WHEAT YEARBOOK -- SUMMARY March 5, 1998 March 1998 WHS-0298 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of WHEAT YEARBOOK (ERS-WHS-1998) will be available 1-2 weeks following this summary release. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Wheat Yearbook presents preliminary projections for 1998/99 that were released at the 1998 Agricultural Outlook Forum. U.S. Wheat Supply To Remain Steady in 1998/99 Wheat planted acreage in 1998 is forecast to total about 68.5 million acres, down 2.5 million acres from last year. With trend yields, wheat production is expected to decline about 9 percent. Larger beginning stocks will offset the expected decline in production, leaving the supply virtually unchanged from the current marketing year. Preliminary forecasts peg both domestic use and exports up slightly in 1998/99. Ending stocks could be down slightly, and the average price received by farmers will likely be about the same as in 1997/98. Wheat farmers responded to lower prices and unfavorable planting conditions, particularly in Montana, by reducing winter wheat plantings 4 percent from a year earlier to the lowest level since 1973. Spring wheat plantings may fall too, as farmers evaluate the relative profitability of competing crops. Strong prices for durum will lead to an expansion of durum area in 1998. For 1997/98, U.S. wheat supplies rebounded to 3,060 million bushels, the highest since 1990/91. Total disappearance is forecast to rise about 3 percent from 1996/97, with the increase coming from higher domestic food use and an improved export picture. The higher forecast food use will offset lower seed use, with feed and residual down slightly. The season average farm price is projected to range between $3.40 and $3.50 per bushel. U.S. exports in 1997/98 are forecast up 7 percent from the previous year's low level. Through February, U.S. wheat exports trailed year-earlier levels because of increased competition, especially from Canada. However, during the remainder of the year U.S. exports will benefit from reduced competition. This issue contains three special articles: "The Growth in U.S. Wheat Food Demand," "Genetic Transformation: A New Tool for the Improvement of Wheat," and "Noodle End-Use Characteristics for Wheat in East and Southeast Asia." Printed copies of the Wheat Yearbook will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information, contact Mack Leath or James Barnes at (202) 694-5300. Text of the full report also will be available electronically. For details, call ERS Customer Service (202) 694-5050. THE WHEAT SITUATION AT A GLANCE ------------------------------------------------------------------ All wheat: Supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Year beginning 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 June 1 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels Beginning stocks 531 568 507 376 444 Production 2,396 2,321 2,183 2,285 2,527 Imports 109 92 68 92 90 Supply, total 3,036 2,981 2,757 2,753 3,060 Domestic disappear. Food 872 853 883 891 915 Seed 96 89 104 103 96 Feed & residual 272 344 153 314 300 Domestic, total 1,240 1,287 1,140 1,308 1,311 Exports 1,228 1,188 1,241 1,001 1,075 Disappearance, total 2,467 2,475 2,381 2,310 2,386 Ending stocks 568 507 376 444 674 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat by class: Supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Year beginning Hard Hard Soft White Durum Total June 1 red red red winter spring winter ------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1996/97: 2/ Beginning stocks 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production 761 631 422 355 116 2,285 Supply, total 4/ 915 790 457 425 166 2,753 Domestic disappear. 486 324 272 129 97 1,308 Exports 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 Disappear., total 772 624 412 366 135 2,310 Ending stocks 143 166 45 59 31 444 1997/98: 3/ Beginning stocks 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 4/ 1,265 716 529 404 147 3,060 Domestic disappear. 605 258 265 107 78 1,311 Exports 395 230 200 205 45 1,075 Disappear., total 1,000 488 465 312 123 2,386 Ending stocks 265 228 64 92 24 674 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/Includes flour and products in wheat equivalent. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes imports. END_OF_FILE