WHEAT YEARBOOK -- SUMMARY March 27, 2000 March 2000, ERS-WHS-2000 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of WHEAT YEARBOOK (WHS-2000) will be available electronically about 2 weeks following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Supplies Large, Prices Low The Wheat Yearbook presents preliminary projections for 2000/2001 that were released at the 2000 Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 24-25, 2000. Wheat farmers responded to lower prices and unfavorable planting conditions, particularly in parts of the central and southern Plains, by reducing winter wheat plantings for the 2000 crop by 515,000 acres, down 1 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1972. Spring wheat (including durum) plantings are expected to fall too, as farmers evaluate the relative profitability of competing crops such as barley, soybeans, and minor oilseeds. If yields equal the average for the last 5 years, total wheat production for 2000/01 could decline about 8 percent. Larger beginning stocks will be partially offsetting, however, leaving the total supply about 4 percent below the current marketing year that ends on May 31. Total use is forecast down slightly because of smaller feed and residual use. However, the smaller use will exceed production, and ending stocks will decline. Even so, stocks will remain relatively large and the average price received by farmers will likely be below $3.00 again in 2000/01 (June/May). For 1999/2000, U.S. wheat supplies dropped slightly to 3,343 million bushels. Total disappearance is forecast to decline about 3 percent from 1998/1999, the result of lower projected feed and residual use. Use will trail production, and stocks will approach 1 billion bushels. The season average farm price is projected to range between $2.45 and $2.55 per bushel. U.S. exports in 1999/2000 are forecast up slightly to 1,050 million bushels. Another year of disappointing exports is projected because of strong competition from foreign exporters. Global imports are up slightly, but the U.S. market share will decline this year. This issue contains three special articles: (1) Russia's Wheat Production and Trade: Recent Performance and Future Prospects; (2) EU Enlargement: Impacts on CEE Wheat Markets; and (3) The Next Round of Agricultural Trade Negotiations: Background and Issues for the U.S. Wheat Sector. Printed copies of the Wheat Yearbook will be available in about 3 weeks. For further information, contact Mack Leath (202) 694- 5302. The full report will also be available on the ERS web site at www.ers.usda.gov. THE WHEAT SITUATION AT A GLANCE ------------------------------------------------------------------ All wheat: Supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Marketing year 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 beginning June 1 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels Beginning stocks 507 376 444 722 946 Production 2,183 2,277 2,481 2,547 2,302 Imports 68 92 95 103 95 Total supply 2,757 2,746 3,020 3,373 3,343 Domestic Food 883 891 914 907 905 Seed 103 102 92 81 91 Feed & residual 154 308 251 397 300 Domestic use 1,140 1,301 1,257 1,384 1,296 Exports 1,241 1,002 1,040 1,042 1,050 Total disappearance 2,381 2,302 2,298 2,427 2,346 Ending stocks 376 444 722 946 997 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat by class: Supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Marketing year Hard Hard Soft White Durum Total beginning June 1 red red red winter spring winter ------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1998/99: 2/ Beginning stocks 307 220 80 90 26 722 Production 1,179 486 443 301 138 2,547 Imports 1 58 0 10 33 103 Total supply 1,487 765 523 401 197 3,373 Domestic use 599 284 282 116 103 1,384 Exports 453 247 105 198 40 1,042 Total disappearance 1,052 532 387 314 143 2,427 Ending stocks 435 233 136 87 55 946 1999/2000: 3/ Beginning stocks 435 233 136 87 55 946 Production 1,055 448 453 247 99 2,302 Imports 1 55 0 7 32 95 Total supply 1,491 736 589 341 186 3,343 Domestic use 539 294 283 96 84 1,296 Exports 485 215 160 150 40 1,050 Total disappearance 1,024 510 443 246 124 2,346 Ending stocks 467 226 147 94 63 997 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Includes flour and products imported and exported in wheat equivalent units. ERS estimates of domestic use. 2/Estimated. 3/ Projected. END_OF_FILE