heading into the 1990's but leveled off as the decade progressed. Domestic use averaged 75.2 pounds per capita during the 1990's--up 18 percent from an annual average 63.5 pounds during the 1980's. The increase is likely the result of continued expansion in food- service demand (food purchased in restaurants and fast-food establishments), especially for Italian and Mexican-style dishes. Some of the increase may also be due to rising public awareness of the health benefits of processed tomato products in the diet. Several medical studies in the 1990's have linked diets rich in tomatoes and tomato products to reduced risk of various diseases. Fresh market tomato use has also increased. After remaining flat during the 1960's and 70's at 12.2 pounds, fresh use increased 19 percent during the 1980's and at least 14 percent during the 1990's to nearly 17 pounds. Because of the expansion of the domestic greenhouse, hydroponic tomato industry during the 1990's, it is likely per capita use is at least 1 pound higher than currently reported (USDA does not currently enumerate greenhouse vegetable production). Consumption of fresh-market tomatoes has likely increased over time due to the enduring popularity of salads, salad bars, and sandwiches such as the BLT (bacon-lettuce-tomatoes), plus the introduction of improved tomato varieties (including greenhouse, hydroponic) and expanding national emphasis on health and nutrition. Market Share by Location In the CSFII survey, the 'at home' and 'away from home' delineation is based on where a food was obtained or prepared, not where it was consumed. Food at home is generally obtained at a retail store such as a supermarket, grocery store, or a convenience store. Food away from home is generally purchased from foodservice establishments but can also be obtained in such places as school cafeterias, community feeding programs, or child/adult care centers. Both home and away-from-home food can be consumed at or away from home. For example, a bagged lunch prepared at home and consumed at work is classified as home food. A commercially prepared pizza delivered and consumed at home is classified as food away from home. Fast food places include self- service establishments and carryout places; restaurants are places that have wait staff; and school cafeterias include day care facilities and summer camps. The category 'others' is a catch-all category, including such things as community feeding centers, bar/taverns, vending machines, etc. According to the survey, the bulk of fresh and processed tomatoes were purchased at retail stores and considered as home foods (table A-2). Away from home sources accounted for about 30 percent of the fresh market during 1994-96, while 34 percent of processed products were obtained away from home. The results were somewhat surprising for fresh, as previous industry estimates have suggested away from home to be closer to 40 percent of the tomato market. One possible explanation could be the impact of home garden tomatoes. Millions of Americans enjoy backyard or community vegetable gardening, with most plots featuring tomatoes. About one-third of tomato sauces and whole tomato products (e.g. salsa and stewed tomatoes) were purchased at retail with the remainder obtained from restaurants. The popular influence of pizza and pasta during the 1990's was the likely driving force behind restaurant use of tomato sauces. Pizza consumption has more than tripled since the late 1970's and is likely responsible for the lion's share of sauces purchased in fast foods (17 percent). Meanwhile, the popularity of Mexican and Italian restaurants during the early and mid 1990's may have been a key driving force for restaurant use of whole tomato products. Tomato paste and juice were each considered home foods, with nearly 9 out of 10 servings purchased for home use. As is widely believed, catsup was the only tomato product that relied more heavily on the away from home market than the at-home market. Nearly 60 percent of consumers reported using catsup on away-from-home foods, with one-third of all catsup servings originating from fast foods. This reflects the continued popularity of the hamburger and french fry meal. With the advent of extra-large sized serving options by the leading fast food chains in the 1990's, french fry consumption increased by one- third, which, in turn, likely increased catsup demand. The popularity of hamburgers and fries in school lunch meals was also reflected in the 7 percent of catsup servings originating from school meals. This was twice as large as any other tomato product reported in school meals. Tomato Use by Region and Urbanization The CSFII data show distinct regional patterns in the consumption of tomato products. There are four Census-defined regions-- Northeast (20 percent of the population), Midwest (24 percent), South (35 percent), and West (22 percent). In general, per capita tomato consumption was fairly uniform across all four regions. As table A-2 shows, fresh tomatoes were favored slightly more in the Northeast and the West and slightly less in the Midwest and South. Consumption of processed tomato products was strongest in the West and Midwest and weakest in the South. For tomato sauce, consumption was reported to be strongest in the West and weakest in the South, while people in the Midwest and South tend to consume proportionately more catsup than the Northeast and West. These likely reflect regional dietary preferences such as the use (or nonuse) of catsup on foods such as scrambled eggs and hotdogs. One of the largest regional differences was in tomato juice. The Northeast, consisting of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, contains 20 percent of the Nation's population but accounts for 26 percent of tomato juice consumption. Each of the other regions consumes proportionately less juice than their share of the national population. About 47 percent of American consumers resided in suburban areas, 32 percent live in metropolitan cities, and 21 percent live in rural areas. Fresh tomato consumption was slightly stronger in suburban areas, while overall processed tomato consumption was proportional to the population shares. The greatest variation from the population shares occurred in tomato catsup and juice. Per capita use of catsup was strongest in rural America, while tomato juice was most popular in Metropolitan areas. Racial/Ethnic Makeup of Tomato Consumers Non-Hispanic white consumers represented 73 percent of the U.S. population and slightly favored consumption of both fresh and processed tomatoes. On a per capita basis (market share divided by population share), whites had consumption ratios greater than 1 for all products except tomato paste which was 0.99. Whites led in the consumption of tomato juice and were the second-leading consumer group for all other categories except processed whole tomatoes (third). Hispanic consumers were the strongest consumers of fresh-market tomatoes. Hispanics accounted for nearly 11 percent of the population and reported consuming 13 percent of fresh tomatoes. Hispanics of Mexican descent represented 5 percent of the U.S. population but consumed 7 percent of fresh tomatoes--a general reflection of diets steeped in fresh produce. Compared with other consumers, tomatoes were discovered to be less important in the diets of non-Hispanic black consumers. Blacks represented 13 percent of the U.S. population yet only accounted for 9 percent of fresh tomato consumption and 10 percent of processed tomato products. Among processed products, blacks had the highest per capita consumption of tomato paste and catsup but were the lightest consumers of tomato sauces, whole tomato products, and juice. Tomato Use and Income According to the survey, per capita consumption of fresh and processing tomatoes increases as incomes rise. Households were classified into three income brackets using the Federal poverty guidelines. The poverty guideline was developed by the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services for the implementation of Federal food programs. Some Federal food programs, such as the Food Stamp Program, have used 130 percent of the poverty level to determine eligibility for participation. It is used in this study as the top end of the low-income category. About 39 percent of households had income exceeding 350 percent of the poverty level (called high-income households); 42 percent of households had income falling between 130 and 350 percent of the poverty level (middle-income group); and 19 percent of households had income below 130 percent of the poverty level (low-income). Households in the highest income bracket, with income greater than 350 percent of the poverty level, represented 39 percent of the U.S. population and consumed 44 percent of all fresh tomatoes. This may reflect uneven growth in retail tomato sales spurred by the introduction of high quality, high-priced tomatoes--products more likely to be purchased by financially better-off consumers. At the other end of the income spectrum, low-income consumers account for 19 percent of the population and consume just 16 percent of fresh tomatoes. For processed tomatoes, results were similar but the range from low to upper income consumers was narrower. For tomato sauces, the largest and broadest processed product category, per capita use increased with income, reflecting the prevalence of specialized spaghetti, pizza, and other prepared sauces in supermarkets. In some cases, these 'luxury' items may be more likely to be purchased by those who can afford them while those of lesser means may be more likely to prepare sauces from scratch to save money. Tomato juice was the most income-sensitive product, with nearly half of consumption by upper income consumers. This may reflect the use of tomato juice for parties and other social occasions rather than just as a breakfast drink. Catsup was the closest to being negatively correlated with income as the middle income and lower income groups had a higher per capita consumption than upper income consumers. This may reflect lower consumption of fast foods by upper income consumers. Consumption by Age and Gender There are distinct tomato consumption patterns by age. As shown in table A-2, male consumers (perhaps because of their larger caloric intake) had higher per capita consumption of all fresh and processed tomato products than females. Men consumed 53 percent of fresh tomatoes and 59 percent of processed tomato products. Males and females under the age of 20 consume proportionately fewer fresh tomatoes than more mature people, with per capita use falling dramatically for youths under the age of 12. Children under the age of 12 account for 18 percent of the population but consume just 8 percent of fresh tomatoes. Children begin to consume tomatoes in greater volume once they reach the teen years. Teens (defined here as ages 12-19) account for 11 percent of the population and consume 8 percent of the fresh tomatoes. Men between the ages of 20 and 39 were the largest consumers of fresh tomatoes, representing 16 percent of the population and consuming 20 percent of all fresh tomatoes. Interestingly, women in this same age group lag men in terms of per capita consumption. Men and women over the age of 39 appear to pay greater attention to the nutritional aspects of their diets than younger consumers (at least with regard to fresh tomatoes). This group represents 39 percent of the population, yet they consume 50 percent of all fresh tomatoes. For processed tomatoes, the consumption patterns are more complex. Tomato product consumption becomes more important at an earlier age than for fresh tomatoes, with children between the ages of 6 and 11 consuming nearly twice as many servings of processed tomato products as fresh. This reflects the earlier acceptability of foods such as spaghetti, salsa, and most importantly, catsup. Children under the age of 12 consume 19 percent of catsup but they are not the leading catsup consumers. Teenage boys (12-19) have the highest per capita consumption of catsup. This group represented 6 percent of the population yet consumed 15 percent of the catsup--the most dominant share of any tomato product category. Teenage girls are also important catsup consumers, but their per capita consumption lags that of boys by about 40 percent. Tomato juice appears to be a product largely avoided until adulthood. In general, juice consumption increases with age, particularly for men. Men over 39 represent 18 percent of the population and consume 36 percent of tomato juice. Men and women over age 60 were 16 percent of the population but consumed 27 percent of tomato juice. Conclusion While much is known about the supply side of the U.S. tomato markets, little is known about the consumer side of the market. In this paper, using data from USDA's CSFII survey we show where and how much fresh and processed tomato products are consumed and link this consumption to consumer's economic, social, and demographic characteristics. The important findings in this article include; o The bulk of fresh and processed tomatoes were purchased at retail stores and considered as home foods. Catsup was the only tomato product that relied more heavily on the away-from-home market than the at-home market; o Fresh tomatoes were favored slightly more in the Northeast and the West and slightly less in the Midwest and South. Consumption of processed tomato products was strongest in the West and Midwest and weakest in the South. o Hispanic consumers were the strongest consumers of fresh-market tomatoes. Compared with other consumers, tomatoes were discovered to be less important in the diets of non-Hispanic black consumers. o Per capita consumption of fresh and processing tomatoes increases as incomes rise. Households in the highest income bracket, with income greater than 350 percent of the poverty level, represented 39 percent of the U.S. population and consumed 44 percent of all fresh tomatoes. o Men and women over the age of 39 represent 39 percent of the population, yet they consume 50 percent of all fresh tomatoes. Teenage boys (12-19) have the highest per capita consumption of catsup. BOX TEXT USDA Food Consumption Data USDA collects and compiles two major data sets on food consumption in the United States, the Supply and Utilization or food disappearance data, compiled by USDA's ERS, and the Continuing Survey of Food Intakes of Individuals, compiled by USDA's Agricultural Research Service. Both data sets are key components of ongoing Federal efforts to monitor the nutritional health and dietary status of U.S. consumers. They were mandated by Congress under the National Nutrition Monitoring and Related Research Act of 1990. When used together, they provide a comprehensive picture of the Nation's eating habits. Food Supply and Utilization Data, also known as food disappearance data, measures the flow of raw and semi-processed food commodities through the U.S. marketing system. They are neither a direct measure of actual consumption, nor of the quantity of food actually ingested. The total amount available for domestic consumption is estimated as the residual after exports, industrial uses, seed and feed use, and year-end inventories are subtracted from the sum of production, beginning inventories, and imports. The use of conversion factors allows for some subsequent processing, trimming, spoilage, and shrinkage in the distribution system. However, the estimates also include residual uses for which data are not available (such as miscellaneous non-food uses, and changes in retail and consumer stocks). With data back to 1909 for most commodities, the food disappearance data are useful as indicators of trends over time. The data are most commonly used to measure the average level of food consumption in the country, to show year-to-year changes in consumption of major foods, to calculate the approximate nutrient content of the food supply, to establish long-term consumption trends, and to permit statistical analyses of effects of prices and income on food consumption. Because they include spoilage and waste accumulated through the marketing system and in the home, the data typically overstate actual consumption. A 1997 ERS study suggested that such losses may exceed 25 percent of the edible food supply. Food disappearance data reflect the amount of major food commodities entering the market, regardless of their final use. Final product forms and consumption locations are not usually known, and little or no data exists on supplies of further processed products. In short, relatively good information exists for many food ingredients, but not for foods as actually eaten. For example, the food disappearance data provide a good estimate of the annual per capita consumption of processed tomatoes but provide no information on how tomatoes were processed for consumption--whole, sauce, paste, catsup, juice; where the tomato products were marketed--supermarket, hospital, school, restaurant, or food manufacturer; how they were consumed--in spaghetti, on hamburgers, or on pizza; how they were prepared-- cooked from scratch or reheated from a canned product; or the socioeconomic characteristics of the consumer that ultimately ate the food. The Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) measures foods actually eaten by individuals. The survey records food intake over a specific period of time (two non-consecutive days in 1994-96 using 24-hour dietary recalls). The survey collects demographic information, such as household size, income, race, age, and sex, and information on where a food was purchased, how it was prepared, and where it was eaten, in addition to food-intake data. The CSFII provides information for use in policy formation, regulation, program planning and evaluation, education, and research. For example, data from recent surveys have been used to evaluate the impact of food fortification on nutrient intakes, to estimate exposure to pesticide residues and other contaminants from foods, and to target nutrition assistance and education programs to those who need them most. The data are particularly valuable for measuring the effect of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics on food consumption. In addition to intake data, the Agricultural Research Service also provides technical support documents, including recipes and number of servings relative to USDA Food Guide Pyramid (Pyramid) dietary recommendations. For each food, its recipe lists all ingredients and their weights in grams. The description of the ingredients can be used to distinguish among food products (e.g., stewed tomatoes vs. spaghetti sauce). The Pyramid serving data show, for each food consumed, the number of servings from 30 food groups. The recipe files and Pyramid serving data together show the number of servings of a product (e.g., fresh tomatoes) provided by a food (e.g., a particular meal package offered at a quick service restaurant). The intake data show where and how much of the food was consumed. The 1994-96 CSFII data include a sample weight for each respondent, indicating the number of people the sample represents. The share of a tomato product by location can be estimated by calculating the weighted sum of the product consumed in each location. Similarly, the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the respondents can be used to estimate the consumption share of tomatoes by these characteristics. 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